joshuachin
2021-10-14
Intel is doomed
Where Will AMD Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后AMD会在哪里？</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":825805209,"tweetId":"825805209","gmtCreate":1634214597305,"gmtModify":1634214597414,"author":{"id":3575284407051997,"idStr":"3575284407051997","authorId":3575284407051997,"authorIdStr":"3575284407051997","name":"joshuachin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":17,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Intel is doomed</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Intel is doomed</p></body></html>","text":"Intel is doomed","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825805209","repostId":1183676192,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1183676192","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634203753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183676192?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 17:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will AMD Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后AMD会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183676192","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nArticle discusses the stock's meteoric rise and the company's ongoing growth.\nComparative r","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Article discusses the stock's meteoric rise and the company's ongoing growth.</li> <li>Comparative roadmaps from AMD, Intel, and Nvidia show that AMD's prospects are strong for the next several years.</li> <li>The stock is being held back by absurdly low guidance and fears about Intel and the article shows why these should not be concerns.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>文章讨论了该股的飞速上涨和公司的持续增长。</li><li>AMD、英特尔和英伟达的比较路线图显示，AMD未来几年的前景强劲。</li><li>该股因低得离谱的指引和对英特尔的担忧而受到拖累，这篇文章展示了为什么这些不应该成为担忧。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)had a great five-year run – from about $2 in early 2016 to over $100 in the last few months. A rather spectacular 50x run. Along the way, many analysts have doubted the company and called an end to AMD's stock run; and there is still a cottage industry of analysts who continue to call an end to AMD’s ascent. For long-term investors, none of the doubting analysts’ prognostications matters as long as the company continues to out-execute its peers. As such, investors should not mind much about catching dips in the stock but focus on the long-term prospects of the company. So, where is AMD likely to be a few years from now?</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）五年来表现出色——从2016年初的约2美元涨到过去几个月的100多美元。相当壮观的50倍跑。一路走来，许多分析师对该公司表示怀疑，并呼吁AMD的股价上涨结束；仍然有一个家庭手工业的分析师继续看涨期权AMD的崛起已经结束。对于长期投资者来说，只要该公司继续超越同行，怀疑分析师的预测都无关紧要。因此，投资者不应太介意逢低买入股票，而应关注公司的长期前景。那么，几年后AMD可能会在哪里呢？</blockquote></p><p> First, let us consider the current stock price of AMD. At the time of writing this article, AMD is trading around $105 with a trailing PE of about 37 and a forward PE of about 34. This valuation seems very low considering AMD’s recent revenue growth as can be seen in the image below.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们考虑一下AMD目前的股价。在撰写本文时，AMD的交易价格约为105美元，追踪市盈率约为37，远期市盈率约为34。考虑到AMD最近的收入增长，这个估值似乎非常低，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba3d157b930a454761b0dbae757ffc69\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q2 2021 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021年第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Where in this market do you get a technology company growing so spectacularly get a low 37 times trailing PE valuation? Why is there such a discount?</p><p><blockquote>在这个市场中，你从哪里得到一家增长如此惊人的科技公司，却获得了37倍的低市盈率估值？为什么会有这样的优惠？</blockquote></p><p> The Company’s low valuation, relative to the growth, is likely due to conservative management guidance and fear that arch-rival Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)will fight back with a vengeance and take market share back from AMD at some point in the future. As far as management guidance goes, note that AMD started 2021 with a revenue growth guidance of 37%. After Q1, the Company updated its guidance to 50% growth. After Q2, the Company updated the growth guidance to 60%. Contrary to management guidance and analyst estimates,as far back as January,<i>Beyond The Hype</i>has indicated that guidance and consensus was, conservatively, light by about 25%! As the year passed, AMD’s prospects have only become stronger.<i>Beyond The Hype</i> now estimates that, during the Q3 earnings release, the Company will beat and raise and update the guidance once again to around 70% growth. The key to note here is that AMD’s guidance practices have been extremely conservative; if not ridiculous. This overly conservative guidance is, unfortunately, suppressing analyst consensus and the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>相对于增长，该公司的估值较低，可能是由于保守的管理层指导以及担心主要竞争对手英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）将在未来某个时候猛烈反击并从AMD手中夺回市场份额。就管理层指导而言，请注意AMD 2021年伊始的收入增长指导为37%。第一季度后，该公司将增长指引更新为50%。第二季度后，该公司将增长指引更新为60%。与管理层的指导和分析师的估计相反，早在一月份，<i>超越炒作</i>已经表明，保守地说，指导和共识减少了约25%！随着时间的推移，AMD的前景只会变得更加强劲。<i>超越炒作</i>现在估计，在第三季度财报发布期间，该公司将再次超越并提高和更新指引至70%左右的增长。这里需要注意的关键是，AMD的指导实践极其保守；如果不是荒谬的话。不幸的是，这种过于保守的指导抑制了分析师的共识和股价。</blockquote></p><p> The second aspect of undervaluation, the fear of Intel, is also largely baseless. Ever since AMD launched its Zen product line, the naysayers have been predicting Intel’s imminent counterattack. We are now five years into Zen, no such counterattack has materialized. Will it change in the foreseeable future?</p><p><blockquote>低估的第二个方面，即对英特尔的担忧，在很大程度上也是毫无根据的。自从AMD推出Zen产品线以来，反对者一直在预测英特尔即将发起反击。我们现在进入禅宗已经五年了，没有这样的反击实现。在可预见的未来，它会改变吗？</blockquote></p><p> To get a long term picture of the company, one needs to compare and contrast its product roadmap with that of its primary competitors Intel and Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA). Unfortunately, roadmaps of these companies are governed by non-disclosure agreements and are not available from the respective companies. However, a considerable amount of information becomes available in bits and pieces through management commentary, leaks, and rumors. The following image shows one such compiled roadmap compiled from credible sources.</p><p><blockquote>为了长期了解该公司，需要将其产品路线图与其主要竞争对手英特尔和英伟达（纳斯达克：NVDA）的产品路线图进行比较和对比。不幸的是，这些公司的路线图受保密协议管辖，并且无法从各自的公司获得。然而，通过管理层的评论、泄密和谣言，大量的信息变得支离破碎。下图显示了一个根据可靠来源编制的路线图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29c2a6575c027adfa12365d988bc0b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 3DCenter.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：3DCenter.org</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is hard to decipher from this image how the products in this roadmap will compare with each other. However, there is a considerable amount of information to go along with these code names in the blogosphere. To make a long story short, the available information suggests that if Intel keeps to its roadmap, it will have somewhat of parity with AMD in laptop and desktop CPUs but will significantly lag AMD when it comes to server and workstation CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>从这张图片中很难解读路线图中的产品将如何相互比较。然而，在博客世界里，有大量的信息伴随着这些代号。长话短说，现有信息表明，如果英特尔坚持其路线图，它将在笔记本电脑和台式机CPU方面与AMD相当，但在服务器和工作站CPU方面将明显落后于AMD。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> How exactly the roadmap plays out over time is almost entirely up to how well the companies will execute. Considering Intel’s process problems and with AMD execution being consistently good, the chances are high that Intel will underperform. Even if Intel does not underperform, the roadmap implies that AMD is likely to continue to increase its share moderately on the client front for years to come and likely to increase its share dramatically on the server front for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，路线图的确切效果几乎完全取决于公司的执行情况。考虑到英特尔的工艺问题以及AMD的执行力一贯良好，英特尔表现不佳的可能性很高。即使英特尔没有表现不佳，路线图也暗示AMD可能会在未来几年继续适度增加其在客户端方面的份额，并可能在未来几年大幅增加其在服务器方面的份额。</blockquote></p><p> On the GPU front, AMD’s competitive position has improved significantly over the last few years. The current Navi2 generation, for example, is highly competitive with Nvidia’s RTX3 generation. Unfortunately for AMD, the Company has been severely supply-limited due to COVID-related and crypto-related demand and has been unable to take advantage of Navi2 relative performance gains. However, in 2022 and 2023, these are no longer likely to be issues and supply should be plentiful. What this implies is that AMD has a significant market share upside looking into 2022 and 2023. In context, AMD’s roadmap is compelling. At the minimum, AMD is likely to hold its own against Nvidia with its Navi3 generation of products. Here again, there is an opportunity for AMD to gain a significant amount of GPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>在GPU方面，AMD的竞争地位在过去几年中显着提高。例如，当前的Navi2一代与Nvidia的RTX3一代具有很强的竞争力。不幸的是，对于AMD来说，由于与COVID相关和与加密货币相关的需求，该公司的供应受到严重限制，并且无法利用Navi2的相对性能提升。然而，在2022年和2023年，这些可能不再是问题，供应应该会充足。这意味着AMD在2022年和2023年的市场份额将大幅上升。在这种背景下，AMD的路线图引人注目。至少，AMD可能会凭借其Navi3一代产品与Nvidia抗衡。在这里，AMD再次有机会获得大量GPU市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> While the roadmap is only till 2023, the implications go well beyond that. It typically takes several quarters for new products to ramp up. So, 2023 products are likely to drive not only 2023 but also 2024 revenues. In the meantime,the hourglass model continues to be the predictor of the future – with AMD fortunes rising and Intel’s and Nvidia’s falling.</p><p><blockquote>虽然路线图只到2023年，但其影响远不止于此。新产品通常需要几个季度才能上市。因此，2023年的产品不仅可能推动2023年的收入，还可能推动2024年的收入。与此同时，沙漏模型仍然是未来的预测者——AMD的财富在上升，而英特尔和英伟达的财富在下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Near Term Acquisition Dragging AMD Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收购拖累AMD股价</b></blockquote></p><p> The acquisition of Xilinx(NASDAQ:XLNX) has been a drag on AMD stock price since the deal was originally announced as AMD significantly overpaid Xilinx investors due to poor deal terms. The arbitrage around the deal has also acted in a way to suppress AMD stock price for an extended period. However, as discussed in an earlier article, this deal is now about to close. Prior to the deal close, Xilinx stock is likely a significantly superior investment to AMD due to the large arbitrage discount on the deal (image below).</p><p><blockquote>自交易最初宣布以来，收购赛灵思（纳斯达克股票代码：XLNX）一直拖累AMD股价，因为由于交易条款不佳，AMD向赛灵思投资者支付了过高的价格。围绕该交易的套利也在很长一段时间内打压了AMD股价。然而，正如之前文章中所讨论的，这笔交易现在即将完成。在交易完成之前，由于交易的套利折扣较大，Xilinx股票的投资可能明显优于AMD（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3b5d58f09a038d7d6c5e84926ee77c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UpNDown</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：UpNDown</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once this deal closes, likely in a matter of a few weeks, the arbitrage action will end, and AMD stock is likely to move more freely without the Xilinx drag. Post Xilinx acquisition, AMD will be a larger company with higher gross margins and more scale and consolidation opportunities for further future earnings leverage.</p><p><blockquote>一旦这笔交易完成（可能在几周内），套利行动将结束，AMD股票可能会在没有赛灵思拖累的情况下更自由地波动。收购Xilinx后，AMD将成为一家规模更大的公司，拥有更高的毛利率以及更多的规模和整合机会，以进一步提高未来的盈利杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks And Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> As discussed above in the context of the roadmap above, AMD is now well situated competitively to continue its strong growth. AMD, within a few years, should have a much bigger chunk of the CPU and GPU markets with progressively higher-margin products. In addition, the Xilinx acquisition provides AMD with considerable new growth opportunities in the datacenter and telecom segments. AMD can also much more widely disperse its x86 and GPU IP through the Xilinx FPGA platform thus meaningfully increasing customer engagement.</p><p><blockquote>正如上文在上述路线图的背景下所讨论的，AMD现在处于有利的竞争地位，可以继续其强劲增长。几年内，AMD应该会凭借利润率逐渐提高的产品在CPU和GPU市场占据更大的份额。此外，收购Xilinx为AMD在数据中心和电信领域提供了可观的新增长机会。AMD还可以通过Xilinx FPGA平台更广泛地分散其x86和GPU IP，从而有意义地提高客户参与度。</blockquote></p><p> The Company, with its IP deal with Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)has now indirectly entered the handset arena. AMD’s Radeon IP has a chance to meaningfully displace Qualcomm Adreno GPUs in the mobile handset market. Considering the large unit potential - 1.6B TAM worldwide - even a small share of this market could meaningfully add to AMD’s fortunes.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过与三星（场外交易代码：SSNLF）的知识产权协议，现已间接进入手机领域。AMD的镭龙IP有机会在手机市场上有意义地取代高通Adreno GPU。考虑到巨大的单位潜力（全球1.6 B TAM），即使该市场的一小部分份额也可能显着增加AMD的财富。</blockquote></p><p> The primary risk to AMD, contrary to popular belief, is not Intel, but its own execution. For the foreseeable future, there is no sign that Intel will overwhelm AMD. The oft-discussed ARM CPUs are also not a meaningful threat to AMD as the likely share of ARM in both server and client markets is likely to be very low, in the single-digit percentage, for many years to come. The Company’s destiny is very much in its own hands. As long as AMD can execute well on the known roadmap, the Company will do well. There could be temporary near-term headwinds as COVID and crypto demand fades. However, even this is not a big concern as the strong growth in other parts of AMD should more than offset any such weakness.</p><p><blockquote>与普遍看法相反，AMD面临的主要风险不是英特尔，而是其自身的执行力。在可预见的未来，没有迹象表明英特尔会压倒AMD。经常讨论的Arm CPU对AMD也不是一个有意义的威胁，因为在未来许多年里，ARM在服务器和客户端市场的份额可能非常低，只有个位数百分比。公司的命运很大程度上掌握在自己手中。只要AMD能够在已知的路线图上执行良好，该公司就会做得很好。随着新冠疫情和加密货币需求的消退，近期可能会出现暂时的阻力。然而，即使这也不是一个大问题，因为AMD其他部门的强劲增长应该足以抵消任何此类弱点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prognosis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预后</b></blockquote></p><p> Considering AMD’s recent growth, market share, and earnings momentum as well as the long term product roadmap, we would argue that analyst consensus (see image below) is absurdly low.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到AMD最近的增长、市场份额和盈利势头以及长期产品路线图，我们认为分析师的共识（见下图）低得离谱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1f4d2491479d339ce924353cfd2f8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The analyst consensus is understandable given the management guidance. As the sell-side does not deviate much from spoon-fed management guidance, the consensus reflects the low 20% growth rate that the management has been guiding. As such, thanks to heavily sandbagged guidance, the company is likely to be in a beat-and-raise mode for many quarters to come – even if the company were to grossly underperform. However, given the product and competitive vectors discussed above, there is not much reason to think that the company will underperform. Earnings estimates are likely to jump substantially during the next several quarters including Q3 2021. While predicting the future especially with a choppy macro is risky, it is difficult to see AMD growing revenue less than 30% for the next few years. At that rate of revenue growth, earnings should accelerate much more, thanks to the leveraged nature of the semiconductor business model. Considering the revenue growth and earnings leverage, well over 100% growth in AMD stock over the next five years is likely. With strong growth in view,<i>Beyond The Hype</i> considers AMD the best semiconductor bet in the market today.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于管理层的指导，分析师的共识是可以理解的。由于卖方与管理层的指导没有太大偏差，因此共识反映了管理层一直指导的20%的低增长率。因此，由于严格的指导，该公司可能会在未来许多季度处于击败并加注模式——即使该公司的表现严重不佳。然而，考虑到上面讨论的产品和竞争载体，没有太多理由认为该公司会表现不佳。包括2021年第三季度在内的未来几个季度，盈利预期可能会大幅跃升。虽然预测未来（尤其是在宏观波动的情况下）存在风险，但很难看到AMD未来几年收入增长低于30%。按照这样的收入增长率，由于半导体商业模式的杠杆性质，盈利应该会加速更多。考虑到收入增长和盈利杠杆，未来五年AMD股票的增长可能会远远超过100%。鉴于增长强劲，<i>超越炒作</i>认为AMD是当今市场上最好的半导体选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will AMD Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后AMD会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will AMD Be In 5 Years?<blockquote>5年后AMD会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 17:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Article discusses the stock's meteoric rise and the company's ongoing growth.</li> <li>Comparative roadmaps from AMD, Intel, and Nvidia show that AMD's prospects are strong for the next several years.</li> <li>The stock is being held back by absurdly low guidance and fears about Intel and the article shows why these should not be concerns.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>文章讨论了该股的飞速上涨和公司的持续增长。</li><li>AMD、英特尔和英伟达的比较路线图显示，AMD未来几年的前景强劲。</li><li>该股因低得离谱的指引和对英特尔的担忧而受到拖累，这篇文章展示了为什么这些不应该成为担忧。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JHVEPhoto/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)had a great five-year run – from about $2 in early 2016 to over $100 in the last few months. A rather spectacular 50x run. Along the way, many analysts have doubted the company and called an end to AMD's stock run; and there is still a cottage industry of analysts who continue to call an end to AMD’s ascent. For long-term investors, none of the doubting analysts’ prognostications matters as long as the company continues to out-execute its peers. As such, investors should not mind much about catching dips in the stock but focus on the long-term prospects of the company. So, where is AMD likely to be a few years from now?</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）五年来表现出色——从2016年初的约2美元涨到过去几个月的100多美元。相当壮观的50倍跑。一路走来，许多分析师对该公司表示怀疑，并呼吁AMD的股价上涨结束；仍然有一个家庭手工业的分析师继续看涨期权AMD的崛起已经结束。对于长期投资者来说，只要该公司继续超越同行，怀疑分析师的预测都无关紧要。因此，投资者不应太介意逢低买入股票，而应关注公司的长期前景。那么，几年后AMD可能会在哪里呢？</blockquote></p><p> First, let us consider the current stock price of AMD. At the time of writing this article, AMD is trading around $105 with a trailing PE of about 37 and a forward PE of about 34. This valuation seems very low considering AMD’s recent revenue growth as can be seen in the image below.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们考虑一下AMD目前的股价。在撰写本文时，AMD的交易价格约为105美元，追踪市盈率约为37，远期市盈率约为34。考虑到AMD最近的收入增长，这个估值似乎非常低，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba3d157b930a454761b0dbae757ffc69\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: AMD Q2 2021 earnings presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD 2021年第二季度收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Where in this market do you get a technology company growing so spectacularly get a low 37 times trailing PE valuation? Why is there such a discount?</p><p><blockquote>在这个市场中，你从哪里得到一家增长如此惊人的科技公司，却获得了37倍的低市盈率估值？为什么会有这样的优惠？</blockquote></p><p> The Company’s low valuation, relative to the growth, is likely due to conservative management guidance and fear that arch-rival Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)will fight back with a vengeance and take market share back from AMD at some point in the future. As far as management guidance goes, note that AMD started 2021 with a revenue growth guidance of 37%. After Q1, the Company updated its guidance to 50% growth. After Q2, the Company updated the growth guidance to 60%. Contrary to management guidance and analyst estimates,as far back as January,<i>Beyond The Hype</i>has indicated that guidance and consensus was, conservatively, light by about 25%! As the year passed, AMD’s prospects have only become stronger.<i>Beyond The Hype</i> now estimates that, during the Q3 earnings release, the Company will beat and raise and update the guidance once again to around 70% growth. The key to note here is that AMD’s guidance practices have been extremely conservative; if not ridiculous. This overly conservative guidance is, unfortunately, suppressing analyst consensus and the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>相对于增长，该公司的估值较低，可能是由于保守的管理层指导以及担心主要竞争对手英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）将在未来某个时候猛烈反击并从AMD手中夺回市场份额。就管理层指导而言，请注意AMD 2021年伊始的收入增长指导为37%。第一季度后，该公司将增长指引更新为50%。第二季度后，该公司将增长指引更新为60%。与管理层的指导和分析师的估计相反，早在一月份，<i>超越炒作</i>已经表明，保守地说，指导和共识减少了约25%！随着时间的推移，AMD的前景只会变得更加强劲。<i>超越炒作</i>现在估计，在第三季度财报发布期间，该公司将再次超越并提高和更新指引至70%左右的增长。这里需要注意的关键是，AMD的指导实践极其保守；如果不是荒谬的话。不幸的是，这种过于保守的指导抑制了分析师的共识和股价。</blockquote></p><p> The second aspect of undervaluation, the fear of Intel, is also largely baseless. Ever since AMD launched its Zen product line, the naysayers have been predicting Intel’s imminent counterattack. We are now five years into Zen, no such counterattack has materialized. Will it change in the foreseeable future?</p><p><blockquote>低估的第二个方面，即对英特尔的担忧，在很大程度上也是毫无根据的。自从AMD推出Zen产品线以来，反对者一直在预测英特尔即将发起反击。我们现在进入禅宗已经五年了，没有这样的反击实现。在可预见的未来，它会改变吗？</blockquote></p><p> To get a long term picture of the company, one needs to compare and contrast its product roadmap with that of its primary competitors Intel and Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA). Unfortunately, roadmaps of these companies are governed by non-disclosure agreements and are not available from the respective companies. However, a considerable amount of information becomes available in bits and pieces through management commentary, leaks, and rumors. The following image shows one such compiled roadmap compiled from credible sources.</p><p><blockquote>为了长期了解该公司，需要将其产品路线图与其主要竞争对手英特尔和英伟达（纳斯达克：NVDA）的产品路线图进行比较和对比。不幸的是，这些公司的路线图受保密协议管辖，并且无法从各自的公司获得。然而，通过管理层的评论、泄密和谣言，大量的信息变得支离破碎。下图显示了一个根据可靠来源编制的路线图。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e29c2a6575c027adfa12365d988bc0b2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"588\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: 3DCenter.org</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：3DCenter.org</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is hard to decipher from this image how the products in this roadmap will compare with each other. However, there is a considerable amount of information to go along with these code names in the blogosphere. To make a long story short, the available information suggests that if Intel keeps to its roadmap, it will have somewhat of parity with AMD in laptop and desktop CPUs but will significantly lag AMD when it comes to server and workstation CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>从这张图片中很难解读路线图中的产品将如何相互比较。然而，在博客世界里，有大量的信息伴随着这些代号。长话短说，现有信息表明，如果英特尔坚持其路线图，它将在笔记本电脑和台式机CPU方面与AMD相当，但在服务器和工作站CPU方面将明显落后于AMD。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> How exactly the roadmap plays out over time is almost entirely up to how well the companies will execute. Considering Intel’s process problems and with AMD execution being consistently good, the chances are high that Intel will underperform. Even if Intel does not underperform, the roadmap implies that AMD is likely to continue to increase its share moderately on the client front for years to come and likely to increase its share dramatically on the server front for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，路线图的确切效果几乎完全取决于公司的执行情况。考虑到英特尔的工艺问题以及AMD的执行力一贯良好，英特尔表现不佳的可能性很高。即使英特尔没有表现不佳，路线图也暗示AMD可能会在未来几年继续适度增加其在客户端方面的份额，并可能在未来几年大幅增加其在服务器方面的份额。</blockquote></p><p> On the GPU front, AMD’s competitive position has improved significantly over the last few years. The current Navi2 generation, for example, is highly competitive with Nvidia’s RTX3 generation. Unfortunately for AMD, the Company has been severely supply-limited due to COVID-related and crypto-related demand and has been unable to take advantage of Navi2 relative performance gains. However, in 2022 and 2023, these are no longer likely to be issues and supply should be plentiful. What this implies is that AMD has a significant market share upside looking into 2022 and 2023. In context, AMD’s roadmap is compelling. At the minimum, AMD is likely to hold its own against Nvidia with its Navi3 generation of products. Here again, there is an opportunity for AMD to gain a significant amount of GPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>在GPU方面，AMD的竞争地位在过去几年中显着提高。例如，当前的Navi2一代与Nvidia的RTX3一代具有很强的竞争力。不幸的是，对于AMD来说，由于与COVID相关和与加密货币相关的需求，该公司的供应受到严重限制，并且无法利用Navi2的相对性能提升。然而，在2022年和2023年，这些可能不再是问题，供应应该会充足。这意味着AMD在2022年和2023年的市场份额将大幅上升。在这种背景下，AMD的路线图引人注目。至少，AMD可能会凭借其Navi3一代产品与Nvidia抗衡。在这里，AMD再次有机会获得大量GPU市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> While the roadmap is only till 2023, the implications go well beyond that. It typically takes several quarters for new products to ramp up. So, 2023 products are likely to drive not only 2023 but also 2024 revenues. In the meantime,the hourglass model continues to be the predictor of the future – with AMD fortunes rising and Intel’s and Nvidia’s falling.</p><p><blockquote>虽然路线图只到2023年，但其影响远不止于此。新产品通常需要几个季度才能上市。因此，2023年的产品不仅可能推动2023年的收入，还可能推动2024年的收入。与此同时，沙漏模型仍然是未来的预测者——AMD的财富在上升，而英特尔和英伟达的财富在下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Near Term Acquisition Dragging AMD Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>近期收购拖累AMD股价</b></blockquote></p><p> The acquisition of Xilinx(NASDAQ:XLNX) has been a drag on AMD stock price since the deal was originally announced as AMD significantly overpaid Xilinx investors due to poor deal terms. The arbitrage around the deal has also acted in a way to suppress AMD stock price for an extended period. However, as discussed in an earlier article, this deal is now about to close. Prior to the deal close, Xilinx stock is likely a significantly superior investment to AMD due to the large arbitrage discount on the deal (image below).</p><p><blockquote>自交易最初宣布以来，收购赛灵思（纳斯达克股票代码：XLNX）一直拖累AMD股价，因为由于交易条款不佳，AMD向赛灵思投资者支付了过高的价格。围绕该交易的套利也在很长一段时间内打压了AMD股价。然而，正如之前文章中所讨论的，这笔交易现在即将完成。在交易完成之前，由于交易的套利折扣较大，Xilinx股票的投资可能明显优于AMD（如下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3b5d58f09a038d7d6c5e84926ee77c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"171\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: UpNDown</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：UpNDown</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once this deal closes, likely in a matter of a few weeks, the arbitrage action will end, and AMD stock is likely to move more freely without the Xilinx drag. Post Xilinx acquisition, AMD will be a larger company with higher gross margins and more scale and consolidation opportunities for further future earnings leverage.</p><p><blockquote>一旦这笔交易完成（可能在几周内），套利行动将结束，AMD股票可能会在没有赛灵思拖累的情况下更自由地波动。收购Xilinx后，AMD将成为一家规模更大的公司，拥有更高的毛利率以及更多的规模和整合机会，以进一步提高未来的盈利杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks And Opportunities</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> As discussed above in the context of the roadmap above, AMD is now well situated competitively to continue its strong growth. AMD, within a few years, should have a much bigger chunk of the CPU and GPU markets with progressively higher-margin products. In addition, the Xilinx acquisition provides AMD with considerable new growth opportunities in the datacenter and telecom segments. AMD can also much more widely disperse its x86 and GPU IP through the Xilinx FPGA platform thus meaningfully increasing customer engagement.</p><p><blockquote>正如上文在上述路线图的背景下所讨论的，AMD现在处于有利的竞争地位，可以继续其强劲增长。几年内，AMD应该会凭借利润率逐渐提高的产品在CPU和GPU市场占据更大的份额。此外，收购Xilinx为AMD在数据中心和电信领域提供了可观的新增长机会。AMD还可以通过Xilinx FPGA平台更广泛地分散其x86和GPU IP，从而有意义地提高客户参与度。</blockquote></p><p> The Company, with its IP deal with Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)has now indirectly entered the handset arena. AMD’s Radeon IP has a chance to meaningfully displace Qualcomm Adreno GPUs in the mobile handset market. Considering the large unit potential - 1.6B TAM worldwide - even a small share of this market could meaningfully add to AMD’s fortunes.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过与三星（场外交易代码：SSNLF）的知识产权协议，现已间接进入手机领域。AMD的镭龙IP有机会在手机市场上有意义地取代高通Adreno GPU。考虑到巨大的单位潜力（全球1.6 B TAM），即使该市场的一小部分份额也可能显着增加AMD的财富。</blockquote></p><p> The primary risk to AMD, contrary to popular belief, is not Intel, but its own execution. For the foreseeable future, there is no sign that Intel will overwhelm AMD. The oft-discussed ARM CPUs are also not a meaningful threat to AMD as the likely share of ARM in both server and client markets is likely to be very low, in the single-digit percentage, for many years to come. The Company’s destiny is very much in its own hands. As long as AMD can execute well on the known roadmap, the Company will do well. There could be temporary near-term headwinds as COVID and crypto demand fades. However, even this is not a big concern as the strong growth in other parts of AMD should more than offset any such weakness.</p><p><blockquote>与普遍看法相反，AMD面临的主要风险不是英特尔，而是其自身的执行力。在可预见的未来，没有迹象表明英特尔会压倒AMD。经常讨论的Arm CPU对AMD也不是一个有意义的威胁，因为在未来许多年里，ARM在服务器和客户端市场的份额可能非常低，只有个位数百分比。公司的命运很大程度上掌握在自己手中。只要AMD能够在已知的路线图上执行良好，该公司就会做得很好。随着新冠疫情和加密货币需求的消退，近期可能会出现暂时的阻力。然而，即使这也不是一个大问题，因为AMD其他部门的强劲增长应该足以抵消任何此类弱点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prognosis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预后</b></blockquote></p><p> Considering AMD’s recent growth, market share, and earnings momentum as well as the long term product roadmap, we would argue that analyst consensus (see image below) is absurdly low.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到AMD最近的增长、市场份额和盈利势头以及长期产品路线图，我们认为分析师的共识（见下图）低得离谱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1f4d2491479d339ce924353cfd2f8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The analyst consensus is understandable given the management guidance. As the sell-side does not deviate much from spoon-fed management guidance, the consensus reflects the low 20% growth rate that the management has been guiding. As such, thanks to heavily sandbagged guidance, the company is likely to be in a beat-and-raise mode for many quarters to come – even if the company were to grossly underperform. However, given the product and competitive vectors discussed above, there is not much reason to think that the company will underperform. Earnings estimates are likely to jump substantially during the next several quarters including Q3 2021. While predicting the future especially with a choppy macro is risky, it is difficult to see AMD growing revenue less than 30% for the next few years. At that rate of revenue growth, earnings should accelerate much more, thanks to the leveraged nature of the semiconductor business model. Considering the revenue growth and earnings leverage, well over 100% growth in AMD stock over the next five years is likely. With strong growth in view,<i>Beyond The Hype</i> considers AMD the best semiconductor bet in the market today.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于管理层的指导，分析师的共识是可以理解的。由于卖方与管理层的指导没有太大偏差，因此共识反映了管理层一直指导的20%的低增长率。因此，由于严格的指导，该公司可能会在未来许多季度处于击败并加注模式——即使该公司的表现严重不佳。然而，考虑到上面讨论的产品和竞争载体，没有太多理由认为该公司会表现不佳。包括2021年第三季度在内的未来几个季度，盈利预期可能会大幅跃升。虽然预测未来（尤其是在宏观波动的情况下）存在风险，但很难看到AMD未来几年收入增长低于30%。按照这样的收入增长率，由于半导体商业模式的杠杆性质，盈利应该会加速更多。考虑到收入增长和盈利杠杆，未来五年AMD股票的增长可能会远远超过100%。鉴于增长强劲，<i>超越炒作</i>认为AMD是当今市场上最好的半导体选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459745-amd-stock-5-years\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459745-amd-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183676192","content_text":"Summary\n\nArticle discusses the stock's meteoric rise and the company's ongoing growth.\nComparative roadmaps from AMD, Intel, and Nvidia show that AMD's prospects are strong for the next several years.\nThe stock is being held back by absurdly low guidance and fears about Intel and the article shows why these should not be concerns.\n\nJHVEPhoto/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nAdvanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)had a great five-year run – from about $2 in early 2016 to over $100 in the last few months. A rather spectacular 50x run. Along the way, many analysts have doubted the company and called an end to AMD's stock run; and there is still a cottage industry of analysts who continue to call an end to AMD’s ascent. For long-term investors, none of the doubting analysts’ prognostications matters as long as the company continues to out-execute its peers. As such, investors should not mind much about catching dips in the stock but focus on the long-term prospects of the company. So, where is AMD likely to be a few years from now?\nFirst, let us consider the current stock price of AMD. At the time of writing this article, AMD is trading around $105 with a trailing PE of about 37 and a forward PE of about 34. This valuation seems very low considering AMD’s recent revenue growth as can be seen in the image below.\nSource: AMD Q2 2021 earnings presentation\nWhere in this market do you get a technology company growing so spectacularly get a low 37 times trailing PE valuation? Why is there such a discount?\nThe Company’s low valuation, relative to the growth, is likely due to conservative management guidance and fear that arch-rival Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)will fight back with a vengeance and take market share back from AMD at some point in the future. As far as management guidance goes, note that AMD started 2021 with a revenue growth guidance of 37%. After Q1, the Company updated its guidance to 50% growth. After Q2, the Company updated the growth guidance to 60%. Contrary to management guidance and analyst estimates,as far back as January,Beyond The Hypehas indicated that guidance and consensus was, conservatively, light by about 25%! As the year passed, AMD’s prospects have only become stronger.Beyond The Hype now estimates that, during the Q3 earnings release, the Company will beat and raise and update the guidance once again to around 70% growth. The key to note here is that AMD’s guidance practices have been extremely conservative; if not ridiculous. This overly conservative guidance is, unfortunately, suppressing analyst consensus and the stock price.\nThe second aspect of undervaluation, the fear of Intel, is also largely baseless. Ever since AMD launched its Zen product line, the naysayers have been predicting Intel’s imminent counterattack. We are now five years into Zen, no such counterattack has materialized. Will it change in the foreseeable future?\nTo get a long term picture of the company, one needs to compare and contrast its product roadmap with that of its primary competitors Intel and Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA). Unfortunately, roadmaps of these companies are governed by non-disclosure agreements and are not available from the respective companies. However, a considerable amount of information becomes available in bits and pieces through management commentary, leaks, and rumors. The following image shows one such compiled roadmap compiled from credible sources.\nSource: 3DCenter.org\nIt is hard to decipher from this image how the products in this roadmap will compare with each other. However, there is a considerable amount of information to go along with these code names in the blogosphere. To make a long story short, the available information suggests that if Intel keeps to its roadmap, it will have somewhat of parity with AMD in laptop and desktop CPUs but will significantly lag AMD when it comes to server and workstation CPUs.\nHow exactly the roadmap plays out over time is almost entirely up to how well the companies will execute. Considering Intel’s process problems and with AMD execution being consistently good, the chances are high that Intel will underperform. Even if Intel does not underperform, the roadmap implies that AMD is likely to continue to increase its share moderately on the client front for years to come and likely to increase its share dramatically on the server front for years to come.\nOn the GPU front, AMD’s competitive position has improved significantly over the last few years. The current Navi2 generation, for example, is highly competitive with Nvidia’s RTX3 generation. Unfortunately for AMD, the Company has been severely supply-limited due to COVID-related and crypto-related demand and has been unable to take advantage of Navi2 relative performance gains. However, in 2022 and 2023, these are no longer likely to be issues and supply should be plentiful. What this implies is that AMD has a significant market share upside looking into 2022 and 2023. In context, AMD’s roadmap is compelling. At the minimum, AMD is likely to hold its own against Nvidia with its Navi3 generation of products. Here again, there is an opportunity for AMD to gain a significant amount of GPU market share.\nWhile the roadmap is only till 2023, the implications go well beyond that. It typically takes several quarters for new products to ramp up. So, 2023 products are likely to drive not only 2023 but also 2024 revenues. In the meantime,the hourglass model continues to be the predictor of the future – with AMD fortunes rising and Intel’s and Nvidia’s falling.\nNear Term Acquisition Dragging AMD Stock\nThe acquisition of Xilinx(NASDAQ:XLNX) has been a drag on AMD stock price since the deal was originally announced as AMD significantly overpaid Xilinx investors due to poor deal terms. The arbitrage around the deal has also acted in a way to suppress AMD stock price for an extended period. However, as discussed in an earlier article, this deal is now about to close. Prior to the deal close, Xilinx stock is likely a significantly superior investment to AMD due to the large arbitrage discount on the deal (image below).\nSource: UpNDown\nOnce this deal closes, likely in a matter of a few weeks, the arbitrage action will end, and AMD stock is likely to move more freely without the Xilinx drag. Post Xilinx acquisition, AMD will be a larger company with higher gross margins and more scale and consolidation opportunities for further future earnings leverage.\nRisks And Opportunities\nAs discussed above in the context of the roadmap above, AMD is now well situated competitively to continue its strong growth. AMD, within a few years, should have a much bigger chunk of the CPU and GPU markets with progressively higher-margin products. In addition, the Xilinx acquisition provides AMD with considerable new growth opportunities in the datacenter and telecom segments. AMD can also much more widely disperse its x86 and GPU IP through the Xilinx FPGA platform thus meaningfully increasing customer engagement.\nThe Company, with its IP deal with Samsung(OTC:SSNLF)has now indirectly entered the handset arena. AMD’s Radeon IP has a chance to meaningfully displace Qualcomm Adreno GPUs in the mobile handset market. Considering the large unit potential - 1.6B TAM worldwide - even a small share of this market could meaningfully add to AMD’s fortunes.\nThe primary risk to AMD, contrary to popular belief, is not Intel, but its own execution. For the foreseeable future, there is no sign that Intel will overwhelm AMD. The oft-discussed ARM CPUs are also not a meaningful threat to AMD as the likely share of ARM in both server and client markets is likely to be very low, in the single-digit percentage, for many years to come. The Company’s destiny is very much in its own hands. As long as AMD can execute well on the known roadmap, the Company will do well. There could be temporary near-term headwinds as COVID and crypto demand fades. However, even this is not a big concern as the strong growth in other parts of AMD should more than offset any such weakness.\nPrognosis\nConsidering AMD’s recent growth, market share, and earnings momentum as well as the long term product roadmap, we would argue that analyst consensus (see image below) is absurdly low.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nThe analyst consensus is understandable given the management guidance. As the sell-side does not deviate much from spoon-fed management guidance, the consensus reflects the low 20% growth rate that the management has been guiding. As such, thanks to heavily sandbagged guidance, the company is likely to be in a beat-and-raise mode for many quarters to come – even if the company were to grossly underperform. However, given the product and competitive vectors discussed above, there is not much reason to think that the company will underperform. Earnings estimates are likely to jump substantially during the next several quarters including Q3 2021. While predicting the future especially with a choppy macro is risky, it is difficult to see AMD growing revenue less than 30% for the next few years. At that rate of revenue growth, earnings should accelerate much more, thanks to the leveraged nature of the semiconductor business model. Considering the revenue growth and earnings leverage, well over 100% growth in AMD stock over the next five years is likely. With strong growth in view,Beyond The Hype considers AMD the best semiconductor bet in the market today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2206,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["INTC"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":13,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/825805209"}
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