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2021-10-07

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Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面变化可能导致股市进一步走低</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":823343355,"tweetId":"823343355","gmtCreate":1633590123688,"gmtModify":1633590241419,"author":{"id":3582016577975526,"idStr":"3582016577975526","authorId":3582016577975526,"authorIdStr":"3582016577975526","name":"ivanlam","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b69aadeaeb7dadd4cee48a1d48771644","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":19,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>[微笑]&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>[微笑]&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"[微笑]","highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823343355","repostId":1149738417,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149738417","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633588946,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149738417?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-07 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面变化可能导致股市进一步走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149738417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nConsensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</li> <li>There is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.</li> <li>The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</li> </ul> This story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.<blockquote><ul><li>普遍的盈利预期现在已经降低，更令人担忧的是，现在盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</li><li>现在，未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。</li><li>市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是重要的支撑位。</li></ul>本文最初于10月2日为SA市场服务Reading The Markets的成员发布。截至10月6日已更新。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.<blockquote>标普500刚刚经历了一段时间以来最糟糕的一个月，该指数在9月份下跌了约4.8%。这是自2020年3月新冠疫情开始以来的最大跌幅。到目前为止，下滑似乎与不断变化的经济环境有关，经济环境以全球经济增长放缓为中心，根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型，美国第三季度GDP增长率为1.3%。这与许多经济学家和分析师在本季度开始时最初预测的7%相去甚远。</blockquote> Exhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.<blockquote>图表1：GDPNow预测美国第三季度仅增长1.3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b7001a14874f54871970ba975bb04c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> As highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.<blockquote>正如在多个场合强调的那样，有明显的迹象表明GDP增长正在减速。既然人们普遍认为第三季度GDP增长将远低于预期，我们就相信GDP增长放缓最终会影响盈利预期。如前所述，我们开始看到模型中的盈利预期下降，而共识预期开始停滞。这些普遍的盈利预期现在已经降低，更令人担忧的是，现在盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</blockquote> Worse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&amp;P 500 drawdowns.<blockquote>更糟糕的是，现在围绕未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。根据历史趋势，盈利预测不确定性的增加似乎与VIX指数飙升和标普500下降高度相关。</blockquote> Downward Revisions<blockquote>向下修正</blockquote> Consensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&amp;P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&amp;P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.<blockquote>未来12个月(NTM)的普遍盈利预期本周从212.92美元降至212.75美元。截至10月6日，这些预估目前为211.97美元，略有下降，但自2020年10月以来首次大幅下降。但更重要的是，过去一周标普500下调盈利的公司数量升至209家；这是自疫情开始以来的最高读数。与此同时，上调评级的股票数量降至225只，差价仅为16只。利差的变化也可能与标普500指数本身的同比变化高度相关。盈利修正价差的下降与2018年初的恶化类似。</blockquote> Exhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.<blockquote>图表2：盈利向下修正迅速上升，而向上修正则在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2606205081a33afb3a743659b4604f60\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Also, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.<blockquote>此外，也许更重要的是，正如这些预测的标准差所表明的那样，分析师似乎对盈利预测的未来路径越来越不确定。未来18个月盈利预测的标准差稳步上升。目前为15.1%，高于2月份12.9%的低点。值得注意的是，新冠疫情后的盈利标准差远高于新冠疫情前。正如VIX指数所指出的，盈利预测不确定性的上升似乎与股市波动性的上升有关。</blockquote> Increasing Uncertainty<blockquote>不确定性增加</blockquote> Starting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.<blockquote>从2010年开始，标准差下降与VIX指数下降相关，而标准差增加则导致该指数飙升。</blockquote> Exhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index<blockquote>图表3：盈利预测的不确定性似乎与VIX指数高度相关</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11acbc64c5f8a3ff60ca13892f1cd90\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> This current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.<blockquote>当前时期似乎再次类似于2018年，VIX和盈利不确定性都在2018年1月飙升，但更重要的是，在2018年5月出现分化，VIX下跌并保持在低位，而盈利不确定性则在上升。直到2018年10月，VIX才开始飙升。目前，盈利不确定性和VIX一直在下降，直到2021年2月，盈利不确定性转高，VIX继续走低。然而，有迹象表明，随着我们进入财报季，VIX指数在10月份再次开始走高。</blockquote> Exhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.<blockquote>图表4：随着VIX下跌，盈利不确定性正在上升。上一次发生这种情况是在2018年，VIX最终赶上了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99852382b26fc00adfaee8fb79a97694\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Multiple Contraction<blockquote>多次收缩</blockquote> Additionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&amp;P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.<blockquote>此外，本周标普500的市盈率一度跌破20.5的关键水平。市盈率(NTM)一直在稳步下降，但始终在20.5找到支撑。本周，它跌破了这一水平，并在本周结束时收盘。这可能是市场的转折点，表明未来几周比率将进一步收缩。这是有道理的，特别是如果盈利下调和不确定性加剧的话。</blockquote> Exhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.<blockquote>图表5：市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是重要支撑位。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69b122c9e13e4026df2fd5b5af52b52\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&amp;P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.<blockquote>这确实开始解释为什么我们开始看到标普500指数回升的波动性。由于几个不断变化的基本面因素，包括美联储在货币政策上不断变化的立场，这可能对未来的股市不那么友好。再加上盈利预期的真正根本性转变，这可能是市场自2020年春季以来的首次真正考验。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面变化可能导致股市进一步走低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTactical Update: Fundamental Shifts May Send The Stock Market Even Lower<blockquote>战术更新：基本面变化可能导致股市进一步走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-07 14:42\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.</li> <li>There is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.</li> <li>The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.</li> </ul> This story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.<blockquote><ul><li>普遍的盈利预期现在已经降低，更令人担忧的是，现在盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</li><li>现在，未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。</li><li>市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是重要的支撑位。</li></ul>本文最初于10月2日为SA市场服务Reading The Markets的成员发布。截至10月6日已更新。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.<blockquote>标普500刚刚经历了一段时间以来最糟糕的一个月，该指数在9月份下跌了约4.8%。这是自2020年3月新冠疫情开始以来的最大跌幅。到目前为止，下滑似乎与不断变化的经济环境有关，经济环境以全球经济增长放缓为中心，根据亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型，美国第三季度GDP增长率为1.3%。这与许多经济学家和分析师在本季度开始时最初预测的7%相去甚远。</blockquote> Exhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.<blockquote>图表1：GDPNow预测美国第三季度仅增长1.3%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b7001a14874f54871970ba975bb04c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> As highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.<blockquote>正如在多个场合强调的那样，有明显的迹象表明GDP增长正在减速。既然人们普遍认为第三季度GDP增长将远低于预期，我们就相信GDP增长放缓最终会影响盈利预期。如前所述，我们开始看到模型中的盈利预期下降，而共识预期开始停滞。这些普遍的盈利预期现在已经降低，更令人担忧的是，现在盈利下调的公司数量正在增加。</blockquote> Worse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&amp;P 500 drawdowns.<blockquote>更糟糕的是，现在围绕未来盈利预测的不确定性越来越大。根据历史趋势，盈利预测不确定性的增加似乎与VIX指数飙升和标普500下降高度相关。</blockquote> Downward Revisions<blockquote>向下修正</blockquote> Consensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&amp;P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&amp;P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.<blockquote>未来12个月(NTM)的普遍盈利预期本周从212.92美元降至212.75美元。截至10月6日，这些预估目前为211.97美元，略有下降，但自2020年10月以来首次大幅下降。但更重要的是，过去一周标普500下调盈利的公司数量升至209家；这是自疫情开始以来的最高读数。与此同时，上调评级的股票数量降至225只，差价仅为16只。利差的变化也可能与标普500指数本身的同比变化高度相关。盈利修正价差的下降与2018年初的恶化类似。</blockquote> Exhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.<blockquote>图表2：盈利向下修正迅速上升，而向上修正则在下降。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2606205081a33afb3a743659b4604f60\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Also, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.<blockquote>此外，也许更重要的是，正如这些预测的标准差所表明的那样，分析师似乎对盈利预测的未来路径越来越不确定。未来18个月盈利预测的标准差稳步上升。目前为15.1%，高于2月份12.9%的低点。值得注意的是，新冠疫情后的盈利标准差远高于新冠疫情前。正如VIX指数所指出的，盈利预测不确定性的上升似乎与股市波动性的上升有关。</blockquote> Increasing Uncertainty<blockquote>不确定性增加</blockquote> Starting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.<blockquote>从2010年开始，标准差下降与VIX指数下降相关，而标准差增加则导致该指数飙升。</blockquote> Exhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index<blockquote>图表3：盈利预测的不确定性似乎与VIX指数高度相关</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11acbc64c5f8a3ff60ca13892f1cd90\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> This current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.<blockquote>当前时期似乎再次类似于2018年，VIX和盈利不确定性都在2018年1月飙升，但更重要的是，在2018年5月出现分化，VIX下跌并保持在低位，而盈利不确定性则在上升。直到2018年10月，VIX才开始飙升。目前，盈利不确定性和VIX一直在下降，直到2021年2月，盈利不确定性转高，VIX继续走低。然而，有迹象表明，随着我们进入财报季，VIX指数在10月份再次开始走高。</blockquote> Exhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.<blockquote>图表4：随着VIX下跌，盈利不确定性正在上升。上一次发生这种情况是在2018年，VIX最终赶上了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99852382b26fc00adfaee8fb79a97694\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Multiple Contraction<blockquote>多次收缩</blockquote> Additionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&amp;P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.<blockquote>此外，本周标普500的市盈率一度跌破20.5的关键水平。市盈率(NTM)一直在稳步下降，但始终在20.5找到支撑。本周，它跌破了这一水平，并在本周结束时收盘。这可能是市场的转折点，表明未来几周比率将进一步收缩。这是有道理的，特别是如果盈利下调和不确定性加剧的话。</blockquote> Exhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.<blockquote>图表5：市盈率（NTM）自2020年春季以来首次跌破20.5，一直是重要支撑位。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69b122c9e13e4026df2fd5b5af52b52\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> It really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&amp;P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.<blockquote>这确实开始解释为什么我们开始看到标普500指数回升的波动性。由于几个不断变化的基本面因素，包括美联储在货币政策上不断变化的立场，这可能对未来的股市不那么友好。再加上盈利预期的真正根本性转变，这可能是市场自2020年春季以来的首次真正考验。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458687-tactical-update-fundamental-shifts-may-send-the-stock-market-even-lower\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458687-tactical-update-fundamental-shifts-may-send-the-stock-market-even-lower","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149738417","content_text":"Summary\n\nConsensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.\nThere is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward.\nThe PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.\n\nThis story was originally published on October 2 for members of Reading The Markets, an SA Marketplace service. It has been updated as of October 6.\nThe S&P 500 just had its worst month in some time, with the index falling about 4.8% in September. It has been the steepest decline since the Covid pandemic began in March 2020. To this point, the slide appears to be in connection with a changing economic environment, which has been centered around slowing global growth, with the US GDP growth for the third quarter tracking at 1.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model. A far cry from the 7% projection that was initially forecast by many economists and analysts when the quarter began.\nExhibit 1: GDPNow is forecasting just 1.3% third-quarter US growth.\n\nAs highlighted on multiple occasions, there has been a clear sign that would suggest GDP growth was decelerating. Now that it is widely accepted that third-quarter GDP growth will be much slower than expected, it has become our belief that slowing GDP growth would eventually spill into earnings estimates. As notedpreviously, we began to see earnings estimates turn lower in our models, while consensus estimates began to stall. Those consensus earnings estimates have now turned lower, and more worrying is that the number of companies now seeing downward earnings revisions is on the rise.\nWorse, there is now an increasing amount of uncertainty around earnings estimates looking forward. Based on historical trends, increasing uncertainty in earnings estimates appears to be highly correlated to spikes in the VIX index and S&P 500 drawdowns.\nDownward Revisions\nConsensus earnings estimates for the next twelve months (NTM) fell this week to $212.75 from $212.92. As of October 6, those estimates now stand at $211.97, a minor drop but the first big decline in estimates since October 2020. But more important is that the number of companies in the S&P 500 that saw downward earnings revisions rose to 209 this past week; it's the highest reading since the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of stocks seeing upgrades fell to 225, pushing the difference (spread) to just 16. Changes in the spread can also be highly correlated to year-over-year changes in the S&P 500 index itself. The decline in the spread of earnings revisions is similar to the deterioration witnessed at the beginning of 2018.\nExhibit 2: Downward earnings revisions are rising quickly, as upward revisions are falling.\n\nAlso, perhaps more important is that analysts appear to be growing more uncertain about the future path of earnings estimates, as noted by the standard deviation of those estimates. The standard deviation for earnings estimates looking 18 months forward has steadily risen. It is now at 15.1%, up from a low of 12.9% in February. It is worth noting that the standard deviation in earnings has been much higher post-Covid than pre-Covid. The rising level of uncertainty in earnings estimates seems to connect with rises in volatility in the equity market, as noted by the VIX index.\nIncreasing Uncertainty\nStarting in 2010, a falling standard deviation has been associated with a declining VIX index, while an increasing standard deviation has led to spikes in the index.\nExhibit 3: Uncertainty in earnings estimates appear to be highly correlated to the VIX index\n\nThis current period seems to resemble that of 2018 again, with the VIX and earnings uncertainty both spiking in January 2018, but then, more importantly, diverging in May 2018, with the VIX falling and remaining low, while earnings uncertainty was rising. It wasn't until October 2018 when the VIX began to spike. Currently, earnings uncertainty and the VIX declined until February 2021, when earnings uncertainty turned higher, and the VIX continued lower. However, there are signs that the VIX is now beginning to turn higher, once again, in this October period as we embark upon earnings season.\nExhibit 4: Earnings uncertainty is rising as the VIX is falling. The last time this happened was in 2018, and the VIX eventually caught up.\n\nMultiple Contraction\nAdditionally, this week the PE ratio of the S&P 500 briefly fell below the critical 20.5 level. The PE Ratio (NTM) has been steadily declining but has always managed to find support at 20.5. This week it dipped below that level and closed on it to finish the week. This could be a turning point for the market, suggesting further ratio contraction in the weeks ahead. This would make sense, especially if downward earnings revisions and uncertainty pick up.\nExhibit 5: The PE Ratio (NTM) fell below 20.5 for the first time since the spring of 2020 and has been a significant level of support.\n\nIt really does all begin to make sense why we have started seeing volatility in the S&P 500 index pick-up. Due to several changing fundamental factors, including the Federal Reserve's evolving stance on monetary policy, which is likely to not be as friendly for stocks going forward. Couple this with a truly fundamental shift in earnings estimates, and this could be the market's first real test since the spring of 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1252,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/823343355"}