Sriwonc
2021-10-13
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Will bank stocks' wild rally continue? Here are the numbers to watch in this week's earnings results<blockquote>银行股的疯狂涨势还会持续吗？以下是本周盈利结果中值得关注的数字</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":822609828,"tweetId":"822609828","gmtCreate":1634121114425,"gmtModify":1634121114672,"author":{"id":3586424409701165,"idStr":"3586424409701165","authorId":3586424409701165,"authorIdStr":"3586424409701165","name":"Sriwonc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264a5cfcdc2db585d9b139a4c4d7b11d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":40,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pls</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pls</p></body></html>","text":"Like pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822609828","repostId":2174973769,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2174973769","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1634118749,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2174973769?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 17:52","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Will bank stocks' wild rally continue? Here are the numbers to watch in this week's earnings results<blockquote>银行股的疯狂涨势还会持续吗？以下是本周盈利结果中值得关注的数字</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2174973769","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"A continued rally in bank stocks will likely depend on whether companies and individuals increase bo","content":"<p>A continued rally in bank stocks will likely depend on whether companies and individuals increase borrowing</p><p><blockquote>银行股的持续上涨可能取决于公司和个人是否增加借贷</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7cde5e8c6c5753daf42dd18f72e657\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Investors will be watching loan numbers like a hawk when banks kick off earnings season next week.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>当银行下周开始财报季时，投资者将像鹰一样关注贷款数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The fate of this year’s wild bank stock rally may depend on whether the major U.S. banks manage to show signs of increased loan activity in their third-quarter results that kick off this week.</p><p><blockquote>今年银行股疯狂上涨的命运可能取决于美国主要银行能否在本周公布的第三季度业绩中显示出贷款活动增加的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> With the prospect of rising interest rates helping banks widen their net interest margin — the profits they make on lending — bank stocks have outpaced the broader market all year.</p><p><blockquote>随着利率上升的前景帮助银行扩大净息差（它们从贷款中获得的利润），银行股全年都跑赢了大盘。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed61a7e74d0176922dd4df65d526465\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of Wednesday’s close, JPMorgan Chase is up 33% in the year to date, while Bank of America has advanced 46%, Goldman Sachs is up 47%, Morgan Stanley has jumped nearly 45%, Wells Fargo & Co. has rallied nearly 59% and Citigroup has posted a more moderate gain of nearly 18%. By contrast, the S&P 500 is up by 16.2% this year.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三收盘，摩根大通今年迄今已上涨33%，美国银行上涨46%，高盛上涨47%，摩根士丹利上涨近45%，富国银行上涨近59%，花旗集团的涨幅较为温和，接近18%。相比之下，标普500今年上涨了16.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Signs of an interest rate increase remain sketchy, however, as the Fed continues to signal a tightening cycle at some point, <b>while economists predict it may happen sooner rather than later</b>. But with the economy picking up from year-ago levels, banks have been relative darlings on Wall Street as they recovered from their 2020 losses during the COVID lockdown. Investor optimism around bank and other stocks has been under the microscope of late, however, with big selloffs in some sessions.</p><p><blockquote>然而，加息的迹象仍然不明显，因为美联储继续在某个时候发出紧缩周期的信号，<b>尽管经济学家预测这种情况可能迟早会发生</b>.但随着经济从一年前的水平回升，银行从2020年新冠疫情封锁期间的损失中恢复过来，一直是华尔街的相对宠儿。然而，投资者对银行和其他股票的乐观情绪最近受到了密切关注，一些交易日出现大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af27bbdda79398ae589bd21d19f5a995\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wall Street targets for banks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>华尔街银行的目标</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With earnings now on tap for the megabanks as shown in the chart above, investors would do well to view per-share earnings carefully, because banks have been shifting loan loss reserves that they built up in the early days of the COVID pandemic to their bottom line as the economy has improved. This practice allows banks to operate within regulatory boundaries around loan loss reserves, while providing a lift to beat their quarterly EPS estimates. </p><p><blockquote>如上图所示，大型银行的盈利现已公布，投资者最好仔细看待每股收益，因为银行一直在将新冠疫情早期建立的贷款损失准备金转移到他们的盈利随着经济的改善。这种做法使银行能够在贷款损失准备金的监管范围内运营，同时为超出季度每股收益预期提供动力。</blockquote></p><p> “Last year, they wrote a big number in for loan loss reserves and this year, they assume the economy is soaring, so they write a small number of loan loss reserves,” said bank analyst Dick Bove of Odeon Capital Group. “This in turn gets reflected in a big EPS number.<b>”</b></p><p><blockquote>Odeon Capital Group的银行分析师迪克·博夫(Dick Bove)表示：“去年，他们计提了大量贷款损失准备金，而今年，他们假设经济正在飙升，因此计提了少量贷款损失准备金。”“这反过来又反映在较大的每股收益数字上。<b>”</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts and investors appear to be aware of that move, however, since the stock prices of big banks failed to pop significantly after they reported second-quarter earnings three months ago.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师和投资者似乎意识到了这一举措，因为大银行的股价在三个月前公布第二季度财报后未能大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> A big challenge facing banks is whether they can show an uptick in loan activity as they lose market share to non-bank lenders, while consumers have been avoiding additional debt outside of brisk auto purchase activity.</p><p><blockquote>银行面临的一大挑战是，随着市场份额被非银行贷款机构夺走，它们能否表现出贷款活动的上升，而消费者一直在避免活跃的汽车购买活动之外的额外债务。</blockquote></p><p> “So far this year, the banks haven’t been increasing their lending to businesses or, in fact, to the home mortgage market,” Bove said. “Their holdings of these two loan portfolios, which represent 44.4% of their total loans, are down in both cases. The story is more positive in the consumer loan sector due to the surge in auto loans. However, when all portfolios are considered, bank loans are down today versus a year ago.”</p><p><blockquote>博夫说：“今年到目前为止，银行还没有增加对企业的贷款，事实上，也没有增加对住房抵押贷款市场的贷款。”“他们持有的这两种贷款组合占其贷款总额的44.4%，在这两种情况下都有所下降。由于汽车贷款激增，消费贷款领域的情况更加积极。然而，当考虑到所有投资组合时，今天的银行贷款与一年前相比有所下降。”</blockquote></p><p> On the bright side, however, banks more focused on capital market underwriting and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions remain in a stronger position against a background of record deal-making. This trend helps banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs as dominant names in these arenas, with exposure as well by Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit, Bove said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从好的方面来看，在交易量创纪录的背景下，更专注于资本市场承销和并购咨询服务的银行仍然处于更有利的地位。博夫表示，这一趋势有助于摩根大通、摩根士丹利和高盛等银行在这些领域占据主导地位，美国银行的美林子公司也有风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p> For its part, Edward Jones has three bank stocks on its focus list: Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and regional bank Truist,.</p><p><blockquote>就爱德华·琼斯而言，其重点名单上有三只银行股：美国银行、摩根大通和地区银行Truist。</blockquote></p><p> Edward Jones banking analyst James P. Shanahan said BAC is more attractive because it is well positioned to benefit from rising interest rates. JPMorgan Chase stands out for its diversification, including strong contributions from markets-related activities, while Truist offers value relative to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>Edward Jones银行业分析师James P.Shanahan表示，BAC更具吸引力，因为它处于有利地位，可以从利率上升中受益。摩根大通因其多元化而脱颖而出，包括市场相关活动的强劲贡献，而Truist相对于同行提供了价值。</blockquote></p><p> “In our view, the biggest catalyst for the banks is loan growth, particularly commercial loan growth, followed by rising interest rates,” Shanahan said. “One of the biggest challenges for the banks is that they had credit costs coming out of the pandemic, and they unwound that, so the reserves weren’t needed. As we got later into the recovery, the focus shifted to deposit growth and excess liquidity.”</p><p><blockquote>沙纳汉表示：“我们认为，银行最大的催化剂是贷款增长，特别是商业贷款增长，其次是利率上升。”“银行面临的最大挑战之一是，他们因疫情而产生了信贷成本，而他们取消了信贷成本，因此不需要准备金。随着我们进入复苏阶段，重点转向存款增长和过剩流动性。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With corporations issuing bonds instead of taking out loans, and consumers using stimulus money to pay down credit cards, banks have faced downward pressure on loan growth.</p><p><blockquote>随着企业发行债券而不是贷款，以及消费者使用刺激资金偿还信用卡，银行面临贷款增长的下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> “The banks would do better if they could redeploy low cost deposits they raised during the pandemic into higher yielding loans,” Shanahan said.</p><p><blockquote>沙纳汉表示：“如果银行能够将在大流行期间筹集的低成本存款重新部署到收益率更高的贷款中，它们会做得更好。”</blockquote></p><p> However, big companies may be nervous about borrowing and investing in plant equipment due to uncertainty about the Delta variant, concern over rising interest rates, as well as potential tax law changes from Congress.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于德尔塔变异毒株的不确定性、对利率上升的担忧以及国会潜在的税法变化，大公司可能会对借贷和投资工厂设备感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> Among the six megabanks, analysts continue to bestow the most buy ratings on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with 17 buy ratings each, followed by 16 buy ratings for Citi, 15 buy ratings for JP Morgan Chase, and 11 for Wells Fargo, which has been plagued by the most regulatory problems of the major banks.</p><p><blockquote>在六大银行中，分析师继续给予高盛和摩根士丹利最多的买入评级，各有17个买入评级，其次是花旗16个买入评级，摩根大通15个买入评级，富国银行11个买入评级，富国银行一直受到各大银行监管问题最多的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup stands out as the most affordable bank stock as it’s trading at 0.8 times its book value, the lowest multiple among the six megabanks, according to FactSet Data. Its forward price to earnings ratio of 9.7 also ranks as the lowest, followed closely by a 9.8 for Goldman Sachs as of Monday’s close. Bank of America’s 15.3 forward price to earnings ratio ranks as the highest in the group.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，花旗集团是最实惠的银行股，其交易价格是账面价值的0.8倍，是六大银行中最低的。截至周一收盘，其预期市盈率为9.7，也是最低的，紧随其后的是高盛的9.8。美国银行15.3的远期市盈率在该集团中排名最高。</blockquote></p><p> Households remain cautious as they face high unemployment relative to pre 2020, but it is possible that consumers will start to use their borrowing capacity on credit card and companies will start to borrow at a healthier pace in late 2021 or next year.</p><p><blockquote>家庭仍然保持谨慎，因为他们面临着相对于2020年之前的高失业率，但消费者可能会开始使用信用卡借贷能力，企业也可能会在2021年底或明年开始以更健康的速度借贷。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski said the firm’s recommended list for banks includes Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and U.S. Bancorp.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer分析师Chris Kotowski表示，该公司推荐的银行名单包括美国银行、花旗集团、高盛、杰富瑞和美国合众银行。</blockquote></p><p> The large banks covered by Oppenheimer have been yielding an average of 2.4% versus 1.3% for the S&P 500, he said. Either looking back by 10 years, five years, or three years, banks have grown their dividends roughly three times the pace of the S&P.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，Oppenheimer覆盖的大型银行的平均收益率为2.4%，而标普500的平均收益率为1.3%。无论是回顾10年、5年还是3年，银行股息增长速度大约是标准普尔指数的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Kotowksi on Sept. 29 increased Oppenheimer’s 2022 earnings estimates for banks by about 1% to 2% on expectations that credit quality will surprise in the upside.</p><p><blockquote>Kotowksi于9月29日将Oppenheimer对银行2022年盈利预期上调了约1%至2%，因为预计信贷质量将意外上升。</blockquote></p><p> “The key thing to watch for in this and coming earnings reports will be the resumption of net interest income growth,” he said. “While it probably won’t happen in a meaningful way this quarter, it should be another stable</p><p><blockquote>“在这份和即将发布的收益报告中，值得关注的关键是净利息收入恢复增长，”他表示。“虽然本季度可能不会以有意义的方式发生，但它应该是另一个稳定的</blockquote></p><p> quarter after net interest income bottomed in 3Q20.”</p><p><blockquote>2020年第三季度净利息收入触底后的一个季度。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will bank stocks' wild rally continue? Here are the numbers to watch in this week's earnings results<blockquote>银行股的疯狂涨势还会持续吗？以下是本周盈利结果中值得关注的数字</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill bank stocks' wild rally continue? Here are the numbers to watch in this week's earnings results<blockquote>银行股的疯狂涨势还会持续吗？以下是本周盈利结果中值得关注的数字</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-13 17:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A continued rally in bank stocks will likely depend on whether companies and individuals increase borrowing</p><p><blockquote>银行股的持续上涨可能取决于公司和个人是否增加借贷</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7cde5e8c6c5753daf42dd18f72e657\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Investors will be watching loan numbers like a hawk when banks kick off earnings season next week.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>当银行下周开始财报季时，投资者将像鹰一样关注贷款数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The fate of this year’s wild bank stock rally may depend on whether the major U.S. banks manage to show signs of increased loan activity in their third-quarter results that kick off this week.</p><p><blockquote>今年银行股疯狂上涨的命运可能取决于美国主要银行能否在本周公布的第三季度业绩中显示出贷款活动增加的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> With the prospect of rising interest rates helping banks widen their net interest margin — the profits they make on lending — bank stocks have outpaced the broader market all year.</p><p><blockquote>随着利率上升的前景帮助银行扩大净息差（它们从贷款中获得的利润），银行股全年都跑赢了大盘。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed61a7e74d0176922dd4df65d526465\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of Wednesday’s close, JPMorgan Chase is up 33% in the year to date, while Bank of America has advanced 46%, Goldman Sachs is up 47%, Morgan Stanley has jumped nearly 45%, Wells Fargo & Co. has rallied nearly 59% and Citigroup has posted a more moderate gain of nearly 18%. By contrast, the S&P 500 is up by 16.2% this year.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三收盘，摩根大通今年迄今已上涨33%，美国银行上涨46%，高盛上涨47%，摩根士丹利上涨近45%，富国银行上涨近59%，花旗集团的涨幅较为温和，接近18%。相比之下，标普500今年上涨了16.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Signs of an interest rate increase remain sketchy, however, as the Fed continues to signal a tightening cycle at some point, <b>while economists predict it may happen sooner rather than later</b>. But with the economy picking up from year-ago levels, banks have been relative darlings on Wall Street as they recovered from their 2020 losses during the COVID lockdown. Investor optimism around bank and other stocks has been under the microscope of late, however, with big selloffs in some sessions.</p><p><blockquote>然而，加息的迹象仍然不明显，因为美联储继续在某个时候发出紧缩周期的信号，<b>尽管经济学家预测这种情况可能迟早会发生</b>.但随着经济从一年前的水平回升，银行从2020年新冠疫情封锁期间的损失中恢复过来，一直是华尔街的相对宠儿。然而，投资者对银行和其他股票的乐观情绪最近受到了密切关注，一些交易日出现大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af27bbdda79398ae589bd21d19f5a995\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Wall Street targets for banks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>华尔街银行的目标</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With earnings now on tap for the megabanks as shown in the chart above, investors would do well to view per-share earnings carefully, because banks have been shifting loan loss reserves that they built up in the early days of the COVID pandemic to their bottom line as the economy has improved. This practice allows banks to operate within regulatory boundaries around loan loss reserves, while providing a lift to beat their quarterly EPS estimates. </p><p><blockquote>如上图所示，大型银行的盈利现已公布，投资者最好仔细看待每股收益，因为银行一直在将新冠疫情早期建立的贷款损失准备金转移到他们的盈利随着经济的改善。这种做法使银行能够在贷款损失准备金的监管范围内运营，同时为超出季度每股收益预期提供动力。</blockquote></p><p> “Last year, they wrote a big number in for loan loss reserves and this year, they assume the economy is soaring, so they write a small number of loan loss reserves,” said bank analyst Dick Bove of Odeon Capital Group. “This in turn gets reflected in a big EPS number.<b>”</b></p><p><blockquote>Odeon Capital Group的银行分析师迪克·博夫(Dick Bove)表示：“去年，他们计提了大量贷款损失准备金，而今年，他们假设经济正在飙升，因此计提了少量贷款损失准备金。”“这反过来又反映在较大的每股收益数字上。<b>”</b></blockquote></p><p> Analysts and investors appear to be aware of that move, however, since the stock prices of big banks failed to pop significantly after they reported second-quarter earnings three months ago.</p><p><blockquote>然而，分析师和投资者似乎意识到了这一举措，因为大银行的股价在三个月前公布第二季度财报后未能大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> A big challenge facing banks is whether they can show an uptick in loan activity as they lose market share to non-bank lenders, while consumers have been avoiding additional debt outside of brisk auto purchase activity.</p><p><blockquote>银行面临的一大挑战是，随着市场份额被非银行贷款机构夺走，它们能否表现出贷款活动的上升，而消费者一直在避免活跃的汽车购买活动之外的额外债务。</blockquote></p><p> “So far this year, the banks haven’t been increasing their lending to businesses or, in fact, to the home mortgage market,” Bove said. “Their holdings of these two loan portfolios, which represent 44.4% of their total loans, are down in both cases. The story is more positive in the consumer loan sector due to the surge in auto loans. However, when all portfolios are considered, bank loans are down today versus a year ago.”</p><p><blockquote>博夫说：“今年到目前为止，银行还没有增加对企业的贷款，事实上，也没有增加对住房抵押贷款市场的贷款。”“他们持有的这两种贷款组合占其贷款总额的44.4%，在这两种情况下都有所下降。由于汽车贷款激增，消费贷款领域的情况更加积极。然而，当考虑到所有投资组合时，今天的银行贷款与一年前相比有所下降。”</blockquote></p><p> On the bright side, however, banks more focused on capital market underwriting and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions remain in a stronger position against a background of record deal-making. This trend helps banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs as dominant names in these arenas, with exposure as well by Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit, Bove said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从好的方面来看，在交易量创纪录的背景下，更专注于资本市场承销和并购咨询服务的银行仍然处于更有利的地位。博夫表示，这一趋势有助于摩根大通、摩根士丹利和高盛等银行在这些领域占据主导地位，美国银行的美林子公司也有风险敞口。</blockquote></p><p> For its part, Edward Jones has three bank stocks on its focus list: Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and regional bank Truist,.</p><p><blockquote>就爱德华·琼斯而言，其重点名单上有三只银行股：美国银行、摩根大通和地区银行Truist。</blockquote></p><p> Edward Jones banking analyst James P. Shanahan said BAC is more attractive because it is well positioned to benefit from rising interest rates. JPMorgan Chase stands out for its diversification, including strong contributions from markets-related activities, while Truist offers value relative to its peers.</p><p><blockquote>Edward Jones银行业分析师James P.Shanahan表示，BAC更具吸引力，因为它处于有利地位，可以从利率上升中受益。摩根大通因其多元化而脱颖而出，包括市场相关活动的强劲贡献，而Truist相对于同行提供了价值。</blockquote></p><p> “In our view, the biggest catalyst for the banks is loan growth, particularly commercial loan growth, followed by rising interest rates,” Shanahan said. “One of the biggest challenges for the banks is that they had credit costs coming out of the pandemic, and they unwound that, so the reserves weren’t needed. As we got later into the recovery, the focus shifted to deposit growth and excess liquidity.”</p><p><blockquote>沙纳汉表示：“我们认为，银行最大的催化剂是贷款增长，特别是商业贷款增长，其次是利率上升。”“银行面临的最大挑战之一是，他们因疫情而产生了信贷成本，而他们取消了信贷成本，因此不需要准备金。随着我们进入复苏阶段，重点转向存款增长和过剩流动性。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With corporations issuing bonds instead of taking out loans, and consumers using stimulus money to pay down credit cards, banks have faced downward pressure on loan growth.</p><p><blockquote>随着企业发行债券而不是贷款，以及消费者使用刺激资金偿还信用卡，银行面临贷款增长的下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> “The banks would do better if they could redeploy low cost deposits they raised during the pandemic into higher yielding loans,” Shanahan said.</p><p><blockquote>沙纳汉表示：“如果银行能够将在大流行期间筹集的低成本存款重新部署到收益率更高的贷款中，它们会做得更好。”</blockquote></p><p> However, big companies may be nervous about borrowing and investing in plant equipment due to uncertainty about the Delta variant, concern over rising interest rates, as well as potential tax law changes from Congress.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于德尔塔变异毒株的不确定性、对利率上升的担忧以及国会潜在的税法变化，大公司可能会对借贷和投资工厂设备感到紧张。</blockquote></p><p> Among the six megabanks, analysts continue to bestow the most buy ratings on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with 17 buy ratings each, followed by 16 buy ratings for Citi, 15 buy ratings for JP Morgan Chase, and 11 for Wells Fargo, which has been plagued by the most regulatory problems of the major banks.</p><p><blockquote>在六大银行中，分析师继续给予高盛和摩根士丹利最多的买入评级，各有17个买入评级，其次是花旗16个买入评级，摩根大通15个买入评级，富国银行11个买入评级，富国银行一直受到各大银行监管问题最多的困扰。</blockquote></p><p> Citigroup stands out as the most affordable bank stock as it’s trading at 0.8 times its book value, the lowest multiple among the six megabanks, according to FactSet Data. Its forward price to earnings ratio of 9.7 also ranks as the lowest, followed closely by a 9.8 for Goldman Sachs as of Monday’s close. Bank of America’s 15.3 forward price to earnings ratio ranks as the highest in the group.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet数据显示，花旗集团是最实惠的银行股，其交易价格是账面价值的0.8倍，是六大银行中最低的。截至周一收盘，其预期市盈率为9.7，也是最低的，紧随其后的是高盛的9.8。美国银行15.3的远期市盈率在该集团中排名最高。</blockquote></p><p> Households remain cautious as they face high unemployment relative to pre 2020, but it is possible that consumers will start to use their borrowing capacity on credit card and companies will start to borrow at a healthier pace in late 2021 or next year.</p><p><blockquote>家庭仍然保持谨慎，因为他们面临着相对于2020年之前的高失业率，但消费者可能会开始使用信用卡借贷能力，企业也可能会在2021年底或明年开始以更健康的速度借贷。</blockquote></p><p> Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski said the firm’s recommended list for banks includes Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and U.S. Bancorp.</p><p><blockquote>Oppenheimer分析师Chris Kotowski表示，该公司推荐的银行名单包括美国银行、花旗集团、高盛、杰富瑞和美国合众银行。</blockquote></p><p> The large banks covered by Oppenheimer have been yielding an average of 2.4% versus 1.3% for the S&P 500, he said. Either looking back by 10 years, five years, or three years, banks have grown their dividends roughly three times the pace of the S&P.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，Oppenheimer覆盖的大型银行的平均收益率为2.4%，而标普500的平均收益率为1.3%。无论是回顾10年、5年还是3年，银行股息增长速度大约是标准普尔指数的三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Kotowksi on Sept. 29 increased Oppenheimer’s 2022 earnings estimates for banks by about 1% to 2% on expectations that credit quality will surprise in the upside.</p><p><blockquote>Kotowksi于9月29日将Oppenheimer对银行2022年盈利预期上调了约1%至2%，因为预计信贷质量将意外上升。</blockquote></p><p> “The key thing to watch for in this and coming earnings reports will be the resumption of net interest income growth,” he said. “While it probably won’t happen in a meaningful way this quarter, it should be another stable</p><p><blockquote>“在这份和即将发布的收益报告中，值得关注的关键是净利息收入恢复增长，”他表示。“虽然本季度可能不会以有意义的方式发生，但它应该是另一个稳定的</blockquote></p><p> quarter after net interest income bottomed in 3Q20.”</p><p><blockquote>2020年第三季度净利息收入触底后的一个季度。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-earnings-kick-off-next-week-and-wall-street-will-be-watching-closely-for-signs-of-growth-in-lending-11633623565?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","C":"花旗","WFC":"富国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","MS":"摩根士丹利","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-earnings-kick-off-next-week-and-wall-street-will-be-watching-closely-for-signs-of-growth-in-lending-11633623565?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2174973769","content_text":"A continued rally in bank stocks will likely depend on whether companies and individuals increase borrowing\nInvestors will be watching loan numbers like a hawk when banks kick off earnings season next week.\n\nThe fate of this year’s wild bank stock rally may depend on whether the major U.S. banks manage to show signs of increased loan activity in their third-quarter results that kick off this week.\nWith the prospect of rising interest rates helping banks widen their net interest margin — the profits they make on lending — bank stocks have outpaced the broader market all year.\nSource: FactSet\n\nAs of Wednesday’s close, JPMorgan Chase is up 33% in the year to date, while Bank of America has advanced 46%, Goldman Sachs is up 47%, Morgan Stanley has jumped nearly 45%, Wells Fargo & Co. has rallied nearly 59% and Citigroup has posted a more moderate gain of nearly 18%. By contrast, the S&P 500 is up by 16.2% this year.\nSigns of an interest rate increase remain sketchy, however, as the Fed continues to signal a tightening cycle at some point, while economists predict it may happen sooner rather than later. But with the economy picking up from year-ago levels, banks have been relative darlings on Wall Street as they recovered from their 2020 losses during the COVID lockdown. Investor optimism around bank and other stocks has been under the microscope of late, however, with big selloffs in some sessions.\nWall Street targets for banks\n\nWith earnings now on tap for the megabanks as shown in the chart above, investors would do well to view per-share earnings carefully, because banks have been shifting loan loss reserves that they built up in the early days of the COVID pandemic to their bottom line as the economy has improved. This practice allows banks to operate within regulatory boundaries around loan loss reserves, while providing a lift to beat their quarterly EPS estimates. \n\n\n“Last year, they wrote a big number in for loan loss reserves and this year, they assume the economy is soaring, so they write a small number of loan loss reserves,” said bank analyst Dick Bove of Odeon Capital Group. “This in turn gets reflected in a big EPS number.”\nAnalysts and investors appear to be aware of that move, however, since the stock prices of big banks failed to pop significantly after they reported second-quarter earnings three months ago.\nA big challenge facing banks is whether they can show an uptick in loan activity as they lose market share to non-bank lenders, while consumers have been avoiding additional debt outside of brisk auto purchase activity.\n“So far this year, the banks haven’t been increasing their lending to businesses or, in fact, to the home mortgage market,” Bove said. “Their holdings of these two loan portfolios, which represent 44.4% of their total loans, are down in both cases. The story is more positive in the consumer loan sector due to the surge in auto loans. However, when all portfolios are considered, bank loans are down today versus a year ago.”\nOn the bright side, however, banks more focused on capital market underwriting and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions remain in a stronger position against a background of record deal-making. This trend helps banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs as dominant names in these arenas, with exposure as well by Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit, Bove said.\nFor its part, Edward Jones has three bank stocks on its focus list: Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and regional bank Truist,.\nEdward Jones banking analyst James P. Shanahan said BAC is more attractive because it is well positioned to benefit from rising interest rates. JPMorgan Chase stands out for its diversification, including strong contributions from markets-related activities, while Truist offers value relative to its peers.\n“In our view, the biggest catalyst for the banks is loan growth, particularly commercial loan growth, followed by rising interest rates,” Shanahan said. “One of the biggest challenges for the banks is that they had credit costs coming out of the pandemic, and they unwound that, so the reserves weren’t needed. As we got later into the recovery, the focus shifted to deposit growth and excess liquidity.”\nWith corporations issuing bonds instead of taking out loans, and consumers using stimulus money to pay down credit cards, banks have faced downward pressure on loan growth.\n\n“The banks would do better if they could redeploy low cost deposits they raised during the pandemic into higher yielding loans,” Shanahan said.\nHowever, big companies may be nervous about borrowing and investing in plant equipment due to uncertainty about the Delta variant, concern over rising interest rates, as well as potential tax law changes from Congress.\n\nAmong the six megabanks, analysts continue to bestow the most buy ratings on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with 17 buy ratings each, followed by 16 buy ratings for Citi, 15 buy ratings for JP Morgan Chase, and 11 for Wells Fargo, which has been plagued by the most regulatory problems of the major banks.\nCitigroup stands out as the most affordable bank stock as it’s trading at 0.8 times its book value, the lowest multiple among the six megabanks, according to FactSet Data. Its forward price to earnings ratio of 9.7 also ranks as the lowest, followed closely by a 9.8 for Goldman Sachs as of Monday’s close. Bank of America’s 15.3 forward price to earnings ratio ranks as the highest in the group.\n\nHouseholds remain cautious as they face high unemployment relative to pre 2020, but it is possible that consumers will start to use their borrowing capacity on credit card and companies will start to borrow at a healthier pace in late 2021 or next year.\n\nOppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski said the firm’s recommended list for banks includes Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and U.S. Bancorp.\nThe large banks covered by Oppenheimer have been yielding an average of 2.4% versus 1.3% for the S&P 500, he said. Either looking back by 10 years, five years, or three years, banks have grown their dividends roughly three times the pace of the S&P.\nKotowksi on Sept. 29 increased Oppenheimer’s 2022 earnings estimates for banks by about 1% to 2% on expectations that credit quality will surprise in the upside.\n“The key thing to watch for in this and coming earnings reports will be the resumption of net interest income growth,” he said. “While it probably won’t happen in a meaningful way this quarter, it should be another stable\nquarter after net interest income bottomed in 3Q20.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BAC":0.9,"GS":0.9,"C":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1903,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/822609828"}
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