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2021-10-13

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IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Supply-Chain Disruptions, Pandemic Pressures<blockquote>由于供应链中断和大流行压力，国际货币基金组织下调全球增长预测</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":822386773,"tweetId":"822386773","gmtCreate":1634091445249,"gmtModify":1634091476739,"author":{"id":4092703264643730,"idStr":"4092703264643730","authorId":4092703264643730,"authorIdStr":"4092703264643730","name":"MarcusChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaf954632da22a5e321b705cbb28cc0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good read</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good read</body></html>","text":"Good read","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822386773","repostId":1193879377,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193879377","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634090184,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193879377?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 09:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Supply-Chain Disruptions, Pandemic Pressures<blockquote>由于供应链中断和大流行压力，国际货币基金组织下调全球增长预测</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193879377","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"WASHINGTON—Supply-chain disruptions and global health concerns spurred the International Monetary Fu","content":"WASHINGTON—Supply-chain disruptions and global health concerns spurred the International Monetary Fund to lower its 2021 growth forecast for the world economy, while the group raised its inflation outlook and warned of the risks of higher prices.<blockquote>华盛顿——供应链中断和全球健康担忧促使国际货币基金组织下调了2021年世界经济增长预期，同时该组织上调了通胀前景，并警告物价上涨的风险。</blockquote> In the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, released Tuesday, economists cited thespread of the Covid-19 Delta variantand said the foremost policy priority is to vaccinate an adequate number of people in every country to prevent dangerous mutations of the virus. They stressed the importance for major economies to fulfill pledges to provide vaccines and financial support tointernational vaccination effortsbefore new variants knock a tenuous recovery off track.<blockquote>在国际货币基金组织周二发布的最新世界经济展望报告中，经济学家引用了新冠肺炎三角洲变种的传播，并表示首要的政策优先事项是在每个国家为足够数量的人接种疫苗，以防止病毒的危险突变。他们强调，在新变种使脆弱的复苏偏离轨道之前，主要经济体必须履行向国际疫苗接种工作提供疫苗和财政支持的承诺。</blockquote> “Policy choices have become more difficult…with limited room to maneuver,” the IMF economists said in the report, which is released twice a year, along with two additional updates.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织经济学家在这份每年发布两次的报告中表示：“政策选择变得更加困难……回旋余地有限。”该报告还另外更新了两次。</blockquote> In raising its inflation outlook, the group urged policy makers to stand ready to take swift action if the recovery strengthens more quickly than expected orinflation risksbecome pronounced. Prices from food to medicine to vehicles have risen world-wide, threatening the global recovery after the pandemic wiped out businesses and jobs.<blockquote>在上调通胀前景时，该组织敦促政策制定者做好准备，如果经济复苏的速度快于预期或通胀风险变得明显，则迅速采取行动。从食品到药品再到汽车，全球范围内的价格都在上涨，在疫情摧毁了企业和就业机会后，威胁着全球复苏。</blockquote> The IMF, a group made up of 190 member countries, promotes international financial stability and monetary cooperation. It also acts as a lender of last resort to countries in financial distress.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织由190个成员国组成，促进国际金融稳定和货币合作。它还充当陷入金融困境的国家的最后贷款人。</blockquote> The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2021 to 5.9% from 6% in its July report, a result of a reduction in its projection for advanced economies to 5.2% from 5.6%. The reduction mostly reflected problems with a global supply chain that caused a mismatch between supply and demand.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织在7月份的报告中将2021年全球增长预测从6%下调至5.9%，这是其对发达经济体的预测从5.6%下调至5.2%的结果。这一减少主要反映了全球供应链的问题，导致供需不匹配。</blockquote> For emerging markets and developing economies, the outlook improved. Growth in these economies is pegged at 6.4% for 2021, up from an estimate of 6.3% in July. The uptick reflected stronger performances by some commodity-exporting countries amid rising energy prices.<blockquote>新兴市场和发展中经济体的前景有所改善。这些经济体2021年的增长率预计为6.4%，高于7月份估计的6.3%。这一增长反映了一些大宗商品出口国在能源价格上涨的情况下表现强劲。</blockquote> The group maintained its view that the global growth will moderate to 4.9% in 2022.<blockquote>本集团维持其观点，认为二零二二年全球增长将放缓至4.9%。</blockquote> Among leading economics, the growth outlook for the U.S. was trimmed 0.1 percentage point to 6% this year, while the projection for China also was reduced by 0.1 percentage point to 8%. Several other major economies saw their outlook cut, including Germany, whose economy now is projected to grow 3.1% this year, down 0.5 percentage point from its July forecast. Japan’s outlook was lowered by 0.4 percentage point to 2.4%.<blockquote>在主要经济体中，美国今年的增长前景被下调0.1个百分点至6%，而中国的预测也被下调0.1个百分点至8%。其他几个主要经济体的前景被下调，包括德国，目前预计其经济今年将增长3.1%，比7月份的预测下降了0.5个百分点。日本展望下调0.4个百分点至2.4%。</blockquote> While the IMF maintains the view that inflation will return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, it also warns that the negative impact of inflation could grow further, if the pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions turn out to be more damaging and long-lasting. That could result in earlier tightening of monetary policy by central banks, holding back recovery.<blockquote>虽然国际货币基金组织坚持认为通胀将在2022年年中恢复到大流行前的水平，但它也警告说，如果与大流行相关的供应链中断更具破坏性和长期性，通胀的负面影响可能会进一步增长。这可能导致各国央行提前收紧货币政策，从而阻碍经济复苏。</blockquote> IMF economists say that inflation outlook is “highly uncertain” due to the unprecedented nature of the current recovery. Despite the upward revision in its price projections, the forecast for inflation to return to pre-pandemic levels is based on an ample labor supply in advanced economies that should weigh on wages.<blockquote>IMF经济学家表示，由于当前复苏的前所未有性质，通胀前景“高度不确定”。尽管价格预测上调，但通胀将恢复到大流行前水平的预测是基于发达经济体劳动力供应充足，这应该会对工资造成压力。</blockquote> The IMF economists warn, however, some factors could add persistent inflationary pressure. Among them: a shortage of housing boosting real-estate prices and rent ahead of new construction. Higher import prices of food and oil will also keep consumer prices elevated in emerging and developing countries. Prolonged supply disruptions too might push businesses to increase prices, leading to stronger demand for wage increases from workers.<blockquote>然而，国际货币基金组织经济学家警告说，一些因素可能会增加持续的通胀压力。其中包括：住房短缺推高了房地产价格和新建筑开工前的租金。食品和石油进口价格上涨也将使新兴和发展中国家的消费价格居高不下。长期的供应中断也可能促使企业提高价格，导致工人对加薪的需求更加强烈。</blockquote> “Should households, business and investors begin anticipating that price pressure from pent-up demand…to persist, there is a risk that medium-term inflation expectations could drift upward and lead to a self-fulfilling further rise in prices,” IMF economists wrote. They added that, for now, there are “no signs of such a shift.”<blockquote>国际货币基金组织经济学家写道：“如果家庭、企业和投资者开始预期被压抑的需求带来的价格压力……持续下去，中期通胀预期可能会上升，并导致价格自我实现的进一步上涨。”。他们补充说，目前“没有这种转变的迹象”。</blockquote> Supply shortages caused by logistical bottlenecks, combined with stimulus-fed consumer appetite for goods, have caused rapid increases in consumer prices in the U.S., Germany and many other nations, the IMF says.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示，物流瓶颈造成的供应短缺，加上刺激措施刺激的消费者对商品的需求，导致美国、德国和许多其他国家的消费者价格迅速上涨。</blockquote> Food-price increases have put particularly grave burdens on households from poorer nations. The IMF’s food-and-beverage price index rose 11.1% between February and August, with prices of meat and coffee rising 30% and 29%, respectively.<blockquote>食品价格上涨给较贫穷国家的家庭带来了特别严重的负担。国际货币基金组织的食品和饮料价格指数在2月至8月期间上涨了11.1%，其中肉类和咖啡价格分别上涨了30%和29%。</blockquote> The IMF now expects consumer-price inflation in advanced economies to reach 2.8% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022, up from 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, in its July report. Inflationary pressure is even more pronounced in emerging and developing economies, with consumer prices rising 5.5% this year and 4.9% next year.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织目前预计，发达经济体的消费者价格通胀率将在2021年和2022年分别达到2.8%和2.3%，高于7月份报告中的2.4%和2.1%。新兴和发展中经济体的通胀压力更为明显，消费者价格今年将上涨5.5%，明年将上涨4.9%。</blockquote> “While monetary policy can generally look through transitory increases in inflation, central banks should be prepared to act quickly if the risks of rising inflation expectations become more material in this uncharted recovery,” Gita Gopinath, IMF economic counselor and director of research, wrote in the report.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织经济顾问兼研究主管吉塔·戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)在报告中写道：“虽然货币政策通常可以应对通胀的暂时上升，但如果通胀预期上升的风险在这场未知的复苏中变得更加重大，央行应该准备好迅速采取行动。”</blockquote> While the increases in commodity prices have bolstered some emerging and developing economies, many of the world’s poorest countries have been left further behind, as theystruggled to gain access to vaccinesneeded to open up their economies. More than 95% of people in lower-income nations remain unvaccinated, a contrast to the vaccination rate of nearly 60% in rich countries.<blockquote>尽管大宗商品价格上涨提振了一些新兴和发展中经济体，但世界上许多最贫穷的国家却进一步落后，因为它们难以获得开放经济所需的疫苗。低收入国家超过95%的人仍未接种疫苗，而富裕国家的疫苗接种率接近60%。</blockquote> The IMF economists urged major economies to provide ample liquidity and debt relief for poorer nations with limited policy resources. “The dangerous divergence in economic prospects across countries remains a major concern,” Ms. Gopinath says.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织的经济学家敦促主要经济体为政策资源有限的贫穷国家提供充足的流动性和债务减免。“各国经济前景的危险分歧仍然是一个主要问题，”戈皮纳特女士说。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Supply-Chain Disruptions, Pandemic Pressures<blockquote>由于供应链中断和大流行压力，国际货币基金组织下调全球增长预测</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Supply-Chain Disruptions, Pandemic Pressures<blockquote>由于供应链中断和大流行压力，国际货币基金组织下调全球增长预测</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThe Wall Street Journal2021-10-13 09:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWASHINGTON—Supply-chain disruptions and global health concerns spurred the International Monetary Fund to lower its 2021 growth forecast for the world economy, while the group raised its inflation outlook and warned of the risks of higher prices.<blockquote>华盛顿——供应链中断和全球健康担忧促使国际货币基金组织下调了2021年世界经济增长预期，同时该组织上调了通胀前景，并警告物价上涨的风险。</blockquote> In the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, released Tuesday, economists cited thespread of the Covid-19 Delta variantand said the foremost policy priority is to vaccinate an adequate number of people in every country to prevent dangerous mutations of the virus. They stressed the importance for major economies to fulfill pledges to provide vaccines and financial support tointernational vaccination effortsbefore new variants knock a tenuous recovery off track.<blockquote>在国际货币基金组织周二发布的最新世界经济展望报告中，经济学家引用了新冠肺炎三角洲变种的传播，并表示首要的政策优先事项是在每个国家为足够数量的人接种疫苗，以防止病毒的危险突变。他们强调，在新变种使脆弱的复苏偏离轨道之前，主要经济体必须履行向国际疫苗接种工作提供疫苗和财政支持的承诺。</blockquote> “Policy choices have become more difficult…with limited room to maneuver,” the IMF economists said in the report, which is released twice a year, along with two additional updates.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织经济学家在这份每年发布两次的报告中表示：“政策选择变得更加困难……回旋余地有限。”该报告还另外更新了两次。</blockquote> In raising its inflation outlook, the group urged policy makers to stand ready to take swift action if the recovery strengthens more quickly than expected orinflation risksbecome pronounced. Prices from food to medicine to vehicles have risen world-wide, threatening the global recovery after the pandemic wiped out businesses and jobs.<blockquote>在上调通胀前景时，该组织敦促政策制定者做好准备，如果经济复苏的速度快于预期或通胀风险变得明显，则迅速采取行动。从食品到药品再到汽车，全球范围内的价格都在上涨，在疫情摧毁了企业和就业机会后，威胁着全球复苏。</blockquote> The IMF, a group made up of 190 member countries, promotes international financial stability and monetary cooperation. It also acts as a lender of last resort to countries in financial distress.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织由190个成员国组成，促进国际金融稳定和货币合作。它还充当陷入金融困境的国家的最后贷款人。</blockquote> The IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2021 to 5.9% from 6% in its July report, a result of a reduction in its projection for advanced economies to 5.2% from 5.6%. The reduction mostly reflected problems with a global supply chain that caused a mismatch between supply and demand.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织在7月份的报告中将2021年全球增长预测从6%下调至5.9%，这是其对发达经济体的预测从5.6%下调至5.2%的结果。这一减少主要反映了全球供应链的问题，导致供需不匹配。</blockquote> For emerging markets and developing economies, the outlook improved. Growth in these economies is pegged at 6.4% for 2021, up from an estimate of 6.3% in July. The uptick reflected stronger performances by some commodity-exporting countries amid rising energy prices.<blockquote>新兴市场和发展中经济体的前景有所改善。这些经济体2021年的增长率预计为6.4%，高于7月份估计的6.3%。这一增长反映了一些大宗商品出口国在能源价格上涨的情况下表现强劲。</blockquote> The group maintained its view that the global growth will moderate to 4.9% in 2022.<blockquote>本集团维持其观点，认为二零二二年全球增长将放缓至4.9%。</blockquote> Among leading economics, the growth outlook for the U.S. was trimmed 0.1 percentage point to 6% this year, while the projection for China also was reduced by 0.1 percentage point to 8%. Several other major economies saw their outlook cut, including Germany, whose economy now is projected to grow 3.1% this year, down 0.5 percentage point from its July forecast. Japan’s outlook was lowered by 0.4 percentage point to 2.4%.<blockquote>在主要经济体中，美国今年的增长前景被下调0.1个百分点至6%，而中国的预测也被下调0.1个百分点至8%。其他几个主要经济体的前景被下调，包括德国，目前预计其经济今年将增长3.1%，比7月份的预测下降了0.5个百分点。日本展望下调0.4个百分点至2.4%。</blockquote> While the IMF maintains the view that inflation will return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, it also warns that the negative impact of inflation could grow further, if the pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions turn out to be more damaging and long-lasting. That could result in earlier tightening of monetary policy by central banks, holding back recovery.<blockquote>虽然国际货币基金组织坚持认为通胀将在2022年年中恢复到大流行前的水平，但它也警告说，如果与大流行相关的供应链中断更具破坏性和长期性，通胀的负面影响可能会进一步增长。这可能导致各国央行提前收紧货币政策，从而阻碍经济复苏。</blockquote> IMF economists say that inflation outlook is “highly uncertain” due to the unprecedented nature of the current recovery. Despite the upward revision in its price projections, the forecast for inflation to return to pre-pandemic levels is based on an ample labor supply in advanced economies that should weigh on wages.<blockquote>IMF经济学家表示，由于当前复苏的前所未有性质，通胀前景“高度不确定”。尽管价格预测上调，但通胀将恢复到大流行前水平的预测是基于发达经济体劳动力供应充足，这应该会对工资造成压力。</blockquote> The IMF economists warn, however, some factors could add persistent inflationary pressure. Among them: a shortage of housing boosting real-estate prices and rent ahead of new construction. Higher import prices of food and oil will also keep consumer prices elevated in emerging and developing countries. Prolonged supply disruptions too might push businesses to increase prices, leading to stronger demand for wage increases from workers.<blockquote>然而，国际货币基金组织经济学家警告说，一些因素可能会增加持续的通胀压力。其中包括：住房短缺推高了房地产价格和新建筑开工前的租金。食品和石油进口价格上涨也将使新兴和发展中国家的消费价格居高不下。长期的供应中断也可能促使企业提高价格，导致工人对加薪的需求更加强烈。</blockquote> “Should households, business and investors begin anticipating that price pressure from pent-up demand…to persist, there is a risk that medium-term inflation expectations could drift upward and lead to a self-fulfilling further rise in prices,” IMF economists wrote. They added that, for now, there are “no signs of such a shift.”<blockquote>国际货币基金组织经济学家写道：“如果家庭、企业和投资者开始预期被压抑的需求带来的价格压力……持续下去，中期通胀预期可能会上升，并导致价格自我实现的进一步上涨。”。他们补充说，目前“没有这种转变的迹象”。</blockquote> Supply shortages caused by logistical bottlenecks, combined with stimulus-fed consumer appetite for goods, have caused rapid increases in consumer prices in the U.S., Germany and many other nations, the IMF says.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织表示，物流瓶颈造成的供应短缺，加上刺激措施刺激的消费者对商品的需求，导致美国、德国和许多其他国家的消费者价格迅速上涨。</blockquote> Food-price increases have put particularly grave burdens on households from poorer nations. The IMF’s food-and-beverage price index rose 11.1% between February and August, with prices of meat and coffee rising 30% and 29%, respectively.<blockquote>食品价格上涨给较贫穷国家的家庭带来了特别严重的负担。国际货币基金组织的食品和饮料价格指数在2月至8月期间上涨了11.1%，其中肉类和咖啡价格分别上涨了30%和29%。</blockquote> The IMF now expects consumer-price inflation in advanced economies to reach 2.8% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022, up from 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, in its July report. Inflationary pressure is even more pronounced in emerging and developing economies, with consumer prices rising 5.5% this year and 4.9% next year.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织目前预计，发达经济体的消费者价格通胀率将在2021年和2022年分别达到2.8%和2.3%，高于7月份报告中的2.4%和2.1%。新兴和发展中经济体的通胀压力更为明显，消费者价格今年将上涨5.5%，明年将上涨4.9%。</blockquote> “While monetary policy can generally look through transitory increases in inflation, central banks should be prepared to act quickly if the risks of rising inflation expectations become more material in this uncharted recovery,” Gita Gopinath, IMF economic counselor and director of research, wrote in the report.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织经济顾问兼研究主管吉塔·戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)在报告中写道：“虽然货币政策通常可以应对通胀的暂时上升，但如果通胀预期上升的风险在这场未知的复苏中变得更加重大，央行应该准备好迅速采取行动。”</blockquote> While the increases in commodity prices have bolstered some emerging and developing economies, many of the world’s poorest countries have been left further behind, as theystruggled to gain access to vaccinesneeded to open up their economies. More than 95% of people in lower-income nations remain unvaccinated, a contrast to the vaccination rate of nearly 60% in rich countries.<blockquote>尽管大宗商品价格上涨提振了一些新兴和发展中经济体，但世界上许多最贫穷的国家却进一步落后，因为它们难以获得开放经济所需的疫苗。低收入国家超过95%的人仍未接种疫苗，而富裕国家的疫苗接种率接近60%。</blockquote> The IMF economists urged major economies to provide ample liquidity and debt relief for poorer nations with limited policy resources. “The dangerous divergence in economic prospects across countries remains a major concern,” Ms. Gopinath says.<blockquote>国际货币基金组织的经济学家敦促主要经济体为政策资源有限的贫穷国家提供充足的流动性和债务减免。“各国经济前景的危险分歧仍然是一个主要问题，”戈皮纳特女士说。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-amid-supply-chain-disruptions-warns-of-inflation-risks-11634043601?mod=hp_lead_pos4\">The Wall Street Journal</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-amid-supply-chain-disruptions-warns-of-inflation-risks-11634043601?mod=hp_lead_pos4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193879377","content_text":"WASHINGTON—Supply-chain disruptions and global health concerns spurred the International Monetary Fund to lower its 2021 growth forecast for the world economy, while the group raised its inflation outlook and warned of the risks of higher prices.\nIn the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, released Tuesday, economists cited thespread of the Covid-19 Delta variantand said the foremost policy priority is to vaccinate an adequate number of people in every country to prevent dangerous mutations of the virus. They stressed the importance for major economies to fulfill pledges to provide vaccines and financial support tointernational vaccination effortsbefore new variants knock a tenuous recovery off track.\n“Policy choices have become more difficult…with limited room to maneuver,” the IMF economists said in the report, which is released twice a year, along with two additional updates.\nIn raising its inflation outlook, the group urged policy makers to stand ready to take swift action if the recovery strengthens more quickly than expected orinflation risksbecome pronounced. Prices from food to medicine to vehicles have risen world-wide, threatening the global recovery after the pandemic wiped out businesses and jobs.\nThe IMF, a group made up of 190 member countries, promotes international financial stability and monetary cooperation. It also acts as a lender of last resort to countries in financial distress.\nThe IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2021 to 5.9% from 6% in its July report, a result of a reduction in its projection for advanced economies to 5.2% from 5.6%. The reduction mostly reflected problems with a global supply chain that caused a mismatch between supply and demand.\nFor emerging markets and developing economies, the outlook improved. Growth in these economies is pegged at 6.4% for 2021, up from an estimate of 6.3% in July. The uptick reflected stronger performances by some commodity-exporting countries amid rising energy prices.\nThe group maintained its view that the global growth will moderate to 4.9% in 2022.\nAmong leading economics, the growth outlook for the U.S. was trimmed 0.1 percentage point to 6% this year, while the projection for China also was reduced by 0.1 percentage point to 8%. Several other major economies saw their outlook cut, including Germany, whose economy now is projected to grow 3.1% this year, down 0.5 percentage point from its July forecast. Japan’s outlook was lowered by 0.4 percentage point to 2.4%.\nWhile the IMF maintains the view that inflation will return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, it also warns that the negative impact of inflation could grow further, if the pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions turn out to be more damaging and long-lasting. That could result in earlier tightening of monetary policy by central banks, holding back recovery.\nIMF economists say that inflation outlook is “highly uncertain” due to the unprecedented nature of the current recovery. Despite the upward revision in its price projections, the forecast for inflation to return to pre-pandemic levels is based on an ample labor supply in advanced economies that should weigh on wages.\nThe IMF economists warn, however, some factors could add persistent inflationary pressure. Among them: a shortage of housing boosting real-estate prices and rent ahead of new construction. Higher import prices of food and oil will also keep consumer prices elevated in emerging and developing countries. Prolonged supply disruptions too might push businesses to increase prices, leading to stronger demand for wage increases from workers.\n“Should households, business and investors begin anticipating that price pressure from pent-up demand…to persist, there is a risk that medium-term inflation expectations could drift upward and lead to a self-fulfilling further rise in prices,” IMF economists wrote. They added that, for now, there are “no signs of such a shift.”\nSupply shortages caused by logistical bottlenecks, combined with stimulus-fed consumer appetite for goods, have caused rapid increases in consumer prices in the U.S., Germany and many other nations, the IMF says.\nFood-price increases have put particularly grave burdens on households from poorer nations. The IMF’s food-and-beverage price index rose 11.1% between February and August, with prices of meat and coffee rising 30% and 29%, respectively.\nThe IMF now expects consumer-price inflation in advanced economies to reach 2.8% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022, up from 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, in its July report. Inflationary pressure is even more pronounced in emerging and developing economies, with consumer prices rising 5.5% this year and 4.9% next year.\n“While monetary policy can generally look through transitory increases in inflation, central banks should be prepared to act quickly if the risks of rising inflation expectations become more material in this uncharted recovery,” Gita Gopinath, IMF economic counselor and director of research, wrote in the report.\nWhile the increases in commodity prices have bolstered some emerging and developing economies, many of the world’s poorest countries have been left further behind, as theystruggled to gain access to vaccinesneeded to open up their economies. More than 95% of people in lower-income nations remain unvaccinated, a contrast to the vaccination rate of nearly 60% in rich countries.\nThe IMF economists urged major economies to provide ample liquidity and debt relief for poorer nations with limited policy resources. “The dangerous divergence in economic prospects across countries remains a major concern,” Ms. Gopinath says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/822386773"}