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2021-10-09

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Wall St Week Ahead: Energy price spike adds market risk as earnings arrive<blockquote>华尔街未来一周：随着财报的到来，能源价格飙升增加了市场风险</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":821611197,"tweetId":"821611197","gmtCreate":1633739340472,"gmtModify":1633739340609,"author":{"id":3583431682924843,"idStr":"3583431682924843","authorId":3583431682924843,"authorIdStr":"3583431682924843","name":"Tinktink","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":9,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Great&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Great&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Great","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821611197","repostId":1122559676,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122559676","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633735667,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122559676?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 07:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall St Week Ahead: Energy price spike adds market risk as earnings arrive<blockquote>华尔街未来一周：随着财报的到来，能源价格飙升增加了市场风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122559676","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock market investors are gauging whether more volatility is ahead becaus","content":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock market investors are gauging whether more volatility is ahead because of surging global energy prices, which could drive up inflation, erode profit margins and pressure consumer spending.<blockquote>纽约（路透社） - 由于全球能源价格飙升，美国股市投资者正在评估未来是否会出现更多波动，这可能会推高通胀、侵蚀利润率并给消费者支出带来压力。</blockquote> Stocks rebounded this week after Monday’s losses left the S&amp;P 500 down 5.2% from its record high hit in September. A truce in the U.S. Congress to avoid a debt default provided some relief, but investors remain worried about inflation, higher U.S. Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s plan to unwind its easy money policies.<blockquote>周一的下跌导致标普500从 9 月份的历史新高下跌 5.2%，本周股市出现反弹。美国的休战美国国会为避免债务违约提供了一些缓解，但投资者仍然担心通货膨胀、美国国债收益率上升以及美联储放松宽松货币政策的计划。</blockquote> Energy costs are a major factor for inflation, and will be a key topic as companies report third-quarter results in coming weeks. Oil prices have surged more than 25% since late August, with Brent topping $80 a barrel and hitting three-year highs. Natural gas prices in Europe have rocketed, causing alarm among political leaders.<blockquote>能源成本是通胀的一个主要因素，也将成为未来几周企业公布第三季度业绩时的一个关键话题。自8月下旬以来，油价飙升超过25%，布伦特原油突破每桶80美元，创下三年新高。欧洲天然气价格飙升，引起了政治领导人的恐慌。</blockquote> Oil prices have a “roughly neutral” affect on overall corporate earnings, according to Goldman Sachs strategists, with every 10% increase in Brent prices boosting S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 0.3%.<blockquote>高盛策略师表示，油价对企业整体盈利的影响 “大致中性 ”，布伦特原油价格每上涨 10%，标普500每股收益就会增长 0.3%。</blockquote> Energy shares have soared as crude prices climbed, yet higher prices could weigh on companies ranging from transportation to consumer discretionary firms.<blockquote>随着原油价格上涨，能源股飙升，但价格上涨可能会给从运输到非必需消费品公司等公司带来压力。</blockquote> “We are going to find out if this piece of the inflation puzzle is the straw that breaks the camel’s back and actually starts cutting into margins,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “There are incremental costs to everything when energy prices go up.”<blockquote>“国家证券公司（National Securities）首席市场策略师阿特-霍根（Art Hogan）说：”我们将找出通胀拼图的这块是否是压垮骆驼的稻草，并真正开始削减利润。“能源价格上涨时，一切都会增加成本”。</blockquote> Despite September’s pullback, the S&amp;P 500 remains up about 17% so far in 2021. Even as investors swooped in to buy the market’s latest dip, some Wall Street strategists are pointing to risks that could come with jumping into equities.<blockquote>尽管 9 月份有所回落，但 2021 年迄今为止，标普500仍上涨了约 17%。就在投资者蜂拥而至买入市场最新下跌的同时，一些华尔街策略师也指出了跳入股市可能带来的风险。</blockquote> Analysts at Capital Economics said in a note that rising energy prices could put more upward pressure on bond yields. A jump in yields roiled stocks in recent weeks, particularly tech shares.<blockquote>凯投宏观分析师在一份报告中表示，能源价格上涨可能会给债券收益率带来更大的上行压力。最近几周，收益率飙升扰乱了股市，尤其是科技股。</blockquote> If oil prices keep rising toward $100 a barrel, that “could continue to weigh on sentiment,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.<blockquote>道富环球顾问公司（State Street Global Advisors）首席投资策略师迈克尔-阿罗内（Michael Arone）表示，如果油价继续上涨至每桶 100 美元，“可能会继续打压市场情绪”。</blockquote> “If we break that barrier, I think it will influence how people are forecasting economic growth and inflation and interest rates, which has broad implications for sectors and industries and markets,” Arone said.<blockquote>“阿罗内说：”如果我们打破这一障碍，我认为这将影响人们如何预测经济增长、通胀和利率，这对各行业、行业和市场都有广泛的影响。</blockquote> As oil gained since late August, the S&amp;P 500 energy sector has increased 25% against a 1% drop for the overall index. Energy was the lone sector to post positive performance in September.<blockquote>随着油价自 8 月下旬以来上涨，标普500能源板块上涨了 25%，而整体指数下跌了 1%。能源是9月份唯一表现积极的行业。</blockquote> Oil vs U.S. stock market in 2021<blockquote>2021 年石油与美国股市</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d7c4ce5a654a003a3aa1b3ed060fc1\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The energy sector comprises less than 3% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500, however, and rising oil prices can raise fuel and other costs for companies such as transportation firms, while also threatening demand by leading consumers to pay more, such as for gas at the pump.<blockquote>然而，能源行业在标普500中所占份额不到 3%，油价上涨可能会提高运输公司等公司的燃料和其他成本，同时也会导致消费者支付更多费用（例如加油站的天然气），从而威胁需求。</blockquote> JPMorgan strategists in a note this week outlined a basket of stocks negatively impacted by oil at $100 a barrel, including package delivery company FedEx, discount retailer Dollar Tree and auto parts retailer O’Reilly Automotive.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师在本周的一份报告中概述了一篮子受到每桶 100 美元油价负面影响的股票，其中包括包裹递送公司联邦快递、折扣零售商 Dollar Tree 和汽车零部件零售商 O'Reilly Automotive。</blockquote> In a note last week, U.S. economists at Deutsche Bank said the 101-cent increase in gas prices from a year earlier would be expected to lead to a reduction in income that can be spent on non-energy items of about $120 billion.<blockquote>德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的美国经济学家在上周的一份报告中表示，汽油价格同比上涨101美分，预计将导致可用于非能源项目的收入减少约1200亿美元。</blockquote> However, the relative amount of consumer spending on gasoline and other energy expenditures has trended lower over the past 40 years, according to data from Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.<blockquote>然而，根据 Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 投资组合经理 Jack Janasiewicz 的数据，过去 40 年来，消费者在汽油和其他能源支出上的相对金额一直呈下降趋势。</blockquote> The percent of personal consumption expenditures devoted to gas and other energy spending has fallen from over 6% in the early 1980s to 2.35% most recently, Janasiewicz said.<blockquote>Janasiewicz 表示，用于天然气和其他能源支出的个人消费支出百分比已从 20 世纪 80 年代初的 6% 以上下降到最近的 2.35%。</blockquote> And JPMorgan strategists said markets would be able to digest oil at $130 a barrel, as the economy and consumer “were functioning just fine” over 2010-15, when oil averaged above $100.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，市场能够以每桶 130 美元的价格消化油价，因为在 2010-15 年期间，经济和消费者 “运转良好”，当时油价平均价格超过 100 美元。</blockquote> “We do not believe that the current price of energy will have a significant negative impact on the economy,” the strategists wrote.<blockquote>“策略师们写道：”我们认为目前的能源价格不会对经济产生重大负面影响。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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A truce in the U.S. Congress to avoid a debt default provided some relief, but investors remain worried about inflation, higher U.S. Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s plan to unwind its easy money policies.<blockquote>周一的下跌导致标普500从 9 月份的历史新高下跌 5.2%，本周股市出现反弹。美国的休战美国国会为避免债务违约提供了一些缓解，但投资者仍然担心通货膨胀、美国国债收益率上升以及美联储放松宽松货币政策的计划。</blockquote> Energy costs are a major factor for inflation, and will be a key topic as companies report third-quarter results in coming weeks. Oil prices have surged more than 25% since late August, with Brent topping $80 a barrel and hitting three-year highs. Natural gas prices in Europe have rocketed, causing alarm among political leaders.<blockquote>能源成本是通胀的一个主要因素，也将成为未来几周企业公布第三季度业绩时的一个关键话题。自8月下旬以来，油价飙升超过25%，布伦特原油突破每桶80美元，创下三年新高。欧洲天然气价格飙升，引起了政治领导人的恐慌。</blockquote> Oil prices have a “roughly neutral” affect on overall corporate earnings, according to Goldman Sachs strategists, with every 10% increase in Brent prices boosting S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 0.3%.<blockquote>高盛策略师表示，油价对企业整体盈利的影响 “大致中性 ”，布伦特原油价格每上涨 10%，标普500每股收益就会增长 0.3%。</blockquote> Energy shares have soared as crude prices climbed, yet higher prices could weigh on companies ranging from transportation to consumer discretionary firms.<blockquote>随着原油价格上涨，能源股飙升，但价格上涨可能会给从运输到非必需消费品公司等公司带来压力。</blockquote> “We are going to find out if this piece of the inflation puzzle is the straw that breaks the camel’s back and actually starts cutting into margins,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “There are incremental costs to everything when energy prices go up.”<blockquote>“国家证券公司（National Securities）首席市场策略师阿特-霍根（Art Hogan）说：”我们将找出通胀拼图的这块是否是压垮骆驼的稻草，并真正开始削减利润。“能源价格上涨时，一切都会增加成本”。</blockquote> Despite September’s pullback, the S&amp;P 500 remains up about 17% so far in 2021. Even as investors swooped in to buy the market’s latest dip, some Wall Street strategists are pointing to risks that could come with jumping into equities.<blockquote>尽管 9 月份有所回落，但 2021 年迄今为止，标普500仍上涨了约 17%。就在投资者蜂拥而至买入市场最新下跌的同时，一些华尔街策略师也指出了跳入股市可能带来的风险。</blockquote> Analysts at Capital Economics said in a note that rising energy prices could put more upward pressure on bond yields. A jump in yields roiled stocks in recent weeks, particularly tech shares.<blockquote>凯投宏观分析师在一份报告中表示，能源价格上涨可能会给债券收益率带来更大的上行压力。最近几周，收益率飙升扰乱了股市，尤其是科技股。</blockquote> If oil prices keep rising toward $100 a barrel, that “could continue to weigh on sentiment,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.<blockquote>道富环球顾问公司（State Street Global Advisors）首席投资策略师迈克尔-阿罗内（Michael Arone）表示，如果油价继续上涨至每桶 100 美元，“可能会继续打压市场情绪”。</blockquote> “If we break that barrier, I think it will influence how people are forecasting economic growth and inflation and interest rates, which has broad implications for sectors and industries and markets,” Arone said.<blockquote>“阿罗内说：”如果我们打破这一障碍，我认为这将影响人们如何预测经济增长、通胀和利率，这对各行业、行业和市场都有广泛的影响。</blockquote> As oil gained since late August, the S&amp;P 500 energy sector has increased 25% against a 1% drop for the overall index. Energy was the lone sector to post positive performance in September.<blockquote>随着油价自 8 月下旬以来上涨，标普500能源板块上涨了 25%，而整体指数下跌了 1%。能源是9月份唯一表现积极的行业。</blockquote> Oil vs U.S. stock market in 2021<blockquote>2021 年石油与美国股市</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d7c4ce5a654a003a3aa1b3ed060fc1\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> The energy sector comprises less than 3% of the weight of the S&amp;P 500, however, and rising oil prices can raise fuel and other costs for companies such as transportation firms, while also threatening demand by leading consumers to pay more, such as for gas at the pump.<blockquote>然而，能源行业在标普500中所占份额不到 3%，油价上涨可能会提高运输公司等公司的燃料和其他成本，同时也会导致消费者支付更多费用（例如加油站的天然气），从而威胁需求。</blockquote> JPMorgan strategists in a note this week outlined a basket of stocks negatively impacted by oil at $100 a barrel, including package delivery company FedEx, discount retailer Dollar Tree and auto parts retailer O’Reilly Automotive.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师在本周的一份报告中概述了一篮子受到每桶 100 美元油价负面影响的股票，其中包括包裹递送公司联邦快递、折扣零售商 Dollar Tree 和汽车零部件零售商 O'Reilly Automotive。</blockquote> In a note last week, U.S. economists at Deutsche Bank said the 101-cent increase in gas prices from a year earlier would be expected to lead to a reduction in income that can be spent on non-energy items of about $120 billion.<blockquote>德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的美国经济学家在上周的一份报告中表示，汽油价格同比上涨101美分，预计将导致可用于非能源项目的收入减少约1200亿美元。</blockquote> However, the relative amount of consumer spending on gasoline and other energy expenditures has trended lower over the past 40 years, according to data from Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.<blockquote>然而，根据 Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 投资组合经理 Jack Janasiewicz 的数据，过去 40 年来，消费者在汽油和其他能源支出上的相对金额一直呈下降趋势。</blockquote> The percent of personal consumption expenditures devoted to gas and other energy spending has fallen from over 6% in the early 1980s to 2.35% most recently, Janasiewicz said.<blockquote>Janasiewicz 表示，用于天然气和其他能源支出的个人消费支出百分比已从 20 世纪 80 年代初的 6% 以上下降到最近的 2.35%。</blockquote> And JPMorgan strategists said markets would be able to digest oil at $130 a barrel, as the economy and consumer “were functioning just fine” over 2010-15, when oil averaged above $100.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，市场能够以每桶 130 美元的价格消化油价，因为在 2010-15 年期间，经济和消费者 “运转良好”，当时油价平均价格超过 100 美元。</blockquote> “We do not believe that the current price of energy will have a significant negative impact on the economy,” the strategists wrote.<blockquote>“策略师们写道：”我们认为目前的能源价格不会对经济产生重大负面影响。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-weekahead/wall-st-week-ahead-energy-price-spike-adds-market-risk-as-earnings-arrive-idUSKBN2GY2AY\">Reuters</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-weekahead/wall-st-week-ahead-energy-price-spike-adds-market-risk-as-earnings-arrive-idUSKBN2GY2AY","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122559676","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock market investors are gauging whether more volatility is ahead because of surging global energy prices, which could drive up inflation, erode profit margins and pressure consumer spending.\nStocks rebounded this week after Monday’s losses left the S&P 500 down 5.2% from its record high hit in September. A truce in the U.S. Congress to avoid a debt default provided some relief, but investors remain worried about inflation, higher U.S. Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s plan to unwind its easy money policies.\nEnergy costs are a major factor for inflation, and will be a key topic as companies report third-quarter results in coming weeks. Oil prices have surged more than 25% since late August, with Brent topping $80 a barrel and hitting three-year highs. Natural gas prices in Europe have rocketed, causing alarm among political leaders.\nOil prices have a “roughly neutral” affect on overall corporate earnings, according to Goldman Sachs strategists, with every 10% increase in Brent prices boosting S&P 500 earnings per share by 0.3%.\nEnergy shares have soared as crude prices climbed, yet higher prices could weigh on companies ranging from transportation to consumer discretionary firms.\n“We are going to find out if this piece of the inflation puzzle is the straw that breaks the camel’s back and actually starts cutting into margins,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “There are incremental costs to everything when energy prices go up.”\nDespite September’s pullback, the S&P 500 remains up about 17% so far in 2021. Even as investors swooped in to buy the market’s latest dip, some Wall Street strategists are pointing to risks that could come with jumping into equities.\nAnalysts at Capital Economics said in a note that rising energy prices could put more upward pressure on bond yields. A jump in yields roiled stocks in recent weeks, particularly tech shares.\nIf oil prices keep rising toward $100 a barrel, that “could continue to weigh on sentiment,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.\n“If we break that barrier, I think it will influence how people are forecasting economic growth and inflation and interest rates, which has broad implications for sectors and industries and markets,” Arone said.\nAs oil gained since late August, the S&P 500 energy sector has increased 25% against a 1% drop for the overall index. Energy was the lone sector to post positive performance in September.\nOil vs U.S. stock market in 2021\n\nThe energy sector comprises less than 3% of the weight of the S&P 500, however, and rising oil prices can raise fuel and other costs for companies such as transportation firms, while also threatening demand by leading consumers to pay more, such as for gas at the pump.\nJPMorgan strategists in a note this week outlined a basket of stocks negatively impacted by oil at $100 a barrel, including package delivery company FedEx, discount retailer Dollar Tree and auto parts retailer O’Reilly Automotive.\nIn a note last week, U.S. economists at Deutsche Bank said the 101-cent increase in gas prices from a year earlier would be expected to lead to a reduction in income that can be spent on non-energy items of about $120 billion.\nHowever, the relative amount of consumer spending on gasoline and other energy expenditures has trended lower over the past 40 years, according to data from Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.\nThe percent of personal consumption expenditures devoted to gas and other energy spending has fallen from over 6% in the early 1980s to 2.35% most recently, Janasiewicz said.\nAnd JPMorgan strategists said markets would be able to digest oil at $130 a barrel, as the economy and consumer “were functioning just fine” over 2010-15, when oil averaged above $100.\n“We do not believe that the current price of energy will have a significant negative impact on the economy,” the strategists wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821611197"}