Good_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-10-09

Good

S&P 500 Q3 2021 Preview: All Eyes On Earnings Momentum<blockquote>标普500␠2021␠年第三季度预览：所有人都在关注盈利势头</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":821256893,"tweetId":"821256893","gmtCreate":1633750664718,"gmtModify":1633750664913,"author":{"id":3577607521999934,"idStr":"3577607521999934","authorId":3577607521999934,"authorIdStr":"3577607521999934","name":"YCGan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good</body></html>","text":"Good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821256893","repostId":1188154394,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188154394","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633750102,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188154394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 11:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 Q3 2021 Preview: All Eyes On Earnings Momentum<blockquote>标普500␠2021␠年第三季度预览：所有人都在关注盈利势头</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188154394","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAs we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blisterin","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>As we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations.</li> <li>The key question is, can this momentum be maintained?</li> <li>To this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30th to 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline.</li> </ul> As we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations. The key question is, can this momentum be maintained?<blockquote><ul><li>随着我们进入 21Q3 财报季，市场参与者和分析师注意到盈利增长速度极快，公司比例超出分析师预期，创历史新高。</li><li>关键问题是，这种势头能否保持下去？</li><li>至此，21Q3 盈利增长预期在过去两个月中保持平稳，从 7 月 30 日的 29.7% 变为 10 月 1 日的 29.4%，下降了 0.3 个百分点。</li></ul>随着我们进入 21Q3 财报季，市场参与者和分析师注意到盈利增长速度极快，公司比例超出分析师预期，创历史新高。关键问题是，这种势头能否保持下去？</blockquote> The current 21Q3 earnings growth rate of 29.4% will certainly mark the beginning of a transition to more reasonable year-over-year (YoY) growth rates off the back of a historical 21Q1 and 21Q2 earnings season where YoY earnings growth was 52.8% and 96.3% respectively. This is shown in Exhibit 1.<blockquote>当前 21Q3 盈利增长率为 29.4%，这无疑标志着在历史上的 21Q1 和 21Q2 盈利季（同比盈利增长率分别为 52.8% 和 96.3%）之后，向更合理的同比 (YoY) 增长率过渡的开始。这如图1所示。</blockquote> Exhibit 1: S&amp;P 500 YoY Growth Rates<blockquote>图表1：标普500同比增长率</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b40fb52d5da521d7a8b1187d6687d5\" tg-width=\"1031\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Of the 17 companies that have reported thus far, 82.4% have beat analyst expectations, which is below the prior four quarter average of 84.7% but still well above the long-term average of 65.8%. More interesting is that the magnitude of the beat as defined by the earnings surprise factor is only 5.2%, which is well below the prior-four quarter average of 18.3% and more in line with the long-term average surprise factor of 4.0%.<blockquote>在迄今为止发布报告的 17 家公司中，82.4% 的业绩超出了分析师预期，低于前四个季度的平均水平 84.7%，但仍远高于 65.8% 的长期平均水平。更有趣的是，盈利意外系数定义的节拍幅度仅为5.2%，远低于前四季度18.3%的平均水平，更符合4.0%的长期平均意外系数。</blockquote> While it is still early into the reporting period, if the surprise factor remains around this level, we may likely see a muted improvement in earnings growth as the quarter progresses. This will be in sharp contrast to 21Q2 and 21Q3 where earnings growth dramatically improved throughout the quarter by 28.5 and 30.8 percentage points (ppts) respectively.<blockquote>虽然现在仍处于报告期早期，但如果意外因素保持在这一水平左右，随着季度的进展，我们可能会看到盈利增长略有改善。这与 21Q2 和 21Q3 形成鲜明对比，整个季度的盈利增长分别大幅改善了 28.5 和 30.8 个百分点 (ppts)。</blockquote> To this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30thto 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline as shown in Exhibit 2. In a typical quarter, YoY growth expectations decline by an average of 3.3 percentage points (ppts) from the start of the quarter to the start of earnings season.<blockquote>至此，21Q3 盈利增长预期在过去两个月中保持平稳，从 7 月 30 日的 29.7% 变为 10 月 1 日的 29.4%，下降了 0.3 个百分点，如图 2 所示。在典型的季度中，从季度开始到财报季开始，同比增长预期平均下降 3.3 个百分点 (ppts)。</blockquote> This is a sharp contrast from 20Q3-21Q2, where earnings growth improved heading into earnings season as analyst estimates had been overly pessimistic during the height of the pandemic.<blockquote>这与 20Q3-21Q2 形成鲜明对比，由于分析师的预测在疫情高峰期过于悲观，进入财报季后盈利增长有所改善。</blockquote> Perhaps the change in behavior this quarter can be attributed to heightened reservation amongst analysts in excessively raising estimates, given the current headwinds of the delta variant, supply chain bottlenecks and rising inflation.<blockquote>鉴于当前德尔塔变异毒株、供应链瓶颈和通胀上升的不利因素，本季度行为的变化或许可以归因于分析师对过度上调预期的高度保留。</blockquote> Exhibit 2:S&amp;P 500 Growth Rate Change Heading into Earnings Season<blockquote>图表2：进入财报季时标准普尔500指数增长率变化</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d3e6b4a0c4c588e2991746383127c3\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> High expectations for energy<blockquote>对能源的高期望</blockquote> Energy has seen the largest improvement in earnings growth rate since July 30, improving 38.5 ppts followed by Materials (8.1 ppts), and Information Technology (1.8 ppts).<blockquote>自 7 月 30 日以来，能源行业的盈利增长率增幅最大，增幅为 38.5 个百分点，其次是材料行业（8.1 个百分点）和信息技术行业（1.8 个百分点）。</blockquote> Exhibit 3 highlights the 21Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates at an index and sector level. The Energy growth rate is currently 1,391.9%, which is the highest growth rate out of the 11 sectors and is expected to be the largest YoY growth rate for the sector since Refinitiv has tracked this data.<blockquote>图表 3 重点介绍了指数和行业层面的 21Q3 盈利和收入增长率。能源增长率目前为1,391.9%，是11个行业中增长率最高的，预计将是路孚特追踪该数据以来该行业最大的同比增长率。</blockquote> Exhibit 3: S&amp;P 500 21Q3 Growth Rates<blockquote>图表3：标普500 21Q3增长率</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a525dbb50a9f85aee2940d95303a292\" tg-width=\"1312\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: S&amp;P 500 Earnings Scorecard (Oct 1)<blockquote>资料来源：标普500盈利记分卡（10 月 1 日）</blockquote> While the large growth rate in large part is due to a collapse in oil prices last year, the sector is still expected to deliver this quarter or we can expect a sharp reaction. From an earnings contribution perspective, the sector is currently forecasted to contribute 6.62 ppts towards the index growth rate of 29.4%, the largest of any sector.<blockquote>虽然高增长率在很大程度上是由于去年油价暴跌，但该行业仍有望在本季度实现增长，否则我们可以预期会出现强烈反应。从盈利贡献的角度来看，该行业目前预计将为29.4%的指数增长率贡献6.62个百分点，是所有行业中最大的。</blockquote> This is followed by Information Technology (6.38 ppts) and Industrials (4.15 ppts). These three sectors alone are expected to contribute 17.2 ppt to the 29.4% 21Q3 earnings growth rate, which is over half of the expected contribution towards the overall index growth rate.<blockquote>其次是信息技术（6.38 ppts）和工业（4.15 ppts）。仅这三个行业预计就将对 21Q3 29.4% 的盈利增长率贡献 17.2 ppt，超过对整体指数增长率预期贡献的一半以上。</blockquote> The Energy sector will be in the limelight for the next few quarters as well, as 21Q4 YoY earnings growth is currently forecasted at a remarkable 4,933.1% and 22Q1 YoY growth of 105.6% which again will both rank the sector with the highest growth rates. This period will be reminiscent of 2017-2018 where the Energy sector consistently had the highest YoY earnings growth rate of all sectors.<blockquote>能源行业也将在未来几个季度成为焦点，因为目前预计 21Q4 的盈利同比增长率为 4,933.1%，22Q1 的盈利同比增长率为 105.6%，这两个行业将再次成为增长率最高的行业。这一时期将让人想起 2017-2018 年，当时能源行业的同比盈利增长率一直是所有行业中最高的。</blockquote> Earnings watch in 21Q3<blockquote>21Q3 盈利观察</blockquote> There are a handful of constituents that will be largely responsible for delivering 21Q3 earnings growth. Exhibit 4 highlights the top 20 constituents that have the largest earnings contribution (PPT) along with the expected report date, mean estimate,SmartEstimate, and Predicted Surprise (PS).<blockquote>有少数几个组成部分将在很大程度上推动 21Q3 的盈利增长。图表 4 突出显示了收益贡献最大 (PPT) 的前 20 个成分股，以及预期报告日期、平均估计、SmartEstimate 和预测意外 (PS)。</blockquote> This basket of constituents is currently expected to contribute 16.1 ppt towards the current forecasted 21Q3 index level earnings growth rate of 29.4%, which is just under 55%.<blockquote>目前预计该篮子成分股将为当前预测的 21Q3 指数水平盈利增长率 29.4%（略低于 55%）贡献 16.1 ppt。</blockquote> Exhibit 4: 21Q3 Earnings Watch<blockquote>图表 4:21Q3 收益观察</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89455116c10719752665c78c2b001ed\" tg-width=\"1801\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Most constituents in this basket come from Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Apple Inc. (AAPL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) round up the top three largest PPT contributors.<blockquote>这个篮子中的大多数成分来自能源、金融、工业和材料。苹果公司 (AAPL)、埃克森美孚 (XOM) 和雪佛龙 (CVX) 是 PPT 的前三大贡献者。</blockquote> Paying attention to the PS will be important, as this will help predict any significant earnings surprise which will ultimately affect the trajectory of the index level growth rate.<blockquote>关注PS将很重要，因为这将有助于预测任何重大的盈利意外，最终将影响指数水平增长率的轨迹。</blockquote> The PS compares the StarMine SmartEstimate to the consensus mean. By overweighting analysts who are more accurate and timelier, the SmartEstimate provides a refined view into consensus. Comparing the SmartEstimate to the mean estimate leads to our PS, which accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprise 70% of the time when the PS is greater or less than 2% / -2%.<blockquote>PS将StarMine SmartEstimate与共识平均值进行比较。通过对更准确、更及时的分析师进行加权，SmartEstimate 提供了对共识的精炼视图。将SmartEstimate与平均估计值进行比较，可以得到我们的PS，当PS大于或小于2%/-2%时，它在70%的情况下准确预测收益意外的方向。</blockquote> Within this basket, 10 constituents are expected to post a positive earnings surprise while four constituents are expected to post a negative earnings surprise. American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines Holding Inc. (UAL), and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) all have a negative PS which will be worth paying attention to as any better-than-expected numbers will provide a material boost to the 21Q3 index growth rate.<blockquote>在这一篮子中，预计 10 个成分股将公布正收益意外，而 4 个成分股将公布负收益意外。美国航空集团 (AAL)、达美航空公司 (DAL)、联合航空控股公司 (UAL) 和凯撒娱乐公司 (CZR) 的 PS 均为负，值得关注，因为任何好于预期的数字都将为 21Q3 指数增长率提供实质性提振。</blockquote> A look at 2021 and 2022<blockquote>2021 年和 2022 年展望</blockquote> Using the EARN app in EIKON, we can see how 2021 and 2022 EPS estimates for sectors and the S&amp;P 500 overall have trended. In Exhibit 5, we show YoY growth rates for EPS for sectors and the S&amp;P 500 overall, as of one day ago, and then at 6/30/2021, 3/31/2021 and 12/31/2020.<blockquote>使用 EIKON 中的 EARN 应用程序，我们可以查看 2021 年和 2022 年各行业和标普500整体每股收益预测的趋势。在附表5中，我们显示了截至一天前，以及2021年6月30日、2021年3月31日和2020年12月31日各部门和标普500的每股收益同比增长率。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, given the strong YTD results, 2021E EPS for most sectors and the S&amp;P 500 overall have moved higher in each time period. The one exception is the industrials sector, which actually saw YoY growth estimates fall to a still-robust 90.3% in the most recent period from 110.5% at 6/30/2021, possibly due to the impact of rising commodity costs and supply chain disruptions. Overall, we see that earnings for the S&amp;P 500 are now expected to be up 44.7% YoY compared to the 24.4% growth rate expected at the end of last year.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于强劲的年初至今业绩，2021年大多数行业和整个标普500的每股收益在每个时间段都有所上升。一个例外是工业部门，该部门的同比增长预期实际上从2021年6月30日的110.5%降至最近一段时间仍然强劲的90.3%，可能是由于大宗商品成本上升和供应链中断的影响。总体而言，我们看到标普500的盈利目前预计将同比增长 44.7%，而去年年底预计的增长率为 24.4%。</blockquote> Exhibit 5: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth<blockquote>图表 5：EARN App 数据显示每股收益同比增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eebbb4657cb57f7678446b7320b7b9d\" tg-width=\"1723\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace<blockquote>资料来源：Refinitiv Eikon 工作区</blockquote> Interestingly, we see the opposite impact on 2022 YoY growth rates, with the expected growth rate falling to 9.2% from 16.0% at the end of 2021Q1 as per Exhibit 6.<blockquote>有趣的是，我们看到了对 2022 年同比增长率的相反影响，根据附表 6，预期增长率从 2021 年第一季度末的 16.0% 降至 9.2%。</blockquote> Exhibit 6: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth<blockquote>图表 6：EARN App 数据显示每股收益同比增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f89e4a3c94d175a319e268f74e5d735\" tg-width=\"1859\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace<blockquote>资料来源：Refinitiv Eikon 工作区</blockquote> While this would seem to imply that estimated earnings growth is expected to decline for the S&amp;P 500 in 2022, this is not actually the case. The bottom-up EPS calculation from our This Week In Earnings report&nbsp;shows that as of 10/1/2021, 2022 bottom-up EPS is expected to be $219.94/share which is up 12.7% from $195.14/share at the start of the year, but below the 20.0% growth in 2021 estimate over this same time period. The decline in earnings growth is a factor of the denominator (i.e., 2021 EPS) growing faster – as we show below in Exhibit 7.<blockquote>虽然这似乎意味着标普500 2022 年的盈利增长预计将下降，但事实并非如此。我们本周收益报告中的自下而上的每股收益计算显示，截至2021年10月1日，2022年自下而上的每股收益预计为219.94美元/股，比年初的195.14美元/股增长12.7%，但低于2021年同期20.0%的增长率。盈利增长的下降是分母（即2021年每股收益）增长更快的一个因素——如下表7所示。</blockquote> Exhibit 7: S&amp;P 500 Bottom-up EPS Estimates<blockquote>图表 7：标普500自下而上的每股收益估计</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9341d9d46dbb1c4a72f84605e3feb7e\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv<blockquote>资料来源：Refinitiv的I/B/E/S数据</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 Q3 2021 Preview: All Eyes On Earnings Momentum<blockquote>标普500␠2021␠年第三季度预览：所有人都在关注盈利势头</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 Q3 2021 Preview: All Eyes On Earnings Momentum<blockquote>标普500␠2021␠年第三季度预览：所有人都在关注盈利势头</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-10-09 11:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>As we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations.</li> <li>The key question is, can this momentum be maintained?</li> <li>To this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30th to 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline.</li> </ul> As we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations. The key question is, can this momentum be maintained?<blockquote><ul><li>随着我们进入 21Q3 财报季，市场参与者和分析师注意到盈利增长速度极快，公司比例超出分析师预期，创历史新高。</li><li>关键问题是，这种势头能否保持下去？</li><li>至此，21Q3 盈利增长预期在过去两个月中保持平稳，从 7 月 30 日的 29.7% 变为 10 月 1 日的 29.4%，下降了 0.3 个百分点。</li></ul>随着我们进入 21Q3 财报季，市场参与者和分析师注意到盈利增长速度极快，公司比例超出分析师预期，创历史新高。关键问题是，这种势头能否保持下去？</blockquote> The current 21Q3 earnings growth rate of 29.4% will certainly mark the beginning of a transition to more reasonable year-over-year (YoY) growth rates off the back of a historical 21Q1 and 21Q2 earnings season where YoY earnings growth was 52.8% and 96.3% respectively. This is shown in Exhibit 1.<blockquote>当前 21Q3 盈利增长率为 29.4%，这无疑标志着在历史上的 21Q1 和 21Q2 盈利季（同比盈利增长率分别为 52.8% 和 96.3%）之后，向更合理的同比 (YoY) 增长率过渡的开始。这如图1所示。</blockquote> Exhibit 1: S&amp;P 500 YoY Growth Rates<blockquote>图表1：标普500同比增长率</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b40fb52d5da521d7a8b1187d6687d5\" tg-width=\"1031\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Of the 17 companies that have reported thus far, 82.4% have beat analyst expectations, which is below the prior four quarter average of 84.7% but still well above the long-term average of 65.8%. More interesting is that the magnitude of the beat as defined by the earnings surprise factor is only 5.2%, which is well below the prior-four quarter average of 18.3% and more in line with the long-term average surprise factor of 4.0%.<blockquote>在迄今为止发布报告的 17 家公司中，82.4% 的业绩超出了分析师预期，低于前四个季度的平均水平 84.7%，但仍远高于 65.8% 的长期平均水平。更有趣的是，盈利意外系数定义的节拍幅度仅为5.2%，远低于前四季度18.3%的平均水平，更符合4.0%的长期平均意外系数。</blockquote> While it is still early into the reporting period, if the surprise factor remains around this level, we may likely see a muted improvement in earnings growth as the quarter progresses. This will be in sharp contrast to 21Q2 and 21Q3 where earnings growth dramatically improved throughout the quarter by 28.5 and 30.8 percentage points (ppts) respectively.<blockquote>虽然现在仍处于报告期早期，但如果意外因素保持在这一水平左右，随着季度的进展，我们可能会看到盈利增长略有改善。这与 21Q2 和 21Q3 形成鲜明对比，整个季度的盈利增长分别大幅改善了 28.5 和 30.8 个百分点 (ppts)。</blockquote> To this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30thto 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline as shown in Exhibit 2. In a typical quarter, YoY growth expectations decline by an average of 3.3 percentage points (ppts) from the start of the quarter to the start of earnings season.<blockquote>至此，21Q3 盈利增长预期在过去两个月中保持平稳，从 7 月 30 日的 29.7% 变为 10 月 1 日的 29.4%，下降了 0.3 个百分点，如图 2 所示。在典型的季度中，从季度开始到财报季开始，同比增长预期平均下降 3.3 个百分点 (ppts)。</blockquote> This is a sharp contrast from 20Q3-21Q2, where earnings growth improved heading into earnings season as analyst estimates had been overly pessimistic during the height of the pandemic.<blockquote>这与 20Q3-21Q2 形成鲜明对比，由于分析师的预测在疫情高峰期过于悲观，进入财报季后盈利增长有所改善。</blockquote> Perhaps the change in behavior this quarter can be attributed to heightened reservation amongst analysts in excessively raising estimates, given the current headwinds of the delta variant, supply chain bottlenecks and rising inflation.<blockquote>鉴于当前德尔塔变异毒株、供应链瓶颈和通胀上升的不利因素，本季度行为的变化或许可以归因于分析师对过度上调预期的高度保留。</blockquote> Exhibit 2:S&amp;P 500 Growth Rate Change Heading into Earnings Season<blockquote>图表2：进入财报季时标准普尔500指数增长率变化</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d3e6b4a0c4c588e2991746383127c3\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> High expectations for energy<blockquote>对能源的高期望</blockquote> Energy has seen the largest improvement in earnings growth rate since July 30, improving 38.5 ppts followed by Materials (8.1 ppts), and Information Technology (1.8 ppts).<blockquote>自 7 月 30 日以来，能源行业的盈利增长率增幅最大，增幅为 38.5 个百分点，其次是材料行业（8.1 个百分点）和信息技术行业（1.8 个百分点）。</blockquote> Exhibit 3 highlights the 21Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates at an index and sector level. The Energy growth rate is currently 1,391.9%, which is the highest growth rate out of the 11 sectors and is expected to be the largest YoY growth rate for the sector since Refinitiv has tracked this data.<blockquote>图表 3 重点介绍了指数和行业层面的 21Q3 盈利和收入增长率。能源增长率目前为1,391.9%，是11个行业中增长率最高的，预计将是路孚特追踪该数据以来该行业最大的同比增长率。</blockquote> Exhibit 3: S&amp;P 500 21Q3 Growth Rates<blockquote>图表3：标普500 21Q3增长率</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a525dbb50a9f85aee2940d95303a292\" tg-width=\"1312\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: S&amp;P 500 Earnings Scorecard (Oct 1)<blockquote>资料来源：标普500盈利记分卡（10 月 1 日）</blockquote> While the large growth rate in large part is due to a collapse in oil prices last year, the sector is still expected to deliver this quarter or we can expect a sharp reaction. From an earnings contribution perspective, the sector is currently forecasted to contribute 6.62 ppts towards the index growth rate of 29.4%, the largest of any sector.<blockquote>虽然高增长率在很大程度上是由于去年油价暴跌，但该行业仍有望在本季度实现增长，否则我们可以预期会出现强烈反应。从盈利贡献的角度来看，该行业目前预计将为29.4%的指数增长率贡献6.62个百分点，是所有行业中最大的。</blockquote> This is followed by Information Technology (6.38 ppts) and Industrials (4.15 ppts). These three sectors alone are expected to contribute 17.2 ppt to the 29.4% 21Q3 earnings growth rate, which is over half of the expected contribution towards the overall index growth rate.<blockquote>其次是信息技术（6.38 ppts）和工业（4.15 ppts）。仅这三个行业预计就将对 21Q3 29.4% 的盈利增长率贡献 17.2 ppt，超过对整体指数增长率预期贡献的一半以上。</blockquote> The Energy sector will be in the limelight for the next few quarters as well, as 21Q4 YoY earnings growth is currently forecasted at a remarkable 4,933.1% and 22Q1 YoY growth of 105.6% which again will both rank the sector with the highest growth rates. This period will be reminiscent of 2017-2018 where the Energy sector consistently had the highest YoY earnings growth rate of all sectors.<blockquote>能源行业也将在未来几个季度成为焦点，因为目前预计 21Q4 的盈利同比增长率为 4,933.1%，22Q1 的盈利同比增长率为 105.6%，这两个行业将再次成为增长率最高的行业。这一时期将让人想起 2017-2018 年，当时能源行业的同比盈利增长率一直是所有行业中最高的。</blockquote> Earnings watch in 21Q3<blockquote>21Q3 盈利观察</blockquote> There are a handful of constituents that will be largely responsible for delivering 21Q3 earnings growth. Exhibit 4 highlights the top 20 constituents that have the largest earnings contribution (PPT) along with the expected report date, mean estimate,SmartEstimate, and Predicted Surprise (PS).<blockquote>有少数几个组成部分将在很大程度上推动 21Q3 的盈利增长。图表 4 突出显示了收益贡献最大 (PPT) 的前 20 个成分股，以及预期报告日期、平均估计、SmartEstimate 和预测意外 (PS)。</blockquote> This basket of constituents is currently expected to contribute 16.1 ppt towards the current forecasted 21Q3 index level earnings growth rate of 29.4%, which is just under 55%.<blockquote>目前预计该篮子成分股将为当前预测的 21Q3 指数水平盈利增长率 29.4%（略低于 55%）贡献 16.1 ppt。</blockquote> Exhibit 4: 21Q3 Earnings Watch<blockquote>图表 4:21Q3 收益观察</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89455116c10719752665c78c2b001ed\" tg-width=\"1801\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Most constituents in this basket come from Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Apple Inc. (AAPL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) round up the top three largest PPT contributors.<blockquote>这个篮子中的大多数成分来自能源、金融、工业和材料。苹果公司 (AAPL)、埃克森美孚 (XOM) 和雪佛龙 (CVX) 是 PPT 的前三大贡献者。</blockquote> Paying attention to the PS will be important, as this will help predict any significant earnings surprise which will ultimately affect the trajectory of the index level growth rate.<blockquote>关注PS将很重要，因为这将有助于预测任何重大的盈利意外，最终将影响指数水平增长率的轨迹。</blockquote> The PS compares the StarMine SmartEstimate to the consensus mean. By overweighting analysts who are more accurate and timelier, the SmartEstimate provides a refined view into consensus. Comparing the SmartEstimate to the mean estimate leads to our PS, which accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprise 70% of the time when the PS is greater or less than 2% / -2%.<blockquote>PS将StarMine SmartEstimate与共识平均值进行比较。通过对更准确、更及时的分析师进行加权，SmartEstimate 提供了对共识的精炼视图。将SmartEstimate与平均估计值进行比较，可以得到我们的PS，当PS大于或小于2%/-2%时，它在70%的情况下准确预测收益意外的方向。</blockquote> Within this basket, 10 constituents are expected to post a positive earnings surprise while four constituents are expected to post a negative earnings surprise. American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines Holding Inc. (UAL), and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) all have a negative PS which will be worth paying attention to as any better-than-expected numbers will provide a material boost to the 21Q3 index growth rate.<blockquote>在这一篮子中，预计 10 个成分股将公布正收益意外，而 4 个成分股将公布负收益意外。美国航空集团 (AAL)、达美航空公司 (DAL)、联合航空控股公司 (UAL) 和凯撒娱乐公司 (CZR) 的 PS 均为负，值得关注，因为任何好于预期的数字都将为 21Q3 指数增长率提供实质性提振。</blockquote> A look at 2021 and 2022<blockquote>2021 年和 2022 年展望</blockquote> Using the EARN app in EIKON, we can see how 2021 and 2022 EPS estimates for sectors and the S&amp;P 500 overall have trended. In Exhibit 5, we show YoY growth rates for EPS for sectors and the S&amp;P 500 overall, as of one day ago, and then at 6/30/2021, 3/31/2021 and 12/31/2020.<blockquote>使用 EIKON 中的 EARN 应用程序，我们可以查看 2021 年和 2022 年各行业和标普500整体每股收益预测的趋势。在附表5中，我们显示了截至一天前，以及2021年6月30日、2021年3月31日和2020年12月31日各部门和标普500的每股收益同比增长率。</blockquote> Not surprisingly, given the strong YTD results, 2021E EPS for most sectors and the S&amp;P 500 overall have moved higher in each time period. The one exception is the industrials sector, which actually saw YoY growth estimates fall to a still-robust 90.3% in the most recent period from 110.5% at 6/30/2021, possibly due to the impact of rising commodity costs and supply chain disruptions. Overall, we see that earnings for the S&amp;P 500 are now expected to be up 44.7% YoY compared to the 24.4% growth rate expected at the end of last year.<blockquote>毫不奇怪，鉴于强劲的年初至今业绩，2021年大多数行业和整个标普500的每股收益在每个时间段都有所上升。一个例外是工业部门，该部门的同比增长预期实际上从2021年6月30日的110.5%降至最近一段时间仍然强劲的90.3%，可能是由于大宗商品成本上升和供应链中断的影响。总体而言，我们看到标普500的盈利目前预计将同比增长 44.7%，而去年年底预计的增长率为 24.4%。</blockquote> Exhibit 5: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth<blockquote>图表 5：EARN App 数据显示每股收益同比增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eebbb4657cb57f7678446b7320b7b9d\" tg-width=\"1723\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace<blockquote>资料来源：Refinitiv Eikon 工作区</blockquote> Interestingly, we see the opposite impact on 2022 YoY growth rates, with the expected growth rate falling to 9.2% from 16.0% at the end of 2021Q1 as per Exhibit 6.<blockquote>有趣的是，我们看到了对 2022 年同比增长率的相反影响，根据附表 6，预期增长率从 2021 年第一季度末的 16.0% 降至 9.2%。</blockquote> Exhibit 6: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth<blockquote>图表 6：EARN App 数据显示每股收益同比增长</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f89e4a3c94d175a319e268f74e5d735\" tg-width=\"1859\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace<blockquote>资料来源：Refinitiv Eikon 工作区</blockquote> While this would seem to imply that estimated earnings growth is expected to decline for the S&amp;P 500 in 2022, this is not actually the case. The bottom-up EPS calculation from our This Week In Earnings report&nbsp;shows that as of 10/1/2021, 2022 bottom-up EPS is expected to be $219.94/share which is up 12.7% from $195.14/share at the start of the year, but below the 20.0% growth in 2021 estimate over this same time period. The decline in earnings growth is a factor of the denominator (i.e., 2021 EPS) growing faster – as we show below in Exhibit 7.<blockquote>虽然这似乎意味着标普500 2022 年的盈利增长预计将下降，但事实并非如此。我们本周收益报告中的自下而上的每股收益计算显示，截至2021年10月1日，2022年自下而上的每股收益预计为219.94美元/股，比年初的195.14美元/股增长12.7%，但低于2021年同期20.0%的增长率。盈利增长的下降是分母（即2021年每股收益）增长更快的一个因素——如下表7所示。</blockquote> Exhibit 7: S&amp;P 500 Bottom-up EPS Estimates<blockquote>图表 7：标普500自下而上的每股收益估计</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9341d9d46dbb1c4a72f84605e3feb7e\" tg-width=\"723\" tg-height=\"162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv<blockquote>资料来源：Refinitiv的I/B/E/S数据</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459019-s-and-p-500-q3-2021-preview-all-eyes-earnings-momentum\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459019-s-and-p-500-q3-2021-preview-all-eyes-earnings-momentum","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188154394","content_text":"Summary\n\nAs we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations.\nThe key question is, can this momentum be maintained?\nTo this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30th to 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline.\n\nAs we enter 21Q3 earnings season, market participants and analysts are noting the blistering pace of earnings growth and the record percentage of companies beating analyst expectations. The key question is, can this momentum be maintained?\nThe current 21Q3 earnings growth rate of 29.4% will certainly mark the beginning of a transition to more reasonable year-over-year (YoY) growth rates off the back of a historical 21Q1 and 21Q2 earnings season where YoY earnings growth was 52.8% and 96.3% respectively. This is shown in Exhibit 1.\nExhibit 1: S&P 500 YoY Growth Rates\n\nOf the 17 companies that have reported thus far, 82.4% have beat analyst expectations, which is below the prior four quarter average of 84.7% but still well above the long-term average of 65.8%. More interesting is that the magnitude of the beat as defined by the earnings surprise factor is only 5.2%, which is well below the prior-four quarter average of 18.3% and more in line with the long-term average surprise factor of 4.0%.\nWhile it is still early into the reporting period, if the surprise factor remains around this level, we may likely see a muted improvement in earnings growth as the quarter progresses. This will be in sharp contrast to 21Q2 and 21Q3 where earnings growth dramatically improved throughout the quarter by 28.5 and 30.8 percentage points (ppts) respectively.\nTo this point, 21Q3 earnings growth expectations have remained flat over the last two months having changed from 29.7% on July 30thto 29.4% on Oct. 1, a 0.3 ppts decline as shown in Exhibit 2. In a typical quarter, YoY growth expectations decline by an average of 3.3 percentage points (ppts) from the start of the quarter to the start of earnings season.\nThis is a sharp contrast from 20Q3-21Q2, where earnings growth improved heading into earnings season as analyst estimates had been overly pessimistic during the height of the pandemic.\nPerhaps the change in behavior this quarter can be attributed to heightened reservation amongst analysts in excessively raising estimates, given the current headwinds of the delta variant, supply chain bottlenecks and rising inflation.\nExhibit 2:S&P 500 Growth Rate Change Heading into Earnings Season\n\nHigh expectations for energy\nEnergy has seen the largest improvement in earnings growth rate since July 30, improving 38.5 ppts followed by Materials (8.1 ppts), and Information Technology (1.8 ppts).\nExhibit 3 highlights the 21Q3 earnings and revenue growth rates at an index and sector level. The Energy growth rate is currently 1,391.9%, which is the highest growth rate out of the 11 sectors and is expected to be the largest YoY growth rate for the sector since Refinitiv has tracked this data.\nExhibit 3: S&P 500 21Q3 Growth Rates\nSource: S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard (Oct 1)\nWhile the large growth rate in large part is due to a collapse in oil prices last year, the sector is still expected to deliver this quarter or we can expect a sharp reaction. From an earnings contribution perspective, the sector is currently forecasted to contribute 6.62 ppts towards the index growth rate of 29.4%, the largest of any sector.\nThis is followed by Information Technology (6.38 ppts) and Industrials (4.15 ppts). These three sectors alone are expected to contribute 17.2 ppt to the 29.4% 21Q3 earnings growth rate, which is over half of the expected contribution towards the overall index growth rate.\nThe Energy sector will be in the limelight for the next few quarters as well, as 21Q4 YoY earnings growth is currently forecasted at a remarkable 4,933.1% and 22Q1 YoY growth of 105.6% which again will both rank the sector with the highest growth rates. This period will be reminiscent of 2017-2018 where the Energy sector consistently had the highest YoY earnings growth rate of all sectors.\nEarnings watch in 21Q3\nThere are a handful of constituents that will be largely responsible for delivering 21Q3 earnings growth. Exhibit 4 highlights the top 20 constituents that have the largest earnings contribution (PPT) along with the expected report date, mean estimate,SmartEstimate, and Predicted Surprise (PS).\nThis basket of constituents is currently expected to contribute 16.1 ppt towards the current forecasted 21Q3 index level earnings growth rate of 29.4%, which is just under 55%.\nExhibit 4: 21Q3 Earnings Watch\n\nMost constituents in this basket come from Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. Apple Inc. (AAPL), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) round up the top three largest PPT contributors.\nPaying attention to the PS will be important, as this will help predict any significant earnings surprise which will ultimately affect the trajectory of the index level growth rate.\nThe PS compares the StarMine SmartEstimate to the consensus mean. By overweighting analysts who are more accurate and timelier, the SmartEstimate provides a refined view into consensus. Comparing the SmartEstimate to the mean estimate leads to our PS, which accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprise 70% of the time when the PS is greater or less than 2% / -2%.\nWithin this basket, 10 constituents are expected to post a positive earnings surprise while four constituents are expected to post a negative earnings surprise. American Airlines Group (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines Holding Inc. (UAL), and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) all have a negative PS which will be worth paying attention to as any better-than-expected numbers will provide a material boost to the 21Q3 index growth rate.\nA look at 2021 and 2022\nUsing the EARN app in EIKON, we can see how 2021 and 2022 EPS estimates for sectors and the S&P 500 overall have trended. In Exhibit 5, we show YoY growth rates for EPS for sectors and the S&P 500 overall, as of one day ago, and then at 6/30/2021, 3/31/2021 and 12/31/2020.\nNot surprisingly, given the strong YTD results, 2021E EPS for most sectors and the S&P 500 overall have moved higher in each time period. The one exception is the industrials sector, which actually saw YoY growth estimates fall to a still-robust 90.3% in the most recent period from 110.5% at 6/30/2021, possibly due to the impact of rising commodity costs and supply chain disruptions. Overall, we see that earnings for the S&P 500 are now expected to be up 44.7% YoY compared to the 24.4% growth rate expected at the end of last year.\nExhibit 5: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth\nSource: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace\nInterestingly, we see the opposite impact on 2022 YoY growth rates, with the expected growth rate falling to 9.2% from 16.0% at the end of 2021Q1 as per Exhibit 6.\nExhibit 6: EARN App Data for YoY EPS Growth\nSource: Refinitiv Eikon Workspace\nWhile this would seem to imply that estimated earnings growth is expected to decline for the S&P 500 in 2022, this is not actually the case. The bottom-up EPS calculation from our This Week In Earnings report shows that as of 10/1/2021, 2022 bottom-up EPS is expected to be $219.94/share which is up 12.7% from $195.14/share at the start of the year, but below the 20.0% growth in 2021 estimate over this same time period. The decline in earnings growth is a factor of the denominator (i.e., 2021 EPS) growing faster – as we show below in Exhibit 7.\nExhibit 7: S&P 500 Bottom-up EPS Estimates\nSource: I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821256893"}