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2021-10-08

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Stock Market Bottoms Look A Lot Alike; Here's How To Identify One<blockquote>股市底部看起来非常相似；以下是如何识别一个</blockquote>

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That's just not true.<blockquote>股市最大的谬误之一是投资者无法把握市场时机并识别市场底部。那不是真的。</blockquote> Throughout market history, a specific signal — called the follow-through — has appeared at every stock market bottom.<blockquote>纵观市场历史，每个股市底部都会出现一个特定的信号——称为跟进信号。</blockquote> A 40%-plus gain for the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> composite last year, for example, started with a follow-through day on April 6, 2020.<blockquote>收益超过 40%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>例如，去年的复合材料从 2020 年 4 月 6 日的跟进日开始。</blockquote> Stock Market Bottoms<blockquote>股市底部</blockquote> To identify this signal, start by looking for an initial rally attempt in the Nasdaq or S&amp;P 500. Any rebound from an index low will do. It can be a 0.1% gain or a 1% gain. As long as the index holds above its latest low, the rally attempt is intact.<blockquote>要识别这一信号，首先在纳斯达克或标普500寻找最初的反弹尝试。任何从指数低点反弹都会起作用。可以是0.1%的增益，也可以是1%的增益。只要指数保持在最新低点上方，反弹尝试就完好无损。</blockquote> Short-covering can give the market a temporary boost. So wait for the first three days to pass, and look for a follow-through on the fourth day or later of a rally attempt.<blockquote>空头回补可以给市场带来暂时的提振。因此，等待前三天过去，并在第四天或之后的反弹尝试中寻找后续行动。</blockquote> The follow-through will come in the form of a big percentage gain — at least 1.2% but preferably more — in higher volume than the previous session.<blockquote>后续将以比前一交易日更高的交易量大幅增长的形式出现——至少 1.2%，但最好更多。</blockquote> Higher volume is important because you want to see signs of institutional buying in the early stages of a new uptrend.<blockquote>较高的成交量很重要，因为您希望在新上升趋势的早期阶段看到机构买入的迹象。</blockquote> Of course, follow-through days don't have a 100% success rate. The ones that fail often show signs of distribution soon after the follow-through day. Adistribution dayis a higher-volume decline for an index, and it's a sign of institutional selling.<blockquote>当然，跟进日没有100%的成功率。失败的通常在随访日之后不久就显示出分布的迹象。分配日是指数成交量较高的下跌，也是机构抛售的迹象。</blockquote> The strongest follow-throughs tend to occur after a big drop in the stock indexes. Follow-throughs after a quick 5% pullback might not work as well as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that occurs after a 10% sell-off. The Nasdaq's follow-through day in April 2020 came after a harsh 30% bear market for the index.<blockquote>最强劲的跟进往往发生在股指大幅下跌之后。快速回调 5% 后的后续行动可能效果不佳<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>这种情况发生在 10% 的抛售之后。纳斯达克指数在 2020 年 4 月的跟进日是在该指数经历了 30% 的严酷熊市之后发生的。</blockquote> Recent Follow-Through Days<blockquote>最近的跟进天数</blockquote> In the second half of 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back 13% starting in September. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only index to follow through after that pullback. It rose 1.2% in higher volume on Sept. 30 on the fifth day of its rally attempt. But the follow-through day didn't have much staying power. Usually, follow-throughs happen on the Nasdaq or S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>2020年下半年，纳斯达克从9月份开始回调了13%。但道琼斯工业平均指数是此次回调后唯一遵循的指数。9 月 30 日，在尝试反弹的第五天，该股成交量上涨 1.2%。但是后续的一天并没有太多的持久力。通常，跟进会在纳斯达克或标普500上进行。</blockquote> In mid-October 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back sharply again, which ultimately spawned follow-through days for the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500. The S&amp;P 500 followed through first with a big percentage gain in higher volume Nov. 4(1)&nbsp;as volume rose from the prior day(2).<blockquote>2020年10月中旬，纳斯达克再次大幅回调，最终导致纳斯达克和标普500出现后续行动。标普500紧随其后，11 月 4 日成交量大幅上涨(1)由于成交量较前一天有所增加(2).</blockquote> That was three days from its low. Wasn't that too soon, since the signal comes at least four days from a low? In this case, the S&amp;P 500's close in the upper half of the bottoming day's range served as Day 1 of the rally attempt.<blockquote>距离低点还有三天。这不是太早了吗，因为信号距离低点至少还有四天？在这种情况下，标准普尔 500 指数在底部区间上半部分的收盘价是反弹尝试的第一天。</blockquote> The Nasdaq followed through on the fifth day of its rally attempt, rising 2.6% in higher volume Nov. 5.<blockquote>纳斯达克在第五天上涨，11 月 5 日成交量上涨 2.6%。</blockquote> The follow-through days worked well, helped by a large number of technology stocks that were coming out bases at the time like&nbsp;Palantir Technologies(PLTR), which joined&nbsp;IBD Leaderboardwhen it broke out of an IPO base Nov. 5. Other notable breakouts around that time included&nbsp;Atlassian(TEAM),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESI\">Element Solutions</a>(ESI) and&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA).<blockquote>跟进日进展顺利，这得益于当时大量科技股的推出，例如帕兰蒂尔技术公司(PLTR) 于 11 月 5 日突破 IPO 基础后加入了 IBD 排行榜。当时其他值得注意的突破包括阿特拉斯（团队），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESI\">元素溶液</a>（ESI）和特斯拉（特斯拉）。</blockquote> Remember that follow-through days tend to work best when the market serves up plenty of actionable setups among top-rated growth stocks. The reason the April 2020 follow-through days worked so well was because of strong breakouts from likes of current Leaderboard stocks like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>.<blockquote>请记住，当市场在顶级成长型股票中提供大量可操作的设置时，跟进日往往效果最佳。2020 年 4 月的后续行动之所以如此顺利，是因为当前排行榜股票的强劲突破，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">服务现在</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达公司</a>.</blockquote> Also keep in mind that new leaders can emerge several weeks after a follow-through.<blockquote>还要记住，新的领导者可能会在跟进几周后出现。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Bottoms Look A Lot Alike; Here's How To Identify One<blockquote>股市底部看起来非常相似；以下是如何识别一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Bottoms Look A Lot Alike; Here's How To Identify One<blockquote>股市底部看起来非常相似；以下是如何识别一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\ninvestors2021-10-08 22:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOne of the biggest stock market fallacies is that investors can't time the market and identify market bottoms. That's just not true.<blockquote>股市最大的谬误之一是投资者无法把握市场时机并识别市场底部。那不是真的。</blockquote> Throughout market history, a specific signal — called the follow-through — has appeared at every stock market bottom.<blockquote>纵观市场历史，每个股市底部都会出现一个特定的信号——称为跟进信号。</blockquote> A 40%-plus gain for the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> composite last year, for example, started with a follow-through day on April 6, 2020.<blockquote>收益超过 40%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>例如，去年的复合材料从 2020 年 4 月 6 日的跟进日开始。</blockquote> Stock Market Bottoms<blockquote>股市底部</blockquote> To identify this signal, start by looking for an initial rally attempt in the Nasdaq or S&amp;P 500. Any rebound from an index low will do. It can be a 0.1% gain or a 1% gain. As long as the index holds above its latest low, the rally attempt is intact.<blockquote>要识别这一信号，首先在纳斯达克或标普500寻找最初的反弹尝试。任何从指数低点反弹都会起作用。可以是0.1%的增益，也可以是1%的增益。只要指数保持在最新低点上方，反弹尝试就完好无损。</blockquote> Short-covering can give the market a temporary boost. So wait for the first three days to pass, and look for a follow-through on the fourth day or later of a rally attempt.<blockquote>空头回补可以给市场带来暂时的提振。因此，等待前三天过去，并在第四天或之后的反弹尝试中寻找后续行动。</blockquote> The follow-through will come in the form of a big percentage gain — at least 1.2% but preferably more — in higher volume than the previous session.<blockquote>后续将以比前一交易日更高的交易量大幅增长的形式出现——至少 1.2%，但最好更多。</blockquote> Higher volume is important because you want to see signs of institutional buying in the early stages of a new uptrend.<blockquote>较高的成交量很重要，因为您希望在新上升趋势的早期阶段看到机构买入的迹象。</blockquote> Of course, follow-through days don't have a 100% success rate. The ones that fail often show signs of distribution soon after the follow-through day. Adistribution dayis a higher-volume decline for an index, and it's a sign of institutional selling.<blockquote>当然，跟进日没有100%的成功率。失败的通常在随访日之后不久就显示出分布的迹象。分配日是指数成交量较高的下跌，也是机构抛售的迹象。</blockquote> The strongest follow-throughs tend to occur after a big drop in the stock indexes. Follow-throughs after a quick 5% pullback might not work as well as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that occurs after a 10% sell-off. The Nasdaq's follow-through day in April 2020 came after a harsh 30% bear market for the index.<blockquote>最强劲的跟进往往发生在股指大幅下跌之后。快速回调 5% 后的后续行动可能效果不佳<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>这种情况发生在 10% 的抛售之后。纳斯达克指数在 2020 年 4 月的跟进日是在该指数经历了 30% 的严酷熊市之后发生的。</blockquote> Recent Follow-Through Days<blockquote>最近的跟进天数</blockquote> In the second half of 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back 13% starting in September. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only index to follow through after that pullback. It rose 1.2% in higher volume on Sept. 30 on the fifth day of its rally attempt. But the follow-through day didn't have much staying power. Usually, follow-throughs happen on the Nasdaq or S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>2020年下半年，纳斯达克从9月份开始回调了13%。但道琼斯工业平均指数是此次回调后唯一遵循的指数。9 月 30 日，在尝试反弹的第五天，该股成交量上涨 1.2%。但是后续的一天并没有太多的持久力。通常，跟进会在纳斯达克或标普500上进行。</blockquote> In mid-October 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back sharply again, which ultimately spawned follow-through days for the Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500. The S&amp;P 500 followed through first with a big percentage gain in higher volume Nov. 4(1)&nbsp;as volume rose from the prior day(2).<blockquote>2020年10月中旬，纳斯达克再次大幅回调，最终导致纳斯达克和标普500出现后续行动。标普500紧随其后，11 月 4 日成交量大幅上涨(1)由于成交量较前一天有所增加(2).</blockquote> That was three days from its low. Wasn't that too soon, since the signal comes at least four days from a low? In this case, the S&amp;P 500's close in the upper half of the bottoming day's range served as Day 1 of the rally attempt.<blockquote>距离低点还有三天。这不是太早了吗，因为信号距离低点至少还有四天？在这种情况下，标准普尔 500 指数在底部区间上半部分的收盘价是反弹尝试的第一天。</blockquote> The Nasdaq followed through on the fifth day of its rally attempt, rising 2.6% in higher volume Nov. 5.<blockquote>纳斯达克在第五天上涨，11 月 5 日成交量上涨 2.6%。</blockquote> The follow-through days worked well, helped by a large number of technology stocks that were coming out bases at the time like&nbsp;Palantir Technologies(PLTR), which joined&nbsp;IBD Leaderboardwhen it broke out of an IPO base Nov. 5. Other notable breakouts around that time included&nbsp;Atlassian(TEAM),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESI\">Element Solutions</a>(ESI) and&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA).<blockquote>跟进日进展顺利，这得益于当时大量科技股的推出，例如帕兰蒂尔技术公司(PLTR) 于 11 月 5 日突破 IPO 基础后加入了 IBD 排行榜。当时其他值得注意的突破包括阿特拉斯（团队），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ESI\">元素溶液</a>（ESI）和特斯拉（特斯拉）。</blockquote> Remember that follow-through days tend to work best when the market serves up plenty of actionable setups among top-rated growth stocks. The reason the April 2020 follow-through days worked so well was because of strong breakouts from likes of current Leaderboard stocks like&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a>.<blockquote>请记住，当市场在顶级成长型股票中提供大量可操作的设置时，跟进日往往效果最佳。2020 年 4 月的后续行动之所以如此顺利，是因为当前排行榜股票的强劲突破，例如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">服务现在</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达公司</a>.</blockquote> Also keep in mind that new leaders can emerge several weeks after a follow-through.<blockquote>还要记住，新的领导者可能会在跟进几周后出现。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/stock-market-bottoms-look-a-lot-alike-how-to-identify-one/?src=A00220\">investors</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/stock-market-bottoms-look-a-lot-alike-how-to-identify-one/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171365793","content_text":"One of the biggest stock market fallacies is that investors can't time the market and identify market bottoms. That's just not true.\nThroughout market history, a specific signal — called the follow-through — has appeared at every stock market bottom.\nA 40%-plus gain for the Nasdaq composite last year, for example, started with a follow-through day on April 6, 2020.\nStock Market Bottoms\nTo identify this signal, start by looking for an initial rally attempt in the Nasdaq or S&P 500. Any rebound from an index low will do. It can be a 0.1% gain or a 1% gain. As long as the index holds above its latest low, the rally attempt is intact.\nShort-covering can give the market a temporary boost. So wait for the first three days to pass, and look for a follow-through on the fourth day or later of a rally attempt.\nThe follow-through will come in the form of a big percentage gain — at least 1.2% but preferably more — in higher volume than the previous session.\nHigher volume is important because you want to see signs of institutional buying in the early stages of a new uptrend.\nOf course, follow-through days don't have a 100% success rate. The ones that fail often show signs of distribution soon after the follow-through day. Adistribution dayis a higher-volume decline for an index, and it's a sign of institutional selling.\nThe strongest follow-throughs tend to occur after a big drop in the stock indexes. Follow-throughs after a quick 5% pullback might not work as well as one that occurs after a 10% sell-off. The Nasdaq's follow-through day in April 2020 came after a harsh 30% bear market for the index.\nRecent Follow-Through Days\nIn the second half of 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back 13% starting in September. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only index to follow through after that pullback. It rose 1.2% in higher volume on Sept. 30 on the fifth day of its rally attempt. But the follow-through day didn't have much staying power. Usually, follow-throughs happen on the Nasdaq or S&P 500.\nIn mid-October 2020, the Nasdaq pulled back sharply again, which ultimately spawned follow-through days for the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The S&P 500 followed through first with a big percentage gain in higher volume Nov. 4(1) as volume rose from the prior day(2).\nThat was three days from its low. Wasn't that too soon, since the signal comes at least four days from a low? In this case, the S&P 500's close in the upper half of the bottoming day's range served as Day 1 of the rally attempt.\nThe Nasdaq followed through on the fifth day of its rally attempt, rising 2.6% in higher volume Nov. 5.\nThe follow-through days worked well, helped by a large number of technology stocks that were coming out bases at the time like Palantir Technologies(PLTR), which joined IBD Leaderboardwhen it broke out of an IPO base Nov. 5. Other notable breakouts around that time included Atlassian(TEAM),Element Solutions(ESI) and Tesla(TSLA).\nRemember that follow-through days tend to work best when the market serves up plenty of actionable setups among top-rated growth stocks. The reason the April 2020 follow-through days worked so well was because of strong breakouts from likes of current Leaderboard stocks like Microsoft, PayPal, ServiceNow and NVIDIA Corp.\nAlso keep in mind that new leaders can emerge several weeks after a follow-through.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AONE.U":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/821191884"}