TheRealGSY
2021-08-27
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Netflix: Price Hikes Can't Go On Forever<blockquote>Netflix：涨价不可能永远持续下去</blockquote>
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The COVID-19 pandemic further aided this growth as more individuals were stuck inside and explored the vast video library the company holds while in quarantine, lockdown, or general isolation.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国和全球的用户增长飙升至历史新高，Netflix(NFLX)在过去几年中呈指数级增长。新冠肺炎疫情进一步促进了这一增长，因为越来越多的人被困在室内，并在隔离、封锁或一般隔离期间探索公司拥有的庞大视频库。</blockquote></p><p> However, now that global and US markets have begun becoming saturated with the limit of population growth driving subscriber growth as well as the vast number of competitors the company is facing, they are becoming more and more reliant on price increases to drive higher margins and net income, which they in turn can spend on new content which they hope can become enough of a sensation to drive subscriber growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，现在全球和美国市场已经开始饱和，人口增长对用户增长的限制以及该公司面临的大量竞争对手，他们越来越依赖价格上涨来推动更高的利润率和净收入，他们反过来可以将这些收入花在新内容上，他们希望这些内容能够引起足够的轰动来推动用户增长。</blockquote></p><p> This business model is nearly certain to produce solid and growing results for the company in the near future as streaming services remain extremely cheap at around $10 to $20 each month as we continue and see the transition away from the far more expensive cable and TV options. But the longer-term question is at what point does the company exhaust this price hiking measure and how does that fit in with the amount of investment it must make on content to stay a relevant player in this industry.</p><p><blockquote>这种商业模式几乎肯定会在不久的将来为公司带来稳健且不断增长的业绩，因为随着我们继续看到从昂贵得多的有线电视和电视选项的转变，流媒体服务仍然非常便宜，每月约10至20美元。但更长期的问题是，该公司在什么时候用尽这种提价措施，以及这如何适应它必须在内容上进行的投资额，以保持在该行业的相关参与者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outperforming Broader Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>跑赢大盘</b></blockquote></p><p> Netflix has easily outperformed the broader market since it changed its business model from the early days of DVD rentals and has returned over 1,650% over the past 10 years, while the S&P500 Index returned over 280%.</p><p><blockquote>自从Netflix改变了早期的DVD租赁业务模式以来，它的表现轻松跑赢了大盘，过去10年的回报率超过了1650%，而标准普尔500指数的回报率超过了280%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2523862734be22d9837a9f1678c3e8a0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This growth and outperformance were primarily driven by the surge in paid subscribers the company has seen over the better part of the past decade. Early on, they spent mountains of cash on content without seeing much profits but later on subscriber growth reached a comfortable level relative to the overall population, they put an emphasis on margins and profitability and are not reporting a steady profit stream.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长和优异表现主要是由该公司在过去十年的大部分时间里付费用户的激增推动的。早期，他们在内容上花费了大量现金，但没有看到太多利润，但后来订户增长相对于总人口达到了一个舒适的水平，他们强调利润率和盈利能力，并且没有报告稳定的利润流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb152d1ab44830cfb8b9fbd70e00269\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Statista -Netflix number of paying subscribers/ Company filings)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Statista-Netflix付费用户数量/公司备案）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, worldwide subscriber growth has been slowing a little in recent years as the company inevitably hits peaks in some domestic and international markets. I expect this to continue over the coming quarters as we see both a saturation in this growth organically but also as people return to work, there is bound to be a certain percentage of pandemic-era users which have not been big viewers before the lockdowns who minimize expenses by canceling their subscription.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，近年来全球用户增长略有放缓，因为该公司不可避免地在一些国内和国际市场达到峰值。我预计这种情况将在未来几个季度继续下去，因为我们看到这种增长的有机饱和，而且随着人们重返工作岗位，肯定会有一定比例的大流行时代的用户在封锁之前不是大观众，他们通过取消订阅来最大限度地减少费用。</blockquote></p><p> It is also noteworthy that there are now many applications and services, mostly from private companies, which help you manage your subscriptions and cancel them for you if they're inactive for a long period of time. There is certainly a set amount of paying Netflix subscribers who are not active and it's unclear if these cancellations will have any material effect but it does compound some of the other aforementioned subscriber growth issues.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，现在有许多应用程序和服务，主要来自私营公司，可以帮助您管理您的订阅，并在它们长时间不活动时为您取消订阅。当然，有一定数量的付费网飞订户不活跃，目前尚不清楚这些取消是否会产生任何实质性影响，但它确实加剧了上述其他一些订户增长问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Profitability set to surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利能力将飙升</b></blockquote></p><p> The near-term thesis derived from what I mentioned above is rather simple - the company currently charges just $10 to $20 a month for their streaming services, which in relative terms to cable TV or internet costs is very low. This means that they can, and likely will set price increases over the coming years and I believe that when doing so they won't be losing any significant number of subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>我上面提到的近期论点相当简单——该公司目前每月仅收取10至20美元的流媒体服务费用，相对于有线电视或互联网成本来说，这是非常低的。这意味着他们可以而且很可能会在未来几年提高价格，我相信这样做时他们不会失去任何大量的订户。</blockquote></p><p> I do believe, though, that a lot of these future price hikes are baked into current net income projections for the company and it's evident by those numbers that the company will enjoy much higher margins in the nearer term of 24 to 48 months. The question is, can that continue forever? I don't think so, but let's look at those projections and see where we go from here.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我确实相信，未来的大部分价格上涨都已纳入该公司当前的净利润预测中，从这些数字可以明显看出，该公司在24至48个月的近期内将享有更高的利润率。问题是，这种情况能永远持续下去吗？我不这么认为，但让我们看看这些预测，看看我们将何去何从。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company's sales are expected to double over the next 5 years, growing from $25 billion in 2020 to just over $50 billion by 2025, presenting a CAGR of 15.1%. This does indicate that the company will still see solid subscriber growth numbers in line with population growth and some organic growth as more of the world gets access to high-speed internet and develops a stronger non-poverty classes which tend to be the core base of the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的销售额预计将在未来5年内翻一番，从2020年的250亿美元增长到2025年略高于500亿美元，复合年增长率为15.1%。这确实表明，随着世界上更多的人接入高速互联网，并发展出更强大的非贫困阶层，该公司仍将看到与人口增长和一些有机增长一致的稳定用户增长，这往往是该公司的核心基础。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to net income, the company is expected to report an EPS CAGR of over 34%, more than double their sales CAGR of 15.1%, indicative of higher prices expected to come in the next few quarters. Here's the annual breakdown of those figures for growth rate comparison:</p><p><blockquote>就净利润而言，该公司预计每股收益复合年增长率将超过34%，是销售额复合年增长率15.1%的两倍多，这表明未来几个季度价格预计将上涨。以下是这些数字的年度细目，用于增长率比较：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac02918e9c660b0330b81a023c208d84\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"386\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> <b>The #1 Risk - Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>第一大风险——竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> The number one risk for the company's long term prospects is competition and it materialized in 2 ways:</p><p><blockquote>公司长期前景的头号风险是竞争，它通过两种方式实现：</blockquote></p><p> The first is organic competitive pressures. Services like Amazon Prime (AMZN), Disney+ (DIS), Apple TV (AAPL), and several other major and minor players have launched their own on-demand streaming services in recent years and have seen growth rates similar to Netflix when they themselves were starting out. In it of itself, this isn't the worse thing in the world since the low prices make for the reality that most people who subscribe to one of these services also subscribes to many others but there is still content preferences and the fact that one of these other services, especially Disney+ with children shows and programs, may come out with a new hit series or movie can take away the glory from the others and Netflix can surely suffer from this.</p><p><blockquote>首先是有机竞争压力。Amazon Prime(AMZN)、Disney+(DIS)、苹果电视(AAPL)等服务以及其他几家主要和次要的服务近年来都推出了自己的点播流媒体服务，并且其增长率与Netflix类似。他们自己正在开始。就其本身而言，这并不是世界上最糟糕的事情，因为低价使得大多数订阅这些服务之一的人也订阅了许多其他服务，但仍然存在内容偏好，事实上这些其他服务之一，特别是迪士尼+的儿童节目和节目，可能会推出新的热门系列或电影，这可能会夺走其他人的荣耀，网飞肯定会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> The second part of this is that when a lot of competition emerges, it's much harder to hike prices. Netflix is a streaming company and they don't have any other parts of their business which they can use to drive subscriber growth. Almost all of the Netflix's direct competitors like Amazon, Apple, and Disney have massive cash cows in other business segments which they can use to temporarily keep subscription prices down dramatically in order to attract new subscribers. This in turn will force Netflix to keep their price hikes to a minimum and result in underperformance relative to current expectations.</p><p><blockquote>第二部分是，当出现大量竞争时，提高价格就困难得多。Netflix是一家流媒体公司，他们没有任何其他业务部门可以用来推动用户增长。几乎所有Netflix的直接竞争对手，如亚马逊、苹果和迪斯尼，在其他业务领域都拥有大量摇钱树，他们可以利用这些摇钱树暂时大幅降低订阅价格，以吸引新订阅者。这反过来将迫使Netflix将价格涨幅保持在最低限度，并导致相对于当前预期的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So Bullish short term, cautious long term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期看涨，长期谨慎</b></blockquote></p><p> Netflix is by no means overvalued. They currently trade at around 30x to 40x 2022 and 2023 earnings projections, respectively, which are set to grow at a 20% to 30% rate, meaning you can make the argument that they are even slightly undervalued at current levels. This makes me maintain my highly bullish rating on their near-term prospects and that they are extremely likely to outperform the broader market whether we keep heading up or even if we see a small cyclical market correction.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix的估值绝不是高估的。它们目前的交易价格分别约为2022年和2023年盈利预测的30至40倍，预计将以20%至30%的速度增长，这意味着你可以认为它们在当前水平上甚至略有被低估。这使我维持对其近期前景的高度看涨评级，并且无论我们继续上涨，或者即使我们看到小幅的周期性市场调整，它们都极有可能跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> But their long-term prospects get a little shaky given the level of risk factors they are facing down the line. We simply will need to wait and see how their price increases fair relative to the other competitors and how their subscriber growth goes. For the meantime, these factors have me neutral on the company's long-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>但考虑到他们未来面临的风险因素水平，他们的长期前景变得有点不稳定。我们只需要等待，看看他们的价格相对于其他竞争对手如何公平上涨，以及他们的用户增长如何。与此同时，这些因素使我对公司的长期前景持中立态度。</blockquote></p><p> I am continuing to hold a position in the company but have trimmed down shares in recent days and will continue to do so in the coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>我继续持有该公司的头寸，但最近几天减持了股票，并将在未来几周继续这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix: Price Hikes Can't Go On Forever<blockquote>Netflix：涨价不可能永远持续下去</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix: Price Hikes Can't Go On Forever<blockquote>Netflix：涨价不可能永远持续下去</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 17:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Netflix has been an exceptional growth story.</li> <li>But as subscriber growth rates peak and competitive pressures mount, the company's long-term prospects become somewhat shaky, even as near-term prospects remain highly bullish.</li> <li>I move from a bullish to a neutral long-term prospects position until we get more information on their competitors' performances.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da1b7013f250a635449530604885fd3b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>hocus-focus/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Netflix是一个非凡的增长故事。</li><li>但随着用户增长率达到峰值和竞争压力增加，该公司的长期前景变得有些不稳定，尽管近期前景仍然非常乐观。</li><li>我从看涨转向中性的长期前景头寸，直到我们获得有关竞争对手表现的更多信息。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>hocus-focus/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Netflix (NFLX) has seen exponential growth over the past several years as subscriber growth in both the United States and globally surged to record highs. The COVID-19 pandemic further aided this growth as more individuals were stuck inside and explored the vast video library the company holds while in quarantine, lockdown, or general isolation.</p><p><blockquote>随着美国和全球的用户增长飙升至历史新高，Netflix(NFLX)在过去几年中呈指数级增长。新冠肺炎疫情进一步促进了这一增长，因为越来越多的人被困在室内，并在隔离、封锁或一般隔离期间探索公司拥有的庞大视频库。</blockquote></p><p> However, now that global and US markets have begun becoming saturated with the limit of population growth driving subscriber growth as well as the vast number of competitors the company is facing, they are becoming more and more reliant on price increases to drive higher margins and net income, which they in turn can spend on new content which they hope can become enough of a sensation to drive subscriber growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，现在全球和美国市场已经开始饱和，人口增长对用户增长的限制以及该公司面临的大量竞争对手，他们越来越依赖价格上涨来推动更高的利润率和净收入，他们反过来可以将这些收入花在新内容上，他们希望这些内容能够引起足够的轰动来推动用户增长。</blockquote></p><p> This business model is nearly certain to produce solid and growing results for the company in the near future as streaming services remain extremely cheap at around $10 to $20 each month as we continue and see the transition away from the far more expensive cable and TV options. But the longer-term question is at what point does the company exhaust this price hiking measure and how does that fit in with the amount of investment it must make on content to stay a relevant player in this industry.</p><p><blockquote>这种商业模式几乎肯定会在不久的将来为公司带来稳健且不断增长的业绩，因为随着我们继续看到从昂贵得多的有线电视和电视选项的转变，流媒体服务仍然非常便宜，每月约10至20美元。但更长期的问题是，该公司在什么时候用尽这种提价措施，以及这如何适应它必须在内容上进行的投资额，以保持在该行业的相关参与者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Outperforming Broader Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>跑赢大盘</b></blockquote></p><p> Netflix has easily outperformed the broader market since it changed its business model from the early days of DVD rentals and has returned over 1,650% over the past 10 years, while the S&P500 Index returned over 280%.</p><p><blockquote>自从Netflix改变了早期的DVD租赁业务模式以来，它的表现轻松跑赢了大盘，过去10年的回报率超过了1650%，而标准普尔500指数的回报率超过了280%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2523862734be22d9837a9f1678c3e8a0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This growth and outperformance were primarily driven by the surge in paid subscribers the company has seen over the better part of the past decade. Early on, they spent mountains of cash on content without seeing much profits but later on subscriber growth reached a comfortable level relative to the overall population, they put an emphasis on margins and profitability and are not reporting a steady profit stream.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长和优异表现主要是由该公司在过去十年的大部分时间里付费用户的激增推动的。早期，他们在内容上花费了大量现金，但没有看到太多利润，但后来订户增长相对于总人口达到了一个舒适的水平，他们强调利润率和盈利能力，并且没有报告稳定的利润流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb152d1ab44830cfb8b9fbd70e00269\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"441\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Statista -Netflix number of paying subscribers/ Company filings)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Statista-Netflix付费用户数量/公司备案）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, worldwide subscriber growth has been slowing a little in recent years as the company inevitably hits peaks in some domestic and international markets. I expect this to continue over the coming quarters as we see both a saturation in this growth organically but also as people return to work, there is bound to be a certain percentage of pandemic-era users which have not been big viewers before the lockdowns who minimize expenses by canceling their subscription.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，近年来全球用户增长略有放缓，因为该公司不可避免地在一些国内和国际市场达到峰值。我预计这种情况将在未来几个季度继续下去，因为我们看到这种增长的有机饱和，而且随着人们重返工作岗位，肯定会有一定比例的大流行时代的用户在封锁之前不是大观众，他们通过取消订阅来最大限度地减少费用。</blockquote></p><p> It is also noteworthy that there are now many applications and services, mostly from private companies, which help you manage your subscriptions and cancel them for you if they're inactive for a long period of time. There is certainly a set amount of paying Netflix subscribers who are not active and it's unclear if these cancellations will have any material effect but it does compound some of the other aforementioned subscriber growth issues.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，现在有许多应用程序和服务，主要来自私营公司，可以帮助您管理您的订阅，并在它们长时间不活动时为您取消订阅。当然，有一定数量的付费网飞订户不活跃，目前尚不清楚这些取消是否会产生任何实质性影响，但它确实加剧了上述其他一些订户增长问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Profitability set to surge</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利能力将飙升</b></blockquote></p><p> The near-term thesis derived from what I mentioned above is rather simple - the company currently charges just $10 to $20 a month for their streaming services, which in relative terms to cable TV or internet costs is very low. This means that they can, and likely will set price increases over the coming years and I believe that when doing so they won't be losing any significant number of subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>我上面提到的近期论点相当简单——该公司目前每月仅收取10至20美元的流媒体服务费用，相对于有线电视或互联网成本来说，这是非常低的。这意味着他们可以而且很可能会在未来几年提高价格，我相信这样做时他们不会失去任何大量的订户。</blockquote></p><p> I do believe, though, that a lot of these future price hikes are baked into current net income projections for the company and it's evident by those numbers that the company will enjoy much higher margins in the nearer term of 24 to 48 months. The question is, can that continue forever? I don't think so, but let's look at those projections and see where we go from here.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我确实相信，未来的大部分价格上涨都已纳入该公司当前的净利润预测中，从这些数字可以明显看出，该公司在24至48个月的近期内将享有更高的利润率。问题是，这种情况能永远持续下去吗？我不这么认为，但让我们看看这些预测，看看我们将何去何从。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company's sales are expected to double over the next 5 years, growing from $25 billion in 2020 to just over $50 billion by 2025, presenting a CAGR of 15.1%. This does indicate that the company will still see solid subscriber growth numbers in line with population growth and some organic growth as more of the world gets access to high-speed internet and develops a stronger non-poverty classes which tend to be the core base of the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的销售额预计将在未来5年内翻一番，从2020年的250亿美元增长到2025年略高于500亿美元，复合年增长率为15.1%。这确实表明，随着世界上更多的人接入高速互联网，并发展出更强大的非贫困阶层，该公司仍将看到与人口增长和一些有机增长一致的稳定用户增长，这往往是该公司的核心基础。</blockquote></p><p> When it comes to net income, the company is expected to report an EPS CAGR of over 34%, more than double their sales CAGR of 15.1%, indicative of higher prices expected to come in the next few quarters. Here's the annual breakdown of those figures for growth rate comparison:</p><p><blockquote>就净利润而言，该公司预计每股收益复合年增长率将超过34%，是销售额复合年增长率15.1%的两倍多，这表明未来几个季度价格预计将上涨。以下是这些数字的年度细目，用于增长率比较：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac02918e9c660b0330b81a023c208d84\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"386\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> <b>The #1 Risk - Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>第一大风险——竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> The number one risk for the company's long term prospects is competition and it materialized in 2 ways:</p><p><blockquote>公司长期前景的头号风险是竞争，它通过两种方式实现：</blockquote></p><p> The first is organic competitive pressures. Services like Amazon Prime (AMZN), Disney+ (DIS), Apple TV (AAPL), and several other major and minor players have launched their own on-demand streaming services in recent years and have seen growth rates similar to Netflix when they themselves were starting out. In it of itself, this isn't the worse thing in the world since the low prices make for the reality that most people who subscribe to one of these services also subscribes to many others but there is still content preferences and the fact that one of these other services, especially Disney+ with children shows and programs, may come out with a new hit series or movie can take away the glory from the others and Netflix can surely suffer from this.</p><p><blockquote>首先是有机竞争压力。Amazon Prime(AMZN)、Disney+(DIS)、苹果电视(AAPL)等服务以及其他几家主要和次要的服务近年来都推出了自己的点播流媒体服务，并且其增长率与Netflix类似。他们自己正在开始。就其本身而言，这并不是世界上最糟糕的事情，因为低价使得大多数订阅这些服务之一的人也订阅了许多其他服务，但仍然存在内容偏好，事实上这些其他服务之一，特别是迪士尼+的儿童节目和节目，可能会推出新的热门系列或电影，这可能会夺走其他人的荣耀，网飞肯定会受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> The second part of this is that when a lot of competition emerges, it's much harder to hike prices. Netflix is a streaming company and they don't have any other parts of their business which they can use to drive subscriber growth. Almost all of the Netflix's direct competitors like Amazon, Apple, and Disney have massive cash cows in other business segments which they can use to temporarily keep subscription prices down dramatically in order to attract new subscribers. This in turn will force Netflix to keep their price hikes to a minimum and result in underperformance relative to current expectations.</p><p><blockquote>第二部分是，当出现大量竞争时，提高价格就困难得多。Netflix是一家流媒体公司，他们没有任何其他业务部门可以用来推动用户增长。几乎所有Netflix的直接竞争对手，如亚马逊、苹果和迪斯尼，在其他业务领域都拥有大量摇钱树，他们可以利用这些摇钱树暂时大幅降低订阅价格，以吸引新订阅者。这反过来将迫使Netflix将价格涨幅保持在最低限度，并导致相对于当前预期的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So Bullish short term, cautious long term</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期看涨，长期谨慎</b></blockquote></p><p> Netflix is by no means overvalued. They currently trade at around 30x to 40x 2022 and 2023 earnings projections, respectively, which are set to grow at a 20% to 30% rate, meaning you can make the argument that they are even slightly undervalued at current levels. This makes me maintain my highly bullish rating on their near-term prospects and that they are extremely likely to outperform the broader market whether we keep heading up or even if we see a small cyclical market correction.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix的估值绝不是高估的。它们目前的交易价格分别约为2022年和2023年盈利预测的30至40倍，预计将以20%至30%的速度增长，这意味着你可以认为它们在当前水平上甚至略有被低估。这使我维持对其近期前景的高度看涨评级，并且无论我们继续上涨，或者即使我们看到小幅的周期性市场调整，它们都极有可能跑赢大盘。</blockquote></p><p> But their long-term prospects get a little shaky given the level of risk factors they are facing down the line. We simply will need to wait and see how their price increases fair relative to the other competitors and how their subscriber growth goes. For the meantime, these factors have me neutral on the company's long-term prospects.</p><p><blockquote>但考虑到他们未来面临的风险因素水平，他们的长期前景变得有点不稳定。我们只需要等待，看看他们的价格相对于其他竞争对手如何公平上涨，以及他们的用户增长如何。与此同时，这些因素使我对公司的长期前景持中立态度。</blockquote></p><p> I am continuing to hold a position in the company but have trimmed down shares in recent days and will continue to do so in the coming weeks.</p><p><blockquote>我继续持有该公司的头寸，但最近几天减持了股票，并将在未来几周继续这样做。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452107-netflix-price-hikes-cant-go-on-forever\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452107-netflix-price-hikes-cant-go-on-forever","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174638225","content_text":"Summary\n\nNetflix has been an exceptional growth story.\nBut as subscriber growth rates peak and competitive pressures mount, the company's long-term prospects become somewhat shaky, even as near-term prospects remain highly bullish.\nI move from a bullish to a neutral long-term prospects position until we get more information on their competitors' performances.\n\nhocus-focus/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nNetflix (NFLX) has seen exponential growth over the past several years as subscriber growth in both the United States and globally surged to record highs. The COVID-19 pandemic further aided this growth as more individuals were stuck inside and explored the vast video library the company holds while in quarantine, lockdown, or general isolation.\nHowever, now that global and US markets have begun becoming saturated with the limit of population growth driving subscriber growth as well as the vast number of competitors the company is facing, they are becoming more and more reliant on price increases to drive higher margins and net income, which they in turn can spend on new content which they hope can become enough of a sensation to drive subscriber growth.\nThis business model is nearly certain to produce solid and growing results for the company in the near future as streaming services remain extremely cheap at around $10 to $20 each month as we continue and see the transition away from the far more expensive cable and TV options. But the longer-term question is at what point does the company exhaust this price hiking measure and how does that fit in with the amount of investment it must make on content to stay a relevant player in this industry.\nOutperforming Broader Market\nNetflix has easily outperformed the broader market since it changed its business model from the early days of DVD rentals and has returned over 1,650% over the past 10 years, while the S&P500 Index returned over 280%.\nData by YCharts\nThis growth and outperformance were primarily driven by the surge in paid subscribers the company has seen over the better part of the past decade. Early on, they spent mountains of cash on content without seeing much profits but later on subscriber growth reached a comfortable level relative to the overall population, they put an emphasis on margins and profitability and are not reporting a steady profit stream.\n(Source: Statista -Netflix number of paying subscribers/ Company filings)\nAs we can see, worldwide subscriber growth has been slowing a little in recent years as the company inevitably hits peaks in some domestic and international markets. I expect this to continue over the coming quarters as we see both a saturation in this growth organically but also as people return to work, there is bound to be a certain percentage of pandemic-era users which have not been big viewers before the lockdowns who minimize expenses by canceling their subscription.\nIt is also noteworthy that there are now many applications and services, mostly from private companies, which help you manage your subscriptions and cancel them for you if they're inactive for a long period of time. There is certainly a set amount of paying Netflix subscribers who are not active and it's unclear if these cancellations will have any material effect but it does compound some of the other aforementioned subscriber growth issues.\nProfitability set to surge\nThe near-term thesis derived from what I mentioned above is rather simple - the company currently charges just $10 to $20 a month for their streaming services, which in relative terms to cable TV or internet costs is very low. This means that they can, and likely will set price increases over the coming years and I believe that when doing so they won't be losing any significant number of subscribers.\nI do believe, though, that a lot of these future price hikes are baked into current net income projections for the company and it's evident by those numbers that the company will enjoy much higher margins in the nearer term of 24 to 48 months. The question is, can that continue forever? I don't think so, but let's look at those projections and see where we go from here.\nThe company's sales are expected to double over the next 5 years, growing from $25 billion in 2020 to just over $50 billion by 2025, presenting a CAGR of 15.1%. This does indicate that the company will still see solid subscriber growth numbers in line with population growth and some organic growth as more of the world gets access to high-speed internet and develops a stronger non-poverty classes which tend to be the core base of the company.\nWhen it comes to net income, the company is expected to report an EPS CAGR of over 34%, more than double their sales CAGR of 15.1%, indicative of higher prices expected to come in the next few quarters. Here's the annual breakdown of those figures for growth rate comparison:\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe #1 Risk - Competition\nThe number one risk for the company's long term prospects is competition and it materialized in 2 ways:\nThe first is organic competitive pressures. Services like Amazon Prime (AMZN), Disney+ (DIS), Apple TV (AAPL), and several other major and minor players have launched their own on-demand streaming services in recent years and have seen growth rates similar to Netflix when they themselves were starting out. In it of itself, this isn't the worse thing in the world since the low prices make for the reality that most people who subscribe to one of these services also subscribes to many others but there is still content preferences and the fact that one of these other services, especially Disney+ with children shows and programs, may come out with a new hit series or movie can take away the glory from the others and Netflix can surely suffer from this.\nThe second part of this is that when a lot of competition emerges, it's much harder to hike prices. Netflix is a streaming company and they don't have any other parts of their business which they can use to drive subscriber growth. Almost all of the Netflix's direct competitors like Amazon, Apple, and Disney have massive cash cows in other business segments which they can use to temporarily keep subscription prices down dramatically in order to attract new subscribers. This in turn will force Netflix to keep their price hikes to a minimum and result in underperformance relative to current expectations.\nSo Bullish short term, cautious long term\nNetflix is by no means overvalued. They currently trade at around 30x to 40x 2022 and 2023 earnings projections, respectively, which are set to grow at a 20% to 30% rate, meaning you can make the argument that they are even slightly undervalued at current levels. This makes me maintain my highly bullish rating on their near-term prospects and that they are extremely likely to outperform the broader market whether we keep heading up or even if we see a small cyclical market correction.\nBut their long-term prospects get a little shaky given the level of risk factors they are facing down the line. We simply will need to wait and see how their price increases fair relative to the other competitors and how their subscriber growth goes. For the meantime, these factors have me neutral on the company's long-term prospects.\nI am continuing to hold a position in the company but have trimmed down shares in recent days and will continue to do so in the coming weeks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1279,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/819699431"}
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