Eddie318
2021-09-06
Yes, I have faith in this company.
Lucid: A High-Risk, High-Reward EV Play<blockquote>Lucid：高风险、高回报的电动汽车游戏</blockquote>
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While Lucid is not established in the EV market yet, commercial success of its luxury EV sedan could drive a major revaluation of the company’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车初创公司Lucid Group(LCID)将于今年下半年开始交付其首款电动汽车产品Lucid Air，其股价可能会重估。虽然Lucid尚未在电动汽车市场站稳脚跟，但其豪华电动轿车的商业成功可能会推动该公司股价大幅重估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid: A high-risk, high-reward situation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid：高风险、高回报的局面</b></blockquote></p><p> There are clear risks when investing in a company that has no established product and that lacks commercial market success. But while there are big risks with Lucid, an investment in the firm also creates the possibility for big upside for early investors that take a chance on an innovator with a new, exciting product within a growing niche.</p><p><blockquote>投资一家没有成熟产品且缺乏商业市场成功的公司存在明显的风险。尽管Lucid存在很大风险，但对该公司的投资也为早期投资者创造了巨大上涨的可能性，他们在不断增长的利基市场中抓住了拥有令人兴奋的新产品的创新者的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid could make a splash with its first ever EV product which is expected to roll off factory belts in the coming months. While Lucid also invests in energy storage solutions, the focus of this article is on Lucid’s first production car, the Lucid Air… which could help the EV maker establish itself as a force to be reckoned with in the luxury EV segment. Lucid Air is an all-electric sedan with 480 hp, with a top speed of 168 mph and a projected travel range, for its base version, of approximately 400 miles.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid可能会凭借其首款电动汽车产品引起轰动，该产品预计将在未来几个月内下线。虽然Lucid也投资于储能解决方案，但本文的重点是Lucid的首款量产车Lucid Air……它可以帮助这家电动汽车制造商成为豪华电动汽车领域不可忽视的力量。Lucid Air是一款全电动轿车，功率为480马力，最高时速为168英里/小时，基本版本的预计续航里程约为400英里。</blockquote></p><p> The EV maker has so far received more than 10,000 qualified reservations for its first-ever EV model, which is not bad for a company’s first production vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，这家电动汽车制造商已经收到了超过10,000份合格的预订，这对于一家公司的第一辆量产车来说已经不错了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dd5fe765783d78da6c2935d84a7804\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid Group</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid集团</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides the base model, Lucid also offers variations of the Lucid Air with different specifications, most notably the “Dream” edition which offers buyers almost 100 miles higher range and more than double the horsepower than the base version. In September, Lucid will give the media and analysts access to its Arizona manufacturing plant, named AMP-1, to witness the production process first-hand and go on test drives. Lucid’s AMP-1 manufacturing facility creates capacity to produce 53,000 vehicles annually. With interest in electric vehicles ramping up and more start-ups entering the space, Lucid could benefit from positive press/analyst coverage in September, which could result in an increase in paid reservations. The delivery timeline for Lucid’s different Air models and the specifications can be seen below…</p><p><blockquote>除了基本型号外，Lucid还提供不同规格的Lucid Air变体，最著名的是“梦想”版，它为买家提供了比基本版本高近100英里的续航里程和两倍多的马力。9月，Lucid将让媒体和分析师进入其亚利桑那州名为AMP-1的制造工厂，亲眼目睹生产过程并进行试驾。Lucid的AMP-1制造工厂每年可生产53,000辆汽车。随着人们对电动汽车兴趣的增加以及更多初创企业进入该领域，Lucid可能会受益于9月份媒体/分析师的积极报道，这可能会导致付费预订量的增加。Lucid不同Air型号的交付时间表和规格如下……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0816c55c9e18ce83c49e8fb26dd7e93\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Electrek</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Electrek</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One strong selling point that differentiates Lucid from other electric vehicles is the combination of luxury and performance aspects in the under-served premium sedan market. Compared against other models in the premium sedan segment, for example models from Mercedes, Lucid offers a better cost-value relationship: The Lucid Air is cheaper than comparable luxury sedans from Mercedes, including AMG versions, while offering competitive performance. The combination of performance and value could help Lucid establish itself as a luxury green-energy alternative to other premium sedans.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid区别于其他电动汽车的一个强大卖点是在服务不足的高端轿车市场中将豪华与性能相结合。与高端轿车领域的其他车型（例如梅赛德斯的车型）相比，Lucid提供了更好的成本价值关系：Lucid Air比梅赛德斯的同类豪华轿车（包括AMG版本）便宜，同时提供具有竞争力的性能。性能和价值的结合可以帮助Lucid成为其他高端轿车的豪华绿色能源替代品。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da43150d142883c03ccf75840884c032\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lucid does not yet have a product which generates risk. Like every other EV company in the development stage, Lucid has no revenues, only significant losses, but this is going to change as soon as first deliveries are made and the EV maker works to satisfy reservations. FY 2022 is going to be a very important year for Lucid as the firm will see a big ramp in production capacity and start to generate revenues. FY 2022 will see continued losses, but, if the Lucid Air catches on in the premium EV sedan segment, shares of Lucid are going to trade based on increasingly bright prospects.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid还没有产生风险的产品。与其他处于开发阶段的电动汽车公司一样，Lucid没有收入，只有重大亏损，但一旦首次交付完成并且电动汽车制造商努力满足预订，这种情况就会改变。2022财年对于Lucid来说将是非常重要的一年，因为该公司的产能将大幅提升并开始产生收入。2022财年将持续亏损，但是，如果Lucid Air在高端电动轿车领域流行起来，Lucid的股票将基于日益光明的前景进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb6cd109157e62c9960f6112d122447\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"629\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to accumulated losses related to the development of the Lucid Air, among other things, Lucid has a net negative equity of $1.7B. The company also has about $1.7B in liabilities and will likely have to raise equity to finance the production ramp and the market introduction of the Lucid Air.</p><p><blockquote>由于与Lucid Air开发相关的累计损失等，Lucid的净负资产为$1.7 B。该公司还拥有约17亿美元的负债，并且可能必须筹集股本来为Lucid Air的产量增长和市场推出提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f32198cdab76a0366db26719745ba0\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With no operations and no revenues, it is difficult to value Lucid. Projections and the timing of deliveries are also wildcards and don’t make it much easier to derive a fair value for Lucid. But assuming that 10,000 reservations turn into 10,000 real customers that pay, at a minimum, the full price for the base model, the Lucid Air, the EV company is about to generate $699M in revenues in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>由于没有运营和收入，很难对Lucid进行估值。预测和交付时间也是通配符，并不能让得出Lucid的公允价值变得更加容易。但假设10,000个预订变成10,000个真正的客户，他们至少支付基本车型Lucid Air的全价，这家电动汽车公司将在短期内产生6.99亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Depending on what buzz Lucid generates at the marketing event in September, Lucid could see a strong increase in reservations as most people are likely still unaware of the premium electric sedan model Lucid offers. Assuming that Lucid, five years out, sells an amount of EVs that approximates the firm’s manufacturing capacity, about 50,000 vehicles annually, the EV maker could generate yearly revenues of $3.5B. This calculates to a market-capitalization-to-sales-ratio of 9.0x... which is not an outrageously high sales multiplier factor to pay for EV-related sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据Lucid在9月份营销活动中引起的轰动，Lucid的预订量可能会大幅增加，因为大多数人可能仍然不知道Lucid提供的高级电动轿车车型。假设Lucid在五年后销售的电动汽车数量接近该公司的生产能力，即每年约50,000辆，则该电动汽车制造商每年可产生$3.5 B的收入。由此计算出市值与销售额的比率为9.0倍……这并不是一个高得离谱的销售乘数因素来支付电动汽车相关的销售增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82404c821b32245c05f4e609e3e84fe5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Lucid</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many. The Lucid Air might fail, get bad reviews, be subject to a safety recall or a thousand other things could go wrong as Lucid is not a company with extensive manufacturing experience. The financials also look like you would expect them to look, understanding that we are dealing with a company in the development stage. Future revenues are uncertain and largely depend on the market reception of the Lucid Air. Lucid is a stock you might want to own for the upside, but you don’t want to put all of your money into this stock. Risks are still numerous, but the upside, if things go right, is great.</p><p><blockquote>有很多。由于Lucid不是一家拥有丰富制造经验的公司，Lucid Air可能会出现故障、受到差评、受到安全召回或一千个其他问题。财务数据看起来也像你期望的那样，要知道我们正在与一家处于发展阶段的公司打交道。未来的收入不确定，很大程度上取决于Lucid Air的市场接受度。Lucid是一只您可能想持有以获取上涨空间的股票，但您不想将所有资金投入这只股票。风险仍然很多，但如果事情进展顺利，好处是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I really like Lucid’s approach to corner the luxury sedan segment… which appears to be under-served. The opening of the AMP-1 facility to the public in September could create a lot more demand for the Lucid Air luxury sedan and with actual deliveries not far away, shares of Lucid can revalue higher.</p><p><blockquote>我真的很喜欢Lucid垄断豪华轿车细分市场的方法……该细分市场似乎服务不足。AMP-1工厂于9月份向公众开放可能会创造对Lucid Air豪华轿车的更多需求，随着实际交付的临近，Lucid的股价可能会升值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid: A High-Risk, High-Reward EV Play<blockquote>Lucid：高风险、高回报的电动汽车游戏</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid: A High-Risk, High-Reward EV Play<blockquote>Lucid：高风险、高回报的电动汽车游戏</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 13:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Lucid Group could make a splash in the luxury EV sedan market.</li> <li>If Lucid Air, the EV maker's first product, has a good reception in the market, sales could ramp up quickly.</li> <li>The September opening of the Arizona manufacturing facility to the press could create some PR buzz for Lucid and result in higher reservations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0265465acf2e88106f3af23b9b8d09c7\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1010\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>deepblue4you/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Lucid Group可能会在豪华电动轿车市场引起轰动。</li><li>如果这家电动汽车制造商的首款产品Lucid Air在市场上受到好评，销量可能会迅速上升。</li><li>亚利桑那州制造工厂将于9月份向媒体开放，这可能会为Lucid带来一些公关热潮，并导致更高的预订量。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>deepblue4you/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares of electric vehicle start-up Lucid Group (LCID) could revalue higher as the firm starts deliveries of its first-ever EV product, the Lucid Air, in the second half of this year. While Lucid is not established in the EV market yet, commercial success of its luxury EV sedan could drive a major revaluation of the company’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车初创公司Lucid Group(LCID)将于今年下半年开始交付其首款电动汽车产品Lucid Air，其股价可能会重估。虽然Lucid尚未在电动汽车市场站稳脚跟，但其豪华电动轿车的商业成功可能会推动该公司股价大幅重估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid: A high-risk, high-reward situation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid：高风险、高回报的局面</b></blockquote></p><p> There are clear risks when investing in a company that has no established product and that lacks commercial market success. But while there are big risks with Lucid, an investment in the firm also creates the possibility for big upside for early investors that take a chance on an innovator with a new, exciting product within a growing niche.</p><p><blockquote>投资一家没有成熟产品且缺乏商业市场成功的公司存在明显的风险。尽管Lucid存在很大风险，但对该公司的投资也为早期投资者创造了巨大上涨的可能性，他们在不断增长的利基市场中抓住了拥有令人兴奋的新产品的创新者的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid could make a splash with its first ever EV product which is expected to roll off factory belts in the coming months. While Lucid also invests in energy storage solutions, the focus of this article is on Lucid’s first production car, the Lucid Air… which could help the EV maker establish itself as a force to be reckoned with in the luxury EV segment. Lucid Air is an all-electric sedan with 480 hp, with a top speed of 168 mph and a projected travel range, for its base version, of approximately 400 miles.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid可能会凭借其首款电动汽车产品引起轰动，该产品预计将在未来几个月内下线。虽然Lucid也投资于储能解决方案，但本文的重点是Lucid的首款量产车Lucid Air……它可以帮助这家电动汽车制造商成为豪华电动汽车领域不可忽视的力量。Lucid Air是一款全电动轿车，功率为480马力，最高时速为168英里/小时，基本版本的预计续航里程约为400英里。</blockquote></p><p> The EV maker has so far received more than 10,000 qualified reservations for its first-ever EV model, which is not bad for a company’s first production vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，这家电动汽车制造商已经收到了超过10,000份合格的预订，这对于一家公司的第一辆量产车来说已经不错了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dd5fe765783d78da6c2935d84a7804\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid Group</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid集团</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides the base model, Lucid also offers variations of the Lucid Air with different specifications, most notably the “Dream” edition which offers buyers almost 100 miles higher range and more than double the horsepower than the base version. In September, Lucid will give the media and analysts access to its Arizona manufacturing plant, named AMP-1, to witness the production process first-hand and go on test drives. Lucid’s AMP-1 manufacturing facility creates capacity to produce 53,000 vehicles annually. With interest in electric vehicles ramping up and more start-ups entering the space, Lucid could benefit from positive press/analyst coverage in September, which could result in an increase in paid reservations. The delivery timeline for Lucid’s different Air models and the specifications can be seen below…</p><p><blockquote>除了基本型号外，Lucid还提供不同规格的Lucid Air变体，最著名的是“梦想”版，它为买家提供了比基本版本高近100英里的续航里程和两倍多的马力。9月，Lucid将让媒体和分析师进入其亚利桑那州名为AMP-1的制造工厂，亲眼目睹生产过程并进行试驾。Lucid的AMP-1制造工厂每年可生产53,000辆汽车。随着人们对电动汽车兴趣的增加以及更多初创企业进入该领域，Lucid可能会受益于9月份媒体/分析师的积极报道，这可能会导致付费预订量的增加。Lucid不同Air型号的交付时间表和规格如下……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0816c55c9e18ce83c49e8fb26dd7e93\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Electrek</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Electrek</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One strong selling point that differentiates Lucid from other electric vehicles is the combination of luxury and performance aspects in the under-served premium sedan market. Compared against other models in the premium sedan segment, for example models from Mercedes, Lucid offers a better cost-value relationship: The Lucid Air is cheaper than comparable luxury sedans from Mercedes, including AMG versions, while offering competitive performance. The combination of performance and value could help Lucid establish itself as a luxury green-energy alternative to other premium sedans.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid区别于其他电动汽车的一个强大卖点是在服务不足的高端轿车市场中将豪华与性能相结合。与高端轿车领域的其他车型（例如梅赛德斯的车型）相比，Lucid提供了更好的成本价值关系：Lucid Air比梅赛德斯的同类豪华轿车（包括AMG版本）便宜，同时提供具有竞争力的性能。性能和价值的结合可以帮助Lucid成为其他高端轿车的豪华绿色能源替代品。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da43150d142883c03ccf75840884c032\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lucid does not yet have a product which generates risk. Like every other EV company in the development stage, Lucid has no revenues, only significant losses, but this is going to change as soon as first deliveries are made and the EV maker works to satisfy reservations. FY 2022 is going to be a very important year for Lucid as the firm will see a big ramp in production capacity and start to generate revenues. FY 2022 will see continued losses, but, if the Lucid Air catches on in the premium EV sedan segment, shares of Lucid are going to trade based on increasingly bright prospects.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid还没有产生风险的产品。与其他处于开发阶段的电动汽车公司一样，Lucid没有收入，只有重大亏损，但一旦首次交付完成并且电动汽车制造商努力满足预订，这种情况就会改变。2022财年对于Lucid来说将是非常重要的一年，因为该公司的产能将大幅提升并开始产生收入。2022财年将持续亏损，但是，如果Lucid Air在高端电动轿车领域流行起来，Lucid的股票将基于日益光明的前景进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb6cd109157e62c9960f6112d122447\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"629\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to accumulated losses related to the development of the Lucid Air, among other things, Lucid has a net negative equity of $1.7B. The company also has about $1.7B in liabilities and will likely have to raise equity to finance the production ramp and the market introduction of the Lucid Air.</p><p><blockquote>由于与Lucid Air开发相关的累计损失等，Lucid的净负资产为$1.7 B。该公司还拥有约17亿美元的负债，并且可能必须筹集股本来为Lucid Air的产量增长和市场推出提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f32198cdab76a0366db26719745ba0\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With no operations and no revenues, it is difficult to value Lucid. Projections and the timing of deliveries are also wildcards and don’t make it much easier to derive a fair value for Lucid. But assuming that 10,000 reservations turn into 10,000 real customers that pay, at a minimum, the full price for the base model, the Lucid Air, the EV company is about to generate $699M in revenues in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>由于没有运营和收入，很难对Lucid进行估值。预测和交付时间也是通配符，并不能让得出Lucid的公允价值变得更加容易。但假设10,000个预订变成10,000个真正的客户，他们至少支付基本车型Lucid Air的全价，这家电动汽车公司将在短期内产生6.99亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Depending on what buzz Lucid generates at the marketing event in September, Lucid could see a strong increase in reservations as most people are likely still unaware of the premium electric sedan model Lucid offers. Assuming that Lucid, five years out, sells an amount of EVs that approximates the firm’s manufacturing capacity, about 50,000 vehicles annually, the EV maker could generate yearly revenues of $3.5B. This calculates to a market-capitalization-to-sales-ratio of 9.0x... which is not an outrageously high sales multiplier factor to pay for EV-related sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据Lucid在9月份营销活动中引起的轰动，Lucid的预订量可能会大幅增加，因为大多数人可能仍然不知道Lucid提供的高级电动轿车车型。假设Lucid在五年后销售的电动汽车数量接近该公司的生产能力，即每年约50,000辆，则该电动汽车制造商每年可产生$3.5 B的收入。由此计算出市值与销售额的比率为9.0倍……这并不是一个高得离谱的销售乘数因素来支付电动汽车相关的销售增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82404c821b32245c05f4e609e3e84fe5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Lucid</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many. The Lucid Air might fail, get bad reviews, be subject to a safety recall or a thousand other things could go wrong as Lucid is not a company with extensive manufacturing experience. The financials also look like you would expect them to look, understanding that we are dealing with a company in the development stage. Future revenues are uncertain and largely depend on the market reception of the Lucid Air. Lucid is a stock you might want to own for the upside, but you don’t want to put all of your money into this stock. Risks are still numerous, but the upside, if things go right, is great.</p><p><blockquote>有很多。由于Lucid不是一家拥有丰富制造经验的公司，Lucid Air可能会出现故障、受到差评、受到安全召回或一千个其他问题。财务数据看起来也像你期望的那样，要知道我们正在与一家处于发展阶段的公司打交道。未来的收入不确定，很大程度上取决于Lucid Air的市场接受度。Lucid是一只您可能想持有以获取上涨空间的股票，但您不想将所有资金投入这只股票。风险仍然很多，但如果事情进展顺利，好处是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I really like Lucid’s approach to corner the luxury sedan segment… which appears to be under-served. The opening of the AMP-1 facility to the public in September could create a lot more demand for the Lucid Air luxury sedan and with actual deliveries not far away, shares of Lucid can revalue higher.</p><p><blockquote>我真的很喜欢Lucid垄断豪华轿车细分市场的方法……该细分市场似乎服务不足。AMP-1工厂于9月份向公众开放可能会创造对Lucid Air豪华轿车的更多需求，随着实际交付的临近，Lucid的股价可能会升值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453635-lucid-a-high-risk-high-reward-ev-play\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453635-lucid-a-high-risk-high-reward-ev-play","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193270400","content_text":"Summary\n\nLucid Group could make a splash in the luxury EV sedan market.\nIf Lucid Air, the EV maker's first product, has a good reception in the market, sales could ramp up quickly.\nThe September opening of the Arizona manufacturing facility to the press could create some PR buzz for Lucid and result in higher reservations.\n\ndeepblue4you/iStock via Getty Images\nShares of electric vehicle start-up Lucid Group (LCID) could revalue higher as the firm starts deliveries of its first-ever EV product, the Lucid Air, in the second half of this year. While Lucid is not established in the EV market yet, commercial success of its luxury EV sedan could drive a major revaluation of the company’s shares.\nLucid: A high-risk, high-reward situation\nThere are clear risks when investing in a company that has no established product and that lacks commercial market success. But while there are big risks with Lucid, an investment in the firm also creates the possibility for big upside for early investors that take a chance on an innovator with a new, exciting product within a growing niche.\nLucid could make a splash with its first ever EV product which is expected to roll off factory belts in the coming months. While Lucid also invests in energy storage solutions, the focus of this article is on Lucid’s first production car, the Lucid Air… which could help the EV maker establish itself as a force to be reckoned with in the luxury EV segment. Lucid Air is an all-electric sedan with 480 hp, with a top speed of 168 mph and a projected travel range, for its base version, of approximately 400 miles.\nThe EV maker has so far received more than 10,000 qualified reservations for its first-ever EV model, which is not bad for a company’s first production vehicle.\nSource: Lucid Group\nBesides the base model, Lucid also offers variations of the Lucid Air with different specifications, most notably the “Dream” edition which offers buyers almost 100 miles higher range and more than double the horsepower than the base version. In September, Lucid will give the media and analysts access to its Arizona manufacturing plant, named AMP-1, to witness the production process first-hand and go on test drives. Lucid’s AMP-1 manufacturing facility creates capacity to produce 53,000 vehicles annually. With interest in electric vehicles ramping up and more start-ups entering the space, Lucid could benefit from positive press/analyst coverage in September, which could result in an increase in paid reservations. The delivery timeline for Lucid’s different Air models and the specifications can be seen below…\nSource: Electrek\nOne strong selling point that differentiates Lucid from other electric vehicles is the combination of luxury and performance aspects in the under-served premium sedan market. Compared against other models in the premium sedan segment, for example models from Mercedes, Lucid offers a better cost-value relationship: The Lucid Air is cheaper than comparable luxury sedans from Mercedes, including AMG versions, while offering competitive performance. The combination of performance and value could help Lucid establish itself as a luxury green-energy alternative to other premium sedans.\nSource: Lucid\nLucid does not yet have a product which generates risk. Like every other EV company in the development stage, Lucid has no revenues, only significant losses, but this is going to change as soon as first deliveries are made and the EV maker works to satisfy reservations. FY 2022 is going to be a very important year for Lucid as the firm will see a big ramp in production capacity and start to generate revenues. FY 2022 will see continued losses, but, if the Lucid Air catches on in the premium EV sedan segment, shares of Lucid are going to trade based on increasingly bright prospects.\nSource: Lucid\nDue to accumulated losses related to the development of the Lucid Air, among other things, Lucid has a net negative equity of $1.7B. The company also has about $1.7B in liabilities and will likely have to raise equity to finance the production ramp and the market introduction of the Lucid Air.\nSource: Lucid\nWith no operations and no revenues, it is difficult to value Lucid. Projections and the timing of deliveries are also wildcards and don’t make it much easier to derive a fair value for Lucid. But assuming that 10,000 reservations turn into 10,000 real customers that pay, at a minimum, the full price for the base model, the Lucid Air, the EV company is about to generate $699M in revenues in the short term.\nDepending on what buzz Lucid generates at the marketing event in September, Lucid could see a strong increase in reservations as most people are likely still unaware of the premium electric sedan model Lucid offers. Assuming that Lucid, five years out, sells an amount of EVs that approximates the firm’s manufacturing capacity, about 50,000 vehicles annually, the EV maker could generate yearly revenues of $3.5B. This calculates to a market-capitalization-to-sales-ratio of 9.0x... which is not an outrageously high sales multiplier factor to pay for EV-related sales growth.\nData by YCharts\nRisks with Lucid\nThere are many. The Lucid Air might fail, get bad reviews, be subject to a safety recall or a thousand other things could go wrong as Lucid is not a company with extensive manufacturing experience. The financials also look like you would expect them to look, understanding that we are dealing with a company in the development stage. Future revenues are uncertain and largely depend on the market reception of the Lucid Air. Lucid is a stock you might want to own for the upside, but you don’t want to put all of your money into this stock. Risks are still numerous, but the upside, if things go right, is great.\nFinal thoughts\nI really like Lucid’s approach to corner the luxury sedan segment… which appears to be under-served. The opening of the AMP-1 facility to the public in September could create a lot more demand for the Lucid Air luxury sedan and with actual deliveries not far away, shares of Lucid can revalue higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/817315707"}
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