Eddie318
2021-09-06
Yes, I have faith in this company.
Lucid: A High-Risk, High-Reward EV Play<blockquote>Lucid：高风险、高回报的电动汽车游戏</blockquote>
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While Lucid is not established in the EV market yet, commercial success of its luxury EV sedan could drive a major revaluation of the company’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车初创公司 Lucid Group (LCID) 于今年下半年开始交付其首款电动汽车产品 Lucid Air，该公司的股价可能会重估。虽然 Lucid 尚未在电动汽车市场站稳脚跟，但其豪华电动轿车的商业成功可能会推动该公司股票的大幅重估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid: A high-risk, high-reward situation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>清醒：高风险、高回报的情况</b></blockquote></p><p> There are clear risks when investing in a company that has no established product and that lacks commercial market success. But while there are big risks with Lucid, an investment in the firm also creates the possibility for big upside for early investors that take a chance on an innovator with a new, exciting product within a growing niche.</p><p><blockquote>投资一家没有成熟产品且缺乏商业市场成功的公司存在明显的风险。尽管 Lucid 存在很大风险，但对该公司的投资也为早期投资者创造了巨大的上涨空间，他们可以在不断增长的利基市场中抓住机会，在创新者身上推出令人兴奋的新产品。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid could make a splash with its first ever EV product which is expected to roll off factory belts in the coming months. While Lucid also invests in energy storage solutions, the focus of this article is on Lucid’s first production car, the Lucid Air… which could help the EV maker establish itself as a force to be reckoned with in the luxury EV segment. Lucid Air is an all-electric sedan with 480 hp, with a top speed of 168 mph and a projected travel range, for its base version, of approximately 400 miles.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 可能会凭借其首款电动汽车产品引起轰动，该产品预计将在未来几个月内下线。虽然 Lucid 也投资于储能解决方案，但本文的重点是 Lucid 的首款量产车 Lucid Air.它可以帮助这家电动汽车制造商成为豪华电动汽车领域不可忽视的力量。Lucid Air 是一款全电动轿车，功率为 480 马力，最高时速为 168 英里/小时，基本版本的预计续航里程约为 400 英里。</blockquote></p><p> The EV maker has so far received more than 10,000 qualified reservations for its first-ever EV model, which is not bad for a company’s first production vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，这家电动汽车制造商的首款电动汽车车型已经收到了 10,000 多份合格预订，这对于一家公司的首款量产车来说已经不错了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dd5fe765783d78da6c2935d84a7804\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid Group</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid Group</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides the base model, Lucid also offers variations of the Lucid Air with different specifications, most notably the “Dream” edition which offers buyers almost 100 miles higher range and more than double the horsepower than the base version. In September, Lucid will give the media and analysts access to its Arizona manufacturing plant, named AMP-1, to witness the production process first-hand and go on test drives. Lucid’s AMP-1 manufacturing facility creates capacity to produce 53,000 vehicles annually. With interest in electric vehicles ramping up and more start-ups entering the space, Lucid could benefit from positive press/analyst coverage in September, which could result in an increase in paid reservations. The delivery timeline for Lucid’s different Air models and the specifications can be seen below…</p><p><blockquote>除了基本款车型外，Lucid 还提供不同规格的 Lucid Air 变体，其中最著名的是 “梦想 ”版，它的续航里程比基本款增加了近 100 英里，马力增加了一倍多。9 月，Lucid 将允许媒体和分析师参观其位于亚利桑那州的 AMP-1 制造工厂，亲眼目睹生产过程并进行试驾。Lucid 的 AMP-1 制造工厂每年可生产 53,000 辆汽车。随着人们对电动汽车的兴趣日益浓厚，越来越多的初创企业进入该领域，Lucid 可能会受益于 9 月份媒体/分析师的积极报道，这可能会导致付费预订量的增加。Lucid 不同 Air 型号和规格的交付时间表如下..</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0816c55c9e18ce83c49e8fb26dd7e93\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Electrek</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Electrek</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One strong selling point that differentiates Lucid from other electric vehicles is the combination of luxury and performance aspects in the under-served premium sedan market. Compared against other models in the premium sedan segment, for example models from Mercedes, Lucid offers a better cost-value relationship: The Lucid Air is cheaper than comparable luxury sedans from Mercedes, including AMG versions, while offering competitive performance. The combination of performance and value could help Lucid establish itself as a luxury green-energy alternative to other premium sedans.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 区别于其他电动汽车的一个强大卖点是在服务不足的高级轿车市场中结合了豪华和性能方面。与高级轿车细分市场的其他车型（例如梅赛德斯车型）相比，Lucid 提供了更好的性价比：Lucid Air 比梅赛德斯同类豪华轿车（包括 AMG 版本）更便宜，同时提供有竞争力的性能。性能和价值的结合可以帮助 Lucid 将自己打造成其他高级轿车的豪华绿色能源替代品。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da43150d142883c03ccf75840884c032\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lucid does not yet have a product which generates risk. Like every other EV company in the development stage, Lucid has no revenues, only significant losses, but this is going to change as soon as first deliveries are made and the EV maker works to satisfy reservations. FY 2022 is going to be a very important year for Lucid as the firm will see a big ramp in production capacity and start to generate revenues. FY 2022 will see continued losses, but, if the Lucid Air catches on in the premium EV sedan segment, shares of Lucid are going to trade based on increasingly bright prospects.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid还没有产生风险的产品。与其他处于开发阶段的电动汽车公司一样，Lucid 没有收入，只有重大损失，但一旦第一批交付完成并且电动汽车制造商努力满足预订，这种情况就会改变。2022 财年对于 Lucid 来说将是非常重要的一年，因为该公司将看到产能大幅增长并开始产生收入。2022 财年将持续亏损，但如果 Lucid Air 在高端电动轿车领域流行起来，Lucid 的股价将基于日益光明的前景进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb6cd109157e62c9960f6112d122447\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"629\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to accumulated losses related to the development of the Lucid Air, among other things, Lucid has a net negative equity of $1.7B. The company also has about $1.7B in liabilities and will likely have to raise equity to finance the production ramp and the market introduction of the Lucid Air.</p><p><blockquote>由于与 Lucid Air 开发相关的累积损失，Lucid 的净资产为 $1.7B。该公司还拥有约 1.7B 美元的负债，可能不得不筹集股本，为 Lucid Air 的产量提升和市场推广提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f32198cdab76a0366db26719745ba0\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With no operations and no revenues, it is difficult to value Lucid. Projections and the timing of deliveries are also wildcards and don’t make it much easier to derive a fair value for Lucid. But assuming that 10,000 reservations turn into 10,000 real customers that pay, at a minimum, the full price for the base model, the Lucid Air, the EV company is about to generate $699M in revenues in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>没有运营，没有收入，很难对Lucid进行估值。预测和交付时间也是通配符，不会让 Lucid 的公允价值变得更加容易。但假设 10,000 个预订变成 10,000 个真实客户，他们至少支付基本车型 Lucid Air 的全价，这家电动汽车公司将在短期内产生 6.99 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Depending on what buzz Lucid generates at the marketing event in September, Lucid could see a strong increase in reservations as most people are likely still unaware of the premium electric sedan model Lucid offers. Assuming that Lucid, five years out, sells an amount of EVs that approximates the firm’s manufacturing capacity, about 50,000 vehicles annually, the EV maker could generate yearly revenues of $3.5B. This calculates to a market-capitalization-to-sales-ratio of 9.0x... which is not an outrageously high sales multiplier factor to pay for EV-related sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Lucid 在 9 月份营销活动中产生的反响，Lucid 的预订量可能会大幅增加，因为大多数人可能仍然不知道 Lucid 提供的高端电动轿车车型。假设五年后 Lucid 的电动汽车销量与该公司的产能相近，约为每年 5 万辆，那么这家电动汽车制造商每年可产生 35 亿美元的收入。这计算出市值与销售额的比率为 9.0 倍……这并不是支付电动汽车相关销售增长的高得离谱的销售乘数系数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82404c821b32245c05f4e609e3e84fe5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Lucid</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many. The Lucid Air might fail, get bad reviews, be subject to a safety recall or a thousand other things could go wrong as Lucid is not a company with extensive manufacturing experience. The financials also look like you would expect them to look, understanding that we are dealing with a company in the development stage. Future revenues are uncertain and largely depend on the market reception of the Lucid Air. Lucid is a stock you might want to own for the upside, but you don’t want to put all of your money into this stock. Risks are still numerous, but the upside, if things go right, is great.</p><p><blockquote>有很多。Lucid Air可能会失败，得到差评，受到安全召回或一千件其他事情可能会出错，因为Lucid不是一家拥有丰富制造经验的公司。财务数据看起来也符合您的预期，因为我们正在与一家处于发展阶段的公司打交道。未来的收入不确定，很大程度上取决于 Lucid Air 的市场接受度。Lucid 是一只你可能想持有的股票，但你不想把所有的钱都投入到这只股票上。风险仍然很多，但如果一切顺利，好处是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I really like Lucid’s approach to corner the luxury sedan segment… which appears to be under-served. The opening of the AMP-1 facility to the public in September could create a lot more demand for the Lucid Air luxury sedan and with actual deliveries not far away, shares of Lucid can revalue higher.</p><p><blockquote>我非常喜欢 Lucid 将豪华轿车市场边缘化的做法.这个市场似乎服务不足。AMP-1 工厂于 9 月份向公众开放，可能会为 Lucid Air 豪华轿车创造更多需求，而且随着实际交付不远，Lucid 的股价可能会重估更高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid: A High-Risk, High-Reward EV Play<blockquote>Lucid：高风险、高回报的电动汽车游戏</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid: A High-Risk, High-Reward EV Play<blockquote>Lucid：高风险、高回报的电动汽车游戏</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 13:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Lucid Group could make a splash in the luxury EV sedan market.</li> <li>If Lucid Air, the EV maker's first product, has a good reception in the market, sales could ramp up quickly.</li> <li>The September opening of the Arizona manufacturing facility to the press could create some PR buzz for Lucid and result in higher reservations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0265465acf2e88106f3af23b9b8d09c7\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1010\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>deepblue4you/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Lucid Group 可能会在豪华电动轿车市场引起轰动。</li><li>如果这家电动汽车制造商的首款产品 Lucid Air 在市场上受到好评，销量可能会迅速增长。</li><li>亚利桑那州制造工厂 9 月份向媒体开放可能会为 Lucid 带来一些公关宣传，并导致更高的预订量。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>deepblue4you/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares of electric vehicle start-up Lucid Group (LCID) could revalue higher as the firm starts deliveries of its first-ever EV product, the Lucid Air, in the second half of this year. While Lucid is not established in the EV market yet, commercial success of its luxury EV sedan could drive a major revaluation of the company’s shares.</p><p><blockquote>随着电动汽车初创公司 Lucid Group (LCID) 于今年下半年开始交付其首款电动汽车产品 Lucid Air，该公司的股价可能会重估。虽然 Lucid 尚未在电动汽车市场站稳脚跟，但其豪华电动轿车的商业成功可能会推动该公司股票的大幅重估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lucid: A high-risk, high-reward situation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>清醒：高风险、高回报的情况</b></blockquote></p><p> There are clear risks when investing in a company that has no established product and that lacks commercial market success. But while there are big risks with Lucid, an investment in the firm also creates the possibility for big upside for early investors that take a chance on an innovator with a new, exciting product within a growing niche.</p><p><blockquote>投资一家没有成熟产品且缺乏商业市场成功的公司存在明显的风险。尽管 Lucid 存在很大风险，但对该公司的投资也为早期投资者创造了巨大的上涨空间，他们可以在不断增长的利基市场中抓住机会，在创新者身上推出令人兴奋的新产品。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid could make a splash with its first ever EV product which is expected to roll off factory belts in the coming months. While Lucid also invests in energy storage solutions, the focus of this article is on Lucid’s first production car, the Lucid Air… which could help the EV maker establish itself as a force to be reckoned with in the luxury EV segment. Lucid Air is an all-electric sedan with 480 hp, with a top speed of 168 mph and a projected travel range, for its base version, of approximately 400 miles.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 可能会凭借其首款电动汽车产品引起轰动，该产品预计将在未来几个月内下线。虽然 Lucid 也投资于储能解决方案，但本文的重点是 Lucid 的首款量产车 Lucid Air.它可以帮助这家电动汽车制造商成为豪华电动汽车领域不可忽视的力量。Lucid Air 是一款全电动轿车，功率为 480 马力，最高时速为 168 英里/小时，基本版本的预计续航里程约为 400 英里。</blockquote></p><p> The EV maker has so far received more than 10,000 qualified reservations for its first-ever EV model, which is not bad for a company’s first production vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，这家电动汽车制造商的首款电动汽车车型已经收到了 10,000 多份合格预订，这对于一家公司的首款量产车来说已经不错了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06dd5fe765783d78da6c2935d84a7804\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid Group</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Lucid Group</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides the base model, Lucid also offers variations of the Lucid Air with different specifications, most notably the “Dream” edition which offers buyers almost 100 miles higher range and more than double the horsepower than the base version. In September, Lucid will give the media and analysts access to its Arizona manufacturing plant, named AMP-1, to witness the production process first-hand and go on test drives. Lucid’s AMP-1 manufacturing facility creates capacity to produce 53,000 vehicles annually. With interest in electric vehicles ramping up and more start-ups entering the space, Lucid could benefit from positive press/analyst coverage in September, which could result in an increase in paid reservations. The delivery timeline for Lucid’s different Air models and the specifications can be seen below…</p><p><blockquote>除了基本款车型外，Lucid 还提供不同规格的 Lucid Air 变体，其中最著名的是 “梦想 ”版，它的续航里程比基本款增加了近 100 英里，马力增加了一倍多。9 月，Lucid 将允许媒体和分析师参观其位于亚利桑那州的 AMP-1 制造工厂，亲眼目睹生产过程并进行试驾。Lucid 的 AMP-1 制造工厂每年可生产 53,000 辆汽车。随着人们对电动汽车的兴趣日益浓厚，越来越多的初创企业进入该领域，Lucid 可能会受益于 9 月份媒体/分析师的积极报道，这可能会导致付费预订量的增加。Lucid 不同 Air 型号和规格的交付时间表如下..</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0816c55c9e18ce83c49e8fb26dd7e93\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Electrek</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Electrek</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One strong selling point that differentiates Lucid from other electric vehicles is the combination of luxury and performance aspects in the under-served premium sedan market. Compared against other models in the premium sedan segment, for example models from Mercedes, Lucid offers a better cost-value relationship: The Lucid Air is cheaper than comparable luxury sedans from Mercedes, including AMG versions, while offering competitive performance. The combination of performance and value could help Lucid establish itself as a luxury green-energy alternative to other premium sedans.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid 区别于其他电动汽车的一个强大卖点是在服务不足的高级轿车市场中结合了豪华和性能方面。与高级轿车细分市场的其他车型（例如梅赛德斯车型）相比，Lucid 提供了更好的性价比：Lucid Air 比梅赛德斯同类豪华轿车（包括 AMG 版本）更便宜，同时提供有竞争力的性能。性能和价值的结合可以帮助 Lucid 将自己打造成其他高级轿车的豪华绿色能源替代品。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da43150d142883c03ccf75840884c032\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Lucid does not yet have a product which generates risk. Like every other EV company in the development stage, Lucid has no revenues, only significant losses, but this is going to change as soon as first deliveries are made and the EV maker works to satisfy reservations. FY 2022 is going to be a very important year for Lucid as the firm will see a big ramp in production capacity and start to generate revenues. FY 2022 will see continued losses, but, if the Lucid Air catches on in the premium EV sedan segment, shares of Lucid are going to trade based on increasingly bright prospects.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid还没有产生风险的产品。与其他处于开发阶段的电动汽车公司一样，Lucid 没有收入，只有重大损失，但一旦第一批交付完成并且电动汽车制造商努力满足预订，这种情况就会改变。2022 财年对于 Lucid 来说将是非常重要的一年，因为该公司将看到产能大幅增长并开始产生收入。2022 财年将持续亏损，但如果 Lucid Air 在高端电动轿车领域流行起来，Lucid 的股价将基于日益光明的前景进行交易。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb6cd109157e62c9960f6112d122447\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"629\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to accumulated losses related to the development of the Lucid Air, among other things, Lucid has a net negative equity of $1.7B. The company also has about $1.7B in liabilities and will likely have to raise equity to finance the production ramp and the market introduction of the Lucid Air.</p><p><blockquote>由于与 Lucid Air 开发相关的累积损失，Lucid 的净资产为 $1.7B。该公司还拥有约 1.7B 美元的负债，可能不得不筹集股本，为 Lucid Air 的产量提升和市场推广提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f32198cdab76a0366db26719745ba0\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Lucid</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Lucid</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With no operations and no revenues, it is difficult to value Lucid. Projections and the timing of deliveries are also wildcards and don’t make it much easier to derive a fair value for Lucid. But assuming that 10,000 reservations turn into 10,000 real customers that pay, at a minimum, the full price for the base model, the Lucid Air, the EV company is about to generate $699M in revenues in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>没有运营，没有收入，很难对Lucid进行估值。预测和交付时间也是通配符，不会让 Lucid 的公允价值变得更加容易。但假设 10,000 个预订变成 10,000 个真实客户，他们至少支付基本车型 Lucid Air 的全价，这家电动汽车公司将在短期内产生 6.99 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Depending on what buzz Lucid generates at the marketing event in September, Lucid could see a strong increase in reservations as most people are likely still unaware of the premium electric sedan model Lucid offers. Assuming that Lucid, five years out, sells an amount of EVs that approximates the firm’s manufacturing capacity, about 50,000 vehicles annually, the EV maker could generate yearly revenues of $3.5B. This calculates to a market-capitalization-to-sales-ratio of 9.0x... which is not an outrageously high sales multiplier factor to pay for EV-related sales growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Lucid 在 9 月份营销活动中产生的反响，Lucid 的预订量可能会大幅增加，因为大多数人可能仍然不知道 Lucid 提供的高端电动轿车车型。假设五年后 Lucid 的电动汽车销量与该公司的产能相近，约为每年 5 万辆，那么这家电动汽车制造商每年可产生 35 亿美元的收入。这计算出市值与销售额的比率为 9.0 倍……这并不是支付电动汽车相关销售增长的高得离谱的销售乘数系数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82404c821b32245c05f4e609e3e84fe5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with Lucid</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Lucid 的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many. The Lucid Air might fail, get bad reviews, be subject to a safety recall or a thousand other things could go wrong as Lucid is not a company with extensive manufacturing experience. The financials also look like you would expect them to look, understanding that we are dealing with a company in the development stage. Future revenues are uncertain and largely depend on the market reception of the Lucid Air. Lucid is a stock you might want to own for the upside, but you don’t want to put all of your money into this stock. Risks are still numerous, but the upside, if things go right, is great.</p><p><blockquote>有很多。Lucid Air可能会失败，得到差评，受到安全召回或一千件其他事情可能会出错，因为Lucid不是一家拥有丰富制造经验的公司。财务数据看起来也符合您的预期，因为我们正在与一家处于发展阶段的公司打交道。未来的收入不确定，很大程度上取决于 Lucid Air 的市场接受度。Lucid 是一只你可能想持有的股票，但你不想把所有的钱都投入到这只股票上。风险仍然很多，但如果一切顺利，好处是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I really like Lucid’s approach to corner the luxury sedan segment… which appears to be under-served. The opening of the AMP-1 facility to the public in September could create a lot more demand for the Lucid Air luxury sedan and with actual deliveries not far away, shares of Lucid can revalue higher.</p><p><blockquote>我非常喜欢 Lucid 将豪华轿车市场边缘化的做法.这个市场似乎服务不足。AMP-1 工厂于 9 月份向公众开放，可能会为 Lucid Air 豪华轿车创造更多需求，而且随着实际交付不远，Lucid 的股价可能会重估更高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453635-lucid-a-high-risk-high-reward-ev-play\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453635-lucid-a-high-risk-high-reward-ev-play","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193270400","content_text":"Summary\n\nLucid Group could make a splash in the luxury EV sedan market.\nIf Lucid Air, the EV maker's first product, has a good reception in the market, sales could ramp up quickly.\nThe September opening of the Arizona manufacturing facility to the press could create some PR buzz for Lucid and result in higher reservations.\n\ndeepblue4you/iStock via Getty Images\nShares of electric vehicle start-up Lucid Group (LCID) could revalue higher as the firm starts deliveries of its first-ever EV product, the Lucid Air, in the second half of this year. While Lucid is not established in the EV market yet, commercial success of its luxury EV sedan could drive a major revaluation of the company’s shares.\nLucid: A high-risk, high-reward situation\nThere are clear risks when investing in a company that has no established product and that lacks commercial market success. But while there are big risks with Lucid, an investment in the firm also creates the possibility for big upside for early investors that take a chance on an innovator with a new, exciting product within a growing niche.\nLucid could make a splash with its first ever EV product which is expected to roll off factory belts in the coming months. While Lucid also invests in energy storage solutions, the focus of this article is on Lucid’s first production car, the Lucid Air… which could help the EV maker establish itself as a force to be reckoned with in the luxury EV segment. Lucid Air is an all-electric sedan with 480 hp, with a top speed of 168 mph and a projected travel range, for its base version, of approximately 400 miles.\nThe EV maker has so far received more than 10,000 qualified reservations for its first-ever EV model, which is not bad for a company’s first production vehicle.\nSource: Lucid Group\nBesides the base model, Lucid also offers variations of the Lucid Air with different specifications, most notably the “Dream” edition which offers buyers almost 100 miles higher range and more than double the horsepower than the base version. In September, Lucid will give the media and analysts access to its Arizona manufacturing plant, named AMP-1, to witness the production process first-hand and go on test drives. Lucid’s AMP-1 manufacturing facility creates capacity to produce 53,000 vehicles annually. With interest in electric vehicles ramping up and more start-ups entering the space, Lucid could benefit from positive press/analyst coverage in September, which could result in an increase in paid reservations. The delivery timeline for Lucid’s different Air models and the specifications can be seen below…\nSource: Electrek\nOne strong selling point that differentiates Lucid from other electric vehicles is the combination of luxury and performance aspects in the under-served premium sedan market. Compared against other models in the premium sedan segment, for example models from Mercedes, Lucid offers a better cost-value relationship: The Lucid Air is cheaper than comparable luxury sedans from Mercedes, including AMG versions, while offering competitive performance. The combination of performance and value could help Lucid establish itself as a luxury green-energy alternative to other premium sedans.\nSource: Lucid\nLucid does not yet have a product which generates risk. Like every other EV company in the development stage, Lucid has no revenues, only significant losses, but this is going to change as soon as first deliveries are made and the EV maker works to satisfy reservations. FY 2022 is going to be a very important year for Lucid as the firm will see a big ramp in production capacity and start to generate revenues. FY 2022 will see continued losses, but, if the Lucid Air catches on in the premium EV sedan segment, shares of Lucid are going to trade based on increasingly bright prospects.\nSource: Lucid\nDue to accumulated losses related to the development of the Lucid Air, among other things, Lucid has a net negative equity of $1.7B. The company also has about $1.7B in liabilities and will likely have to raise equity to finance the production ramp and the market introduction of the Lucid Air.\nSource: Lucid\nWith no operations and no revenues, it is difficult to value Lucid. Projections and the timing of deliveries are also wildcards and don’t make it much easier to derive a fair value for Lucid. But assuming that 10,000 reservations turn into 10,000 real customers that pay, at a minimum, the full price for the base model, the Lucid Air, the EV company is about to generate $699M in revenues in the short term.\nDepending on what buzz Lucid generates at the marketing event in September, Lucid could see a strong increase in reservations as most people are likely still unaware of the premium electric sedan model Lucid offers. Assuming that Lucid, five years out, sells an amount of EVs that approximates the firm’s manufacturing capacity, about 50,000 vehicles annually, the EV maker could generate yearly revenues of $3.5B. This calculates to a market-capitalization-to-sales-ratio of 9.0x... which is not an outrageously high sales multiplier factor to pay for EV-related sales growth.\nData by YCharts\nRisks with Lucid\nThere are many. The Lucid Air might fail, get bad reviews, be subject to a safety recall or a thousand other things could go wrong as Lucid is not a company with extensive manufacturing experience. The financials also look like you would expect them to look, understanding that we are dealing with a company in the development stage. Future revenues are uncertain and largely depend on the market reception of the Lucid Air. Lucid is a stock you might want to own for the upside, but you don’t want to put all of your money into this stock. Risks are still numerous, but the upside, if things go right, is great.\nFinal thoughts\nI really like Lucid’s approach to corner the luxury sedan segment… which appears to be under-served. The opening of the AMP-1 facility to the public in September could create a lot more demand for the Lucid Air luxury sedan and with actual deliveries not far away, shares of Lucid can revalue higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":649,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/817315707"}
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