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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":815091217,"tweetId":"815091217","gmtCreate":1630628504639,"gmtModify":1632469723229,"author":{"id":3581888768537623,"idStr":"3581888768537623","authorId":3581888768537623,"authorIdStr":"3581888768537623","name":"AhGong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c939d5ea654b2b9a3fb6ee4f5e99b4","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":15,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","text":"ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815091217","repostId":1191815337,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191815337","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630627840,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191815337?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 08:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September<blockquote>期权“尾巴”将继续摇晃股市的“狗”……直到九月中旬</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191815337","media":"zerohedge","summary":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting","content":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...<blockquote>从“伽马锤”到“伽马松绑”，今年拉高、抛售和BTFD的周期一直在持续，自5月份以来，围绕期权到期的模式变得越来越明显……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7076de5ca2ad0449cc411eb7af1aaf37\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes thatthe (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).<blockquote>野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特指出（期权市场）“尾巴”继续摇晃（现金股票市场）“狗”，受到“收益率提升”/“创收”重估流量的挤压（就连英国《金融时报》也开始关注这一点）。</blockquote> The surge into these 'overwriting' funds...<blockquote>涌入这些“包销”基金……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca90f6652e83b4d50274c525d9d8e0f0\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> ...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...<blockquote>...用极端水平的伽马和德尔塔暴露让毒贩们吃尽苦头……...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6477f30c8b5147bbb69d941e6aeebfe3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:<blockquote>对于这意味着什么的一些背景，野村策略师解释道：</blockquote> The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) - which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation” Which is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...<blockquote>仅“伽马锤”绞杀卖家的累积流量（每天 2 个片段，每周约 3 次，有效期约为 2-3 周，20d 绞杀）就使经销商在伽马射线上损失了约 30 亿美元（衰减成本接近 50 毫米/天）。这意味着，对于一般的 100 个基点抛售，理论上，desks 将在市场上购买约 25 亿美元的期货——这反过来又阻止了任何新兴的抛售，这要归功于上述 “隔离”。当我们看到自5月份以来没有出现3个基点的下调时，这是显而易见的……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b7bf4799004c692996b8cba846acf4\" tg-width=\"1256\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But, McElligott'sfocus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:<blockquote>但是，麦切利戈特的9 月中旬是美国股市可能在当地 “见顶”的时刻：</blockquote> ...as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon&nbsp; (VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th&nbsp;and set-up for another large “Gamma unclench” occurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration)&nbsp; coinciding with the “buyback blackout”kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd&nbsp;week of September… and all ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd Specifically, McElligott notes thatThe Fed timing here is particularly meaningful- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).<blockquote>...作为现在广为人知的Op-Ex周期“波动扩张”现象（VIX 指数第 15 位，指数/ETF 指数第 17 位，以及又一个大型“伽马松开”发生的同时也失去了前面提到的Vanna-和Charm-支持到这个大的连续/季度到期） 恰逢“回购停电”美国金融股将于 9 月第三周开盘……和22日联邦公开市场委员会会议之前具体来说，麦克埃利戈特指出美联储在这里的时机尤其有意义- 这并不是因为 “官方 ”宣布 “缩减规模 ”对市场来说是一笔巨大的交易（我相信我们现在已经远远超过了这一点），而更多的是因为委员会的经济预测以及 “dots ”可能会发生变化，这可能会导致一些利率剧变，因为 “dots ”在过去两个月中一直坚定地停留在自己的区间交易地狱之内（UST 10 年期国债收益率约为 1.10-1.40）。</blockquote> And because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&amp;P 500”).<blockquote>由于市场重置对未来加息路径（脱离新的经济预测）和缩减加息路径的预期，美国利率在第22次美联储会议前后可能会出现波动，我认为这种“事件风险”可能会减少“空头交易量”的供应，而空头交易量通常会在波动性扩大时介入。(即在 Op-Ex 周期前后，Op-Ex 周期终于成为 “主流”，现在似乎也是如此.请参阅彭博社上周末的文章《期权将动荡变成标普500月中必然的事情》）。</blockquote> This could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).<blockquote>这可能意味着在更长的时间内，如果没有上述 “短体积 ”资金的支持，这些资金会反射性地涌入以挽救局面，而在过去十多年里，这些资金一直在重置波动性的新兴峰值并止住出血。—如果这次我们看到这些资金流动由于一周后的 FOMC 事件风险而暂停，那么它们的潜在缺席可能会让 “delta one” 资金流动在最近比平时拥有更大的影响力（所有来自指数/ETF 期权的史诗 $delta 作为去风险流动的来源，以及 Vol 控制策略将供应分配到 rVol 中，使其在如此绝对低的基数上走高）。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September<blockquote>期权“尾巴”将继续摇晃股市的“狗”……直到九月中旬</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Options 'Tail' Will Continue To Wag The Stock Market's 'Dog'... Until Mid-September<blockquote>期权“尾巴”将继续摇晃股市的“狗”……直到九月中旬</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-09-03 08:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nFrom \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...<blockquote>从“伽马锤”到“伽马松绑”，今年拉高、抛售和BTFD的周期一直在持续，自5月份以来，围绕期权到期的模式变得越来越明显……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7076de5ca2ad0449cc411eb7af1aaf37\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes thatthe (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).<blockquote>野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特指出（期权市场）“尾巴”继续摇晃（现金股票市场）“狗”，受到“收益率提升”/“创收”重估流量的挤压（就连英国《金融时报》也开始关注这一点）。</blockquote> The surge into these 'overwriting' funds...<blockquote>涌入这些“包销”基金……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca90f6652e83b4d50274c525d9d8e0f0\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> ...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...<blockquote>...用极端水平的伽马和德尔塔暴露让毒贩们吃尽苦头……...</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6477f30c8b5147bbb69d941e6aeebfe3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">For some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:<blockquote>对于这意味着什么的一些背景，野村策略师解释道：</blockquote> The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) - which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation” Which is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...<blockquote>仅“伽马锤”绞杀卖家的累积流量（每天 2 个片段，每周约 3 次，有效期约为 2-3 周，20d 绞杀）就使经销商在伽马射线上损失了约 30 亿美元（衰减成本接近 50 毫米/天）。这意味着，对于一般的 100 个基点抛售，理论上，desks 将在市场上购买约 25 亿美元的期货——这反过来又阻止了任何新兴的抛售，这要归功于上述 “隔离”。当我们看到自5月份以来没有出现3个基点的下调时，这是显而易见的……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26b7bf4799004c692996b8cba846acf4\" tg-width=\"1256\" tg-height=\"555\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">But, McElligott'sfocus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:<blockquote>但是，麦切利戈特的9 月中旬是美国股市可能在当地 “见顶”的时刻：</blockquote> ...as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon&nbsp; (VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th&nbsp;and set-up for another large “Gamma unclench” occurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration)&nbsp; coinciding with the “buyback blackout”kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd&nbsp;week of September… and all ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd Specifically, McElligott notes thatThe Fed timing here is particularly meaningful- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).<blockquote>...作为现在广为人知的Op-Ex周期“波动扩张”现象（VIX 指数第 15 位，指数/ETF 指数第 17 位，以及又一个大型“伽马松开”发生的同时也失去了前面提到的Vanna-和Charm-支持到这个大的连续/季度到期） 恰逢“回购停电”美国金融股将于 9 月第三周开盘……和22日联邦公开市场委员会会议之前具体来说，麦克埃利戈特指出美联储在这里的时机尤其有意义- 这并不是因为 “官方 ”宣布 “缩减规模 ”对市场来说是一笔巨大的交易（我相信我们现在已经远远超过了这一点），而更多的是因为委员会的经济预测以及 “dots ”可能会发生变化，这可能会导致一些利率剧变，因为 “dots ”在过去两个月中一直坚定地停留在自己的区间交易地狱之内（UST 10 年期国债收益率约为 1.10-1.40）。</blockquote> And because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&amp;P 500”).<blockquote>由于市场重置对未来加息路径（脱离新的经济预测）和缩减加息路径的预期，美国利率在第22次美联储会议前后可能会出现波动，我认为这种“事件风险”可能会减少“空头交易量”的供应，而空头交易量通常会在波动性扩大时介入。(即在 Op-Ex 周期前后，Op-Ex 周期终于成为 “主流”，现在似乎也是如此.请参阅彭博社上周末的文章《期权将动荡变成标普500月中必然的事情》）。</blockquote> This could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).<blockquote>这可能意味着在更长的时间内，如果没有上述 “短体积 ”资金的支持，这些资金会反射性地涌入以挽救局面，而在过去十多年里，这些资金一直在重置波动性的新兴峰值并止住出血。—如果这次我们看到这些资金流动由于一周后的 FOMC 事件风险而暂停，那么它们的潜在缺席可能会让 “delta one” 资金流动在最近比平时拥有更大的影响力（所有来自指数/ETF 期权的史诗 $delta 作为去风险流动的来源，以及 Vol 控制策略将供应分配到 rVol 中，使其在如此绝对低的基数上走高）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/options-tail-will-continue-wag-stock-markets-dog-until-mid-september","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191815337","content_text":"From \"gamma hammers\" to \"gamma unclenching\", the cycles of pump, dump, and BTFD has been unrelenting this year, with the pattern around options expirations becoming more and more pronounced since May...\nNomura's Charlie McElligott notes thatthe (options market) “tail” continues to wag the (cash equities market) “dog,” crunched by “yield enhancement” / “income generating” overwriting flows(that even The FT is starting to pay attention to).\nThe surge into these 'overwriting' funds...\n\n...has stuffed dealers to the gills with gamma and delta exposures at extreme levels...\nFor some context on what this means, the Nomura strategist explains:\n\n The cumulative flows from the “Gamma Hammer” strangle-seller alone (2 clips a day, ~3x’s a week in approximately 2-3 week expiration 20d strangles) has Dealers long ~$3B in Gamma (and at a cost of nearly ~5.0mm / day in decay) -\n which means that for a generic 100bps selloff, desks would in theory be in the mkt buying ~$2.5B of futures - which in-turn prevents any nascent selloff from developing thanks to said “insulation”\n\nWhich is obvious when we see there hasn't been a 3bps drawdown since May...\nBut, McElligott'sfocus is on the mid-September period as the point where US Equities may locally “peak”:\n\n...as the now well-publicized Op-Ex cycle “volatility expansion” phenomenon \n (VIX 15th, index / ETFs 17th and set-up for\nanother large “Gamma unclench”\noccurring while then too losing aforementioned Vanna- and Charm- supports into this large serial / qtrly expiration) \n coinciding with the “buyback blackout”kicking-off for US Financials in that 3rd week of September…\n and\nall ahead of the FOMC on the 22nd\n\nSpecifically, McElligott notes thatThe Fed timing here is particularly meaningful- not because the potential for an “official” announcement of “tapering” is some massive deal to markets (I believe we are well past that now) - but more because the potential for movement in the Committee’s economic projections and thus, the “dots,” which could cause some Rates upheaval after being firmly parked within their own range-trade hellscape for the past two months themselves (UST 10Y yields ~1.10-1.40).\nAnd because of the potential for US Rates volatility around / after the 22nd Fed meeting as the market resets expectations on both the future path of hikes (off the new economic projections) and tapering,I think this “event risk” could then decrease the supply of “short vol” which has been conditioned to step-in the moment that volatility typically expands(i.e. around the Op-Ex cycle, which has finally gone “mainstream” and seemingly now trades like it too….see this past weekend’s write-up from Bloomberg “Options Turn Upheavals Into a Mid-Month Sure Thing for S&P 500”).\nThis could mean a longer period without the support that comes from said “short vol” flows reflexively swooping-in to save the day, which over the past decade + have acted to reset nascent spikes in volatility and stop the bleeding—IF this time we were to see those flows on hold due to the FOMC event risk a week later, their potential absence could allow for the “delta one” flow to hold more sway than usual of late (all that EPIC $Delta from index / ETF options as a source of de-risking flow, as well as Vol Control strategy de-allocation supply into an rVol move higher off of such an absolutely low base).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2494,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/815091217"}