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2021-09-02

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Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>

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The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall ","content":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?<blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(AAPL)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.<blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（苹果）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.<blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote> Why bearish on Apple?<blockquote>为什么看空苹果？</blockquote> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.<blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:<blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote> “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.” Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.<blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote> Could AAPL sink 40%?<blockquote>苹果能下跌40%吗？</blockquote> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).<blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.<blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.<blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s take<blockquote>苹果专家的看法</blockquote> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.<blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.<blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nThestreet2021-09-02 22:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOne of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?<blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(AAPL)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.<blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（苹果）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.<blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote> Why bearish on Apple?<blockquote>为什么看空苹果？</blockquote> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.<blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:<blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote> “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.” Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.<blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote> Could AAPL sink 40%?<blockquote>苹果能下跌40%吗？</blockquote> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).<blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.<blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.<blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s take<blockquote>苹果专家的看法</blockquote> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.<blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.<blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40\">Thestreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131318558","content_text":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?\nOn the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock (AAPL) finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.\nCould New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.\nWhy bearish on Apple?\nThe core of Pierre’s bearish argument seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.\nNew Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”\n\nStill on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.\nCould AAPL sink 40%?\nNow, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).\nOn results,Wall Street currently sees fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.\nOn valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.\nTherefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/812276716"}