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2021-08-26
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Apple Has 2 Secret Weapons. No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两个秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhones。</blockquote>
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No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两个秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhones。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125030506","media":"Barrons","summary":"For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, li","content":"<p>For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, likely to be introduced sometime next month. But the company has other levers to drive growth, and not all of them involve hardware.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果投资者来说，未来几周的焦点将是下一代iPhone，它可能会在下个月某个时候推出。但该公司还有其他推动增长的杠杆，而且并非所有杠杆都涉及硬件。</blockquote></p><p> In particular,Apple(ticker: AAPL) has a substantial and growing opportunity in advertising and search revenue. A pair of research notes from the Street on Wednesday highlight how both areas should provide a material boost to top-line growth in the months and years ahead — while also noting a few associated risks.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在广告和搜索收入方面拥有巨大且不断增长的机会。华尔街周三发布的两份研究报告强调了这两个领域应该如何在未来几个月和几年为营收增长提供实质性推动，同时也指出了一些相关风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a new report, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani dove into Apple’s growing opportunity in advertising, and he likes what he found. Daryanani thinks Apple’s ad business can grow to $20 billion in the September 2025 fiscal year, from an estimated $2 billion in fiscal 2020, most of that from App Store ads.</p><p><blockquote>在一份新报告中，Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani深入探讨了苹果在广告领域不断增长的机会，他喜欢自己的发现。Daryanani认为，到2025年9月财年，苹果的广告业务可能会从2020财年的估计20亿美元增长到200亿美元，其中大部分来自App Store广告。</blockquote></p><p> He notes that the projected growth would be similar to that of Amazon’s(AMZN) ad business, which has expanded to about $20 billion from about $3 billion over a four-year span. Daryanani asserts that ads could account for as much as 9% of Apple’s earnings per share in fiscal 2025 if the business hits his target.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，预计的增长将与亚马逊(AMZN)广告业务的增长类似，该业务在四年内已从约30亿美元扩大到约200亿美元。Daryanani声称，如果业务达到他的目标，ads可能占苹果2025财年每股收益的9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple’s advertising business remains an underappreciated lever for upside as we go forward and provides them with a unique way to ensure consumer privacy is upheld, but also further enhance the monetization mechanisms,” Daryanani writes in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>达里亚纳尼在一份研究报告中写道：“随着我们的前进，苹果的广告业务仍然是一个未被充分重视的上升杠杆，并为他们提供了一种独特的方式来确保消费者隐私得到维护，同时也进一步增强了货币化机制。”</blockquote></p><p> Under Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency” program, apps must ask for permission before tracking user activity across other companies’ apps and websites. The program has been positioned as a privacy measure, but has the secondary effect of shifting more ad dollars to Apple’s own advertising platform.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果的“应用程序跟踪透明度”计划，应用程序在跟踪其他公司应用程序和网站的用户活动之前必须获得许可。该计划被定位为隐私措施，但具有将更多广告收入转移到苹果自己的广告平台的次要效果。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani sees the biggest opportunity in shifting the App Store ad platform to content discovery, not just content delivery — ads offer a way for app developers to attract customers, in the same way that Amazon ads help sellers cut through the clutter to lure shoppers. And he sees additional advertising opportunities in Apple Maps and Apple TV+, among other places.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani认为最大的机会是将App Store广告平台转向内容发现，而不仅仅是内容交付——广告为应用开发者提供了一种吸引客户的方式，就像亚马逊广告帮助卖家减少混乱以吸引购物者一样。他在苹果地图和苹果TV+等地方看到了更多的广告机会。</blockquote></p><p> “Advertising is a great growth opportunity for Apple and their tremendous installed base gives them a competitive advantage that they have not effectively exploited in the past,” he adds. “Recent actions indicate this is set to change as Apple looks to capture its fair share of a $1 trillion market.”</p><p><blockquote>“广告对苹果来说是一个巨大的增长机会，他们庞大的安装基础为他们提供了过去没有有效利用的竞争优势，”他补充道。“最近的行动表明，随着苹果希望在1万亿美元的市场中占据公平份额，这种情况将会改变。”</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani is not the only analyst that sees potential expansion in the Apple ad business. Earlier this month,Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote a long research note on the same topic; his conclusion was that ads could be a $7 billion to $10 billion business for Apple in fiscal 2023 or 2024. He noted that growth drivers for the Apple ad business include the June addition of search ads in China, higher ad loads, and the introduction of banner ads to the App Store in May. Sacconaghi also pointed out that Apple generates very modest revenue today — likely under $500 million a year — from ads in the Apple News and Stocks apps. Daryanani echoed all of those points in his report.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani并不是唯一一位看到苹果广告业务潜在扩张的分析师。本月早些时候，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）就同一主题撰写了一篇长篇研究报告；他的结论是，在2023或2024财年，广告可能成为苹果70亿至100亿美元的业务。他指出，苹果广告业务的增长动力包括6月份在中国增加的搜索广告、更高的广告负载以及5月份在App Store引入横幅广告。萨科纳吉还指出，苹果目前从苹果新闻和股票应用程序中的广告中产生的收入非常有限，每年可能不到5亿美元。Daryanani在他的报告中呼应了所有这些观点。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in a new note on Wednesday, Sacconaghi turns his attention to Apple’s search relationship with Google, a unit of Alphabet(GOOGL). Google pays Apple a substantial annual fee to be the default search engine on the iPhone — a relationship that has drawn the attention of the Justice Department, which last year filed suit against Google for monopolizing its control of the search market,specifically citing the Apple deal in the complaint.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在周三的一份新报告中，萨科纳吉将注意力转向了苹果与Alphabet（GOOGL）旗下谷歌的搜索关系。谷歌向苹果支付了一大笔年费，成为iPhone的默认搜索引擎——这种关系引起了司法部的注意，司法部去年起诉谷歌垄断了搜索市场的控制权，特别是在诉状中引用了苹果的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Neither Apple nor Google has been transparent about the terms of their relationship. Sacconaghi this morning writes that he now thinks Google’s payments to Apple in fiscal 2020 were $10 billion, higher than his previous estimate of $8 billion. And he thinks the payment could jump to $15 billion in fiscal 2021, driving up Apple’s services revenue, and contributing an estimated 9% of Apple’s overall gross profits. He estimates that 39% of Google’s traffic acquisition costs this year will go to Apple, up from an estimated 13% in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和谷歌都没有公开他们的关系条款。萨科纳吉今天早上写道，他现在认为谷歌在2020财年向苹果支付的款项为100亿美元，高于他之前估计的80亿美元。他认为，到2021财年，这笔付款可能会跃升至150亿美元，从而推高苹果的服务收入，并贡献苹果整体毛利润的约9%。他估计，谷歌今年39%的流量获取成本将流向苹果，高于2013年估计的13%。</blockquote></p><p> Search is really the largest advertising pool for Apple. Sacconaghi estimates that Apple’s overall revenue from advertising in fiscal 2020 was $12.4 billion – and that $10 billion of that came from the company’s search relationship with Google.</p><p><blockquote>搜索确实是苹果最大的广告池。Sacconaghi估计，苹果2020财年的广告总收入为124亿美元，其中100亿美元来自该公司与谷歌的搜索关系。</blockquote></p><p> Sacconaghi sees some risk in Apple’s growing connection with Google. For one thing, there is regulatory focus on the situation – although he thinks any conclusion of the Justice Department lawsuit is “years away,” he sees a potential 4% to 5% risk to Apple’s profits from an adverse ruling. He also thinks there is some risk that Google could choose to stop paying Apple, or look to renegotiate the terms of its deal and pay less.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉认为苹果与谷歌日益增长的联系存在一些风险。一方面，监管机构正在关注这种情况——尽管他认为司法部诉讼的任何结论“还需要数年时间”，但他认为不利裁决可能会给苹果的利润带来4%至5%的潜在风险。他还认为，谷歌可能会选择停止向苹果付款，或者寻求重新谈判交易条款并减少付款，这存在一定的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sacconaghi says Google pays up for the deal in part to ensure Microsoft(MSFT) — the only real rival for Google in search — does not outbid it. But he also says that with payments to Apple likely to approach $20 billion in fiscal 2022, “it is not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉表示，谷歌支付这笔交易的部分原因是为了确保微软（MSFT）——谷歌在搜索领域唯一真正的竞争对手——的出价不会高于它。但他也表示，由于2022财年向苹果支付的款项可能接近200亿美元，“谷歌重新审视其战略并非不可能。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Has 2 Secret Weapons. No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两个秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhones。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Has 2 Secret Weapons. No, They're Not New iPhones.<blockquote>苹果有两个秘密武器。不，它们不是新的iPhones。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-26 14:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, likely to be introduced sometime next month. But the company has other levers to drive growth, and not all of them involve hardware.</p><p><blockquote>对于苹果投资者来说，未来几周的焦点将是下一代iPhone，它可能会在下个月某个时候推出。但该公司还有其他推动增长的杠杆，而且并非所有杠杆都涉及硬件。</blockquote></p><p> In particular,Apple(ticker: AAPL) has a substantial and growing opportunity in advertising and search revenue. A pair of research notes from the Street on Wednesday highlight how both areas should provide a material boost to top-line growth in the months and years ahead — while also noting a few associated risks.</p><p><blockquote>特别是，苹果（股票代码：AAPL）在广告和搜索收入方面拥有巨大且不断增长的机会。华尔街周三发布的两份研究报告强调了这两个领域应该如何在未来几个月和几年为营收增长提供实质性推动，同时也指出了一些相关风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a new report, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani dove into Apple’s growing opportunity in advertising, and he likes what he found. Daryanani thinks Apple’s ad business can grow to $20 billion in the September 2025 fiscal year, from an estimated $2 billion in fiscal 2020, most of that from App Store ads.</p><p><blockquote>在一份新报告中，Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani深入探讨了苹果在广告领域不断增长的机会，他喜欢自己的发现。Daryanani认为，到2025年9月财年，苹果的广告业务可能会从2020财年的估计20亿美元增长到200亿美元，其中大部分来自App Store广告。</blockquote></p><p> He notes that the projected growth would be similar to that of Amazon’s(AMZN) ad business, which has expanded to about $20 billion from about $3 billion over a four-year span. Daryanani asserts that ads could account for as much as 9% of Apple’s earnings per share in fiscal 2025 if the business hits his target.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，预计的增长将与亚马逊(AMZN)广告业务的增长类似，该业务在四年内已从约30亿美元扩大到约200亿美元。Daryanani声称，如果业务达到他的目标，ads可能占苹果2025财年每股收益的9%。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple’s advertising business remains an underappreciated lever for upside as we go forward and provides them with a unique way to ensure consumer privacy is upheld, but also further enhance the monetization mechanisms,” Daryanani writes in a research note.</p><p><blockquote>达里亚纳尼在一份研究报告中写道：“随着我们的前进，苹果的广告业务仍然是一个未被充分重视的上升杠杆，并为他们提供了一种独特的方式来确保消费者隐私得到维护，同时也进一步增强了货币化机制。”</blockquote></p><p> Under Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency” program, apps must ask for permission before tracking user activity across other companies’ apps and websites. The program has been positioned as a privacy measure, but has the secondary effect of shifting more ad dollars to Apple’s own advertising platform.</p><p><blockquote>根据苹果的“应用程序跟踪透明度”计划，应用程序在跟踪其他公司应用程序和网站的用户活动之前必须获得许可。该计划被定位为隐私措施，但具有将更多广告收入转移到苹果自己的广告平台的次要效果。</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani sees the biggest opportunity in shifting the App Store ad platform to content discovery, not just content delivery — ads offer a way for app developers to attract customers, in the same way that Amazon ads help sellers cut through the clutter to lure shoppers. And he sees additional advertising opportunities in Apple Maps and Apple TV+, among other places.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani认为最大的机会是将App Store广告平台转向内容发现，而不仅仅是内容交付——广告为应用开发者提供了一种吸引客户的方式，就像亚马逊广告帮助卖家减少混乱以吸引购物者一样。他在苹果地图和苹果TV+等地方看到了更多的广告机会。</blockquote></p><p> “Advertising is a great growth opportunity for Apple and their tremendous installed base gives them a competitive advantage that they have not effectively exploited in the past,” he adds. “Recent actions indicate this is set to change as Apple looks to capture its fair share of a $1 trillion market.”</p><p><blockquote>“广告对苹果来说是一个巨大的增长机会，他们庞大的安装基础为他们提供了过去没有有效利用的竞争优势，”他补充道。“最近的行动表明，随着苹果希望在1万亿美元的市场中占据公平份额，这种情况将会改变。”</blockquote></p><p> Daryanani is not the only analyst that sees potential expansion in the Apple ad business. Earlier this month,Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote a long research note on the same topic; his conclusion was that ads could be a $7 billion to $10 billion business for Apple in fiscal 2023 or 2024. He noted that growth drivers for the Apple ad business include the June addition of search ads in China, higher ad loads, and the introduction of banner ads to the App Store in May. Sacconaghi also pointed out that Apple generates very modest revenue today — likely under $500 million a year — from ads in the Apple News and Stocks apps. Daryanani echoed all of those points in his report.</p><p><blockquote>Daryanani并不是唯一一位看到苹果广告业务潜在扩张的分析师。本月早些时候，伯恩斯坦分析师托尼·萨科纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）就同一主题撰写了一篇长篇研究报告；他的结论是，在2023或2024财年，广告可能成为苹果70亿至100亿美元的业务。他指出，苹果广告业务的增长动力包括6月份在中国增加的搜索广告、更高的广告负载以及5月份在App Store引入横幅广告。萨科纳吉还指出，苹果目前从苹果新闻和股票应用程序中的广告中产生的收入非常有限，每年可能不到5亿美元。Daryanani在他的报告中呼应了所有这些观点。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, in a new note on Wednesday, Sacconaghi turns his attention to Apple’s search relationship with Google, a unit of Alphabet(GOOGL). Google pays Apple a substantial annual fee to be the default search engine on the iPhone — a relationship that has drawn the attention of the Justice Department, which last year filed suit against Google for monopolizing its control of the search market,specifically citing the Apple deal in the complaint.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在周三的一份新报告中，萨科纳吉将注意力转向了苹果与Alphabet（GOOGL）旗下谷歌的搜索关系。谷歌向苹果支付了一大笔年费，成为iPhone的默认搜索引擎——这种关系引起了司法部的注意，司法部去年起诉谷歌垄断了搜索市场的控制权，特别是在诉状中引用了苹果的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Neither Apple nor Google has been transparent about the terms of their relationship. Sacconaghi this morning writes that he now thinks Google’s payments to Apple in fiscal 2020 were $10 billion, higher than his previous estimate of $8 billion. And he thinks the payment could jump to $15 billion in fiscal 2021, driving up Apple’s services revenue, and contributing an estimated 9% of Apple’s overall gross profits. He estimates that 39% of Google’s traffic acquisition costs this year will go to Apple, up from an estimated 13% in 2013.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和谷歌都没有公开他们的关系条款。萨科纳吉今天早上写道，他现在认为谷歌在2020财年向苹果支付的款项为100亿美元，高于他之前估计的80亿美元。他认为，到2021财年，这笔付款可能会跃升至150亿美元，从而推高苹果的服务收入，并贡献苹果整体毛利润的约9%。他估计，谷歌今年39%的流量获取成本将流向苹果，高于2013年估计的13%。</blockquote></p><p> Search is really the largest advertising pool for Apple. Sacconaghi estimates that Apple’s overall revenue from advertising in fiscal 2020 was $12.4 billion – and that $10 billion of that came from the company’s search relationship with Google.</p><p><blockquote>搜索确实是苹果最大的广告池。Sacconaghi估计，苹果2020财年的广告总收入为124亿美元，其中100亿美元来自该公司与谷歌的搜索关系。</blockquote></p><p> Sacconaghi sees some risk in Apple’s growing connection with Google. For one thing, there is regulatory focus on the situation – although he thinks any conclusion of the Justice Department lawsuit is “years away,” he sees a potential 4% to 5% risk to Apple’s profits from an adverse ruling. He also thinks there is some risk that Google could choose to stop paying Apple, or look to renegotiate the terms of its deal and pay less.</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉认为苹果与谷歌日益增长的联系存在一些风险。一方面，监管机构正在关注这种情况——尽管他认为司法部诉讼的任何结论“还需要数年时间”，但他认为不利裁决可能会给苹果的利润带来4%至5%的潜在风险。他还认为，谷歌可能会选择停止向苹果付款，或者寻求重新谈判交易条款并减少付款，这存在一定的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Sacconaghi says Google pays up for the deal in part to ensure Microsoft(MSFT) — the only real rival for Google in search — does not outbid it. But he also says that with payments to Apple likely to approach $20 billion in fiscal 2022, “it is not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.”</p><p><blockquote>萨科纳吉表示，谷歌支付这笔交易的部分原因是为了确保微软（MSFT）——谷歌在搜索领域唯一真正的竞争对手——的出价不会高于它。但他也表示，由于2022财年向苹果支付的款项可能接近200亿美元，“谷歌重新审视其战略并非不可能。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apples-secret-weapons-advertising-search-51629906248?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apples-secret-weapons-advertising-search-51629906248?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125030506","content_text":"For Apple investors, the focus over the next few weeks is going to be the next generation iPhone, likely to be introduced sometime next month. But the company has other levers to drive growth, and not all of them involve hardware.\nIn particular,Apple(ticker: AAPL) has a substantial and growing opportunity in advertising and search revenue. A pair of research notes from the Street on Wednesday highlight how both areas should provide a material boost to top-line growth in the months and years ahead — while also noting a few associated risks.\nIn a new report, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani dove into Apple’s growing opportunity in advertising, and he likes what he found. Daryanani thinks Apple’s ad business can grow to $20 billion in the September 2025 fiscal year, from an estimated $2 billion in fiscal 2020, most of that from App Store ads.\nHe notes that the projected growth would be similar to that of Amazon’s(AMZN) ad business, which has expanded to about $20 billion from about $3 billion over a four-year span. Daryanani asserts that ads could account for as much as 9% of Apple’s earnings per share in fiscal 2025 if the business hits his target.\n“Apple’s advertising business remains an underappreciated lever for upside as we go forward and provides them with a unique way to ensure consumer privacy is upheld, but also further enhance the monetization mechanisms,” Daryanani writes in a research note.\nUnder Apple’s “App Tracking Transparency” program, apps must ask for permission before tracking user activity across other companies’ apps and websites. The program has been positioned as a privacy measure, but has the secondary effect of shifting more ad dollars to Apple’s own advertising platform.\nDaryanani sees the biggest opportunity in shifting the App Store ad platform to content discovery, not just content delivery — ads offer a way for app developers to attract customers, in the same way that Amazon ads help sellers cut through the clutter to lure shoppers. And he sees additional advertising opportunities in Apple Maps and Apple TV+, among other places.\n“Advertising is a great growth opportunity for Apple and their tremendous installed base gives them a competitive advantage that they have not effectively exploited in the past,” he adds. “Recent actions indicate this is set to change as Apple looks to capture its fair share of a $1 trillion market.”\nDaryanani is not the only analyst that sees potential expansion in the Apple ad business. Earlier this month,Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote a long research note on the same topic; his conclusion was that ads could be a $7 billion to $10 billion business for Apple in fiscal 2023 or 2024. He noted that growth drivers for the Apple ad business include the June addition of search ads in China, higher ad loads, and the introduction of banner ads to the App Store in May. Sacconaghi also pointed out that Apple generates very modest revenue today — likely under $500 million a year — from ads in the Apple News and Stocks apps. Daryanani echoed all of those points in his report.\nMeanwhile, in a new note on Wednesday, Sacconaghi turns his attention to Apple’s search relationship with Google, a unit of Alphabet(GOOGL). Google pays Apple a substantial annual fee to be the default search engine on the iPhone — a relationship that has drawn the attention of the Justice Department, which last year filed suit against Google for monopolizing its control of the search market,specifically citing the Apple deal in the complaint.\nNeither Apple nor Google has been transparent about the terms of their relationship. Sacconaghi this morning writes that he now thinks Google’s payments to Apple in fiscal 2020 were $10 billion, higher than his previous estimate of $8 billion. And he thinks the payment could jump to $15 billion in fiscal 2021, driving up Apple’s services revenue, and contributing an estimated 9% of Apple’s overall gross profits. He estimates that 39% of Google’s traffic acquisition costs this year will go to Apple, up from an estimated 13% in 2013.\nSearch is really the largest advertising pool for Apple. Sacconaghi estimates that Apple’s overall revenue from advertising in fiscal 2020 was $12.4 billion – and that $10 billion of that came from the company’s search relationship with Google.\nSacconaghi sees some risk in Apple’s growing connection with Google. For one thing, there is regulatory focus on the situation – although he thinks any conclusion of the Justice Department lawsuit is “years away,” he sees a potential 4% to 5% risk to Apple’s profits from an adverse ruling. He also thinks there is some risk that Google could choose to stop paying Apple, or look to renegotiate the terms of its deal and pay less.\nSacconaghi says Google pays up for the deal in part to ensure Microsoft(MSFT) — the only real rival for Google in search — does not outbid it. But he also says that with payments to Apple likely to approach $20 billion in fiscal 2022, “it is not implausible that Google could revisit its strategy.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/810239344"}
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