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2021-07-29

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Here's why the 10-year yield is so low, and the summer event that could change it, from Bank of America<blockquote>以下是美国银行 10 年期国债收益率如此之低的原因，以及可能改变这一状况的夏季事件</blockquote>

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There also also has been some damage-control moves by Chinese officials after a series of regulatory blows sent investors in technology and other shares from the country running for cover.<blockquote>周四交易时段，股票期货喜忧参半，亚马逊的业绩将成为晚些时候的焦点。在一系列监管打击导致科技股和其他股票投资者逃离中国寻求庇护之后，中国官员也采取了一些损害控制措施。</blockquote> Investors are also considering over the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, which left the status quo in place for interest rates and asset buys. That's as some, like Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team, \"see the beginning of an initial nod toward a tapering of asset purchases at some point.\"<blockquote>投资者还在考虑美联储会议的结果，该会议维持了利率和资产购买的现状。德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德和他的团队等一些人“看到了在某个时候缩减资产购买规模的初步点头的开始”。</blockquote> Another burning question for investors right now, why are 10-year rates so low? Our call of the day comes from Bank of America strategists who think they've cracked it.<blockquote>投资者现在面临的另一个紧迫问题是，为什么 10 年期利率如此之低？我们今天的看涨期权来自美国银行策略师，他们认为自己已经破解了这个问题。</blockquote> \"Clients point to strong growth -- currently tracking 4.1% for 3Q -- and CPI inflation running above 5%. But we think the rates market is focused on 2023 and beyond, and are increasingly questioning the ability of the Fed to deliver a substantial hiking cycle,\" wrote lead strategist Ralph Axel and the team.<blockquote>“客户指出增长强劲——目前第三季度为 4.1%——CPI 通胀率高于 5%。但我们认为利率市场关注 2023 年及以后，并越来越质疑美联储实现大幅加息的能力。”首席策略师拉尔夫·阿克塞尔和团队写道。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4dde25f0e3848e31e9420ff3ff2277\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"351\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Traders don't see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10 year rate of 3.2% in November 2018, said the strategists.<blockquote>策略师表示，交易员并不认为美联储会重复 2015-2018 年加息周期，该周期在 2018 年 12 月将政策利率区间提升至 2.25%-2.50%，并在 2018 年 11 月达到 3.2% 的 10 年期峰值。</blockquote> For equity investors, the yield is important as lower levels help to boost tech stocks in particular as they make borrowing easier for those types of companies. If rates start going up, some could fear it will draw money out of the stock market as investors seek better returns.<blockquote>对于股票投资者来说，收益率很重要，因为较低的收益率有助于提振科技股，特别是使这类公司更容易借贷。如果利率开始上升，一些人可能会担心，随着投资者寻求更好的回报，这会将资金撤出股市。</blockquote> Bank of America doesn't see a sharp rise in rates such as was seen in the first quarter -- driven by positive vaccine surprises and fiscal stimulus -- but they see scope for modestly higher rates in the next six to 12 months. \"We have not changed our forecast for 10y rates at 1.9% by year-end, but downside risks to our forecast have increased,\" he said.<blockquote>美国银行认为，在积极的疫苗意外和财政刺激的推动下，利率不会像第一季度那样大幅上升，但他们认为未来 6 到 12 个月利率有小幅上升的空间。他表示：“我们没有改变年底前 10 年期利率 1.9% 的预测，但我们预测的下行风险有所增加。”</blockquote> Axel said they are keeping a keen eye on next week's payroll reports that is said will help \"set the tone for the rest of the summer.\"<blockquote>阿克塞尔表示，他们正在密切关注下周的工资报告，据说这将有助于“为夏季剩余时间定下基调”。</blockquote> \"If jobs are strong and inflation becomes more widespread across the CPI basket, and the Fed does not react hawkishly to strong data, we think there is scope for higher rates as long as disruptions due to COVID-19 remain well contained. These are the fundamental ingredients we will need to regain confidence in our 1.9% call for 10y rates,\" they said.<blockquote>“如果就业强劲，通胀在整个 CPI 篮子中变得更加普遍，并且美联储没有对强劲的数据做出强硬反应，我们认为只要 COVID-19 造成的干扰得到很好的控制，就有加息的空间。这些是我们需要的基本要素，”他们说。</blockquote> A weak jobs report next week, though would fuel worries of \"moving past peak growth, peak inflation, peak stimulus and perhaps even peak interest rates.\"<blockquote>不过，下周疲软的就业报告将加剧人们对“增长峰值、通胀峰值、刺激峰值，甚至利率峰值”的担忧。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's why the 10-year yield is so low, and the summer event that could change it, from Bank of America<blockquote>以下是美国银行 10 年期国债收益率如此之低的原因，以及可能改变这一状况的夏季事件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's why the 10-year yield is so low, and the summer event that could change it, from Bank of America<blockquote>以下是美国银行 10 年期国债收益率如此之低的原因，以及可能改变这一状况的夏季事件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-07-29 19:44\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nStock futures are a mixed bag headed into Thursday's session, with Amazon.com's results in the spotlight for later. There also also has been some damage-control moves by Chinese officials after a series of regulatory blows sent investors in technology and other shares from the country running for cover.<blockquote>周四交易时段，股票期货喜忧参半，亚马逊的业绩将成为晚些时候的焦点。在一系列监管打击导致科技股和其他股票投资者逃离中国寻求庇护之后，中国官员也采取了一些损害控制措施。</blockquote> Investors are also considering over the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, which left the status quo in place for interest rates and asset buys. That's as some, like Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team, \"see the beginning of an initial nod toward a tapering of asset purchases at some point.\"<blockquote>投资者还在考虑美联储会议的结果，该会议维持了利率和资产购买的现状。德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德和他的团队等一些人“看到了在某个时候缩减资产购买规模的初步点头的开始”。</blockquote> Another burning question for investors right now, why are 10-year rates so low? Our call of the day comes from Bank of America strategists who think they've cracked it.<blockquote>投资者现在面临的另一个紧迫问题是，为什么 10 年期利率如此之低？我们今天的看涨期权来自美国银行策略师，他们认为自己已经破解了这个问题。</blockquote> \"Clients point to strong growth -- currently tracking 4.1% for 3Q -- and CPI inflation running above 5%. But we think the rates market is focused on 2023 and beyond, and are increasingly questioning the ability of the Fed to deliver a substantial hiking cycle,\" wrote lead strategist Ralph Axel and the team.<blockquote>“客户指出增长强劲——目前第三季度为 4.1%——CPI 通胀率高于 5%。但我们认为利率市场关注 2023 年及以后，并越来越质疑美联储实现大幅加息的能力。”首席策略师拉尔夫·阿克塞尔和团队写道。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f4dde25f0e3848e31e9420ff3ff2277\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"351\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Traders don't see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10 year rate of 3.2% in November 2018, said the strategists.<blockquote>策略师表示，交易员并不认为美联储会重复 2015-2018 年加息周期，该周期在 2018 年 12 月将政策利率区间提升至 2.25%-2.50%，并在 2018 年 11 月达到 3.2% 的 10 年期峰值。</blockquote> For equity investors, the yield is important as lower levels help to boost tech stocks in particular as they make borrowing easier for those types of companies. If rates start going up, some could fear it will draw money out of the stock market as investors seek better returns.<blockquote>对于股票投资者来说，收益率很重要，因为较低的收益率有助于提振科技股，特别是使这类公司更容易借贷。如果利率开始上升，一些人可能会担心，随着投资者寻求更好的回报，这会将资金撤出股市。</blockquote> Bank of America doesn't see a sharp rise in rates such as was seen in the first quarter -- driven by positive vaccine surprises and fiscal stimulus -- but they see scope for modestly higher rates in the next six to 12 months. \"We have not changed our forecast for 10y rates at 1.9% by year-end, but downside risks to our forecast have increased,\" he said.<blockquote>美国银行认为，在积极的疫苗意外和财政刺激的推动下，利率不会像第一季度那样大幅上升，但他们认为未来 6 到 12 个月利率有小幅上升的空间。他表示：“我们没有改变年底前 10 年期利率 1.9% 的预测，但我们预测的下行风险有所增加。”</blockquote> Axel said they are keeping a keen eye on next week's payroll reports that is said will help \"set the tone for the rest of the summer.\"<blockquote>阿克塞尔表示，他们正在密切关注下周的工资报告，据说这将有助于“为夏季剩余时间定下基调”。</blockquote> \"If jobs are strong and inflation becomes more widespread across the CPI basket, and the Fed does not react hawkishly to strong data, we think there is scope for higher rates as long as disruptions due to COVID-19 remain well contained. These are the fundamental ingredients we will need to regain confidence in our 1.9% call for 10y rates,\" they said.<blockquote>“如果就业强劲，通胀在整个 CPI 篮子中变得更加普遍，并且美联储没有对强劲的数据做出强硬反应，我们认为只要 COVID-19 造成的干扰得到很好的控制，就有加息的空间。这些是我们需要的基本要素，”他们说。</blockquote> A weak jobs report next week, though would fuel worries of \"moving past peak growth, peak inflation, peak stimulus and perhaps even peak interest rates.\"<blockquote>不过，下周疲软的就业报告将加剧人们对“增长峰值、通胀峰值、刺激峰值，甚至利率峰值”的担忧。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-10-year-yield-is-so-low-and-the-summer-event-that-could-change-it-from-bank-of-america-11627556870?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-10-year-yield-is-so-low-and-the-summer-event-that-could-change-it-from-bank-of-america-11627556870?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155090430","content_text":"Stock futures are a mixed bag headed into Thursday's session, with Amazon.com's results in the spotlight for later. There also also has been some damage-control moves by Chinese officials after a series of regulatory blows sent investors in technology and other shares from the country running for cover.\nInvestors are also considering over the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, which left the status quo in place for interest rates and asset buys. That's as some, like Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team, \"see the beginning of an initial nod toward a tapering of asset purchases at some point.\"\nAnother burning question for investors right now, why are 10-year rates so low? Our call of the day comes from Bank of America strategists who think they've cracked it.\n\"Clients point to strong growth -- currently tracking 4.1% for 3Q -- and CPI inflation running above 5%. But we think the rates market is focused on 2023 and beyond, and are increasingly questioning the ability of the Fed to deliver a substantial hiking cycle,\" wrote lead strategist Ralph Axel and the team.\n\nTraders don't see the Fed repeating the 2015-2018 hiking cycle, which brought the policy rate band to 2.25%-2.50% in December 2018, and a peak 10 year rate of 3.2% in November 2018, said the strategists.\nFor equity investors, the yield is important as lower levels help to boost tech stocks in particular as they make borrowing easier for those types of companies. If rates start going up, some could fear it will draw money out of the stock market as investors seek better returns.\nBank of America doesn't see a sharp rise in rates such as was seen in the first quarter -- driven by positive vaccine surprises and fiscal stimulus -- but they see scope for modestly higher rates in the next six to 12 months. \"We have not changed our forecast for 10y rates at 1.9% by year-end, but downside risks to our forecast have increased,\" he said.\nAxel said they are keeping a keen eye on next week's payroll reports that is said will help \"set the tone for the rest of the summer.\"\n\"If jobs are strong and inflation becomes more widespread across the CPI basket, and the Fed does not react hawkishly to strong data, we think there is scope for higher rates as long as disruptions due to COVID-19 remain well contained. These are the fundamental ingredients we will need to regain confidence in our 1.9% call for 10y rates,\" they said.\nA weak jobs report next week, though would fuel worries of \"moving past peak growth, peak inflation, peak stimulus and perhaps even peak interest rates.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1675,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/808355381"}