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2021-07-29

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AMD Is The New Bellwether<blockquote>AMD是新的领头羊</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":808351719,"tweetId":"808351719","gmtCreate":1627560109031,"gmtModify":1633763816161,"author":{"id":3571534392484576,"idStr":"3571534392484576","authorId":3571534392484576,"authorIdStr":"3571534392484576","name":"Cheng67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bab10b20b16c407349010c72c9f3dad3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Done</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Done</body></html>","text":"Done","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808351719","repostId":1131779285,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131779285","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627551074,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131779285?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Is The New Bellwether<blockquote>AMD是新的领头羊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131779285","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>AMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to be.</li> <li>The revenue growth and valuations prove the market wants one thing: Growth.</li> <li>Intel has lost the bellwether title as it grows below the industry and AMD grows above it.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a41ea3a1a9c98364332ee70330427e8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">nantonov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>AMD 周二的收益报告让我对我的钱应该去哪里感到困惑。</li><li>收入增长和估值证明市场想要一件事：增长。</li><li>英特尔已经失去了领头羊的头衔，因为它的增长低于行业，而 AMD 的增长高于行业。</li></ul>nantonov/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> It's hard to deny AMD (AMD) isn't the new up-and-coming bellwether of logic semiconductors, a position undoubtedly claimed by the chip king Intel (INTC). With AMD's&nbsp;latest earnings report&nbsp;on Tuesday, the title is no longer uncontested, even with the dramatic difference in absolute dollar figures between the two. One is growing big time while the other has been in a perpetual state of discord, in part or in whole, due to unresolved business direction. On Tuesday, AMD proved it isn't relenting any time soon in its pursuit of taking the semiconductor bellwether title. In fact, it may change the definition altogether as the growth it's producing in this sector is unheard of. It's time I give AMD the thumbs up and not just watch on the sidelines.<blockquote>很难否认 AMD (AMD) 并不是逻辑半导体领域的新兴领头羊，这一地位无疑是由芯片之王英特尔 (INTC) 占据的。随着 AMD 周二发布最新财报，这一头衔不再没有争议，尽管两者之间的绝对美元数字存在巨大差异。一个正在蓬勃发展，而另一个由于未解决的业务方向，部分或全部处于不和谐状态。周二，AMD 证明了它不会很快放松对半导体领头羊称号的追求。事实上，它可能会彻底改变定义，因为它在该领域产生的增长是前所未有的。是时候给AMD竖起大拇指了，而不是在一旁观望。</blockquote> Growth, Growth, Growth<blockquote>成长，成长，成长</blockquote> Much like the age-old adage for real estate of \"location, location, location\" to sell property, growth, growth, growth is the market's adage for share returns.<blockquote>就像房地产的古老格言“位置，位置，位置”来销售房产一样，增长，增长，增长是市场股票回报的格言。</blockquote> The market is simple when it comes to tech and anything to do with it: It pays for growth, not indecision. AMD is growing, Intel is indecisive. And not just decision-making indecisive, I'm talking business execution indecisive. AMD is proving it can produce monstrous growth, and Intel is proving incremental growth is all it can do.<blockquote>当涉及到技术和与之相关的任何事情时，市场很简单：它为增长买单，而不是犹豫不决。AMD在增长，英特尔犹豫不决。不仅仅是决策优柔寡断，我说的是业务执行优柔寡断。AMD正在证明它可以产生巨大的增长，英特尔正在证明增量增长是它所能做的。</blockquote> The chart is simple. These are two very different companies:<blockquote>图表很简单。这是两家截然不同的公司：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64f87e5b692256d2b0c4584ad37e8fdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart mine, data from AMD and Intel earnings reports (non-GAAP for Intel)<blockquote>图表矿山、AMD 和英特尔收益报告中的数据（英特尔非 GAAP）</blockquote> Both companies experienced a similar slowdown during the pandemic quarter of last year (Q2), but these two companies couldn't be any more different from there. While Intel struggled to find growth, especially in the data center division, AMD was stacking bills in all categories, including EPYC sales, except for a seasonal lull in semi-custom after a large gaming console launch.<blockquote>两家公司在去年大流行季度（Q2）都经历了类似的放缓，但这两家公司与那时的情况大相径庭。当英特尔努力寻找增长时，特别是在数据中心部门，AMD在所有类别中都堆积了账单，包括EPYC销售，除了大型游戏机推出后半定制的季节性平静。</blockquote> Since then, the story has been very dull for Intel, with flatlined or negative growth while AMD nearly doubled growth over the trough of the pandemic with its latest report.<blockquote>从那时起，英特尔的情况就非常沉闷，增长持平或负增长，而 AMD 的最新报告使疫情低谷时期的增长几乎翻了一番。</blockquote> A slow down to 46%-50% in Q3 from 100% in Q2 and even from 55% to 50% year-over-year is to be expected as the great gaming console launch of 2020 will not repeat at the same level. But, to still guide for near 50% growth with that tough comp is what, in part, is driving my bullishness.<blockquote>预计第三季度将从第二季度的100%放缓至46%-50%，甚至同比从55%放缓至50%，因为2020年的大型游戏机发布不会在同一水平上重复。但是，在竞争激烈的情况下，仍然引导近 50% 的增长，这在一定程度上是推动我看涨的原因。</blockquote> The Valuation Proves It<blockquote>估值证明了</blockquote> Now, of course, the market is in fact paying differently for both companies. The crucial difference is growth paves the way for better returns while stagnating growth paves the way for declines. The stock prices reflect as much:<blockquote>当然，现在市场实际上对两家公司的支付是不同的。关键的区别在于，增长为更好的回报铺平了道路，而增长停滞为下降铺平了道路。股票价格反映了以下几点：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dad2d35040d78da964efd16dcb1a6c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> But the valuations also keep pace with the market's expectations:<blockquote>但估值也符合市场预期：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd156a2787d8c3774149c77bf71063b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> (AMD with Q2 and updated guidance should push the forward P/E to ~38)<blockquote>（AMD 第二季度和更新的指引应该会将远期市盈率推高至约 38）</blockquote> AMD's growth is worth (now) around 38 times earnings. But if you put the stock chart and the PE chart over each other, one continues to rise while the other continues to grow into it (compressing). On the other hand, Intel continues to meander as its valuation remains sideways and revenue continues to struggle, resulting in a diminishing stock return.<blockquote>AMD 的增长（现在）价值约为市盈率的 38 倍。但是如果你把股票图表和PE图表放在一起，一个继续上升，而另一个继续成长（压缩）。另一方面，英特尔继续徘徊，其估值仍然横盘整理，收入继续陷入困境，导致股票回报率下降。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Intel bulls - you can say Intel has loads more cash flow and much higher revenue numbers (and it does), but the market isn't paying for that - clearly, as the stock price is stagnant over the last one-and-a-half years. The market is paying for growth. Period. Intel has very little to none, and AMD continues to prove it has it and more.<blockquote>英特尔看涨 - 你可以说英特尔拥有更多的现金流和更高的收入数字（确实如此），但市场并没有为此付出代价 - 显然，因为股价在过去一年半中停滞不前。市场正在为增长买单。周期。英特尔几乎没有，AMD继续证明它拥有它甚至更多。</blockquote> You can be a fanboy of either company, but what good is being a fanboy if you're not getting a return on your cheerleading?<blockquote>你可以成为任何一家公司的粉丝，但是如果你在啦啦队中得不到回报，做粉丝又有什么用呢？</blockquote> One can continue to keep their money in Intel and collect 8%, including dividends, over two years, or carefully invest it in growth, which AMD is providing. This doesn't mean I love AMD's products - its graphics division leaves a lot to be desired (true ray tracing, DLSS 2.0, etc.) - but I can't stand by and hope Intel figures it out while AMD puts up the numbers it has been.<blockquote>人们可以继续将资金留在英特尔，并在两年内收取 8%（包括股息），或者谨慎地将其投资于 AMD 正在提供的增长。这并不意味着我喜欢AMD的产品——它的图形部门还有很多不足之处（真正的光线跟踪、DLSS 2.0等）。）-但我不能袖手旁观，希望英特尔在AMD公布数字的时候解决这个问题。</blockquote> The Bellwether Title Up For Grabs<blockquote>领头羊头衔可供争夺</blockquote> The basis for AMD taking over the bellwether position is because Intel can no longer provide the barometer for what the industry is doing. The semiconductor industry isn't shrinking. It's growing. From 2020 to 2021,the logic semiconductor industry is expected to grow 17%&nbsp;and over 6% from 2021 to 2022. Intel doesn't see that, it's below it. AMD doesn't see that, it's above it.<blockquote>AMD接管领头羊位置的基础是因为英特尔已经无法为行业的所作所为提供晴雨表。半导体行业并没有萎缩。它在增长。2020年至2021年，逻辑半导体行业预计将增长17%，2021年至2022年将增长超过6%。英特尔没有看到这一点，它在它下面。AMD没有看到这一点，它在上面。</blockquote> I know which one is going to give me the heartbeat of the industry.<blockquote>我知道哪一个会给我这个行业的心跳。</blockquote> You tell me which one is going to produce returns over the next year to two years.<blockquote>你告诉我哪一个会在未来一到两年内产生回报。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Is The New Bellwether<blockquote>AMD是新的领头羊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Is The New Bellwether<blockquote>AMD是新的领头羊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-07-29 17:31\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>AMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to be.</li> <li>The revenue growth and valuations prove the market wants one thing: Growth.</li> <li>Intel has lost the bellwether title as it grows below the industry and AMD grows above it.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a41ea3a1a9c98364332ee70330427e8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">nantonov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>AMD 周二的收益报告让我对我的钱应该去哪里感到困惑。</li><li>收入增长和估值证明市场想要一件事：增长。</li><li>英特尔已经失去了领头羊的头衔，因为它的增长低于行业，而 AMD 的增长高于行业。</li></ul>nantonov/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> It's hard to deny AMD (AMD) isn't the new up-and-coming bellwether of logic semiconductors, a position undoubtedly claimed by the chip king Intel (INTC). With AMD's&nbsp;latest earnings report&nbsp;on Tuesday, the title is no longer uncontested, even with the dramatic difference in absolute dollar figures between the two. One is growing big time while the other has been in a perpetual state of discord, in part or in whole, due to unresolved business direction. On Tuesday, AMD proved it isn't relenting any time soon in its pursuit of taking the semiconductor bellwether title. In fact, it may change the definition altogether as the growth it's producing in this sector is unheard of. It's time I give AMD the thumbs up and not just watch on the sidelines.<blockquote>很难否认 AMD (AMD) 并不是逻辑半导体领域的新兴领头羊，这一地位无疑是由芯片之王英特尔 (INTC) 占据的。随着 AMD 周二发布最新财报，这一头衔不再没有争议，尽管两者之间的绝对美元数字存在巨大差异。一个正在蓬勃发展，而另一个由于未解决的业务方向，部分或全部处于不和谐状态。周二，AMD 证明了它不会很快放松对半导体领头羊称号的追求。事实上，它可能会彻底改变定义，因为它在该领域产生的增长是前所未有的。是时候给AMD竖起大拇指了，而不是在一旁观望。</blockquote> Growth, Growth, Growth<blockquote>成长，成长，成长</blockquote> Much like the age-old adage for real estate of \"location, location, location\" to sell property, growth, growth, growth is the market's adage for share returns.<blockquote>就像房地产的古老格言“位置，位置，位置”来销售房产一样，增长，增长，增长是市场股票回报的格言。</blockquote> The market is simple when it comes to tech and anything to do with it: It pays for growth, not indecision. AMD is growing, Intel is indecisive. And not just decision-making indecisive, I'm talking business execution indecisive. AMD is proving it can produce monstrous growth, and Intel is proving incremental growth is all it can do.<blockquote>当涉及到技术和与之相关的任何事情时，市场很简单：它为增长买单，而不是犹豫不决。AMD在增长，英特尔犹豫不决。不仅仅是决策优柔寡断，我说的是业务执行优柔寡断。AMD正在证明它可以产生巨大的增长，英特尔正在证明增量增长是它所能做的。</blockquote> The chart is simple. These are two very different companies:<blockquote>图表很简单。这是两家截然不同的公司：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64f87e5b692256d2b0c4584ad37e8fdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart mine, data from AMD and Intel earnings reports (non-GAAP for Intel)<blockquote>图表矿山、AMD 和英特尔收益报告中的数据（英特尔非 GAAP）</blockquote> Both companies experienced a similar slowdown during the pandemic quarter of last year (Q2), but these two companies couldn't be any more different from there. While Intel struggled to find growth, especially in the data center division, AMD was stacking bills in all categories, including EPYC sales, except for a seasonal lull in semi-custom after a large gaming console launch.<blockquote>两家公司在去年大流行季度（Q2）都经历了类似的放缓，但这两家公司与那时的情况大相径庭。当英特尔努力寻找增长时，特别是在数据中心部门，AMD在所有类别中都堆积了账单，包括EPYC销售，除了大型游戏机推出后半定制的季节性平静。</blockquote> Since then, the story has been very dull for Intel, with flatlined or negative growth while AMD nearly doubled growth over the trough of the pandemic with its latest report.<blockquote>从那时起，英特尔的情况就非常沉闷，增长持平或负增长，而 AMD 的最新报告使疫情低谷时期的增长几乎翻了一番。</blockquote> A slow down to 46%-50% in Q3 from 100% in Q2 and even from 55% to 50% year-over-year is to be expected as the great gaming console launch of 2020 will not repeat at the same level. But, to still guide for near 50% growth with that tough comp is what, in part, is driving my bullishness.<blockquote>预计第三季度将从第二季度的100%放缓至46%-50%，甚至同比从55%放缓至50%，因为2020年的大型游戏机发布不会在同一水平上重复。但是，在竞争激烈的情况下，仍然引导近 50% 的增长，这在一定程度上是推动我看涨的原因。</blockquote> The Valuation Proves It<blockquote>估值证明了</blockquote> Now, of course, the market is in fact paying differently for both companies. The crucial difference is growth paves the way for better returns while stagnating growth paves the way for declines. The stock prices reflect as much:<blockquote>当然，现在市场实际上对两家公司的支付是不同的。关键的区别在于，增长为更好的回报铺平了道路，而增长停滞为下降铺平了道路。股票价格反映了以下几点：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dad2d35040d78da964efd16dcb1a6c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> But the valuations also keep pace with the market's expectations:<blockquote>但估值也符合市场预期：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd156a2787d8c3774149c77bf71063b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> (AMD with Q2 and updated guidance should push the forward P/E to ~38)<blockquote>（AMD 第二季度和更新的指引应该会将远期市盈率推高至约 38）</blockquote> AMD's growth is worth (now) around 38 times earnings. But if you put the stock chart and the PE chart over each other, one continues to rise while the other continues to grow into it (compressing). On the other hand, Intel continues to meander as its valuation remains sideways and revenue continues to struggle, resulting in a diminishing stock return.<blockquote>AMD 的增长（现在）价值约为市盈率的 38 倍。但是如果你把股票图表和PE图表放在一起，一个继续上升，而另一个继续成长（压缩）。另一方面，英特尔继续徘徊，其估值仍然横盘整理，收入继续陷入困境，导致股票回报率下降。</blockquote> The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> Intel bulls - you can say Intel has loads more cash flow and much higher revenue numbers (and it does), but the market isn't paying for that - clearly, as the stock price is stagnant over the last one-and-a-half years. The market is paying for growth. Period. Intel has very little to none, and AMD continues to prove it has it and more.<blockquote>英特尔看涨 - 你可以说英特尔拥有更多的现金流和更高的收入数字（确实如此），但市场并没有为此付出代价 - 显然，因为股价在过去一年半中停滞不前。市场正在为增长买单。周期。英特尔几乎没有，AMD继续证明它拥有它甚至更多。</blockquote> You can be a fanboy of either company, but what good is being a fanboy if you're not getting a return on your cheerleading?<blockquote>你可以成为任何一家公司的粉丝，但是如果你在啦啦队中得不到回报，做粉丝又有什么用呢？</blockquote> One can continue to keep their money in Intel and collect 8%, including dividends, over two years, or carefully invest it in growth, which AMD is providing. This doesn't mean I love AMD's products - its graphics division leaves a lot to be desired (true ray tracing, DLSS 2.0, etc.) - but I can't stand by and hope Intel figures it out while AMD puts up the numbers it has been.<blockquote>人们可以继续将资金留在英特尔，并在两年内收取 8%（包括股息），或者谨慎地将其投资于 AMD 正在提供的增长。这并不意味着我喜欢AMD的产品——它的图形部门还有很多不足之处（真正的光线跟踪、DLSS 2.0等）。）-但我不能袖手旁观，希望英特尔在AMD公布数字的时候解决这个问题。</blockquote> The Bellwether Title Up For Grabs<blockquote>领头羊头衔可供争夺</blockquote> The basis for AMD taking over the bellwether position is because Intel can no longer provide the barometer for what the industry is doing. The semiconductor industry isn't shrinking. It's growing. From 2020 to 2021,the logic semiconductor industry is expected to grow 17%&nbsp;and over 6% from 2021 to 2022. Intel doesn't see that, it's below it. AMD doesn't see that, it's above it.<blockquote>AMD接管领头羊位置的基础是因为英特尔已经无法为行业的所作所为提供晴雨表。半导体行业并没有萎缩。它在增长。2020年至2021年，逻辑半导体行业预计将增长17%，2021年至2022年将增长超过6%。英特尔没有看到这一点，它在它下面。AMD没有看到这一点，它在上面。</blockquote> I know which one is going to give me the heartbeat of the industry.<blockquote>我知道哪一个会给我这个行业的心跳。</blockquote> You tell me which one is going to produce returns over the next year to two years.<blockquote>你告诉我哪一个会在未来一到两年内产生回报。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442043-amd-is-the-new-bellwether\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442043-amd-is-the-new-bellwether","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131779285","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to be.\nThe revenue growth and valuations prove the market wants one thing: Growth.\nIntel has lost the bellwether title as it grows below the industry and AMD grows above it.\n\nnantonov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIt's hard to deny AMD (AMD) isn't the new up-and-coming bellwether of logic semiconductors, a position undoubtedly claimed by the chip king Intel (INTC). With AMD's latest earnings report on Tuesday, the title is no longer uncontested, even with the dramatic difference in absolute dollar figures between the two. One is growing big time while the other has been in a perpetual state of discord, in part or in whole, due to unresolved business direction. On Tuesday, AMD proved it isn't relenting any time soon in its pursuit of taking the semiconductor bellwether title. In fact, it may change the definition altogether as the growth it's producing in this sector is unheard of. It's time I give AMD the thumbs up and not just watch on the sidelines.\nGrowth, Growth, Growth\nMuch like the age-old adage for real estate of \"location, location, location\" to sell property, growth, growth, growth is the market's adage for share returns.\nThe market is simple when it comes to tech and anything to do with it: It pays for growth, not indecision. AMD is growing, Intel is indecisive. And not just decision-making indecisive, I'm talking business execution indecisive. AMD is proving it can produce monstrous growth, and Intel is proving incremental growth is all it can do.\nThe chart is simple. These are two very different companies:\nChart mine, data from AMD and Intel earnings reports (non-GAAP for Intel)\nBoth companies experienced a similar slowdown during the pandemic quarter of last year (Q2), but these two companies couldn't be any more different from there. While Intel struggled to find growth, especially in the data center division, AMD was stacking bills in all categories, including EPYC sales, except for a seasonal lull in semi-custom after a large gaming console launch.\nSince then, the story has been very dull for Intel, with flatlined or negative growth while AMD nearly doubled growth over the trough of the pandemic with its latest report.\nA slow down to 46%-50% in Q3 from 100% in Q2 and even from 55% to 50% year-over-year is to be expected as the great gaming console launch of 2020 will not repeat at the same level. But, to still guide for near 50% growth with that tough comp is what, in part, is driving my bullishness.\nThe Valuation Proves It\nNow, of course, the market is in fact paying differently for both companies. The crucial difference is growth paves the way for better returns while stagnating growth paves the way for declines. The stock prices reflect as much:\nData by YCharts\nBut the valuations also keep pace with the market's expectations:\nData by YCharts\n(AMD with Q2 and updated guidance should push the forward P/E to ~38)\nAMD's growth is worth (now) around 38 times earnings. But if you put the stock chart and the PE chart over each other, one continues to rise while the other continues to grow into it (compressing). On the other hand, Intel continues to meander as its valuation remains sideways and revenue continues to struggle, resulting in a diminishing stock return.\nThe Bottom Line\nIntel bulls - you can say Intel has loads more cash flow and much higher revenue numbers (and it does), but the market isn't paying for that - clearly, as the stock price is stagnant over the last one-and-a-half years. The market is paying for growth. Period. Intel has very little to none, and AMD continues to prove it has it and more.\nYou can be a fanboy of either company, but what good is being a fanboy if you're not getting a return on your cheerleading?\nOne can continue to keep their money in Intel and collect 8%, including dividends, over two years, or carefully invest it in growth, which AMD is providing. This doesn't mean I love AMD's products - its graphics division leaves a lot to be desired (true ray tracing, DLSS 2.0, etc.) - but I can't stand by and hope Intel figures it out while AMD puts up the numbers it has been.\nThe Bellwether Title Up For Grabs\nThe basis for AMD taking over the bellwether position is because Intel can no longer provide the barometer for what the industry is doing. The semiconductor industry isn't shrinking. It's growing. From 2020 to 2021,the logic semiconductor industry is expected to grow 17% and over 6% from 2021 to 2022. Intel doesn't see that, it's below it. AMD doesn't see that, it's above it.\nI know which one is going to give me the heartbeat of the industry.\nYou tell me which one is going to produce returns over the next year to two years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2170,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/808351719"}