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2021-07-29

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Tilray: Same Tired Story<blockquote>蒂尔雷：同样的疲惫故事</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":808163293,"tweetId":"808163293","gmtCreate":1627565605212,"gmtModify":1631890986365,"author":{"id":3563864010203724,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorId":3563864010203724,"authorIdStr":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>anyone invested?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>anyone invested?</body></html>","text":"anyone invested?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808163293","repostId":1147830889,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147830889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627564912,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147830889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 21:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tilray: Same Tired Story<blockquote>蒂尔雷：同样的疲惫故事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147830889","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue fro","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter.</li> <li>The Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to lockdowns in Canada and Germany.</li> <li>The stock trades at substantial premium P/S multiple while risks exist on a U.S. acquisition plan.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1993e3b20ddec8572a2197dc22222ad9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1126\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">dvulikaia/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Tilray 报告称，由于没有比较该季度合并的预计收入，第四季度的收入增长具有误导性。</li><li>由于加拿大和德国的封锁，这家加拿大大麻公司仍在努力发展。</li><li>该股的市盈率大幅溢价，而美国收购计划存在风险。</li></ul>dvulikaia/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Before the market open,Tilray(TLRY)&nbsp;reported FQ4 results&nbsp;to provide the first quarterly results of the combined Aphria and Tilray operations. Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading.<blockquote>在市场开盘前，蒂尔雷(TLRY) 报告了第四季度业绩，提供了 Aphria 和 Tilray 合并业务的第一季度业绩。不幸的是，加拿大大麻公司未能提供该组合的备考数字。在早盘上涨 20% 后，我的投资论点仍然看跌该股。</blockquote> Confusing Quarter<blockquote>令人困惑的季度</blockquote> The new Tilray reported May quarterly numbers that only included four weeks of results from the old Tilray. Revenues were reported as reaching $142.2 million for 25% growth from last FQ4, but the numbers are absolutely worthless without the pro-forma numbers. Last FQ4, the new Tilray reported revenue of $159.8 million without even including revenues from SweetWater which now accounts for over $15 million of net revenues.<blockquote>新的Tilray报告了5月份的季度数据，其中只包括旧Tilray四周的结果。据报道，收入达到 1.422 亿美元，较上一季度增长 25%，但如果没有备考数据，这些数字绝对毫无价值。去年第四季度，新 Tilray 报告的收入为 1.598 亿美元，这还不包括来自 SweetWater 的收入，该收入目前占净收入超过 1500 万美元。</blockquote> The combined companies reported prior-quarter revenue of $167.3 million. Those revenues were down from $180.2 million in FQ2 so FQ4 revenues of $142.2 million aren't impressive on first look without parsing out the additional 9 weeks of revenues from Tilray. Unless Tilray had over $30 million in revenue from the unreported period, the combined company wouldn't have generated organic growth in the quarter.<blockquote>合并后的公司公布上季度收入为 1.673 亿美元。这些收入低于第二季度的 1.802 亿美元，因此如果不分析 Tilray 额外 9 周的收入，第四季度的 1.422 亿美元收入乍一看并不令人印象深刻。除非 Tilray 在未报告期间的收入超过 3000 万美元，否则合并后的公司本季度不会实现有机增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c0dd681f62e6505699e94e0c8ca9517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21 演示文稿</blockquote> Tilray continues to face lockdown issues in both Canada and Europe. Cannabis and wellness net revenues both peaked in the November quarter as lockdowns started restricting sales in their key cannabis markets.<blockquote>Tilray 在加拿大和欧洲继续面临封锁问题。由于封锁开始限制其主要大麻市场的销售，大麻和健康净收入在 11 月份季度均达到峰值。</blockquote> What the market does know is that beverage alcohol net revenues reached $15.9 million in the quarter, up from $11.9 million in the prior quarter. The distribution revenue from CC Pharma in Germany dipped again to $66.8 million from $70.3 million in the prior quarter.<blockquote>市场所知道的是，本季度饮料酒精净收入达到 1590 万美元，高于上一季度的 1190 万美元。CC Pharma 在德国的分销收入再次从上一季度的 7030 万美元降至 6680 万美元。</blockquote> Those revenues were both from the Aphria side where the new Tilray reported full revenue amounts for the period. The Wellness revenue came from the old Tilray and was $5.8 million in the May quarter while revenues were $16.6 million in the pro-forma February quarter results above. These revenues appeared to slightly grow from the prior quarter, but the May quarter numbers aren't fully known.<blockquote>这些收入均来自 Aphria 方面，new Tilray 报告了该期间的全部收入金额。健康收入来自old Tilray，5月份季度为580万美元，而上述2月份季度预计业绩中的收入为1660万美元。这些收入似乎比上一季度略有增长，但五月份季度的数据尚不完全清楚。</blockquote> The biggest question is the combined cannabis revenues where the business overlapped with both prior companies. The new Tilray reported May quarterly net cannabis revenue of $53.7 million. The combined company reported February net cannabis revenues of $68.5 million.<blockquote>最大的问题是合并后的大麻收入，该业务与之前的两家公司重叠。new Tilray报告称，5月份季度大麻净收入为5370万美元。合并后的公司报告称，2月份大麻净收入为6850万美元。</blockquote> The standalone Aphria reported February net cannabis revenue of $41.2 million (C$51. million) leaving just $27.3 million net revenues from Tilray. The amount would suggest Tilray only contributed ~$9 million in monthly net cannabis revenues or somewhere around $18 million to $20 million for the missing revenues from March and April.<blockquote>独立的Aphria报告称，2月份大麻净收入为4120万美元（51加元）。百万），Tilray的净收入仅为2730万美元。这一数额表明，Tilray 每月仅贡献了约 900 万美元的大麻净收入，或者 3 月和 4 月的收入损失约为 1800 万至 2000 万美元。</blockquote> The big unknown are the full quarter revenues for Tilray, but the numbers would support the new company reporting relatively flat quarterly revenues when adding in the missing Tilray cannabis and wellness revenues.<blockquote>最大的未知数是 Tilray 的完整季度收入，但当加上缺失的 Tilray 大麻和健康收入时，这些数字将支持这家新公司报告相对持平的季度收入。</blockquote> While the company talks about $35 million in synergies, the adjusted EBITDA for FQ4 was just $12.3 million. The amount was up from the prior quarter of $10.2 million, but the numbers don't include a full quarter of the Tilray EBITDA losses which hit $6.3 million in the February quarter.<blockquote>虽然该公司谈论的协同效应约为 3500 万美元，但第四季度调整后的 EBITDA 仅为 1230 万美元。该金额高于上一季度的 1020 万美元，但这些数字不包括 Tilray EBITDA 整个季度的亏损，该亏损在 2 月份达到 630 万美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/301bd9351f458a2c2868e9816d0c90f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21 演示文稿</blockquote> The inability to fully compare the quarterly results makes this quarterly report incomplete. The new Tilray is targeting $80 million in cost synergies which in theory would build upon the above EBITDA profits of the prior 12-month period.<blockquote>无法充分比较季度业绩，使得本季度报告不完整。新的 Tilray 的目标是实现 8000 万美元的成本协同效应，理论上，这将建立在前 12 个月期间上述 EBITDA 利润的基础上。</blockquote> Good Story, Not Great Value<blockquote>故事不错，价值不高</blockquote> While the company tells a good story, Tilray doesn't have much in the way of growth. The company still has the massive opportunity in Europe where the market size is forecast at $3.9 billion in 2025, but the company doesn't have the growth to support any expected major growth driver as the market is highly competitive.<blockquote>虽然该公司讲述了一个好故事，但 Tilray 并没有太多发展道路。该公司在欧洲仍然拥有巨大的机会，预计 2025 年欧洲市场规模将达到 39 亿美元，但由于市场竞争激烈，该公司没有足够的增长来支持任何预期的主要增长动力。</blockquote> Tilray lists a market share leader position in Canada based on TTM sales, but a lot of deals in the sector will make this category more competitive going forward.HEXO(HEXO) recently&nbsp;announced a deal&nbsp;for Redecan to make the company the claimed leader in the Canadian recreational cannabis market share. Redecan alone generated&nbsp;Q1 revenues&nbsp;of C$24.7 million.<blockquote>根据 TTM 销售额，Tilray 在加拿大占据市场份额领先地位，但该行业的大量交易将使该类别未来更具竞争力。六角（HEXO）最近宣布了一项收购Redecan的交易，使该公司成为加拿大娱乐大麻市场份额的领导者。仅 Redecan 第一季度就创造了 2470 万加元的收入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3934fcca920ff31b8421b8a8322afaf0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21 演示文稿</blockquote> Tilray now has a market cap of $7 billion following the closure of theAphriadeal. The issue with the stock valuation is the $66 million in quarterly distribution revenue has limited value. The total cannabis/beverages/wellness revenue is reduced to only $100 million to $110 million per quarter.<blockquote>theAphriadeal 关闭后，Tilray 的市值目前为 70 亿美元。股票估值的问题是6600万美元的季度分销收入价值有限。大麻/饮料/健康总收入减少到每季度仅1亿至1.1亿美元。</blockquote> The company only has $400+ million of revenues in these valuable categories. The stock trades at ~17x these valuable cannabis related revenues, yet Tilray has reported no organic growth in several quarters.<blockquote>该公司在这些有价值的类别中只有4亿多美元的收入。该股的交易价格约为这些宝贵的大麻相关收入的 17 倍，但 Tilray 在几个季度没有报告有机增长。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> The key investor takeaway is that Tilray still hasn't achieved any growth in over a year. The company has a forecast for large revenue by FY24, but most of the gains will come from acquisitions in the U.S. A better investment is to target the multi-state operators in the U.S. targeted by Tilray, not the stock in the Canadian cannabis company looking to make major deals likely at premium valuations.<blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，Tilray 一年多来仍未实现任何增长。该公司预计到 2024 财年将获得大量收入，但大部分收益将来自美国的收购。更好的投资是瞄准 Tilray 瞄准的美国多州运营商，而不是这家加拿大大麻公司希望以溢价进行重大交易的股票。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tilray: Same Tired Story<blockquote>蒂尔雷：同样的疲惫故事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTilray: Same Tired Story<blockquote>蒂尔雷：同样的疲惫故事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-07-29 21:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Tilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter.</li> <li>The Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to lockdowns in Canada and Germany.</li> <li>The stock trades at substantial premium P/S multiple while risks exist on a U.S. acquisition plan.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1993e3b20ddec8572a2197dc22222ad9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1126\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">dvulikaia/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Tilray 报告称，由于没有比较该季度合并的预计收入，第四季度的收入增长具有误导性。</li><li>由于加拿大和德国的封锁，这家加拿大大麻公司仍在努力发展。</li><li>该股的市盈率大幅溢价，而美国收购计划存在风险。</li></ul>dvulikaia/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Before the market open,Tilray(TLRY)&nbsp;reported FQ4 results&nbsp;to provide the first quarterly results of the combined Aphria and Tilray operations. Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading.<blockquote>在市场开盘前，蒂尔雷(TLRY) 报告了第四季度业绩，提供了 Aphria 和 Tilray 合并业务的第一季度业绩。不幸的是，加拿大大麻公司未能提供该组合的备考数字。在早盘上涨 20% 后，我的投资论点仍然看跌该股。</blockquote> Confusing Quarter<blockquote>令人困惑的季度</blockquote> The new Tilray reported May quarterly numbers that only included four weeks of results from the old Tilray. Revenues were reported as reaching $142.2 million for 25% growth from last FQ4, but the numbers are absolutely worthless without the pro-forma numbers. Last FQ4, the new Tilray reported revenue of $159.8 million without even including revenues from SweetWater which now accounts for over $15 million of net revenues.<blockquote>新的Tilray报告了5月份的季度数据，其中只包括旧Tilray四周的结果。据报道，收入达到 1.422 亿美元，较上一季度增长 25%，但如果没有备考数据，这些数字绝对毫无价值。去年第四季度，新 Tilray 报告的收入为 1.598 亿美元，这还不包括来自 SweetWater 的收入，该收入目前占净收入超过 1500 万美元。</blockquote> The combined companies reported prior-quarter revenue of $167.3 million. Those revenues were down from $180.2 million in FQ2 so FQ4 revenues of $142.2 million aren't impressive on first look without parsing out the additional 9 weeks of revenues from Tilray. Unless Tilray had over $30 million in revenue from the unreported period, the combined company wouldn't have generated organic growth in the quarter.<blockquote>合并后的公司公布上季度收入为 1.673 亿美元。这些收入低于第二季度的 1.802 亿美元，因此如果不分析 Tilray 额外 9 周的收入，第四季度的 1.422 亿美元收入乍一看并不令人印象深刻。除非 Tilray 在未报告期间的收入超过 3000 万美元，否则合并后的公司本季度不会实现有机增长。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c0dd681f62e6505699e94e0c8ca9517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21 演示文稿</blockquote> Tilray continues to face lockdown issues in both Canada and Europe. Cannabis and wellness net revenues both peaked in the November quarter as lockdowns started restricting sales in their key cannabis markets.<blockquote>Tilray 在加拿大和欧洲继续面临封锁问题。由于封锁开始限制其主要大麻市场的销售，大麻和健康净收入在 11 月份季度均达到峰值。</blockquote> What the market does know is that beverage alcohol net revenues reached $15.9 million in the quarter, up from $11.9 million in the prior quarter. The distribution revenue from CC Pharma in Germany dipped again to $66.8 million from $70.3 million in the prior quarter.<blockquote>市场所知道的是，本季度饮料酒精净收入达到 1590 万美元，高于上一季度的 1190 万美元。CC Pharma 在德国的分销收入再次从上一季度的 7030 万美元降至 6680 万美元。</blockquote> Those revenues were both from the Aphria side where the new Tilray reported full revenue amounts for the period. The Wellness revenue came from the old Tilray and was $5.8 million in the May quarter while revenues were $16.6 million in the pro-forma February quarter results above. These revenues appeared to slightly grow from the prior quarter, but the May quarter numbers aren't fully known.<blockquote>这些收入均来自 Aphria 方面，new Tilray 报告了该期间的全部收入金额。健康收入来自old Tilray，5月份季度为580万美元，而上述2月份季度预计业绩中的收入为1660万美元。这些收入似乎比上一季度略有增长，但五月份季度的数据尚不完全清楚。</blockquote> The biggest question is the combined cannabis revenues where the business overlapped with both prior companies. The new Tilray reported May quarterly net cannabis revenue of $53.7 million. The combined company reported February net cannabis revenues of $68.5 million.<blockquote>最大的问题是合并后的大麻收入，该业务与之前的两家公司重叠。new Tilray报告称，5月份季度大麻净收入为5370万美元。合并后的公司报告称，2月份大麻净收入为6850万美元。</blockquote> The standalone Aphria reported February net cannabis revenue of $41.2 million (C$51. million) leaving just $27.3 million net revenues from Tilray. The amount would suggest Tilray only contributed ~$9 million in monthly net cannabis revenues or somewhere around $18 million to $20 million for the missing revenues from March and April.<blockquote>独立的Aphria报告称，2月份大麻净收入为4120万美元（51加元）。百万），Tilray的净收入仅为2730万美元。这一数额表明，Tilray 每月仅贡献了约 900 万美元的大麻净收入，或者 3 月和 4 月的收入损失约为 1800 万至 2000 万美元。</blockquote> The big unknown are the full quarter revenues for Tilray, but the numbers would support the new company reporting relatively flat quarterly revenues when adding in the missing Tilray cannabis and wellness revenues.<blockquote>最大的未知数是 Tilray 的完整季度收入，但当加上缺失的 Tilray 大麻和健康收入时，这些数字将支持这家新公司报告相对持平的季度收入。</blockquote> While the company talks about $35 million in synergies, the adjusted EBITDA for FQ4 was just $12.3 million. The amount was up from the prior quarter of $10.2 million, but the numbers don't include a full quarter of the Tilray EBITDA losses which hit $6.3 million in the February quarter.<blockquote>虽然该公司谈论的协同效应约为 3500 万美元，但第四季度调整后的 EBITDA 仅为 1230 万美元。该金额高于上一季度的 1020 万美元，但这些数字不包括 Tilray EBITDA 整个季度的亏损，该亏损在 2 月份达到 630 万美元。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/301bd9351f458a2c2868e9816d0c90f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21 演示文稿</blockquote> The inability to fully compare the quarterly results makes this quarterly report incomplete. The new Tilray is targeting $80 million in cost synergies which in theory would build upon the above EBITDA profits of the prior 12-month period.<blockquote>无法充分比较季度业绩，使得本季度报告不完整。新的 Tilray 的目标是实现 8000 万美元的成本协同效应，理论上，这将建立在前 12 个月期间上述 EBITDA 利润的基础上。</blockquote> Good Story, Not Great Value<blockquote>故事不错，价值不高</blockquote> While the company tells a good story, Tilray doesn't have much in the way of growth. The company still has the massive opportunity in Europe where the market size is forecast at $3.9 billion in 2025, but the company doesn't have the growth to support any expected major growth driver as the market is highly competitive.<blockquote>虽然该公司讲述了一个好故事，但 Tilray 并没有太多发展道路。该公司在欧洲仍然拥有巨大的机会，预计 2025 年欧洲市场规模将达到 39 亿美元，但由于市场竞争激烈，该公司没有足够的增长来支持任何预期的主要增长动力。</blockquote> Tilray lists a market share leader position in Canada based on TTM sales, but a lot of deals in the sector will make this category more competitive going forward.HEXO(HEXO) recently&nbsp;announced a deal&nbsp;for Redecan to make the company the claimed leader in the Canadian recreational cannabis market share. Redecan alone generated&nbsp;Q1 revenues&nbsp;of C$24.7 million.<blockquote>根据 TTM 销售额，Tilray 在加拿大占据市场份额领先地位，但该行业的大量交易将使该类别未来更具竞争力。六角（HEXO）最近宣布了一项收购Redecan的交易，使该公司成为加拿大娱乐大麻市场份额的领导者。仅 Redecan 第一季度就创造了 2470 万加元的收入。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3934fcca920ff31b8421b8a8322afaf0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Tilray FQ4'21 演示文稿</blockquote> Tilray now has a market cap of $7 billion following the closure of theAphriadeal. The issue with the stock valuation is the $66 million in quarterly distribution revenue has limited value. The total cannabis/beverages/wellness revenue is reduced to only $100 million to $110 million per quarter.<blockquote>theAphriadeal 关闭后，Tilray 的市值目前为 70 亿美元。股票估值的问题是6600万美元的季度分销收入价值有限。大麻/饮料/健康总收入减少到每季度仅1亿至1.1亿美元。</blockquote> The company only has $400+ million of revenues in these valuable categories. The stock trades at ~17x these valuable cannabis related revenues, yet Tilray has reported no organic growth in several quarters.<blockquote>该公司在这些有价值的类别中只有4亿多美元的收入。该股的交易价格约为这些宝贵的大麻相关收入的 17 倍，但 Tilray 在几个季度没有报告有机增长。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> The key investor takeaway is that Tilray still hasn't achieved any growth in over a year. The company has a forecast for large revenue by FY24, but most of the gains will come from acquisitions in the U.S. A better investment is to target the multi-state operators in the U.S. targeted by Tilray, not the stock in the Canadian cannabis company looking to make major deals likely at premium valuations.<blockquote>投资者的主要收获是，Tilray 一年多来仍未实现任何增长。该公司预计到 2024 财年将获得大量收入，但大部分收益将来自美国的收购。更好的投资是瞄准 Tilray 瞄准的美国多州运营商，而不是这家加拿大大麻公司希望以溢价进行重大交易的股票。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442342-tilray-same-tired-story\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442342-tilray-same-tired-story","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147830889","content_text":"Summary\n\nTilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter.\nThe Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to lockdowns in Canada and Germany.\nThe stock trades at substantial premium P/S multiple while risks exist on a U.S. acquisition plan.\n\ndvulikaia/iStock via Getty Images\nBefore the market open,Tilray(TLRY) reported FQ4 results to provide the first quarterly results of the combined Aphria and Tilray operations. Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading.\nConfusing Quarter\nThe new Tilray reported May quarterly numbers that only included four weeks of results from the old Tilray. Revenues were reported as reaching $142.2 million for 25% growth from last FQ4, but the numbers are absolutely worthless without the pro-forma numbers. Last FQ4, the new Tilray reported revenue of $159.8 million without even including revenues from SweetWater which now accounts for over $15 million of net revenues.\nThe combined companies reported prior-quarter revenue of $167.3 million. Those revenues were down from $180.2 million in FQ2 so FQ4 revenues of $142.2 million aren't impressive on first look without parsing out the additional 9 weeks of revenues from Tilray. Unless Tilray had over $30 million in revenue from the unreported period, the combined company wouldn't have generated organic growth in the quarter.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nTilray continues to face lockdown issues in both Canada and Europe. Cannabis and wellness net revenues both peaked in the November quarter as lockdowns started restricting sales in their key cannabis markets.\nWhat the market does know is that beverage alcohol net revenues reached $15.9 million in the quarter, up from $11.9 million in the prior quarter. The distribution revenue from CC Pharma in Germany dipped again to $66.8 million from $70.3 million in the prior quarter.\nThose revenues were both from the Aphria side where the new Tilray reported full revenue amounts for the period. The Wellness revenue came from the old Tilray and was $5.8 million in the May quarter while revenues were $16.6 million in the pro-forma February quarter results above. These revenues appeared to slightly grow from the prior quarter, but the May quarter numbers aren't fully known.\nThe biggest question is the combined cannabis revenues where the business overlapped with both prior companies. The new Tilray reported May quarterly net cannabis revenue of $53.7 million. The combined company reported February net cannabis revenues of $68.5 million.\nThe standalone Aphria reported February net cannabis revenue of $41.2 million (C$51. million) leaving just $27.3 million net revenues from Tilray. The amount would suggest Tilray only contributed ~$9 million in monthly net cannabis revenues or somewhere around $18 million to $20 million for the missing revenues from March and April.\nThe big unknown are the full quarter revenues for Tilray, but the numbers would support the new company reporting relatively flat quarterly revenues when adding in the missing Tilray cannabis and wellness revenues.\nWhile the company talks about $35 million in synergies, the adjusted EBITDA for FQ4 was just $12.3 million. The amount was up from the prior quarter of $10.2 million, but the numbers don't include a full quarter of the Tilray EBITDA losses which hit $6.3 million in the February quarter.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nThe inability to fully compare the quarterly results makes this quarterly report incomplete. The new Tilray is targeting $80 million in cost synergies which in theory would build upon the above EBITDA profits of the prior 12-month period.\nGood Story, Not Great Value\nWhile the company tells a good story, Tilray doesn't have much in the way of growth. The company still has the massive opportunity in Europe where the market size is forecast at $3.9 billion in 2025, but the company doesn't have the growth to support any expected major growth driver as the market is highly competitive.\nTilray lists a market share leader position in Canada based on TTM sales, but a lot of deals in the sector will make this category more competitive going forward.HEXO(HEXO) recently announced a deal for Redecan to make the company the claimed leader in the Canadian recreational cannabis market share. Redecan alone generated Q1 revenues of C$24.7 million.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nTilray now has a market cap of $7 billion following the closure of theAphriadeal. The issue with the stock valuation is the $66 million in quarterly distribution revenue has limited value. The total cannabis/beverages/wellness revenue is reduced to only $100 million to $110 million per quarter.\nThe company only has $400+ million of revenues in these valuable categories. The stock trades at ~17x these valuable cannabis related revenues, yet Tilray has reported no organic growth in several quarters.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that Tilray still hasn't achieved any growth in over a year. The company has a forecast for large revenue by FY24, but most of the gains will come from acquisitions in the U.S. A better investment is to target the multi-state operators in the U.S. targeted by Tilray, not the stock in the Canadian cannabis company looking to make major deals likely at premium valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLRY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3505,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/808163293"}