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2021-08-04

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Is Taiwan Semiconductor Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? What To Consider<blockquote>台积电股票是好的长期投资吗？需要考虑什么</blockquote>

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What To Consider<blockquote>台积电股票是好的长期投资吗？需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136485652","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTSM offers exposure to the growing semiconductor industry in a diversified way, as it will ","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>TSM offers exposure to the growing semiconductor industry in a diversified way, as it will benefit from growth at NVIDIA, Apple, and many more.</li> <li>The company's business model has some disadvantages as well, mainly its relatively high capital requirements that limit its FCF conversion rate.</li> <li>TSM is trading above its longer-term valuation range, but shares could still deliver attractive returns in the long run.</li> </ul> Article Thesis<blockquote><ul><li>TSM 以多元化的方式接触不断增长的半导体行业，因为它将受益于 NVIDIA、苹果等公司的增长。</li><li>该公司的商业模式也有一些缺点，主要是其相对较高的资本要求限制了其自由现金流转换率。</li><li>TSM 的交易价格高于其长期估值范围，但从长远来看，其股票仍可提供有吸引力的回报。</li></ul>文章论文</blockquote> The semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth in recent years, and the long-term outlook remains strong as well. Chips are integral for our way of life and for our economy, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), as one of the largest manufacturers in the space, is poised to benefit from long-term growth trends. Investors should, apart from the growth prospects, also consider TSM's valuation and the risks for the business. Overall, TSM still seems like a company that could deliver attractive returns in the long run.<blockquote>半导体行业近年来经历了快速增长，长期前景也依然强劲。芯片是我们生活方式和经济不可或缺的一部分，台积电有限公司（TSM）作为该领域最大的制造商之一，有望从长期增长趋势中受益。除了增长前景之外，投资者还应该考虑台积电的估值和业务风险。总体而言，从长远来看，TSM 似乎仍然是一家能够提供有吸引力回报的公司。</blockquote> Taiwan Semiconductor As A Play On Global Semiconductor Demand Growth<blockquote>台积电推动全球半导体需求增长</blockquote> Over the last couple of decades, the global semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth, as chips have become integral for almost everything we do, from work to our personal communication, and even for the way we spend our free time. These trends -- digitalization &amp; technification -- are still in play, and it seems highly unlikely that we will be using fewer technical gadgets and products in a decade or two. In fact, it seems, to me, pretty much certain that our chip usage will grow even more, due to megatrends such as the internet of things, smart products, self-driving cars, wearable tech, and so on. Even trends such as working from home will lead to fewer meetings that will be conducted in-person, which will, in turn, lead to higher demand for at-home technical equipment and processing power in server farms that handle video conferences. New and emerging technologies, such as the&nbsp;Metaverse&nbsp;as the next-generation internet, will require more processing power compared to current technologies as well, which will, in turn, lead to higher chip demand. Overall, the growth outlook for the semiconductor industry is thus strong and will remain strong for a long time, I believe. This does not necessarily mean that every company in this space will grow forever, but it is, of course, better to be active in a high-growth industry rather than a low-growth industry, all else equal.<blockquote>在过去的几十年里，全球半导体行业经历了快速增长，因为芯片已经成为我们几乎所有事情的组成部分，从工作到个人通信，甚至是我们度过空闲时间的方式。这些趋势——数字化和技术化——仍在发挥作用，在一二十年内，我们似乎不太可能使用更少的技术设备和产品。事实上，在我看来，由于物联网、智能产品、自动驾驶汽车、可穿戴技术等大趋势，我们的芯片使用量几乎肯定会增长得更快。即使是在家工作等趋势也会导致面对面进行的会议减少，这反过来又会导致处理视频会议的服务器场对家庭技术设备和处理能力的需求增加。与当前技术相比，新兴技术（如作为下一代互联网的元宇宙）也将需要更多的处理能力，这反过来将导致更高的芯片需求。总体而言，半导体行业的增长前景因此强劲，我相信将在很长一段时间内保持强劲。这并不一定意味着这个领域的每家公司都会永远增长，但在其他条件相同的情况下，活跃在高增长行业比活跃在低增长行业当然更好。</blockquote> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, as the leading contract manufacturer in the world, will benefit from higher demand for contract manufacturing. This, in turn, will be driven by the increasing demand from fabless companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and many more that are paying TSM to manufacture their semiconductors.<blockquote>台积电公司作为全球领先的合同制造商，将受益于对合同制造的更高需求。这反过来又将受到英伟达 (NVDA)、AMD (AMD)、苹果 (AAPL) 等无晶圆厂公司不断增长的需求的推动，这些公司正在向 TSM 支付制造半导体的费用。</blockquote> Taiwan Semiconductor's business model has the upside of allowing the company to benefit from growing chip demand overall, no matter which individual customer experiences the highest demand growth. On the other hand, there are also downsides to TSM's business model, mainly the fact that the buildout of&nbsp;new plants&nbsp;requires huge capital expenditures:<blockquote>台积电的商业模式的好处是，无论哪个单个客户的需求增长最快，该公司都能从整体芯片需求增长中受益。另一方面，TSM的商业模式也存在缺点，主要是新厂的建设需要巨额资本支出：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5579119980e11c583375bdbd4b054194\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> TSM did generate operating cash flows of $29 billion over the last year, which results in a free cash flow of $9 billion once capital expenditures of $20 billion are subtracted. Net income, over the same time, was $18 billion, which means that TSM's free cash flow conversion rate was rather low, at just 50%. Other semiconductor companies, especially those that operate on a fabless basis, do generate significantly higher FCF relative to their net profits. One should, however, note that not all of TSM's capital expenditures are spent on maintenance projects, and growth spending will lead to higher cash flows at some point in the future. Still, TSM's business model means that its FCF is relatively weak relative to net profits, which limits the company's ability to grow via M&amp;A or to return cash to the company's owners.<blockquote>TSM 去年确实产生了 290 亿美元的运营现金流，减去 200 亿美元的资本支出后，自由现金流为 90 亿美元。同期净利润为180亿美元，这意味着TSM的自由现金流转换率相当低，仅为50%。其他半导体公司，尤其是那些在无晶圆厂基础上运营的公司，相对于其净利润，产生的自由现金流确实要高得多。然而，人们应该注意到，并非 TSM 的所有资本支出都用于维护项目，增长支出将在未来某个时候导致更高的现金流。尽管如此，TSM的商业模式意味着其自由现金流相对于净利润相对较弱，这限制了该公司通过并购实现增长或向公司所有者返还现金的能力。</blockquote> Is TSM Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>TSM 股票是否被高估？</blockquote> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has seen its shares rise by 45% over the last year, which may lead to questions about its current valuation. It should, however, be noted that this is not that much more than the returns by the broad market over the same time frame, as the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) is up 35% over the last twelve months. TSM's stock trades significantly below the all-time high that was hit in early 2021 at $142, shares have declined by close to 20% over the last couple of months. Based on current earnings per share estimates for this fiscal year, TSM trades at 27x net profits, which is neither an overly high valuation nor an especially low valuation in absolute terms. On a relative basis, TSM looks significantly more expensive than it used to be:<blockquote>台积电公司的股价去年上涨了 45%，这可能会引发人们对其当前估值的质疑。然而，应该指出的是，这并不比同期大盘的回报率高多少，因为标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）在过去12个月中上涨了35%。TSM 的股价远低于 2021 年初创下的 142 美元的历史高点，过去几个月股价已下跌近 20%。根据本财年目前的每股收益预测，TSM 的净利润为 27 倍，从绝对值来看，这既不是过高的估值，也不是特别低的估值。相对而言，TSM 看起来比以前贵得多：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3630fc05937b218e3c5522064b623da8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> In the above chart, we see that TSM was historically valued at 17x-23x its net profits, on average. At current prices, TSM trades about 20% above the 3-year median earnings multiple, and at a quite large 60% premium compared to the 10-year median. One can, of course, note that multiple expansion relative to the 10-year median is justified -- interest rates are ultra-low today, TSM's scale has improved and its moat has grown, and shares were arguably too cheap over much of the last decade. I would thus not call TSM overly expensive today, but it is still noteworthy that the company trades at a pretty clear premium compared to how shares were valued in the past.<blockquote>在上图中，我们看到 TSM 的历史估值平均为其净利润的 17 倍至 23 倍。按当前价格计算，TSM 的交易价格比 3 年市盈率中位数高出约 20%，与 10 年市盈率中位数相比高出 60%。当然，人们可以注意到，相对于 10 年中位数的倍数扩张是合理的——如今的利率超低，TSM 的规模有所改善，其护城河也有所扩大，而且股价可以说在过去十年的大部分时间里过于便宜。因此，我今天不会看涨期权 TSM 过于昂贵，但仍然值得注意的是，与过去的股票估值相比，该公司的交易价格明显溢价。</blockquote> When we compare TSM's valuation to its growth rate, TSM does not look overly expensive, either. The company grew its earnings per share by 11% in the most recent quarter, and&nbsp;revenue growth&nbsp;has been in the double-digits, and as high as 45% in eight out of the last eight quarters. Strong growth will persist through the coming quarters and years from what we know today:<blockquote>当我们将 TSM 的估值与其增长率进行比较时，TSM 看起来也不算太贵。该公司最近一个季度的每股收益增长了11%，收入增长一直处于两位数，在过去八个季度中，有八个季度的收入增长高达45%。根据我们目前所知，强劲增长将在未来几个季度和几年持续下去：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f91237b93efce20ea06606b1896a3d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TSM presentation<blockquote>资料来源：TSM演示文稿</blockquote> Based on management's current guidance, TSM will grow its revenue by 20% in Q3, compared to the previous year's quarter. On top of that, TSM's top line will hit a new record high, as revenues have never breached $14 billion before. Margins will, from what we know, not improve versus recent quarters, but top-line growth alone, at constant margins, will allow for an attractive increase in net profits.<blockquote>根据管理层目前的指导，TSM 第三季度的收入将比去年同期增长 20%。最重要的是，TSM 的营收将创下历史新高，因为收入此前从未突破 140 亿美元。据我们所知，与最近几个季度相比，利润率不会有所改善，但在利润率不变的情况下，仅营收增长就会使净利润出现有吸引力的增长。</blockquote> Due to the aforementioned tailwinds for the semiconductor industry as a whole, and thanks to a strong position for TSM when it comes to manufacturing processes such as 5nm and 7nm, which make up 50% of TSM's revenue, it is not a big surprise to see that analysts are forecasting attractive growth well beyond 2021. Current consensus estimates see TSM earning&nbsp;$5.53 per share&nbsp;in 2023, which gets us to a 2023 earnings multiple of 21, which I do not deem expensive for a major player in a growth industry such as TSM.<blockquote>由于上述整个半导体行业的有利因素，以及 TSM 在 5 纳米和 7 纳米等制造工艺方面的强势地位（占 TSM 收入的 50%），分析师预测 2021 年以后将有吸引力的增长也就不足为奇了。目前的共识估计 TSM 2023 年每股收益为 5.53 美元，这使得 2023 年的市盈率达到 21 倍，我认为对于 TSM 这样的成长型行业的主要参与者来说，这并不贵。</blockquote> Will TSM Stock Go Up?<blockquote>TSM 股票会上涨吗？</blockquote> In the near term, price movements are mostly driven by sentiment, and not really influenced by underlying results to a large degree. It thus seems pretty daring to try to estimate where prices will be a month or 3 months from now. The current consensus price target by the analyst community is $137, which indicates an upside of around 20% over the next year. The consensus rating by Wall Street analysts is also bullish, and the same holds true for the Seeking Alpha Quant rating, which stands at3.8, which is moderately bullish. With an RSI (relative strength index) of 48, Taiwan Semiconductor is neither overbought nor oversold. Over the next year, its share price could thus climb if the analyst community is correct, but this is far from certain, and the above-average valuation may pressure returns in the foreseeable future. It is, however, more important to try to evaluate where shares will be a couple of years from now, and the outlook is pretty solid for TSM in that regard.<blockquote>短期来看，价格走势主要是由情绪驱动的，而不是在很大程度上真正受到潜在结果的影响。因此，试图估计一个月或三个月后的价格似乎相当大胆。分析师社区目前的一致目标价为 137 美元，这表明明年的上涨空间约为 20%。华尔街分析师的一致评级也是看涨的，Seeking Alpha Quant 评级也是如此，为 3.8，属于适度看涨。台积电的 RSI（相对强弱指数）为 48，既没有超买也没有超卖。因此，如果分析师界是正确的，明年其股价可能会攀升，但这还远不能确定，而且高于平均水平的估值可能会在可预见的未来给回报带来压力。然而，更重要的是尝试评估几年后的股价走势，而 TSM 在这方面的前景相当稳健。</blockquote> Is TSM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?<blockquote>TSM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</blockquote> Due to the aforementioned industry characteristics and TSM's sizeable moat when it comes to contract manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has an attractive long-term growth outlook, I believe. Analysts are forecasting $5.53 in earnings per share for 2023, and growth beyond that point should remain meaningful as well -- analysts are expecting 16% growth annually in the long run.<blockquote>由于上述行业特征以及TSM在合同制造方面的可观护城河，我相信台积电公司具有有吸引力的长期增长前景。分析师预测 2023 年每股收益为 5.53 美元，超过这一数字的增长也应该仍然有意义——分析师预计从长远来看每年增长 16%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf936a529b0793b3f6469237189d9d29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FAST Graphs<blockquote>资料来源：快速图表</blockquote> As we see in the above chart, annual returns could come in around 11% a year through the next five years if the consensus growth rate is correct -- and multiple compression towards an earnings multiple of 22 is already included in that estimate. Due to the fact that TSM is trading above its normal range today, I believe that a 27x earnings multiple will not be maintained, but an earnings multiple in the low 20s seems quite reasonable to me. Even if the P/E ratio were to decline to just 20, TSM would still generate annual returns of 9% a year through 2026, assuming growth is as fast as expected. Since TSM has managed to beat profit estimates for 13 quarters in a row, one could assume that there is little risk that analyst estimates are suddenly too aggressive -- in fact, returns could be slightly higher than what the above model indicates if the beating of expectations continues.<blockquote>正如我们在上图中看到的，如果共识增长率正确，未来五年的年回报率可能会达到每年 11% 左右，并且该估计中已经包含了市盈率 22 倍的多重压缩。由于 TSM 今天的交易价格高于正常范围，我相信 27 倍的市盈率将无法维持，但市盈率低于 20 多倍对我来说似乎相当合理。即使市盈率降至仅 20，假设增长像预期一样快，TSM 到 2026 年仍将产生每年 9% 的年回报率。由于 TSM 已连续 13 个季度超出利润预期，人们可以假设分析师预测突然过于激进的风险很小——事实上，如果超出预期，回报可能会略高于上述模型所显示的水平。</blockquote> Overall, TSM looks like a very solid long-term investment if one seeks a play that gives exposure to the whole semiconductor industry and its long-term growth tailwinds. <blockquote>总体而言，如果寻求能够接触整个半导体行业及其长期增长推动力，那么 TSM 看起来是一项非常可靠的长期投资。</blockquote> TSM pays a dividend yielding around 1.7% today, which is not overly much, but still more than what one can get from the broad market. Combined with a 5-year dividend growth rate of 13%, Taiwan Semiconductor seems like an appealing choice for a dividend growth investment -- the overall pretty strong&nbsp;Dividend Grades&nbsp;from Seeking Alpha's quant algorithm underline this. It would, of course, be great if one could buy TSM at or closer to the median earnings multiples from the past, but there is no immediate catalyst that could bring shares back down below $100, and it is far from certain that this will happen at all.<blockquote>TSM 今天支付的股息收益率约为 1.7%，虽然不算太高，但仍然高于从大盘上获得的收益率。结合 13% 的 5 年股息增长率，台积电似乎是股息增长投资的一个有吸引力的选择——Seeking Alpha 量化算法的整体相当强劲的股息等级强调了这一点。当然，如果能以或接近过去的中值市盈率购买 TSM，那就太好了，但没有立即催化剂可以使股价回到 100 美元以下，而且还远不能确定这种情况会发生。</blockquote> Overall, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company thus looks like a very solid long-term pick, even though total returns will likely be negatively impacted by some multiple compression in the long run. Annual returns, including dividends, in the 9%-12% range are realistic when one has a multi-year investment horizon, I believe. This is far from what one got over the last five years (more than 30% a year), but this could easily be enough to beat the returns of the market through 2026, I believe.<blockquote>总体而言，台积电公司因此看起来是一个非常可靠的长期选择，尽管从长远来看，总回报可能会受到一些多重压缩的负面影响。我认为，当一个人有多年投资期限时，包括股息在内的年回报率在 9%-12% 范围内是现实的。这与过去五年的水平相去甚远（每年超过 30%），但我相信，这很容易就足以超过 2026 年的市场回报率。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Taiwan Semiconductor Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? What To Consider<blockquote>台积电股票是好的长期投资吗？需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Taiwan Semiconductor Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? What To Consider<blockquote>台积电股票是好的长期投资吗？需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-08-04 14:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>TSM offers exposure to the growing semiconductor industry in a diversified way, as it will benefit from growth at NVIDIA, Apple, and many more.</li> <li>The company's business model has some disadvantages as well, mainly its relatively high capital requirements that limit its FCF conversion rate.</li> <li>TSM is trading above its longer-term valuation range, but shares could still deliver attractive returns in the long run.</li> </ul> Article Thesis<blockquote><ul><li>TSM 以多元化的方式接触不断增长的半导体行业，因为它将受益于 NVIDIA、苹果等公司的增长。</li><li>该公司的商业模式也有一些缺点，主要是其相对较高的资本要求限制了其自由现金流转换率。</li><li>TSM 的交易价格高于其长期估值范围，但从长远来看，其股票仍可提供有吸引力的回报。</li></ul>文章论文</blockquote> The semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth in recent years, and the long-term outlook remains strong as well. Chips are integral for our way of life and for our economy, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), as one of the largest manufacturers in the space, is poised to benefit from long-term growth trends. Investors should, apart from the growth prospects, also consider TSM's valuation and the risks for the business. Overall, TSM still seems like a company that could deliver attractive returns in the long run.<blockquote>半导体行业近年来经历了快速增长，长期前景也依然强劲。芯片是我们生活方式和经济不可或缺的一部分，台积电有限公司（TSM）作为该领域最大的制造商之一，有望从长期增长趋势中受益。除了增长前景之外，投资者还应该考虑台积电的估值和业务风险。总体而言，从长远来看，TSM 似乎仍然是一家能够提供有吸引力回报的公司。</blockquote> Taiwan Semiconductor As A Play On Global Semiconductor Demand Growth<blockquote>台积电推动全球半导体需求增长</blockquote> Over the last couple of decades, the global semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth, as chips have become integral for almost everything we do, from work to our personal communication, and even for the way we spend our free time. These trends -- digitalization &amp; technification -- are still in play, and it seems highly unlikely that we will be using fewer technical gadgets and products in a decade or two. In fact, it seems, to me, pretty much certain that our chip usage will grow even more, due to megatrends such as the internet of things, smart products, self-driving cars, wearable tech, and so on. Even trends such as working from home will lead to fewer meetings that will be conducted in-person, which will, in turn, lead to higher demand for at-home technical equipment and processing power in server farms that handle video conferences. New and emerging technologies, such as the&nbsp;Metaverse&nbsp;as the next-generation internet, will require more processing power compared to current technologies as well, which will, in turn, lead to higher chip demand. Overall, the growth outlook for the semiconductor industry is thus strong and will remain strong for a long time, I believe. This does not necessarily mean that every company in this space will grow forever, but it is, of course, better to be active in a high-growth industry rather than a low-growth industry, all else equal.<blockquote>在过去的几十年里，全球半导体行业经历了快速增长，因为芯片已经成为我们几乎所有事情的组成部分，从工作到个人通信，甚至是我们度过空闲时间的方式。这些趋势——数字化和技术化——仍在发挥作用，在一二十年内，我们似乎不太可能使用更少的技术设备和产品。事实上，在我看来，由于物联网、智能产品、自动驾驶汽车、可穿戴技术等大趋势，我们的芯片使用量几乎肯定会增长得更快。即使是在家工作等趋势也会导致面对面进行的会议减少，这反过来又会导致处理视频会议的服务器场对家庭技术设备和处理能力的需求增加。与当前技术相比，新兴技术（如作为下一代互联网的元宇宙）也将需要更多的处理能力，这反过来将导致更高的芯片需求。总体而言，半导体行业的增长前景因此强劲，我相信将在很长一段时间内保持强劲。这并不一定意味着这个领域的每家公司都会永远增长，但在其他条件相同的情况下，活跃在高增长行业比活跃在低增长行业当然更好。</blockquote> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, as the leading contract manufacturer in the world, will benefit from higher demand for contract manufacturing. This, in turn, will be driven by the increasing demand from fabless companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and many more that are paying TSM to manufacture their semiconductors.<blockquote>台积电公司作为全球领先的合同制造商，将受益于对合同制造的更高需求。这反过来又将受到英伟达 (NVDA)、AMD (AMD)、苹果 (AAPL) 等无晶圆厂公司不断增长的需求的推动，这些公司正在向 TSM 支付制造半导体的费用。</blockquote> Taiwan Semiconductor's business model has the upside of allowing the company to benefit from growing chip demand overall, no matter which individual customer experiences the highest demand growth. On the other hand, there are also downsides to TSM's business model, mainly the fact that the buildout of&nbsp;new plants&nbsp;requires huge capital expenditures:<blockquote>台积电的商业模式的好处是，无论哪个单个客户的需求增长最快，该公司都能从整体芯片需求增长中受益。另一方面，TSM的商业模式也存在缺点，主要是新厂的建设需要巨额资本支出：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5579119980e11c583375bdbd4b054194\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> TSM did generate operating cash flows of $29 billion over the last year, which results in a free cash flow of $9 billion once capital expenditures of $20 billion are subtracted. Net income, over the same time, was $18 billion, which means that TSM's free cash flow conversion rate was rather low, at just 50%. Other semiconductor companies, especially those that operate on a fabless basis, do generate significantly higher FCF relative to their net profits. One should, however, note that not all of TSM's capital expenditures are spent on maintenance projects, and growth spending will lead to higher cash flows at some point in the future. Still, TSM's business model means that its FCF is relatively weak relative to net profits, which limits the company's ability to grow via M&amp;A or to return cash to the company's owners.<blockquote>TSM 去年确实产生了 290 亿美元的运营现金流，减去 200 亿美元的资本支出后，自由现金流为 90 亿美元。同期净利润为180亿美元，这意味着TSM的自由现金流转换率相当低，仅为50%。其他半导体公司，尤其是那些在无晶圆厂基础上运营的公司，相对于其净利润，产生的自由现金流确实要高得多。然而，人们应该注意到，并非 TSM 的所有资本支出都用于维护项目，增长支出将在未来某个时候导致更高的现金流。尽管如此，TSM的商业模式意味着其自由现金流相对于净利润相对较弱，这限制了该公司通过并购实现增长或向公司所有者返还现金的能力。</blockquote> Is TSM Stock Overvalued?<blockquote>TSM 股票是否被高估？</blockquote> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has seen its shares rise by 45% over the last year, which may lead to questions about its current valuation. It should, however, be noted that this is not that much more than the returns by the broad market over the same time frame, as the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) is up 35% over the last twelve months. TSM's stock trades significantly below the all-time high that was hit in early 2021 at $142, shares have declined by close to 20% over the last couple of months. Based on current earnings per share estimates for this fiscal year, TSM trades at 27x net profits, which is neither an overly high valuation nor an especially low valuation in absolute terms. On a relative basis, TSM looks significantly more expensive than it used to be:<blockquote>台积电公司的股价去年上涨了 45%，这可能会引发人们对其当前估值的质疑。然而，应该指出的是，这并不比同期大盘的回报率高多少，因为标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）在过去12个月中上涨了35%。TSM 的股价远低于 2021 年初创下的 142 美元的历史高点，过去几个月股价已下跌近 20%。根据本财年目前的每股收益预测，TSM 的净利润为 27 倍，从绝对值来看，这既不是过高的估值，也不是特别低的估值。相对而言，TSM 看起来比以前贵得多：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3630fc05937b218e3c5522064b623da8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> In the above chart, we see that TSM was historically valued at 17x-23x its net profits, on average. At current prices, TSM trades about 20% above the 3-year median earnings multiple, and at a quite large 60% premium compared to the 10-year median. One can, of course, note that multiple expansion relative to the 10-year median is justified -- interest rates are ultra-low today, TSM's scale has improved and its moat has grown, and shares were arguably too cheap over much of the last decade. I would thus not call TSM overly expensive today, but it is still noteworthy that the company trades at a pretty clear premium compared to how shares were valued in the past.<blockquote>在上图中，我们看到 TSM 的历史估值平均为其净利润的 17 倍至 23 倍。按当前价格计算，TSM 的交易价格比 3 年市盈率中位数高出约 20%，与 10 年市盈率中位数相比高出 60%。当然，人们可以注意到，相对于 10 年中位数的倍数扩张是合理的——如今的利率超低，TSM 的规模有所改善，其护城河也有所扩大，而且股价可以说在过去十年的大部分时间里过于便宜。因此，我今天不会看涨期权 TSM 过于昂贵，但仍然值得注意的是，与过去的股票估值相比，该公司的交易价格明显溢价。</blockquote> When we compare TSM's valuation to its growth rate, TSM does not look overly expensive, either. The company grew its earnings per share by 11% in the most recent quarter, and&nbsp;revenue growth&nbsp;has been in the double-digits, and as high as 45% in eight out of the last eight quarters. Strong growth will persist through the coming quarters and years from what we know today:<blockquote>当我们将 TSM 的估值与其增长率进行比较时，TSM 看起来也不算太贵。该公司最近一个季度的每股收益增长了11%，收入增长一直处于两位数，在过去八个季度中，有八个季度的收入增长高达45%。根据我们目前所知，强劲增长将在未来几个季度和几年持续下去：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f91237b93efce20ea06606b1896a3d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TSM presentation<blockquote>资料来源：TSM演示文稿</blockquote> Based on management's current guidance, TSM will grow its revenue by 20% in Q3, compared to the previous year's quarter. On top of that, TSM's top line will hit a new record high, as revenues have never breached $14 billion before. Margins will, from what we know, not improve versus recent quarters, but top-line growth alone, at constant margins, will allow for an attractive increase in net profits.<blockquote>根据管理层目前的指导，TSM 第三季度的收入将比去年同期增长 20%。最重要的是，TSM 的营收将创下历史新高，因为收入此前从未突破 140 亿美元。据我们所知，与最近几个季度相比，利润率不会有所改善，但在利润率不变的情况下，仅营收增长就会使净利润出现有吸引力的增长。</blockquote> Due to the aforementioned tailwinds for the semiconductor industry as a whole, and thanks to a strong position for TSM when it comes to manufacturing processes such as 5nm and 7nm, which make up 50% of TSM's revenue, it is not a big surprise to see that analysts are forecasting attractive growth well beyond 2021. Current consensus estimates see TSM earning&nbsp;$5.53 per share&nbsp;in 2023, which gets us to a 2023 earnings multiple of 21, which I do not deem expensive for a major player in a growth industry such as TSM.<blockquote>由于上述整个半导体行业的有利因素，以及 TSM 在 5 纳米和 7 纳米等制造工艺方面的强势地位（占 TSM 收入的 50%），分析师预测 2021 年以后将有吸引力的增长也就不足为奇了。目前的共识估计 TSM 2023 年每股收益为 5.53 美元，这使得 2023 年的市盈率达到 21 倍，我认为对于 TSM 这样的成长型行业的主要参与者来说，这并不贵。</blockquote> Will TSM Stock Go Up?<blockquote>TSM 股票会上涨吗？</blockquote> In the near term, price movements are mostly driven by sentiment, and not really influenced by underlying results to a large degree. It thus seems pretty daring to try to estimate where prices will be a month or 3 months from now. The current consensus price target by the analyst community is $137, which indicates an upside of around 20% over the next year. The consensus rating by Wall Street analysts is also bullish, and the same holds true for the Seeking Alpha Quant rating, which stands at3.8, which is moderately bullish. With an RSI (relative strength index) of 48, Taiwan Semiconductor is neither overbought nor oversold. Over the next year, its share price could thus climb if the analyst community is correct, but this is far from certain, and the above-average valuation may pressure returns in the foreseeable future. It is, however, more important to try to evaluate where shares will be a couple of years from now, and the outlook is pretty solid for TSM in that regard.<blockquote>短期来看，价格走势主要是由情绪驱动的，而不是在很大程度上真正受到潜在结果的影响。因此，试图估计一个月或三个月后的价格似乎相当大胆。分析师社区目前的一致目标价为 137 美元，这表明明年的上涨空间约为 20%。华尔街分析师的一致评级也是看涨的，Seeking Alpha Quant 评级也是如此，为 3.8，属于适度看涨。台积电的 RSI（相对强弱指数）为 48，既没有超买也没有超卖。因此，如果分析师界是正确的，明年其股价可能会攀升，但这还远不能确定，而且高于平均水平的估值可能会在可预见的未来给回报带来压力。然而，更重要的是尝试评估几年后的股价走势，而 TSM 在这方面的前景相当稳健。</blockquote> Is TSM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?<blockquote>TSM 股票是一项好的长期投资吗？</blockquote> Due to the aforementioned industry characteristics and TSM's sizeable moat when it comes to contract manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has an attractive long-term growth outlook, I believe. Analysts are forecasting $5.53 in earnings per share for 2023, and growth beyond that point should remain meaningful as well -- analysts are expecting 16% growth annually in the long run.<blockquote>由于上述行业特征以及TSM在合同制造方面的可观护城河，我相信台积电公司具有有吸引力的长期增长前景。分析师预测 2023 年每股收益为 5.53 美元，超过这一数字的增长也应该仍然有意义——分析师预计从长远来看每年增长 16%。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf936a529b0793b3f6469237189d9d29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FAST Graphs<blockquote>资料来源：快速图表</blockquote> As we see in the above chart, annual returns could come in around 11% a year through the next five years if the consensus growth rate is correct -- and multiple compression towards an earnings multiple of 22 is already included in that estimate. Due to the fact that TSM is trading above its normal range today, I believe that a 27x earnings multiple will not be maintained, but an earnings multiple in the low 20s seems quite reasonable to me. Even if the P/E ratio were to decline to just 20, TSM would still generate annual returns of 9% a year through 2026, assuming growth is as fast as expected. Since TSM has managed to beat profit estimates for 13 quarters in a row, one could assume that there is little risk that analyst estimates are suddenly too aggressive -- in fact, returns could be slightly higher than what the above model indicates if the beating of expectations continues.<blockquote>正如我们在上图中看到的，如果共识增长率正确，未来五年的年回报率可能会达到每年 11% 左右，并且该估计中已经包含了市盈率 22 倍的多重压缩。由于 TSM 今天的交易价格高于正常范围，我相信 27 倍的市盈率将无法维持，但市盈率低于 20 多倍对我来说似乎相当合理。即使市盈率降至仅 20，假设增长像预期一样快，TSM 到 2026 年仍将产生每年 9% 的年回报率。由于 TSM 已连续 13 个季度超出利润预期，人们可以假设分析师预测突然过于激进的风险很小——事实上，如果超出预期，回报可能会略高于上述模型所显示的水平。</blockquote> Overall, TSM looks like a very solid long-term investment if one seeks a play that gives exposure to the whole semiconductor industry and its long-term growth tailwinds. <blockquote>总体而言，如果寻求能够接触整个半导体行业及其长期增长推动力，那么 TSM 看起来是一项非常可靠的长期投资。</blockquote> TSM pays a dividend yielding around 1.7% today, which is not overly much, but still more than what one can get from the broad market. Combined with a 5-year dividend growth rate of 13%, Taiwan Semiconductor seems like an appealing choice for a dividend growth investment -- the overall pretty strong&nbsp;Dividend Grades&nbsp;from Seeking Alpha's quant algorithm underline this. It would, of course, be great if one could buy TSM at or closer to the median earnings multiples from the past, but there is no immediate catalyst that could bring shares back down below $100, and it is far from certain that this will happen at all.<blockquote>TSM 今天支付的股息收益率约为 1.7%，虽然不算太高，但仍然高于从大盘上获得的收益率。结合 13% 的 5 年股息增长率，台积电似乎是股息增长投资的一个有吸引力的选择——Seeking Alpha 量化算法的整体相当强劲的股息等级强调了这一点。当然，如果能以或接近过去的中值市盈率购买 TSM，那就太好了，但没有立即催化剂可以使股价回到 100 美元以下，而且还远不能确定这种情况会发生。</blockquote> Overall, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company thus looks like a very solid long-term pick, even though total returns will likely be negatively impacted by some multiple compression in the long run. Annual returns, including dividends, in the 9%-12% range are realistic when one has a multi-year investment horizon, I believe. This is far from what one got over the last five years (more than 30% a year), but this could easily be enough to beat the returns of the market through 2026, I believe.<blockquote>总体而言，台积电公司因此看起来是一个非常可靠的长期选择，尽管从长远来看，总回报可能会受到一些多重压缩的负面影响。我认为，当一个人有多年投资期限时，包括股息在内的年回报率在 9%-12% 范围内是现实的。这与过去五年的水平相去甚远（每年超过 30%），但我相信，这很容易就足以超过 2026 年的市场回报率。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444222-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-good-long-term-investment\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444222-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-good-long-term-investment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136485652","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSM offers exposure to the growing semiconductor industry in a diversified way, as it will benefit from growth at NVIDIA, Apple, and many more.\nThe company's business model has some disadvantages as well, mainly its relatively high capital requirements that limit its FCF conversion rate.\nTSM is trading above its longer-term valuation range, but shares could still deliver attractive returns in the long run.\n\nArticle Thesis\nThe semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth in recent years, and the long-term outlook remains strong as well. Chips are integral for our way of life and for our economy, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), as one of the largest manufacturers in the space, is poised to benefit from long-term growth trends. Investors should, apart from the growth prospects, also consider TSM's valuation and the risks for the business. Overall, TSM still seems like a company that could deliver attractive returns in the long run.\nTaiwan Semiconductor As A Play On Global Semiconductor Demand Growth\nOver the last couple of decades, the global semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth, as chips have become integral for almost everything we do, from work to our personal communication, and even for the way we spend our free time. These trends -- digitalization & technification -- are still in play, and it seems highly unlikely that we will be using fewer technical gadgets and products in a decade or two. In fact, it seems, to me, pretty much certain that our chip usage will grow even more, due to megatrends such as the internet of things, smart products, self-driving cars, wearable tech, and so on. Even trends such as working from home will lead to fewer meetings that will be conducted in-person, which will, in turn, lead to higher demand for at-home technical equipment and processing power in server farms that handle video conferences. New and emerging technologies, such as the Metaverse as the next-generation internet, will require more processing power compared to current technologies as well, which will, in turn, lead to higher chip demand. Overall, the growth outlook for the semiconductor industry is thus strong and will remain strong for a long time, I believe. This does not necessarily mean that every company in this space will grow forever, but it is, of course, better to be active in a high-growth industry rather than a low-growth industry, all else equal.\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, as the leading contract manufacturer in the world, will benefit from higher demand for contract manufacturing. This, in turn, will be driven by the increasing demand from fabless companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and many more that are paying TSM to manufacture their semiconductors.\nTaiwan Semiconductor's business model has the upside of allowing the company to benefit from growing chip demand overall, no matter which individual customer experiences the highest demand growth. On the other hand, there are also downsides to TSM's business model, mainly the fact that the buildout of new plants requires huge capital expenditures:\nData by YCharts\nTSM did generate operating cash flows of $29 billion over the last year, which results in a free cash flow of $9 billion once capital expenditures of $20 billion are subtracted. Net income, over the same time, was $18 billion, which means that TSM's free cash flow conversion rate was rather low, at just 50%. Other semiconductor companies, especially those that operate on a fabless basis, do generate significantly higher FCF relative to their net profits. One should, however, note that not all of TSM's capital expenditures are spent on maintenance projects, and growth spending will lead to higher cash flows at some point in the future. Still, TSM's business model means that its FCF is relatively weak relative to net profits, which limits the company's ability to grow via M&A or to return cash to the company's owners.\nIs TSM Stock Overvalued?\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has seen its shares rise by 45% over the last year, which may lead to questions about its current valuation. It should, however, be noted that this is not that much more than the returns by the broad market over the same time frame, as the S&P 500 index (SPY) is up 35% over the last twelve months. TSM's stock trades significantly below the all-time high that was hit in early 2021 at $142, shares have declined by close to 20% over the last couple of months. Based on current earnings per share estimates for this fiscal year, TSM trades at 27x net profits, which is neither an overly high valuation nor an especially low valuation in absolute terms. On a relative basis, TSM looks significantly more expensive than it used to be:\nData by YCharts\nIn the above chart, we see that TSM was historically valued at 17x-23x its net profits, on average. At current prices, TSM trades about 20% above the 3-year median earnings multiple, and at a quite large 60% premium compared to the 10-year median. One can, of course, note that multiple expansion relative to the 10-year median is justified -- interest rates are ultra-low today, TSM's scale has improved and its moat has grown, and shares were arguably too cheap over much of the last decade. I would thus not call TSM overly expensive today, but it is still noteworthy that the company trades at a pretty clear premium compared to how shares were valued in the past.\nWhen we compare TSM's valuation to its growth rate, TSM does not look overly expensive, either. The company grew its earnings per share by 11% in the most recent quarter, and revenue growth has been in the double-digits, and as high as 45% in eight out of the last eight quarters. Strong growth will persist through the coming quarters and years from what we know today:\nSource: TSM presentation\nBased on management's current guidance, TSM will grow its revenue by 20% in Q3, compared to the previous year's quarter. On top of that, TSM's top line will hit a new record high, as revenues have never breached $14 billion before. Margins will, from what we know, not improve versus recent quarters, but top-line growth alone, at constant margins, will allow for an attractive increase in net profits.\nDue to the aforementioned tailwinds for the semiconductor industry as a whole, and thanks to a strong position for TSM when it comes to manufacturing processes such as 5nm and 7nm, which make up 50% of TSM's revenue, it is not a big surprise to see that analysts are forecasting attractive growth well beyond 2021. Current consensus estimates see TSM earning $5.53 per share in 2023, which gets us to a 2023 earnings multiple of 21, which I do not deem expensive for a major player in a growth industry such as TSM.\nWill TSM Stock Go Up?\nIn the near term, price movements are mostly driven by sentiment, and not really influenced by underlying results to a large degree. It thus seems pretty daring to try to estimate where prices will be a month or 3 months from now. The current consensus price target by the analyst community is $137, which indicates an upside of around 20% over the next year. The consensus rating by Wall Street analysts is also bullish, and the same holds true for the Seeking Alpha Quant rating, which stands at3.8, which is moderately bullish. With an RSI (relative strength index) of 48, Taiwan Semiconductor is neither overbought nor oversold. Over the next year, its share price could thus climb if the analyst community is correct, but this is far from certain, and the above-average valuation may pressure returns in the foreseeable future. It is, however, more important to try to evaluate where shares will be a couple of years from now, and the outlook is pretty solid for TSM in that regard.\nIs TSM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nDue to the aforementioned industry characteristics and TSM's sizeable moat when it comes to contract manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has an attractive long-term growth outlook, I believe. Analysts are forecasting $5.53 in earnings per share for 2023, and growth beyond that point should remain meaningful as well -- analysts are expecting 16% growth annually in the long run.\nSource: FAST Graphs\nAs we see in the above chart, annual returns could come in around 11% a year through the next five years if the consensus growth rate is correct -- and multiple compression towards an earnings multiple of 22 is already included in that estimate. Due to the fact that TSM is trading above its normal range today, I believe that a 27x earnings multiple will not be maintained, but an earnings multiple in the low 20s seems quite reasonable to me. Even if the P/E ratio were to decline to just 20, TSM would still generate annual returns of 9% a year through 2026, assuming growth is as fast as expected. Since TSM has managed to beat profit estimates for 13 quarters in a row, one could assume that there is little risk that analyst estimates are suddenly too aggressive -- in fact, returns could be slightly higher than what the above model indicates if the beating of expectations continues.\nOverall, TSM looks like a very solid long-term investment if one seeks a play that gives exposure to the whole semiconductor industry and its long-term growth tailwinds. \nTSM pays a dividend yielding around 1.7% today, which is not overly much, but still more than what one can get from the broad market. Combined with a 5-year dividend growth rate of 13%, Taiwan Semiconductor seems like an appealing choice for a dividend growth investment -- the overall pretty strong Dividend Grades from Seeking Alpha's quant algorithm underline this. It would, of course, be great if one could buy TSM at or closer to the median earnings multiples from the past, but there is no immediate catalyst that could bring shares back down below $100, and it is far from certain that this will happen at all.\nOverall, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company thus looks like a very solid long-term pick, even though total returns will likely be negatively impacted by some multiple compression in the long run. Annual returns, including dividends, in the 9%-12% range are realistic when one has a multi-year investment horizon, I believe. This is far from what one got over the last five years (more than 30% a year), but this could easily be enough to beat the returns of the market through 2026, I believe.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2843,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/807781320"}