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2021-12-24

2022 go for bank stocks, buy when there is dip in price

6 Bank Stocks for 2022 With Diversified Revenue Streams and Strong Management<blockquote>2022年6只收入来源多元化、管理层强大的银行股</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":698879838,"tweetId":"698879838","gmtCreate":1640353447047,"gmtModify":1640353486199,"author":{"id":3574249039232152,"idStr":"3574249039232152","authorId":3574249039232152,"authorIdStr":"3574249039232152","name":"Tendollar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f605c975630017596221e6b84fd5350f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>2022 go for bank stocks, buy when there is dip in price</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>2022 go for bank stocks, buy when there is dip in price</body></html>","text":"2022 go for bank stocks, buy when there is dip in price","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698879838","repostId":1157685209,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157685209","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640329650,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157685209?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 15:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Bank Stocks for 2022 With Diversified Revenue Streams and Strong Management<blockquote>2022年6只收入来源多元化、管理层强大的银行股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157685209","media":"Barrons","summary":"Banks undergo annual stress tests. Bank investors should expect to face their own next year.\nFew fea","content":"Banks undergo annual stress tests. Bank investors should expect to face their own next year.<blockquote>银行每年都会接受压力测试。银行投资者应该预计明年将面临自己的局面。</blockquote> Few fear that the sector will blow up. It’s how it rates as an investment going into the new year that’s up for grabs. On the plus side, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, which should boost bank earnings, although the sector is expected to face more regulatory scrutiny, which could dampen performance.<blockquote>很少有人担心该行业会爆炸。这就是它对进入新的一年的投资的评价。从好的方面来看，美联储预计将加息，这应该会提振银行盈利，尽管该行业预计将面临更多监管审查，这可能会抑制业绩。</blockquote> While shareholders were rewarded for being passive sector investors over the past two years, they may need to be more discerning and take an active stock-picking approach going into 2022. Since the market bottom on March 23, 2020, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Bank&nbsp;exchange-traded fund (ticker: KBE) has gained 111%, coming in slightly ahead of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500,which is up 103%.<blockquote>尽管过去两年股东因成为被动行业投资者而获得回报，但他们可能需要更加挑剔，并在2022年采取积极的选股方法。自2020年3月23日市场触底以来，SPDR S&amp;P银行交易所交易基金（股票代码：KBE）已上涨111%，略高于上涨103%的标准普尔500指数。</blockquote> That type of “rising tides lifts all boats” performance likely won’t be repeated. Banks are healthy, with the biggest ones passing all of their annual stress tests while also passing the very real tests posed by the pandemic. But the catalysts for growth are murky. The pandemic recovery trade is over, banks can’t count on robust trading revenue, and the outlook for deal making is uncertain. That leaves rate hikes and loan activity as the expected levers for growth, though not all banks will benefit equally.<blockquote>这种“水涨船高”的表现可能不会重演。银行很健康，最大的银行通过了所有年度压力测试，同时也通过了疫情带来的非常真实的测试。但增长的催化剂并不明朗。疫情复苏交易已经结束，银行不能指望强劲的交易收入，交易前景也不确定。这使得加息和贷款活动成为预期的增长杠杆，尽管并非所有银行都会平等受益。</blockquote> Investors should focus on banks with diversified revenue streams and strong management teams, says Abbott Cooper, founder of Driver Management, a bank-focused investment firm.JPMorgan Chase&nbsp;(JPM) and Silicon Valley-based&nbsp;SVB Financial Group&nbsp;(SIVB) are two that look especially appealing, he says. No one would accuse either of being cheap. JPMorgan trades at 2.3 times tangible book value, while SVB Financial, which has much in common with its tech start-up clients, trades at 3.4 times tangible book value. Peers trade around 1.9 times, according to FactSet data.<blockquote>专注于银行的投资公司Driver Management创始人阿博特·库珀(Abbott Cooper)表示，投资者应该关注拥有多元化收入来源和强大管理团队的银行。摩根大通(JPM)和总部位于硅谷的SVB金融集团(SIVB)是两家看起来特别有吸引力，他说。没有人会指责他们中的任何一个廉价。摩根大通的交易价格是有形账面价值的2.3倍，而与其科技初创客户有很多共同点的SVB Financial的交易价格是有形账面价值的3.4倍。FactSet数据显示，同行的交易价格约为1.9倍。</blockquote> “The [two banks’] management teams will find a way to generate superior long term returns for investors regardless of industry, economic, and other conditions,” Cooper tells Barron’s.<blockquote>库珀表示：“[两家银行]的管理团队将找到一种方法，为投资者创造卓越的长期回报，无论行业、经济和其他条件如何巴伦周刊.</blockquote> First and foremost on investors’ minds are the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates. The central bank signaled that it would lift rates three times next year to tamp down inflation. Rate hikes are bullish for bank earnings, as loans become more profitable while the interest banks pay out in deposits doesn’t move up as swiftly.<blockquote>投资者首先关心的是美联储的加息计划。央行暗示明年将加息三次以抑制通胀。加息对银行盈利有利，因为贷款变得更有利可图，而银行支付的存款利息不会那么快上升。</blockquote> But improved profitability doesn’t always translate into stock performance. Charlie Toole of wealth-management firm Adviser Investments compared the performance of bank stocks to the S&amp;P 500 during four rate-hiking cycles dating back to 1994. In all but one instance, banks lagged the broader market regardless of whether performance was measured from the first to last rate hike or based on the first hike to the first cut. Underperformance ranged from a minuscule 0.3% during the 2004-06 rate-hike cycle to a far more drastic 27% in the lead-up to the dot-com bubble bursting.<blockquote>但盈利能力的提高并不总是转化为股票表现。财富管理公司Adviser Investments的查理·图尔(Charlie Toole)将银行股的表现与1994年以来的四个加息周期中的标普500进行了比较。除了一个例子之外，所有银行都落后于大盘，无论业绩是从第一次加息到最后一次加息还是基于第一次加息到第一次降息来衡量。表现不佳的范围从2004-06年加息周期中微不足道的0.3%到互联网泡沫破裂前更为剧烈的27%。</blockquote> Bank stocks also face a more subjective threat in the new year—regulatory pressure. Whether that pressure produces policy remains to be seen, but the sector could face attacks as appointments are made and candidates campaign in midterm elections.<blockquote>银行股在新的一年还面临着更为主观的威胁——监管压力。这种压力是否会产生政策还有待观察，但随着任命和候选人在中期选举中竞选，该行业可能会面临攻击。</blockquote> President Biden will soon be nominating the Fed’s vice chairman of banking supervision. Other open regulatory spots include the top post at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, now that Biden’s first nominee, Saule Omarova, backed out after facing opposition from Republicans and moderate Democrats.<blockquote>拜登总统很快将提名美联储负责银行监管的副主席。其他开放的监管职位包括货币监理署的最高职位，拜登的第一位提名人索勒·奥马洛娃(Saule Omarova)在面临共和党和温和民主党的反对后退出。</blockquote> Some investors are nervous that Wall Street’s watchdogs could issue more stringent capital rules that would lower shareholder payouts, apply more regulatory scrutiny to bank mergers, and increase pressure on banks to address climate change. For investors, a lot of noise in Washington could eat away at stock performance. But for some banks, it could signal a buying opportunity.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，华尔街监管机构可能会发布更严格的资本规则，从而降低股东派息，对银行合并实施更多监管审查，并加大银行应对气候变化的压力。对于投资者来说，华盛顿的大量噪音可能会侵蚀股票表现。但对于一些银行来说，这可能预示着买入机会。</blockquote> “As the sector hits air pockets, there are always unbelievable opportunities to buy quality names,” Cooper says. “The sector really trades as one when people get worried about macro concerns, and there are a lot of babies thrown out with the bathwater when that happens.”<blockquote>“随着该行业陷入困境，总是有令人难以置信的机会购买优质品牌，”库珀说。“当人们担心宏观问题时，该行业实际上是作为一个行业进行交易的，当这种情况发生时，会有很多婴儿和洗澡水一起被倒掉。”</blockquote> In addition to JPMorgan and SVB Financial, Cooper likes&nbsp;Pinnacle Financial Partners&nbsp;(PNFP),BancFirst&nbsp;(BANF),ServisFirst Bancshares&nbsp;(SFBS), and&nbsp;Western Alliance Bancorp.&nbsp;(WAL). None of the names look cheap, but they’ve consistently delivered strong returns since 2015.<blockquote>除了摩根大通和SVB Financial之外，库珀还喜欢Pinnacle Financial Partners(PNFP)、BancFirst(BANF)、ServisFirst Bancshares(SFBS)和Western Alliance Bancorp.(WAL)。这些名字看起来都不便宜，但自2015年以来，它们一直带来强劲的回报。</blockquote> Cooper’s preferred metric is the compound annual growth rate, as it shows how well banks can perform over a longer time frame and under difficult conditions. When looked at purely for its stock performance, SVB has delivered a stunning 28% compounded annually since 2015, according to FactSet. ServisFirst follows closely behind at 27%, while Western Alliance stands at 21%. JPMorgan and Pinnacle are at 14% and 13%, respectively, while BancFirst is at 12%. The industry average is 7.1%.<blockquote>库珀首选的指标是复合年增长率，因为它显示了银行在较长时间内和困难条件下的表现。FactSet的数据显示，仅从股票表现来看，SVB自2015年以来的年复合增长率高达28%，令人惊叹。ServisFirst紧随其后，为27%，而Western Alliance为21%。摩根大通和Pinnacle分别为14%和13%，而BancFirst为12%。行业平均水平为7.1%。</blockquote> For bank investors, being choosy could pay off.<blockquote>对于银行投资者来说，挑剔可能会有回报。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Bank Stocks for 2022 With Diversified Revenue Streams and Strong Management<blockquote>2022年6只收入来源多元化、管理层强大的银行股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Bank Stocks for 2022 With Diversified Revenue Streams and Strong Management<blockquote>2022年6只收入来源多元化、管理层强大的银行股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-24 15:07\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBanks undergo annual stress tests. Bank investors should expect to face their own next year.<blockquote>银行每年都会接受压力测试。银行投资者应该预计明年将面临自己的局面。</blockquote> Few fear that the sector will blow up. It’s how it rates as an investment going into the new year that’s up for grabs. On the plus side, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, which should boost bank earnings, although the sector is expected to face more regulatory scrutiny, which could dampen performance.<blockquote>很少有人担心该行业会爆炸。这就是它对进入新的一年的投资的评价。从好的方面来看，美联储预计将加息，这应该会提振银行盈利，尽管该行业预计将面临更多监管审查，这可能会抑制业绩。</blockquote> While shareholders were rewarded for being passive sector investors over the past two years, they may need to be more discerning and take an active stock-picking approach going into 2022. Since the market bottom on March 23, 2020, the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Bank&nbsp;exchange-traded fund (ticker: KBE) has gained 111%, coming in slightly ahead of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500,which is up 103%.<blockquote>尽管过去两年股东因成为被动行业投资者而获得回报，但他们可能需要更加挑剔，并在2022年采取积极的选股方法。自2020年3月23日市场触底以来，SPDR S&amp;P银行交易所交易基金（股票代码：KBE）已上涨111%，略高于上涨103%的标准普尔500指数。</blockquote> That type of “rising tides lifts all boats” performance likely won’t be repeated. Banks are healthy, with the biggest ones passing all of their annual stress tests while also passing the very real tests posed by the pandemic. But the catalysts for growth are murky. The pandemic recovery trade is over, banks can’t count on robust trading revenue, and the outlook for deal making is uncertain. That leaves rate hikes and loan activity as the expected levers for growth, though not all banks will benefit equally.<blockquote>这种“水涨船高”的表现可能不会重演。银行很健康，最大的银行通过了所有年度压力测试，同时也通过了疫情带来的非常真实的测试。但增长的催化剂并不明朗。疫情复苏交易已经结束，银行不能指望强劲的交易收入，交易前景也不确定。这使得加息和贷款活动成为预期的增长杠杆，尽管并非所有银行都会平等受益。</blockquote> Investors should focus on banks with diversified revenue streams and strong management teams, says Abbott Cooper, founder of Driver Management, a bank-focused investment firm.JPMorgan Chase&nbsp;(JPM) and Silicon Valley-based&nbsp;SVB Financial Group&nbsp;(SIVB) are two that look especially appealing, he says. No one would accuse either of being cheap. JPMorgan trades at 2.3 times tangible book value, while SVB Financial, which has much in common with its tech start-up clients, trades at 3.4 times tangible book value. Peers trade around 1.9 times, according to FactSet data.<blockquote>专注于银行的投资公司Driver Management创始人阿博特·库珀(Abbott Cooper)表示，投资者应该关注拥有多元化收入来源和强大管理团队的银行。摩根大通(JPM)和总部位于硅谷的SVB金融集团(SIVB)是两家看起来特别有吸引力，他说。没有人会指责他们中的任何一个廉价。摩根大通的交易价格是有形账面价值的2.3倍，而与其科技初创客户有很多共同点的SVB Financial的交易价格是有形账面价值的3.4倍。FactSet数据显示，同行的交易价格约为1.9倍。</blockquote> “The [two banks’] management teams will find a way to generate superior long term returns for investors regardless of industry, economic, and other conditions,” Cooper tells Barron’s.<blockquote>库珀表示：“[两家银行]的管理团队将找到一种方法，为投资者创造卓越的长期回报，无论行业、经济和其他条件如何巴伦周刊.</blockquote> First and foremost on investors’ minds are the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates. The central bank signaled that it would lift rates three times next year to tamp down inflation. Rate hikes are bullish for bank earnings, as loans become more profitable while the interest banks pay out in deposits doesn’t move up as swiftly.<blockquote>投资者首先关心的是美联储的加息计划。央行暗示明年将加息三次以抑制通胀。加息对银行盈利有利，因为贷款变得更有利可图，而银行支付的存款利息不会那么快上升。</blockquote> But improved profitability doesn’t always translate into stock performance. Charlie Toole of wealth-management firm Adviser Investments compared the performance of bank stocks to the S&amp;P 500 during four rate-hiking cycles dating back to 1994. In all but one instance, banks lagged the broader market regardless of whether performance was measured from the first to last rate hike or based on the first hike to the first cut. Underperformance ranged from a minuscule 0.3% during the 2004-06 rate-hike cycle to a far more drastic 27% in the lead-up to the dot-com bubble bursting.<blockquote>但盈利能力的提高并不总是转化为股票表现。财富管理公司Adviser Investments的查理·图尔(Charlie Toole)将银行股的表现与1994年以来的四个加息周期中的标普500进行了比较。除了一个例子之外，所有银行都落后于大盘，无论业绩是从第一次加息到最后一次加息还是基于第一次加息到第一次降息来衡量。表现不佳的范围从2004-06年加息周期中微不足道的0.3%到互联网泡沫破裂前更为剧烈的27%。</blockquote> Bank stocks also face a more subjective threat in the new year—regulatory pressure. Whether that pressure produces policy remains to be seen, but the sector could face attacks as appointments are made and candidates campaign in midterm elections.<blockquote>银行股在新的一年还面临着更为主观的威胁——监管压力。这种压力是否会产生政策还有待观察，但随着任命和候选人在中期选举中竞选，该行业可能会面临攻击。</blockquote> President Biden will soon be nominating the Fed’s vice chairman of banking supervision. Other open regulatory spots include the top post at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, now that Biden’s first nominee, Saule Omarova, backed out after facing opposition from Republicans and moderate Democrats.<blockquote>拜登总统很快将提名美联储负责银行监管的副主席。其他开放的监管职位包括货币监理署的最高职位，拜登的第一位提名人索勒·奥马洛娃(Saule Omarova)在面临共和党和温和民主党的反对后退出。</blockquote> Some investors are nervous that Wall Street’s watchdogs could issue more stringent capital rules that would lower shareholder payouts, apply more regulatory scrutiny to bank mergers, and increase pressure on banks to address climate change. For investors, a lot of noise in Washington could eat away at stock performance. But for some banks, it could signal a buying opportunity.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，华尔街监管机构可能会发布更严格的资本规则，从而降低股东派息，对银行合并实施更多监管审查，并加大银行应对气候变化的压力。对于投资者来说，华盛顿的大量噪音可能会侵蚀股票表现。但对于一些银行来说，这可能预示着买入机会。</blockquote> “As the sector hits air pockets, there are always unbelievable opportunities to buy quality names,” Cooper says. “The sector really trades as one when people get worried about macro concerns, and there are a lot of babies thrown out with the bathwater when that happens.”<blockquote>“随着该行业陷入困境，总是有令人难以置信的机会购买优质品牌，”库珀说。“当人们担心宏观问题时，该行业实际上是作为一个行业进行交易的，当这种情况发生时，会有很多婴儿和洗澡水一起被倒掉。”</blockquote> In addition to JPMorgan and SVB Financial, Cooper likes&nbsp;Pinnacle Financial Partners&nbsp;(PNFP),BancFirst&nbsp;(BANF),ServisFirst Bancshares&nbsp;(SFBS), and&nbsp;Western Alliance Bancorp.&nbsp;(WAL). None of the names look cheap, but they’ve consistently delivered strong returns since 2015.<blockquote>除了摩根大通和SVB Financial之外，库珀还喜欢Pinnacle Financial Partners(PNFP)、BancFirst(BANF)、ServisFirst Bancshares(SFBS)和Western Alliance Bancorp.(WAL)。这些名字看起来都不便宜，但自2015年以来，它们一直带来强劲的回报。</blockquote> Cooper’s preferred metric is the compound annual growth rate, as it shows how well banks can perform over a longer time frame and under difficult conditions. When looked at purely for its stock performance, SVB has delivered a stunning 28% compounded annually since 2015, according to FactSet. ServisFirst follows closely behind at 27%, while Western Alliance stands at 21%. JPMorgan and Pinnacle are at 14% and 13%, respectively, while BancFirst is at 12%. The industry average is 7.1%.<blockquote>库珀首选的指标是复合年增长率，因为它显示了银行在较长时间内和困难条件下的表现。FactSet的数据显示，仅从股票表现来看，SVB自2015年以来的年复合增长率高达28%，令人惊叹。ServisFirst紧随其后，为27%，而Western Alliance为21%。摩根大通和Pinnacle分别为14%和13%，而BancFirst为12%。行业平均水平为7.1%。</blockquote> For bank investors, being choosy could pay off.<blockquote>对于银行投资者来说，挑剔可能会有回报。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-diversified-revenue-streams-strong-management-51640310552?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行","BANF":"BancFirst银行","SFBS":"ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","JPM":"摩根大通","PNFP":"Pinnacle Financial Partners"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-diversified-revenue-streams-strong-management-51640310552?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157685209","content_text":"Banks undergo annual stress tests. Bank investors should expect to face their own next year.\nFew fear that the sector will blow up. It’s how it rates as an investment going into the new year that’s up for grabs. On the plus side, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates, which should boost bank earnings, although the sector is expected to face more regulatory scrutiny, which could dampen performance.\nWhile shareholders were rewarded for being passive sector investors over the past two years, they may need to be more discerning and take an active stock-picking approach going into 2022. Since the market bottom on March 23, 2020, the SPDR S&P Bank exchange-traded fund (ticker: KBE) has gained 111%, coming in slightly ahead of the S&P 500,which is up 103%.\nThat type of “rising tides lifts all boats” performance likely won’t be repeated. Banks are healthy, with the biggest ones passing all of their annual stress tests while also passing the very real tests posed by the pandemic. But the catalysts for growth are murky. The pandemic recovery trade is over, banks can’t count on robust trading revenue, and the outlook for deal making is uncertain. That leaves rate hikes and loan activity as the expected levers for growth, though not all banks will benefit equally.\nInvestors should focus on banks with diversified revenue streams and strong management teams, says Abbott Cooper, founder of Driver Management, a bank-focused investment firm.JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Silicon Valley-based SVB Financial Group (SIVB) are two that look especially appealing, he says. No one would accuse either of being cheap. JPMorgan trades at 2.3 times tangible book value, while SVB Financial, which has much in common with its tech start-up clients, trades at 3.4 times tangible book value. Peers trade around 1.9 times, according to FactSet data.\n“The [two banks’] management teams will find a way to generate superior long term returns for investors regardless of industry, economic, and other conditions,” Cooper tells Barron’s.\nFirst and foremost on investors’ minds are the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates. The central bank signaled that it would lift rates three times next year to tamp down inflation. Rate hikes are bullish for bank earnings, as loans become more profitable while the interest banks pay out in deposits doesn’t move up as swiftly.\nBut improved profitability doesn’t always translate into stock performance. Charlie Toole of wealth-management firm Adviser Investments compared the performance of bank stocks to the S&P 500 during four rate-hiking cycles dating back to 1994. In all but one instance, banks lagged the broader market regardless of whether performance was measured from the first to last rate hike or based on the first hike to the first cut. Underperformance ranged from a minuscule 0.3% during the 2004-06 rate-hike cycle to a far more drastic 27% in the lead-up to the dot-com bubble bursting.\nBank stocks also face a more subjective threat in the new year—regulatory pressure. Whether that pressure produces policy remains to be seen, but the sector could face attacks as appointments are made and candidates campaign in midterm elections.\nPresident Biden will soon be nominating the Fed’s vice chairman of banking supervision. Other open regulatory spots include the top post at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, now that Biden’s first nominee, Saule Omarova, backed out after facing opposition from Republicans and moderate Democrats.\nSome investors are nervous that Wall Street’s watchdogs could issue more stringent capital rules that would lower shareholder payouts, apply more regulatory scrutiny to bank mergers, and increase pressure on banks to address climate change. For investors, a lot of noise in Washington could eat away at stock performance. But for some banks, it could signal a buying opportunity.\n“As the sector hits air pockets, there are always unbelievable opportunities to buy quality names,” Cooper says. “The sector really trades as one when people get worried about macro concerns, and there are a lot of babies thrown out with the bathwater when that happens.”\nIn addition to JPMorgan and SVB Financial, Cooper likes Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP),BancFirst (BANF),ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS), and Western Alliance Bancorp. (WAL). None of the names look cheap, but they’ve consistently delivered strong returns since 2015.\nCooper’s preferred metric is the compound annual growth rate, as it shows how well banks can perform over a longer time frame and under difficult conditions. When looked at purely for its stock performance, SVB has delivered a stunning 28% compounded annually since 2015, according to FactSet. ServisFirst follows closely behind at 27%, while Western Alliance stands at 21%. JPMorgan and Pinnacle are at 14% and 13%, respectively, while BancFirst is at 12%. The industry average is 7.1%.\nFor bank investors, being choosy could pay off.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WAL":0.9,"SIVB":0.9,"PNFP":0.9,"KBE":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BANF":0.9,"SFBS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3334,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":44,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/698879838"}