Time is no_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-12-27

Time is now for the Metaverse and gaming.

Unity Stock: If You Have Been Waiting, The Time Has Come To Buy<blockquote>Unity 股票：如果您一直在等待，现在是购买的时候了</blockquote>

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Moreover, its use cases ha","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Unity is the leading engine in real-time 3D for gaming creators. Moreover, its use cases have expanded beyond gaming.</li> <li>It recently closed its Weta Digital acquisition. We believe the deal is transformative.</li> <li>Its stock has also dropped 30% from its all-time high following its momentum spike.</li> <li>We discuss why we think investors can consider the opportunity to buy now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb000e942dc4b466fc45e2c1073f83b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Unity是游戏创作者实时3D的领先引擎。此外，它的用例已经扩展到游戏之外。</li><li>它最近完成了对维塔数码的收购。我们相信这笔交易具有变革性。</li><li>在势头飙升后，其股价也从历史高点下跌了 30%。</li><li>我们讨论为什么我们认为投资者现在可以考虑买入的机会。</li></ul>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Unity Software Inc. (U) stock suffered a well-deserved battering recently as sellers took control. The retracement knocked its price level back to more reasonable levels after dropping 30% from its all-time high. Impatient investors had driven the stock up as it reported robust earnings, coupled with the euphoria surrounding its Weta Digital acquisition. The bull-trap was well-laid by the market makers, and these investors have been given invaluable lessons about patience and valuation.<blockquote>Unity Software Inc. (U) 股票最近遭受了当之无愧的打击，因为卖家控制了局面。在从历史高点下跌 30% 后，回调将其价格水平推回更合理的水平。由于该公司公布了强劲的盈利，加上围绕维塔数码收购的兴奋情绪，不耐烦的投资者推动该股上涨。做市商精心布置了牛市陷阱，这些投资者已经学到了关于耐心和估值的宝贵教训。</blockquote> Nevertheless, we have been bullish on Unity stock throughout the year. Our bullish calls in May and June are still up 62% and 32%, respectively. However, we updated in a recent November article cautioning investors not to chase the hype and&nbsp;revised our rating to Neutral. The stock has fallen 20% since the article was published.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们全年都看好 Unity 股票。我们5月和6月的看涨评级仍分别上涨62%和32%。然而，我们在最近 11 月的一篇文章中更新了警告投资者不要追逐炒作，并将我们的评级修正为中性。自文章发表以来，该股已下跌 20%。</blockquote> Moreover, thanks to the steep retracement in growth stocks recently, we believe that the time has come for us to revisit our rating. We discuss why we think investors who have been biding their time can consider adding exposure.<blockquote>此外，由于近期成长型股票大幅回调，我们认为是时候重新审视我们的评级了。我们讨论为什么我们认为一直在等待时机的投资者可以考虑增加风险敞口。</blockquote> U Stock YTD Performance<blockquote>U股年初至今表现</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e18b8051240c38f096c7aff30cb51f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U stock YTD performance (as of 23 December' 21).<blockquote>U股年初至今表现（截至21年12月23日）。</blockquote> Unity stock has had a disappointing year until its upward momentum started to recover in H2'21. We also saw the opportunity from its mispricing in May and June and thus encouraged investors to accumulate. The stock was on a steady climb towards its recovery until the momentum spike catapulted its YTD gain to 28% in November. However, the euphoria was short-lived as Unity stock's valuation returned to haunt investors who joined the \"spike bandwagon.\" After its recent retracement, the stock is back in the red for the year, with a YTD return of -5.2%, significantly underperforming the market.<blockquote>Unity 股票经历了令人失望的一年，直到 2021 年下半年其上涨势头开始恢复。我们还从其5月和6月的错误定价中看到了机会，从而鼓励投资者积累。该股在复苏过程中稳步攀升，直到 11 月份动力飙升将其年初至今涨幅推至 28%。然而，这种兴奋是短暂的，因为 Unity 股票的估值再次困扰着加入“飙升潮流”的投资者。在最近的回调之后，该股今年又回到了亏损状态，年初至今的回报率为-5.2%，明显跑输大盘。</blockquote> Why We are Turning Bullish On Unity Stock?<blockquote>为什么我们看好 Unity 股票？</blockquote> We took the opportunity to pare down our exposure in the recent spike and rotated to other undervalued growth stocks. However, we always intend to add exposure again when the euphoria has dissipated. Unity's robust FQ3 report card demonstrated that the company is still barely scratching the surface of its massive TAM, which expanded to $45B recently. The company has also&nbsp;completed its acquisition of Weta Digital on 1 December, as it works on integrating Weta Digital's unique technology stack into its offerings. The deal also brought 275 world-class engineers into Unity's payroll, which the company believes is some of the best talents that Weta Digital has recruited. Unity emphasized (edited): \"These 275 people, they're extraordinary. They're PhDs, research scientists. They've been focused on graphics research for 20 years. If you go to SIGGRAPH and look through papers… it just goes Weta, Weta, Weta.\"<blockquote>我们借此机会在最近的飙升中减少了敞口，并转向其他被低估的成长型股票。然而，当欣快感消散后，我们总是打算再次增加曝光。Unity 强劲的第三季度成绩单表明，该公司仍勉强触及其庞大 TAM 的表面，该 TAM 最近已扩大至 45B 美元。该公司还于 12 月 1 日完成了对维塔数码的收购，致力于将 Weta Digital 独特的技术堆栈集成到其产品中。这笔交易还为 Unity 带来了 275 名世界级工程师，该公司认为他们是维塔数码招聘的一些最优秀的人才。Unity 强调（编辑）：“这 275 人非常非凡。他们是博士、研究科学家。他们专注于图形研究已有 20 年。如果你去 SIGGRAPH 浏览论文……你会发现，一切都很顺利。”</blockquote> Therefore, we firmly believe that it's a transformative acquisition for Unity. Creators have already used the company's solutions across multiple industries, most notably in gaming. In addition, the company has documented numerous industrial and commercial use cases as enterprise customers realize the power of its real-time 3D engine.<blockquote>因此，我们坚信这是 Unity 的一次变革性收购。创作者已经在多个行业使用了该公司的解决方案，尤其是在游戏领域。此外，随着企业客户意识到其实时3D引擎的强大功能，该公司还记录了许多工业和商业用例。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/878e57a9fe0cb69914c0f7f253b774f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity enterprise customers. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Unity企业客户。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb656e9fcbf3fc8a38a59165058c147f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity dollar-based net expansion rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>单位美元净扩张率。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> Consequently, Unity continues to experience stellar growth in its enterprise base. Its enterprise customer grew from just 553 in FQ3'19 to 973 in FQ3'21, representing a CAGR of 32.7%. Moreover, its customers continue to expand their use cases consistently. As a result, its net expansion rate has maintained around 140% over time. Therefore, the company has sustained robust monetization in its Operate solutions while driving new use cases through its Create solutions.<blockquote>因此，Unity 的企业基础继续保持强劲增长。其企业客户从 2019 年第三季度的 553 家增长到 2021 年第三季度的 973 家，复合年增长率为 32.7%。此外，其客户继续持续扩展他们的用例。因此，随着时间的推移，其净扩张率一直保持在140%左右。因此，该公司在其运营解决方案中保持了强劲的货币化，同时通过其创建解决方案推动了新的用例。</blockquote> While it's still early to determine the expansion of new or expanded use cases linked to Weta's technology stack, Unity is confident that it can leverage strongly. In addition, it has an eye on the multi-trillion-dollar metaverse, as it aims to be one of the critical engines for creators. Unity General Manager Marc Whitten emphasized (edited):<blockquote>虽然现在确定与Weta的技术堆栈相关的新的或扩展的用例的扩展还为时过早，但Unity有信心能够大力利用它。此外，它还着眼于数万亿美元的元宇宙，因为它的目标是成为创作者的关键引擎之一。Unity 总经理 Marc Whitten 强调（编辑）：</blockquote> The key for me - I strongly believe, whatever word you want to use for the metaverse, it's going to need more 3D content. It's going to need an extraordinary increase in the number of people capable of building in 3D. Certainly from a Unity perspective, we really started thinking hard about how we could build something that democratizes content creation. Between Unity and Weta, we had the tools to do something extraordinary. You have this set of people at Weta who had built the most spectacular tools ever for 3D content creation that had never been productized. And then you have Unity, where our bread and butter is packaging and democratizing tools and making them more accessible. It became more and more clear that we could find the right transaction to make it happen. (VentureBeat) It's also essential for readers to note Weta's highly scalable tools. Unity articulated that Weta has an \"incredibly forward-looking architectural approach.\" They use \"one data model, one data river, and a set of tools that impact that. [It allows] individuals to see how things show up across multiple objects, or multiple artists to be able to collaborate and work in parallel and do amazing things around that.\" As a result, the company believes it can scale Weta's stack with its technology and extend the use cases well beyond gaming. CEO John Riccitiello added (edited):<blockquote>对我来说关键-我坚信，不管你想用什么词来形容元宇宙需要更多的3D内容.它需要一个能够进行 3D 建筑的人数大幅增加当然，从统一的角度来看，我们真的开始认真思考如何建立一个使内容创作民主化的东西。在Unity和Weta之间，我们有了做一些非凡事情的工具。Weta有一群人，他们为3D内容创作构建了有史以来最壮观的工具，这些工具从未被产品化。然后你有团结，我们的面包和黄油是包装和民主化工具，并使它们更容易获得。越来越清楚的是，我们可以找到合适的交易来实现它。（VentureBeat）读者注意到Weta高度可扩展的工具也很重要。Unity 表示，Weta 拥有“令人难以置信的前瞻性建筑方法”。他们使用“一个数据模型、一个数据河和一套影响这一点的工具。[它允许]个人看到事物如何在多个对象上显示，或者多个艺术家能够协作和并行工作，并围绕它做令人惊叹的事情。”因此，该公司相信它可以利用其技术扩展 Weta 的堆栈，并将用例扩展到游戏之外。首席执行官 John Riccitiello 补充道（已编辑）：</blockquote> I would expect the use cases to continue to grow. We see huge opportunities for us in media and entertainment, in games, adding more seats -- with artists. We believe there is an opportunity in architecture. We believe there are opportunities in automotive. So many, many different industries will continue to see growth. (Unity's FQ3'21 earnings call) We have always believed that Unity's engine is the world leader in real-time 3D. Moreover, it has proven its use cases well beyond gaming. Furthermore, the Weta deal demonstrates how management intends to further consolidate its leadership against its peers by taking its competitive moat a step further. We love companies that are relentless in their pursuit of innovation.<blockquote>我预计用例将继续增长。我们在媒体和娱乐、游戏中看到了巨大的机会，增加了更多的席位——与艺术家一起。我们相信建筑领域有机会。我们相信汽车行业存在机遇。很多很多不同的行业将继续增长。（Unity 的 Q3’21 收益看涨期权）我们一直相信 Unity 的引擎是实时 3D 领域的世界领导者。此外，它已经证明了它的用例远远超出了游戏。此外，Weta 交易表明管理层打算如何通过将竞争护城河更进一步来进一步巩固其相对于同行的领导地位。我们喜欢不懈追求创新的公司。</blockquote> Key Risks That Investors Should Consider?<blockquote>投资者应考虑的主要风险？</blockquote> The transformative acquisition is not cheap. But it shouldn't be cheap for a tech stack of this scale. The company closed the deal with a mix of cash and stock that amounted to $1.625B. Moreover, the company recently announced&nbsp;$1.5B in convertible senior notes, which would partly be used to fund its acquisitions. Given that the company had minimal long-term debt ($124M in FQ3) compared to cash and short-term investments of $1.28B, the size of the debt offering is massive. Therefore, Weta's acquisition has introduced significant execution and balance sheet risks that Unity needs to manage well.<blockquote>这次变革性收购并不便宜。但对于如此规模的技术堆栈来说，它不应该便宜。该公司以现金和股票的组合完成了这笔交易，总额为 $1.625B。此外，该公司最近宣布发行 1.5 亿美元的可转换优先票据，其中部分将用于为其收购提供资金。鉴于该公司的长期债务很少（第三季度为 1.24 亿美元），而现金和短期投资为 1.28B 美元，因此债务发行的规模非常庞大。因此，Weta 的收购带来了 Unity 需要妥善管理的重大执行和资产负债表风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93223041a6aea690d094bf9568d6ecfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">High-growth SaaS EV/NTM Revenue comps.<blockquote>高增长的SaaS EV/NTM收入比较。</blockquote> In addition, Unity stock is still priced at a significant premium. It is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 31.3x, well ahead of the high-growth SaaS comps median of 16.5x. Therefore, it's imperative for management to execute very well moving forward. Otherwise, the risks for significant value compressions could potentially occur.<blockquote>此外，Unity 股票的定价仍然存在显着溢价。该公司的 EV/NTM 收入为 31.3 倍，远远领先于高增长的 SaaS comps 中位数 16.5 倍。因此，管理层必须很好地执行前进。否则，可能会出现显著价值压缩的风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32134bf7ef0916208beb58db317ea9de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity stock EV/NTM Revenue 1Y mean.<blockquote>Unity 股票 EV/NTM 收入 1 年平均值。</blockquote> Unity stock is highly volatile. Therefore, we have added the stock in batches throughout the year as we believe its inherent volatility should continue to create attractive opportunities. Hence, we have not joined impatient investors adding through the momentum spikes.<blockquote>Unity 股票波动性很大。因此，我们全年分批增持该股，因为我们相信其固有的波动性应继续创造有吸引力的机会。因此，我们没有加入不耐烦的投资者的行列，通过势头飙升来增加。</blockquote> Nevertheless, Unity stock is trading near its 1Y revenue multiple mean. Despite that, it's clear that the stock is trading at a premium valuation.<blockquote>尽管如此，Unity 股票的交易价格仍接近其 1 年收入倍数平均值。尽管如此，很明显该股的估值较高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2cf9d3632332048d967b44d16e34369\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Unity 收入和调整后 EBITDA 利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> However, investors should note that Unity is estimated to gain significant operating leverage moving forward. Its top line is expected to increase at a CAGR of about 33% over the next three years (FY20-23). However, its adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to reach 7.3% in FY23, from -3.3% in the last FY. Hence, investors should start to pay more attention to Unity's bottom line growth moving forward. The company could begin gaining tremendous leverage and turn profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis.<blockquote>然而，投资者应该注意，Unity 预计未来将获得显着的运营杠杆。预计未来三年（2020-23 财年），其营收将以约 33% 的复合年增长率增长。然而，其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率预计将从上一财年的 -3.3% 达到2023财年的 7.3%。因此，投资者应该开始更加关注 Unity 未来的利润增长。该公司可能会开始获得巨大的杠杆，并在调整后的 EBITDA 基础上实现盈利。</blockquote> Consequently, we believe it's appropriate for us to apply a DCF valuation framework that accounts for its operating leverage moving forward. It would allow us to appreciate the impact of its profit drivers better.<blockquote>因此，我们认为应用 DCF 估值框架来考虑其未来的运营杠杆是合适的。这将使我们能够更好地了解其利润驱动因素的影响。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb7ed09dd878907100b68112586567b\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, company filings, author<blockquote>Unity 股票 DCF 估值模型。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ、公司文件、作者</blockquote> Hence, Unity stock seems to be right in our fair value zone right now. Investors who need a more considerable margin of safety can continue to wait for a potentially deeper retracement. However, investors who have high conviction could use this opportunity to add exposure to a fantastic company.<blockquote>因此，Unity 股票目前似乎处于我们的公允价值区域。需要更大安全边际的投资者可以继续等待潜在的更深回撤。然而，有高度信念的投资者可以利用这个机会增加对一家出色公司的投资。</blockquote> Consequently,we revise our rating on Unity stock to Buy.<blockquote>因此，我们将 Unity 股票评级修改为买入.</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Unity Stock: If You Have Been Waiting, The Time Has Come To Buy<blockquote>Unity 股票：如果您一直在等待，现在是购买的时候了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnity Stock: If You Have Been Waiting, The Time Has Come To Buy<blockquote>Unity 股票：如果您一直在等待，现在是购买的时候了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-27 15:11\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Unity is the leading engine in real-time 3D for gaming creators. Moreover, its use cases have expanded beyond gaming.</li> <li>It recently closed its Weta Digital acquisition. We believe the deal is transformative.</li> <li>Its stock has also dropped 30% from its all-time high following its momentum spike.</li> <li>We discuss why we think investors can consider the opportunity to buy now.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb000e942dc4b466fc45e2c1073f83b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>Unity是游戏创作者实时3D的领先引擎。此外，它的用例已经扩展到游戏之外。</li><li>它最近完成了对维塔数码的收购。我们相信这笔交易具有变革性。</li><li>在势头飙升后，其股价也从历史高点下跌了 30%。</li><li>我们讨论为什么我们认为投资者现在可以考虑买入的机会。</li></ul>杂项摄影/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Investment Thesis<blockquote>投资论文</blockquote> Unity Software Inc. (U) stock suffered a well-deserved battering recently as sellers took control. The retracement knocked its price level back to more reasonable levels after dropping 30% from its all-time high. Impatient investors had driven the stock up as it reported robust earnings, coupled with the euphoria surrounding its Weta Digital acquisition. The bull-trap was well-laid by the market makers, and these investors have been given invaluable lessons about patience and valuation.<blockquote>Unity Software Inc. (U) 股票最近遭受了当之无愧的打击，因为卖家控制了局面。在从历史高点下跌 30% 后，回调将其价格水平推回更合理的水平。由于该公司公布了强劲的盈利，加上围绕维塔数码收购的兴奋情绪，不耐烦的投资者推动该股上涨。做市商精心布置了牛市陷阱，这些投资者已经学到了关于耐心和估值的宝贵教训。</blockquote> Nevertheless, we have been bullish on Unity stock throughout the year. Our bullish calls in May and June are still up 62% and 32%, respectively. However, we updated in a recent November article cautioning investors not to chase the hype and&nbsp;revised our rating to Neutral. The stock has fallen 20% since the article was published.<blockquote>尽管如此，我们全年都看好 Unity 股票。我们5月和6月的看涨评级仍分别上涨62%和32%。然而，我们在最近 11 月的一篇文章中更新了警告投资者不要追逐炒作，并将我们的评级修正为中性。自文章发表以来，该股已下跌 20%。</blockquote> Moreover, thanks to the steep retracement in growth stocks recently, we believe that the time has come for us to revisit our rating. We discuss why we think investors who have been biding their time can consider adding exposure.<blockquote>此外，由于近期成长型股票大幅回调，我们认为是时候重新审视我们的评级了。我们讨论为什么我们认为一直在等待时机的投资者可以考虑增加风险敞口。</blockquote> U Stock YTD Performance<blockquote>U股年初至今表现</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e18b8051240c38f096c7aff30cb51f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">U stock YTD performance (as of 23 December' 21).<blockquote>U股年初至今表现（截至21年12月23日）。</blockquote> Unity stock has had a disappointing year until its upward momentum started to recover in H2'21. We also saw the opportunity from its mispricing in May and June and thus encouraged investors to accumulate. The stock was on a steady climb towards its recovery until the momentum spike catapulted its YTD gain to 28% in November. However, the euphoria was short-lived as Unity stock's valuation returned to haunt investors who joined the \"spike bandwagon.\" After its recent retracement, the stock is back in the red for the year, with a YTD return of -5.2%, significantly underperforming the market.<blockquote>Unity 股票经历了令人失望的一年，直到 2021 年下半年其上涨势头开始恢复。我们还从其5月和6月的错误定价中看到了机会，从而鼓励投资者积累。该股在复苏过程中稳步攀升，直到 11 月份动力飙升将其年初至今涨幅推至 28%。然而，这种兴奋是短暂的，因为 Unity 股票的估值再次困扰着加入“飙升潮流”的投资者。在最近的回调之后，该股今年又回到了亏损状态，年初至今的回报率为-5.2%，明显跑输大盘。</blockquote> Why We are Turning Bullish On Unity Stock?<blockquote>为什么我们看好 Unity 股票？</blockquote> We took the opportunity to pare down our exposure in the recent spike and rotated to other undervalued growth stocks. However, we always intend to add exposure again when the euphoria has dissipated. Unity's robust FQ3 report card demonstrated that the company is still barely scratching the surface of its massive TAM, which expanded to $45B recently. The company has also&nbsp;completed its acquisition of Weta Digital on 1 December, as it works on integrating Weta Digital's unique technology stack into its offerings. The deal also brought 275 world-class engineers into Unity's payroll, which the company believes is some of the best talents that Weta Digital has recruited. Unity emphasized (edited): \"These 275 people, they're extraordinary. They're PhDs, research scientists. They've been focused on graphics research for 20 years. If you go to SIGGRAPH and look through papers… it just goes Weta, Weta, Weta.\"<blockquote>我们借此机会在最近的飙升中减少了敞口，并转向其他被低估的成长型股票。然而，当欣快感消散后，我们总是打算再次增加曝光。Unity 强劲的第三季度成绩单表明，该公司仍勉强触及其庞大 TAM 的表面，该 TAM 最近已扩大至 45B 美元。该公司还于 12 月 1 日完成了对维塔数码的收购，致力于将 Weta Digital 独特的技术堆栈集成到其产品中。这笔交易还为 Unity 带来了 275 名世界级工程师，该公司认为他们是维塔数码招聘的一些最优秀的人才。Unity 强调（编辑）：“这 275 人非常非凡。他们是博士、研究科学家。他们专注于图形研究已有 20 年。如果你去 SIGGRAPH 浏览论文……你会发现，一切都很顺利。”</blockquote> Therefore, we firmly believe that it's a transformative acquisition for Unity. Creators have already used the company's solutions across multiple industries, most notably in gaming. In addition, the company has documented numerous industrial and commercial use cases as enterprise customers realize the power of its real-time 3D engine.<blockquote>因此，我们坚信这是 Unity 的一次变革性收购。创作者已经在多个行业使用了该公司的解决方案，尤其是在游戏领域。此外，随着企业客户意识到其实时3D引擎的强大功能，该公司还记录了许多工业和商业用例。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/878e57a9fe0cb69914c0f7f253b774f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity enterprise customers. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>Unity企业客户。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb656e9fcbf3fc8a38a59165058c147f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity dollar-based net expansion rate. Data source: Company filings<blockquote>单位美元净扩张率。数据来源：公司文件</blockquote> Consequently, Unity continues to experience stellar growth in its enterprise base. Its enterprise customer grew from just 553 in FQ3'19 to 973 in FQ3'21, representing a CAGR of 32.7%. Moreover, its customers continue to expand their use cases consistently. As a result, its net expansion rate has maintained around 140% over time. Therefore, the company has sustained robust monetization in its Operate solutions while driving new use cases through its Create solutions.<blockquote>因此，Unity 的企业基础继续保持强劲增长。其企业客户从 2019 年第三季度的 553 家增长到 2021 年第三季度的 973 家，复合年增长率为 32.7%。此外，其客户继续持续扩展他们的用例。因此，随着时间的推移，其净扩张率一直保持在140%左右。因此，该公司在其运营解决方案中保持了强劲的货币化，同时通过其创建解决方案推动了新的用例。</blockquote> While it's still early to determine the expansion of new or expanded use cases linked to Weta's technology stack, Unity is confident that it can leverage strongly. In addition, it has an eye on the multi-trillion-dollar metaverse, as it aims to be one of the critical engines for creators. Unity General Manager Marc Whitten emphasized (edited):<blockquote>虽然现在确定与Weta的技术堆栈相关的新的或扩展的用例的扩展还为时过早，但Unity有信心能够大力利用它。此外，它还着眼于数万亿美元的元宇宙，因为它的目标是成为创作者的关键引擎之一。Unity 总经理 Marc Whitten 强调（编辑）：</blockquote> The key for me - I strongly believe, whatever word you want to use for the metaverse, it's going to need more 3D content. It's going to need an extraordinary increase in the number of people capable of building in 3D. Certainly from a Unity perspective, we really started thinking hard about how we could build something that democratizes content creation. Between Unity and Weta, we had the tools to do something extraordinary. You have this set of people at Weta who had built the most spectacular tools ever for 3D content creation that had never been productized. And then you have Unity, where our bread and butter is packaging and democratizing tools and making them more accessible. It became more and more clear that we could find the right transaction to make it happen. (VentureBeat) It's also essential for readers to note Weta's highly scalable tools. Unity articulated that Weta has an \"incredibly forward-looking architectural approach.\" They use \"one data model, one data river, and a set of tools that impact that. [It allows] individuals to see how things show up across multiple objects, or multiple artists to be able to collaborate and work in parallel and do amazing things around that.\" As a result, the company believes it can scale Weta's stack with its technology and extend the use cases well beyond gaming. CEO John Riccitiello added (edited):<blockquote>对我来说关键-我坚信，不管你想用什么词来形容元宇宙需要更多的3D内容.它需要一个能够进行 3D 建筑的人数大幅增加当然，从统一的角度来看，我们真的开始认真思考如何建立一个使内容创作民主化的东西。在Unity和Weta之间，我们有了做一些非凡事情的工具。Weta有一群人，他们为3D内容创作构建了有史以来最壮观的工具，这些工具从未被产品化。然后你有团结，我们的面包和黄油是包装和民主化工具，并使它们更容易获得。越来越清楚的是，我们可以找到合适的交易来实现它。（VentureBeat）读者注意到Weta高度可扩展的工具也很重要。Unity 表示，Weta 拥有“令人难以置信的前瞻性建筑方法”。他们使用“一个数据模型、一个数据河和一套影响这一点的工具。[它允许]个人看到事物如何在多个对象上显示，或者多个艺术家能够协作和并行工作，并围绕它做令人惊叹的事情。”因此，该公司相信它可以利用其技术扩展 Weta 的堆栈，并将用例扩展到游戏之外。首席执行官 John Riccitiello 补充道（已编辑）：</blockquote> I would expect the use cases to continue to grow. We see huge opportunities for us in media and entertainment, in games, adding more seats -- with artists. We believe there is an opportunity in architecture. We believe there are opportunities in automotive. So many, many different industries will continue to see growth. (Unity's FQ3'21 earnings call) We have always believed that Unity's engine is the world leader in real-time 3D. Moreover, it has proven its use cases well beyond gaming. Furthermore, the Weta deal demonstrates how management intends to further consolidate its leadership against its peers by taking its competitive moat a step further. We love companies that are relentless in their pursuit of innovation.<blockquote>我预计用例将继续增长。我们在媒体和娱乐、游戏中看到了巨大的机会，增加了更多的席位——与艺术家一起。我们相信建筑领域有机会。我们相信汽车行业存在机遇。很多很多不同的行业将继续增长。（Unity 的 Q3’21 收益看涨期权）我们一直相信 Unity 的引擎是实时 3D 领域的世界领导者。此外，它已经证明了它的用例远远超出了游戏。此外，Weta 交易表明管理层打算如何通过将竞争护城河更进一步来进一步巩固其相对于同行的领导地位。我们喜欢不懈追求创新的公司。</blockquote> Key Risks That Investors Should Consider?<blockquote>投资者应考虑的主要风险？</blockquote> The transformative acquisition is not cheap. But it shouldn't be cheap for a tech stack of this scale. The company closed the deal with a mix of cash and stock that amounted to $1.625B. Moreover, the company recently announced&nbsp;$1.5B in convertible senior notes, which would partly be used to fund its acquisitions. Given that the company had minimal long-term debt ($124M in FQ3) compared to cash and short-term investments of $1.28B, the size of the debt offering is massive. Therefore, Weta's acquisition has introduced significant execution and balance sheet risks that Unity needs to manage well.<blockquote>这次变革性收购并不便宜。但对于如此规模的技术堆栈来说，它不应该便宜。该公司以现金和股票的组合完成了这笔交易，总额为 $1.625B。此外，该公司最近宣布发行 1.5 亿美元的可转换优先票据，其中部分将用于为其收购提供资金。鉴于该公司的长期债务很少（第三季度为 1.24 亿美元），而现金和短期投资为 1.28B 美元，因此债务发行的规模非常庞大。因此，Weta 的收购带来了 Unity 需要妥善管理的重大执行和资产负债表风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93223041a6aea690d094bf9568d6ecfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">High-growth SaaS EV/NTM Revenue comps.<blockquote>高增长的SaaS EV/NTM收入比较。</blockquote> In addition, Unity stock is still priced at a significant premium. It is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 31.3x, well ahead of the high-growth SaaS comps median of 16.5x. Therefore, it's imperative for management to execute very well moving forward. Otherwise, the risks for significant value compressions could potentially occur.<blockquote>此外，Unity 股票的定价仍然存在显着溢价。该公司的 EV/NTM 收入为 31.3 倍，远远领先于高增长的 SaaS comps 中位数 16.5 倍。因此，管理层必须很好地执行前进。否则，可能会出现显著价值压缩的风险。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32134bf7ef0916208beb58db317ea9de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity stock EV/NTM Revenue 1Y mean.<blockquote>Unity 股票 EV/NTM 收入 1 年平均值。</blockquote> Unity stock is highly volatile. Therefore, we have added the stock in batches throughout the year as we believe its inherent volatility should continue to create attractive opportunities. Hence, we have not joined impatient investors adding through the momentum spikes.<blockquote>Unity 股票波动性很大。因此，我们全年分批增持该股，因为我们相信其固有的波动性应继续创造有吸引力的机会。因此，我们没有加入不耐烦的投资者的行列，通过势头飙升来增加。</blockquote> Nevertheless, Unity stock is trading near its 1Y revenue multiple mean. Despite that, it's clear that the stock is trading at a premium valuation.<blockquote>尽管如此，Unity 股票的交易价格仍接近其 1 年收入倍数平均值。尽管如此，很明显该股的估值较高。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2cf9d3632332048d967b44d16e34369\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ<blockquote>Unity 收入和调整后 EBITDA 利润率。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</blockquote> However, investors should note that Unity is estimated to gain significant operating leverage moving forward. Its top line is expected to increase at a CAGR of about 33% over the next three years (FY20-23). However, its adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to reach 7.3% in FY23, from -3.3% in the last FY. Hence, investors should start to pay more attention to Unity's bottom line growth moving forward. The company could begin gaining tremendous leverage and turn profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis.<blockquote>然而，投资者应该注意，Unity 预计未来将获得显着的运营杠杆。预计未来三年（2020-23 财年），其营收将以约 33% 的复合年增长率增长。然而，其调整后的 EBITDA 利润率预计将从上一财年的 -3.3% 达到2023财年的 7.3%。因此，投资者应该开始更加关注 Unity 未来的利润增长。该公司可能会开始获得巨大的杠杆，并在调整后的 EBITDA 基础上实现盈利。</blockquote> Consequently, we believe it's appropriate for us to apply a DCF valuation framework that accounts for its operating leverage moving forward. It would allow us to appreciate the impact of its profit drivers better.<blockquote>因此，我们认为应用 DCF 估值框架来考虑其未来的运营杠杆是合适的。这将使我们能够更好地了解其利润驱动因素的影响。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb7ed09dd878907100b68112586567b\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Unity stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ, company filings, author<blockquote>Unity 股票 DCF 估值模型。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ、公司文件、作者</blockquote> Hence, Unity stock seems to be right in our fair value zone right now. Investors who need a more considerable margin of safety can continue to wait for a potentially deeper retracement. However, investors who have high conviction could use this opportunity to add exposure to a fantastic company.<blockquote>因此，Unity 股票目前似乎处于我们的公允价值区域。需要更大安全边际的投资者可以继续等待潜在的更深回撤。然而，有高度信念的投资者可以利用这个机会增加对一家出色公司的投资。</blockquote> Consequently,we revise our rating on Unity stock to Buy.<blockquote>因此，我们将 Unity 股票评级修改为买入.</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476859-unity-stock-time-to-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"U":"Unity Software Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476859-unity-stock-time-to-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136351826","content_text":"Summary\n\nUnity is the leading engine in real-time 3D for gaming creators. Moreover, its use cases have expanded beyond gaming.\nIt recently closed its Weta Digital acquisition. We believe the deal is transformative.\nIts stock has also dropped 30% from its all-time high following its momentum spike.\nWe discuss why we think investors can consider the opportunity to buy now.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nUnity Software Inc. (U) stock suffered a well-deserved battering recently as sellers took control. The retracement knocked its price level back to more reasonable levels after dropping 30% from its all-time high. Impatient investors had driven the stock up as it reported robust earnings, coupled with the euphoria surrounding its Weta Digital acquisition. The bull-trap was well-laid by the market makers, and these investors have been given invaluable lessons about patience and valuation.\nNevertheless, we have been bullish on Unity stock throughout the year. Our bullish calls in May and June are still up 62% and 32%, respectively. However, we updated in a recent November article cautioning investors not to chase the hype and revised our rating to Neutral. The stock has fallen 20% since the article was published.\nMoreover, thanks to the steep retracement in growth stocks recently, we believe that the time has come for us to revisit our rating. We discuss why we think investors who have been biding their time can consider adding exposure.\nU Stock YTD Performance\nU stock YTD performance (as of 23 December' 21).\nUnity stock has had a disappointing year until its upward momentum started to recover in H2'21. We also saw the opportunity from its mispricing in May and June and thus encouraged investors to accumulate. The stock was on a steady climb towards its recovery until the momentum spike catapulted its YTD gain to 28% in November. However, the euphoria was short-lived as Unity stock's valuation returned to haunt investors who joined the \"spike bandwagon.\" After its recent retracement, the stock is back in the red for the year, with a YTD return of -5.2%, significantly underperforming the market.\nWhy We are Turning Bullish On Unity Stock?\nWe took the opportunity to pare down our exposure in the recent spike and rotated to other undervalued growth stocks. However, we always intend to add exposure again when the euphoria has dissipated. Unity's robust FQ3 report card demonstrated that the company is still barely scratching the surface of its massive TAM, which expanded to $45B recently. The company has also completed its acquisition of Weta Digital on 1 December, as it works on integrating Weta Digital's unique technology stack into its offerings. The deal also brought 275 world-class engineers into Unity's payroll, which the company believes is some of the best talents that Weta Digital has recruited. Unity emphasized (edited): \"These 275 people, they're extraordinary. They're PhDs, research scientists. They've been focused on graphics research for 20 years. If you go to SIGGRAPH and look through papers… it just goes Weta, Weta, Weta.\"\nTherefore, we firmly believe that it's a transformative acquisition for Unity. Creators have already used the company's solutions across multiple industries, most notably in gaming. In addition, the company has documented numerous industrial and commercial use cases as enterprise customers realize the power of its real-time 3D engine.\nUnity enterprise customers. Data source: Company filings\nUnity dollar-based net expansion rate. Data source: Company filings\nConsequently, Unity continues to experience stellar growth in its enterprise base. Its enterprise customer grew from just 553 in FQ3'19 to 973 in FQ3'21, representing a CAGR of 32.7%. Moreover, its customers continue to expand their use cases consistently. As a result, its net expansion rate has maintained around 140% over time. Therefore, the company has sustained robust monetization in its Operate solutions while driving new use cases through its Create solutions.\nWhile it's still early to determine the expansion of new or expanded use cases linked to Weta's technology stack, Unity is confident that it can leverage strongly. In addition, it has an eye on the multi-trillion-dollar metaverse, as it aims to be one of the critical engines for creators. Unity General Manager Marc Whitten emphasized (edited):\n\n The key for me - I strongly believe, whatever word you want to use for\n the metaverse, it's going to need more 3D content. It's going to need an\n extraordinary increase in the number of people capable of building in 3D. Certainly from a Unity perspective, we really started thinking hard about how we could build something that democratizes content creation. Between Unity and Weta, we had the tools to do something extraordinary. You have this set of people at Weta who had built the most spectacular tools ever for 3D content creation that had never been productized. And then you have Unity, where our bread and butter is packaging and democratizing tools and making them more accessible. It became more and more clear that we could find the right transaction to make it happen. (VentureBeat)\n\nIt's also essential for readers to note Weta's highly scalable tools. Unity articulated that Weta has an \"incredibly forward-looking architectural approach.\" They use \"one data model, one data river, and a set of tools that impact that. [It allows] individuals to see how things show up across multiple objects, or multiple artists to be able to collaborate and work in parallel and do amazing things around that.\" As a result, the company believes it can scale Weta's stack with its technology and extend the use cases well beyond gaming. CEO John Riccitiello added (edited):\n\n I would expect the use cases to continue to grow. We see huge opportunities for us in media and entertainment, in games, adding more seats -- with artists. We believe there is an opportunity in architecture. We believe there are opportunities in automotive. So many, many different industries will continue to see growth. (Unity's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nWe have always believed that Unity's engine is the world leader in real-time 3D. Moreover, it has proven its use cases well beyond gaming. Furthermore, the Weta deal demonstrates how management intends to further consolidate its leadership against its peers by taking its competitive moat a step further. We love companies that are relentless in their pursuit of innovation.\nKey Risks That Investors Should Consider?\nThe transformative acquisition is not cheap. But it shouldn't be cheap for a tech stack of this scale. The company closed the deal with a mix of cash and stock that amounted to $1.625B. Moreover, the company recently announced $1.5B in convertible senior notes, which would partly be used to fund its acquisitions. Given that the company had minimal long-term debt ($124M in FQ3) compared to cash and short-term investments of $1.28B, the size of the debt offering is massive. Therefore, Weta's acquisition has introduced significant execution and balance sheet risks that Unity needs to manage well.\nHigh-growth SaaS EV/NTM Revenue comps.\nIn addition, Unity stock is still priced at a significant premium. It is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 31.3x, well ahead of the high-growth SaaS comps median of 16.5x. Therefore, it's imperative for management to execute very well moving forward. Otherwise, the risks for significant value compressions could potentially occur.\nUnity stock EV/NTM Revenue 1Y mean.\nUnity stock is highly volatile. Therefore, we have added the stock in batches throughout the year as we believe its inherent volatility should continue to create attractive opportunities. Hence, we have not joined impatient investors adding through the momentum spikes.\nNevertheless, Unity stock is trading near its 1Y revenue multiple mean. Despite that, it's clear that the stock is trading at a premium valuation.\nUnity revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nHowever, investors should note that Unity is estimated to gain significant operating leverage moving forward. Its top line is expected to increase at a CAGR of about 33% over the next three years (FY20-23). However, its adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to reach 7.3% in FY23, from -3.3% in the last FY. Hence, investors should start to pay more attention to Unity's bottom line growth moving forward. The company could begin gaining tremendous leverage and turn profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis.\nConsequently, we believe it's appropriate for us to apply a DCF valuation framework that accounts for its operating leverage moving forward. It would allow us to appreciate the impact of its profit drivers better.\nUnity stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author\nHence, Unity stock seems to be right in our fair value zone right now. Investors who need a more considerable margin of safety can continue to wait for a potentially deeper retracement. However, investors who have high conviction could use this opportunity to add exposure to a fantastic company.\nConsequently,we revise our rating on Unity stock to Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"U":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3766,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":34,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696930283"}