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2021-12-29

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Nvidia's Trillion-Dollar AI Opportunity<blockquote>英伟达万亿美元的人工智能机遇</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":696758927,"tweetId":"696758927","gmtCreate":1640778161401,"gmtModify":1640778161595,"author":{"id":3555537259700212,"idStr":"3555537259700212","authorId":3555537259700212,"authorIdStr":"3555537259700212","name":"KDL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Nice</body></html>","text":"Nice","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696758927","repostId":1174830865,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174830865","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640768348,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174830865?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-29 16:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Trillion-Dollar AI Opportunity<blockquote>英伟达万亿美元的人工智能机遇</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174830865","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNVIDIA's dominance in AI is underappreciated.The company satisfies all the conditions to grow","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>NVIDIA&#39;s dominance in AI is underappreciated.</li><li>The company satisfies all the conditions to grow its competitive advantage in AI over time.</li><li>AI could grow into a multi-trillion dollar opportunity for NVIDIA.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ccc411f40abfe931b89d5588779451\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>英伟达在人工智能领域的主导地位未被充分认识。</li><li>随着时间的推移，该公司满足了在人工智能领域增强竞争优势的所有条件。</li><li>人工智能可能会成为英伟达价值数万亿美元的机会。</li></ul>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote>AI is a watershed moment for the world. Humans’ fundamental technology is intelligence. We’re in the process of automating intelligence so that we can augment ours. The thing that’s really cool is that AI is software that writes itself, and it writes software that no humans can.Jensen Huang, Founder, and CEO of NVIDIANVIDIA (NVDA) does not get enough credit for its highly dominant position in artificial intelligence, a rapidly emerging class of technology that will likely disrupt every industry and centralize economic power in the hands of its masters. The market&#39;s increasing recognition of NVIDIA&#39;s sustainable competitive advantage in artificial intelligence (AI) and AI&#39;s long growth runway will likely sustain the stock&#39;s outperformance and premium valuation.<blockquote>AI是世界的分水岭时刻。人类的根本技术是智能。我们正在自动化智能，这样我们就可以增强我们的智能。真正酷的是，人工智能是自己编写的软件，而且它编写的软件是人类无法编写的。NVIDIA(NVDA)创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)并未因其在人工智能领域的高度主导地位而获得足够的赞誉，人工智能是一种快速发展的技术类别，可能会颠覆每个行业并将经济权力集中在其主人手中。市场越来越认可英伟达在人工智能（AI）领域的可持续竞争优势以及人工智能的长期增长跑道，这可能会维持该股的优异表现和溢价估值。</blockquote>AI &amp; Economic Centralization<blockquote>人工智能与经济集中化</blockquote>AI is exciting to the investment community because it gives those who wield it unprecedented abilities and economics. Revolutionary breakthroughs in artificial neural networks (or deep learning) in the 2010s enabled algorithms to &#34;learn&#34; and thus introduce a new level of machine intelligence never available before, allowing the algorithms to accomplish breathtaking new feats such asdefeatingthe world&#39;s top Go players and disrupting the translation industry.<blockquote>人工智能让投资界感到兴奋，因为它为那些使用人工智能的人提供了前所未有的能力和经济效益。2010年代人工神经网络（或深度学习）的革命性突破使算法能够“学习”，从而引入了前所未有的机器智能新水平，使算法能够完成令人惊叹的新壮举，例如击败世界顶级围棋选手和颠覆翻译行业。</blockquote>Importantly, for investors, modern neural network algorithms are a &#34;centralizing&#34; technology since the advantage of scale outweighs the disadvantages. The practical implication is that companies that can position themselves at the center should enjoy an unusually strong and sustainable competitive advantage in the niche where it dominates.<blockquote>重要的是，对于投资者来说，现代神经网络算法是一种“集中”技术，因为规模优势大于劣势。其实际含义是，能够将自己定位在中心的公司应该在其主导的利基市场中享有异常强大和可持续的竞争优势。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40aedfb330e1430e3b3578134c461460\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"538\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Zen Analyst<blockquote>资料来源：Zen分析师</blockquote>Companies most likely to be in this enviable position should satisfy three conditions.<blockquote>最有可能处于这种令人羡慕地位的公司应该满足三个条件。</blockquote>First, there is a massive shortage of AI experts, so only very well-funded companies or those with massive cash flow can sustain world-class AI teams. In 2017, Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY) estimated that there are only 300,000 AI researchers worldwide, far short of the millions demanded by the market. The lack of skilled people and difficulty hiring topped the list of challenges in AI to this day.<blockquote>首先，人工智能专家严重短缺，因此只有资金非常充足的公司或拥有大量现金流的公司才能维持世界级的人工智能团队。2017年，腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）估计全球AI研究人员只有30万人，远不及市场需求的数百万人。迄今为止，缺乏技术人员和招聘困难是人工智能面临的首要挑战。</blockquote>Second, AI delivers the greatest value to companies with the greatest data assets, which correlates with the scale of the enterprise. It takes a massive amount of data to train neural networks, and naturally, the best AI talents prefer to work in data-rich environments. It is no surprise that companies that are most excited about AI are also the ones with the greatest data assets, for example, Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB), Apple (AAPL), and Netflix (NFLX).<blockquote>其次，人工智能为拥有最大数据资产的公司提供了最大的价值，这与企业的规模相关。训练神经网络需要海量数据，自然，最优秀的AI人才更喜欢在数据丰富的环境中工作。毫不奇怪，对人工智能最感兴趣的公司也是拥有最多数据资产的公司，例如Alphabet(GOOG)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Meta Platforms(FB)、苹果(AAPL)和Netflix(NFLX)。</blockquote>Third, combining top AI talent and massive data to produce breakthrough products requires a management team with a strong engineering and computer science background. This condition explains why Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and NVIDIA lead in AI when other data-rich companies such as Bank of America (BAC) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) do not.<blockquote>第三，结合顶尖AI人才和海量数据生产突破性产品，需要具有强大工程和计算机科学背景的管理团队。这种情况解释了为什么亚马逊、Alphabet、微软和英伟达在人工智能领域处于领先地位，而美银(BAC)和联合健康集团(UNH)等其他数据丰富的公司却没有。</blockquote>Once a breakthrough AI product is brought to market, for example, Google&#39;s AI language translation service, one that is significantly better than alternatives, a virtuous cycle begins that further reinforces the competitive advantage of the product. First, the superior product garners more users. Second, more users interacting with the product generates more data. Third, the incremental data is then used to improve the product.<blockquote>一旦一个突破性的人工智能产品被推向市场，例如谷歌的人工智能语言翻译服务，一个明显优于替代品的产品，一个良性循环就开始了，进一步增强了产品的竞争优势。首先，优势产品获得更多用户。其次，更多的用户与产品互动会产生更多的数据。第三，增量数据用于改进产品。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/965b5370b6f9a11ec4863ece11f18ddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"730\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Zen Analyst<blockquote>资料来源：Zen分析师</blockquote>This virtuous flywheel increases the competitive advantages of the incumbents as long as they do not fall apart due to complacency and corruption.<blockquote>只要现任者不因自满和腐败而分崩离析，这种良性飞轮就会增加他们的竞争优势。</blockquote>NVIDIA&#39;s Dominance<blockquote>英伟达的主导地位</blockquote>NVIDIA satisfies all three conditions for maintaining and growing its dominant position in AI.<blockquote>英伟达满足了维持和发展其在人工智能领域主导地位的所有三个条件。</blockquote>First, NVIDIA is one of the most profitable and fastest-growing companies globally, making its stock-based compensation highly attractive to scarce AI talents. The company is expected to generate $13.7 billion in EBITDA this current fiscal year (ended January 2022), up 73% y/y.<blockquote>首先，英伟达是全球最赚钱、增长最快的公司之一，这使得其基于股票的薪酬对稀缺的AI人才极具吸引力。该公司预计本财年（截至2022年1月）将产生137亿美元的EBITDA，同比增长73%。</blockquote>Second, NVIDIA has access to a massive amount of data through its computing hardware business, CUDA parallel computing platform, gaming platforms such as GeForce Now, and software platforms such as Omniverse.<blockquote>其次，英伟达通过其计算硬件业务、CUDA并行计算平台、GeForce Now等游戏平台以及Omniverse等软件平台可以访问海量数据。</blockquote>In addition to providing AI talent a data-rich environment, the company also occupies an overwhelmingly dominant position in AI chips, making the company one of the exciting places to work for AI talent. According to JPR, NVIDIA has an 83% share of the Q2 2021 PC discrete GPUs, the preferred chip for AI training and inference. Likewise, NVIDIA GPUs also dominate the data center with over 80% market share in AI workloads.<blockquote>除了为AI人才提供数据丰富的环境，公司还在AI芯片方面占据压倒性优势地位，使公司成为AI人才工作的令人兴奋的地方之一。根据JPR的数据，英伟达在Q2 2021 PC独立GPU中占有83%的份额，这是人工智能训练和推理的首选芯片。同样，NVIDIA GPU也在数据中心占据主导地位，在AI工作负载中占有超过80%的市场份额。</blockquote>Third, in my view, NVIDIA&#39;s management ranks among the most innovative in history. Jensen Huang founded NVIDIA in 1993 and has been at the frontier of innovation in GPUs, gaming graphics, accelerated computing in data centers, AI, and the Metaverse. Today, at 58-years-old, Jensen is still deeply committed as the company&#39;s CEO, and his vision gets a tremendous amount of respect from Wall Street to Main Street.<blockquote>第三，在我看来，英伟达的管理层是历史上最具创新性的管理层之一。黄仁勋于1993年创立了英伟达，一直处于GPU、游戏图形、数据中心加速计算、人工智能和元宇宙领域创新的前沿。如今，58岁的詹森仍然坚定地担任公司首席执行官，他的愿景得到了从华尔街到大街的极大尊重。</blockquote>It is no wonder that AI talents are flocking to work at NVIDIA. According to a 2017 Glassdoor survey, NVIDIA ranked second among top employers hiring AI talent. According to a study released by Glassdoor, as of 2021, NVIDIA ranked the second-best place to work in the U.S. Given how well the company and the stock have done and the high level of employee satisfaction, NVIDIA should not have problems attracting some of the best AI talents in the world.<blockquote>难怪AI人才纷纷涌向英伟达工作。根据2017年Glassdoor的一项调查，英伟达在招聘人工智能人才的顶级雇主中排名第二。根据Glassdoor发布的一项研究，截至2021年，英伟达在美国排名第二。鉴于公司和股票的表现以及员工满意度的高水平，英伟达吸引一些世界上最优秀的人工智能人才应该没有问题。</blockquote>AI Market Opportunity<blockquote>人工智能市场机会</blockquote>NVIDIA has a massive AI portfolio that could serve every enterprise:<blockquote>NVIDIA拥有庞大的人工智能产品组合，可以为每个企业提供服务：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8542e16ee66c70106491e1d683a30912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: NVIDIA<blockquote>资料来源：英伟达</blockquote>Due to the size of its AI portfolio, it is challenging to put an exact number on NVIDIA&#39;s AI addressable market for three reasons. First, NVIDIA has products up and down the stack, from applications interacting with the end-user to hardware sitting in the data center and at the edge. Second, NVIDIA&#39;s AI technologies are horizontal (giving a limited set of capabilities to every industry) and vertical (offering a broad set of capabilities to specialized industries). Third, AI will play a crucial but not exclusive role in rapidly emerging opportunities such as the metaverse.<blockquote>由于其人工智能产品组合的规模，很难给出英伟达人工智能潜在市场的确切数字，原因有三。首先，NVIDIA拥有堆栈上下的产品，从与最终用户交互的应用程序到位于数据中心和边缘的硬件。其次，英伟达的人工智能技术是水平的（为每个行业提供有限的功能）和垂直的（为专业行业提供广泛的功能）。第三，人工智能将在元宇宙等快速出现的机会中发挥至关重要但不是排他性的作用。</blockquote>To get a sense of the scale of the opportunities for NVIDIA&#39;s AI portfolio, let&#39;s take a look at a few examples.<blockquote>为了了解英伟达人工智能产品组合的机会规模，让我们看几个例子。</blockquote>Omdia forecasts the global artificial intelligence software market will grow rapidly in the coming years, reaching around $126 billion by 2025. The overall AI market includes various applications such as natural language processing, robotic process automation, and machine learning.<blockquote>Omdia预测，全球人工智能软件市场将在未来几年快速增长，到2025年将达到1260亿美元左右。整体AI市场包括自然语言处理、机器人流程自动化和机器学习等各种应用。</blockquote>I sized the current metaverse opportunity for NVIDIA at a minimum of $360 billion, with the potential to grow into the trillions. In my view, AI will play a crucial role in the metaverse, but so will blockchain, consumer electronics such as virtual reality goggles, and GPU chips. I suspect that AI will initially play a small role in the metaverse relative to blockchain and hardware, but its importance will increase in five to ten years.<blockquote>我估计英伟达目前的元宇宙机会至少为3600亿美元，并且有可能增长到数万亿美元。在我看来，AI将在元宇宙中发挥至关重要的作用，但区块链、虚拟现实护目镜等消费电子产品以及GPU芯片也将如此。我怀疑，相对于区块链和硬件，AI最初将在元宇宙中发挥很小的作用，但其重要性将在五到十年内增加。</blockquote>However, NVIDIA&#39;s CEO, Jensen Huang, has much bigger ambitions: he believes the intelligence market is sized in the trillions. For example, he believes that AI will transform the multi-trillion transportation industry through autonomous driving, to name one industry.<blockquote>然而，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋(Elon Musk)有着更大的野心：他认为智能市场规模达数万亿美元。例如，他认为人工智能将通过自动驾驶改变数万亿的交通行业，仅举一个例子。</blockquote>Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote>(Note: all consensus and historical data in this section are from FactSet.)<blockquote>（注：本节中的所有共识和历史数据均来自FactSet。）</blockquote>While there is little disagreement that NVIDIA is an excellent company, many investors balk at NVIDIA&#39;s price action and premium valuation.<blockquote>尽管英伟达是一家优秀的公司几乎没有异议，但许多投资者对英伟达的价格走势和溢价估值犹豫不决。</blockquote>In my opinion, the stock&#39;s valuation is justified by its growth rate, the strength of its core business, and multiple &#34;free options&#34; attached to the stock. However, NVIDIA may not be appropriate for investors who would like to avoid large drawdowns given the stock&#39;s 1.95 52-week beta and the business&#39;s rapid growth, which could hit unexpected speed bumps.<blockquote>在我看来，该股的估值是合理的，其增长率、核心业务的实力以及该股附带的多个“免费期权”。然而，鉴于该股52周贝塔值为1.95，且业务快速增长，英伟达可能不适合希望避免大幅下跌的投资者，这可能会遇到意想不到的减速。</blockquote>NVDA currently trades at 58x next-twelve-month consensus EPS or a 180% premium to the S&amp;P 500. Given the stock&#39;s ~126% YTD rally and premium valuation, many investors fear chasing a winner. Furthermore, given the passionate discussions around the metaverse (see my recently published Meta Platforms article for more background information), bears will argue that NVDA&#39;s valuation is being propped up by &#34;hype.&#34;<blockquote>NVDA目前的交易价格是未来12个月共识每股收益的58倍，较标普500溢价180%。鉴于该股年初至今上涨约126%且估值溢价，许多投资者担心追逐赢家。此外，鉴于围绕元宇宙的热烈讨论（有关更多背景信息，请参阅我最近发表的Meta Platforms文章），空头会认为NVDA的估值是由“炒作”支撑的。</blockquote>I disagree with this conclusion because I believe NVDA&#39;s valuation is justified by the performance of its core business, while Omniverse has not yet materially contributed to results. For a detailed discussion of the Omniverse, please read my articleNVIDIA: Lord Of The Metaverse.<blockquote>我不同意这个结论，因为我认为NVDA的估值是由其核心业务的表现证明的，而Omniverse尚未对业绩做出实质性贡献。关于Omniverse的详细讨论，请阅读我的文章英伟达：元宇宙之王。</blockquote>NVDA&#39;s EPS grew 73% y/y in FY20 and is expected to grow another 74% in FY22 (FY ending January). By the end of this year, the company is expected to generate earnings per share ~200% higher than its 2019 earnings. Over the same period, the S&amp;P 500&#39;s EPS grew 26%. Looking ahead, consensus EPS for NVDA&#39;s FY23 implies a 19% y/y growth rate, a number the company should easily beat given the strong momentum of its businesses and its long history of beating earnings estimates. However, even 19% is well above the S&amp;P 500&#39;s expected 8% EPS growth in the same period.<blockquote>NVDA的每股收益在20财年同比增长73%，预计在22财年（截至1月的财年）将再增长74%。到今年年底，该公司的每股收益预计将比2019年的收益高出约200%。同期，标普500的每股收益增长了26%。展望未来，NVDA 2023财年的普遍每股收益意味着同比增长率为19%，鉴于其业务的强劲势头以及超出盈利预期的悠久历史，该公司应该很容易超过这个数字。然而，即使是19%也远高于标普500同期8%的每股收益增长预期。</blockquote>In addition, I believe NVDA&#39;s above-market EPS growth rate will be more sustainable than the average S&amp;P 500 company, given its near-monopoly in discrete GPUs and the secular trends driving its business. Among the most important secular drivers is the rise of AI and the metaverse.<blockquote>此外，鉴于NVDA在独立GPU领域近乎垄断以及推动其业务的长期趋势，我相信NVDA高于市场的每股收益增长率将比一般标普500公司更具可持续性。最重要的长期驱动因素之一是人工智能和元宇宙的兴起。</blockquote>Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote>We know NVIDIA has a near-monopoly in discrete GPUs, the dominant chip used to power gaming, accelerated computing, and AI. The company enjoys network effects, flywheel effects, platform dominance, and a superior R&amp;D budget, putting it head and shoulders above competitors. Its primary end markets -- gaming, data center, and AI -- are also growing well above global GDP.<blockquote>我们知道英伟达在独立GPU领域几乎处于垄断地位，独立GPU是用于支持游戏、加速计算和人工智能的主导芯片。该公司享有网络效应、飞轮效应、平台主导地位和优越的研发预算，使其遥遥领先于竞争对手。其主要终端市场——游戏、数据中心和人工智能——的增长也远高于全球GDP。</blockquote>In my view, the most significant risk for NVIDIA is regulatory and not competitive or market-based. I see two primary regulatory risks: anti-monopoly and geopolitics.<blockquote>在我看来，英伟达最大的风险是监管，而不是竞争或基于市场的风险。我看到了两个主要的监管风险：反垄断和地缘政治。</blockquote>First, the company&#39;s dominance and size make it a threat to market competition, likely resulting in regulatory pressures. NVIDIA could face regulatory risks similar to those experienced by Microsoft twenty years ago and by Meta Platforms, Apple, and Alphabet today.<blockquote>首先，该公司的主导地位和规模使其对市场竞争构成威胁，可能会导致监管压力。英伟达可能面临类似于二十年前微软以及今天Meta Platforms、苹果和Alphabet所经历的监管风险。</blockquote>We already see early signs of government pressure on NVIDIA. For example, even US regulators object to the company&#39;s pending acquisition of ARM Holdings.<blockquote>我们已经看到了政府对英伟达施加压力的早期迹象。例如，就连美国监管机构也反对该公司即将收购ARM Holdings。</blockquote>Second, as a semiconductor company with significant China revenues, NVIDIA risks being caught in the cross-hair of the US-China semiconductor war.Revenue from billings to China, including Hong Kong, was 23% of NVIDIA&#39;s revenue for the fiscal year 2021. As the leader in AI, a key area of geopolitical contest, NVIDIA&#39;s risk of being caught in geopolitics is likely much greater than the average semiconductor company.<blockquote>其次，作为一家在中国收入可观的半导体公司，英伟达面临着陷入美中半导体战争的风险。2021财年，来自中国（包括香港）的账单收入占英伟达收入的23%。作为地缘政治较量关键领域AI的领头羊，英伟达陷入地缘政治的风险很可能远大于一般的半导体公司。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Trillion-Dollar AI Opportunity<blockquote>英伟达万亿美元的人工智能机遇</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Trillion-Dollar AI Opportunity<blockquote>英伟达万亿美元的人工智能机遇</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-29 16:59\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>NVIDIA&#39;s dominance in AI is underappreciated.</li><li>The company satisfies all the conditions to grow its competitive advantage in AI over time.</li><li>AI could grow into a multi-trillion dollar opportunity for NVIDIA.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ccc411f40abfe931b89d5588779451\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>英伟达在人工智能领域的主导地位未被充分认识。</li><li>随着时间的推移，该公司满足了在人工智能领域增强竞争优势的所有条件。</li><li>人工智能可能会成为英伟达价值数万亿美元的机会。</li></ul>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</blockquote>AI is a watershed moment for the world. Humans’ fundamental technology is intelligence. We’re in the process of automating intelligence so that we can augment ours. The thing that’s really cool is that AI is software that writes itself, and it writes software that no humans can.Jensen Huang, Founder, and CEO of NVIDIANVIDIA (NVDA) does not get enough credit for its highly dominant position in artificial intelligence, a rapidly emerging class of technology that will likely disrupt every industry and centralize economic power in the hands of its masters. The market&#39;s increasing recognition of NVIDIA&#39;s sustainable competitive advantage in artificial intelligence (AI) and AI&#39;s long growth runway will likely sustain the stock&#39;s outperformance and premium valuation.<blockquote>AI是世界的分水岭时刻。人类的根本技术是智能。我们正在自动化智能，这样我们就可以增强我们的智能。真正酷的是，人工智能是自己编写的软件，而且它编写的软件是人类无法编写的。NVIDIA(NVDA)创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)并未因其在人工智能领域的高度主导地位而获得足够的赞誉，人工智能是一种快速发展的技术类别，可能会颠覆每个行业并将经济权力集中在其主人手中。市场越来越认可英伟达在人工智能（AI）领域的可持续竞争优势以及人工智能的长期增长跑道，这可能会维持该股的优异表现和溢价估值。</blockquote>AI &amp; Economic Centralization<blockquote>人工智能与经济集中化</blockquote>AI is exciting to the investment community because it gives those who wield it unprecedented abilities and economics. Revolutionary breakthroughs in artificial neural networks (or deep learning) in the 2010s enabled algorithms to &#34;learn&#34; and thus introduce a new level of machine intelligence never available before, allowing the algorithms to accomplish breathtaking new feats such asdefeatingthe world&#39;s top Go players and disrupting the translation industry.<blockquote>人工智能让投资界感到兴奋，因为它为那些使用人工智能的人提供了前所未有的能力和经济效益。2010年代人工神经网络（或深度学习）的革命性突破使算法能够“学习”，从而引入了前所未有的机器智能新水平，使算法能够完成令人惊叹的新壮举，例如击败世界顶级围棋选手和颠覆翻译行业。</blockquote>Importantly, for investors, modern neural network algorithms are a &#34;centralizing&#34; technology since the advantage of scale outweighs the disadvantages. The practical implication is that companies that can position themselves at the center should enjoy an unusually strong and sustainable competitive advantage in the niche where it dominates.<blockquote>重要的是，对于投资者来说，现代神经网络算法是一种“集中”技术，因为规模优势大于劣势。其实际含义是，能够将自己定位在中心的公司应该在其主导的利基市场中享有异常强大和可持续的竞争优势。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40aedfb330e1430e3b3578134c461460\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"538\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Zen Analyst<blockquote>资料来源：Zen分析师</blockquote>Companies most likely to be in this enviable position should satisfy three conditions.<blockquote>最有可能处于这种令人羡慕地位的公司应该满足三个条件。</blockquote>First, there is a massive shortage of AI experts, so only very well-funded companies or those with massive cash flow can sustain world-class AI teams. In 2017, Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY) estimated that there are only 300,000 AI researchers worldwide, far short of the millions demanded by the market. The lack of skilled people and difficulty hiring topped the list of challenges in AI to this day.<blockquote>首先，人工智能专家严重短缺，因此只有资金非常充足的公司或拥有大量现金流的公司才能维持世界级的人工智能团队。2017年，腾讯控股（OTCPK：TCEHY）估计全球AI研究人员只有30万人，远不及市场需求的数百万人。迄今为止，缺乏技术人员和招聘困难是人工智能面临的首要挑战。</blockquote>Second, AI delivers the greatest value to companies with the greatest data assets, which correlates with the scale of the enterprise. It takes a massive amount of data to train neural networks, and naturally, the best AI talents prefer to work in data-rich environments. It is no surprise that companies that are most excited about AI are also the ones with the greatest data assets, for example, Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB), Apple (AAPL), and Netflix (NFLX).<blockquote>其次，人工智能为拥有最大数据资产的公司提供了最大的价值，这与企业的规模相关。训练神经网络需要海量数据，自然，最优秀的AI人才更喜欢在数据丰富的环境中工作。毫不奇怪，对人工智能最感兴趣的公司也是拥有最多数据资产的公司，例如Alphabet(GOOG)、微软(MSFT)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Meta Platforms(FB)、苹果(AAPL)和Netflix(NFLX)。</blockquote>Third, combining top AI talent and massive data to produce breakthrough products requires a management team with a strong engineering and computer science background. This condition explains why Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and NVIDIA lead in AI when other data-rich companies such as Bank of America (BAC) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) do not.<blockquote>第三，结合顶尖AI人才和海量数据生产突破性产品，需要具有强大工程和计算机科学背景的管理团队。这种情况解释了为什么亚马逊、Alphabet、微软和英伟达在人工智能领域处于领先地位，而美银(BAC)和联合健康集团(UNH)等其他数据丰富的公司却没有。</blockquote>Once a breakthrough AI product is brought to market, for example, Google&#39;s AI language translation service, one that is significantly better than alternatives, a virtuous cycle begins that further reinforces the competitive advantage of the product. First, the superior product garners more users. Second, more users interacting with the product generates more data. Third, the incremental data is then used to improve the product.<blockquote>一旦一个突破性的人工智能产品被推向市场，例如谷歌的人工智能语言翻译服务，一个明显优于替代品的产品，一个良性循环就开始了，进一步增强了产品的竞争优势。首先，优势产品获得更多用户。其次，更多的用户与产品互动会产生更多的数据。第三，增量数据用于改进产品。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/965b5370b6f9a11ec4863ece11f18ddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"730\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Zen Analyst<blockquote>资料来源：Zen分析师</blockquote>This virtuous flywheel increases the competitive advantages of the incumbents as long as they do not fall apart due to complacency and corruption.<blockquote>只要现任者不因自满和腐败而分崩离析，这种良性飞轮就会增加他们的竞争优势。</blockquote>NVIDIA&#39;s Dominance<blockquote>英伟达的主导地位</blockquote>NVIDIA satisfies all three conditions for maintaining and growing its dominant position in AI.<blockquote>英伟达满足了维持和发展其在人工智能领域主导地位的所有三个条件。</blockquote>First, NVIDIA is one of the most profitable and fastest-growing companies globally, making its stock-based compensation highly attractive to scarce AI talents. The company is expected to generate $13.7 billion in EBITDA this current fiscal year (ended January 2022), up 73% y/y.<blockquote>首先，英伟达是全球最赚钱、增长最快的公司之一，这使得其基于股票的薪酬对稀缺的AI人才极具吸引力。该公司预计本财年（截至2022年1月）将产生137亿美元的EBITDA，同比增长73%。</blockquote>Second, NVIDIA has access to a massive amount of data through its computing hardware business, CUDA parallel computing platform, gaming platforms such as GeForce Now, and software platforms such as Omniverse.<blockquote>其次，英伟达通过其计算硬件业务、CUDA并行计算平台、GeForce Now等游戏平台以及Omniverse等软件平台可以访问海量数据。</blockquote>In addition to providing AI talent a data-rich environment, the company also occupies an overwhelmingly dominant position in AI chips, making the company one of the exciting places to work for AI talent. According to JPR, NVIDIA has an 83% share of the Q2 2021 PC discrete GPUs, the preferred chip for AI training and inference. Likewise, NVIDIA GPUs also dominate the data center with over 80% market share in AI workloads.<blockquote>除了为AI人才提供数据丰富的环境，公司还在AI芯片方面占据压倒性优势地位，使公司成为AI人才工作的令人兴奋的地方之一。根据JPR的数据，英伟达在Q2 2021 PC独立GPU中占有83%的份额，这是人工智能训练和推理的首选芯片。同样，NVIDIA GPU也在数据中心占据主导地位，在AI工作负载中占有超过80%的市场份额。</blockquote>Third, in my view, NVIDIA&#39;s management ranks among the most innovative in history. Jensen Huang founded NVIDIA in 1993 and has been at the frontier of innovation in GPUs, gaming graphics, accelerated computing in data centers, AI, and the Metaverse. Today, at 58-years-old, Jensen is still deeply committed as the company&#39;s CEO, and his vision gets a tremendous amount of respect from Wall Street to Main Street.<blockquote>第三，在我看来，英伟达的管理层是历史上最具创新性的管理层之一。黄仁勋于1993年创立了英伟达，一直处于GPU、游戏图形、数据中心加速计算、人工智能和元宇宙领域创新的前沿。如今，58岁的詹森仍然坚定地担任公司首席执行官，他的愿景得到了从华尔街到大街的极大尊重。</blockquote>It is no wonder that AI talents are flocking to work at NVIDIA. According to a 2017 Glassdoor survey, NVIDIA ranked second among top employers hiring AI talent. According to a study released by Glassdoor, as of 2021, NVIDIA ranked the second-best place to work in the U.S. Given how well the company and the stock have done and the high level of employee satisfaction, NVIDIA should not have problems attracting some of the best AI talents in the world.<blockquote>难怪AI人才纷纷涌向英伟达工作。根据2017年Glassdoor的一项调查，英伟达在招聘人工智能人才的顶级雇主中排名第二。根据Glassdoor发布的一项研究，截至2021年，英伟达在美国排名第二。鉴于公司和股票的表现以及员工满意度的高水平，英伟达吸引一些世界上最优秀的人工智能人才应该没有问题。</blockquote>AI Market Opportunity<blockquote>人工智能市场机会</blockquote>NVIDIA has a massive AI portfolio that could serve every enterprise:<blockquote>NVIDIA拥有庞大的人工智能产品组合，可以为每个企业提供服务：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8542e16ee66c70106491e1d683a30912\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: NVIDIA<blockquote>资料来源：英伟达</blockquote>Due to the size of its AI portfolio, it is challenging to put an exact number on NVIDIA&#39;s AI addressable market for three reasons. First, NVIDIA has products up and down the stack, from applications interacting with the end-user to hardware sitting in the data center and at the edge. Second, NVIDIA&#39;s AI technologies are horizontal (giving a limited set of capabilities to every industry) and vertical (offering a broad set of capabilities to specialized industries). Third, AI will play a crucial but not exclusive role in rapidly emerging opportunities such as the metaverse.<blockquote>由于其人工智能产品组合的规模，很难给出英伟达人工智能潜在市场的确切数字，原因有三。首先，NVIDIA拥有堆栈上下的产品，从与最终用户交互的应用程序到位于数据中心和边缘的硬件。其次，英伟达的人工智能技术是水平的（为每个行业提供有限的功能）和垂直的（为专业行业提供广泛的功能）。第三，人工智能将在元宇宙等快速出现的机会中发挥至关重要但不是排他性的作用。</blockquote>To get a sense of the scale of the opportunities for NVIDIA&#39;s AI portfolio, let&#39;s take a look at a few examples.<blockquote>为了了解英伟达人工智能产品组合的机会规模，让我们看几个例子。</blockquote>Omdia forecasts the global artificial intelligence software market will grow rapidly in the coming years, reaching around $126 billion by 2025. The overall AI market includes various applications such as natural language processing, robotic process automation, and machine learning.<blockquote>Omdia预测，全球人工智能软件市场将在未来几年快速增长，到2025年将达到1260亿美元左右。整体AI市场包括自然语言处理、机器人流程自动化和机器学习等各种应用。</blockquote>I sized the current metaverse opportunity for NVIDIA at a minimum of $360 billion, with the potential to grow into the trillions. In my view, AI will play a crucial role in the metaverse, but so will blockchain, consumer electronics such as virtual reality goggles, and GPU chips. I suspect that AI will initially play a small role in the metaverse relative to blockchain and hardware, but its importance will increase in five to ten years.<blockquote>我估计英伟达目前的元宇宙机会至少为3600亿美元，并且有可能增长到数万亿美元。在我看来，AI将在元宇宙中发挥至关重要的作用，但区块链、虚拟现实护目镜等消费电子产品以及GPU芯片也将如此。我怀疑，相对于区块链和硬件，AI最初将在元宇宙中发挥很小的作用，但其重要性将在五到十年内增加。</blockquote>However, NVIDIA&#39;s CEO, Jensen Huang, has much bigger ambitions: he believes the intelligence market is sized in the trillions. For example, he believes that AI will transform the multi-trillion transportation industry through autonomous driving, to name one industry.<blockquote>然而，英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋(Elon Musk)有着更大的野心：他认为智能市场规模达数万亿美元。例如，他认为人工智能将通过自动驾驶改变数万亿的交通行业，仅举一个例子。</blockquote>Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote>(Note: all consensus and historical data in this section are from FactSet.)<blockquote>（注：本节中的所有共识和历史数据均来自FactSet。）</blockquote>While there is little disagreement that NVIDIA is an excellent company, many investors balk at NVIDIA&#39;s price action and premium valuation.<blockquote>尽管英伟达是一家优秀的公司几乎没有异议，但许多投资者对英伟达的价格走势和溢价估值犹豫不决。</blockquote>In my opinion, the stock&#39;s valuation is justified by its growth rate, the strength of its core business, and multiple &#34;free options&#34; attached to the stock. However, NVIDIA may not be appropriate for investors who would like to avoid large drawdowns given the stock&#39;s 1.95 52-week beta and the business&#39;s rapid growth, which could hit unexpected speed bumps.<blockquote>在我看来，该股的估值是合理的，其增长率、核心业务的实力以及该股附带的多个“免费期权”。然而，鉴于该股52周贝塔值为1.95，且业务快速增长，英伟达可能不适合希望避免大幅下跌的投资者，这可能会遇到意想不到的减速。</blockquote>NVDA currently trades at 58x next-twelve-month consensus EPS or a 180% premium to the S&amp;P 500. Given the stock&#39;s ~126% YTD rally and premium valuation, many investors fear chasing a winner. Furthermore, given the passionate discussions around the metaverse (see my recently published Meta Platforms article for more background information), bears will argue that NVDA&#39;s valuation is being propped up by &#34;hype.&#34;<blockquote>NVDA目前的交易价格是未来12个月共识每股收益的58倍，较标普500溢价180%。鉴于该股年初至今上涨约126%且估值溢价，许多投资者担心追逐赢家。此外，鉴于围绕元宇宙的热烈讨论（有关更多背景信息，请参阅我最近发表的Meta Platforms文章），空头会认为NVDA的估值是由“炒作”支撑的。</blockquote>I disagree with this conclusion because I believe NVDA&#39;s valuation is justified by the performance of its core business, while Omniverse has not yet materially contributed to results. For a detailed discussion of the Omniverse, please read my articleNVIDIA: Lord Of The Metaverse.<blockquote>我不同意这个结论，因为我认为NVDA的估值是由其核心业务的表现证明的，而Omniverse尚未对业绩做出实质性贡献。关于Omniverse的详细讨论，请阅读我的文章英伟达：元宇宙之王。</blockquote>NVDA&#39;s EPS grew 73% y/y in FY20 and is expected to grow another 74% in FY22 (FY ending January). By the end of this year, the company is expected to generate earnings per share ~200% higher than its 2019 earnings. Over the same period, the S&amp;P 500&#39;s EPS grew 26%. Looking ahead, consensus EPS for NVDA&#39;s FY23 implies a 19% y/y growth rate, a number the company should easily beat given the strong momentum of its businesses and its long history of beating earnings estimates. However, even 19% is well above the S&amp;P 500&#39;s expected 8% EPS growth in the same period.<blockquote>NVDA的每股收益在20财年同比增长73%，预计在22财年（截至1月的财年）将再增长74%。到今年年底，该公司的每股收益预计将比2019年的收益高出约200%。同期，标普500的每股收益增长了26%。展望未来，NVDA 2023财年的普遍每股收益意味着同比增长率为19%，鉴于其业务的强劲势头以及超出盈利预期的悠久历史，该公司应该很容易超过这个数字。然而，即使是19%也远高于标普500同期8%的每股收益增长预期。</blockquote>In addition, I believe NVDA&#39;s above-market EPS growth rate will be more sustainable than the average S&amp;P 500 company, given its near-monopoly in discrete GPUs and the secular trends driving its business. Among the most important secular drivers is the rise of AI and the metaverse.<blockquote>此外，鉴于NVDA在独立GPU领域近乎垄断以及推动其业务的长期趋势，我相信NVDA高于市场的每股收益增长率将比一般标普500公司更具可持续性。最重要的长期驱动因素之一是人工智能和元宇宙的兴起。</blockquote>Risks<blockquote>风险</blockquote>We know NVIDIA has a near-monopoly in discrete GPUs, the dominant chip used to power gaming, accelerated computing, and AI. The company enjoys network effects, flywheel effects, platform dominance, and a superior R&amp;D budget, putting it head and shoulders above competitors. Its primary end markets -- gaming, data center, and AI -- are also growing well above global GDP.<blockquote>我们知道英伟达在独立GPU领域几乎处于垄断地位，独立GPU是用于支持游戏、加速计算和人工智能的主导芯片。该公司享有网络效应、飞轮效应、平台主导地位和优越的研发预算，使其遥遥领先于竞争对手。其主要终端市场——游戏、数据中心和人工智能——的增长也远高于全球GDP。</blockquote>In my view, the most significant risk for NVIDIA is regulatory and not competitive or market-based. I see two primary regulatory risks: anti-monopoly and geopolitics.<blockquote>在我看来，英伟达最大的风险是监管，而不是竞争或基于市场的风险。我看到了两个主要的监管风险：反垄断和地缘政治。</blockquote>First, the company&#39;s dominance and size make it a threat to market competition, likely resulting in regulatory pressures. NVIDIA could face regulatory risks similar to those experienced by Microsoft twenty years ago and by Meta Platforms, Apple, and Alphabet today.<blockquote>首先，该公司的主导地位和规模使其对市场竞争构成威胁，可能会导致监管压力。英伟达可能面临类似于二十年前微软以及今天Meta Platforms、苹果和Alphabet所经历的监管风险。</blockquote>We already see early signs of government pressure on NVIDIA. For example, even US regulators object to the company&#39;s pending acquisition of ARM Holdings.<blockquote>我们已经看到了政府对英伟达施加压力的早期迹象。例如，就连美国监管机构也反对该公司即将收购ARM Holdings。</blockquote>Second, as a semiconductor company with significant China revenues, NVIDIA risks being caught in the cross-hair of the US-China semiconductor war.Revenue from billings to China, including Hong Kong, was 23% of NVIDIA&#39;s revenue for the fiscal year 2021. As the leader in AI, a key area of geopolitical contest, NVIDIA&#39;s risk of being caught in geopolitics is likely much greater than the average semiconductor company.<blockquote>其次，作为一家在中国收入可观的半导体公司，英伟达面临着陷入美中半导体战争的风险。2021财年，来自中国（包括香港）的账单收入占英伟达收入的23%。作为地缘政治较量关键领域AI的领头羊，英伟达陷入地缘政治的风险很可能远大于一般的半导体公司。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477152-nvidia-nvda-stock-trillion-dollar-ai-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477152-nvidia-nvda-stock-trillion-dollar-ai-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174830865","content_text":"SummaryNVIDIA's dominance in AI is underappreciated.The company satisfies all the conditions to grow its competitive advantage in AI over time.AI could grow into a multi-trillion dollar opportunity for NVIDIA.imaginima/E+ via Getty ImagesAI is a watershed moment for the world. Humans’ fundamental technology is intelligence. We’re in the process of automating intelligence so that we can augment ours. The thing that’s really cool is that AI is software that writes itself, and it writes software that no humans can.Jensen Huang, Founder, and CEO of NVIDIANVIDIA (NVDA) does not get enough credit for its highly dominant position in artificial intelligence, a rapidly emerging class of technology that will likely disrupt every industry and centralize economic power in the hands of its masters. The market's increasing recognition of NVIDIA's sustainable competitive advantage in artificial intelligence (AI) and AI's long growth runway will likely sustain the stock's outperformance and premium valuation.AI & Economic CentralizationAI is exciting to the investment community because it gives those who wield it unprecedented abilities and economics. Revolutionary breakthroughs in artificial neural networks (or deep learning) in the 2010s enabled algorithms to \"learn\" and thus introduce a new level of machine intelligence never available before, allowing the algorithms to accomplish breathtaking new feats such asdefeatingthe world's top Go players and disrupting the translation industry.Importantly, for investors, modern neural network algorithms are a \"centralizing\" technology since the advantage of scale outweighs the disadvantages. The practical implication is that companies that can position themselves at the center should enjoy an unusually strong and sustainable competitive advantage in the niche where it dominates.Source: Zen AnalystCompanies most likely to be in this enviable position should satisfy three conditions.First, there is a massive shortage of AI experts, so only very well-funded companies or those with massive cash flow can sustain world-class AI teams. In 2017, Tencent(OTCPK:TCEHY) estimated that there are only 300,000 AI researchers worldwide, far short of the millions demanded by the market. The lack of skilled people and difficulty hiring topped the list of challenges in AI to this day.Second, AI delivers the greatest value to companies with the greatest data assets, which correlates with the scale of the enterprise. It takes a massive amount of data to train neural networks, and naturally, the best AI talents prefer to work in data-rich environments. It is no surprise that companies that are most excited about AI are also the ones with the greatest data assets, for example, Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (FB), Apple (AAPL), and Netflix (NFLX).Third, combining top AI talent and massive data to produce breakthrough products requires a management team with a strong engineering and computer science background. This condition explains why Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and NVIDIA lead in AI when other data-rich companies such as Bank of America (BAC) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) do not.Once a breakthrough AI product is brought to market, for example, Google's AI language translation service, one that is significantly better than alternatives, a virtuous cycle begins that further reinforces the competitive advantage of the product. First, the superior product garners more users. Second, more users interacting with the product generates more data. Third, the incremental data is then used to improve the product.Source: Zen AnalystThis virtuous flywheel increases the competitive advantages of the incumbents as long as they do not fall apart due to complacency and corruption.NVIDIA's DominanceNVIDIA satisfies all three conditions for maintaining and growing its dominant position in AI.First, NVIDIA is one of the most profitable and fastest-growing companies globally, making its stock-based compensation highly attractive to scarce AI talents. The company is expected to generate $13.7 billion in EBITDA this current fiscal year (ended January 2022), up 73% y/y.Second, NVIDIA has access to a massive amount of data through its computing hardware business, CUDA parallel computing platform, gaming platforms such as GeForce Now, and software platforms such as Omniverse.In addition to providing AI talent a data-rich environment, the company also occupies an overwhelmingly dominant position in AI chips, making the company one of the exciting places to work for AI talent. According to JPR, NVIDIA has an 83% share of the Q2 2021 PC discrete GPUs, the preferred chip for AI training and inference. Likewise, NVIDIA GPUs also dominate the data center with over 80% market share in AI workloads.Third, in my view, NVIDIA's management ranks among the most innovative in history. Jensen Huang founded NVIDIA in 1993 and has been at the frontier of innovation in GPUs, gaming graphics, accelerated computing in data centers, AI, and the Metaverse. Today, at 58-years-old, Jensen is still deeply committed as the company's CEO, and his vision gets a tremendous amount of respect from Wall Street to Main Street.It is no wonder that AI talents are flocking to work at NVIDIA. According to a 2017 Glassdoor survey, NVIDIA ranked second among top employers hiring AI talent. According to a study released by Glassdoor, as of 2021, NVIDIA ranked the second-best place to work in the U.S. Given how well the company and the stock have done and the high level of employee satisfaction, NVIDIA should not have problems attracting some of the best AI talents in the world.AI Market OpportunityNVIDIA has a massive AI portfolio that could serve every enterprise:Source: NVIDIADue to the size of its AI portfolio, it is challenging to put an exact number on NVIDIA's AI addressable market for three reasons. First, NVIDIA has products up and down the stack, from applications interacting with the end-user to hardware sitting in the data center and at the edge. Second, NVIDIA's AI technologies are horizontal (giving a limited set of capabilities to every industry) and vertical (offering a broad set of capabilities to specialized industries). Third, AI will play a crucial but not exclusive role in rapidly emerging opportunities such as the metaverse.To get a sense of the scale of the opportunities for NVIDIA's AI portfolio, let's take a look at a few examples.Omdia forecasts the global artificial intelligence software market will grow rapidly in the coming years, reaching around $126 billion by 2025. The overall AI market includes various applications such as natural language processing, robotic process automation, and machine learning.I sized the current metaverse opportunity for NVIDIA at a minimum of $360 billion, with the potential to grow into the trillions. In my view, AI will play a crucial role in the metaverse, but so will blockchain, consumer electronics such as virtual reality goggles, and GPU chips. I suspect that AI will initially play a small role in the metaverse relative to blockchain and hardware, but its importance will increase in five to ten years.However, NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, has much bigger ambitions: he believes the intelligence market is sized in the trillions. For example, he believes that AI will transform the multi-trillion transportation industry through autonomous driving, to name one industry.Valuation(Note: all consensus and historical data in this section are from FactSet.)While there is little disagreement that NVIDIA is an excellent company, many investors balk at NVIDIA's price action and premium valuation.In my opinion, the stock's valuation is justified by its growth rate, the strength of its core business, and multiple \"free options\" attached to the stock. However, NVIDIA may not be appropriate for investors who would like to avoid large drawdowns given the stock's 1.95 52-week beta and the business's rapid growth, which could hit unexpected speed bumps.NVDA currently trades at 58x next-twelve-month consensus EPS or a 180% premium to the S&P 500. Given the stock's ~126% YTD rally and premium valuation, many investors fear chasing a winner. Furthermore, given the passionate discussions around the metaverse (see my recently published Meta Platforms article for more background information), bears will argue that NVDA's valuation is being propped up by \"hype.\"I disagree with this conclusion because I believe NVDA's valuation is justified by the performance of its core business, while Omniverse has not yet materially contributed to results. For a detailed discussion of the Omniverse, please read my articleNVIDIA: Lord Of The Metaverse.NVDA's EPS grew 73% y/y in FY20 and is expected to grow another 74% in FY22 (FY ending January). By the end of this year, the company is expected to generate earnings per share ~200% higher than its 2019 earnings. Over the same period, the S&P 500's EPS grew 26%. Looking ahead, consensus EPS for NVDA's FY23 implies a 19% y/y growth rate, a number the company should easily beat given the strong momentum of its businesses and its long history of beating earnings estimates. However, even 19% is well above the S&P 500's expected 8% EPS growth in the same period.In addition, I believe NVDA's above-market EPS growth rate will be more sustainable than the average S&P 500 company, given its near-monopoly in discrete GPUs and the secular trends driving its business. Among the most important secular drivers is the rise of AI and the metaverse.RisksWe know NVIDIA has a near-monopoly in discrete GPUs, the dominant chip used to power gaming, accelerated computing, and AI. The company enjoys network effects, flywheel effects, platform dominance, and a superior R&D budget, putting it head and shoulders above competitors. Its primary end markets -- gaming, data center, and AI -- are also growing well above global GDP.In my view, the most significant risk for NVIDIA is regulatory and not competitive or market-based. I see two primary regulatory risks: anti-monopoly and geopolitics.First, the company's dominance and size make it a threat to market competition, likely resulting in regulatory pressures. NVIDIA could face regulatory risks similar to those experienced by Microsoft twenty years ago and by Meta Platforms, Apple, and Alphabet today.We already see early signs of government pressure on NVIDIA. For example, even US regulators object to the company's pending acquisition of ARM Holdings.Second, as a semiconductor company with significant China revenues, NVIDIA risks being caught in the cross-hair of the US-China semiconductor war.Revenue from billings to China, including Hong Kong, was 23% of NVIDIA's revenue for the fiscal year 2021. As the leader in AI, a key area of geopolitical contest, NVIDIA's risk of being caught in geopolitics is likely much greater than the average semiconductor company.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2446,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/696758927"}