XLMM
2022-01-14
That is some analysis!
Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target<blockquote>Palantir：为我的5美元目标价辩护</blockquote>
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With over 700 comments and a significant amount of (negative) feedback, I believe it is appropriate to share my thoughts on some of the most important questions I have received in this article. In terms of disclosure, I do not have a short position in Palantir and do not intend to open one. I simply believe that the company's stock is difficult, if not impossible, to justify based on the company's financials.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我回应读者对我最近的Palantir文章的反馈。</li><li>读者反馈分为四类：估值、公司亏损、护城河、可扩展性。</li><li>我袖手旁观我的断言，即Palantir被严重高估。</li></ul>我上一篇关于大数据公司的文章<b>帕兰蒂尔(PLTR)</b>引起了不小的轰动。有超过700条评论和大量的（负面）反馈，我认为分享我在这篇文章中收到的一些最重要的问题的想法是合适的。就披露而言，我没有Palantir的空头头寸，也不打算开设空头头寸。我只是认为，根据公司的财务状况，即使不是不可能，也很难证明公司的股票是合理的。</blockquote></p><p><b>My $5 Price Target For Palantir</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我对Palantir的目标价为5美元</b></blockquote></p><p>In my previous article, "Palantir: Fair Value Of $5," I claimed that the big-data company was fundamentally and unjustifiably overvalued. My reasoning was that a company that has been in business for as long as Palantir should have much better financials in place that look significantly better than what we see in the 10Q quarterly reports.</p><p><blockquote>在我之前的文章“Palantir：公允价值为5美元”中，我声称这家大数据公司从根本上被不合理地高估了。我的理由是，一家像Palantir一样经营时间长的公司应该拥有更好的财务状况，看起来比我们在第十季度报告中看到的要好得多。</blockquote></p><p>My main concern was Palantir's valuation, which requires buyers to pay a sales multiple of twenty. A P/E ratio of 20 would be considered high in normal and more sober times. Even allowing for Palantir's annual growth rate of 30%+, paying 20 times (expected) sales is still a bit of a stretch and requires a lot of faith that the sales growth will actually materialize. Even if it does, Palantir's valuation appears indefensible.</p><p><blockquote>我主要关心的是Palantir的估值，它要求买家支付20倍的销售额。在正常和更清醒的时候，20的市盈率被认为是很高的。即使考虑到Palantir 30%+的年增长率，支付（预期）销售额的20倍仍然有点牵强，并且需要对销售增长真正实现充满信心。即便如此，Palantir的估值似乎也站不住脚。</blockquote></p><p>I'd like to take this opportunity to address some of the feedback I received regarding the four areas where I received the most questions (valuation, company losses, moat and scalability).</p><p><blockquote>我想借此机会谈谈我收到的一些反馈，涉及我收到最多问题的四个领域（估值、公司亏损、护城河和可扩展性）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p>Many readers strongly disagreed with my assessment. The most common question I received centered on the idea that Palantir achieves significant revenue growth and that, as a result of this rapid growth, Palantir deserves a market capitalization of at least $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>许多读者强烈不同意我的评估。我收到的最常见的问题集中在Palantir实现显着的收入增长，并且由于这种快速增长，Palantir的市值至少应该达到100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>This argument ignores the fact that, for valuation purposes, the size of the revenue base is just as important as the rate of sales growth. I also don't deny that Palantir's revenue is rapidly increasing. According to the company's long-term sales forecast, the company is aiming for a 30% annual growth rate. Palantir's outlook was confirmed in the company's most recent quarterly earnings report, and the company expects 40% growth this year.</p><p><blockquote>这一论点忽略了一个事实，即就估值而言，收入基础的规模与销售增长率同样重要。我也不否认Palantir的收入正在迅速增长。根据公司的长期销售预测，公司的目标是30%的年增长率。Palantir的前景在该公司最新的季度财报中得到证实，该公司预计今年将增长40%。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir is rapidly expanding, but the revenue base must be considered alongside the sales growth rate for any sense to be made. If I run a business with $1 million in annual sales and double my sales every year, that doesn't mean the company "should be worth $10 billion." This conclusion cannot be reached without taking into account the dollar revenue base. While Palantir's revenue growth rate of 30% should not be overlooked, it is not 100%.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir正在迅速扩张，但收入基础必须与销售增长率一起考虑才能有任何意义。如果我经营一家年销售额为100万美元的企业，并且销售额每年翻一番，这并不意味着这家公司“应该价值100亿美元”。如果不考虑美元收入基础，就无法得出这一结论。虽然Palantir 30%的收入增长率不应被忽视，但它并不是100%。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir has a market capitalization of $34 billion, and the market expects revenue of $1.53 billion in 2021 and $1.99 billion in 2022. Here, the implied sales multiples are 22 (2021e) and 17 (2022e). Palantir's growth multiples are excessive and are at risk of further contraction. Paying around 20 times sales for a business, even if it is perfect, is more than a stretch; it may be a suicide mission.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的市值为340亿美元，市场预计2021年收入为15.3亿美元，2022年收入为19.9亿美元。这里，隐含的销售倍数为22（2021年预计）和17（2022年预计）。Palantir的增长倍数过高，面临进一步收缩的风险。为一项业务支付大约20倍销售额的费用，即使它是完美的，也不仅仅是一种延伸；这可能是一次自杀任务。</blockquote></p><p><b>IPO And Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首次公开发售及亏损</b></blockquote></p><p>In response to my previous article, I received a lot of feedback along the lines of "Palantir is investing money, and this money will come back later in terms of free cash flow," or "Palantir just had its IPO, and profits are not expected."</p><p><blockquote>针对我之前的文章，我收到了很多反馈，大意是“Palantir正在投资，这笔钱稍后会在自由现金流方面回来”，或者“Palantir刚刚进行了IPO，利润没有预期。”</blockquote></p><p>Both arguments, in my opinion, are flawed.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这两种观点都有缺陷。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir is not a young company that recently went public and is looking for capital to invest. Palantir has been in business since 2003 and has yet to make a profit. In fact, company insiders have taken advantage of the market's opportunity this year to sell a large number of Class A shares in 2021.This article, which is a must-read for any Palantir investor, delves deeper into the insider sales situation that has emerged this year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir并不是一家最近上市并正在寻找资本投资的年轻公司。Palantir自2003年开始营业，至今尚未盈利。事实上，公司内部人士已经利用今年市场的机会，在2021年大量抛售A类股票。这篇文章是任何Palantir投资者的必读之作，深入探讨了今年出现的内幕销售情况。</blockquote></p><p>In other words, insiders with equity stakes are cashing out by dumping shares on unsuspecting retail investors willing to pay 20 times sales for a loss-making company. That story has been told to me several times in my life.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，拥有股权的内部人士正在通过向毫无戒心的散户投资者抛售股票来套现，这些散户投资者愿意为一家亏损公司支付20倍的销售额。这个故事在我一生中已经被讲过好几次了。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir is not only losing money this year, as I explained in my previous article. Throughout its existence, the big-data company has suffered losses and accumulated losses at an alarming rate. Palantir's losses in 2021 are "only" $364 million. The loss may be much lower than last year by the end of September, but it is still a loss.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇文章中解释的那样，Palantir今年不仅亏损。在其存在的整个过程中，这家大数据公司一直在亏损，并以惊人的速度累积亏损。Palantir 2021年的亏损“仅”为3.64亿美元。到9月底亏损可能会大大低于去年，但仍然是亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>And, in business valuation, profits/losses should be just as important as sales forecast, which, in most cases, is positive. The point that I believe was overlooked in my previous Palantir article is that the company has $5.3 billion in accumulated losses. Accounting rules require an accumulated deficit to appear on a company's balance sheet and is deducted from stockholders' equity. It displays the total of a company's losses accumulated during its active period of operation. Palantir's accumulated deficits total $5.3 billion, compared to $7.6 billion in total paid-in capital. In layman's terms, Palantir has depleted 70% of its investor capital. That's a frightening figure.</p><p><blockquote>而且，在企业估值中，利润/亏损应该和销售预测一样重要，在大多数情况下，销售预测是积极的。我认为我之前的Palantir文章中忽略了一点，那就是该公司的累计亏损为53亿美元。会计规则要求累计赤字出现在公司的资产负债表上，并从股东权益中扣除。它显示公司在其活跃运营期间累计的损失总额。Palantir的累计赤字总额为53亿美元，而实收资本总额为76亿美元。通俗地说，Palantir已经耗尽了70%的投资者资本。那是一个可怕的数字。</blockquote></p><p>Concerning the statement "Palantir is investing in its growth and will recoup its investment later": Palantir has been stuck in this phase for nearly two decades, and the company is still not profitable. Shouldn't some of the money invested 10 or more years ago have already returned?</p><p><blockquote>关于“Palantir正在投资于其增长，并将在稍后收回投资”的说法：Palantir已经陷入这一阶段近二十年，公司仍然没有盈利。10年或更长时间前投资的一些钱不是应该已经有回报了吗？</blockquote></p><p>The magnitude of the company's accumulated deficit, as well as the incredibly long period of time, two decades, during which losses have accumulated, raise serious concerns about Palantir's capital allocation. How much credit would you or I qualify for if we went to a bank with a 20-year history of making business losses?</p><p><blockquote>该公司累计赤字的规模以及长达二十年的亏损累积时间令人难以置信，引发了人们对Palantir资本配置的严重担忧。如果我们去一家有20年商业亏损历史的银行，你或我有资格获得多少信贷？</blockquote></p><p><b>Moat</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河</b></blockquote></p><p>Questions have been raised about why I believe Palantir lacks a significant moat in its business, despite the fact that the company's clients include numerous government agencies. The implication here appears to be that Palantir's relationship network serves as a moat.</p><p><blockquote>有人质疑为什么我认为Palantir的业务缺乏重要的护城河，尽管该公司的客户包括众多政府机构。这里的含义似乎是Palantir的关系网络充当了护城河。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir works with a number of cash-rich government agencies that use the company's technology platforms across the board. I don't deny that Palantir's platforms, or "foundries," as the company refers to them, perform critical data management and analytics functions. Palantir was recently awarded contracts worth millions of dollars by the United States Army and the Space Systems Command. The Army contract is worth more than $800 million, while the Space Systems Command contract is worth $43 million.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir与许多现金充裕的政府机构合作，这些机构全面使用该公司的技术平台。我不否认Palantir的平台（或该公司所称的“代工厂”）执行关键的数据管理和分析功能。Palantir最近获得了美国陆军和太空系统司令部价值数百万美元的合同。陆军合同价值超过8亿美元，而太空系统司令部合同价值4300万美元。</blockquote></p><p>That being said, I do not deny that Palantir has been successful in obtaining contract awards. What I mean is that Palantir must go through competitive processes in order to win bids. Contracts are not awarded based on Palantir's "relationships" with the government. To be honest, this would be illegal. As a result, the notion that the company's relationships aid Palantir in the construction of a moat is false.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我并不否认Palantir成功获得了合同。我的意思是Palantir必须经过竞争流程才能中标。合同的授予不是基于Palantir与政府的“关系”。老实说，这是违法的。因此，认为该公司的关系有助于Palantir建立护城河的想法是错误的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Scalability</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可扩展性</b></blockquote></p><p>Some of the comments I received focused on Palantir's ability to capitalize on the big data revolution, as well as Palantir's scalability.</p><p><blockquote>我收到的一些评论集中在Palantir利用大数据革命的能力以及Palantir的可扩展性上。</blockquote></p><p>But where is this scalability, which is frequently mentioned as a reason to buy the stock?</p><p><blockquote>但这种经常被提及作为购买股票理由的可扩展性在哪里呢？</blockquote></p><p>Palantir has stated that it requires personnel to walk customers through the functionality of its foundries. Software that necessitates customer pilots is both time consuming and costly in terms of human resources. That is the inverse of "scale."<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64df144337f177af7f37125517af8d56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The ability to have decreasing marginal costs is a key feature of scalability. With a large enough customer base, marginal costs can be reduced to zero. This is not the case for Palantir, which must be available to clients to teach them the intricacies of the deployed platforms or walk them through new functionalities. Palantir, in my opinion, is more akin to an IT consulting firm that also sells software products. But I don't see real scalability with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir表示，它需要人员向客户介绍其代工厂的功能。就人力资源而言，需要客户试点的软件既耗时又昂贵。这是“规模”的倒数。降低边际成本的能力是可伸缩性的一个关键特征。有了足够大的客户群，边际成本可以降到零。Palantir的情况并非如此，它必须向客户提供所部署平台的复杂性或引导他们了解新功能。在我看来，Palantir更类似于一家同时销售软件产品的IT咨询公司。但我认为Palantir没有真正的可扩展性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir is not a profitable company. Palantir is heavily diluted. Insiders at Palantir are selling. Even with 30% annual revenue growth, Palantir's stock remains wildly overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一家盈利的公司。Palantir被严重稀释。Palantir的内部人士正在抛售。即使年收入增长30%，Palantir的股价仍然被严重高估。</blockquote></p><p>High-multiple stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have recently begun to consolidate, and more downside is on the way as investors become less willing to pay top dollar for businesses that have flown high but failed to meet high expectations.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率股票，尤其是科技行业的股票，最近开始盘整，随着投资者不太愿意为那些股价飞涨但未能达到高预期的企业支付高价，更多的下跌即将到来。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir's valuation is a huge issue, and despite the fact that the big-data company operates in a sexy industry with a lot of hype, the business fundamentals simply do not justify Palantir's market price.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的估值是一个巨大的问题，尽管这家大数据公司在一个被大肆宣传的性感行业运营，但业务基本面根本无法证明Palantir的市场价格是合理的。</blockquote></p><p><b>My Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的结论</b></blockquote></p><p>I'm not saying Palantir doesn't have significant annual sales growth. I'm not saying Palantir's products are useless to the government. What I am saying is that Palantir's loss-making business does not merit a sales multiple of 20. Even if it was profitable, it wouldn't deserve this kind of sales multiple.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说Palantir的年销售额没有显着增长。我并不是说Palantir的产品对政府毫无用处。我想说的是，Palantir的亏损业务不值得20倍的销售倍数。即使盈利，也不值得这样的销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>That's why I'm sticking to my $5 price target for Palantir. A $5 price target implies a $10 billion market valuation and a sales multiple of 5, which is still more than generous. Due to the persistence of business losses, an earnings multiple is unfortunately inapplicable here. I believe that the majority of the feedback was well-intentioned, but the bull case still has some serious flaws.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我坚持Palantir 5美元的目标价。5美元的目标价意味着100亿美元的市场估值和5的销售倍数，这仍然是非常慷慨的。由于业务损失的持续存在，不幸的是，市盈率在这里不适用。我相信大多数反馈都是善意的，但牛市案例仍然存在一些严重缺陷。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target<blockquote>Palantir：为我的5美元目标价辩护</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: A Defense Of My $5 Price Target<blockquote>Palantir：为我的5美元目标价辩护</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-14 10:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>I respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.</li><li>Reader feedback is divided into four categories: valuation, company losses, moat, and scalability.</li><li>I stand by my assertion that Palantir is highly overvalued.</li></ul>My previous article on the big-data company <b>Palantir (PLTR)</b>created quite a stir. With over 700 comments and a significant amount of (negative) feedback, I believe it is appropriate to share my thoughts on some of the most important questions I have received in this article. In terms of disclosure, I do not have a short position in Palantir and do not intend to open one. I simply believe that the company's stock is difficult, if not impossible, to justify based on the company's financials.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我回应读者对我最近的Palantir文章的反馈。</li><li>读者反馈分为四类：估值、公司亏损、护城河、可扩展性。</li><li>我袖手旁观我的断言，即Palantir被严重高估。</li></ul>我上一篇关于大数据公司的文章<b>帕兰蒂尔(PLTR)</b>引起了不小的轰动。有超过700条评论和大量的（负面）反馈，我认为分享我在这篇文章中收到的一些最重要的问题的想法是合适的。就披露而言，我没有Palantir的空头头寸，也不打算开设空头头寸。我只是认为，根据公司的财务状况，即使不是不可能，也很难证明公司的股票是合理的。</blockquote></p><p><b>My $5 Price Target For Palantir</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我对Palantir的目标价为5美元</b></blockquote></p><p>In my previous article, "Palantir: Fair Value Of $5," I claimed that the big-data company was fundamentally and unjustifiably overvalued. My reasoning was that a company that has been in business for as long as Palantir should have much better financials in place that look significantly better than what we see in the 10Q quarterly reports.</p><p><blockquote>在我之前的文章“Palantir：公允价值为5美元”中，我声称这家大数据公司从根本上被不合理地高估了。我的理由是，一家像Palantir一样经营时间长的公司应该拥有更好的财务状况，看起来比我们在第十季度报告中看到的要好得多。</blockquote></p><p>My main concern was Palantir's valuation, which requires buyers to pay a sales multiple of twenty. A P/E ratio of 20 would be considered high in normal and more sober times. Even allowing for Palantir's annual growth rate of 30%+, paying 20 times (expected) sales is still a bit of a stretch and requires a lot of faith that the sales growth will actually materialize. Even if it does, Palantir's valuation appears indefensible.</p><p><blockquote>我主要关心的是Palantir的估值，它要求买家支付20倍的销售额。在正常和更清醒的时候，20的市盈率被认为是很高的。即使考虑到Palantir 30%+的年增长率，支付（预期）销售额的20倍仍然有点牵强，并且需要对销售增长真正实现充满信心。即便如此，Palantir的估值似乎也站不住脚。</blockquote></p><p>I'd like to take this opportunity to address some of the feedback I received regarding the four areas where I received the most questions (valuation, company losses, moat and scalability).</p><p><blockquote>我想借此机会谈谈我收到的一些反馈，涉及我收到最多问题的四个领域（估值、公司亏损、护城河和可扩展性）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p>Many readers strongly disagreed with my assessment. The most common question I received centered on the idea that Palantir achieves significant revenue growth and that, as a result of this rapid growth, Palantir deserves a market capitalization of at least $10 billion.</p><p><blockquote>许多读者强烈不同意我的评估。我收到的最常见的问题集中在Palantir实现显着的收入增长，并且由于这种快速增长，Palantir的市值至少应该达到100亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>This argument ignores the fact that, for valuation purposes, the size of the revenue base is just as important as the rate of sales growth. I also don't deny that Palantir's revenue is rapidly increasing. According to the company's long-term sales forecast, the company is aiming for a 30% annual growth rate. Palantir's outlook was confirmed in the company's most recent quarterly earnings report, and the company expects 40% growth this year.</p><p><blockquote>这一论点忽略了一个事实，即就估值而言，收入基础的规模与销售增长率同样重要。我也不否认Palantir的收入正在迅速增长。根据公司的长期销售预测，公司的目标是30%的年增长率。Palantir的前景在该公司最新的季度财报中得到证实，该公司预计今年将增长40%。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir is rapidly expanding, but the revenue base must be considered alongside the sales growth rate for any sense to be made. If I run a business with $1 million in annual sales and double my sales every year, that doesn't mean the company "should be worth $10 billion." This conclusion cannot be reached without taking into account the dollar revenue base. While Palantir's revenue growth rate of 30% should not be overlooked, it is not 100%.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir正在迅速扩张，但收入基础必须与销售增长率一起考虑才能有任何意义。如果我经营一家年销售额为100万美元的企业，并且销售额每年翻一番，这并不意味着这家公司“应该价值100亿美元”。如果不考虑美元收入基础，就无法得出这一结论。虽然Palantir 30%的收入增长率不应被忽视，但它并不是100%。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir has a market capitalization of $34 billion, and the market expects revenue of $1.53 billion in 2021 and $1.99 billion in 2022. Here, the implied sales multiples are 22 (2021e) and 17 (2022e). Palantir's growth multiples are excessive and are at risk of further contraction. Paying around 20 times sales for a business, even if it is perfect, is more than a stretch; it may be a suicide mission.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的市值为340亿美元，市场预计2021年收入为15.3亿美元，2022年收入为19.9亿美元。这里，隐含的销售倍数为22（2021年预计）和17（2022年预计）。Palantir的增长倍数过高，面临进一步收缩的风险。为一项业务支付大约20倍销售额的费用，即使它是完美的，也不仅仅是一种延伸；这可能是一次自杀任务。</blockquote></p><p><b>IPO And Losses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首次公开发售及亏损</b></blockquote></p><p>In response to my previous article, I received a lot of feedback along the lines of "Palantir is investing money, and this money will come back later in terms of free cash flow," or "Palantir just had its IPO, and profits are not expected."</p><p><blockquote>针对我之前的文章，我收到了很多反馈，大意是“Palantir正在投资，这笔钱稍后会在自由现金流方面回来”，或者“Palantir刚刚进行了IPO，利润没有预期。”</blockquote></p><p>Both arguments, in my opinion, are flawed.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，这两种观点都有缺陷。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir is not a young company that recently went public and is looking for capital to invest. Palantir has been in business since 2003 and has yet to make a profit. In fact, company insiders have taken advantage of the market's opportunity this year to sell a large number of Class A shares in 2021.This article, which is a must-read for any Palantir investor, delves deeper into the insider sales situation that has emerged this year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir并不是一家最近上市并正在寻找资本投资的年轻公司。Palantir自2003年开始营业，至今尚未盈利。事实上，公司内部人士已经利用今年市场的机会，在2021年大量抛售A类股票。这篇文章是任何Palantir投资者的必读之作，深入探讨了今年出现的内幕销售情况。</blockquote></p><p>In other words, insiders with equity stakes are cashing out by dumping shares on unsuspecting retail investors willing to pay 20 times sales for a loss-making company. That story has been told to me several times in my life.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，拥有股权的内部人士正在通过向毫无戒心的散户投资者抛售股票来套现，这些散户投资者愿意为一家亏损公司支付20倍的销售额。这个故事在我一生中已经被讲过好几次了。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir is not only losing money this year, as I explained in my previous article. Throughout its existence, the big-data company has suffered losses and accumulated losses at an alarming rate. Palantir's losses in 2021 are "only" $364 million. The loss may be much lower than last year by the end of September, but it is still a loss.</p><p><blockquote>正如我在上一篇文章中解释的那样，Palantir今年不仅亏损。在其存在的整个过程中，这家大数据公司一直在亏损，并以惊人的速度累积亏损。Palantir 2021年的亏损“仅”为3.64亿美元。到9月底亏损可能会大大低于去年，但仍然是亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>And, in business valuation, profits/losses should be just as important as sales forecast, which, in most cases, is positive. The point that I believe was overlooked in my previous Palantir article is that the company has $5.3 billion in accumulated losses. Accounting rules require an accumulated deficit to appear on a company's balance sheet and is deducted from stockholders' equity. It displays the total of a company's losses accumulated during its active period of operation. Palantir's accumulated deficits total $5.3 billion, compared to $7.6 billion in total paid-in capital. In layman's terms, Palantir has depleted 70% of its investor capital. That's a frightening figure.</p><p><blockquote>而且，在企业估值中，利润/亏损应该和销售预测一样重要，在大多数情况下，销售预测是积极的。我认为我之前的Palantir文章中忽略了一点，那就是该公司的累计亏损为53亿美元。会计规则要求累计赤字出现在公司的资产负债表上，并从股东权益中扣除。它显示公司在其活跃运营期间累计的损失总额。Palantir的累计赤字总额为53亿美元，而实收资本总额为76亿美元。通俗地说，Palantir已经耗尽了70%的投资者资本。那是一个可怕的数字。</blockquote></p><p>Concerning the statement "Palantir is investing in its growth and will recoup its investment later": Palantir has been stuck in this phase for nearly two decades, and the company is still not profitable. Shouldn't some of the money invested 10 or more years ago have already returned?</p><p><blockquote>关于“Palantir正在投资于其增长，并将在稍后收回投资”的说法：Palantir已经陷入这一阶段近二十年，公司仍然没有盈利。10年或更长时间前投资的一些钱不是应该已经有回报了吗？</blockquote></p><p>The magnitude of the company's accumulated deficit, as well as the incredibly long period of time, two decades, during which losses have accumulated, raise serious concerns about Palantir's capital allocation. How much credit would you or I qualify for if we went to a bank with a 20-year history of making business losses?</p><p><blockquote>该公司累计赤字的规模以及长达二十年的亏损累积时间令人难以置信，引发了人们对Palantir资本配置的严重担忧。如果我们去一家有20年商业亏损历史的银行，你或我有资格获得多少信贷？</blockquote></p><p><b>Moat</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河</b></blockquote></p><p>Questions have been raised about why I believe Palantir lacks a significant moat in its business, despite the fact that the company's clients include numerous government agencies. The implication here appears to be that Palantir's relationship network serves as a moat.</p><p><blockquote>有人质疑为什么我认为Palantir的业务缺乏重要的护城河，尽管该公司的客户包括众多政府机构。这里的含义似乎是Palantir的关系网络充当了护城河。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir works with a number of cash-rich government agencies that use the company's technology platforms across the board. I don't deny that Palantir's platforms, or "foundries," as the company refers to them, perform critical data management and analytics functions. Palantir was recently awarded contracts worth millions of dollars by the United States Army and the Space Systems Command. The Army contract is worth more than $800 million, while the Space Systems Command contract is worth $43 million.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir与许多现金充裕的政府机构合作，这些机构全面使用该公司的技术平台。我不否认Palantir的平台（或该公司所称的“代工厂”）执行关键的数据管理和分析功能。Palantir最近获得了美国陆军和太空系统司令部价值数百万美元的合同。陆军合同价值超过8亿美元，而太空系统司令部合同价值4300万美元。</blockquote></p><p>That being said, I do not deny that Palantir has been successful in obtaining contract awards. What I mean is that Palantir must go through competitive processes in order to win bids. Contracts are not awarded based on Palantir's "relationships" with the government. To be honest, this would be illegal. As a result, the notion that the company's relationships aid Palantir in the construction of a moat is false.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我并不否认Palantir成功获得了合同。我的意思是Palantir必须经过竞争流程才能中标。合同的授予不是基于Palantir与政府的“关系”。老实说，这是违法的。因此，认为该公司的关系有助于Palantir建立护城河的想法是错误的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Scalability</b></p><p><blockquote><b>可扩展性</b></blockquote></p><p>Some of the comments I received focused on Palantir's ability to capitalize on the big data revolution, as well as Palantir's scalability.</p><p><blockquote>我收到的一些评论集中在Palantir利用大数据革命的能力以及Palantir的可扩展性上。</blockquote></p><p>But where is this scalability, which is frequently mentioned as a reason to buy the stock?</p><p><blockquote>但这种经常被提及作为购买股票理由的可扩展性在哪里呢？</blockquote></p><p>Palantir has stated that it requires personnel to walk customers through the functionality of its foundries. Software that necessitates customer pilots is both time consuming and costly in terms of human resources. That is the inverse of "scale."<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64df144337f177af7f37125517af8d56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"143\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>The ability to have decreasing marginal costs is a key feature of scalability. With a large enough customer base, marginal costs can be reduced to zero. This is not the case for Palantir, which must be available to clients to teach them the intricacies of the deployed platforms or walk them through new functionalities. Palantir, in my opinion, is more akin to an IT consulting firm that also sells software products. But I don't see real scalability with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir表示，它需要人员向客户介绍其代工厂的功能。就人力资源而言，需要客户试点的软件既耗时又昂贵。这是“规模”的倒数。降低边际成本的能力是可伸缩性的一个关键特征。有了足够大的客户群，边际成本可以降到零。Palantir的情况并非如此，它必须向客户提供所部署平台的复杂性或引导他们了解新功能。在我看来，Palantir更类似于一家同时销售软件产品的IT咨询公司。但我认为Palantir没有真正的可扩展性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir is not a profitable company. Palantir is heavily diluted. Insiders at Palantir are selling. Even with 30% annual revenue growth, Palantir's stock remains wildly overpriced.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一家盈利的公司。Palantir被严重稀释。Palantir的内部人士正在抛售。即使年收入增长30%，Palantir的股价仍然被严重高估。</blockquote></p><p>High-multiple stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have recently begun to consolidate, and more downside is on the way as investors become less willing to pay top dollar for businesses that have flown high but failed to meet high expectations.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率股票，尤其是科技行业的股票，最近开始盘整，随着投资者不太愿意为那些股价飞涨但未能达到高预期的企业支付高价，更多的下跌即将到来。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir's valuation is a huge issue, and despite the fact that the big-data company operates in a sexy industry with a lot of hype, the business fundamentals simply do not justify Palantir's market price.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的估值是一个巨大的问题，尽管这家大数据公司在一个被大肆宣传的性感行业运营，但业务基本面根本无法证明Palantir的市场价格是合理的。</blockquote></p><p><b>My Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的结论</b></blockquote></p><p>I'm not saying Palantir doesn't have significant annual sales growth. I'm not saying Palantir's products are useless to the government. What I am saying is that Palantir's loss-making business does not merit a sales multiple of 20. Even if it was profitable, it wouldn't deserve this kind of sales multiple.</p><p><blockquote>我并不是说Palantir的年销售额没有显着增长。我并不是说Palantir的产品对政府毫无用处。我想说的是，Palantir的亏损业务不值得20倍的销售倍数。即使盈利，也不值得这样的销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>That's why I'm sticking to my $5 price target for Palantir. A $5 price target implies a $10 billion market valuation and a sales multiple of 5, which is still more than generous. Due to the persistence of business losses, an earnings multiple is unfortunately inapplicable here. I believe that the majority of the feedback was well-intentioned, but the bull case still has some serious flaws.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我坚持Palantir 5美元的目标价。5美元的目标价意味着100亿美元的市场估值和5的销售倍数，这仍然是非常慷慨的。由于业务损失的持续存在，不幸的是，市盈率在这里不适用。我相信大多数反馈都是善意的，但牛市案例仍然存在一些严重缺陷。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479466-palantir-a-defense-of-my-5-price-target\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479466-palantir-a-defense-of-my-5-price-target","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189278661","content_text":"SummaryI respond to reader feedback on my most recent Palantir article.Reader feedback is divided into four categories: valuation, company losses, moat, and scalability.I stand by my assertion that Palantir is highly overvalued.My previous article on the big-data company Palantir (PLTR)created quite a stir. With over 700 comments and a significant amount of (negative) feedback, I believe it is appropriate to share my thoughts on some of the most important questions I have received in this article. In terms of disclosure, I do not have a short position in Palantir and do not intend to open one. I simply believe that the company's stock is difficult, if not impossible, to justify based on the company's financials.My $5 Price Target For PalantirIn my previous article, \"Palantir: Fair Value Of $5,\" I claimed that the big-data company was fundamentally and unjustifiably overvalued. My reasoning was that a company that has been in business for as long as Palantir should have much better financials in place that look significantly better than what we see in the 10Q quarterly reports.My main concern was Palantir's valuation, which requires buyers to pay a sales multiple of twenty. A P/E ratio of 20 would be considered high in normal and more sober times. Even allowing for Palantir's annual growth rate of 30%+, paying 20 times (expected) sales is still a bit of a stretch and requires a lot of faith that the sales growth will actually materialize. Even if it does, Palantir's valuation appears indefensible.I'd like to take this opportunity to address some of the feedback I received regarding the four areas where I received the most questions (valuation, company losses, moat and scalability).ValuationMany readers strongly disagreed with my assessment. The most common question I received centered on the idea that Palantir achieves significant revenue growth and that, as a result of this rapid growth, Palantir deserves a market capitalization of at least $10 billion.This argument ignores the fact that, for valuation purposes, the size of the revenue base is just as important as the rate of sales growth. I also don't deny that Palantir's revenue is rapidly increasing. According to the company's long-term sales forecast, the company is aiming for a 30% annual growth rate. Palantir's outlook was confirmed in the company's most recent quarterly earnings report, and the company expects 40% growth this year.Palantir is rapidly expanding, but the revenue base must be considered alongside the sales growth rate for any sense to be made. If I run a business with $1 million in annual sales and double my sales every year, that doesn't mean the company \"should be worth $10 billion.\" This conclusion cannot be reached without taking into account the dollar revenue base. While Palantir's revenue growth rate of 30% should not be overlooked, it is not 100%.Palantir has a market capitalization of $34 billion, and the market expects revenue of $1.53 billion in 2021 and $1.99 billion in 2022. Here, the implied sales multiples are 22 (2021e) and 17 (2022e). Palantir's growth multiples are excessive and are at risk of further contraction. Paying around 20 times sales for a business, even if it is perfect, is more than a stretch; it may be a suicide mission.IPO And LossesIn response to my previous article, I received a lot of feedback along the lines of \"Palantir is investing money, and this money will come back later in terms of free cash flow,\" or \"Palantir just had its IPO, and profits are not expected.\"Both arguments, in my opinion, are flawed.Palantir is not a young company that recently went public and is looking for capital to invest. Palantir has been in business since 2003 and has yet to make a profit. In fact, company insiders have taken advantage of the market's opportunity this year to sell a large number of Class A shares in 2021.This article, which is a must-read for any Palantir investor, delves deeper into the insider sales situation that has emerged this year.In other words, insiders with equity stakes are cashing out by dumping shares on unsuspecting retail investors willing to pay 20 times sales for a loss-making company. That story has been told to me several times in my life.Palantir is not only losing money this year, as I explained in my previous article. Throughout its existence, the big-data company has suffered losses and accumulated losses at an alarming rate. Palantir's losses in 2021 are \"only\" $364 million. The loss may be much lower than last year by the end of September, but it is still a loss.And, in business valuation, profits/losses should be just as important as sales forecast, which, in most cases, is positive. The point that I believe was overlooked in my previous Palantir article is that the company has $5.3 billion in accumulated losses. Accounting rules require an accumulated deficit to appear on a company's balance sheet and is deducted from stockholders' equity. It displays the total of a company's losses accumulated during its active period of operation. Palantir's accumulated deficits total $5.3 billion, compared to $7.6 billion in total paid-in capital. In layman's terms, Palantir has depleted 70% of its investor capital. That's a frightening figure.Concerning the statement \"Palantir is investing in its growth and will recoup its investment later\": Palantir has been stuck in this phase for nearly two decades, and the company is still not profitable. Shouldn't some of the money invested 10 or more years ago have already returned?The magnitude of the company's accumulated deficit, as well as the incredibly long period of time, two decades, during which losses have accumulated, raise serious concerns about Palantir's capital allocation. How much credit would you or I qualify for if we went to a bank with a 20-year history of making business losses?MoatQuestions have been raised about why I believe Palantir lacks a significant moat in its business, despite the fact that the company's clients include numerous government agencies. The implication here appears to be that Palantir's relationship network serves as a moat.Palantir works with a number of cash-rich government agencies that use the company's technology platforms across the board. I don't deny that Palantir's platforms, or \"foundries,\" as the company refers to them, perform critical data management and analytics functions. Palantir was recently awarded contracts worth millions of dollars by the United States Army and the Space Systems Command. The Army contract is worth more than $800 million, while the Space Systems Command contract is worth $43 million.That being said, I do not deny that Palantir has been successful in obtaining contract awards. What I mean is that Palantir must go through competitive processes in order to win bids. Contracts are not awarded based on Palantir's \"relationships\" with the government. To be honest, this would be illegal. As a result, the notion that the company's relationships aid Palantir in the construction of a moat is false.ScalabilitySome of the comments I received focused on Palantir's ability to capitalize on the big data revolution, as well as Palantir's scalability.But where is this scalability, which is frequently mentioned as a reason to buy the stock?Palantir has stated that it requires personnel to walk customers through the functionality of its foundries. Software that necessitates customer pilots is both time consuming and costly in terms of human resources. That is the inverse of \"scale.\"The ability to have decreasing marginal costs is a key feature of scalability. With a large enough customer base, marginal costs can be reduced to zero. This is not the case for Palantir, which must be available to clients to teach them the intricacies of the deployed platforms or walk them through new functionalities. Palantir, in my opinion, is more akin to an IT consulting firm that also sells software products. But I don't see real scalability with Palantir.RisksPalantir is not a profitable company. Palantir is heavily diluted. Insiders at Palantir are selling. Even with 30% annual revenue growth, Palantir's stock remains wildly overpriced.High-multiple stocks, particularly in the technology sector, have recently begun to consolidate, and more downside is on the way as investors become less willing to pay top dollar for businesses that have flown high but failed to meet high expectations.Palantir's valuation is a huge issue, and despite the fact that the big-data company operates in a sexy industry with a lot of hype, the business fundamentals simply do not justify Palantir's market price.My ConclusionI'm not saying Palantir doesn't have significant annual sales growth. I'm not saying Palantir's products are useless to the government. What I am saying is that Palantir's loss-making business does not merit a sales multiple of 20. Even if it was profitable, it wouldn't deserve this kind of sales multiple.That's why I'm sticking to my $5 price target for Palantir. A $5 price target implies a $10 billion market valuation and a sales multiple of 5, which is still more than generous. Due to the persistence of business losses, an earnings multiple is unfortunately inapplicable here. I believe that the majority of the feedback was well-intentioned, but the bull case still has some serious flaws.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1662,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/694754183"}
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