HH浩
2021-12-21
Thanks for recommending
UiPath: Time To Buy The Automation Company<blockquote>UiPath：是时候收购这家自动化公司了</blockquote>
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PATH is now trading below its IPO price in spite of having materially grown its underlying business over that time period. I have previously expressed cautiousness based on valuation, but my concerns have subsided amidst the tech volatility. I rate shares a buy based on the attractiveness of the underlying growth story and reasonable valuation.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath(PATH)是过去几个月估值迅速下降的“Cathie Wood”股票之一（占所有Ark基金的3.5%）。尽管PATH的基础业务在此期间大幅增长，但目前的交易价格仍低于IPO价格。我此前曾基于估值表达过谨慎态度，但在科技股波动中，我的担忧已经消退。我根据潜在增长故事的吸引力和合理的估值将股票评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PATH Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>路径股价</b></blockquote></p><p> After pricing its initial offering at $56 per share and closing that day 23% higher, PATH peaked then headed on a straight downward trajectory to its current $41 price, which is notably below the IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>PATH peaked最初发行价格为每股56美元，当天收盘上涨23%，然后一路直线下行，达到目前的41美元价格，明显低于IPO价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df4cbd9ca8798d0f4c199af611cced2a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Like many other tech peers, the recent volatility has shined a spotlight on the promising story stocks which were largely ignored by Wall Street veterans due to their bubbly valuations. Now, those stocks, like PATH, suddenly are trading at much more reasonable valuations, with many in clear buyable territory.</p><p><blockquote>与许多其他科技同行一样，最近的波动让人们关注有前途的故事股票，这些股票由于估值泡沫而在很大程度上被华尔街资深人士忽视。现在，像PATH这样的股票突然以更加合理的估值交易，许多股票都处于明确的可买入区域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>UiPath Stock Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>UiPath股票收益</b></blockquote></p><p> PATH was able to show strong growth in the latest quarter, with annual recurring revenue (‘ARR’) growing at a 58% clip. While this is a deceleration from the 62% average growth rate since the end of 2020, it nonetheless is a very impressive achievement.</p><p><blockquote>PATH在最近一个季度表现出强劲增长，年度经常性收入(“ARR”)增长了58%。虽然这比2020年底以来62%的平均增长率有所放缓，但这仍然是一个非常令人印象深刻的成就。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf748b8a08bef78bd5e9cfec7a459bea\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company also saw non-GAAP operating margins rise sequentially from 3% to 4%. This is the third consecutive quarter of non-GAAP profitability, and the company expects to complete the year with another profitable quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的非GAAP营业利润率也从上一季度的3%上升至4%。这是连续第三个季度实现非公认会计准则盈利，该公司预计今年将再出现一个盈利季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f7753be5e162ae44762a40cab95551d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this technically does not constitute “true” profitability, as non-GAAP results ignore the hefty stock-based compensation, the company undoubtedly benefits from its free cash flow positive profile. I expect free cash flow to rise steadily over the coming years as operating leverage takes hold. The 56% projected ARR growth is solid and does not reflect the same deceleration seen at many other tech peers.</p><p><blockquote>虽然从技术上讲，这并不构成“真正的”盈利能力，因为非公认会计准则结果忽略了巨额股票薪酬，但该公司无疑受益于其积极的自由现金流状况。我预计随着运营杠杆的发挥，未来几年自由现金流将稳步上升。预计ARR增长56%是稳健的，并没有反映出许多其他科技同行同样的减速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue or Annualized Recurring Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入或年化经常性收入</b></blockquote></p><p> With PATH, it is worth discussing that the company wants Wall Street to look at ARR instead of revenue. What is the difference? ARR is calculated as taking total subscription revenues, dividing by term length, and multiplying by 365. Revenues, on the other hand, differs in that license revenues are recognized in the first year, since that is technically when the “product” is delivered. We can see below an example of this difference in action.</p><p><blockquote>对于PATH，值得讨论的是，该公司希望华尔街关注ARR而不是收入。有什么区别？ARR的计算方法是将总订阅收入除以期限长度，再乘以365。另一方面，收入的不同之处在于许可收入在第一年确认，因为从技术上讲，这是“产品”交付的时间。我们可以在下面看到这种差异的一个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c03d3420137a1907d9ada444e7152ca\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see above, normal revenue would see growth drop off in subsequent years since all of the associated revenues would have only been recognized in the first year. In ARR, on the other hand, the revenue gets evenly distributed across its term, hence the term “annual recurring revenue.” I expect there to be a substantial discrepancy between revenue growth and ARR growth, which much of Wall Street might be quick to misinterpret as a deterioration in the business (but something that the reader will understand to be irrelevant).</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在上面看到的，正常收入在随后几年的增长会下降，因为所有相关收入仅在第一年确认。另一方面，在ARR中，收入在其期限内平均分配，因此有“年度经常性收入”一词。我预计收入增长和ARR增长之间会存在巨大差异，华尔街的许多人可能会很快将其误解为业务恶化（但读者会认为这是无关紧要的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is PATH Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PATH股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Previously in the year, I expressed cautiousness on the name as the valuations remained steep in comparison with the risk profile. Many investors tend to grow pessimistic when stocks fall so aggressively. It is tempting to think that something is wrong in PATH’s business to warrant or even justify the steep declines. Yet that is not the case and we must remember that it is only the valuation of PATH that has been impaired - or improved for the better. PATH is ranked as the clear leader in robotic process automation (‘RPA’).</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，我对这个名字表示谨慎，因为与风险状况相比，估值仍然很高。当股市大幅下跌时，许多投资者往往会变得悲观。人们很容易认为PATH的业务存在问题，以证明甚至证明其大幅下滑是合理的。然而，事实并非如此，我们必须记住，只有PATH的价值受到了损害——或者变得更好。PATH被评为机器人过程自动化（“RPA”）领域的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e140b7bc2cf79e9eec67ed5f41ad7468\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"581\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I consider RPA to be a strong secular growth story because of humans’ incessant pursuit of efficiency. There are so many human tasks that can be automated and doing so helps improve both accuracy and save costs. As a result, I think Wall Street consensus for around 30% growth over the next few years is reasonable if not potentially conservative.</p><p><blockquote>我认为RPA是一个强劲的长期增长故事，因为人类对效率的不断追求。有如此多的人工任务可以自动化，这样做有助于提高准确性和节省成本。因此，我认为华尔街对未来几年增长30%左右的共识即使不是潜在的保守，也是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afd9cd69cb3b89bc1823e04a93542a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PATH is the kind of stock that I could see trading at a 2x price to earnings growth ratio (‘PEG’) due to the attractive secular growth tailwinds discussed above. Assuming 40% long term net margins, PATH is currently trading at a 1.5x PEG ratio, which may allow for some multiple expansion in addition to robust growth rates. I note that PATH has $1.8 billion in net cash, which is somewhat significant considering the $21.7 billion market cap. The company’s free cash flow positive profile may enable a share repurchase program, although I find it unlikely considering the slim 5% FCF margin. One key risk is that PATH is not as cheap as other high quality peers and thus may be ever-vulnerable to further downside. Another important risk is the potential for the company to not achieve my expected profit margins. However, PATH can be considered lower risk than cash guzzling peers, making it easier to buy the stock at these multiples. I rate shares a buy with moderate 25% to 30% upside - I expect that shareholders can achieve returns resembling underlying growth but while maintaining the current PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>由于上面讨论的有吸引力的长期增长推动力，我可以看到PATH是那种以2倍市盈率(“PEG”)交易的股票。假设长期净利润率为40%，PATH目前的PEG比率为1.5倍，除了强劲的增长率之外，这可能还允许一些倍数扩张。我注意到PATH拥有18亿美元的净现金，考虑到217亿美元的市值，这有点重要。该公司积极的自由现金流状况可能会支持股票回购计划，尽管考虑到5%的自由现金流利润率微薄，我认为这不太可能。一个关键风险是PATH不像其他高质量同行那么便宜，因此可能很容易受到进一步下跌的影响。另一个重要的风险是公司可能无法达到我预期的利润率。然而，PATH可以被认为比消耗现金的同行风险更低，因此更容易以这些市盈率购买股票。我将股票评级为买入，有25%至30%的适度上涨空间——我预计股东可以实现类似于潜在增长的回报，但同时维持当前的PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UiPath: Time To Buy The Automation Company<blockquote>UiPath：是时候收购这家自动化公司了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUiPath: Time To Buy The Automation Company<blockquote>UiPath：是时候收购这家自动化公司了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 16:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>UiPath is the leader in robotic process automation, which is a promising market with strong growth tailwinds.</li> <li>The company grew ARR at a 58% clip in the latest quarter.</li> <li>Guidance for the next quarter was robust, but underappreciated due to the stock having traded much higher earlier.</li> <li>I rate shares a buy as one of the more attractive growth stories today.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22e8aa8ed08d7e93bcccc31e839fe813\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Anawat_s/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>UiPath是机器人过程自动化领域的领导者，这是一个前景广阔、增长强劲的市场。</li><li>该公司最近一个季度的ARR增长了58%。</li><li>下一季度的指引强劲，但由于该股早些时候的交易价格高得多，因此被低估。</li><li>我将股票评级为买入，作为当今最具吸引力的增长故事之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Anawat_s/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> UiPath (PATH) is one of those “Cathie Wood” stocks (it makes up 3.5% of all Ark funds) that have seen their valuations stripped quickly over the past few months. PATH is now trading below its IPO price in spite of having materially grown its underlying business over that time period. I have previously expressed cautiousness based on valuation, but my concerns have subsided amidst the tech volatility. I rate shares a buy based on the attractiveness of the underlying growth story and reasonable valuation.</p><p><blockquote>UiPath(PATH)是过去几个月估值迅速下降的“Cathie Wood”股票之一（占所有Ark基金的3.5%）。尽管PATH的基础业务在此期间大幅增长，但目前的交易价格仍低于IPO价格。我此前曾基于估值表达过谨慎态度，但在科技股波动中，我的担忧已经消退。我根据潜在增长故事的吸引力和合理的估值将股票评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PATH Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>路径股价</b></blockquote></p><p> After pricing its initial offering at $56 per share and closing that day 23% higher, PATH peaked then headed on a straight downward trajectory to its current $41 price, which is notably below the IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>PATH peaked最初发行价格为每股56美元，当天收盘上涨23%，然后一路直线下行，达到目前的41美元价格，明显低于IPO价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df4cbd9ca8798d0f4c199af611cced2a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Like many other tech peers, the recent volatility has shined a spotlight on the promising story stocks which were largely ignored by Wall Street veterans due to their bubbly valuations. Now, those stocks, like PATH, suddenly are trading at much more reasonable valuations, with many in clear buyable territory.</p><p><blockquote>与许多其他科技同行一样，最近的波动让人们关注有前途的故事股票，这些股票由于估值泡沫而在很大程度上被华尔街资深人士忽视。现在，像PATH这样的股票突然以更加合理的估值交易，许多股票都处于明确的可买入区域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>UiPath Stock Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>UiPath股票收益</b></blockquote></p><p> PATH was able to show strong growth in the latest quarter, with annual recurring revenue (‘ARR’) growing at a 58% clip. While this is a deceleration from the 62% average growth rate since the end of 2020, it nonetheless is a very impressive achievement.</p><p><blockquote>PATH在最近一个季度表现出强劲增长，年度经常性收入(“ARR”)增长了58%。虽然这比2020年底以来62%的平均增长率有所放缓，但这仍然是一个非常令人印象深刻的成就。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf748b8a08bef78bd5e9cfec7a459bea\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"612\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company also saw non-GAAP operating margins rise sequentially from 3% to 4%. This is the third consecutive quarter of non-GAAP profitability, and the company expects to complete the year with another profitable quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的非GAAP营业利润率也从上一季度的3%上升至4%。这是连续第三个季度实现非公认会计准则盈利，该公司预计今年将再出现一个盈利季度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f7753be5e162ae44762a40cab95551d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this technically does not constitute “true” profitability, as non-GAAP results ignore the hefty stock-based compensation, the company undoubtedly benefits from its free cash flow positive profile. I expect free cash flow to rise steadily over the coming years as operating leverage takes hold. The 56% projected ARR growth is solid and does not reflect the same deceleration seen at many other tech peers.</p><p><blockquote>虽然从技术上讲，这并不构成“真正的”盈利能力，因为非公认会计准则结果忽略了巨额股票薪酬，但该公司无疑受益于其积极的自由现金流状况。我预计随着运营杠杆的发挥，未来几年自由现金流将稳步上升。预计ARR增长56%是稳健的，并没有反映出许多其他科技同行同样的减速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue or Annualized Recurring Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入或年化经常性收入</b></blockquote></p><p> With PATH, it is worth discussing that the company wants Wall Street to look at ARR instead of revenue. What is the difference? ARR is calculated as taking total subscription revenues, dividing by term length, and multiplying by 365. Revenues, on the other hand, differs in that license revenues are recognized in the first year, since that is technically when the “product” is delivered. We can see below an example of this difference in action.</p><p><blockquote>对于PATH，值得讨论的是，该公司希望华尔街关注ARR而不是收入。有什么区别？ARR的计算方法是将总订阅收入除以期限长度，再乘以365。另一方面，收入的不同之处在于许可收入在第一年确认，因为从技术上讲，这是“产品”交付的时间。我们可以在下面看到这种差异的一个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c03d3420137a1907d9ada444e7152ca\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"552\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see above, normal revenue would see growth drop off in subsequent years since all of the associated revenues would have only been recognized in the first year. In ARR, on the other hand, the revenue gets evenly distributed across its term, hence the term “annual recurring revenue.” I expect there to be a substantial discrepancy between revenue growth and ARR growth, which much of Wall Street might be quick to misinterpret as a deterioration in the business (but something that the reader will understand to be irrelevant).</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在上面看到的，正常收入在随后几年的增长会下降，因为所有相关收入仅在第一年确认。另一方面，在ARR中，收入在其期限内平均分配，因此有“年度经常性收入”一词。我预计收入增长和ARR增长之间会存在巨大差异，华尔街的许多人可能会很快将其误解为业务恶化（但读者会认为这是无关紧要的）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is PATH Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PATH股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Previously in the year, I expressed cautiousness on the name as the valuations remained steep in comparison with the risk profile. Many investors tend to grow pessimistic when stocks fall so aggressively. It is tempting to think that something is wrong in PATH’s business to warrant or even justify the steep declines. Yet that is not the case and we must remember that it is only the valuation of PATH that has been impaired - or improved for the better. PATH is ranked as the clear leader in robotic process automation (‘RPA’).</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，我对这个名字表示谨慎，因为与风险状况相比，估值仍然很高。当股市大幅下跌时，许多投资者往往会变得悲观。人们很容易认为PATH的业务存在问题，以证明甚至证明其大幅下滑是合理的。然而，事实并非如此，我们必须记住，只有PATH的价值受到了损害——或者变得更好。PATH被评为机器人过程自动化（“RPA”）领域的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e140b7bc2cf79e9eec67ed5f41ad7468\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"581\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> I consider RPA to be a strong secular growth story because of humans’ incessant pursuit of efficiency. There are so many human tasks that can be automated and doing so helps improve both accuracy and save costs. As a result, I think Wall Street consensus for around 30% growth over the next few years is reasonable if not potentially conservative.</p><p><blockquote>我认为RPA是一个强劲的长期增长故事，因为人类对效率的不断追求。有如此多的人工任务可以自动化，这样做有助于提高准确性和节省成本。因此，我认为华尔街对未来几年增长30%左右的共识即使不是潜在的保守，也是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afd9cd69cb3b89bc1823e04a93542a8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PATH is the kind of stock that I could see trading at a 2x price to earnings growth ratio (‘PEG’) due to the attractive secular growth tailwinds discussed above. Assuming 40% long term net margins, PATH is currently trading at a 1.5x PEG ratio, which may allow for some multiple expansion in addition to robust growth rates. I note that PATH has $1.8 billion in net cash, which is somewhat significant considering the $21.7 billion market cap. The company’s free cash flow positive profile may enable a share repurchase program, although I find it unlikely considering the slim 5% FCF margin. One key risk is that PATH is not as cheap as other high quality peers and thus may be ever-vulnerable to further downside. Another important risk is the potential for the company to not achieve my expected profit margins. However, PATH can be considered lower risk than cash guzzling peers, making it easier to buy the stock at these multiples. I rate shares a buy with moderate 25% to 30% upside - I expect that shareholders can achieve returns resembling underlying growth but while maintaining the current PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>由于上面讨论的有吸引力的长期增长推动力，我可以看到PATH是那种以2倍市盈率(“PEG”)交易的股票。假设长期净利润率为40%，PATH目前的PEG比率为1.5倍，除了强劲的增长率之外，这可能还允许一些倍数扩张。我注意到PATH拥有18亿美元的净现金，考虑到217亿美元的市值，这有点重要。该公司积极的自由现金流状况可能会支持股票回购计划，尽管考虑到5%的自由现金流利润率微薄，我认为这不太可能。一个关键风险是PATH不像其他高质量同行那么便宜，因此可能很容易受到进一步下跌的影响。另一个重要的风险是公司可能无法达到我预期的利润率。然而，PATH可以被认为比消耗现金的同行风险更低，因此更容易以这些市盈率购买股票。我将股票评级为买入，有25%至30%的适度上涨空间——我预计股东可以实现类似于潜在增长的回报，但同时维持当前的PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476061-uipath-time-to-buy-the-automation-company\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PATH":"UiPath"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476061-uipath-time-to-buy-the-automation-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187118079","content_text":"Summary\n\nUiPath is the leader in robotic process automation, which is a promising market with strong growth tailwinds.\nThe company grew ARR at a 58% clip in the latest quarter.\nGuidance for the next quarter was robust, but underappreciated due to the stock having traded much higher earlier.\nI rate shares a buy as one of the more attractive growth stories today.\n\nAnawat_s/iStock via Getty Images\nUiPath (PATH) is one of those “Cathie Wood” stocks (it makes up 3.5% of all Ark funds) that have seen their valuations stripped quickly over the past few months. PATH is now trading below its IPO price in spite of having materially grown its underlying business over that time period. I have previously expressed cautiousness based on valuation, but my concerns have subsided amidst the tech volatility. I rate shares a buy based on the attractiveness of the underlying growth story and reasonable valuation.\nPATH Stock Price\nAfter pricing its initial offering at $56 per share and closing that day 23% higher, PATH peaked then headed on a straight downward trajectory to its current $41 price, which is notably below the IPO price.\n\nLike many other tech peers, the recent volatility has shined a spotlight on the promising story stocks which were largely ignored by Wall Street veterans due to their bubbly valuations. Now, those stocks, like PATH, suddenly are trading at much more reasonable valuations, with many in clear buyable territory.\nUiPath Stock Earnings\nPATH was able to show strong growth in the latest quarter, with annual recurring revenue (‘ARR’) growing at a 58% clip. While this is a deceleration from the 62% average growth rate since the end of 2020, it nonetheless is a very impressive achievement.\nInvestor Presentation\nThe company also saw non-GAAP operating margins rise sequentially from 3% to 4%. This is the third consecutive quarter of non-GAAP profitability, and the company expects to complete the year with another profitable quarter.\nInvestor Presentation\nWhile this technically does not constitute “true” profitability, as non-GAAP results ignore the hefty stock-based compensation, the company undoubtedly benefits from its free cash flow positive profile. I expect free cash flow to rise steadily over the coming years as operating leverage takes hold. The 56% projected ARR growth is solid and does not reflect the same deceleration seen at many other tech peers.\nRevenue or Annualized Recurring Revenue\nWith PATH, it is worth discussing that the company wants Wall Street to look at ARR instead of revenue. What is the difference? ARR is calculated as taking total subscription revenues, dividing by term length, and multiplying by 365. Revenues, on the other hand, differs in that license revenues are recognized in the first year, since that is technically when the “product” is delivered. We can see below an example of this difference in action.\nInvestor Presentation\nAs we can see above, normal revenue would see growth drop off in subsequent years since all of the associated revenues would have only been recognized in the first year. In ARR, on the other hand, the revenue gets evenly distributed across its term, hence the term “annual recurring revenue.” I expect there to be a substantial discrepancy between revenue growth and ARR growth, which much of Wall Street might be quick to misinterpret as a deterioration in the business (but something that the reader will understand to be irrelevant).\nIs PATH Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?\nPreviously in the year, I expressed cautiousness on the name as the valuations remained steep in comparison with the risk profile. Many investors tend to grow pessimistic when stocks fall so aggressively. It is tempting to think that something is wrong in PATH’s business to warrant or even justify the steep declines. Yet that is not the case and we must remember that it is only the valuation of PATH that has been impaired - or improved for the better. PATH is ranked as the clear leader in robotic process automation (‘RPA’).\n\nI consider RPA to be a strong secular growth story because of humans’ incessant pursuit of efficiency. There are so many human tasks that can be automated and doing so helps improve both accuracy and save costs. As a result, I think Wall Street consensus for around 30% growth over the next few years is reasonable if not potentially conservative.\nSeeking Alpha\nPATH is the kind of stock that I could see trading at a 2x price to earnings growth ratio (‘PEG’) due to the attractive secular growth tailwinds discussed above. Assuming 40% long term net margins, PATH is currently trading at a 1.5x PEG ratio, which may allow for some multiple expansion in addition to robust growth rates. I note that PATH has $1.8 billion in net cash, which is somewhat significant considering the $21.7 billion market cap. The company’s free cash flow positive profile may enable a share repurchase program, although I find it unlikely considering the slim 5% FCF margin. One key risk is that PATH is not as cheap as other high quality peers and thus may be ever-vulnerable to further downside. Another important risk is the potential for the company to not achieve my expected profit margins. However, PATH can be considered lower risk than cash guzzling peers, making it easier to buy the stock at these multiples. I rate shares a buy with moderate 25% to 30% upside - I expect that shareholders can achieve returns resembling underlying growth but while maintaining the current PEG ratio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PATH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2874,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/693794684"}
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