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2021-12-20
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Why inflation and the U.S. policy response will be key for markets in 2022<blockquote>为什么通胀和美国政策反应将是2022年市场的关键</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":693388493,"tweetId":"693388493","gmtCreate":1639971179809,"gmtModify":1639971179809,"author":{"id":3582126034262927,"idStr":"3582126034262927","authorId":3582126034262927,"authorIdStr":"3582126034262927","name":"TAN PS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0d84dc68e395bfc24b888753e86fdb","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Ok</p></body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693388493","repostId":2192039709,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2192039709","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639970366,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2192039709?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 11:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why inflation and the U.S. policy response will be key for markets in 2022<blockquote>为什么通胀和美国政策反应将是2022年市场的关键</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2192039709","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Federal Reserve's inflation battle in 2022 will hinge on economic growth\nHow the Federal Reserve and","content":"<p>Federal Reserve's inflation battle in 2022 will hinge on economic growth</p><p><blockquote>美联储2022年的通胀之战将取决于经济增长</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ff44f1cb6fee19f2a4a8710c451c8a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>How the Federal Reserve and policy makers in Washington react to inflation pressures will be a key factor for markets in the coming year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美联储和华盛顿政策制定者如何应对通胀压力将是未来一年市场的关键因素。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets have been pretty smooth sailing for investors this year, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies helping to iron out rough patches during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>今年，美国金融市场对投资者来说相当顺利，美联储的宽松货币政策帮助缓解了疫情期间的困难。</blockquote></p><p> In the final weeks of December, the S&P 500 index was up 23% on the year, while U.S. \"junk bond\" yields with speculative-grade ratings were near historic lows around 4.5% . The broad stock market rally has made it easy to draw links between soaring asset prices and the Fed's bond buying program and heaps of fiscal aid from Washington.</p><p><blockquote>在12月的最后几周，标普500指数同比上涨23%，而具有投机级评级的美国“垃圾债券”收益率接近4.5%左右的历史低点。股市的广泛上涨使得人们很容易将飙升的资产价格与美联储的债券购买计划和华盛顿的大量财政援助联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> But that's all about to change with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now squarely focused on keeping sharply higher costs of living from derailing the U.S. economy, and with investors expecting 2022 to be when markets really get interesting.</p><p><blockquote>但随着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔现在专注于防止生活成本急剧上升导致美国经济脱轨，这一切都即将改变，投资者预计2022年将是市场真正变得有趣的时候。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think inflation is the variable for 2022, because that's going to be what drives policy,\" said Jim Caron, senior portfolio manager at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> Investment Management, in a phone interview Friday. \"Policy has been driving asset performance.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我认为通胀是2022年的变量，因为这将是推动政策的因素，”高级投资组合经理Jim Caron表示。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>投资管理，在周五的电话采访中。“政策一直在推动资产表现。”</blockquote></p><p> And with policy something of a wild card in the coming months, particularly as the government looks to tamp down price pressures, without hamstringing the economy, Caron said he's urging investors to keep some cash on hand for buying opportunities in what could be \"a very volatile and choppy year.\"</p><p><blockquote>卡隆表示，由于未来几个月的政策有些不确定，特别是在政府希望在不削弱经济的情况下减轻价格压力的情况下，他敦促投资者手头保留一些现金，以便在可能“非常不稳定和动荡的一年。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation matters, so does growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀很重要，增长也很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks tumbled to their worst weekly losses in three weeks Friday, after the Fed on Wednesday outlined more aggressive plans to end its massive bond-buying program and penciled in three benchmark interest rate increases next year.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五跌至三周来最大单周跌幅，此前美联储周三概述了结束大规模债券购买计划的更激进计划，并预计明年将加息三次。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next few months, investors will look for the U.S. central bank to engineer a soft landing for markets as it attempts to switch gears and tighten accommodative monetary policies to fight inflation running at 1980s levels, but also keep the economy advancing.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个月，投资者将期待美联储为市场设计软着陆，因为它试图改变策略并收紧宽松货币政策，以对抗20世纪80年代水平的通胀，同时保持经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Like Europe, the U.S. also may need to balance policy with potential economic setbacks as coronavirus variants begin to drive another startling wave of winter COVID-19 infections and restrictions on consumer and business activity.</p><p><blockquote>与欧洲一样，美国也可能需要平衡政策与潜在的经济挫折，因为冠状病毒变种开始引发另一波令人震惊的冬季COVID-19感染浪潮以及对消费者和商业活动的限制。</blockquote></p><p> \"If GDP growth disappoints and inflation remains high, it will be tough for the Fed to raise rates 75 basis points next year,\" said D.A. Davidson's James Ragan, director of wealth management research.</p><p><blockquote>D.A.表示：“如果GDP增长令人失望且通胀居高不下，美联储明年将很难加息75个基点。”戴维森财富管理研究总监詹姆斯·拉冈。</blockquote></p><p> While Fed officials increased their 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4% next year from 3.8% earlier, still above the historical trend, that's lower than the 5.5% growth expected this year. \"That type of GDP growth should support Fed rate increases and higher long-term rates,\" Ragan said, in a phone interview. Although, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 1.4%, Ragan said the bond market has been exhibiting some doubts about how much room the Fed may have to interest raise rates in the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员将2022年GDP增长预期从早些时候的3.8%上调至明年的4%，仍高于历史趋势，但低于今年5.5%的增长预期。拉根在电话采访中表示：“这种类型的GDP增长应该会支持美联储加息和提高长期利率。”尽管如此，随着10年期国债收益率接近1.4%，拉冈表示，债券市场对美联储在未来12个月内可能有多大加息空间表现出一些怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think bond investors are still concerned about long-term growth prospects, and a little worried that three rate hikes might be a little too much,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为债券投资者仍然担心长期增长前景，有点担心三次加息可能有点过了，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> For stocks, Ragan worries about high valuations and uncertainty about future corporate earnings, particularly if inflation slows economic activity, consumers pull back spending or wage pressures translate to lower company earnings.</p><p><blockquote>对于股票，拉冈担心高估值和未来企业盈利的不确定性，特别是如果通胀减缓经济活动、消费者缩减支出或工资压力导致企业盈利下降。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's something to keep an eye on in early 2022,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这是2022年初需要关注的事情，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Right thing' to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>做“正确的事”</b></blockquote></p><p> Stephen Philipson, head of U.S. Bank's fixed income and capital markets group, said the Fed's more \"aggressive stance is the right thing to do to counter stubborn inflation,\" particularly with so much liquidity sloshing through financial markets during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>合众银行固定收益和资本市场部门负责人斯蒂芬·菲利普森表示，美联储采取更“激进的立场是对抗顽固通胀的正确做法”，特别是在疫情期间金融市场流动性如此之多的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> Philipson said he also sees looming interest rate increases as a likely catalyst for U.S. investment-grade companies to refinance some $1.25 trillion in debt coming due from 2023 and 2025, with coupons above 3%.</p><p><blockquote>Philipson表示，他还认为迫在眉睫的加息可能是美国投资级公司为2023年和2025年到期的约1.25万亿美元债务进行再融资的催化剂，票面利率高于3%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There's a meaningful amount of debt that could be pulled forward to refinance,\" he told MarketWatch. \"We've been calling for slightly down supply for the year, but I think with the Fed taking a more aggressive approach, it could accelerate refinancing of bonds coming due over the next few years.\"</p><p><blockquote>他告诉MarketWatch：“有大量债务可以提前进行再融资。”“我们一直呼吁今年的供应略有下降，但我认为，随着美联储采取更积极的做法，可能会加速未来几年到期债券的再融资。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a volatile week 1.7% lower, while the S&P 500 ended down 1.9%. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 3%, with all three booking the worst week of declines since Nov. 26, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数本周收盘下跌1.7%，标普500收盘下跌1.9%。根据道琼斯市场数据，纳斯达克综合指数下跌3%，这三个指数均创下自11月26日以来最严重的一周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Midweek, before Friday's Christmas Eve holiday, will see a fresh slate of U.S. economic data, including December's updated consumer confidence index and existing home sales on Wednesday. But it will be Thursday with a deluge that includes weekly initial jobless claims for the week of Dec. 18, but also November updates on core inflation, personal income, consumer spending, durable goods orders and more.</p><p><blockquote>周中，即周五平安夜假期之前，将公布一系列新的美国经济数据，包括周三更新的12月消费者信心指数和成屋销售。但周四将迎来大量数据，其中包括12月18日当周每周首次申请失业救济人数，以及11月份核心通胀、个人收入、消费者支出、耐用品订单等方面的最新数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why inflation and the U.S. policy response will be key for markets in 2022<blockquote>为什么通胀和美国政策反应将是2022年市场的关键</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy inflation and the U.S. policy response will be key for markets in 2022<blockquote>为什么通胀和美国政策反应将是2022年市场的关键</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 11:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve's inflation battle in 2022 will hinge on economic growth</p><p><blockquote>美联储2022年的通胀之战将取决于经济增长</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ff44f1cb6fee19f2a4a8710c451c8a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>How the Federal Reserve and policy makers in Washington react to inflation pressures will be a key factor for markets in the coming year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美联储和华盛顿政策制定者如何应对通胀压力将是未来一年市场的关键因素。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets have been pretty smooth sailing for investors this year, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies helping to iron out rough patches during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>今年，美国金融市场对投资者来说相当顺利，美联储的宽松货币政策帮助缓解了疫情期间的困难。</blockquote></p><p> In the final weeks of December, the S&P 500 index was up 23% on the year, while U.S. \"junk bond\" yields with speculative-grade ratings were near historic lows around 4.5% . The broad stock market rally has made it easy to draw links between soaring asset prices and the Fed's bond buying program and heaps of fiscal aid from Washington.</p><p><blockquote>在12月的最后几周，标普500指数同比上涨23%，而具有投机级评级的美国“垃圾债券”收益率接近4.5%左右的历史低点。股市的广泛上涨使得人们很容易将飙升的资产价格与美联储的债券购买计划和华盛顿的大量财政援助联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> But that's all about to change with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now squarely focused on keeping sharply higher costs of living from derailing the U.S. economy, and with investors expecting 2022 to be when markets really get interesting.</p><p><blockquote>但随着美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔现在专注于防止生活成本急剧上升导致美国经济脱轨，这一切都即将改变，投资者预计2022年将是市场真正变得有趣的时候。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think inflation is the variable for 2022, because that's going to be what drives policy,\" said Jim Caron, senior portfolio manager at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a> Investment Management, in a phone interview Friday. \"Policy has been driving asset performance.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我认为通胀是2022年的变量，因为这将是推动政策的因素，”高级投资组合经理Jim Caron表示。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>投资管理，在周五的电话采访中。“政策一直在推动资产表现。”</blockquote></p><p> And with policy something of a wild card in the coming months, particularly as the government looks to tamp down price pressures, without hamstringing the economy, Caron said he's urging investors to keep some cash on hand for buying opportunities in what could be \"a very volatile and choppy year.\"</p><p><blockquote>卡隆表示，由于未来几个月的政策有些不确定，特别是在政府希望在不削弱经济的情况下减轻价格压力的情况下，他敦促投资者手头保留一些现金，以便在可能“非常不稳定和动荡的一年。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation matters, so does growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通胀很重要，增长也很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks tumbled to their worst weekly losses in three weeks Friday, after the Fed on Wednesday outlined more aggressive plans to end its massive bond-buying program and penciled in three benchmark interest rate increases next year.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五跌至三周来最大单周跌幅，此前美联储周三概述了结束大规模债券购买计划的更激进计划，并预计明年将加息三次。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next few months, investors will look for the U.S. central bank to engineer a soft landing for markets as it attempts to switch gears and tighten accommodative monetary policies to fight inflation running at 1980s levels, but also keep the economy advancing.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个月，投资者将期待美联储为市场设计软着陆，因为它试图改变策略并收紧宽松货币政策，以对抗20世纪80年代水平的通胀，同时保持经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Like Europe, the U.S. also may need to balance policy with potential economic setbacks as coronavirus variants begin to drive another startling wave of winter COVID-19 infections and restrictions on consumer and business activity.</p><p><blockquote>与欧洲一样，美国也可能需要平衡政策与潜在的经济挫折，因为冠状病毒变种开始引发另一波令人震惊的冬季COVID-19感染浪潮以及对消费者和商业活动的限制。</blockquote></p><p> \"If GDP growth disappoints and inflation remains high, it will be tough for the Fed to raise rates 75 basis points next year,\" said D.A. Davidson's James Ragan, director of wealth management research.</p><p><blockquote>D.A.表示：“如果GDP增长令人失望且通胀居高不下，美联储明年将很难加息75个基点。”戴维森财富管理研究总监詹姆斯·拉冈。</blockquote></p><p> While Fed officials increased their 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4% next year from 3.8% earlier, still above the historical trend, that's lower than the 5.5% growth expected this year. \"That type of GDP growth should support Fed rate increases and higher long-term rates,\" Ragan said, in a phone interview. Although, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 1.4%, Ragan said the bond market has been exhibiting some doubts about how much room the Fed may have to interest raise rates in the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员将2022年GDP增长预期从早些时候的3.8%上调至明年的4%，仍高于历史趋势，但低于今年5.5%的增长预期。拉根在电话采访中表示：“这种类型的GDP增长应该会支持美联储加息和提高长期利率。”尽管如此，随着10年期国债收益率接近1.4%，拉冈表示，债券市场对美联储在未来12个月内可能有多大加息空间表现出一些怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> \"I think bond investors are still concerned about long-term growth prospects, and a little worried that three rate hikes might be a little too much,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为债券投资者仍然担心长期增长前景，有点担心三次加息可能有点过了，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> For stocks, Ragan worries about high valuations and uncertainty about future corporate earnings, particularly if inflation slows economic activity, consumers pull back spending or wage pressures translate to lower company earnings.</p><p><blockquote>对于股票，拉冈担心高估值和未来企业盈利的不确定性，特别是如果通胀减缓经济活动、消费者缩减支出或工资压力导致企业盈利下降。</blockquote></p><p> \"That's something to keep an eye on in early 2022,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这是2022年初需要关注的事情，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Right thing' to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>做“正确的事”</b></blockquote></p><p> Stephen Philipson, head of U.S. Bank's fixed income and capital markets group, said the Fed's more \"aggressive stance is the right thing to do to counter stubborn inflation,\" particularly with so much liquidity sloshing through financial markets during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>合众银行固定收益和资本市场部门负责人斯蒂芬·菲利普森表示，美联储采取更“激进的立场是对抗顽固通胀的正确做法”，特别是在疫情期间金融市场流动性如此之多的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> Philipson said he also sees looming interest rate increases as a likely catalyst for U.S. investment-grade companies to refinance some $1.25 trillion in debt coming due from 2023 and 2025, with coupons above 3%.</p><p><blockquote>Philipson表示，他还认为迫在眉睫的加息可能是美国投资级公司为2023年和2025年到期的约1.25万亿美元债务进行再融资的催化剂，票面利率高于3%。</blockquote></p><p> \"There's a meaningful amount of debt that could be pulled forward to refinance,\" he told MarketWatch. \"We've been calling for slightly down supply for the year, but I think with the Fed taking a more aggressive approach, it could accelerate refinancing of bonds coming due over the next few years.\"</p><p><blockquote>他告诉MarketWatch：“有大量债务可以提前进行再融资。”“我们一直呼吁今年的供应略有下降，但我认为，随着美联储采取更积极的做法，可能会加速未来几年到期债券的再融资。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a volatile week 1.7% lower, while the S&P 500 ended down 1.9%. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 3%, with all three booking the worst week of declines since Nov. 26, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数本周收盘下跌1.7%，标普500收盘下跌1.9%。根据道琼斯市场数据，纳斯达克综合指数下跌3%，这三个指数均创下自11月26日以来最严重的一周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Midweek, before Friday's Christmas Eve holiday, will see a fresh slate of U.S. economic data, including December's updated consumer confidence index and existing home sales on Wednesday. But it will be Thursday with a deluge that includes weekly initial jobless claims for the week of Dec. 18, but also November updates on core inflation, personal income, consumer spending, durable goods orders and more.</p><p><blockquote>周中，即周五平安夜假期之前，将公布一系列新的美国经济数据，包括周三更新的12月消费者信心指数和成屋销售。但周四将迎来大量数据，其中包括12月18日当周每周首次申请失业救济人数，以及11月份核心通胀、个人收入、消费者支出、耐用品订单等方面的最新数据。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-inflation-and-the-u-s-policy-response-will-be-key-for-markets-in-2022-11639795830?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4207":"综合性银行","USB":"美国合众银行","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-inflation-and-the-u-s-policy-response-will-be-key-for-markets-in-2022-11639795830?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2192039709","content_text":"Federal Reserve's inflation battle in 2022 will hinge on economic growth\nHow the Federal Reserve and policy makers in Washington react to inflation pressures will be a key factor for markets in the coming year.\nU.S. financial markets have been pretty smooth sailing for investors this year, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies helping to iron out rough patches during the pandemic.\nIn the final weeks of December, the S&P 500 index was up 23% on the year, while U.S. \"junk bond\" yields with speculative-grade ratings were near historic lows around 4.5% . The broad stock market rally has made it easy to draw links between soaring asset prices and the Fed's bond buying program and heaps of fiscal aid from Washington.\nBut that's all about to change with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now squarely focused on keeping sharply higher costs of living from derailing the U.S. economy, and with investors expecting 2022 to be when markets really get interesting.\n\"I think inflation is the variable for 2022, because that's going to be what drives policy,\" said Jim Caron, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, in a phone interview Friday. \"Policy has been driving asset performance.\"\nAnd with policy something of a wild card in the coming months, particularly as the government looks to tamp down price pressures, without hamstringing the economy, Caron said he's urging investors to keep some cash on hand for buying opportunities in what could be \"a very volatile and choppy year.\"\nInflation matters, so does growth\nU.S. stocks tumbled to their worst weekly losses in three weeks Friday, after the Fed on Wednesday outlined more aggressive plans to end its massive bond-buying program and penciled in three benchmark interest rate increases next year.\nOver the next few months, investors will look for the U.S. central bank to engineer a soft landing for markets as it attempts to switch gears and tighten accommodative monetary policies to fight inflation running at 1980s levels, but also keep the economy advancing.\nLike Europe, the U.S. also may need to balance policy with potential economic setbacks as coronavirus variants begin to drive another startling wave of winter COVID-19 infections and restrictions on consumer and business activity.\n\"If GDP growth disappoints and inflation remains high, it will be tough for the Fed to raise rates 75 basis points next year,\" said D.A. Davidson's James Ragan, director of wealth management research.\nWhile Fed officials increased their 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4% next year from 3.8% earlier, still above the historical trend, that's lower than the 5.5% growth expected this year. \"That type of GDP growth should support Fed rate increases and higher long-term rates,\" Ragan said, in a phone interview. Although, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 1.4%, Ragan said the bond market has been exhibiting some doubts about how much room the Fed may have to interest raise rates in the next 12 months.\n\"I think bond investors are still concerned about long-term growth prospects, and a little worried that three rate hikes might be a little too much,\" he said.\nFor stocks, Ragan worries about high valuations and uncertainty about future corporate earnings, particularly if inflation slows economic activity, consumers pull back spending or wage pressures translate to lower company earnings.\n\"That's something to keep an eye on in early 2022,\" he said.\n'Right thing' to do\nStephen Philipson, head of U.S. Bank's fixed income and capital markets group, said the Fed's more \"aggressive stance is the right thing to do to counter stubborn inflation,\" particularly with so much liquidity sloshing through financial markets during the pandemic.\nPhilipson said he also sees looming interest rate increases as a likely catalyst for U.S. investment-grade companies to refinance some $1.25 trillion in debt coming due from 2023 and 2025, with coupons above 3%.\n\"There's a meaningful amount of debt that could be pulled forward to refinance,\" he told MarketWatch. \"We've been calling for slightly down supply for the year, but I think with the Fed taking a more aggressive approach, it could accelerate refinancing of bonds coming due over the next few years.\"\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a volatile week 1.7% lower, while the S&P 500 ended down 1.9%. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 3%, with all three booking the worst week of declines since Nov. 26, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMidweek, before Friday's Christmas Eve holiday, will see a fresh slate of U.S. economic data, including December's updated consumer confidence index and existing home sales on Wednesday. But it will be Thursday with a deluge that includes weekly initial jobless claims for the week of Dec. 18, but also November updates on core inflation, personal income, consumer spending, durable goods orders and more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"USB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1340,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/693388493"}
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