Shiki0306
2021-12-20
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Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>
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Huat99
2021-12-20
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":693360825,"tweetId":"693360825","gmtCreate":1639971923729,"gmtModify":1639971923971,"author":{"id":3573425836738111,"idStr":"3573425836738111","authorId":3573425836738111,"authorIdStr":"3573425836738111","name":"Shiki0306","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":22,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pls</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Like pls</p></body></html>","text":"Like pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693360825","repostId":1183475424,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183475424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639967829,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183475424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183475424","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to a","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li> <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li> <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li> <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li> <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并准备最早在3月份加息。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景恶化，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍然具有弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及 AR/VR 和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现额外的上涨空间。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但苹果的看涨论点在其估值接近 3 万亿美元时仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）今年上涨了近 40%。该股不久前曾触及 182.13 美元的最高点，目前距离成为第一家市值达到 3 万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到 7%，单枪匹马就占据了以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数业绩的约 15%。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了 220 多倍，这得益于该公司持续能够抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面有望帮助该股抵御明年开始即将加息带来的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来的最高点，美联储周三决定加快每月 1200 亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从 11 月开始的每月 150 亿美元降至每月 300 亿美元。这将有效地结束疫情爆发时实施的刺激计划，即明年3月，而不是最初计划的7月。加息预计将很快开始，以应对不断上升的价格压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减规模结束后才会开始，并且步伐渐进。最新的点阵图表明，联邦基金利率有可能从 2022 年初的接近于零的水平上升，并上调三个四分之一点，2023 年再上调三个四分之一点，2024 年再上调两个。如果实现，到 2024 年，这一过程将把基金利率提高到 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会更快地受到侵蚀，而且由于资本成本上升（尤其是高增长股票）导致业务增长停滞，但在美联储发布紧缩政策的最新消息后，苹果股市上涨了近3%。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。在美联储发布最新消息后，苹果的反弹以及其他大型科技股的类似上升趋势相应地推动了纳斯达克 100 指数盘中上涨 2.4%，这表明投资者更倾向于将资金投入增长前景强劲的公司，以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假日季对苹果 12 月季度的销售额有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入 3 万亿美元大关。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购，以及预计在可预见的未来，新的尖端产品将带来额外的收入贡献，也将成为支撑公司持续强劲基本面的关键催化剂，并在即将加息的情况下将使股票估值保持在 3 万亿美元以上。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 209.43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年概述及基本前景回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致门店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过 90 亿美元，但该公司全年的收入比 2020 财年增长了 33%，达到 3660 亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年的业绩增长了20%以上。今年的成功很大程度上归功于一系列新产品的发布和功能的升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 今年的销量增长了 39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，并贡献了苹果 2021 财年一半以上的收入。这一结果与去年移动设备需求的下滑形成了鲜明对比，当时消费者正在为大流行病带来的经济不确定性做好准备。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，iPhone销售预计将在未来几年保持强劲。2022 年可能会推出更实惠的支持 5G 的 iPhone SE，这也将吸引 “超过 10 亿非高端安卓用户 ”的转换用户，从而进一步扩大苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向历史新高。在支持 5G 的 iPhone 12s 和 iPhone 13s 推出后，最近几个季度观察到的 iPhone 销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级和切换用户的数量强劲增长了两位数。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动 iPhone 的销售贡献。威瑞森和美国电话电报公司等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励向他们花费数十亿美元在全国范围内建设的5G网络迁移。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内花费超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这凸显了随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回投资，iPhone领域未来的巨大增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac 和 iPad 销量在 2021 财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的 352 亿美元和 319 亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的 M1 处理器使最新的 MacBook “在游戏以外的几乎所有生产力用例上都优于任何基于英特尔的设备”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的巨大需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在 9 月份季度的 Mac 产品出货量超过 320 万台，推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球 PC 销量中的排名提升至其他供应商的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入 M1 处理器也巩固了其在利用全球对 PC 和多功能平板电脑需求激增的优势方面的地位，使该公司能够制造具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以在其外围配件和服务生态系统中无缝集成，从而吸引相关收入。随着后大流行病时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，预计未来几年全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求将保持高位--到 2025 年，这两个行业的市场预计将分别增长到 2,243 亿美元和 6,000 亿美元，这将为苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 细分市场带来有利趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近有猜测称，苹果有意加强其内部芯片开发能力，这可能会在未来几年进一步推动其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的更多需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师，以增强其在 “无线收音机、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及 “用于连接蓝牙和 Wi-Fi 的半导体”方面的开发能力。这些发展有望进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为公司 “最宝贵的资产 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户群使该部门在 2021 财年的收入创下了超过 684 亿美元的纪录，比上一年增长了 27%。迄今为止，苹果通过其高利润服务产品获得了超过 7.45 亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其从苹果音乐到 iCloud 存储解决方案等各种服务平台上不断推行基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对主要消费趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司利润率快速增长的关键驱动力。为现有服务平台引入的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品有望进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品全球使用量不断增加所带来的邻近机遇的影响力--例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将在未来五年内以 16% 的复合年增长率扩大，预计价值将达到 610 亿美元，这凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果 One 捆绑包预计将在未来几年吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，而如果不是捆绑包折扣，他们是不会购买这些服务的。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将有利于苹果快速增长的服务部门。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于 AAPL 拥有世界上最大、使用最广泛的应用商店之一，因此可以合理地假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果的 App Store 涉嫌违反反垄断规定的审查越来越多--其中最引人注目的是与 Epic Games 正在进行的法律诉讼--但该公司继续专注于确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性可能已经挽救了局面。根据摩根士丹利在美国和中国大陆对 4000 名苹果产品用户进行的调查，大多数人对苹果的应用商店表示忠诚，因为该商店提供了 “安全、隐私和易于交易的价值”，尽管开发者正在推动在苹果生态系统之外进行交易。苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）9 月份下令对 App Store 进行的更改，这是 Epic Games 对其提起长达一年的诉讼的一部分，这也是 App Store 持续强大的又一迹象。该公司辩称，法院下令允许 App Store 用户 “直接从网络上的开发者那里购买 ”，这将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用程序用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达 30% 的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施 App Store 变更的最终裁决可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，苹果将不得不允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多也只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到 App Store 用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基数和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子产品和设备的先驱预计将于 2023 年初推出 VR 耳机和 AR 眼镜，这项新兴技术近几个月来随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，势头强劲。与市场上已有的大多数 VR 头显类似，苹果的 VR 头显将采用 3D 显示屏，为从游戏到交流等各种活动提供身临其境的环境。该公司计划在设备中采用一流的图形芯片，以实现超高分辨率显示屏。即将推出的 VR 头显最终将为其 AR 眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是 “更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为一个价值 8000 亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的 70% 以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的 AR/VR 耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与使用相关应用程序、软件和服务平台相关的相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，关于苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测也有望为该股带来有意义的上涨空间。该公司目前计划在2025年前推出新产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场价值预计将超过2000亿美元。最终推出的汽车很可能会向其现有的产品组合致敬，比如 “类似 iPad 的触摸屏 ”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了为汽车自动驾驶功能提供动力的定制硅的开发。据加州车管所称，最新芯片将很快应用于其现有的改装 SUV 车队，以便在加州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了 “随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别的推出仍未带来额外的好处。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期 AR/VR 设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高 1500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，随着元宇宙趋势继续获得主流牵引力，苹果预计将从 AR/VR 领域产生超过 2000 亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即将加息的估值前景和潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果 2021 财年年终业绩和 12 月份季度指引的最新预测后，我们的基本案例预测预计到 2022 财年末，净销售总额将达到 4393 亿美元，到 2026 财年将进一步增长至 6685 亿美元。在我们的预测中，各部门收入的增长假设与我们最近对该股的分析基本保持不变，但还额外考虑了管理层对供应紧张影响和即将加息的近期展望。具体来说，2021 财年下半年全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延误造成的 90 亿美元收入损失（即 6 月份季度约 30 亿美元，9 月份季度约 60 亿美元）预计将恶化到 2022 财年上半年。虽然供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将推动未来几个季度销售额的增加。尽管如此，苹果未来的基本面依然强劲，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关应用的重大增长假设的进一步详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们对苹果股票的 12 个月目标价已修正至 209.43 美元。根据 12 月 17 日最后交易价格 171.14 美元计算，这意味着超过 22% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期间的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，结合前面章节分析的苹果近期发展的最新财务预测得出的。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了 8% 的 WACC 来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司目前的资本结构和稳健的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务中有很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长的资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在利率上升之前部署额外增长，而不必承担额外的资本成本。预计这将进一步增强水泥投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升会带来更广泛的市场压力的情况下，继续 “向优质方向飞奔”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为 19.8 倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品细分市场即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将到来的加息带来的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述分析，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计未来两年在目前接近于零的联邦基金利率基础上增加 175 至 200 个基点，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步提振公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步加强其抵御更广泛宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能推动苹果的估值增长势头。出于这些考虑，尽管即将加息，但苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，因为其近期仍呈现强劲上升趋势，达到 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li> <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li> <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li> <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li> <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并准备最早在3月份加息。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景恶化，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍然具有弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及 AR/VR 和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现额外的上涨空间。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但苹果的看涨论点在其估值接近 3 万亿美元时仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）今年上涨了近 40%。该股不久前曾触及 182.13 美元的最高点，目前距离成为第一家市值达到 3 万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到 7%，单枪匹马就占据了以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数业绩的约 15%。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了 220 多倍，这得益于该公司持续能够抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面有望帮助该股抵御明年开始即将加息带来的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来的最高点，美联储周三决定加快每月 1200 亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从 11 月开始的每月 150 亿美元降至每月 300 亿美元。这将有效地结束疫情爆发时实施的刺激计划，即明年3月，而不是最初计划的7月。加息预计将很快开始，以应对不断上升的价格压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减规模结束后才会开始，并且步伐渐进。最新的点阵图表明，联邦基金利率有可能从 2022 年初的接近于零的水平上升，并上调三个四分之一点，2023 年再上调三个四分之一点，2024 年再上调两个。如果实现，到 2024 年，这一过程将把基金利率提高到 2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会更快地受到侵蚀，而且由于资本成本上升（尤其是高增长股票）导致业务增长停滞，但在美联储发布紧缩政策的最新消息后，苹果股市上涨了近3%。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。在美联储发布最新消息后，苹果的反弹以及其他大型科技股的类似上升趋势相应地推动了纳斯达克 100 指数盘中上涨 2.4%，这表明投资者更倾向于将资金投入增长前景强劲的公司，以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假日季对苹果 12 月季度的销售额有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入 3 万亿美元大关。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购，以及预计在可预见的未来，新的尖端产品将带来额外的收入贡献，也将成为支撑公司持续强劲基本面的关键催化剂，并在即将加息的情况下将使股票估值保持在 3 万亿美元以上。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股的 12 个月目标价上调至 209.43 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年概述及基本前景回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致门店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过 90 亿美元，但该公司全年的收入比 2020 财年增长了 33%，达到 3660 亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年的业绩增长了20%以上。今年的成功很大程度上归功于一系列新产品的发布和功能的升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 今年的销量增长了 39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，并贡献了苹果 2021 财年一半以上的收入。这一结果与去年移动设备需求的下滑形成了鲜明对比，当时消费者正在为大流行病带来的经济不确定性做好准备。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，iPhone销售预计将在未来几年保持强劲。2022 年可能会推出更实惠的支持 5G 的 iPhone SE，这也将吸引 “超过 10 亿非高端安卓用户 ”的转换用户，从而进一步扩大苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向历史新高。在支持 5G 的 iPhone 12s 和 iPhone 13s 推出后，最近几个季度观察到的 iPhone 销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级和切换用户的数量强劲增长了两位数。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动 iPhone 的销售贡献。威瑞森和美国电话电报公司等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励向他们花费数十亿美元在全国范围内建设的5G网络迁移。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内花费超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这凸显了随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回投资，iPhone领域未来的巨大增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac 和 iPad 销量在 2021 财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的 352 亿美元和 319 亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的 M1 处理器使最新的 MacBook “在游戏以外的几乎所有生产力用例上都优于任何基于英特尔的设备”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的巨大需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在 9 月份季度的 Mac 产品出货量超过 320 万台，推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球 PC 销量中的排名提升至其他供应商的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入 M1 处理器也巩固了其在利用全球对 PC 和多功能平板电脑需求激增的优势方面的地位，使该公司能够制造具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以在其外围配件和服务生态系统中无缝集成，从而吸引相关收入。随着后大流行病时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，预计未来几年全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求将保持高位--到 2025 年，这两个行业的市场预计将分别增长到 2,243 亿美元和 6,000 亿美元，这将为苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 细分市场带来有利趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近有猜测称，苹果有意加强其内部芯片开发能力，这可能会在未来几年进一步推动其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的更多需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师，以增强其在 “无线收音机、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及 “用于连接蓝牙和 Wi-Fi 的半导体”方面的开发能力。这些发展有望进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为公司 “最宝贵的资产 ”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户群使该部门在 2021 财年的收入创下了超过 684 亿美元的纪录，比上一年增长了 27%。迄今为止，苹果通过其高利润服务产品获得了超过 7.45 亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其从苹果音乐到 iCloud 存储解决方案等各种服务平台上不断推行基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对主要消费趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司利润率快速增长的关键驱动力。为现有服务平台引入的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品有望进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品全球使用量不断增加所带来的邻近机遇的影响力--例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将在未来五年内以 16% 的复合年增长率扩大，预计价值将达到 610 亿美元，这凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果 One 捆绑包预计将在未来几年吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，而如果不是捆绑包折扣，他们是不会购买这些服务的。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将有利于苹果快速增长的服务部门。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于 AAPL 拥有世界上最大、使用最广泛的应用商店之一，因此可以合理地假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果的 App Store 涉嫌违反反垄断规定的审查越来越多--其中最引人注目的是与 Epic Games 正在进行的法律诉讼--但该公司继续专注于确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性可能已经挽救了局面。根据摩根士丹利在美国和中国大陆对 4000 名苹果产品用户进行的调查，大多数人对苹果的应用商店表示忠诚，因为该商店提供了 “安全、隐私和易于交易的价值”，尽管开发者正在推动在苹果生态系统之外进行交易。苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官伊冯娜-冈萨雷斯-罗杰斯（Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers）9 月份下令对 App Store 进行的更改，这是 Epic Games 对其提起长达一年的诉讼的一部分，这也是 App Store 持续强大的又一迹象。该公司辩称，法院下令允许 App Store 用户 “直接从网络上的开发者那里购买 ”，这将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用程序用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达 30% 的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施 App Store 变更的最终裁决可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，苹果将不得不允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多也只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到 App Store 用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基数和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子产品和设备的先驱预计将于 2023 年初推出 VR 耳机和 AR 眼镜，这项新兴技术近几个月来随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，势头强劲。与市场上已有的大多数 VR 头显类似，苹果的 VR 头显将采用 3D 显示屏，为从游戏到交流等各种活动提供身临其境的环境。该公司计划在设备中采用一流的图形芯片，以实现超高分辨率显示屏。即将推出的 VR 头显最终将为其 AR 眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是 “更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为一个价值 8000 亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的 70% 以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的 AR/VR 耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与使用相关应用程序、软件和服务平台相关的相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，关于苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测也有望为该股带来有意义的上涨空间。该公司目前计划在2025年前推出新产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场价值预计将超过2000亿美元。最终推出的汽车很可能会向其现有的产品组合致敬，比如 “类似 iPad 的触摸屏 ”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了为汽车自动驾驶功能提供动力的定制硅的开发。据加州车管所称，最新芯片将很快应用于其现有的改装 SUV 车队，以便在加州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了 “随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别的推出仍未带来额外的好处。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期 AR/VR 设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高 1500 亿美元。随着时间的推移，随着元宇宙趋势继续获得主流牵引力，苹果预计将从 AR/VR 领域产生超过 2000 亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即将加息的估值前景和潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果 2021 财年年终业绩和 12 月份季度指引的最新预测后，我们的基本案例预测预计到 2022 财年末，净销售总额将达到 4393 亿美元，到 2026 财年将进一步增长至 6685 亿美元。在我们的预测中，各部门收入的增长假设与我们最近对该股的分析基本保持不变，但还额外考虑了管理层对供应紧张影响和即将加息的近期展望。具体来说，2021 财年下半年全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延误造成的 90 亿美元收入损失（即 6 月份季度约 30 亿美元，9 月份季度约 60 亿美元）预计将恶化到 2022 财年上半年。虽然供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将推动未来几个季度销售额的增加。尽管如此，苹果未来的基本面依然强劲，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i. 基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关应用的重大增长假设的进一步详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们对苹果股票的 12 个月目标价已修正至 209.43 美元。根据 12 月 17 日最后交易价格 171.14 美元计算，这意味着超过 22% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期间的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析，结合前面章节分析的苹果近期发展的最新财务预测得出的。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了 8% 的 WACC 来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司目前的资本结构和稳健的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务中有很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长的资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在利率上升之前部署额外增长，而不必承担额外的资本成本。预计这将进一步增强水泥投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升会带来更广泛的市场压力的情况下，继续 “向优质方向飞奔”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为 19.8 倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品细分市场即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将到来的加息带来的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>ii.敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>根据上述分析，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计未来两年在目前接近于零的联邦基金利率基础上增加 175 至 200 个基点，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步提振公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步加强其抵御更广泛宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能推动苹果的估值增长势头。出于这些考虑，尽管即将加息，但苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，因为其近期仍呈现强劲上升趋势，达到 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183475424","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.\nWhile rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.\nApple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.\nIts strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.\nAs such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.\n\nguvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAs one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.\nAnd Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.\nSource: Bloomberg\nWhile rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.\nWith the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.\nFY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects\nFiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.\nKey Developments in Products\niPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.\nMac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.\nRecent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.\nKey Developments in Services\nOn the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.\nContinued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.\nCurrently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.\nKey Catalysts Ahead\nApple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.\nOver the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.\nSpeculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.\nWhile Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.\nValuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases\nAdjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.\n\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.\nDrawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nThe revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.\nThe valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nBased on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3719,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7051454,"commentId":"7051454","gmtCreate":1639972111598,"gmtModify":1639972111598,"authorId":3555376654101817,"author":{"id":3555376654101817,"idStr":"3555376654101817","authorId":3555376654101817,"name":"Huat99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c30eb3331cf3fbbc42818b462456369","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":693360825,"objectIdStr":"693360825","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"OK","text":"OK","html":"OK","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/693360825"}
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