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2021-12-30

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The S&P 500 could have 16% upside through the end of 2022, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says<blockquote>Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，到2022年底，标普500可能有16%的上涨空间</blockquote>

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But that estimate could be too conservative, according to a Wednesday note from Fundstrat.<blockquote>他已经将标普500到2022年底的目标价设定为5,100点，较周二收盘价有约7%的潜在上涨空间。但根据Fundstrat周三的一份报告，这一估计可能过于保守。</blockquote>With the S&amp;P 500 up nearly 30% in 2021, a historical analysis of past market returns suggests gains could extend higher into next year. Since 1938, the stock market has generated an average and median annual gain of 12% and 16%, respectively, in the year following a rise of at least 27%, according to Lee.<blockquote>随着标普500在2021年上涨近30%，对过去市场回报的历史分析表明，涨幅可能会延续到明年。Lee表示，自1938年以来，股市的平均年涨幅和中位数分别为12%和16%，此前一年上涨了至少27%。</blockquote>Those potential gains would send the S&amp;P 500 to between 5,400 and 5,600. &#34;Most years post +27% gains are actually very good...thus, we believe our base case of S&amp;P 500 5,100 is conservative,&#34; he said.<blockquote>这些潜在收益将使标普500升至5,400至5,600之间。“大多数年份涨幅超过27%实际上都非常好……因此，我们认为标普500 5,100点的基本情况是保守的，”他说。</blockquote>The rise in stocks isn&#39;t just being driven by momentum. It&#39;s also being buoyed by a strong economic backdrop and rising corporate profits. &#34;The rise in equities, in our view, has been justified by the substantial economic resilience coupled with tremendous operating leverage of businesses,&#34; Lee explained.<blockquote>股市的上涨不仅仅是由势头推动的。强劲的经济背景和不断增长的企业利润也提振了它。李解释说：“我们认为，强劲的经济弹性以及企业巨大的运营杠杆证明了股市上涨的合理性。”</blockquote>Still, despite the bright outlook, the Fundstrat team is expecting significant turbulence in 2022, especially in the first half of the year. That&#39;s because COVID cases could remain elevated, supply-chain glitches may persist, mid-term elections could contribute to uncertainty, and the Fed is on the verge of raising interest rates.<blockquote>尽管如此，尽管前景光明，Fundstrat团队预计2022年将出现重大动荡，尤其是今年上半年。这是因为新冠病例可能仍然很高，供应链故障可能持续存在，中期选举可能会加剧不确定性，而且美联储正处于加息的边缘。</blockquote>The question to Lee remains that if those risks are obvious, have they already been discounted by investors?<blockquote>李的问题仍然是，如果这些风险是显而易见的，投资者是否已经低估了它们？</blockquote>Whether they have or not, a 2022 gain of &#34;+12% to +16% probably more appropriate,&#34; Lee said.<blockquote>Lee表示，无论是否有，2022年的涨幅“+12%至+16%可能更合适”。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 could have 16% upside through the end of 2022, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says<blockquote>Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，到2022年底，标普500可能有16%的上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 could have 16% upside through the end of 2022, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says<blockquote>Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，到2022年底，标普500可能有16%的上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarkets insider2021-12-30 16:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 could surge 16% in 2022 to 5,600, according to a note from Fundstrat&#39;s Tom Lee.</li><li>He pointed out that since 1938, returns have been strong for stocks in the year after a 27% gain.</li><li>&#34;Our S&amp;P 500 5,100 by year-end 2022 target looks conservative, but we also expect plenty of turbulence,&#34; Lee said.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5675d806b794ec8372558219eb7863b4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Spencer Platt/Getty Images<blockquote><html><head></head><body><ul><li>根据Fundstrat的Tom Lee的一份报告，标普500到2022年可能会飙升16%，达到5,600点。</li><li>他指出，自1938年以来，股票在上涨27%后的一年中回报率一直很强劲。</li><li>“我们到2022年底标普500达到5,100辆的目标看起来很保守，但我们也预计会出现大量动荡，”Lee表示。</li></ul>斯宾塞·普拉特/盖蒂图片社</body></html></blockquote>Strength in the stock market after a solid 2021 is likely to continue into next year, as momentum continues to drive equities higher, according to Fundstrat&#39;s Tom lee.<blockquote>Fundstrat的Tom lee表示，在经历了稳健的2021年之后，股市的强势可能会持续到明年，因为势头继续推动股市走高。</blockquote>He has already set a S&amp;P 500 price target of 5,100 by the end of 2022,representing potential upside of about 7% from Tuesday&#39;s close. But that estimate could be too conservative, according to a Wednesday note from Fundstrat.<blockquote>他已经将标普500到2022年底的目标价设定为5,100点，较周二收盘价有约7%的潜在上涨空间。但根据Fundstrat周三的一份报告，这一估计可能过于保守。</blockquote>With the S&amp;P 500 up nearly 30% in 2021, a historical analysis of past market returns suggests gains could extend higher into next year. Since 1938, the stock market has generated an average and median annual gain of 12% and 16%, respectively, in the year following a rise of at least 27%, according to Lee.<blockquote>随着标普500在2021年上涨近30%，对过去市场回报的历史分析表明，涨幅可能会延续到明年。Lee表示，自1938年以来，股市的平均年涨幅和中位数分别为12%和16%，此前一年上涨了至少27%。</blockquote>Those potential gains would send the S&amp;P 500 to between 5,400 and 5,600. &#34;Most years post +27% gains are actually very good...thus, we believe our base case of S&amp;P 500 5,100 is conservative,&#34; he said.<blockquote>这些潜在收益将使标普500升至5,400至5,600之间。“大多数年份涨幅超过27%实际上都非常好……因此，我们认为标普500 5,100点的基本情况是保守的，”他说。</blockquote>The rise in stocks isn&#39;t just being driven by momentum. It&#39;s also being buoyed by a strong economic backdrop and rising corporate profits. &#34;The rise in equities, in our view, has been justified by the substantial economic resilience coupled with tremendous operating leverage of businesses,&#34; Lee explained.<blockquote>股市的上涨不仅仅是由势头推动的。强劲的经济背景和不断增长的企业利润也提振了它。李解释说：“我们认为，强劲的经济弹性以及企业巨大的运营杠杆证明了股市上涨的合理性。”</blockquote>Still, despite the bright outlook, the Fundstrat team is expecting significant turbulence in 2022, especially in the first half of the year. That&#39;s because COVID cases could remain elevated, supply-chain glitches may persist, mid-term elections could contribute to uncertainty, and the Fed is on the verge of raising interest rates.<blockquote>尽管如此，尽管前景光明，Fundstrat团队预计2022年将出现重大动荡，尤其是今年上半年。这是因为新冠病例可能仍然很高，供应链故障可能持续存在，中期选举可能会加剧不确定性，而且美联储正处于加息的边缘。</blockquote>The question to Lee remains that if those risks are obvious, have they already been discounted by investors?<blockquote>李的问题仍然是，如果这些风险是显而易见的，投资者是否已经低估了它们？</blockquote>Whether they have or not, a 2022 gain of &#34;+12% to +16% probably more appropriate,&#34; Lee said.<blockquote>Lee表示，无论是否有，2022年的涨幅“+12%至+16%可能更合适”。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-strong-year-signals-more-upside-2022-2021-12\">Markets insider</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-strong-year-signals-more-upside-2022-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125407253","content_text":"The S&P 500 could surge 16% in 2022 to 5,600, according to a note from Fundstrat's Tom Lee.He pointed out that since 1938, returns have been strong for stocks in the year after a 27% gain.\"Our S&P 500 5,100 by year-end 2022 target looks conservative, but we also expect plenty of turbulence,\" Lee said.Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesStrength in the stock market after a solid 2021 is likely to continue into next year, as momentum continues to drive equities higher, according to Fundstrat's Tom lee.He has already set a S&P 500 price target of 5,100 by the end of 2022,representing potential upside of about 7% from Tuesday's close. But that estimate could be too conservative, according to a Wednesday note from Fundstrat.With the S&P 500 up nearly 30% in 2021, a historical analysis of past market returns suggests gains could extend higher into next year. Since 1938, the stock market has generated an average and median annual gain of 12% and 16%, respectively, in the year following a rise of at least 27%, according to Lee.Those potential gains would send the S&P 500 to between 5,400 and 5,600. \"Most years post +27% gains are actually very good...thus, we believe our base case of S&P 500 5,100 is conservative,\" he said.The rise in stocks isn't just being driven by momentum. It's also being buoyed by a strong economic backdrop and rising corporate profits. \"The rise in equities, in our view, has been justified by the substantial economic resilience coupled with tremendous operating leverage of businesses,\" Lee explained.Still, despite the bright outlook, the Fundstrat team is expecting significant turbulence in 2022, especially in the first half of the year. That's because COVID cases could remain elevated, supply-chain glitches may persist, mid-term elections could contribute to uncertainty, and the Fed is on the verge of raising interest rates.The question to Lee remains that if those risks are obvious, have they already been discounted by investors?Whether they have or not, a 2022 gain of \"+12% to +16% probably more appropriate,\" Lee said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4080,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692351978"}