Winn_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-12-30

Winn

AMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我 2022 年及未来十年的首选股票</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":692344288,"tweetId":"692344288","gmtCreate":1640861197844,"gmtModify":1640861197844,"author":{"id":3564048100321619,"idStr":"3564048100321619","authorId":3564048100321619,"authorIdStr":"3564048100321619","name":"TraderHan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Winn</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Winn</body></html>","text":"Winn","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692344288","repostId":1187913769,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187913769","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640853199,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187913769?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 16:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我 2022 年及未来十年的首选股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187913769","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.The company has c","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>AMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.</li><li>The company has captured substantial market share in the CPU segment, and it&#39;s not likely to give up gains.</li><li>AMD should continue to deliver significant revenue growth in future years, and the company is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale.</li><li>While AMD&#39;s stock could consolidate in the near term, shares are likely to appreciate considerably in the long run.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad09afc88b98d84d101279ec2e71adec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>vchal/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>AMD在2021年表现出色，2022年应该是又一个伟大的一年。</li><li>该公司在 CPU 领域占据了可观的市场份额，并且不太可能放弃收益。</li><li>AMD 应该会在未来几年继续实现显着的收入增长，并且随着规模的扩大，该公司的盈利能力也越来越强。</li><li>虽然 AMD 的股票可能会在短期内盘整，但从长远来看，其股价可能会大幅升值。</li></ul>vchal/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote>With a 70% gain over the last year, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been a top performer in the All-Weather Portfolio. The company has tremendous momentum, and it should continue to increase its market share in the CPU segment moving forward. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing substantial revenue growth from the chipmaker in future quarters. Moreover, AMD is growing more profitable and should continue expanding EPS in the coming years. The company&#39;s stock price should have another solid year in 2022. Moreover, AMD&#39;s perpetual growth and increasing profitability should enable the company&#39;s stock to advance notably higher in future years.<blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 股票在去年上涨了 70%，是全天候投资组合中表现最好的股票。该公司拥有巨大的发展势头，未来应该会继续增加其在 CPU 领域的市场份额。因此，我们可能会在未来几个季度继续看到这家芯片制造商的收入大幅增长。此外，AMD 的盈利能力正在增长，并且应该在未来几年继续扩大每股收益。该公司的股价在 2022 年应该会再次表现强劲。此外，AMD 的持续增长和不断增长的盈利能力应该会使该公司的股价在未来几年大幅上涨。</blockquote>AMD 3-Year Chart<blockquote>AMD 3 年图表</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd855019964cf634f5c9c7817fb458b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: StockCharts.com<blockquote>资料来源：StockCharts.com</blockquote>We see that AMD has been on a steady march higher for several years now. The stock has made about a 750% move in just the last three years, making it one of the top-performing large-cap tech stocks on Wall Street in recent years. While shares became technically overbought during the recent run-up, we should see more upside from AMD after a consolidation phase early next year. I also believe that any substantial pullbacks in AMD should be regarded as buying opportunities if they occur in the next few months.<blockquote>我们看到 AMD 几年来一直在稳步走高。该股在过去三年中上涨了约 750%，成为近年来华尔街表现最好的大型科技股之一。虽然股票在技术上在最近的上涨中变得超买，但在明年初的盘整阶段之后，我们应该会看到 AMD 的更多上涨空间。我还认为，如果 AMD 在未来几个月内出现任何大幅回调，都应被视为买入机会。</blockquote>Why AMD Continues To Surge<blockquote>为什么 AMD 持续飙升</blockquote>AMD&#39;s CPU market share hit a 15-year high recently, as the company&#39;s market share continues to climb in the ultra-competitive x86 market. Now, every AMD gain is essentially an Intel (INTC) loss here, and it has been all about AMD lately.<blockquote>AMD的CPU市场份额最近创下了15年来的新高，因为该公司在竞争异常激烈的x86市场的市场份额继续攀升。现在，AMD的每一个收益本质上都是英特尔（INTC）的损失，最近都是关于AMD的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6026105f7bf4779407e601f570ccedd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: cpubenchmark.net<blockquote>来源：cpubenchmark.net</blockquote>We&#39;ve seen AMD&#39;s total CPU market share increase substantially in recent years. The company&#39;s market share has surged from a low of about 20% in 2015-2018 to roughly 40% recently. While we saw a higher market share in the mid-2000s, I don&#39;t believe that AMD&#39;s recent rise will be transitory like 15 years ago. AMD is much more established and far better capitalized now. Moreover, the company&#39;s execution, performance, and chip technology have topped Intel&#39;s in recent years. Therefore, it&#39;s not surprising to see market share gains and extreme stock outperformance over Intel lately.<blockquote>近年来，我们看到 AMD 的总 CPU 市场份额大幅增长。该公司的市场份额已从2015-2018年约20%的低点飙升至近期的约40%。虽然我们在2000年代中期看到了更高的市场份额，但我不认为AMD最近的崛起会像15年前那样是暂时的。AMD 现在更加成熟，资本也更加雄厚。此外，该公司的执行、性能和芯片技术近年来都超过了英特尔。因此，最近市场份额上涨和股票表现优于英特尔也就不足为奇了。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d30db882342612fa2b942da319232d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: cpubenchmark.net<blockquote>来源：cpubenchmark.net</blockquote>If we look at the desktop market where a lot of the gaming occurs, AMD briefly overtook Intel this year, crossing the 50% market share line for the first time since 2006. AMD has seen a rapid rise in this segment from the company&#39;s 20%-25% share about five years ago. Due to AMD&#39;s strong momentum and solid product line, the chipmaker could continue to capture more share in the desktop market in future years. Given the company&#39;s trajectory, AMD has a substantial probability of becoming the leader in the desktop CPU segment, in my view.<blockquote>如果我们看看大量游戏发生的台式机市场，AMD今年短暂超过了英特尔，自2006年以来首次突破50%的市场份额线。AMD 在这一领域的份额从大约五年前的 20%-25% 迅速上升。由于AMD强劲的势头和坚实的产品线，这家芯片制造商可能会在未来几年继续在台式机市场占据更多份额。在我看来，鉴于该公司的发展轨迹，AMD 很有可能成为台式机 CPU 领域的领导者。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82437416408bf193bb7e638a750c90f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: cpubenchmark.net<blockquote>来源：cpubenchmark.net</blockquote>The critical battleground remains the laptop market, where AMD&#39;s market share was down to only around 8% in recent years. However, the company has recently made significant advances capturing nearly 25% of this lucrative market. The move away from cheaper, low-performance devices has helped AMD in this segment. Moreover, the trend toward higher-end performance laptops should enable AMD to retain a larger share of the laptop market in future years. Furthermore, AMD&#39;s robust momentum should allow the company to continue innovating, allowing it to grow its market share from here.<blockquote>关键的战场仍然是笔记本电脑市场，近年来AMD在该市场的市场份额已降至仅8%左右。然而，该公司最近取得了重大进展，占领了这个利润丰厚的市场近 25% 的份额。放弃更便宜、低性能设备有助于 AMD 在这一领域的发展。此外，高端性能笔记本电脑的趋势应该会让AMD在未来几年保持更大的笔记本电脑市场份额。此外，AMD 的强劲势头应该会让该公司继续创新，从而扩大市场份额。</blockquote>AMD vs. Intel<blockquote>AMD 与英特尔</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc483b40eae241e17cc4061f03271595\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote>In recent years, we see AMD&#39;s dramatic outperformance over Intel, and the stock&#39;s trajectory correlates closely with AMD&#39;s continued market share gains in the CPU market. However, even if the company&#39;s market share gain slows down or stagnates in the future, I don&#39;t believe that AMD&#39;s stock will crash. AMD has an established place in the market now. The company&#39;s growth should continue, and even if the stock moves sideways or slightly lower in the near-term, intermediate and longer-term gains should follow.<blockquote>近年来，我们看到 AMD 的表现明显优于英特尔，该股的走势与 AMD 在 CPU 市场的市场份额持续增长密切相关。不过，即便未来该公司的市场份额增长放缓或停滞，我也不相信AMD的股票会暴跌。AMD现在在市场上已经占有一席之地。该公司的增长应该会继续下去，即使股票在短期内横盘或小幅走低，中期和长期的收益也应该会随之而来。</blockquote>Valuation May Seem High But The Growth Is Worth It<blockquote>估值可能看起来很高，但增长是值得的</blockquote>AMD&#39;s consensus EPS forecasts are $3.13 in its next four quarters. This figure puts AMD&#39;s forward P/E ratio at approximately 49. While 49 times forward EPS estimates may seem high, AMD has the growth to support such a multiple.<blockquote>AMD 对未来四个季度每股收益的普遍预测为 3.13 美元。这一数字使 AMD 的远期市盈率约为 49。虽然 49 倍的预期每股收益可能看起来很高，但 AMD 的增长足以支持这样的倍数。</blockquote>EPS Estimates<blockquote>每股收益估计</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ecee7246de09d54f8431a28932f5ca7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: SeekingAlpha.com<blockquote>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</blockquote>Most analysts anticipate AMD will deliver robust double-digit EPS growth for at least several more years moving forward. Consensus EPS estimates are $3.99 in 2023, roughly a 50% rise over this year&#39;s anticipated $2.64 result. Moreover, AMD has illustrated a tenacity for surpassing analysts&#39; expectations.<blockquote>大多数分析师预计，AMD 将在未来至少几年内实现强劲的两位数每股收益增长。2023 年每股收益普遍预期为 3.99 美元，比今年预期的 2.64 美元增长约 50%。此外，AMD 还表现出了超越分析师预期的韧性。</blockquote>EPS Surprises<blockquote>EPS惊喜</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfbefd1757816f8103ba2609c1148c8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: SeekingAlpha.com<blockquote>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</blockquote>AMD has surpassed consensus estimates in seven of its last eight quarters. The company has beat forecasts by an average of 14% in its previous four quarters. Therefore, I anticipate that we will see more outperformance moving forward. Even if AMD beats consensus EPS estimates by an average of only 10% in 2023, the company will deliver about $4.40. This EPS figure implies that AMD is trading at around 35 times 2023 EPS estimates right now. However, due to the company&#39;s powerful momentum, robust growth should continue well beyond 2023.<blockquote>AMD 在过去八个季度中有七个季度超过了市场普遍预期。该公司前四个季度的业绩平均超出预期 14%。因此，我预计未来我们将看到更多优异的表现。即使 AMD 2023 年的每股收益平均仅比普遍预期高出 10%，该公司的收益也将约为 4.40 美元。该每股收益数据意味着 AMD 目前的交易价格约为 2023 年每股收益预期的 35 倍。然而，由于该公司的强劲势头，强劲增长应该会持续到 2023 年之后。</blockquote>Revenue Estimates<blockquote>收入估计</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94249d68f94c71b809df65a4d17238cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: SeekingAlpha.com<blockquote>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</blockquote>We see that double-digit revenue growth should continue at AMD, and this trend of solid revenue growth is likely to persist well beyond 2023. While consensus estimates are $22 billion in 2023, higher-end forecasts imply that the company can deliver north of $24 billion. These are explosive figures provided that AMD reported Q3 2020 revenues of $2.8 billion.<blockquote>我们认为 AMD 的两位数收入增长应该会继续，而且这种稳健的收入增长趋势可能会持续到 2023 年之后。虽然普遍估计 2023 年的销售额为 220 亿美元，但高端预测意味着该公司的销售额将超过 240 亿美元。考虑到 AMD 报告 2020 年第三季度收入为 28 亿美元，这些都是爆炸性的数字。</blockquote>Q3 2021 Financial Information<blockquote>2021 年第三季度财务信息</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b112287e77c3985b0453387ea223cc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: AMD.com<blockquote>资料来源：AMD.com</blockquote>We see that AMD&#39;s revenues surged by a whopping 54% YoY in the company&#39;s latest earnings report. While next year&#39;s Q3 consensus estimates are for an 18% YoY increase, I suspect that AMD can surprise higher, delivering revenue growth north of 20%. In addition to the company&#39;s substantial sales growth, AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable. Last quarter we saw gross profit explode to more than $2 billion, a 70% YoY increase. Moreover, gross profit margin increased substantially from 44% in Q3 2020 to 48% last quarter. Net income skyrocketed by 137% from $390 million to $923 million for the same time frame. We can see that AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale, and we will likely continue to see high profitability growth from AMD as the company advances.<blockquote>我们在该公司最新的收益报告中看到，AMD 的收入同比增长了 54%。虽然明年第三季度的普遍预期是同比增长18%，但我怀疑AMD可能会出人意料地更高，实现20%以上的收入增长。除了公司销售额的大幅增长外，AMD 的盈利能力也越来越强。上季度毛利润飙升至 20 亿美元以上，同比增长 70%。此外，毛利率从2020年第三季度的44%大幅增长至上一季度的48%。同期净利润从 3.9 亿美元飙升至 9.23 亿美元，增长了 137%。我们可以看到，随着规模的扩大，AMD 的盈利能力越来越强，随着公司的发展，我们可能会继续看到 AMD 的高盈利能力增长。</blockquote>Here is what AMD&#39;s financials could look like in future years:<blockquote>以下是 AMD 未来几年的财务状况：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd1ed829c5e52bdad466de22b5e8969\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"407\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Author&#39;s Material<blockquote>资料来源：作者资料</blockquote>The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote>I expect AMD will continue to expand sales at 15%-20% annually through 2025, after which the company&#39;s revenue growth should slow into the 8%-10% range toward the end of the decade. However, AMD&#39;s EPS should be considerably higher by this time, roughly $15-$20. Therefore, even a substantially lower P/E multiple should provide us with a stock price much higher than we see today. If AMD continues to execute well in the coming years, I expect the company&#39;s share price to appreciate to about $500 by 2030.<blockquote>我预计到 2025 年，AMD 将继续以每年 15%-20% 的速度扩张销售额，之后该公司的收入增长应该会在本十年末放缓至 8%-10% 的范围。然而，此时 AMD 的每股收益应该会高得多，大约 15-20 美元。因此，即使市盈率大幅降低，我们的股价也应该比今天高得多。如果 AMD 在未来几年继续表现良好，我预计到 2030 年该公司的股价将升值至 500 美元左右。</blockquote>Risks To AMD<blockquote>AMD面临的风险</blockquote>Despite my bullish outlook for the company, investors must remain aware that risks exist. AMD has a relatively high multiple, and some consider the stock overvalued right now. Therefore, market volatility and further deflation of high multiple stocks could impact AMD&#39;s stock price. Moreover, Intel could bounce back, and the company could begin taking back some of its lost market share. In such a scenario, we could see AMD&#39;s share of the CPU market decline along with the company&#39;s share price. AMD remains an elevated risk/reward investment and may not be suitable for conservative investors.<blockquote>尽管我对公司的前景持乐观态度，但投资者必须意识到风险的存在。AMD 的市盈率相对较高，一些人认为该股目前被高估。因此，市场波动和高倍数股票的进一步通货紧缩可能会影响AMD的股价。此外，英特尔可能会反弹，该公司可能会开始夺回部分失去的市场份额。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到 AMD 在 CPU 市场的份额随着公司股价的下降而下降。AMD 仍然是一项高风险/回报投资，可能不适合保守的投资者。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我 2022 年及未来十年的首选股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: My Top Stock Pick For 2022 And The Next Decade<blockquote>AMD：我 2022 年及未来十年的首选股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-30 16:33\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>AMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.</li><li>The company has captured substantial market share in the CPU segment, and it&#39;s not likely to give up gains.</li><li>AMD should continue to deliver significant revenue growth in future years, and the company is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale.</li><li>While AMD&#39;s stock could consolidate in the near term, shares are likely to appreciate considerably in the long run.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad09afc88b98d84d101279ec2e71adec\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"896\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>vchal/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>AMD在2021年表现出色，2022年应该是又一个伟大的一年。</li><li>该公司在 CPU 领域占据了可观的市场份额，并且不太可能放弃收益。</li><li>AMD 应该会在未来几年继续实现显着的收入增长，并且随着规模的扩大，该公司的盈利能力也越来越强。</li><li>虽然 AMD 的股票可能会在短期内盘整，但从长远来看，其股价可能会大幅升值。</li></ul>vchal/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote>With a 70% gain over the last year, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been a top performer in the All-Weather Portfolio. The company has tremendous momentum, and it should continue to increase its market share in the CPU segment moving forward. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing substantial revenue growth from the chipmaker in future quarters. Moreover, AMD is growing more profitable and should continue expanding EPS in the coming years. The company&#39;s stock price should have another solid year in 2022. Moreover, AMD&#39;s perpetual growth and increasing profitability should enable the company&#39;s stock to advance notably higher in future years.<blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 股票在去年上涨了 70%，是全天候投资组合中表现最好的股票。该公司拥有巨大的发展势头，未来应该会继续增加其在 CPU 领域的市场份额。因此，我们可能会在未来几个季度继续看到这家芯片制造商的收入大幅增长。此外，AMD 的盈利能力正在增长，并且应该在未来几年继续扩大每股收益。该公司的股价在 2022 年应该会再次表现强劲。此外，AMD 的持续增长和不断增长的盈利能力应该会使该公司的股价在未来几年大幅上涨。</blockquote>AMD 3-Year Chart<blockquote>AMD 3 年图表</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd855019964cf634f5c9c7817fb458b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: StockCharts.com<blockquote>资料来源：StockCharts.com</blockquote>We see that AMD has been on a steady march higher for several years now. The stock has made about a 750% move in just the last three years, making it one of the top-performing large-cap tech stocks on Wall Street in recent years. While shares became technically overbought during the recent run-up, we should see more upside from AMD after a consolidation phase early next year. I also believe that any substantial pullbacks in AMD should be regarded as buying opportunities if they occur in the next few months.<blockquote>我们看到 AMD 几年来一直在稳步走高。该股在过去三年中上涨了约 750%，成为近年来华尔街表现最好的大型科技股之一。虽然股票在技术上在最近的上涨中变得超买，但在明年初的盘整阶段之后，我们应该会看到 AMD 的更多上涨空间。我还认为，如果 AMD 在未来几个月内出现任何大幅回调，都应被视为买入机会。</blockquote>Why AMD Continues To Surge<blockquote>为什么 AMD 持续飙升</blockquote>AMD&#39;s CPU market share hit a 15-year high recently, as the company&#39;s market share continues to climb in the ultra-competitive x86 market. Now, every AMD gain is essentially an Intel (INTC) loss here, and it has been all about AMD lately.<blockquote>AMD的CPU市场份额最近创下了15年来的新高，因为该公司在竞争异常激烈的x86市场的市场份额继续攀升。现在，AMD的每一个收益本质上都是英特尔（INTC）的损失，最近都是关于AMD的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6026105f7bf4779407e601f570ccedd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: cpubenchmark.net<blockquote>来源：cpubenchmark.net</blockquote>We&#39;ve seen AMD&#39;s total CPU market share increase substantially in recent years. The company&#39;s market share has surged from a low of about 20% in 2015-2018 to roughly 40% recently. While we saw a higher market share in the mid-2000s, I don&#39;t believe that AMD&#39;s recent rise will be transitory like 15 years ago. AMD is much more established and far better capitalized now. Moreover, the company&#39;s execution, performance, and chip technology have topped Intel&#39;s in recent years. Therefore, it&#39;s not surprising to see market share gains and extreme stock outperformance over Intel lately.<blockquote>近年来，我们看到 AMD 的总 CPU 市场份额大幅增长。该公司的市场份额已从2015-2018年约20%的低点飙升至近期的约40%。虽然我们在2000年代中期看到了更高的市场份额，但我不认为AMD最近的崛起会像15年前那样是暂时的。AMD 现在更加成熟，资本也更加雄厚。此外，该公司的执行、性能和芯片技术近年来都超过了英特尔。因此，最近市场份额上涨和股票表现优于英特尔也就不足为奇了。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76d30db882342612fa2b942da319232d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: cpubenchmark.net<blockquote>来源：cpubenchmark.net</blockquote>If we look at the desktop market where a lot of the gaming occurs, AMD briefly overtook Intel this year, crossing the 50% market share line for the first time since 2006. AMD has seen a rapid rise in this segment from the company&#39;s 20%-25% share about five years ago. Due to AMD&#39;s strong momentum and solid product line, the chipmaker could continue to capture more share in the desktop market in future years. Given the company&#39;s trajectory, AMD has a substantial probability of becoming the leader in the desktop CPU segment, in my view.<blockquote>如果我们看看大量游戏发生的台式机市场，AMD今年短暂超过了英特尔，自2006年以来首次突破50%的市场份额线。AMD 在这一领域的份额从大约五年前的 20%-25% 迅速上升。由于AMD强劲的势头和坚实的产品线，这家芯片制造商可能会在未来几年继续在台式机市场占据更多份额。在我看来，鉴于该公司的发展轨迹，AMD 很有可能成为台式机 CPU 领域的领导者。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82437416408bf193bb7e638a750c90f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: cpubenchmark.net<blockquote>来源：cpubenchmark.net</blockquote>The critical battleground remains the laptop market, where AMD&#39;s market share was down to only around 8% in recent years. However, the company has recently made significant advances capturing nearly 25% of this lucrative market. The move away from cheaper, low-performance devices has helped AMD in this segment. Moreover, the trend toward higher-end performance laptops should enable AMD to retain a larger share of the laptop market in future years. Furthermore, AMD&#39;s robust momentum should allow the company to continue innovating, allowing it to grow its market share from here.<blockquote>关键的战场仍然是笔记本电脑市场，近年来AMD在该市场的市场份额已降至仅8%左右。然而，该公司最近取得了重大进展，占领了这个利润丰厚的市场近 25% 的份额。放弃更便宜、低性能设备有助于 AMD 在这一领域的发展。此外，高端性能笔记本电脑的趋势应该会让AMD在未来几年保持更大的笔记本电脑市场份额。此外，AMD 的强劲势头应该会让该公司继续创新，从而扩大市场份额。</blockquote>AMD vs. Intel<blockquote>AMD 与英特尔</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc483b40eae241e17cc4061f03271595\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote>In recent years, we see AMD&#39;s dramatic outperformance over Intel, and the stock&#39;s trajectory correlates closely with AMD&#39;s continued market share gains in the CPU market. However, even if the company&#39;s market share gain slows down or stagnates in the future, I don&#39;t believe that AMD&#39;s stock will crash. AMD has an established place in the market now. The company&#39;s growth should continue, and even if the stock moves sideways or slightly lower in the near-term, intermediate and longer-term gains should follow.<blockquote>近年来，我们看到 AMD 的表现明显优于英特尔，该股的走势与 AMD 在 CPU 市场的市场份额持续增长密切相关。不过，即便未来该公司的市场份额增长放缓或停滞，我也不相信AMD的股票会暴跌。AMD现在在市场上已经占有一席之地。该公司的增长应该会继续下去，即使股票在短期内横盘或小幅走低，中期和长期的收益也应该会随之而来。</blockquote>Valuation May Seem High But The Growth Is Worth It<blockquote>估值可能看起来很高，但增长是值得的</blockquote>AMD&#39;s consensus EPS forecasts are $3.13 in its next four quarters. This figure puts AMD&#39;s forward P/E ratio at approximately 49. While 49 times forward EPS estimates may seem high, AMD has the growth to support such a multiple.<blockquote>AMD 对未来四个季度每股收益的普遍预测为 3.13 美元。这一数字使 AMD 的远期市盈率约为 49。虽然 49 倍的预期每股收益可能看起来很高，但 AMD 的增长足以支持这样的倍数。</blockquote>EPS Estimates<blockquote>每股收益估计</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ecee7246de09d54f8431a28932f5ca7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: SeekingAlpha.com<blockquote>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</blockquote>Most analysts anticipate AMD will deliver robust double-digit EPS growth for at least several more years moving forward. Consensus EPS estimates are $3.99 in 2023, roughly a 50% rise over this year&#39;s anticipated $2.64 result. Moreover, AMD has illustrated a tenacity for surpassing analysts&#39; expectations.<blockquote>大多数分析师预计，AMD 将在未来至少几年内实现强劲的两位数每股收益增长。2023 年每股收益普遍预期为 3.99 美元，比今年预期的 2.64 美元增长约 50%。此外，AMD 还表现出了超越分析师预期的韧性。</blockquote>EPS Surprises<blockquote>EPS惊喜</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfbefd1757816f8103ba2609c1148c8a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: SeekingAlpha.com<blockquote>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</blockquote>AMD has surpassed consensus estimates in seven of its last eight quarters. The company has beat forecasts by an average of 14% in its previous four quarters. Therefore, I anticipate that we will see more outperformance moving forward. Even if AMD beats consensus EPS estimates by an average of only 10% in 2023, the company will deliver about $4.40. This EPS figure implies that AMD is trading at around 35 times 2023 EPS estimates right now. However, due to the company&#39;s powerful momentum, robust growth should continue well beyond 2023.<blockquote>AMD 在过去八个季度中有七个季度超过了市场普遍预期。该公司前四个季度的业绩平均超出预期 14%。因此，我预计未来我们将看到更多优异的表现。即使 AMD 2023 年的每股收益平均仅比普遍预期高出 10%，该公司的收益也将约为 4.40 美元。该每股收益数据意味着 AMD 目前的交易价格约为 2023 年每股收益预期的 35 倍。然而，由于该公司的强劲势头，强劲增长应该会持续到 2023 年之后。</blockquote>Revenue Estimates<blockquote>收入估计</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94249d68f94c71b809df65a4d17238cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: SeekingAlpha.com<blockquote>资料来源：SeekingAlpha.com</blockquote>We see that double-digit revenue growth should continue at AMD, and this trend of solid revenue growth is likely to persist well beyond 2023. While consensus estimates are $22 billion in 2023, higher-end forecasts imply that the company can deliver north of $24 billion. These are explosive figures provided that AMD reported Q3 2020 revenues of $2.8 billion.<blockquote>我们认为 AMD 的两位数收入增长应该会继续，而且这种稳健的收入增长趋势可能会持续到 2023 年之后。虽然普遍估计 2023 年的销售额为 220 亿美元，但高端预测意味着该公司的销售额将超过 240 亿美元。考虑到 AMD 报告 2020 年第三季度收入为 28 亿美元，这些都是爆炸性的数字。</blockquote>Q3 2021 Financial Information<blockquote>2021 年第三季度财务信息</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b112287e77c3985b0453387ea223cc3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: AMD.com<blockquote>资料来源：AMD.com</blockquote>We see that AMD&#39;s revenues surged by a whopping 54% YoY in the company&#39;s latest earnings report. While next year&#39;s Q3 consensus estimates are for an 18% YoY increase, I suspect that AMD can surprise higher, delivering revenue growth north of 20%. In addition to the company&#39;s substantial sales growth, AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable. Last quarter we saw gross profit explode to more than $2 billion, a 70% YoY increase. Moreover, gross profit margin increased substantially from 44% in Q3 2020 to 48% last quarter. Net income skyrocketed by 137% from $390 million to $923 million for the same time frame. We can see that AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale, and we will likely continue to see high profitability growth from AMD as the company advances.<blockquote>我们在该公司最新的收益报告中看到，AMD 的收入同比增长了 54%。虽然明年第三季度的普遍预期是同比增长18%，但我怀疑AMD可能会出人意料地更高，实现20%以上的收入增长。除了公司销售额的大幅增长外，AMD 的盈利能力也越来越强。上季度毛利润飙升至 20 亿美元以上，同比增长 70%。此外，毛利率从2020年第三季度的44%大幅增长至上一季度的48%。同期净利润从 3.9 亿美元飙升至 9.23 亿美元，增长了 137%。我们可以看到，随着规模的扩大，AMD 的盈利能力越来越强，随着公司的发展，我们可能会继续看到 AMD 的高盈利能力增长。</blockquote>Here is what AMD&#39;s financials could look like in future years:<blockquote>以下是 AMD 未来几年的财务状况：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbd1ed829c5e52bdad466de22b5e8969\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"407\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Author&#39;s Material<blockquote>资料来源：作者资料</blockquote>The Bottom Line<blockquote>底线</blockquote>I expect AMD will continue to expand sales at 15%-20% annually through 2025, after which the company&#39;s revenue growth should slow into the 8%-10% range toward the end of the decade. However, AMD&#39;s EPS should be considerably higher by this time, roughly $15-$20. Therefore, even a substantially lower P/E multiple should provide us with a stock price much higher than we see today. If AMD continues to execute well in the coming years, I expect the company&#39;s share price to appreciate to about $500 by 2030.<blockquote>我预计到 2025 年，AMD 将继续以每年 15%-20% 的速度扩张销售额，之后该公司的收入增长应该会在本十年末放缓至 8%-10% 的范围。然而，此时 AMD 的每股收益应该会高得多，大约 15-20 美元。因此，即使市盈率大幅降低，我们的股价也应该比今天高得多。如果 AMD 在未来几年继续表现良好，我预计到 2030 年该公司的股价将升值至 500 美元左右。</blockquote>Risks To AMD<blockquote>AMD面临的风险</blockquote>Despite my bullish outlook for the company, investors must remain aware that risks exist. AMD has a relatively high multiple, and some consider the stock overvalued right now. Therefore, market volatility and further deflation of high multiple stocks could impact AMD&#39;s stock price. Moreover, Intel could bounce back, and the company could begin taking back some of its lost market share. In such a scenario, we could see AMD&#39;s share of the CPU market decline along with the company&#39;s share price. AMD remains an elevated risk/reward investment and may not be suitable for conservative investors.<blockquote>尽管我对公司的前景持乐观态度，但投资者必须意识到风险的存在。AMD 的市盈率相对较高，一些人认为该股目前被高估。因此，市场波动和高倍数股票的进一步通货紧缩可能会影响AMD的股价。此外，英特尔可能会反弹，该公司可能会开始夺回部分失去的市场份额。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到 AMD 在 CPU 市场的份额随着公司股价的下降而下降。AMD 仍然是一项高风险/回报投资，可能不适合保守的投资者。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477197-amd-my-top-pick-for-2022-and-the-next-decade\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477197-amd-my-top-pick-for-2022-and-the-next-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187913769","content_text":"SummaryAMD has been a top performer in 2021, and 2022 should be another great year.The company has captured substantial market share in the CPU segment, and it's not likely to give up gains.AMD should continue to deliver significant revenue growth in future years, and the company is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale.While AMD's stock could consolidate in the near term, shares are likely to appreciate considerably in the long run.vchal/iStock via Getty ImagesWith a 70% gain over the last year, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has been a top performer in the All-Weather Portfolio. The company has tremendous momentum, and it should continue to increase its market share in the CPU segment moving forward. Therefore, we will likely continue seeing substantial revenue growth from the chipmaker in future quarters. Moreover, AMD is growing more profitable and should continue expanding EPS in the coming years. The company's stock price should have another solid year in 2022. Moreover, AMD's perpetual growth and increasing profitability should enable the company's stock to advance notably higher in future years.AMD 3-Year ChartSource: StockCharts.comWe see that AMD has been on a steady march higher for several years now. The stock has made about a 750% move in just the last three years, making it one of the top-performing large-cap tech stocks on Wall Street in recent years. While shares became technically overbought during the recent run-up, we should see more upside from AMD after a consolidation phase early next year. I also believe that any substantial pullbacks in AMD should be regarded as buying opportunities if they occur in the next few months.Why AMD Continues To SurgeAMD's CPU market share hit a 15-year high recently, as the company's market share continues to climb in the ultra-competitive x86 market. Now, every AMD gain is essentially an Intel (INTC) loss here, and it has been all about AMD lately.Source: cpubenchmark.netWe've seen AMD's total CPU market share increase substantially in recent years. The company's market share has surged from a low of about 20% in 2015-2018 to roughly 40% recently. While we saw a higher market share in the mid-2000s, I don't believe that AMD's recent rise will be transitory like 15 years ago. AMD is much more established and far better capitalized now. Moreover, the company's execution, performance, and chip technology have topped Intel's in recent years. Therefore, it's not surprising to see market share gains and extreme stock outperformance over Intel lately.Source: cpubenchmark.netIf we look at the desktop market where a lot of the gaming occurs, AMD briefly overtook Intel this year, crossing the 50% market share line for the first time since 2006. AMD has seen a rapid rise in this segment from the company's 20%-25% share about five years ago. Due to AMD's strong momentum and solid product line, the chipmaker could continue to capture more share in the desktop market in future years. Given the company's trajectory, AMD has a substantial probability of becoming the leader in the desktop CPU segment, in my view.Source: cpubenchmark.netThe critical battleground remains the laptop market, where AMD's market share was down to only around 8% in recent years. However, the company has recently made significant advances capturing nearly 25% of this lucrative market. The move away from cheaper, low-performance devices has helped AMD in this segment. Moreover, the trend toward higher-end performance laptops should enable AMD to retain a larger share of the laptop market in future years. Furthermore, AMD's robust momentum should allow the company to continue innovating, allowing it to grow its market share from here.AMD vs. IntelData by YChartsIn recent years, we see AMD's dramatic outperformance over Intel, and the stock's trajectory correlates closely with AMD's continued market share gains in the CPU market. However, even if the company's market share gain slows down or stagnates in the future, I don't believe that AMD's stock will crash. AMD has an established place in the market now. The company's growth should continue, and even if the stock moves sideways or slightly lower in the near-term, intermediate and longer-term gains should follow.Valuation May Seem High But The Growth Is Worth ItAMD's consensus EPS forecasts are $3.13 in its next four quarters. This figure puts AMD's forward P/E ratio at approximately 49. While 49 times forward EPS estimates may seem high, AMD has the growth to support such a multiple.EPS EstimatesSource: SeekingAlpha.comMost analysts anticipate AMD will deliver robust double-digit EPS growth for at least several more years moving forward. Consensus EPS estimates are $3.99 in 2023, roughly a 50% rise over this year's anticipated $2.64 result. Moreover, AMD has illustrated a tenacity for surpassing analysts' expectations.EPS SurprisesSource: SeekingAlpha.comAMD has surpassed consensus estimates in seven of its last eight quarters. The company has beat forecasts by an average of 14% in its previous four quarters. Therefore, I anticipate that we will see more outperformance moving forward. Even if AMD beats consensus EPS estimates by an average of only 10% in 2023, the company will deliver about $4.40. This EPS figure implies that AMD is trading at around 35 times 2023 EPS estimates right now. However, due to the company's powerful momentum, robust growth should continue well beyond 2023.Revenue EstimatesSource: SeekingAlpha.comWe see that double-digit revenue growth should continue at AMD, and this trend of solid revenue growth is likely to persist well beyond 2023. While consensus estimates are $22 billion in 2023, higher-end forecasts imply that the company can deliver north of $24 billion. These are explosive figures provided that AMD reported Q3 2020 revenues of $2.8 billion.Q3 2021 Financial InformationSource: AMD.comWe see that AMD's revenues surged by a whopping 54% YoY in the company's latest earnings report. While next year's Q3 consensus estimates are for an 18% YoY increase, I suspect that AMD can surprise higher, delivering revenue growth north of 20%. In addition to the company's substantial sales growth, AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable. Last quarter we saw gross profit explode to more than $2 billion, a 70% YoY increase. Moreover, gross profit margin increased substantially from 44% in Q3 2020 to 48% last quarter. Net income skyrocketed by 137% from $390 million to $923 million for the same time frame. We can see that AMD is becoming increasingly more profitable with scale, and we will likely continue to see high profitability growth from AMD as the company advances.Here is what AMD's financials could look like in future years:Source: Author's MaterialThe Bottom LineI expect AMD will continue to expand sales at 15%-20% annually through 2025, after which the company's revenue growth should slow into the 8%-10% range toward the end of the decade. However, AMD's EPS should be considerably higher by this time, roughly $15-$20. Therefore, even a substantially lower P/E multiple should provide us with a stock price much higher than we see today. If AMD continues to execute well in the coming years, I expect the company's share price to appreciate to about $500 by 2030.Risks To AMDDespite my bullish outlook for the company, investors must remain aware that risks exist. AMD has a relatively high multiple, and some consider the stock overvalued right now. Therefore, market volatility and further deflation of high multiple stocks could impact AMD's stock price. Moreover, Intel could bounce back, and the company could begin taking back some of its lost market share. In such a scenario, we could see AMD's share of the CPU market decline along with the company's share price. AMD remains an elevated risk/reward investment and may not be suitable for conservative investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3107,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692344288"}