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2021-12-31

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Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>

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NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139674064","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and gre","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场的竞争越来越激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使得它们能够要求很高的平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从产量增长的角度来看，它走得更远，我相信它是当今更好的选择。</li></ul>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote>Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.<blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉（TSLA）之外，也有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将对Lucid Group，Inc.(LCID)和蔚来（蔚来）进行对比，这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并探讨两家公司的个别风险。总体而言，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两个选择中更具吸引力的。</blockquote>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market<blockquote>电动汽车市场的Lucid和蔚来</blockquote>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.<blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于600万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，全球销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机汽车。</blockquote>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.<blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY），具体取决于插电式混合动力车的计算方式。蔚来和Lucid Group，Inc.目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约11,000辆汽车，相当于年销量约130,000辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能会超过13万辆，因为交付量应该会继续连续攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid目前的规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已售出数百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group的目标是交付约20,000辆汽车，比2021年增长很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance<blockquote>LCID与蔚来过去的季度表现</blockquote>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:<blockquote>如上所述，蔚来过去三个月的销售业绩远强于Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为LCID刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，从股价来看，Lucid的表现更好：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:<blockquote>过去三个月，LCID上涨了近50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近20%。就蔚来而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而LCID则从Rivian(RIVN)IPO的巨大成功引发的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者购买Lucid的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来今天的价值要高得多：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.<blockquote>该股的交易价格不到共识价格目标的一半，这意味着明年有100%以上的上涨空间，而LCID的交易价格几乎完全符合当前的共识价格目标，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来上个季度的表现不佳似乎使该公司在当前水平上表现强劲，而Lucid则不然。</blockquote>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来关键指标</blockquote>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive AirDreamversion first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.<blockquote>让我们更深入地了解这两家公司的技术、品牌及其具体的主要风险。蔚来和Lucid都活跃在电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉的平均水平。蔚来的平均售价约为7万美元，Lucid的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司销售的是最昂贵的Air梦想版本优先。特斯拉是目前电动汽车的领导者，其平均售价约为50,000美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司怎么能要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价呢？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.<blockquote>例如，蔚来的电池交换技术允许其客户在几分钟内充满“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的900V技术既可以实现巨大的续航里程，又可以实现快速充电速度——Lucid的架构允许客户在短短20分钟内充电长达300英里的电量。作为参考，特斯拉S采用约400V架构，允许客户在15分钟内充电200英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和Lucid的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:<blockquote>蔚来和Lucid的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也很有竞争力。Lucid Air Dream的EPA续航里程为520英里，对于几乎所有用例来说都足够了。与Lucid相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们看看它的高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来ET7配备150kWh电池（也有更小的选择），续航里程可达1,000公里，相当于约620英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和Lucid的表现都很好——旗舰S Plaid的EPA续航里程为350英里。凭借其在为电动赛车开发和供应赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid制造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Lucid presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Lucid演示</blockquote>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.<blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可以降低资源使用量并减轻车辆重量。反过来，这确实会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控和驾驶性能。到目前为止，Lucid还不是当今最大的电动汽车参与者，但其工程师已经开发出了一些目前所有活跃的电动汽车参与者中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:<blockquote>蔚来非常关注最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7使用以下传感单元来实现此目标：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: NIO<blockquote>资料来源：蔚来</blockquote>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).<blockquote>凭借33个高达800万像素的传感器，蔚来的传感能力轻松击败了特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉Model 3已准备好实现全自动驾驶，仅使用8个摄像头，每个摄像头为120万像素。因此，ET7中蔚来的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于M3中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中使用了32个额外的传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是优越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术应用到其车辆中时并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7使用四个NVIDIA(NVDA)Orin SoC，每个SoC每秒提供略高于250万亿次运算，总计算能力超过1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还可以提供自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。应该指出的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，并将未来的软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中不应该是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个板载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3已准备好L5）。</blockquote>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.<blockquote>然而，仅靠强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，因为设计、制造质量等也必须考虑在内。幸运的是，蔚来和Lucid在此基础上竞争非常好，尽管由于销量较低，Lucid的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，并且其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost报道J.D。Power将蔚来评为国内质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid在该国尚未活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和Lucid看起来都很强大，蔚来更关注电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而Lucid则更关注发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有其优势，但我个人认为蔚来从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为没有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业应该会非常方便。</blockquote>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.<blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会给蔚来带来巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车企业将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车企业，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都给予了折扣，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.<blockquote>对于Lucid来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并不是一件容易的事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid可能也是如此，该公司将不得不在未来几个月和几个季度高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的30倍，而且根本不能保证这些收入会真正产生。</blockquote>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid或蔚来股票更值得购买吗？</blockquote>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.<blockquote>蔚来和Lucid都拥有有吸引力的产品，这些产品在越来越多进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎极具竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当以过高的价格买入时，估值可能会成为主要障碍。</blockquote>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.<blockquote>就蔚来而言，这似乎并不是一个过大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值而言，其股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的4倍，与LCID、RIVN、TSLA相比有明显的折扣，等等。另一方面，Lucid的估值非常高，是明年销售额的30倍。</blockquote>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.<blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展，以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两家公司中更好的选择。对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说，最近的股价下跌是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid Vs. NIO Stock: Which EV Stock Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来股票：哪只电动汽车股票更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-30 23:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>The EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.</li><li>Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.</li><li>NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fe01e445aec1bb67f1b8d810f551603\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>电动汽车市场的竞争越来越激烈。拥有强大的品牌或技术对于公司脱颖而出非常重要。</li><li>蔚来和LCID都拥有强大的品牌和出色的技术，这使得它们能够要求很高的平均售价。</li><li>蔚来似乎是这两者中风险较低的选择，而且由于从产量增长的角度来看，它走得更远，我相信它是当今更好的选择。</li></ul>Trygve Finkelsen/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote>Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote>The EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we&#39;ll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we&#39;ll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.<blockquote>电动汽车领域催生了许多从长远来看似乎不太可行的公司，但除了特斯拉（TSLA）之外，也有强有力的竞争者。在本报告中，我们将对Lucid Group，Inc.(LCID)和蔚来（蔚来）进行对比，这两家最有趣的电动汽车公司结合了强大的品牌和高端技术能力。在本报告中，我们将更深入地探讨技术和产品方面，并探讨两家公司的个别风险。总体而言，我确实相信以目前的价格来看，蔚来是这两个选择中更具吸引力的。</blockquote>Lucid And NIO In The EV Market<blockquote>电动汽车市场的Lucid和蔚来</blockquote>The global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.<blockquote>全球电动汽车市场一直在快速增长，电动汽车销量可能略高于600万辆，大约是上一年的两倍。显然，电动汽车是全球汽车市场的一个巨大增长领域，尽管应该指出的是，全球销售的大多数车辆仍然由内燃机驱动。多年来，电动汽车市场份额应该会继续快速攀升，但电动汽车似乎不会很快主导内燃机汽车。</blockquote>The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.<blockquote>电动汽车领域的市场领导者是特斯拉和比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY），以及大众汽车（OTCPK：VWAGY），具体取决于插电式混合动力车的计算方式。蔚来和Lucid Group，Inc.目前还不是最大的公司。蔚来目前每月销售约11,000辆汽车，相当于年销量约130,000辆。然而，销量一直在快速增长，这就是为什么蔚来明年的销量很可能会超过13万辆，因为交付量应该会继续连续攀升。就交付量而言，Lucid目前的规模要小得多，因为该公司今年可能已售出数百辆汽车。明年，Lucid Group的目标是交付约20,000辆汽车，比2021年增长很多，但与蔚来和许多其他同行明年的交付量相比，这个数字仍然相对较小。</blockquote>LCID Vs. NIO&#39;s Past Quarterly Performance<blockquote>LCID与蔚来过去的季度表现</blockquote>As noted above, NIO&#39;s sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:<blockquote>如上所述，蔚来过去三个月的销售业绩远强于Lucid，但这并不奇怪，因为LCID刚刚开始向客户交付车辆。然而，从股价来看，Lucid的表现更好：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a6e7cb1b1485f32cc25ade9f387a5b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote>Over the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO&#39;s case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian&#39;s (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid&#39;s stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:<blockquote>过去三个月，LCID上涨了近50%，而蔚来的股价同期下跌了近20%。就蔚来而言，对中国监管的宏观担忧发挥了作用，而LCID则从Rivian(RIVN)IPO的巨大成功引发的对美国电动汽车企业日益增长的热情中受益匪浅。最重要的是，交付的开始也吸引了新投资者购买Lucid的股票。如果分析师是正确的，那么蔚来今天的价值要高得多：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1d0939d657b284e25d8447ccb211b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote>Shares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO&#39;s underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can&#39;t be said about Lucid.<blockquote>该股的交易价格不到共识价格目标的一半，这意味着明年有100%以上的上涨空间，而LCID的交易价格几乎完全符合当前的共识价格目标，这意味着明年没有上涨空间。因此，蔚来上个季度的表现不佳似乎使该公司在当前水平上表现强劲，而Lucid则不然。</blockquote>Lucid Vs. NIO Key Metrics<blockquote>Lucid与蔚来关键指标</blockquote>Let&#39;s take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO&#39;s ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid&#39;s ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive AirDreamversion first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.<blockquote>让我们更深入地了解这两家公司的技术、品牌及其具体的主要风险。蔚来和Lucid都活跃在电动汽车行业的高端领域，销售的汽车平均售价远高于特斯拉的平均水平。蔚来的平均售价约为7万美元，Lucid的平均售价目前甚至更高，因为该公司销售的是最昂贵的Air梦想版本优先。特斯拉是目前电动汽车的领导者，其平均售价约为50,000美元。因此，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和特斯拉都在更豪华、更高端的细分市场运营。这些公司怎么能要求比特斯拉高得多的平均售价呢？有几个因素在起作用，包括品牌，但最重要的因素之一是他们出色的技术。</blockquote>NIO&#39;s battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully &#34;recharge&#34; in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn&#39;t employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid&#39;s architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO&#39;s solution, as well as Lucid&#39;s solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.<blockquote>例如，蔚来的电池交换技术允许其客户在几分钟内充满“充电”，而大多数其他电动汽车需要更长的时间才能充满电。Lucid不采用电池更换，但其经过赛车测试的900V技术既可以实现巨大的续航里程，又可以实现快速充电速度——Lucid的架构允许客户在短短20分钟内充电长达300英里的电量。作为参考，特斯拉S采用约400V架构，允许客户在15分钟内充电200英里。显然，蔚来的解决方案和Lucid的解决方案似乎都优于特斯拉提供的解决方案。</blockquote>NIO&#39;s and Lucid&#39;s tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:<blockquote>蔚来和Lucid的技术在各自的电池方面看起来也很有竞争力。Lucid Air Dream的EPA续航里程为520英里，对于几乎所有用例来说都足够了。与Lucid相比，蔚来拥有更大的产品组合，但当我们看看它的高端轿车时，电池性能看起来甚至更好。蔚来ET7配备150kWh电池（也有更小的选择），续航里程可达1,000公里，相当于约620英里的续航里程。同样，与特斯拉相比，蔚来和Lucid的表现都很好——旗舰S Plaid的EPA续航里程为350英里。凭借其在为电动赛车开发和供应赛车发动机方面的经验，Lucid制造了一款特别高效的发动机：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf92a9709beceb826f2e86b3bc25dd6\" tg-width=\"1502\" tg-height=\"829\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Lucid presentation<blockquote>资料来源：Lucid演示</blockquote>A smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.<blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，更小、更高效的发动机可以降低资源使用量并减轻车辆重量。反过来，这确实会带来更长的续航里程，并且在其他条件相同的情况下，还可以实现更好的操控和驾驶性能。到目前为止，Lucid还不是当今最大的电动汽车参与者，但其工程师已经开发出了一些目前所有活跃的电动汽车参与者中最引人注目的产品和解决方案。</blockquote>NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:<blockquote>蔚来非常关注最终实现自动驾驶的技术，并在当今的车辆中安装了大量传感器和巨大的计算能力。ET7使用以下传感单元来实现此目标：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39530a306d0b27d76d36bccec0e147d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: NIO<blockquote>资料来源：蔚来</blockquote>With 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO&#39;s sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO&#39;s sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO&#39;s offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO&#39;s self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn&#39;t be a very difficult task. Lucid&#39;s self-driving tech, even though it doesn&#39;t get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO&#39;s Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).<blockquote>凭借33个高达800万像素的传感器，蔚来的传感能力轻松击败了特斯拉。据首席执行官马斯克称，特斯拉Model 3已准备好实现全自动驾驶，仅使用8个摄像头，每个摄像头为120万像素。因此，ET7中蔚来的一个传感器的传感性能几乎相当于M3中所有摄像头的总和，而蔚来在其车型中使用了32个额外的传感器。显然，蔚来的产品是优越的——这显然是有代价的，因为蔚来在将最好的技术应用到其车辆中时并不吝啬。蔚来在ET7中使用的芯片的巨大处理能力也证明了这一点。ET7使用四个NVIDIA(NVDA)Orin SoC，每个SoC每秒提供略高于250万亿次运算，总计算能力超过1,000 TOPS，这在任何量产车中都是闻所未闻的。同时使用四个SoC还可以提供自动驾驶场景中关键系统所需的冗余。应该指出的是，蔚来的自动驾驶技术在软件方面还没有那么出色。至少目前，小鹏汽车（XPEV）等同行似乎采用了更强大的算法，但这是蔚来可以在未来几个季度和几年内解决的问题，并将未来的软件集成到配备顶级硬件的车辆中不应该是一项非常困难的任务。Lucid的自动驾驶技术尽管尚未得到太多认可，但看起来也一点也不差。DreamDrive套件使用32个板载传感器，几乎与蔚来的Aquila系统相当（与M3相比，传感器多4倍，据称从硬件角度来看，M3已准备好L5）。</blockquote>Strong tech alone doesn&#39;t make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles&#39; quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid&#39;s ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.<blockquote>然而，仅靠强大的技术并不能造就一辆有吸引力的汽车，因为设计、制造质量等也必须考虑在内。幸运的是，蔚来和Lucid在此基础上竞争非常好，尽管由于销量较低，Lucid的数据仍然有限——还没有太多人驾驶过Lucid Air，因此有关可靠性等的数据有限。然而，蔚来已经有一段时间每月销售数千辆汽车，并且其用户对车辆的质量非常满意。CnTechPost报道J.D。Power将蔚来评为国内质量最高的电动汽车公司，领先于特斯拉。Lucid在该国尚未活跃，但众多汽车记者和杂志的试驾普遍获得了非常积极的评价。因此，从设计、质量和技术的角度来看，蔚来和Lucid看起来都很强大，蔚来更关注电池更换和驾驶辅助等客户友好型项目，而Lucid则更关注发动机性能、电池技术等。这两种途径都有其优势，但我个人认为蔚来从其易于使用、客户友好的方法中受益更多，因为没有太多人会根据电池架构等标准购买电动汽车。尽管如此，Lucid开发高性能汽车的能力在未来竞争激烈的电动汽车行业应该会非常方便。</blockquote>With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.<blockquote>对于蔚来，市场现在担心的主要风险似乎是监管/政治。我个人不认为监管会给蔚来带来巨大风险。中国公司从未能够在内燃机汽车领域成功竞争，但随着电动汽车技术给整个全球汽车行业带来变革，中国看到了成为全球汽车强国的机会。伤害蔚来和其他中国电动汽车企业将与这些目标背道而驰，这就是为什么我认为中国更有兴趣培养自己的电动汽车企业，包括蔚来，而不是伤害他们。尽管如此，如今市场对每家中国公司都给予了折扣，蔚来也是如此——这对于那些寻求以低于平均水平的估值买入该公司的人来说可能是一件好事。</blockquote>For Lucid, regulation doesn&#39;t seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as &#34;Production Hell&#34;. The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It&#39;s not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID&#39;s high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year&#39;s expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.<blockquote>对于Lucid来说，监管似乎并不是一个重要的风险。相反，这里的主要风险是高估值和产量增加。正如特斯拉所表明的那样，提高汽车产量并不是一件容易的事。该公司经常不得不与延误和其他问题作斗争，有时被总结为“生产地狱”。Lucid可能也是如此，该公司将不得不在未来几个月和几个季度高速提高产量，以实现其雄心勃勃的生产目标。当然，不能确定它会遇到与其他制造商类似的问题，但由于缺乏经验，这似乎是一个值得关注的相当大的风险。最重要的是，LCID的高估值可能是一个相当大的风险——股票交易价格约为明年预期收入的30倍，而且根本不能保证这些收入会真正产生。</blockquote>Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?<blockquote>Lucid或蔚来股票更值得购买吗？</blockquote>Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.<blockquote>蔚来和Lucid都拥有有吸引力的产品，这些产品在越来越多进入者的电动汽车市场中似乎极具竞争力。我确实相信，在强大的技术、有吸引力的品牌和引人注目的产品质量的推动下，两家公司将在未来几年取得运营成功。然而，运营增长并不一定会导致股价增长，因为当以过高的价格买入时，估值可能会成为主要障碍。</blockquote>In NIO&#39;s case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year&#39;s expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year&#39;s sales.<blockquote>就蔚来而言，这似乎并不是一个过大的风险，因为相对于其他电动汽车公司的估值而言，其股价并不昂贵——蔚来的交易价格约为明年预期收入的4倍，与LCID、RIVN、TSLA相比有明显的折扣，等等。另一方面，Lucid的估值非常高，是明年销售额的30倍。</blockquote>I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.<blockquote>我确实相信，基于其更大的规模、更成熟的业务、更好的增产进展，以及更合理的估值，蔚来是当今这两家公司中更好的选择。对于那些有兴趣拥有这家顶级中国电动汽车公司的人来说，最近的股价下跌是一个有吸引力的切入点。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4477181-lucid-vs-nio-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139674064","content_text":"SummaryThe EV market is getting ever more competitive. Owning strong brands or tech will be important for companies to differentiate themselves from others.Both NIO and LCID have strong brands and great tech, which allow them to demand high ASPs.NIO seems like the lower-risk choice among these two, and due to being a lot farther along from a production ramp perspective, it is, I believe, the better choice today.Trygve Finkelsen/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesArticle ThesisThe EV space has brought up many companies that do not seem too viable in the long run, but there are also strong contenders apart from Tesla (TSLA). In this report, we'll pit Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) and NIO Inc. (NIO) against each other - two of the most interesting EV players that combine strong brands and high-end technological capabilities. In this report, we'll take a deeper dive into the tech and product side and will look at individual risks for both companies. Overall, I do believe that NIO is the more attractive choice among these two at current prices.Lucid And NIO In The EV MarketThe global EV market has been growing rapidly, with EV sales likely coming in a little north of six million, which is roughly twice as high as during the previous year. Clearly, EVs are a huge growth sector in the global automobile market, although it should be noted that most vehicles sold around the world are still powered by internal combustion engines. Over the years, EV market share should continue to climb rapidly, but it is not looking like EVs will dominate ICE vehicles any time soon.The market leaders in the EV space are Tesla and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY), and, depending on how one counts plug-in hybrids, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY). NIO Inc. and Lucid Group, Inc. are not among the largest companies for now. NIO is selling around 11,000 vehicles a month right now, which translates into a ~130,000 annual sales pace. Sales have been growing quickly, however, which is why NIO will most likely sell more than 130,000 vehicles next year, as deliveries should continue to climb sequentially. Lucid is way smaller for now, in terms of deliveries, as the company has likely sold a couple of hundred vehicles this year. Next year, Lucid Group targets deliveries of around 20,000 vehicles - up by a lot versus 2021, but still a relatively small number compared to the deliveries NIO and many other peers will hit next year.LCID Vs. NIO's Past Quarterly PerformanceAs noted above, NIO's sales performance was way stronger than that of Lucid over the last three months, but that was hardly a surprise as LCID just began delivering vehicles to customers. On a share price basis, however, Lucid fared better:Data by YChartsOver the last three months, LCID is up close to 50%, whereas NIO saw its shares drop by close to 20% over the same time frame. In NIO's case, macro worries about Chinese regulation played a role, whereas LCID benefitted a lot from growing enthusiasm for US-based EV players caused by Rivian's (RIVN) huge IPO success. On top of that, the start of deliveries also attracted new investors to Lucid's stock. If analysts are correct, NIO is the much better value today:Data by YChartsShares are trading at less than half the consensus price target, which implies 100%+ upside over the next year, whereas LCID is trading almost perfectly in line with the current consensus price target - which implies no upside over the next year. NIO's underperformance over the last quarter thus seems to position the company well for a strong performance from the current level, whereas the same can't be said about Lucid.Lucid Vs. NIO Key MetricsLet's take a deeper look at the tech of the two companies, as well as at their branding, and their specific key risks. Both NIO and Lucid are active in the high-end segment of the EV industry, selling vehicles with ASPs well north of the average Tesla. NIO's ASP is around $70,000, and Lucid's ASP is even higher than that for now, as the company is selling the most expensive AirDreamversion first. Tesla, the current EV leader, has an ASP of around $50,000. Both NIO and Tesla are thus operating in a more luxurious, higher-end segment of the market compared to Tesla. How are these companies able to demand way higher ASPs than Tesla? There are several factors at play, including branding, but one of the most important factors is their great tech.NIO's battery-swapping technology, for example, allows its customers to fully \"recharge\" in a couple of minutes, while most other EVs take way longer to fully charge. Lucid doesn't employ battery-swapping, but its racing-tested 900V technology allows for both a huge range as well as for fast charging speeds - Lucid's architecture allows customers to charge up to 300 miles worth of energy in just 20 minutes. The Tesla S, for reference, uses a ~400V architecture that allows customers to recharge 200 miles in 15 minutes. Clearly, both NIO's solution, as well as Lucid's solution, seem superior compared to what Tesla is offering.NIO's and Lucid's tech also looks highly competitive when it comes to their respective batteries. The Lucid Air Dream has an EPA range of 520 miles, which should be sufficient for almost all use cases. NIO has a larger product portfolio compared to Lucid, but when we take a look at its top-end sedan, battery performance looks even better. The NIO ET7, with a 150kWh battery (smaller options are available, too), has a range of up to 1,000km, which equates to around 620 miles of range. Again, both NIO and Lucid perform well compared to Tesla - the flagship S Plaid has an EPA range of 350 miles. Thanks to its experience in developing and supplying racing engines for electric race cars, Lucid crafts an especially efficient engine:Source: Lucid presentationA smaller, more efficient engine results in lower resource usage and reduces the weight of the vehicle, all else equal. This does, in turn, lead to a longer range, and it also allows for better handling and driving performance, all else equal. Lucid is by far not the biggest EV player today, but its engineers have developed some of the most compelling products and solutions among all currently active EV players.NIO puts a lot of focus on technologies that will eventually allow for autonomous driving and puts massive numbers of sensors and huge computing power in its vehicles today. The ET7 uses the following sensing units for that goal:Source: NIOWith 33 sensors that use up to 8MP, NIO's sensing capabilities easily blow away those of Tesla. The Tesla Model 3, which is, according to CEO Musk, ready for full-self-driving, only uses 8 cameras with 1.2MP each. One of NIO's sensors in the ET7 thus has almost as much sensing performance as all of the cameras in the M3 combined - and NIO uses 32 additional sensors in its model. Clearly, NIO's offering is superior - and that obviously comes at a price, as NIO is not skimping when it comes to putting the best tech in its vehicles. This is also showcased by the massive processing power of the chips NIO uses in the ET7. The ET7 uses four NVIDIA (NVDA) Orin SoCs, each of which offers slightly more than 250 trillion operations per second, which makes for combined computing power of more than 1,000 TOPS - unheard of in any production vehicle. Using four SoCs at the same time also provides for the redundancy that is required for critical systems in a self-driving scenario. it should be noted that NIO's self-driving tech is not as excellent on the software side - yet. At least for now, peers such as XPeng (XPEV) seem to employ the stronger algorithms, but that is a problem that NIO can solve over the coming quarters and years, and integrating future software in its vehicles that come with top-notch hardware shouldn't be a very difficult task. Lucid's self-driving tech, even though it doesn't get a lot of recognition yet, is not looking bad at all, either. The DreamDrive suite utilizes 32 onboard sensors, almost on par with NIO's Aquila system (and 4x more sensors compared to the M3, which is allegedly L5 ready from a hardware perspective).Strong tech alone doesn't make for an attractive vehicle, however, as design, manufacturing quality, etc. have to be considered as well. Luckily, both NIO and Lucid compete very well on that basis, although the data on Lucid is still limited due to the low sales numbers - not too many people have driven a Lucid Air yet, thus data about reliability, etc. is limited. NIO, however, has been selling thousands of vehicles a month for quite some time, and its users are very satisfied with the vehicles' quality. CnTechPost reports that J.D. Power has rated NIO the highest-quality EV company in China, ahead of Tesla. Lucid is not active in the country yet, but test drives by a wide range of auto journalists and magazines have generally resulted in very positive reviews. Both NIO and Lucid thus look strong from a design, quality, and tech perspective, with NIO putting more focus on customer-friendly items such as battery-swapping and driving assistance, whereas Lucid puts more focus on engine performance, battery tech, etc. Both avenues have their advantages, but I personally could see NIO benefit more from its easy-to-use, customer-friendly approach, as not too many people will buy an EV based on criteria such as the battery architecture. Still, Lucid's ability to develop high-performing vehicles should come in very handy in the highly competitive EV industry going forward.With NIO, the main risk the market seems to worry about now is regulation/politics. I personally do not believe that regulation will be a huge risk for NIO. Chinese companies never were able to compete successfully in the ICE vehicle space, but with EV technologies bringing change to the entire global automobile industry, China saw its chance to become a global automobile powerhouse. Hurting NIO and other Chinese EV players would run contrary to those goals, which is why I believe that China is more interested in nurturing its own EV players, including NIO, instead of hurting them. Still, the market puts a discount on every Chinese company today, and that holds true for NIO as well - which might be a good thing for those seeking to buy into the company at a below-average valuation.For Lucid, regulation doesn't seem like an important risk. Instead, the main risks here are the high valuation and the production ramp. As Tesla has shown, ramping up vehicle production is no easy task. The company oftentimes had to battle with delays and other issues, sometimes summarized as \"Production Hell\". The same could hold true for Lucid, which will have to ramp up production at a high speed in the coming months and quarters in order to meet its ambitious production goals. It's not a certainty that it will experience similar issues to other manufacturers, of course, but due to a lack of experience, this seems a considerable risk worth keeping an eye on. On top of that, LCID's high valuation could be a considerable risk - shares trade at around 30x next year's expected revenue, and there is no guarantee at all that those revenues will actually be generated.Is Lucid Or NIO Stock The Better Buy?Both NIO and Lucid have attractive products that seem highly competitive in the EV market that is seeing more and more entrants. I do believe that both companies will have operational success over the coming years, driven by strong tech, attractive brands, and compelling product quality. Operational growth does not necessarily result in share price growth, however, as valuations can be a major hurdle when one buys at a price that is too high.In NIO's case, that does not seem like an overly large risk, as shares are inexpensive relative to how other EV players are valued - NIO trades at ~4x next year's expected revenue, which represents a clear discount compared to LCID, RIVN, TSLA, and so on. Lucid, on the other hand, is trading at a very premium valuation of 30x next year's sales.I do believe that, based on its larger size, more established operations, better progress in ramping production, and due to its much more reasonable valuation, NIO is the better pick among these two today.The recent share price decline makes for an attractive entry point for those interested in owning this top-notch Chinese EV player.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2324,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692174282"}