Hmm_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-12-30

Hmm

This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now<blockquote>该指示器在 2000 年和 2007 年闪烁警告 - 现在它嗡嗡作响</blockquote>

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According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.<blockquote>这与保证金债务有关。Ned Davis Research 高级投资策略师 Ned Davis 表示，保证金债务增长从高水平下降会引发卖出警告。当 15 个月保证金债务变化率低于 48% 时，3 至 18 个月后市场平均较低。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723cd58ba2f1ce67795b98bcdb6038b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.<blockquote>另一个警告信号是，评级机构级股票的市盈率已经捉襟见肘。</blockquote>Yet Davis can&#39;t quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.<blockquote>然而，戴维斯无法让自己完全隐藏在悲观之中。他指出，短期情绪仍然负面，这通常对市场来说是一个好兆头。</blockquote>&#34;I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,&#34; he says. The S&amp;P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.<blockquote>“不过，我想指出的是，在任何反弹之后，突破 12 月低点往往是一个警告信号。因此，我们将密切关注年终反弹，”他说。标普500在12月3日触及12个月以来的最低水平，达到4495.12点。</blockquote>The chart<blockquote>图表</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680edab410becbb2f581220c29faee8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>It&#39;s already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&amp;P 500 was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. &#34;At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,&#34; he said.<blockquote>它已经过时了，但这张显示标普500历史高点的图表被 LPL Financial 首席市场策略师 Ryan Detrick 选为年度图表。美国基准指数已创下 70 个历史新高，为 1995 年以来的最高数字。“归根结底，2021 年创下历史第二高的事实可能比几乎任何其他高点都更能说明问题，”他说。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now<blockquote>该指示器在 2000 年和 2007 年闪烁警告 - 现在它嗡嗡作响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now<blockquote>该指示器在 2000 年和 2007 年闪烁警告 - 现在它嗡嗡作响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-12-30 20:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>They don&#39;t ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here&#39;s an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>这句话说，它们不会在顶部敲响警钟，但这里有一个指标在2000年和2007年达到顶峰。</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88cd20d2460fa528b42d175f5da964a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.<blockquote>保证金债务增长的下降预示着2000年和2007年股市的下跌。</blockquote>It has to do with margin debt. According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.<blockquote>这与保证金债务有关。Ned Davis Research 高级投资策略师 Ned Davis 表示，保证金债务增长从高水平下降会引发卖出警告。当 15 个月保证金债务变化率低于 48% 时，3 至 18 个月后市场平均较低。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723cd58ba2f1ce67795b98bcdb6038b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.<blockquote>另一个警告信号是，评级机构级股票的市盈率已经捉襟见肘。</blockquote>Yet Davis can&#39;t quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.<blockquote>然而，戴维斯无法让自己完全隐藏在悲观之中。他指出，短期情绪仍然负面，这通常对市场来说是一个好兆头。</blockquote>&#34;I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,&#34; he says. The S&amp;P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.<blockquote>“不过，我想指出的是，在任何反弹之后，突破 12 月低点往往是一个警告信号。因此，我们将密切关注年终反弹，”他说。标普500在12月3日触及12个月以来的最低水平，达到4495.12点。</blockquote>The chart<blockquote>图表</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680edab410becbb2f581220c29faee8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>It&#39;s already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&amp;P 500 was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. &#34;At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,&#34; he said.<blockquote>它已经过时了，但这张显示标普500历史高点的图表被 LPL Financial 首席市场策略师 Ryan Detrick 选为年度图表。美国基准指数已创下 70 个历史新高，为 1995 年以来的最高数字。“归根结底，2021 年创下历史第二高的事实可能比几乎任何其他高点都更能说明问题，”他说。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4022":"陆运","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","JNJ":"强生","BK4007":"制药","BK4539":"次新股","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2195949376","content_text":"They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to do with margin debt. According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.Yet Davis can't quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.\"I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,\" he says. The S&P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.The chartIt's already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&P 500 was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. \"At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"JNJ":1,"DIDI":1,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3728,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692125175"}