Hmm_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-12-30

Hmm

This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now<blockquote>该指标在2000年和2007年发出警告——现在它正在嗡嗡作响</blockquote>

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According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.<blockquote>这与保证金债务有关。Ned Davis Research高级投资策略师Ned Davis表示，保证金债务增长从高位下降会触发卖出警告。当保证金债务的15个月变化率低于48%时，平均而言，3至18个月后市场会走低。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723cd58ba2f1ce67795b98bcdb6038b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.<blockquote>另一个警告信号是，评级机构级股票的市盈率过高。</blockquote>Yet Davis can&#39;t quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.<blockquote>然而，戴维斯无法让自己完全披上悲观的外衣。他指出，短期情绪仍然负面，这对市场来说通常是一个好兆头。</blockquote>&#34;I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,&#34; he says. The S&amp;P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.<blockquote>“然而，我要指出的是，在任何反弹之后，突破12月低点通常是一个警告信号。因此，我们将密切关注年底的反弹，”他说。12月3日，标普500触及12个月来的最低水平，达到4,495.12点。</blockquote>The chart<blockquote>图表</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680edab410becbb2f581220c29faee8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>It&#39;s already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&amp;P 500 was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. &#34;At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,&#34; he said.<blockquote>它已经过时了，但这张显示标普500历史高点的图表被LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick选为年度图表。美国基准指数已创下70个历史新高，为1995年以来的最高数字。他说：“归根结底，2021年创下历史第二高的事实可能比几乎任何其他情况都更能说明问题。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now<blockquote>该指标在2000年和2007年发出警告——现在它正在嗡嗡作响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis indicator flashed warnings in 2000 and 2007 -- and it's buzzing now<blockquote>该指标在2000年和2007年发出警告——现在它正在嗡嗡作响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-12-30 20:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>They don&#39;t ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here&#39;s an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>他们的表达方式是这样的，但这里有一个指标在2000年和2007年达到了顶峰。</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88cd20d2460fa528b42d175f5da964a9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.<blockquote>保证金债务增长下降预示着2000年和2007年股市下跌。</blockquote>It has to do with margin debt. According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.<blockquote>这与保证金债务有关。Ned Davis Research高级投资策略师Ned Davis表示，保证金债务增长从高位下降会触发卖出警告。当保证金债务的15个月变化率低于48%时，平均而言，3至18个月后市场会走低。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/723cd58ba2f1ce67795b98bcdb6038b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.<blockquote>另一个警告信号是，评级机构级股票的市盈率过高。</blockquote>Yet Davis can&#39;t quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.<blockquote>然而，戴维斯无法让自己完全披上悲观的外衣。他指出，短期情绪仍然负面，这对市场来说通常是一个好兆头。</blockquote>&#34;I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,&#34; he says. The S&amp;P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.<blockquote>“然而，我要指出的是，在任何反弹之后，突破12月低点通常是一个警告信号。因此，我们将密切关注年底的反弹，”他说。12月3日，标普500触及12个月来的最低水平，达到4,495.12点。</blockquote>The chart<blockquote>图表</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1680edab410becbb2f581220c29faee8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>It&#39;s already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&amp;P 500 was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. &#34;At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,&#34; he said.<blockquote>它已经过时了，但这张显示标普500历史高点的图表被LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick选为年度图表。美国基准指数已创下70个历史新高，为1995年以来的最高数字。他说：“归根结底，2021年创下历史第二高的事实可能比几乎任何其他情况都更能说明问题。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4007":"制药",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4539":"次新股","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","JNJ":"强生","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","BK4022":"陆运","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-indicator-flashed-warnings-in-2000-and-2007-and-its-buzzing-now-11640865332?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2195949376","content_text":"They don't ring a bell at the top, the expression goes, but here's an indicator that topped in 2000 and 2007.Falling margin debt growth has augured in stock-market declines in 2000 and 2007.It has to do with margin debt. According to Ned Davis, senior investment strategist at Ned Davis Research, falling margin debt growth, from high levels, triggers a sell warning. When the 15-month rate of change in margin debt falls below 48%, the market was lower three to 18 months later, on average.Another warning sign is that price-to-earnings ratios on what the firm calls institutional grade stocks are stretched.Yet Davis can't quite bring himself to fully cloak himself in pessimism. Short-term sentiment is still negative, he points out, which usually is a good sign for markets.\"I would note however, that following any rally, a break of the December low is often a warning sign. So we will be watching the year-end rally closely,\" he says. The S&P 500 touched its lowest level for the 12th month on Dec. 3, when it reached 4,495.12.The chartIt's already out of date, but this chart showing all-time highs for the S&P 500 was picked by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist of LPL Financial, as the chart of the year. The benchmark U.S. index has registered 70 record highs, the highest number since 1995. \"At the end of the day, the fact that 2021 had the second-most all-time highs ever probably tells the story better than nearly any other,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DIDI":1,"JNJ":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/692125175"}