WMIING
2021-12-23
K
BlackBerry: Not Enough Progress Yet<blockquote>黑莓：进展还不够</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":691762002,"tweetId":"691762002","gmtCreate":1640246101067,"gmtModify":1640246923586,"author":{"id":3554213821224025,"idStr":"3554213821224025","authorId":3554213821224025,"authorIdStr":"3554213821224025","name":"WMIING","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39217f40d9dc4a9a15fac00f34f63d83","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":64,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>K</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>K</p></body></html>","text":"K","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691762002","repostId":1175449013,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175449013","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640245426,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175449013?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 15:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BlackBerry: Not Enough Progress Yet<blockquote>黑莓：进展还不够</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175449013","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFiscal Q4 revenue guidance was very weak.\nPatent deal still has not been finalized.\nBalance","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Fiscal Q4 revenue guidance was very weak.</li> <li>Patent deal still has not been finalized.</li> <li>Balance sheet only getting worse.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d951cf9a7ed0eeec78dd7079ac3a473\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MF3d/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第四财季收入指引非常疲弱。</li><li>专利交易仍未敲定。</li><li>资产负债表只会变得更糟。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MF3d/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we received fiscal third quarter results from BlackBerry (BB). Investors have been waiting years for the company's turnaround to really materialize, and the stock has greatly underperformed the market under the leadership of CEO John Chen. Tuesday's report again showed the usual headline beats, but the current quarter forecast and somewhat weak business internals left investors scratching their heads.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们收到了黑莓（BB）的第三财季业绩。投资者多年来一直在等待该公司的扭亏为盈真正实现，而在首席执行官陈约翰的领导下，该股的表现大幅跑输大盘。周二的报告再次显示了通常的头条新闻，但当前季度的预测和有些疲软的业务内部让投资者摸不着头脑。</blockquote></p><p> For Q3, revenues came in at $184 million, exactly what I was looking for. This did beat street estimates by about $7.5 million, but only because the average estimate had come down by more than $26 million since the company's previous report. Overall, this was a $34 million revenue drop as compared to the prior year period, with revenue segment results seen in the graphic below. Dollar values are in millions.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的收入为1.84亿美元，这正是我想要的。这确实比华尔街的预期高出了约750万美元，但这只是因为自该公司上次报告以来，平均预期下降了超过2600万美元。总体而言，与去年同期相比，收入下降了3400万美元，收入部门的结果如下图所示。美元价值以百万计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c2ab7a8d0b01277a54c9f66e340262\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Financial supplement document on IR page</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：投资者关系页面上的财务补充文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The IoT segment saw nice growth as expected, with a good chunk of the pandemic behind us and auto sales starting to improve. However, Cyber Security still isn't showing year over year growth just yet, despite the sequential improvement. Licensing revenues continue to struggle as management still hasn't been able to finalize a patent monetization deal. Hopefully, there will be a major update on this in January as management said on the conference call, but this is something that investors were hoping would be done at least 3-6 months ago.</p><p><blockquote>物联网领域正如预期的那样出现了良好的增长，疫情的大部分已经过去，汽车销售也开始改善。然而，尽管连续改善，网络安全仍未显示出同比增长。由于管理层仍未能敲定专利货币化交易，许可收入继续陷入困境。正如管理层在电话会议上所说，希望一月份会有重大更新，但这是投资者至少在3-6个月前就希望完成的事情。</blockquote></p><p> As the company usually does, the adjusted earnings per share figure beat estimates. BlackBerry essentially broke even on a non-GAAP basis, while the street was looking for either a 6 or 7 cent loss depending on what estimate site you use. A good portion of the beat was driven by a $25 million one-time gain in some investment funds the company was holding, while operating expenses were also down a bit on a sequential basis. On a GAAP basis, the company reported a large profit, but this was only due to the fall in BlackBerry shares resulting in the company's convertible bonds being re-valued lower by $110 million. Normalized operating losses came in at $59 million, which was an improvement of $15 million sequentially, but that's still a loss of more than 32 cents for every dollar of revenue generated.</p><p><blockquote>正如该公司通常所做的那样，调整后的每股收益超出了预期。在非GAAP基础上，黑莓基本上实现了收支平衡，而华尔街则预计会出现6或7美分的损失，具体取决于您使用的估算网站。这一增长很大一部分是由该公司持有的一些投资基金一次性收益2500万美元推动的，而运营费用也环比略有下降。按公认会计准则计算，该公司报告了巨额利润，但这只是由于黑莓股价下跌导致该公司可转换债券重估降低了1.1亿美元。正常化运营亏损为5900万美元，比上一季度增加了1500万美元，但每产生一美元收入，亏损仍超过32美分。</blockquote></p><p> A few internal items also showed a little weakness. Total annual recurring revenue (\"ARR\") dipped by $4 million sequentially, as Cyber Security ARR was down $6 million but IoT ARR was up $2 million. This metric continues to be quite weak, while a competitor like CrowdStrike (CRWD) just added $170 million in new ARR in its latest quarter. BlackBerry's deferred revenue balance also declined by $9 million sequentially to $235 million, and is down by $81 million in just the past five quarters.</p><p><blockquote>内部的几个项目也显示出了一点弱点。年度经常性总收入(“ARR”)环比下降400万美元，因为网络安全ARR下降了600万美元，但物联网ARR增加了200万美元。这一指标仍然相当疲软，而CrowdStrike(CRWD)等竞争对手在最近一个季度刚刚增加了1.7亿美元的新ARR。黑莓的递延收入余额也环比下降900万美元至2.35亿美元，仅在过去五个季度就下降了8100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> These weaker internals may not be surprising to those like me who have followed the company, but it did result in much weaker than expected guidance. Management is calling for fiscal Q4 revenues in a range of $175 million to $200 million, but the street was looking for nearly $207 million. This will probably lead to even more future estimate cuts for the fiscal 2023 year that starts in a couple of months. Since the beginning of this calendar year, the average revenue forecast for the company's next fiscal year has gone from a little over $1.05 billion to less than $882 million. Company supporters have been hoping for a better future revenue growth trajectory, but it's taking much longer than expected to happen.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样关注该公司的人来说，这些较弱的内部结构可能并不令人惊讶，但它确实导致了比预期弱得多的指导。管理层预计第四财季收入在1.75亿美元至2亿美元之间，但华尔街预计收入接近2.07亿美元。这可能会导致几个月后开始的2023财年的未来预估进一步下调。自今年年初以来，该公司下一财年的平均收入预测已从略高于10.5亿美元升至不到8.82亿美元。公司支持者一直希望未来的收入增长轨迹会更好，但这需要比预期长得多的时间。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are hoping a patent deal can be completed to bring in some much needed capital. BlackBerry has a somewhat inflexible balance sheet, with nearly 58% of its asset base tied up in either goodwill or intangible assets. The company finished its latest quarter with $772 million in cash against $365 million in debt, although at the current stock price those notes would be converted into shares at $6 per. Given how this year's performance has been rather weak, I'll be curious to see if there are any major goodwill or intangible write-downs at the end of year Q4 report.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望专利交易能够完成，以带来一些急需的资本。黑莓的资产负债表有些不灵活，其近58%的资产基础与商誉或无形资产有关。该公司最近一个季度末拥有7.72亿美元现金，债务为3.65亿美元，尽管按照目前的股价，这些票据将以每股6美元的价格转换为股票。鉴于今年的业绩相当疲软，我很想知道年底第四季度报告中是否有任何重大商誉或无形减记。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even before the weak guidance, analysts have not had a very positive rating on the stock recently. Of the 10 street ratings posted in the last 90 days, 8 are either bearish or very bearish, with just 2 being neutral. The average street price target going into the Q3 report was $8.13 as compared to Tuesday's close of $9.25. Despite a few pops here and there, including the retail trading / meme stock rally earlier this year, BlackBerry shares have been a tremendous laggard. As the chart below shows, they are up just 46% since John Chen was named interim CEO, compared to a nearly 417% gain for the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW).</p><p><blockquote>即使在弱指引之前，分析师最近也没有对该股给予非常积极的评级。在过去90天内发布的10个华尔街评级中，8个要么看跌，要么非常看跌，只有2个为中性。第三季度报告的平均华尔街目标价为8.13美元，而周二收盘价为9.25美元。尽管到处都有一些上涨，包括今年早些时候零售交易/meme股票的上涨，但黑莓的股价一直大幅落后。如下图所示，自John Chen被任命为临时首席执行官以来，该股仅上涨了46%，而iShares美国科技ETF(IYW)的涨幅则接近417%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6dc07cfac1fb43f4fbf77df45ed5b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, the same old story just continues for BlackBerry. The headline numbers showed beats after dramatically reduced estimates, but the internal figures didn't show too much improvement. Management still has not been able to seal a patent deal, and Q4 revenue guidance was much weaker than the street was hoping for. While we should see the top line grow a bit next year, not enough progress is being made yet. Perhaps the stock can rally next month if a patent deal is finally announced, but until then, there isn't a major positive catalyst that investors can cling to.</p><p><blockquote>最终，同样的老故事只是在黑莓继续。总体数据显示，在大幅下调预期后，情况有所好转，但内部数据并未显示出太大改善。管理层仍未能达成专利协议，第四季度收入指引也远弱于华尔街的预期。虽然我们应该会看到明年的营收有所增长，但还没有取得足够的进展。如果专利协议最终宣布，该股下个月可能会上涨，但在此之前，投资者没有可以抓住的重大积极催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackBerry: Not Enough Progress Yet<blockquote>黑莓：进展还不够</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackBerry: Not Enough Progress Yet<blockquote>黑莓：进展还不够</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 15:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Fiscal Q4 revenue guidance was very weak.</li> <li>Patent deal still has not been finalized.</li> <li>Balance sheet only getting worse.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d951cf9a7ed0eeec78dd7079ac3a473\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MF3d/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第四财季收入指引非常疲弱。</li><li>专利交易仍未敲定。</li><li>资产负债表只会变得更糟。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MF3d/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we received fiscal third quarter results from BlackBerry (BB). Investors have been waiting years for the company's turnaround to really materialize, and the stock has greatly underperformed the market under the leadership of CEO John Chen. Tuesday's report again showed the usual headline beats, but the current quarter forecast and somewhat weak business internals left investors scratching their heads.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们收到了黑莓（BB）的第三财季业绩。投资者多年来一直在等待该公司的扭亏为盈真正实现，而在首席执行官陈约翰的领导下，该股的表现大幅跑输大盘。周二的报告再次显示了通常的头条新闻，但当前季度的预测和有些疲软的业务内部让投资者摸不着头脑。</blockquote></p><p> For Q3, revenues came in at $184 million, exactly what I was looking for. This did beat street estimates by about $7.5 million, but only because the average estimate had come down by more than $26 million since the company's previous report. Overall, this was a $34 million revenue drop as compared to the prior year period, with revenue segment results seen in the graphic below. Dollar values are in millions.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的收入为1.84亿美元，这正是我想要的。这确实比华尔街的预期高出了约750万美元，但这只是因为自该公司上次报告以来，平均预期下降了超过2600万美元。总体而言，与去年同期相比，收入下降了3400万美元，收入部门的结果如下图所示。美元价值以百万计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c2ab7a8d0b01277a54c9f66e340262\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Financial supplement document on IR page</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：投资者关系页面上的财务补充文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The IoT segment saw nice growth as expected, with a good chunk of the pandemic behind us and auto sales starting to improve. However, Cyber Security still isn't showing year over year growth just yet, despite the sequential improvement. Licensing revenues continue to struggle as management still hasn't been able to finalize a patent monetization deal. Hopefully, there will be a major update on this in January as management said on the conference call, but this is something that investors were hoping would be done at least 3-6 months ago.</p><p><blockquote>物联网领域正如预期的那样出现了良好的增长，疫情的大部分已经过去，汽车销售也开始改善。然而，尽管连续改善，网络安全仍未显示出同比增长。由于管理层仍未能敲定专利货币化交易，许可收入继续陷入困境。正如管理层在电话会议上所说，希望一月份会有重大更新，但这是投资者至少在3-6个月前就希望完成的事情。</blockquote></p><p> As the company usually does, the adjusted earnings per share figure beat estimates. BlackBerry essentially broke even on a non-GAAP basis, while the street was looking for either a 6 or 7 cent loss depending on what estimate site you use. A good portion of the beat was driven by a $25 million one-time gain in some investment funds the company was holding, while operating expenses were also down a bit on a sequential basis. On a GAAP basis, the company reported a large profit, but this was only due to the fall in BlackBerry shares resulting in the company's convertible bonds being re-valued lower by $110 million. Normalized operating losses came in at $59 million, which was an improvement of $15 million sequentially, but that's still a loss of more than 32 cents for every dollar of revenue generated.</p><p><blockquote>正如该公司通常所做的那样，调整后的每股收益超出了预期。在非GAAP基础上，黑莓基本上实现了收支平衡，而华尔街则预计会出现6或7美分的损失，具体取决于您使用的估算网站。这一增长很大一部分是由该公司持有的一些投资基金一次性收益2500万美元推动的，而运营费用也环比略有下降。按公认会计准则计算，该公司报告了巨额利润，但这只是由于黑莓股价下跌导致该公司可转换债券重估降低了1.1亿美元。正常化运营亏损为5900万美元，比上一季度增加了1500万美元，但每产生一美元收入，亏损仍超过32美分。</blockquote></p><p> A few internal items also showed a little weakness. Total annual recurring revenue (\"ARR\") dipped by $4 million sequentially, as Cyber Security ARR was down $6 million but IoT ARR was up $2 million. This metric continues to be quite weak, while a competitor like CrowdStrike (CRWD) just added $170 million in new ARR in its latest quarter. BlackBerry's deferred revenue balance also declined by $9 million sequentially to $235 million, and is down by $81 million in just the past five quarters.</p><p><blockquote>内部的几个项目也显示出了一点弱点。年度经常性总收入(“ARR”)环比下降400万美元，因为网络安全ARR下降了600万美元，但物联网ARR增加了200万美元。这一指标仍然相当疲软，而CrowdStrike(CRWD)等竞争对手在最近一个季度刚刚增加了1.7亿美元的新ARR。黑莓的递延收入余额也环比下降900万美元至2.35亿美元，仅在过去五个季度就下降了8100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> These weaker internals may not be surprising to those like me who have followed the company, but it did result in much weaker than expected guidance. Management is calling for fiscal Q4 revenues in a range of $175 million to $200 million, but the street was looking for nearly $207 million. This will probably lead to even more future estimate cuts for the fiscal 2023 year that starts in a couple of months. Since the beginning of this calendar year, the average revenue forecast for the company's next fiscal year has gone from a little over $1.05 billion to less than $882 million. Company supporters have been hoping for a better future revenue growth trajectory, but it's taking much longer than expected to happen.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样关注该公司的人来说，这些较弱的内部结构可能并不令人惊讶，但它确实导致了比预期弱得多的指导。管理层预计第四财季收入在1.75亿美元至2亿美元之间，但华尔街预计收入接近2.07亿美元。这可能会导致几个月后开始的2023财年的未来预估进一步下调。自今年年初以来，该公司下一财年的平均收入预测已从略高于10.5亿美元升至不到8.82亿美元。公司支持者一直希望未来的收入增长轨迹会更好，但这需要比预期长得多的时间。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are hoping a patent deal can be completed to bring in some much needed capital. BlackBerry has a somewhat inflexible balance sheet, with nearly 58% of its asset base tied up in either goodwill or intangible assets. The company finished its latest quarter with $772 million in cash against $365 million in debt, although at the current stock price those notes would be converted into shares at $6 per. Given how this year's performance has been rather weak, I'll be curious to see if there are any major goodwill or intangible write-downs at the end of year Q4 report.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望专利交易能够完成，以带来一些急需的资本。黑莓的资产负债表有些不灵活，其近58%的资产基础与商誉或无形资产有关。该公司最近一个季度末拥有7.72亿美元现金，债务为3.65亿美元，尽管按照目前的股价，这些票据将以每股6美元的价格转换为股票。鉴于今年的业绩相当疲软，我很想知道年底第四季度报告中是否有任何重大商誉或无形减记。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Even before the weak guidance, analysts have not had a very positive rating on the stock recently. Of the 10 street ratings posted in the last 90 days, 8 are either bearish or very bearish, with just 2 being neutral. The average street price target going into the Q3 report was $8.13 as compared to Tuesday's close of $9.25. Despite a few pops here and there, including the retail trading / meme stock rally earlier this year, BlackBerry shares have been a tremendous laggard. As the chart below shows, they are up just 46% since John Chen was named interim CEO, compared to a nearly 417% gain for the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW).</p><p><blockquote>即使在弱指引之前，分析师最近也没有对该股给予非常积极的评级。在过去90天内发布的10个华尔街评级中，8个要么看跌，要么非常看跌，只有2个为中性。第三季度报告的平均华尔街目标价为8.13美元，而周二收盘价为9.25美元。尽管到处都有一些上涨，包括今年早些时候零售交易/meme股票的上涨，但黑莓的股价一直大幅落后。如下图所示，自John Chen被任命为临时首席执行官以来，该股仅上涨了46%，而iShares美国科技ETF(IYW)的涨幅则接近417%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6dc07cfac1fb43f4fbf77df45ed5b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"269\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yahoo Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：雅虎财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, the same old story just continues for BlackBerry. The headline numbers showed beats after dramatically reduced estimates, but the internal figures didn't show too much improvement. Management still has not been able to seal a patent deal, and Q4 revenue guidance was much weaker than the street was hoping for. While we should see the top line grow a bit next year, not enough progress is being made yet. Perhaps the stock can rally next month if a patent deal is finally announced, but until then, there isn't a major positive catalyst that investors can cling to.</p><p><blockquote>最终，同样的老故事只是在黑莓继续。总体数据显示，在大幅下调预期后，情况有所好转，但内部数据并未显示出太大改善。管理层仍未能达成专利协议，第四季度收入指引也远弱于华尔街的预期。虽然我们应该会看到明年的营收有所增长，但还没有取得足够的进展。如果专利协议最终宣布，该股下个月可能会上涨，但在此之前，投资者没有可以抓住的重大积极催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476516-blackberry-not-enough-progress-yet\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476516-blackberry-not-enough-progress-yet","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175449013","content_text":"Summary\n\nFiscal Q4 revenue guidance was very weak.\nPatent deal still has not been finalized.\nBalance sheet only getting worse.\n\nMF3d/E+ via Getty Images\nAfter the bell on Tuesday, we received fiscal third quarter results from BlackBerry (BB). Investors have been waiting years for the company's turnaround to really materialize, and the stock has greatly underperformed the market under the leadership of CEO John Chen. Tuesday's report again showed the usual headline beats, but the current quarter forecast and somewhat weak business internals left investors scratching their heads.\nFor Q3, revenues came in at $184 million, exactly what I was looking for. This did beat street estimates by about $7.5 million, but only because the average estimate had come down by more than $26 million since the company's previous report. Overall, this was a $34 million revenue drop as compared to the prior year period, with revenue segment results seen in the graphic below. Dollar values are in millions.\nSource: Financial supplement document on IR page\nThe IoT segment saw nice growth as expected, with a good chunk of the pandemic behind us and auto sales starting to improve. However, Cyber Security still isn't showing year over year growth just yet, despite the sequential improvement. Licensing revenues continue to struggle as management still hasn't been able to finalize a patent monetization deal. Hopefully, there will be a major update on this in January as management said on the conference call, but this is something that investors were hoping would be done at least 3-6 months ago.\nAs the company usually does, the adjusted earnings per share figure beat estimates. BlackBerry essentially broke even on a non-GAAP basis, while the street was looking for either a 6 or 7 cent loss depending on what estimate site you use. A good portion of the beat was driven by a $25 million one-time gain in some investment funds the company was holding, while operating expenses were also down a bit on a sequential basis. On a GAAP basis, the company reported a large profit, but this was only due to the fall in BlackBerry shares resulting in the company's convertible bonds being re-valued lower by $110 million. Normalized operating losses came in at $59 million, which was an improvement of $15 million sequentially, but that's still a loss of more than 32 cents for every dollar of revenue generated.\nA few internal items also showed a little weakness. Total annual recurring revenue (\"ARR\") dipped by $4 million sequentially, as Cyber Security ARR was down $6 million but IoT ARR was up $2 million. This metric continues to be quite weak, while a competitor like CrowdStrike (CRWD) just added $170 million in new ARR in its latest quarter. BlackBerry's deferred revenue balance also declined by $9 million sequentially to $235 million, and is down by $81 million in just the past five quarters.\nThese weaker internals may not be surprising to those like me who have followed the company, but it did result in much weaker than expected guidance. Management is calling for fiscal Q4 revenues in a range of $175 million to $200 million, but the street was looking for nearly $207 million. This will probably lead to even more future estimate cuts for the fiscal 2023 year that starts in a couple of months. Since the beginning of this calendar year, the average revenue forecast for the company's next fiscal year has gone from a little over $1.05 billion to less than $882 million. Company supporters have been hoping for a better future revenue growth trajectory, but it's taking much longer than expected to happen.\nInvestors are hoping a patent deal can be completed to bring in some much needed capital. BlackBerry has a somewhat inflexible balance sheet, with nearly 58% of its asset base tied up in either goodwill or intangible assets. The company finished its latest quarter with $772 million in cash against $365 million in debt, although at the current stock price those notes would be converted into shares at $6 per. Given how this year's performance has been rather weak, I'll be curious to see if there are any major goodwill or intangible write-downs at the end of year Q4 report.\nEven before the weak guidance, analysts have not had a very positive rating on the stock recently. Of the 10 street ratings posted in the last 90 days, 8 are either bearish or very bearish, with just 2 being neutral. The average street price target going into the Q3 report was $8.13 as compared to Tuesday's close of $9.25. Despite a few pops here and there, including the retail trading / meme stock rally earlier this year, BlackBerry shares have been a tremendous laggard. As the chart below shows, they are up just 46% since John Chen was named interim CEO, compared to a nearly 417% gain for the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW).\nSource: Yahoo Finance\nIn the end, the same old story just continues for BlackBerry. The headline numbers showed beats after dramatically reduced estimates, but the internal figures didn't show too much improvement. Management still has not been able to seal a patent deal, and Q4 revenue guidance was much weaker than the street was hoping for. While we should see the top line grow a bit next year, not enough progress is being made yet. Perhaps the stock can rally next month if a patent deal is finally announced, but until then, there isn't a major positive catalyst that investors can cling to.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2745,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691762002"}
精彩评论