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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":691476640,"tweetId":"691476640","gmtCreate":1640234449973,"gmtModify":1640234450193,"author":{"id":3586512925725941,"idStr":"3586512925725941","authorId":3586512925725941,"authorIdStr":"3586512925725941","name":"SALLY123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3645082e74bb8034e0163391e44f18e8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":22,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","text":"ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691476640","repostId":1164868978,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164868978","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640229309,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164868978?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Does This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着2022年投资者的厄运？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164868978","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"While I'm generally skeptical of stock market indicators, investors might want to pay attention to this one.","content":"Key Points<blockquote>要点</blockquote> <ul> <li>Predicting stock market performance is a near-impossible task.</li> <li>The Shiller P/E ratio may be as accurate an indicator as there is.</li> <li>But investors would still do well to focus on the long term.</li> </ul> If someone ever asks me what I think the market is going to do next, I usually reply by saying I have no idea. I believe most investors would be wise to adopt this philosophy.<blockquote><ul><li>预测股市表现几乎是一项不可能完成的任务。</li><li>席勒市盈率可能是最准确的指标。</li><li>但投资者最好还是着眼于长期。</li></ul>如果有人问我认为市场下一步会做什么，我通常会回答说我不知道。我相信大多数投资者采用这种理念是明智的。</blockquote> This still doesn't prevent people from trying to forecast where things will go next. As investors, we want to appear like we know what the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500's performance will be in the future. Then we can position our portfolios accordingly.<blockquote>这仍然不妨碍人们试图预测接下来事情的走向。作为投资者，我们希望表现得好像我们知道标普500的表现将在未来。然后我们可以相应地定位我们的投资组合。</blockquote> But is there a data point out there that can signal with any level of accuracy what future returns will be? Read on to find out.<blockquote>但是，有没有一个数据点可以以任何精度表明未来的回报？请继续阅读，找出答案。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2869216c7d0cbc4c220f60d370cc7938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> Not a bad&nbsp;indicator<blockquote>不错的指标</blockquote> Every once in a while, I think the Shiller&nbsp;price-to-earnings(P/E) ratio, otherwise known as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, can provide a high-level view as to what prospective returns might be over the next decade.This&nbsp;metric is the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 using the average net income of the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation.<blockquote>每隔一段时间，我认为席勒市盈率（P/E），也称为周期性调整市盈率（CAPE），可以提供一个关于未来十年预期回报的高层次视图。该指标是标普500的市盈率，使用前10年的平均净收入，经通货膨胀调整。</blockquote> If that sounds like a mouthful, don't worry. The objective of this data point is to smooth out any fluctuations in earnings. The highest it has ever been previously was in 1929 and 2000, and these times directly preceded bear markets. As you can see below, we are currently at the second highest level in history.<blockquote>如果这听起来很拗口，不要担心。该数据点的目标是消除收益的任何波动。此前的最高纪录是在1929年和2000年，而这两次都是在熊市之前。正如你在下面看到的，我们目前处于历史第二高的水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7fb9cd4886d330700f25d58806f67a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">S&amp;P 500 SHILLER CAPE RATIO DATA BY YCHARTS.<blockquote>YCHARTS提供的标普500·席勒CAPE比率数据。</blockquote> According to Advisor Perspectives, which provides news and commentary for financial advisors, the CAPE ratio explained an incredible 90% of the variation in returns from 1995 to 2020. In other words, for an asset class that's completely random, this is as accurate an indicator as we're going to get.<blockquote>根据为财务顾问提供新闻和评论的Advisor Perspectives的数据，CAPE比率解释了1995年至2020年90%的回报变化。换句话说，对于完全随机的资产类别，这是我们将得到的最准确的指标。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has historically&nbsp;returned an average of 10% per year. But based on today's Shiller P/E ratio of 38, the market could be in for disappointing returns in 2022 and beyond.<blockquote>标普500历史上平均每年回报率为10%。但根据目前38的席勒市盈率，市场在2022年及以后的回报可能会令人失望。</blockquote> However, I don't think investors should panic just yet. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the coronavirus pandemic led to unprecedented amounts of government stimulus to support economic growth. Even with an elevated CAPE ratio over the past 10 years, the stock market just kept climbing higher. Credit the Federal Reserve for perhaps distorting the correlation between the Shiller P/E ratio and future returns.<blockquote>不过，我认为投资者现在还不应该恐慌。2008年和2009年的大衰退以及冠状病毒大流行导致政府采取了前所未有的刺激措施来支持经济增长。尽管过去10年CAPE比率有所上升，但股市仍在不断攀升。相信美联储可能扭曲了席勒市盈率和未来回报之间的相关性。</blockquote> What should&nbsp;investors do?<blockquote>投资者应该怎么做？</blockquote> I firmly believe that you should only invest money in the stock market that you don't need for the next five years. This is because in the near term, the market is extremely unpredictable, but over longer time horizons, the probability of a positive return increases dramatically.<blockquote>我坚信，你应该只把未来五年不需要的钱投入股市。这是因为在短期内，市场是极其不可预测的，但在更长的时间范围内，正回报的概率会急剧增加。</blockquote> With that in mind, if you're looking to put capital to work right now when interest rates are near zero, you really don't have any other option than to invest in the stock market. Although the Shiller P/E ratio might signal a poor decade of returns ahead, where else would you park your money?<blockquote>考虑到这一点，如果你想在利率接近于零的时候立即投入资金，除了投资股市，你真的没有任何其他选择。尽管席勒市盈率可能预示着未来十年的回报不佳，但你还会把钱放在哪里呢？</blockquote> I believe that owning a well-diversified portfolio (at least 25 stocks) of competitively advantaged businesses that have proven track records and solid growth prospects is the best&nbsp;strategy&nbsp;you can pursue. Names like&nbsp;Home Depot&nbsp;(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)immediately come to mind.<blockquote>我相信，拥有一个多元化的投资组合（至少25只股票），其中包括具有竞争优势的企业，这些企业具有良好的业绩记录和稳健的增长前景，是您可以追求的最佳策略。名字像家得宝（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和星巴克（纳斯达克：SBUX）立即浮现在脑海中。</blockquote> The&nbsp;home-improvement giant&nbsp;has grown profits 16% annually over the past 10 years, is able to outshine competitors thanks to its massive scale, and still has huge expansion opportunities thanks to a robust U.S. housing market.<blockquote>这家家装巨头在过去10年中利润每年增长16%，凭借其庞大的规模能够超越竞争对手，并且由于美国房地产市场强劲，仍然拥有巨大的扩张机会。</blockquote> The giant coffeehouse chain possesses a powerful brand, supported by a top-notch loyalty program and premium status that resonates strongly with consumers. Starbucks' management estimates that by 2030, there'll be a&nbsp;whopping 55,000&nbsp;locations worldwide, 63%&nbsp;higher&nbsp;than today's count.<blockquote>这家大型连锁咖啡馆拥有强大的品牌，由一流的忠诚度计划和与消费者产生强烈共鸣的优质地位提供支持。星巴克管理层估计，到2030年，全球门店数量将达到55,000家，比目前的数量增加63%。</blockquote> Focus on what really matters<blockquote>专注于真正重要的事情</blockquote> No matter what the Shiller P/E ratio says, I think Home Depot and Starbucks will continue to do well and be solid additions to anyone's portfolio. This is what investors must focus on. Concentrate intensely on the quality of the companies you own, and you'll surely do well over time.<blockquote>无论席勒市盈率如何，我认为家得宝和星巴克将继续表现良好，并成为任何人投资组合的坚实补充。这是投资者必须重点关注的。专注于你所拥有的公司的质量，随着时间的推移，你肯定会做得很好。</blockquote> Trying to time the market based on whether you think it's cheap or expensive is not a game you want to play. Adding savings at regular intervals -- known as&nbsp;dollar-cost averaging-- reduces any biases you may have andallows you to improve your cost basis on stocks you buy.<blockquote>试图根据您认为市场便宜还是昂贵来把握市场时机并不是您想玩的游戏。定期增加储蓄（称为平均成本法）可以减少您可能存在的任何偏见，并允许您改善购买股票的成本基础。</blockquote> We're living in interesting times. There's still lots of uncertainty in the market today with no shortage of so-called experts telling us what we should do with our money. While the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you can add to your investing arsenal, ignore the noise and keep your eyes on the long term.<blockquote>我们生活在一个有趣的时代。今天的市场仍然存在很多不确定性，不乏所谓的专家告诉我们应该如何处理我们的钱。虽然席勒市盈率是您可以添加到投资武器库中的工具，但请忽略噪音并着眼于长期。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着2022年投资者的厄运？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着2022年投资者的厄运？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMotley Fool2021-12-23 11:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nKey Points<blockquote>要点</blockquote> <ul> <li>Predicting stock market performance is a near-impossible task.</li> <li>The Shiller P/E ratio may be as accurate an indicator as there is.</li> <li>But investors would still do well to focus on the long term.</li> </ul> If someone ever asks me what I think the market is going to do next, I usually reply by saying I have no idea. I believe most investors would be wise to adopt this philosophy.<blockquote><ul><li>预测股市表现几乎是一项不可能完成的任务。</li><li>席勒市盈率可能是最准确的指标。</li><li>但投资者最好还是着眼于长期。</li></ul>如果有人问我认为市场下一步会做什么，我通常会回答说我不知道。我相信大多数投资者采用这种理念是明智的。</blockquote> This still doesn't prevent people from trying to forecast where things will go next. As investors, we want to appear like we know what the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500's performance will be in the future. Then we can position our portfolios accordingly.<blockquote>这仍然不妨碍人们试图预测接下来事情的走向。作为投资者，我们希望表现得好像我们知道标普500的表现将在未来。然后我们可以相应地定位我们的投资组合。</blockquote> But is there a data point out there that can signal with any level of accuracy what future returns will be? Read on to find out.<blockquote>但是，有没有一个数据点可以以任何精度表明未来的回报？请继续阅读，找出答案。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2869216c7d0cbc4c220f60d370cc7938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> Not a bad&nbsp;indicator<blockquote>不错的指标</blockquote> Every once in a while, I think the Shiller&nbsp;price-to-earnings(P/E) ratio, otherwise known as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, can provide a high-level view as to what prospective returns might be over the next decade.This&nbsp;metric is the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 using the average net income of the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation.<blockquote>每隔一段时间，我认为席勒市盈率（P/E），也称为周期性调整市盈率（CAPE），可以提供一个关于未来十年预期回报的高层次视图。该指标是标普500的市盈率，使用前10年的平均净收入，经通货膨胀调整。</blockquote> If that sounds like a mouthful, don't worry. The objective of this data point is to smooth out any fluctuations in earnings. The highest it has ever been previously was in 1929 and 2000, and these times directly preceded bear markets. As you can see below, we are currently at the second highest level in history.<blockquote>如果这听起来很拗口，不要担心。该数据点的目标是消除收益的任何波动。此前的最高纪录是在1929年和2000年，而这两次都是在熊市之前。正如你在下面看到的，我们目前处于历史第二高的水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7fb9cd4886d330700f25d58806f67a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">S&amp;P 500 SHILLER CAPE RATIO DATA BY YCHARTS.<blockquote>YCHARTS提供的标普500·席勒CAPE比率数据。</blockquote> According to Advisor Perspectives, which provides news and commentary for financial advisors, the CAPE ratio explained an incredible 90% of the variation in returns from 1995 to 2020. In other words, for an asset class that's completely random, this is as accurate an indicator as we're going to get.<blockquote>根据为财务顾问提供新闻和评论的Advisor Perspectives的数据，CAPE比率解释了1995年至2020年90%的回报变化。换句话说，对于完全随机的资产类别，这是我们将得到的最准确的指标。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has historically&nbsp;returned an average of 10% per year. But based on today's Shiller P/E ratio of 38, the market could be in for disappointing returns in 2022 and beyond.<blockquote>标普500历史上平均每年回报率为10%。但根据目前38的席勒市盈率，市场在2022年及以后的回报可能会令人失望。</blockquote> However, I don't think investors should panic just yet. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the coronavirus pandemic led to unprecedented amounts of government stimulus to support economic growth. Even with an elevated CAPE ratio over the past 10 years, the stock market just kept climbing higher. Credit the Federal Reserve for perhaps distorting the correlation between the Shiller P/E ratio and future returns.<blockquote>不过，我认为投资者现在还不应该恐慌。2008年和2009年的大衰退以及冠状病毒大流行导致政府采取了前所未有的刺激措施来支持经济增长。尽管过去10年CAPE比率有所上升，但股市仍在不断攀升。相信美联储可能扭曲了席勒市盈率和未来回报之间的相关性。</blockquote> What should&nbsp;investors do?<blockquote>投资者应该怎么做？</blockquote> I firmly believe that you should only invest money in the stock market that you don't need for the next five years. This is because in the near term, the market is extremely unpredictable, but over longer time horizons, the probability of a positive return increases dramatically.<blockquote>我坚信，你应该只把未来五年不需要的钱投入股市。这是因为在短期内，市场是极其不可预测的，但在更长的时间范围内，正回报的概率会急剧增加。</blockquote> With that in mind, if you're looking to put capital to work right now when interest rates are near zero, you really don't have any other option than to invest in the stock market. Although the Shiller P/E ratio might signal a poor decade of returns ahead, where else would you park your money?<blockquote>考虑到这一点，如果你想在利率接近于零的时候立即投入资金，除了投资股市，你真的没有任何其他选择。尽管席勒市盈率可能预示着未来十年的回报不佳，但你还会把钱放在哪里呢？</blockquote> I believe that owning a well-diversified portfolio (at least 25 stocks) of competitively advantaged businesses that have proven track records and solid growth prospects is the best&nbsp;strategy&nbsp;you can pursue. Names like&nbsp;Home Depot&nbsp;(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)immediately come to mind.<blockquote>我相信，拥有一个多元化的投资组合（至少25只股票），其中包括具有竞争优势的企业，这些企业具有良好的业绩记录和稳健的增长前景，是您可以追求的最佳策略。名字像家得宝（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和星巴克（纳斯达克：SBUX）立即浮现在脑海中。</blockquote> The&nbsp;home-improvement giant&nbsp;has grown profits 16% annually over the past 10 years, is able to outshine competitors thanks to its massive scale, and still has huge expansion opportunities thanks to a robust U.S. housing market.<blockquote>这家家装巨头在过去10年中利润每年增长16%，凭借其庞大的规模能够超越竞争对手，并且由于美国房地产市场强劲，仍然拥有巨大的扩张机会。</blockquote> The giant coffeehouse chain possesses a powerful brand, supported by a top-notch loyalty program and premium status that resonates strongly with consumers. Starbucks' management estimates that by 2030, there'll be a&nbsp;whopping 55,000&nbsp;locations worldwide, 63%&nbsp;higher&nbsp;than today's count.<blockquote>这家大型连锁咖啡馆拥有强大的品牌，由一流的忠诚度计划和与消费者产生强烈共鸣的优质地位提供支持。星巴克管理层估计，到2030年，全球门店数量将达到55,000家，比目前的数量增加63%。</blockquote> Focus on what really matters<blockquote>专注于真正重要的事情</blockquote> No matter what the Shiller P/E ratio says, I think Home Depot and Starbucks will continue to do well and be solid additions to anyone's portfolio. This is what investors must focus on. Concentrate intensely on the quality of the companies you own, and you'll surely do well over time.<blockquote>无论席勒市盈率如何，我认为家得宝和星巴克将继续表现良好，并成为任何人投资组合的坚实补充。这是投资者必须重点关注的。专注于你所拥有的公司的质量，随着时间的推移，你肯定会做得很好。</blockquote> Trying to time the market based on whether you think it's cheap or expensive is not a game you want to play. Adding savings at regular intervals -- known as&nbsp;dollar-cost averaging-- reduces any biases you may have andallows you to improve your cost basis on stocks you buy.<blockquote>试图根据您认为市场便宜还是昂贵来把握市场时机并不是您想玩的游戏。定期增加储蓄（称为平均成本法）可以减少您可能存在的任何偏见，并允许您改善购买股票的成本基础。</blockquote> We're living in interesting times. There's still lots of uncertainty in the market today with no shortage of so-called experts telling us what we should do with our money. While the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you can add to your investing arsenal, ignore the noise and keep your eyes on the long term.<blockquote>我们生活在一个有趣的时代。今天的市场仍然存在很多不确定性，不乏所谓的专家告诉我们应该如何处理我们的钱。虽然席勒市盈率是您可以添加到投资武器库中的工具，但请忽略噪音并着眼于长期。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/22/wildly-accurate-sp-500-ratio-signal-doom-2022/\">Motley Fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HD":"家得宝","SBUX":"星巴克",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/22/wildly-accurate-sp-500-ratio-signal-doom-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164868978","content_text":"Key Points\n\nPredicting stock market performance is a near-impossible task.\nThe Shiller P/E ratio may be as accurate an indicator as there is.\nBut investors would still do well to focus on the long term.\n\nIf someone ever asks me what I think the market is going to do next, I usually reply by saying I have no idea. I believe most investors would be wise to adopt this philosophy.\nThis still doesn't prevent people from trying to forecast where things will go next. As investors, we want to appear like we know what the S&P 500's performance will be in the future. Then we can position our portfolios accordingly.\nBut is there a data point out there that can signal with any level of accuracy what future returns will be? Read on to find out.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nNot a bad indicator\nEvery once in a while, I think the Shiller price-to-earnings(P/E) ratio, otherwise known as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, can provide a high-level view as to what prospective returns might be over the next decade.This metric is the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 using the average net income of the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation.\nIf that sounds like a mouthful, don't worry. The objective of this data point is to smooth out any fluctuations in earnings. The highest it has ever been previously was in 1929 and 2000, and these times directly preceded bear markets. As you can see below, we are currently at the second highest level in history.\nS&P 500 SHILLER CAPE RATIO DATA BY YCHARTS.\nAccording to Advisor Perspectives, which provides news and commentary for financial advisors, the CAPE ratio explained an incredible 90% of the variation in returns from 1995 to 2020. In other words, for an asset class that's completely random, this is as accurate an indicator as we're going to get.\nThe S&P 500 has historically returned an average of 10% per year. But based on today's Shiller P/E ratio of 38, the market could be in for disappointing returns in 2022 and beyond.\nHowever, I don't think investors should panic just yet. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the coronavirus pandemic led to unprecedented amounts of government stimulus to support economic growth. Even with an elevated CAPE ratio over the past 10 years, the stock market just kept climbing higher. Credit the Federal Reserve for perhaps distorting the correlation between the Shiller P/E ratio and future returns.\nWhat should investors do?\nI firmly believe that you should only invest money in the stock market that you don't need for the next five years. This is because in the near term, the market is extremely unpredictable, but over longer time horizons, the probability of a positive return increases dramatically.\nWith that in mind, if you're looking to put capital to work right now when interest rates are near zero, you really don't have any other option than to invest in the stock market. Although the Shiller P/E ratio might signal a poor decade of returns ahead, where else would you park your money?\nI believe that owning a well-diversified portfolio (at least 25 stocks) of competitively advantaged businesses that have proven track records and solid growth prospects is the best strategy you can pursue. Names like Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)immediately come to mind.\nThe home-improvement giant has grown profits 16% annually over the past 10 years, is able to outshine competitors thanks to its massive scale, and still has huge expansion opportunities thanks to a robust U.S. housing market.\nThe giant coffeehouse chain possesses a powerful brand, supported by a top-notch loyalty program and premium status that resonates strongly with consumers. Starbucks' management estimates that by 2030, there'll be a whopping 55,000 locations worldwide, 63% higher than today's count.\nFocus on what really matters\nNo matter what the Shiller P/E ratio says, I think Home Depot and Starbucks will continue to do well and be solid additions to anyone's portfolio. This is what investors must focus on. Concentrate intensely on the quality of the companies you own, and you'll surely do well over time.\nTrying to time the market based on whether you think it's cheap or expensive is not a game you want to play. Adding savings at regular intervals -- known as dollar-cost averaging-- reduces any biases you may have andallows you to improve your cost basis on stocks you buy.\nWe're living in interesting times. There's still lots of uncertainty in the market today with no shortage of so-called experts telling us what we should do with our money. While the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you can add to your investing arsenal, ignore the noise and keep your eyes on the long term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SBUX":0.9,"HD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3750,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691476640"}