peakaboo
2021-12-17
Wow okay
YOLO Bets, Deconstructed<blockquote>YOLO赌注，解构</blockquote>
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Maybe th","content":"<p> Meme stock and crypto investors don’t pay much attention to traditional Wall Street advice. Maybe they should.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票和加密货币投资者不太关注传统的华尔街建议。也许他们应该。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin proponents talk about the cryptocurrency hitting $1 million or even its total value reaching $300 trillion. The most enthusiastic “apes” claim to have much of their savings in AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC -0.85% shares and post the #AMC500K hashtag—indicating their belief that the movie chain’s shares will hit $500,000 in the “mother of all short squeezes.”</p><p><blockquote>比特币的支持者谈论加密货币将达到100万美元，甚至其总价值将达到300万亿美元。最热情的“猿”声称他们的大部分积蓄都在AMC院线控股AMC（0.85%的股票）中，并发布了#AMC500K标签——表明他们相信这家电影连锁店的股价将在“所有轧空之母”中达到50万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Leaving aside the obvious problem that these aspirational values for bitcoin and AMC are 15 and 12 times the size of the entire U.S. economy, respectively, even those with more modest targets and big personal bets are ignoring a classic wealth-building formula used by investing legends like Warren Buffett and Bill Gross.</p><p><blockquote>撇开比特币和AMC的这些理想价值分别是整个美国经济规模的15倍和12倍这一明显问题不谈，即使是那些目标更温和、个人赌注更大的人也忽视了投资传奇人物使用的经典财富积累公式。</blockquote></p><p> The Kelly criterion, developed by Bell Labs scientist John L. Kelly Jr. in the 1950s, tells you how much to bet for the highest rate of wealth growth without losing everything.</p><p><blockquote>凯利标准由贝尔实验室科学家小约翰·L·凯利(John L.Kelly Jr.)在20世纪50年代开发，它告诉你在不失去一切的情况下，为最高的财富增长率押注多少。</blockquote></p><p> Investors very convinced in their analysis will make seemingly racy bets when using Kelly—so much so that some investors use a “half-Kelly” formula. After all, big losses on what seemed almost like a sure thing carries professional risk too, like losing clients.</p><p><blockquote>非常相信自己分析的投资者在使用凯利时会做出看似活泼的赌注——以至于一些投资者使用“半凯利”公式。毕竟，看似板上钉钉的事情遭受重大损失也会带来职业风险，比如失去客户。</blockquote></p><p> Even though crypto and meme stock investors often answer to nobody but themselves and have huge expectations, they shouldn’t bet the farm either. They actually should invest less as their expected value increases according to a counterintuitive paper on Kelly betting published by Victor Haghani and James White of Elm Wealth, a research-driven wealth adviser and manager.</p><p><blockquote>尽管加密货币和模因股票投资者通常只对自己负责，并且抱有巨大的期望，但他们也不应该押注于农场。研究驱动型财富顾问和经理Elm Wealth的维克多·哈加尼(Victor Haghani)和詹姆斯·怀特(James White)发表了一篇关于凯利博彩的违反直觉的论文，根据这篇论文，随着预期价值的增加，他们实际上应该减少投资。</blockquote></p><p> They start out with a person who is faced with a 50/50 coin flip. Heads would mean losing everything and tails would mean some level of return. As the payoff rises, the percentage of wealth optimally wagered would too, but only at first. The expected outcome is the average of 50% of zero and 50% of their target. Should they bet more, though, if their “target upside payoff” is 15,000 times their investment instead of just 15 times?</p><p><blockquote>他们从一个面临50/50抛硬币的人开始。正面意味着失去一切，反面意味着某种程度的回报。随着回报的增加，最佳下注的财富百分比也会增加，但只是在开始时。预期结果是零的50%和目标的50%的平均值。然而，如果他们的“目标上行回报”是投资的15,000倍而不是15倍，他们是否应该下更多赌注？</blockquote></p><p> No. A truly gigantic return would make us rich even if we own only a tiny bit of the investment. We would be needlessly risking money by buying any more. In Haghani and White’s intentionally simplified example, the highest share of one’s wealth to bet is about 17% once the upside payoff is between four and eight times your starting investment. From there it declines.</p><p><blockquote>不。即使我们只拥有一小部分投资，真正巨大的回报也会让我们变得富有。我们将不必要地冒金钱风险购买更多。在Haghani和White有意简化的例子中，一旦上行回报是初始投资的4到8倍，可以下注的最高财富份额约为17%。从那里开始下降。</blockquote></p><p> AMC investors might not put the odds of bankruptcy at half, but it also isn’t zero. If some truly believe that AMC stock will be worth half a million dollars then 20 shares costing around $500 at today’s price will be worth a fortune of $10 million. Yet social media is full of people using the hashtag who say they have wagered tens of thousands—much of their wealth—on the stock, and that they won’t sell. Big bets are rarely wise, but especially not if you believe in an astronomically high price target.</p><p><blockquote>AMC投资者可能不会将破产的几率减半，但也不是零。如果有些人真的相信AMC股票价值50万美元，那么按今天的价格计算价值约500美元的20股股票将价值1000万美元。然而，社交媒体上到处都是使用这个标签的人，他们说他们在这只股票上押了数万美元（大部分财富），但他们不会出售。大赌注很少是明智的，尤其是如果你相信一个天文数字的高价格目标。</blockquote></p><p> Highly-paid executives make the same error. Michael Saylor, chief executive officer of software firm Microstrategy, has had the company borrow money to buy bitcoin—a stash now worth about $5 billion. The entire company’s market value was never that high before it began to accumulate the cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>高薪高管也会犯同样的错误。软件公司Microstrategy的首席执行官Michael Saylor已经让该公司借钱收购了比特币——这笔资金现在价值约50亿美元。在开始积累加密货币之前，整个公司的市值从未如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> Its net worth would be sharply negative if bitcoin went to zero, or even back down to what it fetched five years ago. With Mr. Saylor’s stake in the company and personal bitcoin holdings making up much of his estimated $2.2 billion in wealth, according to Forbes, the only way his bet makes sense is if there is virtually no chance of that happening.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币跌至零，甚至跌至五年前的水平，其净资产将大幅为负。据《福布斯》报道，由于塞勒在该公司的股份和个人比特币持股占了他估计22亿美元财富的很大一部分，他的赌注唯一有意义的方式是这种情况几乎没有发生的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> You only live once, but you only need to be wrong once to lose an all-or-nothing bet.</p><p><blockquote>你只能活一次，但你只需要错一次就能输掉一场全有或全无的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>YOLO Bets, Deconstructed<blockquote>YOLO赌注，解构</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYOLO Bets, Deconstructed<blockquote>YOLO赌注，解构</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 07:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> Meme stock and crypto investors don’t pay much attention to traditional Wall Street advice. Maybe they should.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票和加密货币投资者不太关注传统的华尔街建议。也许他们应该。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin proponents talk about the cryptocurrency hitting $1 million or even its total value reaching $300 trillion. The most enthusiastic “apes” claim to have much of their savings in AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC -0.85% shares and post the #AMC500K hashtag—indicating their belief that the movie chain’s shares will hit $500,000 in the “mother of all short squeezes.”</p><p><blockquote>比特币的支持者谈论加密货币将达到100万美元，甚至其总价值将达到300万亿美元。最热情的“猿”声称他们的大部分积蓄都在AMC院线控股AMC（0.85%的股票）中，并发布了#AMC500K标签——表明他们相信这家电影连锁店的股价将在“所有轧空之母”中达到50万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Leaving aside the obvious problem that these aspirational values for bitcoin and AMC are 15 and 12 times the size of the entire U.S. economy, respectively, even those with more modest targets and big personal bets are ignoring a classic wealth-building formula used by investing legends like Warren Buffett and Bill Gross.</p><p><blockquote>撇开比特币和AMC的这些理想价值分别是整个美国经济规模的15倍和12倍这一明显问题不谈，即使是那些目标更温和、个人赌注更大的人也忽视了投资传奇人物使用的经典财富积累公式。</blockquote></p><p> The Kelly criterion, developed by Bell Labs scientist John L. Kelly Jr. in the 1950s, tells you how much to bet for the highest rate of wealth growth without losing everything.</p><p><blockquote>凯利标准由贝尔实验室科学家小约翰·L·凯利(John L.Kelly Jr.)在20世纪50年代开发，它告诉你在不失去一切的情况下，为最高的财富增长率押注多少。</blockquote></p><p> Investors very convinced in their analysis will make seemingly racy bets when using Kelly—so much so that some investors use a “half-Kelly” formula. After all, big losses on what seemed almost like a sure thing carries professional risk too, like losing clients.</p><p><blockquote>非常相信自己分析的投资者在使用凯利时会做出看似活泼的赌注——以至于一些投资者使用“半凯利”公式。毕竟，看似板上钉钉的事情遭受重大损失也会带来职业风险，比如失去客户。</blockquote></p><p> Even though crypto and meme stock investors often answer to nobody but themselves and have huge expectations, they shouldn’t bet the farm either. They actually should invest less as their expected value increases according to a counterintuitive paper on Kelly betting published by Victor Haghani and James White of Elm Wealth, a research-driven wealth adviser and manager.</p><p><blockquote>尽管加密货币和模因股票投资者通常只对自己负责，并且抱有巨大的期望，但他们也不应该押注于农场。研究驱动型财富顾问和经理Elm Wealth的维克多·哈加尼(Victor Haghani)和詹姆斯·怀特(James White)发表了一篇关于凯利博彩的违反直觉的论文，根据这篇论文，随着预期价值的增加，他们实际上应该减少投资。</blockquote></p><p> They start out with a person who is faced with a 50/50 coin flip. Heads would mean losing everything and tails would mean some level of return. As the payoff rises, the percentage of wealth optimally wagered would too, but only at first. The expected outcome is the average of 50% of zero and 50% of their target. Should they bet more, though, if their “target upside payoff” is 15,000 times their investment instead of just 15 times?</p><p><blockquote>他们从一个面临50/50抛硬币的人开始。正面意味着失去一切，反面意味着某种程度的回报。随着回报的增加，最佳下注的财富百分比也会增加，但只是在开始时。预期结果是零的50%和目标的50%的平均值。然而，如果他们的“目标上行回报”是投资的15,000倍而不是15倍，他们是否应该下更多赌注？</blockquote></p><p> No. A truly gigantic return would make us rich even if we own only a tiny bit of the investment. We would be needlessly risking money by buying any more. In Haghani and White’s intentionally simplified example, the highest share of one’s wealth to bet is about 17% once the upside payoff is between four and eight times your starting investment. From there it declines.</p><p><blockquote>不。即使我们只拥有一小部分投资，真正巨大的回报也会让我们变得富有。我们将不必要地冒金钱风险购买更多。在Haghani和White有意简化的例子中，一旦上行回报是初始投资的4到8倍，可以下注的最高财富份额约为17%。从那里开始下降。</blockquote></p><p> AMC investors might not put the odds of bankruptcy at half, but it also isn’t zero. If some truly believe that AMC stock will be worth half a million dollars then 20 shares costing around $500 at today’s price will be worth a fortune of $10 million. Yet social media is full of people using the hashtag who say they have wagered tens of thousands—much of their wealth—on the stock, and that they won’t sell. Big bets are rarely wise, but especially not if you believe in an astronomically high price target.</p><p><blockquote>AMC投资者可能不会将破产的几率减半，但也不是零。如果有些人真的相信AMC股票价值50万美元，那么按今天的价格计算价值约500美元的20股股票将价值1000万美元。然而，社交媒体上到处都是使用这个标签的人，他们说他们在这只股票上押了数万美元（大部分财富），但他们不会出售。大赌注很少是明智的，尤其是如果你相信一个天文数字的高价格目标。</blockquote></p><p> Highly-paid executives make the same error. Michael Saylor, chief executive officer of software firm Microstrategy, has had the company borrow money to buy bitcoin—a stash now worth about $5 billion. The entire company’s market value was never that high before it began to accumulate the cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>高薪高管也会犯同样的错误。软件公司Microstrategy的首席执行官Michael Saylor已经让该公司借钱收购了比特币——这笔资金现在价值约50亿美元。在开始积累加密货币之前，整个公司的市值从未如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> Its net worth would be sharply negative if bitcoin went to zero, or even back down to what it fetched five years ago. With Mr. Saylor’s stake in the company and personal bitcoin holdings making up much of his estimated $2.2 billion in wealth, according to Forbes, the only way his bet makes sense is if there is virtually no chance of that happening.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币跌至零，甚至跌至五年前的水平，其净资产将大幅为负。据《福布斯》报道，由于塞勒在该公司的股份和个人比特币持股占了他估计22亿美元财富的很大一部分，他的赌注唯一有意义的方式是这种情况几乎没有发生的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> You only live once, but you only need to be wrong once to lose an all-or-nothing bet.</p><p><blockquote>你只能活一次，但你只需要错一次就能输掉一场全有或全无的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/yolo-bets-deconstructed-11639667218?mod=rss_markets_main\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/yolo-bets-deconstructed-11639667218?mod=rss_markets_main","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196473478","content_text":"Meme stock and crypto investors don’t pay much attention to traditional Wall Street advice. Maybe they should.\n\nBitcoin proponents talk about the cryptocurrency hitting $1 million or even its total value reaching $300 trillion. The most enthusiastic “apes” claim to have much of their savings in AMC Entertainment Holdings AMC -0.85% shares and post the #AMC500K hashtag—indicating their belief that the movie chain’s shares will hit $500,000 in the “mother of all short squeezes.”\n\nLeaving aside the obvious problem that these aspirational values for bitcoin and AMC are 15 and 12 times the size of the entire U.S. economy, respectively, even those with more modest targets and big personal bets are ignoring a classic wealth-building formula used by investing legends like Warren Buffett and Bill Gross.\n\nThe Kelly criterion, developed by Bell Labs scientist John L. Kelly Jr. in the 1950s, tells you how much to bet for the highest rate of wealth growth without losing everything.\n\nInvestors very convinced in their analysis will make seemingly racy bets when using Kelly—so much so that some investors use a “half-Kelly” formula. After all, big losses on what seemed almost like a sure thing carries professional risk too, like losing clients.\n\nEven though crypto and meme stock investors often answer to nobody but themselves and have huge expectations, they shouldn’t bet the farm either. They actually should invest less as their expected value increases according to a counterintuitive paper on Kelly betting published by Victor Haghani and James White of Elm Wealth, a research-driven wealth adviser and manager.\n\nThey start out with a person who is faced with a 50/50 coin flip. Heads would mean losing everything and tails would mean some level of return. As the payoff rises, the percentage of wealth optimally wagered would too, but only at first. The expected outcome is the average of 50% of zero and 50% of their target. Should they bet more, though, if their “target upside payoff” is 15,000 times their investment instead of just 15 times?\n\n\nNo. A truly gigantic return would make us rich even if we own only a tiny bit of the investment. We would be needlessly risking money by buying any more. In Haghani and White’s intentionally simplified example, the highest share of one’s wealth to bet is about 17% once the upside payoff is between four and eight times your starting investment. From there it declines.\n\nAMC investors might not put the odds of bankruptcy at half, but it also isn’t zero. If some truly believe that AMC stock will be worth half a million dollars then 20 shares costing around $500 at today’s price will be worth a fortune of $10 million. Yet social media is full of people using the hashtag who say they have wagered tens of thousands—much of their wealth—on the stock, and that they won’t sell. Big bets are rarely wise, but especially not if you believe in an astronomically high price target.\n\nHighly-paid executives make the same error. Michael Saylor, chief executive officer of software firm Microstrategy, has had the company borrow money to buy bitcoin—a stash now worth about $5 billion. The entire company’s market value was never that high before it began to accumulate the cryptocurrency.\n\nIts net worth would be sharply negative if bitcoin went to zero, or even back down to what it fetched five years ago. With Mr. Saylor’s stake in the company and personal bitcoin holdings making up much of his estimated $2.2 billion in wealth, according to Forbes, the only way his bet makes sense is if there is virtually no chance of that happening.\n\nYou only live once, but you only need to be wrong once to lose an all-or-nothing bet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"DWAC":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1750,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/690482459"}
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