JemLIm
2022-07-20
Cool
Tesla’s Earnings Are Impossible to Predict. Watch These 2 Points Instead<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利是无法预测的。改看这2点</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":686200815,"tweetId":"686200815","gmtCreate":1658318322838,"gmtModify":1704869611325,"author":{"id":3574813808924805,"idStr":"3574813808924805","authorId":3574813808924805,"authorIdStr":"3574813808924805","name":"JemLIm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9608155c1d123b0bf9fc773916aac7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":76,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cool</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cool</p></body></html>","text":"Cool","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686200815","repostId":1179310436,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179310436","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658306313,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179310436?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-20 16:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Earnings Are Impossible to Predict. Watch These 2 Points Instead<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利是无法预测的。改看这2点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179310436","media":"Barrons","summary":"No one knows what to expect, or what investors will focus on, whenTeslareports its quarterlyearningson Wednesday, but the key points to watch are clear:cash flowand demand.Lockdownsin China to fight C","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>No one knows what to expect, or what investors will focus on, when Tesla reports its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, but the key points to watch are clear: cash flow and demand.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>当特斯拉周三公布季度财报时，没有人知道会发生什么，或者投资者会关注什么，但值得关注的关键点很清楚：现金流和需求。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Lockdowns in China to fight Covid-19 had the effect of constraining production at Tesla (ticker: TSLA), as well as the entire Chinese auto industry, in the second quarter. The output lost at Tesla’s Shanghai plant, which is the company’s most-productive factory, makes it nearly impossible to accurately project the electric-vehicle maker’s profits.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，中国为抗击Covid-19而实施的封锁限制了特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）以及整个中国汽车行业的生产。特斯拉上海工厂是该公司生产力最高的工厂，其产量损失使得准确预测这家电动汽车制造商的利润几乎不可能。</blockquote></p><p>All things considered, Tesla’ should probably earn less than what Wall Street expects. Profit forecasts for the second quarter started out at about $2.30 a share. Now they are at about $1.85, down about 20%. Forecasts for vehicles delivered, on the other hand, started out at about 350,000 units, but the company only delivered 254,695 cars during the quarter. That’s a 27% drop, seven percentage points worse than the decline in estimates.</p><p><blockquote>从各方面考虑，特斯拉的收入可能会低于华尔街的预期。第二季度利润预测开始时约为每股2.30美元。现在价格约为1.85美元，下跌约20%。另一方面，预计交付量约为350,000辆，但该公司本季度仅交付了254,695辆汽车。下降了27%，比预期下降了7个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>Fewer deliveries reduce revenue, but the damage is likely to be worse in terms of profits. At any manufacturing company, percentage losses or gains in sales are typically magnified on the bottom line. Tesla, for instance, had all its fixed costs throughout the second quarter, but it didn’t have all of its production.</p><p><blockquote>交付量减少会减少收入，但就利润而言，损失可能会更严重。在任何制造公司，销售损失或收益的百分比通常会在利润上被放大。例如，特斯拉在整个第二季度都有所有的固定成本，但并没有全部生产。</blockquote></p><p>The setup for the second-quarter results announcement is similar to the situation <i>Barron’s</i> described before Tesla’s first-quarter results came out in April. Tesla had delivered fewer cars than Wall Street expected, but forecasts of earnings barely budged.</p><p><blockquote>二季度业绩公布的设置与情况类似<i>巴伦周刊</i>这是在特斯拉四月份第一季度业绩公布之前描述的。特斯拉的汽车交付量低于华尔街预期，但盈利预测几乎没有变化。</blockquote></p><p>Still, earnings came in higher than expected, at $3.22 a share, about $1 higher than Wall Street projected. Prices for Tesla’s cars turned out to have been better than forecast and inflation didn’t raise costs as much as expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，每股收益仍高于预期，为3.22美元，比华尔街预期高出约1美元。事实证明，特斯拉汽车的价格好于预期，而且通货膨胀并没有像预期那样提高成本。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is still a problem, but vehicle prices continue to march higher. Prices for Tesla vehicles are up in the range of 25% to 30% year over year, according to the company’s website. Rising prices and costs may turn out to have been a wash for Tesla in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀仍然是一个问题，但汽车价格继续上涨。据该公司网站称，特斯拉汽车的价格同比上涨25%至30%。价格和成本的上涨可能会在第二季度对特斯拉造成打击。</blockquote></p><p>But in the first quarter, Chinese production was a record 182,174 units. In the second quarter, because of Covid, production fell to 112,583 cars. That matters because the Shanghai facility is the company’s lowest-cost operation.</p><p><blockquote>但第一季度，中国产量达到创纪录的182,174辆。第二季度，受新冠疫情影响，汽车产量降至112,583辆。这很重要，因为上海工厂是该公司成本最低的运营。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, Tesla was ramping up production up at two new facilities, in Texas and Germany, in the second quarter. CEO Elon Musk referred to those plants as “money furnaces” in a recent interview. That could mean the process of boosting production has gone slower than expected. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for clarification of Musk’s comments.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度提高了位于德克萨斯和德意志的两家新工厂的产量。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在最近的一次采访中将这些工厂称为“金钱熔炉”。这可能意味着增产进程慢于预期。特斯拉没有回应澄清马斯克评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p>All of those complexities mean that Tesla’s second-quarter earnings likely won’t offer a clear picture of the company’s prospects for the near and medium term. It makes more sense to focus on cash flow and order rates.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些复杂性意味着特斯拉第二季度的收益可能无法清楚地反映该公司的中短期前景。关注现金流和订单率更有意义。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus estimate for free cash flow started out the quarter at about $2 billion, but it is now at about $500 million. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu believes Tesla might only break even in terms of free cash flow. That downbeat view comes from a man who rates the stock at Buy, with a target for the share price of $1,580, the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>本季度初自由现金流的普遍估计约为20亿美元，但现在约为5亿美元。New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu认为，特斯拉可能只能在自由现金流方面实现收支平衡。据彭博社报道，这一悲观观点来自一位将该股评级为“买入”的人士，目标股价为1,580美元，为华尔街最高。</blockquote></p><p>If Tesla turns out to have generated any free cash flow in the tough second quarter, investors should be pleased.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉在艰难的第二季度产生了任何自由现金流，投资者应该会感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p>Orders for Tesla cars are another critical indicator, showing how well demand is holding up despite inflation, rising interest rates, and a slowing economy. “Watch the cadence of orders,” says Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas. “The good news for Tesla is they have so many orders.” The wait for a new, base-level, Model Y stretches into the first quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉汽车的订单是另一个关键指标，显示尽管通货膨胀、利率上升和经济放缓，需求仍保持良好。Canaccord分析师George Gianarikas表示：“注意订单的节奏。”“对特斯拉来说，好消息是他们有这么多订单。”对新款基础级Model Y的等待将持续到2023年第一季度。</blockquote></p><p>Whether lead times are increasing or fall is a key factor for Gianarikas. He is positive about the stock, rating it at Buy. His target for the price is $801, which is 25 times his estimate of 2025 earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>对于Gianarikas来说，交货时间是增加还是减少是一个关键因素。他对该股持乐观态度，评级为买入。他的目标价为801美元，是他对2025年每股收益预期的25倍。</blockquote></p><p>Investors will probably have to wait for the earnings conference call to get details about orders and demand from management. Tune in at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives hopes that Tesla will endorse its 50% unit growth guidance. Tesla’s goal is to grow volumes at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. Growth like that would put 2022 deliveries at about 1.4 million units.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能必须等待收益电话会议才能从管理层获得有关订单和需求的详细信息。下午5:30收听。美国东部时间周三。Wedbush分析师Dan Ives希望特斯拉能够认可其50%的单位增长指引。特斯拉的目标是在可预见的未来，销量平均每年增长50%。这样的增长将使2022年的交付量达到约140万辆。</blockquote></p><p>Ives rates Tesla at Buy with a $1,000 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Ives将特斯拉评级为买入，目标价为1,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock is down about 30% so far this year, worse than the 17% and 25% comparable, respective declines of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三交易，特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约30%，低于标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别17%和25%的可比跌幅。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Earnings Are Impossible to Predict. Watch These 2 Points Instead<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利是无法预测的。改看这2点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Earnings Are Impossible to Predict. Watch These 2 Points Instead<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利是无法预测的。改看这2点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-20 16:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>No one knows what to expect, or what investors will focus on, when Tesla reports its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, but the key points to watch are clear: cash flow and demand.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>当特斯拉周三公布季度财报时，没有人知道会发生什么，或者投资者会关注什么，但值得关注的关键点很清楚：现金流和需求。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Lockdowns in China to fight Covid-19 had the effect of constraining production at Tesla (ticker: TSLA), as well as the entire Chinese auto industry, in the second quarter. The output lost at Tesla’s Shanghai plant, which is the company’s most-productive factory, makes it nearly impossible to accurately project the electric-vehicle maker’s profits.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，中国为抗击Covid-19而实施的封锁限制了特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）以及整个中国汽车行业的生产。特斯拉上海工厂是该公司生产力最高的工厂，其产量损失使得准确预测这家电动汽车制造商的利润几乎不可能。</blockquote></p><p>All things considered, Tesla’ should probably earn less than what Wall Street expects. Profit forecasts for the second quarter started out at about $2.30 a share. Now they are at about $1.85, down about 20%. Forecasts for vehicles delivered, on the other hand, started out at about 350,000 units, but the company only delivered 254,695 cars during the quarter. That’s a 27% drop, seven percentage points worse than the decline in estimates.</p><p><blockquote>从各方面考虑，特斯拉的收入可能会低于华尔街的预期。第二季度利润预测开始时约为每股2.30美元。现在价格约为1.85美元，下跌约20%。另一方面，预计交付量约为350,000辆，但该公司本季度仅交付了254,695辆汽车。下降了27%，比预期下降了7个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>Fewer deliveries reduce revenue, but the damage is likely to be worse in terms of profits. At any manufacturing company, percentage losses or gains in sales are typically magnified on the bottom line. Tesla, for instance, had all its fixed costs throughout the second quarter, but it didn’t have all of its production.</p><p><blockquote>交付量减少会减少收入，但就利润而言，损失可能会更严重。在任何制造公司，销售损失或收益的百分比通常会在利润上被放大。例如，特斯拉在整个第二季度都有所有的固定成本，但并没有全部生产。</blockquote></p><p>The setup for the second-quarter results announcement is similar to the situation <i>Barron’s</i> described before Tesla’s first-quarter results came out in April. Tesla had delivered fewer cars than Wall Street expected, but forecasts of earnings barely budged.</p><p><blockquote>二季度业绩公布的设置与情况类似<i>巴伦周刊</i>这是在特斯拉四月份第一季度业绩公布之前描述的。特斯拉的汽车交付量低于华尔街预期，但盈利预测几乎没有变化。</blockquote></p><p>Still, earnings came in higher than expected, at $3.22 a share, about $1 higher than Wall Street projected. Prices for Tesla’s cars turned out to have been better than forecast and inflation didn’t raise costs as much as expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，每股收益仍高于预期，为3.22美元，比华尔街预期高出约1美元。事实证明，特斯拉汽车的价格好于预期，而且通货膨胀并没有像预期那样提高成本。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is still a problem, but vehicle prices continue to march higher. Prices for Tesla vehicles are up in the range of 25% to 30% year over year, according to the company’s website. Rising prices and costs may turn out to have been a wash for Tesla in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀仍然是一个问题，但汽车价格继续上涨。据该公司网站称，特斯拉汽车的价格同比上涨25%至30%。价格和成本的上涨可能会在第二季度对特斯拉造成打击。</blockquote></p><p>But in the first quarter, Chinese production was a record 182,174 units. In the second quarter, because of Covid, production fell to 112,583 cars. That matters because the Shanghai facility is the company’s lowest-cost operation.</p><p><blockquote>但第一季度，中国产量达到创纪录的182,174辆。第二季度，受新冠疫情影响，汽车产量降至112,583辆。这很重要，因为上海工厂是该公司成本最低的运营。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, Tesla was ramping up production up at two new facilities, in Texas and Germany, in the second quarter. CEO Elon Musk referred to those plants as “money furnaces” in a recent interview. That could mean the process of boosting production has gone slower than expected. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for clarification of Musk’s comments.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度提高了位于德克萨斯和德意志的两家新工厂的产量。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在最近的一次采访中将这些工厂称为“金钱熔炉”。这可能意味着增产进程慢于预期。特斯拉没有回应澄清马斯克评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p>All of those complexities mean that Tesla’s second-quarter earnings likely won’t offer a clear picture of the company’s prospects for the near and medium term. It makes more sense to focus on cash flow and order rates.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些复杂性意味着特斯拉第二季度的收益可能无法清楚地反映该公司的中短期前景。关注现金流和订单率更有意义。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus estimate for free cash flow started out the quarter at about $2 billion, but it is now at about $500 million. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu believes Tesla might only break even in terms of free cash flow. That downbeat view comes from a man who rates the stock at Buy, with a target for the share price of $1,580, the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>本季度初自由现金流的普遍估计约为20亿美元，但现在约为5亿美元。New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu认为，特斯拉可能只能在自由现金流方面实现收支平衡。据彭博社报道，这一悲观观点来自一位将该股评级为“买入”的人士，目标股价为1,580美元，为华尔街最高。</blockquote></p><p>If Tesla turns out to have generated any free cash flow in the tough second quarter, investors should be pleased.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉在艰难的第二季度产生了任何自由现金流，投资者应该会感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p>Orders for Tesla cars are another critical indicator, showing how well demand is holding up despite inflation, rising interest rates, and a slowing economy. “Watch the cadence of orders,” says Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas. “The good news for Tesla is they have so many orders.” The wait for a new, base-level, Model Y stretches into the first quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉汽车的订单是另一个关键指标，显示尽管通货膨胀、利率上升和经济放缓，需求仍保持良好。Canaccord分析师George Gianarikas表示：“注意订单的节奏。”“对特斯拉来说，好消息是他们有这么多订单。”对新款基础级Model Y的等待将持续到2023年第一季度。</blockquote></p><p>Whether lead times are increasing or fall is a key factor for Gianarikas. He is positive about the stock, rating it at Buy. His target for the price is $801, which is 25 times his estimate of 2025 earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>对于Gianarikas来说，交货时间是增加还是减少是一个关键因素。他对该股持乐观态度，评级为买入。他的目标价为801美元，是他对2025年每股收益预期的25倍。</blockquote></p><p>Investors will probably have to wait for the earnings conference call to get details about orders and demand from management. Tune in at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives hopes that Tesla will endorse its 50% unit growth guidance. Tesla’s goal is to grow volumes at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. Growth like that would put 2022 deliveries at about 1.4 million units.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能必须等待收益电话会议才能从管理层获得有关订单和需求的详细信息。下午5:30收听。美国东部时间周三。Wedbush分析师Dan Ives希望特斯拉能够认可其50%的单位增长指引。特斯拉的目标是在可预见的未来，销量平均每年增长50%。这样的增长将使2022年的交付量达到约140万辆。</blockquote></p><p>Ives rates Tesla at Buy with a $1,000 price target.</p><p><blockquote>Ives将特斯拉评级为买入，目标价为1,000美元。</blockquote></p><p>Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock is down about 30% so far this year, worse than the 17% and 25% comparable, respective declines of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三交易，特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约30%，低于标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别17%和25%的可比跌幅。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-earnings-what-to-watch-51658170299?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-earnings-what-to-watch-51658170299?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179310436","content_text":"No one knows what to expect, or what investors will focus on, when Tesla reports its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, but the key points to watch are clear: cash flow and demand.Lockdowns in China to fight Covid-19 had the effect of constraining production at Tesla (ticker: TSLA), as well as the entire Chinese auto industry, in the second quarter. The output lost at Tesla’s Shanghai plant, which is the company’s most-productive factory, makes it nearly impossible to accurately project the electric-vehicle maker’s profits.All things considered, Tesla’ should probably earn less than what Wall Street expects. Profit forecasts for the second quarter started out at about $2.30 a share. Now they are at about $1.85, down about 20%. Forecasts for vehicles delivered, on the other hand, started out at about 350,000 units, but the company only delivered 254,695 cars during the quarter. That’s a 27% drop, seven percentage points worse than the decline in estimates.Fewer deliveries reduce revenue, but the damage is likely to be worse in terms of profits. At any manufacturing company, percentage losses or gains in sales are typically magnified on the bottom line. Tesla, for instance, had all its fixed costs throughout the second quarter, but it didn’t have all of its production.The setup for the second-quarter results announcement is similar to the situation Barron’s described before Tesla’s first-quarter results came out in April. Tesla had delivered fewer cars than Wall Street expected, but forecasts of earnings barely budged.Still, earnings came in higher than expected, at $3.22 a share, about $1 higher than Wall Street projected. Prices for Tesla’s cars turned out to have been better than forecast and inflation didn’t raise costs as much as expected.Inflation is still a problem, but vehicle prices continue to march higher. Prices for Tesla vehicles are up in the range of 25% to 30% year over year, according to the company’s website. Rising prices and costs may turn out to have been a wash for Tesla in the second quarter.But in the first quarter, Chinese production was a record 182,174 units. In the second quarter, because of Covid, production fell to 112,583 cars. That matters because the Shanghai facility is the company’s lowest-cost operation.At the same time, Tesla was ramping up production up at two new facilities, in Texas and Germany, in the second quarter. CEO Elon Musk referred to those plants as “money furnaces” in a recent interview. That could mean the process of boosting production has gone slower than expected. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for clarification of Musk’s comments.All of those complexities mean that Tesla’s second-quarter earnings likely won’t offer a clear picture of the company’s prospects for the near and medium term. It makes more sense to focus on cash flow and order rates.The consensus estimate for free cash flow started out the quarter at about $2 billion, but it is now at about $500 million. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu believes Tesla might only break even in terms of free cash flow. That downbeat view comes from a man who rates the stock at Buy, with a target for the share price of $1,580, the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.If Tesla turns out to have generated any free cash flow in the tough second quarter, investors should be pleased.Orders for Tesla cars are another critical indicator, showing how well demand is holding up despite inflation, rising interest rates, and a slowing economy. “Watch the cadence of orders,” says Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas. “The good news for Tesla is they have so many orders.” The wait for a new, base-level, Model Y stretches into the first quarter of 2023.Whether lead times are increasing or fall is a key factor for Gianarikas. He is positive about the stock, rating it at Buy. His target for the price is $801, which is 25 times his estimate of 2025 earnings per share.Investors will probably have to wait for the earnings conference call to get details about orders and demand from management. Tune in at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives hopes that Tesla will endorse its 50% unit growth guidance. Tesla’s goal is to grow volumes at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. Growth like that would put 2022 deliveries at about 1.4 million units.Ives rates Tesla at Buy with a $1,000 price target.Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock is down about 30% so far this year, worse than the 17% and 25% comparable, respective declines of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/686200815"}
精彩评论