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2022-08-09

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Nvidia: Execution Issues Surfacing Again With Its Downcast Q2 Guidance<blockquote>英伟达：随着第二季度指引下调，执行问题再次出现</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":684937751,"tweetId":"684937751","gmtCreate":1660040183075,"gmtModify":1660040428917,"author":{"id":4096363831830380,"idStr":"4096363831830380","authorId":4096363831830380,"authorIdStr":"4096363831830380","name":"Shawrac","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Hmmmm</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Hmmmm</body></html>","text":"Hmmmm","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684937751","repostId":1124255732,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124255732","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660059125,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124255732?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-09 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Execution Issues Surfacing Again With Its Downcast Q2 Guidance<blockquote>英伟达：随着第二季度指引下调，执行问题再次出现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124255732","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia shocked the market as it posted its Q2 prelim release that came in well below its prev","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Nvidia shocked the market as it posted its Q2 prelim release that came in well below its previous guidance, particularly in gaming. Management has overstated its forecasting models tremendously.</li><li>We are disappointed that Nvidia didn&#39;t learn sufficiently from the previous downturn in 2018 with its overstated guidance. As a result, management has lost some credibility with us.</li><li>Broadcom warned in September 2021 that the current cycle was unsustainable. But, we have not observed such early warning in Nvidia&#39;s commentary. Therefore, execution is very poor.</li><li>We reiterate our Hold rating, as we believe NVDA could continue underperforming the market.</li></ul>Thesis<blockquote><ul><li>英伟达 (Nvidia) 发布的第二季度初步报告震惊了市场，该报告远低于之前的指导，尤其是在游戏领域。管理层大大夸大了其预测模型。</li><li>我们感到失望的是，英伟达没有从 2018 年之前的低迷中吸取足够的教训，其夸大了指引。因此，管理层对我们失去了一些信誉。</li><li>博通在2021年9月警告称，当前的周期是不可持续的。但是，我们在英伟达的评论中没有观察到这样的预警。所以执行力很差。</li><li>我们重申持有评级，因为我们认为 NVDA 可能会继续跑输市场。</li></ul>论文</blockquote>NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stunned the market as it announced its Q2 preliminary results that came in well below its guidance and the Street&#39;s consensus. We highlighted in our previous article that NVIDIA could continue to underperform the market, even though we assessed that it was near its bottom.<blockquote>英伟达公司（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）公布的第二季度初步业绩远低于其指引和华尔街共识，震惊了市场。我们在之前的文章中强调，尽管我们评估英伟达已接近底部，但其表现可能会继续逊于市场。</blockquote>While we expected NVDA to stage a short-term rally from its June lows, we didn&#39;t envisage NVDA to continue outperforming the market. Notably, NVDA has underperformed the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the Technology ETF (XLK) over the past two months (even before yesterday&#39;s sell-off).<blockquote>虽然我们预计 NVDA 将从 6 月份的低点开始短期反弹，但我们预计 NVDA 的表现不会继续跑赢市场。值得注意的是，NVDA 在过去两个月（甚至在昨天抛售之前）的表现逊于 Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) 和 Technology ETF (XLK)。</blockquote>We maintain our conviction that the market has materially de-rated NVDA, despite its battering from its November 2021 highs. Management has failed to convince us when chips are down that Nvidia could overcome the market&#39;s cyclical nature with its so-called &#34;secular&#34; opportunities.<blockquote>尽管 NVDA 较 2021 年 11 月高点遭受重创，但我们仍然坚信市场已大幅下调其评级。当芯片下跌时，管理层未能让我们相信英伟达可以凭借其所谓的“长期”机会克服市场的周期性。</blockquote>Coupled with potentially slowing revenue growth and its steep growth premium, we urge investors to find other well-beaten down opportunities in growth and tech stocks to add exposure. Notwithstanding, we expect semis to have bottomed out and do not expect much further downside in NVDA. As a result, we urge investors not to sell in panic.<blockquote>再加上收入增长可能放缓及其陡峭的增长溢价，我们敦促投资者在成长型股票和科技股中寻找其他遭受重创的机会，以增加敞口。尽管如此，我们预计半导体已经触底，并且预计 NVDA 不会进一步下跌。因此，我们敦促投资者不要恐慌抛售。</blockquote>Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA for now.<blockquote>因此，我们目前重申对 NVDA 的持有评级。</blockquote>Nvidia Lost Credibility With Its Caution<blockquote>英伟达的谨慎失去了信誉</blockquote>We are shareholders of NVDA, which account for a reasonable weighting in our portfolio. Therefore, we consider the warning on its Q2 prelim release a massive disappointment but not unexpected.<blockquote>我们是NVDA的股东，在我们的投资组合中占有合理的权重。因此，我们认为第二季度预发布的警告令人非常失望，但并不出乎意料。</blockquote>We vividly remember Broadcom (AVGO)CEO Hock Tan cautioned about the current semi downturn in September 2021, demonstrating his prescience and credibility. We also highlighted his comments in our article last year, as he accentuated:<blockquote>我们清楚地记得 Broadcom (AVGO) 首席执行官 Hock Tan 在 2021 年 9 月对当前的半衰退发出警告，展示了他的先见之明和可信度。我们还在去年的文章中强调了他的评论，正如他强调的那样：</blockquote>And to answer your question point-blank, I do not see any specific drivers or reasons why the strength we see today is really nothing more than of an exaggerated up-cycle. We always go through a period of digestion. There&#39;s no way we can consume on all that forever. And that&#39;s what is called a cycle, particularly when we expect supply to come into play out of this - out of the current tightness, but dated back to 2020 to start coming in 2023. And the massive investment and CapEx will start deploying capacity in &#39;23 earliest. Then I see &#39;23 where we have supply. And I think digestion of demand might just start to occur. (Broadcom article)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ac20e2b8ed62af8f2aeaa78f94ad5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote>直截了当地回答你的问题，我看不到任何具体的驱动因素或原因，为什么我们今天看到的强势实际上只不过是一个夸张的上升周期。我们总是要经历一段消化期。我们不可能永远消费这些。这就是所谓的周期，特别是当我们预计供应将摆脱当前的紧张局势，但可以追溯到 2020 年，并在 2023 年开始出现时。巨额投资和资本支出最早将于 23 年开始部署产能。然后我看到23年我们有供应。我认为需求的消化可能刚刚开始发生。（博通文章）</blockquote>Nvidia gaming and data center revenue change %(Company filings)<blockquote>Nvidia 游戏和数据中心收入变化%（公司文件）</blockquote>Nvidia warned in its preliminary release for FQ2&#39;23that it expects to post revenue of $6.7B, up by just 3% YoY, down significantly from its previous outlook of $8.1B (up 24.4%).<blockquote>Nvidia 在 2023 年第二季度初步报告中警告称，预计营收为 $6.7B，同比仅增长 3%，大幅低于之前预期的 $8.1B（增长 24.4%）。</blockquote>The main culprit is gaming, as Nvidia highlighted that it expects gaming to post a decline of 33.4%, as seen above, even though data center growth remains robust. However, Nvidia&#39;s gaming growth has already trended down consistently from its peak growth in FQ1&#39;22, as gaming started to lap challenging comps, complicated by the post-pandemic reopening.<blockquote>罪魁祸首是游戏，因为英伟达强调，尽管数据中心增长仍然强劲，但它预计游戏将下降 33.4%，如上所述。然而，英伟达的游戏增长已经从 2022 年第一季度的峰值增长持续下降，因为游戏开始绕过具有挑战性的竞争，而大流行后的重新开放又使其变得复杂。</blockquote>Furthermore, the destruction in crypto mining added to the headwinds in gaming cards ASPs, creating further challenges for Nvidia as it prepares to launch its RTX 40-series Ada Lovelace graphics.<blockquote>此外，加密挖矿的破坏增加了游戏卡ASP的阻力，为Nvidia准备推出RTX 40系列Ada Lovelace显卡带来了进一步的挑战。</blockquote>But, Nvidia has consistently maintained its &#34;strong&#34; belief in its gaming segment, often accentuating its strength and consistency. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted in a June conference that he expects gaming to continue posting robust growth cadence. He articulated:<blockquote>但是，英伟达一直保持着对其游戏领域的“坚定”信念，经常强调其实力和一致性。首席执行官黄仁勋在6月份的一次会议上强调，他预计博彩业将继续保持强劲的增长势头。他说：</blockquote>China is a significant market. Russia is a meaningful market for our gaming business. However, gaming remains solid even in the face of China and Russia. Q1 sell-through grew year-over-year over last year, which was a really fantastic year. And so gaming sell-through remains solid. (BofA 2022 Global Technology Conference)But, consider what Huang emphasized two months later in Nvidia&#39;s prelim release. He said:<blockquote>中国是一个重要的市场。俄罗斯是我们博彩业务的重要市场。然而，即使面对中国和俄罗斯，博彩业仍然稳固。第一季度的销售额比去年同比增长，这是非常棒的一年。因此，游戏销售依然稳固。（美国银行 2022 年全球科技大会）但是，想想黄两个月后在英伟达的初步发布中强调的内容。他说：</blockquote>Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took action with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory. - NvidiaTherefore, we believe Huang &amp; team has lost some credibility with us. Moreover, it shows that the company overstated its forecasting models, resulting in weak execution. Given Nvidia&#39;s experience navigating the previous crypto downturn in 2018, we are highly disappointed with how management has managed its guidance heading into its Q2 prelim release.<blockquote>随着季度的进展，我们的游戏产品销量预测大幅下降。由于我们预计影响销售的宏观经济状况将持续，我们与博彩合作伙伴采取行动调整渠道价格和库存。- NVIDIA因此，我们认为 Huang &amp; team 已经失去了我们的一些信誉。此外，这表明该公司夸大了其预测模型，导致执行不力。鉴于 Nvidia 在 2018 年经历了之前的加密货币低迷时期，我们对管理层在第二季度初步发布前如何管理其指导感到非常失望。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf57b7e1fc91128408275fb9e5712e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Nvidia pro viz and automotive revenue change %(Company filings)<blockquote>Nvidia pro viz 和汽车收入变化百分比（公司文件）</blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s pro visualization segment&#39;s growth has also slowed down markedly, reflecting the weakness in its gaming segment. Therefore, the euphoria over the Omniverse opportunity has yet to gain significant traction. As a result, we urge investors to pay attention to its data center growth cadence moving forward, as it&#39;s critical to underpin NVDA&#39;s expensive valuation.<blockquote>英伟达专业可视化部门的增长也明显放缓，反映出其游戏部门的疲软。因此，对宇宙机会的兴奋还没有获得显著的牵引力。因此，我们敦促投资者关注其数据中心未来的增长速度，因为这对于支撑 NVDA 昂贵的估值至关重要。</blockquote>Automotive is the bright spot after tepid growth over the past four quarters. However, QUALCOMM (QCOM) remains confident that it&#39;s the leading player with its digital chassis, given the size of its design pipeline and growth momentum. Therefore, we urge Nvidia investors to pay close attention to Qualcomm&#39;s performance and not simply buy into Nvidia&#39;s commentary on its auto momentum.<blockquote>在过去四个季度增长不温不火之后，汽车行业是亮点。然而，考虑到其设计管道的规模和增长势头，高通 (QCOM) 仍然相信自己是数字机箱的领先企业。因此，我们敦促英伟达投资者密切关注高通的业绩，而不是简单地相信英伟达对其汽车势头的评论。</blockquote>Qualcomm highlighted in a May conference that its digital chassis competes with Mobileye (INTC) directly, suggesting two of them are leading the pack, without mentioning Nvidia. Management also accentuated in its recent Q3 earnings that it has garnered more than $19B in its auto design pipeline, and delivered auto revenue of $350M, up 38% YoY. Furthermore, the company emphasized that its open platform helps spur adoption by auto OEMs. Therefore, Nvidia investors need to assess the competition from Qualcomm carefully.<blockquote>高通在 5 月份的一次会议上强调，其数字机箱直接与 Mobileye (INTC) 竞争，这表明其中两家公司处于领先地位，但没有提及 Nvidia。管理层还在最近的第三季度财报中强调，其汽车设计渠道已筹集超过 19B 美元，汽车收入达到 3.5 亿美元，同比增长 38%。此外，该公司强调，其开放平台有助于刺激汽车原始设备制造商的采用。因此，英伟达投资者需要仔细评估来自高通的竞争。</blockquote>Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>NVDA 股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>We are confident that NVDA has likely staged its medium-term bottom in June, in line with its semi peers.<blockquote>我们相信 NVDA 可能会在 6 月份出现中期底部，与其半同行一致。</blockquote>But, growth and tech investors are spoilt for choice, given the tech bear market. Being at a bottom doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that investors should jump on the opportunity to add NVDA, as we believe it could still underperform the market.<blockquote>但是，鉴于科技熊市，成长型和科技投资者的选择被宠坏了。处于底部并不一定意味着投资者应该抓住增持 NVDA 的机会，因为我们认为它的表现仍然可能逊于市场。</blockquote>Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA and urge investors to look elsewhere.<blockquote>因此，我们重申对 NVDA 的持有评级并敦促投资者另寻他处。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Execution Issues Surfacing Again With Its Downcast Q2 Guidance<blockquote>英伟达：随着第二季度指引下调，执行问题再次出现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Execution Issues Surfacing Again With Its Downcast Q2 Guidance<blockquote>英伟达：随着第二季度指引下调，执行问题再次出现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-08-09 23:32\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Nvidia shocked the market as it posted its Q2 prelim release that came in well below its previous guidance, particularly in gaming. Management has overstated its forecasting models tremendously.</li><li>We are disappointed that Nvidia didn&#39;t learn sufficiently from the previous downturn in 2018 with its overstated guidance. As a result, management has lost some credibility with us.</li><li>Broadcom warned in September 2021 that the current cycle was unsustainable. But, we have not observed such early warning in Nvidia&#39;s commentary. Therefore, execution is very poor.</li><li>We reiterate our Hold rating, as we believe NVDA could continue underperforming the market.</li></ul>Thesis<blockquote><ul><li>英伟达 (Nvidia) 发布的第二季度初步报告震惊了市场，该报告远低于之前的指导，尤其是在游戏领域。管理层大大夸大了其预测模型。</li><li>我们感到失望的是，英伟达没有从 2018 年之前的低迷中吸取足够的教训，其夸大了指引。因此，管理层对我们失去了一些信誉。</li><li>博通在2021年9月警告称，当前的周期是不可持续的。但是，我们在英伟达的评论中没有观察到这样的预警。所以执行力很差。</li><li>我们重申持有评级，因为我们认为 NVDA 可能会继续跑输市场。</li></ul>论文</blockquote>NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stunned the market as it announced its Q2 preliminary results that came in well below its guidance and the Street&#39;s consensus. We highlighted in our previous article that NVIDIA could continue to underperform the market, even though we assessed that it was near its bottom.<blockquote>英伟达公司（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）公布的第二季度初步业绩远低于其指引和华尔街共识，震惊了市场。我们在之前的文章中强调，尽管我们评估英伟达已接近底部，但其表现可能会继续逊于市场。</blockquote>While we expected NVDA to stage a short-term rally from its June lows, we didn&#39;t envisage NVDA to continue outperforming the market. Notably, NVDA has underperformed the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the Technology ETF (XLK) over the past two months (even before yesterday&#39;s sell-off).<blockquote>虽然我们预计 NVDA 将从 6 月份的低点开始短期反弹，但我们预计 NVDA 的表现不会继续跑赢市场。值得注意的是，NVDA 在过去两个月（甚至在昨天抛售之前）的表现逊于 Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) 和 Technology ETF (XLK)。</blockquote>We maintain our conviction that the market has materially de-rated NVDA, despite its battering from its November 2021 highs. Management has failed to convince us when chips are down that Nvidia could overcome the market&#39;s cyclical nature with its so-called &#34;secular&#34; opportunities.<blockquote>尽管 NVDA 较 2021 年 11 月高点遭受重创，但我们仍然坚信市场已大幅下调其评级。当芯片下跌时，管理层未能让我们相信英伟达可以凭借其所谓的“长期”机会克服市场的周期性。</blockquote>Coupled with potentially slowing revenue growth and its steep growth premium, we urge investors to find other well-beaten down opportunities in growth and tech stocks to add exposure. Notwithstanding, we expect semis to have bottomed out and do not expect much further downside in NVDA. As a result, we urge investors not to sell in panic.<blockquote>再加上收入增长可能放缓及其陡峭的增长溢价，我们敦促投资者在成长型股票和科技股中寻找其他遭受重创的机会，以增加敞口。尽管如此，我们预计半导体已经触底，并且预计 NVDA 不会进一步下跌。因此，我们敦促投资者不要恐慌抛售。</blockquote>Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA for now.<blockquote>因此，我们目前重申对 NVDA 的持有评级。</blockquote>Nvidia Lost Credibility With Its Caution<blockquote>英伟达的谨慎失去了信誉</blockquote>We are shareholders of NVDA, which account for a reasonable weighting in our portfolio. Therefore, we consider the warning on its Q2 prelim release a massive disappointment but not unexpected.<blockquote>我们是NVDA的股东，在我们的投资组合中占有合理的权重。因此，我们认为第二季度预发布的警告令人非常失望，但并不出乎意料。</blockquote>We vividly remember Broadcom (AVGO)CEO Hock Tan cautioned about the current semi downturn in September 2021, demonstrating his prescience and credibility. We also highlighted his comments in our article last year, as he accentuated:<blockquote>我们清楚地记得 Broadcom (AVGO) 首席执行官 Hock Tan 在 2021 年 9 月对当前的半衰退发出警告，展示了他的先见之明和可信度。我们还在去年的文章中强调了他的评论，正如他强调的那样：</blockquote>And to answer your question point-blank, I do not see any specific drivers or reasons why the strength we see today is really nothing more than of an exaggerated up-cycle. We always go through a period of digestion. There&#39;s no way we can consume on all that forever. And that&#39;s what is called a cycle, particularly when we expect supply to come into play out of this - out of the current tightness, but dated back to 2020 to start coming in 2023. And the massive investment and CapEx will start deploying capacity in &#39;23 earliest. Then I see &#39;23 where we have supply. And I think digestion of demand might just start to occur. (Broadcom article)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ac20e2b8ed62af8f2aeaa78f94ad5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote>直截了当地回答你的问题，我看不到任何具体的驱动因素或原因，为什么我们今天看到的强势实际上只不过是一个夸张的上升周期。我们总是要经历一段消化期。我们不可能永远消费这些。这就是所谓的周期，特别是当我们预计供应将摆脱当前的紧张局势，但可以追溯到 2020 年，并在 2023 年开始出现时。巨额投资和资本支出最早将于 23 年开始部署产能。然后我看到23年我们有供应。我认为需求的消化可能刚刚开始发生。（博通文章）</blockquote>Nvidia gaming and data center revenue change %(Company filings)<blockquote>Nvidia 游戏和数据中心收入变化%（公司文件）</blockquote>Nvidia warned in its preliminary release for FQ2&#39;23that it expects to post revenue of $6.7B, up by just 3% YoY, down significantly from its previous outlook of $8.1B (up 24.4%).<blockquote>Nvidia 在 2023 年第二季度初步报告中警告称，预计营收为 $6.7B，同比仅增长 3%，大幅低于之前预期的 $8.1B（增长 24.4%）。</blockquote>The main culprit is gaming, as Nvidia highlighted that it expects gaming to post a decline of 33.4%, as seen above, even though data center growth remains robust. However, Nvidia&#39;s gaming growth has already trended down consistently from its peak growth in FQ1&#39;22, as gaming started to lap challenging comps, complicated by the post-pandemic reopening.<blockquote>罪魁祸首是游戏，因为英伟达强调，尽管数据中心增长仍然强劲，但它预计游戏将下降 33.4%，如上所述。然而，英伟达的游戏增长已经从 2022 年第一季度的峰值增长持续下降，因为游戏开始绕过具有挑战性的竞争，而大流行后的重新开放又使其变得复杂。</blockquote>Furthermore, the destruction in crypto mining added to the headwinds in gaming cards ASPs, creating further challenges for Nvidia as it prepares to launch its RTX 40-series Ada Lovelace graphics.<blockquote>此外，加密挖矿的破坏增加了游戏卡ASP的阻力，为Nvidia准备推出RTX 40系列Ada Lovelace显卡带来了进一步的挑战。</blockquote>But, Nvidia has consistently maintained its &#34;strong&#34; belief in its gaming segment, often accentuating its strength and consistency. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted in a June conference that he expects gaming to continue posting robust growth cadence. He articulated:<blockquote>但是，英伟达一直保持着对其游戏领域的“坚定”信念，经常强调其实力和一致性。首席执行官黄仁勋在6月份的一次会议上强调，他预计博彩业将继续保持强劲的增长势头。他说：</blockquote>China is a significant market. Russia is a meaningful market for our gaming business. However, gaming remains solid even in the face of China and Russia. Q1 sell-through grew year-over-year over last year, which was a really fantastic year. And so gaming sell-through remains solid. (BofA 2022 Global Technology Conference)But, consider what Huang emphasized two months later in Nvidia&#39;s prelim release. He said:<blockquote>中国是一个重要的市场。俄罗斯是我们博彩业务的重要市场。然而，即使面对中国和俄罗斯，博彩业仍然稳固。第一季度的销售额比去年同比增长，这是非常棒的一年。因此，游戏销售依然稳固。（美国银行 2022 年全球科技大会）但是，想想黄两个月后在英伟达的初步发布中强调的内容。他说：</blockquote>Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took action with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory. - NvidiaTherefore, we believe Huang &amp; team has lost some credibility with us. Moreover, it shows that the company overstated its forecasting models, resulting in weak execution. Given Nvidia&#39;s experience navigating the previous crypto downturn in 2018, we are highly disappointed with how management has managed its guidance heading into its Q2 prelim release.<blockquote>随着季度的进展，我们的游戏产品销量预测大幅下降。由于我们预计影响销售的宏观经济状况将持续，我们与博彩合作伙伴采取行动调整渠道价格和库存。- NVIDIA因此，我们认为 Huang &amp; team 已经失去了我们的一些信誉。此外，这表明该公司夸大了其预测模型，导致执行不力。鉴于 Nvidia 在 2018 年经历了之前的加密货币低迷时期，我们对管理层在第二季度初步发布前如何管理其指导感到非常失望。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cf57b7e1fc91128408275fb9e5712e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Nvidia pro viz and automotive revenue change %(Company filings)<blockquote>Nvidia pro viz 和汽车收入变化百分比（公司文件）</blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s pro visualization segment&#39;s growth has also slowed down markedly, reflecting the weakness in its gaming segment. Therefore, the euphoria over the Omniverse opportunity has yet to gain significant traction. As a result, we urge investors to pay attention to its data center growth cadence moving forward, as it&#39;s critical to underpin NVDA&#39;s expensive valuation.<blockquote>英伟达专业可视化部门的增长也明显放缓，反映出其游戏部门的疲软。因此，对宇宙机会的兴奋还没有获得显著的牵引力。因此，我们敦促投资者关注其数据中心未来的增长速度，因为这对于支撑 NVDA 昂贵的估值至关重要。</blockquote>Automotive is the bright spot after tepid growth over the past four quarters. However, QUALCOMM (QCOM) remains confident that it&#39;s the leading player with its digital chassis, given the size of its design pipeline and growth momentum. Therefore, we urge Nvidia investors to pay close attention to Qualcomm&#39;s performance and not simply buy into Nvidia&#39;s commentary on its auto momentum.<blockquote>在过去四个季度增长不温不火之后，汽车行业是亮点。然而，考虑到其设计管道的规模和增长势头，高通 (QCOM) 仍然相信自己是数字机箱的领先企业。因此，我们敦促英伟达投资者密切关注高通的业绩，而不是简单地相信英伟达对其汽车势头的评论。</blockquote>Qualcomm highlighted in a May conference that its digital chassis competes with Mobileye (INTC) directly, suggesting two of them are leading the pack, without mentioning Nvidia. Management also accentuated in its recent Q3 earnings that it has garnered more than $19B in its auto design pipeline, and delivered auto revenue of $350M, up 38% YoY. Furthermore, the company emphasized that its open platform helps spur adoption by auto OEMs. Therefore, Nvidia investors need to assess the competition from Qualcomm carefully.<blockquote>高通在 5 月份的一次会议上强调，其数字机箱直接与 Mobileye (INTC) 竞争，这表明其中两家公司处于领先地位，但没有提及 Nvidia。管理层还在最近的第三季度财报中强调，其汽车设计渠道已筹集超过 19B 美元，汽车收入达到 3.5 亿美元，同比增长 38%。此外，该公司强调，其开放平台有助于刺激汽车原始设备制造商的采用。因此，英伟达投资者需要仔细评估来自高通的竞争。</blockquote>Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?<blockquote>NVDA 股票是买入、卖出还是持有？</blockquote>We are confident that NVDA has likely staged its medium-term bottom in June, in line with its semi peers.<blockquote>我们相信 NVDA 可能会在 6 月份出现中期底部，与其半同行一致。</blockquote>But, growth and tech investors are spoilt for choice, given the tech bear market. Being at a bottom doesn&#39;t necessarily mean that investors should jump on the opportunity to add NVDA, as we believe it could still underperform the market.<blockquote>但是，鉴于科技熊市，成长型和科技投资者的选择被宠坏了。处于底部并不一定意味着投资者应该抓住增持 NVDA 的机会，因为我们认为它的表现仍然可能逊于市场。</blockquote>Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA and urge investors to look elsewhere.<blockquote>因此，我们重申对 NVDA 的持有评级并敦促投资者另寻他处。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531838-nvidia-execution-issues-surfacing-with-downcast-q2-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531838-nvidia-execution-issues-surfacing-with-downcast-q2-guidance?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124255732","content_text":"SummaryNvidia shocked the market as it posted its Q2 prelim release that came in well below its previous guidance, particularly in gaming. Management has overstated its forecasting models tremendously.We are disappointed that Nvidia didn't learn sufficiently from the previous downturn in 2018 with its overstated guidance. As a result, management has lost some credibility with us.Broadcom warned in September 2021 that the current cycle was unsustainable. But, we have not observed such early warning in Nvidia's commentary. Therefore, execution is very poor.We reiterate our Hold rating, as we believe NVDA could continue underperforming the market.ThesisNVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) stunned the market as it announced its Q2 preliminary results that came in well below its guidance and the Street's consensus. We highlighted in our previous article that NVIDIA could continue to underperform the market, even though we assessed that it was near its bottom.While we expected NVDA to stage a short-term rally from its June lows, we didn't envisage NVDA to continue outperforming the market. Notably, NVDA has underperformed the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) and the Technology ETF (XLK) over the past two months (even before yesterday's sell-off).We maintain our conviction that the market has materially de-rated NVDA, despite its battering from its November 2021 highs. Management has failed to convince us when chips are down that Nvidia could overcome the market's cyclical nature with its so-called \"secular\" opportunities.Coupled with potentially slowing revenue growth and its steep growth premium, we urge investors to find other well-beaten down opportunities in growth and tech stocks to add exposure. Notwithstanding, we expect semis to have bottomed out and do not expect much further downside in NVDA. As a result, we urge investors not to sell in panic.Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA for now.Nvidia Lost Credibility With Its CautionWe are shareholders of NVDA, which account for a reasonable weighting in our portfolio. Therefore, we consider the warning on its Q2 prelim release a massive disappointment but not unexpected.We vividly remember Broadcom (AVGO)CEO Hock Tan cautioned about the current semi downturn in September 2021, demonstrating his prescience and credibility. We also highlighted his comments in our article last year, as he accentuated:And to answer your question point-blank, I do not see any specific drivers or reasons why the strength we see today is really nothing more than of an exaggerated up-cycle. We always go through a period of digestion. There's no way we can consume on all that forever. And that's what is called a cycle, particularly when we expect supply to come into play out of this - out of the current tightness, but dated back to 2020 to start coming in 2023. And the massive investment and CapEx will start deploying capacity in '23 earliest. Then I see '23 where we have supply. And I think digestion of demand might just start to occur. (Broadcom article)Nvidia gaming and data center revenue change %(Company filings)Nvidia warned in its preliminary release for FQ2'23that it expects to post revenue of $6.7B, up by just 3% YoY, down significantly from its previous outlook of $8.1B (up 24.4%).The main culprit is gaming, as Nvidia highlighted that it expects gaming to post a decline of 33.4%, as seen above, even though data center growth remains robust. However, Nvidia's gaming growth has already trended down consistently from its peak growth in FQ1'22, as gaming started to lap challenging comps, complicated by the post-pandemic reopening.Furthermore, the destruction in crypto mining added to the headwinds in gaming cards ASPs, creating further challenges for Nvidia as it prepares to launch its RTX 40-series Ada Lovelace graphics.But, Nvidia has consistently maintained its \"strong\" belief in its gaming segment, often accentuating its strength and consistency. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted in a June conference that he expects gaming to continue posting robust growth cadence. He articulated:China is a significant market. Russia is a meaningful market for our gaming business. However, gaming remains solid even in the face of China and Russia. Q1 sell-through grew year-over-year over last year, which was a really fantastic year. And so gaming sell-through remains solid. (BofA 2022 Global Technology Conference)But, consider what Huang emphasized two months later in Nvidia's prelim release. He said:Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed. As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took action with our Gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory. - NvidiaTherefore, we believe Huang & team has lost some credibility with us. Moreover, it shows that the company overstated its forecasting models, resulting in weak execution. Given Nvidia's experience navigating the previous crypto downturn in 2018, we are highly disappointed with how management has managed its guidance heading into its Q2 prelim release.Nvidia pro viz and automotive revenue change %(Company filings)Nvidia's pro visualization segment's growth has also slowed down markedly, reflecting the weakness in its gaming segment. Therefore, the euphoria over the Omniverse opportunity has yet to gain significant traction. As a result, we urge investors to pay attention to its data center growth cadence moving forward, as it's critical to underpin NVDA's expensive valuation.Automotive is the bright spot after tepid growth over the past four quarters. However, QUALCOMM (QCOM) remains confident that it's the leading player with its digital chassis, given the size of its design pipeline and growth momentum. Therefore, we urge Nvidia investors to pay close attention to Qualcomm's performance and not simply buy into Nvidia's commentary on its auto momentum.Qualcomm highlighted in a May conference that its digital chassis competes with Mobileye (INTC) directly, suggesting two of them are leading the pack, without mentioning Nvidia. Management also accentuated in its recent Q3 earnings that it has garnered more than $19B in its auto design pipeline, and delivered auto revenue of $350M, up 38% YoY. Furthermore, the company emphasized that its open platform helps spur adoption by auto OEMs. Therefore, Nvidia investors need to assess the competition from Qualcomm carefully.Is NVDA Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?We are confident that NVDA has likely staged its medium-term bottom in June, in line with its semi peers.But, growth and tech investors are spoilt for choice, given the tech bear market. Being at a bottom doesn't necessarily mean that investors should jump on the opportunity to add NVDA, as we believe it could still underperform the market.Therefore, we reiterate our Hold rating on NVDA and urge investors to look elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/684937751"}