挂挂13
2022-11-06
这美国经济到底是强劲还是衰退？怎么话都被一个人说完了？
加息后首度发声！美联储四高官：更多加息，峰值可能超过5%
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我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity
2022-11-07
我就不要5000万美元Taoist Deity
两年或者四年都处于不景气状态，之后的几十年会处于少见的高增长
Alex_168
2022-11-06
Alex_168
强
什么也没有了～
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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-06 11:09 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674217><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>加息步伐放缓，但利率峰值更高。在美联储11月升息后，美联储官员密集发声。官员们警告，必须继续加息才能遏制通胀，明年利率峰值有可能达到5%以上。里士满联储主席Thomas Barkin周五在接受采访时表示，为了将通胀降至目标水平，美联储需要采取一切必要措施，这可能将利率峰值推高至5%以上：我完全可以想象利率最终会超过5％，但对我来说，这不是一个既定的计划，而是我们为抗通胀所做努力的结果。明尼阿波利斯...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674217\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674217","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179800507","content_text":"加息步伐放缓，但利率峰值更高。在美联储11月升息后，美联储官员密集发声。官员们警告，必须继续加息才能遏制通胀，明年利率峰值有可能达到5%以上。里士满联储主席Thomas Barkin周五在接受采访时表示，为了将通胀降至目标水平，美联储需要采取一切必要措施，这可能将利率峰值推高至5%以上：我完全可以想象利率最终会超过5％，但对我来说，这不是一个既定的计划，而是我们为抗通胀所做努力的结果。明尼阿波利斯联储行长Neel Kashkari则表示，最新的就业报告显示招聘情况“非常强劲”，这可能导致利率峰值“更高”：我们还有更多工作要做，希望能够给经济降温，使需求和供应达到平衡。今年3、4月时我预测利率会在今年9月见顶，最终峰值在4.9%左右。鉴于目前所掌握的信息，我预计利率会升到更高，至于会高多少，我也没有答案。芝加哥联储行长Charles Evans也持类似观点，其预计美联储利率峰值水平“将略高于” 9月的点阵图预测。波士顿联储主席Susan Collins则警告，现在判断利率应该达到多高还为时尚早，不能排除再进行一次大幅加息的可能性：由于利率目前处于可能导致经济增长减速的限制性水平，所以货币政策正在进入一个新的阶段，可能只需要进行较小幅度的利率调整。但不能排除再进行一次大幅加息的可能性。美联储本周连续第四次加息75个基点，将联邦基准利率上调至3.75％—4％。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的记者会上表示，美联储将“有目的性地”调整利率至有效的限制性，最快将在12月放慢加息步伐，但是终端利率可能会高于9月时美联储的预期（4.6%）。由于鲍威尔没有给出具体预测数据，市场目前对美联储利率峰值存在争议。在FOMC会议前，华尔街对于美联储利率峰值的预测水平为5%左右。投资者押注美联储将在12月加息50个基点，利率则将在2023年年中达到5.1%左右的峰值。约翰霍普金斯大学经济学教授Jonathan Wright总结认为，考虑到美国实际利率依然接近于零，甚至仍为负值，美联储实现控制通胀所需的限制性立场还有很长的路要走。在FOMC会议后，华尔街也对美联储升息路径进行了调整，以反映“更慢但更高”的升息预期。野村现在预计美联储12月加息50个基点（此前为75个基点），明年2月加息50个基点，3月加息50个基点（此前为25个基点），5月加息25个基点（此前没有做出预期）。利率峰值将比之前的预测高出25个基点，上调至了5.50-5.75%。在野村看来，美联储的通胀斗争远未结束，可能还会有更多的大幅加息。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的言论十分明确地指向鹰派立场，重中之重是美联储仍然打算继续加息，只是步伐有所放缓。因此，野村认为此轮加息周期将持续更长时间，利率峰值将处于更高水平。美国前财政部长、哈佛大学名誉校长Lawrence 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