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2022-09-10

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Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It<blockquote>特斯拉刚刚做了一次压力测试，通过了</blockquote>

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And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.<blockquote>特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）在过去两个季度基本上接受了压力测试。令投资者欣慰的是，它通过了考验。尽管我们将更仔细地观察（我们将在下一节中讨论），但它的记分卡中仍然存在一些挥之不去的问题。但总体而言，尽管上半年面临诸多挑战，包括上海工厂本季度大部分时间产量有限和关闭、供应链持续中断以及劳动力和原材料成本上涨，但其 6 月份季度业绩仍超出预期。尽管面临所有这些挑战，6 月份季度的收入仍同比增长 42%，总交付量达到近 25.5 万辆（同比增长 27%）。展望未来，管理层的目标是在下半年实现创纪录的产量。</blockquote>At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.<blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉也在通胀飙升的情况下展示了其定价实力。在本文的后面，您将看到平均单位销售价格与上一季度相比上涨了近10%，与2021年第四季度相比上涨了16%以上。然而，客户仍然蜂拥而至，尽快购买其汽车。</blockquote>Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.<blockquote>这样的定价与其综合生产系统的弹性形成了一个强大的组合。而且，其产量显然已经过了临界规模的支点。随着奥斯汀和柏林的超级工厂继续扩张，我预计它将以更快的速度收回固定成本，并从生产规模中受益，正如 next 立即详细阐述的那样。</blockquote>TSLA’s stress test<blockquote>TSLA压力测试</blockquote>The following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.<blockquote>下图说明了特斯拉在过去两个季度刚刚进行的压力测试的性质。该图显示了自2015年以来每辆车的平均CFO（运营现金）以及每辆车的平均单价。设置背景，大家可以非常清楚地看到，特斯拉在2018年前后已经过了临界规模的支点。自2015年以来，它能够提高每辆车的利润，而单价（即每辆车的价格标签）实际上一直在下降。2015 年，特斯拉汽车的平均价格约为 8.09 万美元（当时我的一位朋友开玩笑说，这就像驾驶一件续航里程有限的珠宝）。正如你所看到的，2021年平均价格下降到5.75万美元，而同期净利润飙升。2018年净利润转正，这是超过盈亏平衡点的明确指标。</blockquote>Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.<blockquote>然后是2022年的压力测试。由于上述所有挑战，该公司不得不将单价从2021年的平均每辆车5.75万美元提高到2022年Q2的6.65万美元，价格上涨了15.6%。毫无疑问，该企业有定价权将价格提高到如此大幅度，这是一个好消息。然而，坏消息是，价格上涨本身不足以克服通货膨胀成本、原材料等。因此，每辆车的净利润实际上有所下降。每辆车的平均首席财务官在2021年达到1.22万美元的峰值，在2022年第二季度下降至9.23万美元，降幅超过25%。</blockquote>So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.<blockquote>因此，总的来说，它交出了一份很好的记分卡，但有一些挥之不去的问题，我们接下来将更详细地研究这些问题。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e7881b443d2c420626b971f109ca311\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author based on Seeking Alpha data<blockquote>作者基于Seeking Alpha数据</blockquote>TSLA’s fixed cost and variable cost<blockquote>TSLA 的固定成本和可变成本</blockquote>For a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,<blockquote>对于像 TSLA 这样的生产企业，基本经济学是众所周知的，如下图所示格雷厄姆和多德投资的现代方法托马斯·P·奥。正如书中所解释的，</blockquote>Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5c669923352cb292c185f41f4ea4fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote>利润是数量、价格和成本的函数，如下图所示。成本有两种，固定成本和可变成本（图中显示为F和M*V，其中M是生产额外单位的边际成本，V是生产量）。固定成本包括厂房和设备（尤其是其折旧）以及大多数资本成本（如利息支出）。固定成本是预先产生的，不会随产出水平而变化。生产企业必须首先通过盈亏平衡点才能盈利。在突破临界销售量后，固定成本会分摊到越来越多的单位上，利润率也会提高。</blockquote>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au<blockquote>Thomas P. Au 的格雷厄姆和多德投资的现代方法</blockquote>The next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.<blockquote>下图显示了这些动态在 TSLA 是如何发挥作用的。图表显示了我对 TSLA 固定成本和可变成本的估计。该图是以双对数比例绘制的。蓝线显示其总收入，橙线显示我根据其实际数据对上述模型的最佳拟合。</blockquote>You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).<blockquote>你可以再次看到，盈亏平衡点发生在接近100K辆车的地方（蓝线和橙线相交的地方）。事实上，其汽车总交付量在2017年首次超过10万辆，证实了fit的有效性。通过计算橙线的斜率，我们还可以确定 TSLA 每辆车的可变成本约为 42,000 美元。通过推断左边的橙色线，您可以看到固定成本约为20亿美元。此外，通过将橙线一直外推到100万辆汽车交付量（今年的目标是达到这一目标），我们可以预测固定成本、可变成本以及利润（即蓝线和橙线之间的差异）。</blockquote>Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.<blockquote>在双对数尺度下，很难看出差异。因此，在下一节中，我将把这些数字制成表格，并预测到未来几年。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5520e0e03cd80a27fd4c847f92439068\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author<blockquote>作者</blockquote>TSLA Stock’s profit and return projections<blockquote>TSLA 股票的利润和回报预测</blockquote>This next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.<blockquote>下一张表格重复了我从上图所示的拟合中获得的相同信息（特别是平均固定成本、可变成本和每辆车的净利润）。只不过这次是以表格形式呈现的。</blockquote>Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.<blockquote>根据这些参数，我们还可以对 TSLA 未来的收入和利润做出预测。总之，关键参数是：a) 每辆车的可变成本为 42,000 美元；B) 2B 美元的固定成本。最后，我还做出了假设：a）运营费用占总销售额的13%，这与其当前水平一致；B) 它可以维持目前 66,000 美元的平均车价；C) 其年产量将以 30% 的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote>As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.<blockquote>可以看出，基于这些预测。其总收入预计将达到约 1880 亿美元。该预测非常接近 2026 年 1910 亿美元的共识估计，如下所示。假设共识估计值是通过其他独立方法达成的，这种一致性是上述模型和拟合有效性的另一个好迹象。对其可变成本和固定成本的基本了解可以为我们提供对其利润驱动因素的有力见解并了解未来回报。</blockquote>For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.<blockquote>例如，现在，毫无疑问，这项业务的价值很高。然而，有了上述固定成本和可变成本，表格显示它可以在更大程度上受益于生产规模。预计 2026 年总收入将达到 $188B，到 2026 年 EBITDA 收益将达到 $45B。按照目前的价格，2026年的市销率约为5.1倍，EV/销售比率约为5.2倍，EV/EBITDA比率约为21倍。届时，市盈率和电动汽车/市盈率与整体市场不会有太大差异。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d10ac6399c754be5f519058eac954f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author: TSLA’s profit and return projections<blockquote>作者：特斯拉的利润和回报预测</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc4fe07e1d74f5be8ebf212d915aeb0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Final thoughts and risks<blockquote>最后的想法和风险</blockquote>To recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.<blockquote>总而言之，我认为过去两个季度对特斯拉来说是一次压力测试，我进一步认为它通过了测试。经过这次测试，其盈利能力、生产弹性和定价权应该不再有任何疑问。展望未来，一些催化剂可能会在不久的将来进一步提高其盈利能力。随着上海超级工厂恢复运营以及奥斯汀和柏林工厂的产能持续增长，我预计其将以更快的速度收回固定成本，并在更大程度上受益于生产规模。其最近在全自动驾驶软件方面的进步为股东增加了进一步的选择和上升潜力。</blockquote>However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.<blockquote>然而，它的记分卡上有一些挥之不去的问题。价格上涨本身不足以克服不断上涨的成本。尽管每辆车的平均售价上涨了近 16%，但每辆车的利润实际上下降了 25% 以上。展望未来，我认为这种成本控制（原材料、劳动力和总体通胀）挑战将持续存在。最后，一般来说很难预测快速增长的事物，这是特斯拉等非线性股票的固有风险。特斯拉管理层多次提到其目标和信心，即以每年 50% 的速度增长交付量，而其他消息来源的估计则随处可见。例如，晨星分析认为，到 2030 年，特斯拉的交付量仅为 570 万辆左右，远低于管理层的目标。而 Cathie Wood 相信（或相信）到 2025 年，特斯拉每年可以销售 2000 万辆汽车。你可以从下面共识估计的低端和高端的巨大差异中看到这种差异（以及由此产生的风险）。到2024年，这一差异将超过2倍，到2025年将超过3倍，到2026年将接近4倍。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880cc09103624085d81075fe424881e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It<blockquote>特斯拉刚刚做了一次压力测试，通过了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Just Took A Stress Test And Passed It<blockquote>特斯拉刚刚做了一次压力测试，通过了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-09-09 23:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>The past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.</li><li>It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.</li><li>However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.</li><li>It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.</li><li>Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.</li></ul>Thesis and Background<blockquote><ul><li>过去两个季度对特斯拉来说是一次压力测试。</li><li>它不得不应对许多挑战，包括产量有限、上海工厂关闭、成本飙升等。</li><li>然而，尽管面临种种挑战，其 6 月份季度业绩仍超出预期，这主要得益于总交付量的健康增长。</li><li>它还展示了其定价实力，并表明其产量已明显通过临界规模的支点。</li><li>展望未来，我预计它将以更快的速度收回固定成本，并在更大程度上受益于生产规模。</li></ul>论文与背景</blockquote>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.<blockquote>特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）在过去两个季度基本上接受了压力测试。令投资者欣慰的是，它通过了考验。尽管我们将更仔细地观察（我们将在下一节中讨论），但它的记分卡中仍然存在一些挥之不去的问题。但总体而言，尽管上半年面临诸多挑战，包括上海工厂本季度大部分时间产量有限和关闭、供应链持续中断以及劳动力和原材料成本上涨，但其 6 月份季度业绩仍超出预期。尽管面临所有这些挑战，6 月份季度的收入仍同比增长 42%，总交付量达到近 25.5 万辆（同比增长 27%）。展望未来，管理层的目标是在下半年实现创纪录的产量。</blockquote>At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.<blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉也在通胀飙升的情况下展示了其定价实力。在本文的后面，您将看到平均单位销售价格与上一季度相比上涨了近10%，与2021年第四季度相比上涨了16%以上。然而，客户仍然蜂拥而至，尽快购买其汽车。</blockquote>Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.<blockquote>这样的定价与其综合生产系统的弹性形成了一个强大的组合。而且，其产量显然已经过了临界规模的支点。随着奥斯汀和柏林的超级工厂继续扩张，我预计它将以更快的速度收回固定成本，并从生产规模中受益，正如 next 立即详细阐述的那样。</blockquote>TSLA’s stress test<blockquote>TSLA压力测试</blockquote>The following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.<blockquote>下图说明了特斯拉在过去两个季度刚刚进行的压力测试的性质。该图显示了自2015年以来每辆车的平均CFO（运营现金）以及每辆车的平均单价。设置背景，大家可以非常清楚地看到，特斯拉在2018年前后已经过了临界规模的支点。自2015年以来，它能够提高每辆车的利润，而单价（即每辆车的价格标签）实际上一直在下降。2015 年，特斯拉汽车的平均价格约为 8.09 万美元（当时我的一位朋友开玩笑说，这就像驾驶一件续航里程有限的珠宝）。正如你所看到的，2021年平均价格下降到5.75万美元，而同期净利润飙升。2018年净利润转正，这是超过盈亏平衡点的明确指标。</blockquote>Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.<blockquote>然后是2022年的压力测试。由于上述所有挑战，该公司不得不将单价从2021年的平均每辆车5.75万美元提高到2022年Q2的6.65万美元，价格上涨了15.6%。毫无疑问，该企业有定价权将价格提高到如此大幅度，这是一个好消息。然而，坏消息是，价格上涨本身不足以克服通货膨胀成本、原材料等。因此，每辆车的净利润实际上有所下降。每辆车的平均首席财务官在2021年达到1.22万美元的峰值，在2022年第二季度下降至9.23万美元，降幅超过25%。</blockquote>So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.<blockquote>因此，总的来说，它交出了一份很好的记分卡，但有一些挥之不去的问题，我们接下来将更详细地研究这些问题。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e7881b443d2c420626b971f109ca311\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author based on Seeking Alpha data<blockquote>作者基于Seeking Alpha数据</blockquote>TSLA’s fixed cost and variable cost<blockquote>TSLA 的固定成本和可变成本</blockquote>For a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,<blockquote>对于像 TSLA 这样的生产企业，基本经济学是众所周知的，如下图所示格雷厄姆和多德投资的现代方法托马斯·P·奥。正如书中所解释的，</blockquote>Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5c669923352cb292c185f41f4ea4fd9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote>利润是数量、价格和成本的函数，如下图所示。成本有两种，固定成本和可变成本（图中显示为F和M*V，其中M是生产额外单位的边际成本，V是生产量）。固定成本包括厂房和设备（尤其是其折旧）以及大多数资本成本（如利息支出）。固定成本是预先产生的，不会随产出水平而变化。生产企业必须首先通过盈亏平衡点才能盈利。在突破临界销售量后，固定成本会分摊到越来越多的单位上，利润率也会提高。</blockquote>A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au<blockquote>Thomas P. Au 的格雷厄姆和多德投资的现代方法</blockquote>The next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.<blockquote>下图显示了这些动态在 TSLA 是如何发挥作用的。图表显示了我对 TSLA 固定成本和可变成本的估计。该图是以双对数比例绘制的。蓝线显示其总收入，橙线显示我根据其实际数据对上述模型的最佳拟合。</blockquote>You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).<blockquote>你可以再次看到，盈亏平衡点发生在接近100K辆车的地方（蓝线和橙线相交的地方）。事实上，其汽车总交付量在2017年首次超过10万辆，证实了fit的有效性。通过计算橙线的斜率，我们还可以确定 TSLA 每辆车的可变成本约为 42,000 美元。通过推断左边的橙色线，您可以看到固定成本约为20亿美元。此外，通过将橙线一直外推到100万辆汽车交付量（今年的目标是达到这一目标），我们可以预测固定成本、可变成本以及利润（即蓝线和橙线之间的差异）。</blockquote>Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.<blockquote>在双对数尺度下，很难看出差异。因此，在下一节中，我将把这些数字制成表格，并预测到未来几年。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5520e0e03cd80a27fd4c847f92439068\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author<blockquote>作者</blockquote>TSLA Stock’s profit and return projections<blockquote>TSLA 股票的利润和回报预测</blockquote>This next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.<blockquote>下一张表格重复了我从上图所示的拟合中获得的相同信息（特别是平均固定成本、可变成本和每辆车的净利润）。只不过这次是以表格形式呈现的。</blockquote>Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.<blockquote>根据这些参数，我们还可以对 TSLA 未来的收入和利润做出预测。总之，关键参数是：a) 每辆车的可变成本为 42,000 美元；B) 2B 美元的固定成本。最后，我还做出了假设：a）运营费用占总销售额的13%，这与其当前水平一致；B) 它可以维持目前 66,000 美元的平均车价；C) 其年产量将以 30% 的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote>As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.<blockquote>可以看出，基于这些预测。其总收入预计将达到约 1880 亿美元。该预测非常接近 2026 年 1910 亿美元的共识估计，如下所示。假设共识估计值是通过其他独立方法达成的，这种一致性是上述模型和拟合有效性的另一个好迹象。对其可变成本和固定成本的基本了解可以为我们提供对其利润驱动因素的有力见解并了解未来回报。</blockquote>For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.<blockquote>例如，现在，毫无疑问，这项业务的价值很高。然而，有了上述固定成本和可变成本，表格显示它可以在更大程度上受益于生产规模。预计 2026 年总收入将达到 $188B，到 2026 年 EBITDA 收益将达到 $45B。按照目前的价格，2026年的市销率约为5.1倍，EV/销售比率约为5.2倍，EV/EBITDA比率约为21倍。届时，市盈率和电动汽车/市盈率与整体市场不会有太大差异。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d10ac6399c754be5f519058eac954f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Author: TSLA’s profit and return projections<blockquote>作者：特斯拉的利润和回报预测</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc4fe07e1d74f5be8ebf212d915aeb0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>Final thoughts and risks<blockquote>最后的想法和风险</blockquote>To recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.<blockquote>总而言之，我认为过去两个季度对特斯拉来说是一次压力测试，我进一步认为它通过了测试。经过这次测试，其盈利能力、生产弹性和定价权应该不再有任何疑问。展望未来，一些催化剂可能会在不久的将来进一步提高其盈利能力。随着上海超级工厂恢复运营以及奥斯汀和柏林工厂的产能持续增长，我预计其将以更快的速度收回固定成本，并在更大程度上受益于生产规模。其最近在全自动驾驶软件方面的进步为股东增加了进一步的选择和上升潜力。</blockquote>However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.<blockquote>然而，它的记分卡上有一些挥之不去的问题。价格上涨本身不足以克服不断上涨的成本。尽管每辆车的平均售价上涨了近 16%，但每辆车的利润实际上下降了 25% 以上。展望未来，我认为这种成本控制（原材料、劳动力和总体通胀）挑战将持续存在。最后，一般来说很难预测快速增长的事物，这是特斯拉等非线性股票的固有风险。特斯拉管理层多次提到其目标和信心，即以每年 50% 的速度增长交付量，而其他消息来源的估计则随处可见。例如，晨星分析认为，到 2030 年，特斯拉的交付量仅为 570 万辆左右，远低于管理层的目标。而 Cathie Wood 相信（或相信）到 2025 年，特斯拉每年可以销售 2000 万辆汽车。你可以从下面共识估计的低端和高端的巨大差异中看到这种差异（以及由此产生的风险）。到2024年，这一差异将超过2倍，到2025年将超过3倍，到2026年将接近4倍。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3880cc09103624085d81075fe424881e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539874-tesla-stock-stress-test-passed?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121193410","content_text":"SummaryThe past two quarters represented a stress test for Tesla.It had to deal with a number of challenges, including limited production, shutdowns at its Shanghai factory, soaring costs, et al.However, its June-quarter results topped expectations largely driven by a healthy ramp-up of total deliveries despite all the challenges.It also demonstrated its pricing muscle and showed that its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale.Going forward, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree.Thesis and BackgroundTesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) essentially took a stress test in the past two quarters. And to investors’ relief, it passed the test. Although we look more closely (which we will in the next section), there are still some lingering issues in its scorecard. But overall, its June-quarter results topped expectations despite the multitude of challenges it faced in the first half of the year, including limited production and shutdowns at its factory in Shanghai for most of the quarter, ongoing supply-chain disruptions, and rising labor and raw materials cost. Despite all these challenges, revenues for the June quarter went up 42% YoY and the total deliveries reached almost 255K (a 27% increase YoY). Looking forward, management is targeting record production in the second half of the year.At the same time, TSLA has also demonstrated its pricing muscle amid soaring inflation. Later in the article, you will see that the average unit sale price went up by almost 10% compared to the previous quarter and by more than 16% compared to the 4thquarter of 2021. Yet, customers are still flocking to buy its cars as quickly as it can make them.Such pricing and the resilience of its integrated production system form a powerful combination. Moreover, its production has clearly passed the pivot point of the critical scale. As the Gigafactories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree as elaborated on next immediately.TSLA’s stress testThe following chart illustrates the nature of the stress test that Tesla just took in the past two quarters. This chart shows the average CFO (cash from operations) per vehicle and also the average unit price per vehicle since 2015. To set the background, you can see very clearly that Tesla has passed the pivot point of critical scale around 2018. Since 2015, it was able to make an improving profit per vehicle while the unit price (i.e., the price tag on each vehicle) has actually been DECLINING. The average price tag for a TSLA vehicle was around $80.9K back in 2015 (when one of my friends joked that it was like driving a piece of jewelry with limited range). The average price declined to $57.5K in 2021, while the net profits soared during the same period, as you can see. And the net profit turned positive in 2018, a clear indicator of passing the breakeven point.Then came the stress test in 2022. Due to all of the above-mentioned challenges, the business had to increase the unit price from an average of $57.5K per vehicle in 2021 to $66.5K in Q2 of 2022, a price increase of 15.6%. It is undoubtedly good news that the business has the pricing power to increase the price at such a substantial magnitude. However, the bad news is that the price increase itself is not sufficient to overcome the inflation cost, raw materials, et al. As a result, the net profit per vehicle actually decreased as seen. The average CFO per vehicle reached a peak of $12.2K in 2021 and declined to $9.23K in Q2 2022, a decline of more than 25%.So overall, it turned in a good scorecard with some lingering issues, and we will examine these issues more next.Author based on Seeking Alpha dataTSLA’s fixed cost and variable costFor a production business like TSLA, the basic economics are well-understood and shown in the following chart taken from A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. Au. As also explained in the book,Profit is a function of volume, price, and cost, as shown in the next figure. Costs come in two varieties, fixed costs and the variable cost (shown as F and M * V in the figure, where M is the marginal cost of producing an additional unit and V is the production volume). Fix costs include things like plant and equipment (especially the depreciation thereon) and also most capital costs (such as interest expenses). Fixed costs were incurred upfront and do not vary with the level of output. A production business has to first pass the breakeven point to make a profit. After it breaks the critical volume of sales, the fixed costs are spread out on more and more units and profit margins will improve.A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing by Thomas P. AuThe next chart shows how these dynamics are playing out at TSLA. The chart shows my estimates of TSLA’s fixed cost and variable costs. The plot is made in double-logarithmic scales. The blue line shows its total revenue and the orange line shows my best fit to the model above based on its actual data.You can see again that the break-even point occurred somewhere close to 100K vehicles (where the blue line and orange intersect). And in reality, its total vehicle deliveries exceeded 100K for the first time in 2017, corroborating the validity of the fit. By calculating the slope of the orange line, we can also determine the variable cost to be about $42,000 per vehicle for TSLA. By extrapolating the orange line to the left, you could see that the fixed cost is about $2 billion. Moreover, by extrapolating the orange line all the way to 1M vehicle delivery (which it aims to reach this year), we can project the fixed cost, the variable cost, and also the profit (i.e., the difference between the blue and orange lines).Under a double-log scale, the difference is hard to see. So, in the next section, I will tabulate these numbers and project them into the next few years also.AuthorTSLA Stock’s profit and return projectionsThis next table repeats the same information that I obtained from the fitting (especially, the average fixed cost, variable cost, and net profit per vehicle) shown in the chart above. Except it is presented in a tabular form this time.Based on these parameters, we can also make projections about the TSLA’s revenues and profits going forward. To summarize, the key parameters are: A) the variable cost per vehicle is $42,000; and B) a fixed cost of $2B. Finally, I also made the assumption that: A) the operating expenses are 13% of total sales, which is consistent with its current levels; B) it can maintain the current average vehicle price tag of $66,000; and C) its annual production would grow at 30% CAGR.As can be seen, based on these projections. Its total revenues are projected to reach about $188B. The projection is quite close to the consensus estimate of $191B in 2026 as shown below. Assuming the consensus estimates are reached by other independent methods, such agreement serves as another good sign of the validity of the above model and fitting. And a fundamental understanding of its variable cost and fixed cost can provide us with powerful insights into its profit drivers and understand future returns.For example, right now, there is no doubt that the business is expensively valued. However, with the above fixed cost and variable cost, the table shows that it can benefit from the scale of production to a further degree going forward. Total revenues are projected to reach $188B in 2026 and EBITDA earnings are projected to reach $45B by 2026. Under the current price, price to sales ratio would be about 5.1x in 2026, the EV/sales ratio about 5.2x, and the EV/EBITDA ratio about 21x. The P/S and EV/S ratios would not be that different from the overall market by then.Author: TSLA’s profit and return projectionsSeeking AlphaFinal thoughts and risksTo recap, I see the past two quarters as a stress test on Tesla and I further see it passed the test. There should no longer be any doubt about its profitability, production resilience, and pricing power after this test. Going forward, a few catalysts could further boost its profitability in the near future. As the Shanghai Gigafactory resumes operation and factories in Austin and Berlin continue to ramp up, I expect it to recoup its fixed cost at an even faster pace and benefit from the scale of production to a further degree. Its recent advancements in full self-driving software add further optionality and upward potential for shareholders.However, there are a few lingering issues on its scorecard. The price increase itself was not sufficient to overcome the rising costs. Profit per vehicle actually decreased by more than 25% despite an almost 16% increase in the average sales price tag per vehicle. Going forward, I see such cost control (raw materials, labor, and general inflation) challenges to persist. And finally, it is just in general difficult to predict things that grow at fast rates, which is an inherent risk with nonlinear stocks like TSLA. TSLA management repeatedly mentioned its goal and confidence of growing deliveries at 50% annual rates, while other sources’ estimates are all over the place. For example, Morning Star analysis assumes Tesla only delivers around 5.7 million vehicles by 2030, well below management’s target. While Cathie Wood believes (or believed) that Tesla can sell 20m vehicles a year by 2025. You can see such variance (and hence risks) by the huge difference in the low and high ends of the consensus estimates below. The variance is more than 2x by 2024, more than 3x by 2025, and almost 4x by 2026.Seeking Alpha","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2551,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/663965238"}