学思践悟
2023-06-12
只能
@阿强观港美股:
为什么配置长期美债ETF+投机级别债券呢?
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP,发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":655199024,"tweetId":"655199024","gmtCreate":1686557773068,"gmtModify":1686557774832,"author":{"id":4117937154859840,"authorId":4117937154859840,"authorIdStr":"4117937154859840","name":"学思践悟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>只能</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>只能</body></html>","text":"只能","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/655199024","repostId":186406836314240,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":186406836314240,"tweetId":"186406836314240","gmtCreate":1686548808055,"gmtModify":1686549215957,"author":{"id":3500773707643786,"authorId":3500773707643786,"authorIdStr":"3500773707643786","name":"阿强观港美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dad38649fc47712e5a4b86bce9af5da","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者:发表过3篇及以上精华帖,且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.31","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"f01ebc17fb874256bbfebe9c67721964","categoryId":"d316d8bd4a714fab9ea15fd7157c45e7","name":"2023年市场展望","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":f01ebc17fb874256bbfebe9c67721964}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"聚焦2023年市场,2023年有哪些投资机会?","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547067334aa829092cf310c3702d5bed"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd85be0d47424e1c8705883fce6943e","width":"854","height":"584"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd856579b0131238463cd33442918281","width":"464","height":"263"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b43699cf82db2214e5370b473214135","width":"2208","height":"1242"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1dfa12d4ef254b4017105f78ffe08b3","width":"586","height":"246"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/088db2d047f9a4e04a8553b006ca5bff","width":"2208","height":"1242"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3109ea054576a6e00ac4bba04320caa5","width":"597","height":"399"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6079ce72cac06494b5c78f67f2b016f7","width":"722","height":"332"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db7e9f34f2aba6ea04dbbee726d9769","width":"616","height":"291"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd85be0d47424e1c8705883fce6943e","width":"854","height":"584"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd856579b0131238463cd33442918281","width":"464","height":"263"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b43699cf82db2214e5370b473214135","width":"2208","height":"1242"}],"title":"为什么配置长期美债ETF+投机级别债券呢?","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>一,为什么配置长期美债ETF+投机级美元债券呢?</p>\n<p>1,临近加息周期末期</p>\n<p>2,按照过往,加息末期到降息期间,美债ETF+投资级别债,价格基本站稳。如果接下来暂停加息+降息,则可以赚取债券利息+债券价格上涨的收益。挑选长期美债,是因为弹性大。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd85be0d47424e1c8705883fce6943e\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"584\"><span class=\"\"></span></p>\n<p>二,根据芝加哥期货CME预测:美联储的货币政策,是影响债券价格走势的主要因素之一,2022.03开启加息周期,已经加息10次,基准利率攀升到5%~5.25%,按照CME预测,接下来最多基本也就加息50个基点,封顶值为5.5~5.75%,则加息周期进入末期。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6079ce72cac06494b5c78f67f2b016f7\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"332\"><span></span></p>\n<p>三,按照过往,债券指数表现<br></p>\n<p>①按照过往,末次加息~首次降息:</p>\n<p>摩根全球国债指数,平均收益率达6.05%</p>\n<p>摩根投资级别债券指数,平均收益率达9.28%</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3109ea054576a6e00ac4bba04320caa5\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"399\"><span></span></p>\n<p>①按照过往,末次加息后6个月与1年<br></p>\n<p>摩根全球国债指数,摩根投资级别债券指数,表现都相对不错。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db7e9f34f2aba6ea04dbbee726d9769\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"291\"><span></span></p>\n<p>四,标的介绍:<br></p>\n<p>①20年期美债ETF,代码:TLT</p>\n<p>ETF介绍:投资剩余期限超过 20 年的长期美国国债</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b43699cf82db2214e5370b473214135\" tg-width=\"2208\" tg-height=\"1242\"><span class=\"\"></span></p>\n<p>②投资级公司债,代码:LQDETF介绍:主要是投资级别的公司债,目前规模达350亿美金,投资分散,前十大持仓占比约3%,除非极端事件,例如,2008年金融危机、2020年初疫情、2022年大幅加息,高位回调达20% ,其他时间,基本是相对稳健,股息高达近4%</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/088db2d047f9a4e04a8553b006ca5bff\" tg-width=\"2208\" tg-height=\"1242\"><span></span></p>\n<p>五:TLT+LQD过往表现<br></p>\n<p>①按照过往表现,末次加息~首次降息,TLT涨幅还是相对不错;LQD表现相对差了点。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd856579b0131238463cd33442918281\" tg-width=\"464\" tg-height=\"263\"><span></span></p>\n<p>②按照过往表现,降息时间段,TLT涨幅涨幅非常好,因为降息幅度比较大;而LQD表现相对比较差,LQD是投资级别公司债,虽然在降息周期是利好,但如果遇到极端事件,因为公司也受经济影响,则股价回调幅度也是比较大。</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>则20年期美债ETF:TLT会更加稳健</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1dfa12d4ef254b4017105f78ffe08b3\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"246\"><span></span></p>\n<p>提示:过往表现并不代表未来表现,只作为投资参考<br></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>一,为什么配置长期美债ETF+投机级美元债券呢?</p>\n<p>1,临近加息周期末期</p>\n<p>2,按照过往,加息末期到降息期间,美债ETF+投资级别债,价格基本站稳。如果接下来暂停加息+降息,则可以赚取债券利息+债券价格上涨的收益。挑选长期美债,是因为弹性大。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd85be0d47424e1c8705883fce6943e\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"584\"><span class=\"\"></span></p>\n<p>二,根据芝加哥期货CME预测:美联储的货币政策,是影响债券价格走势的主要因素之一,2022.03开启加息周期,已经加息10次,基准利率攀升到5%~5.25%,按照CME预测,接下来最多基本也就加息50个基点,封顶值为5.5~5.75%,则加息周期进入末期。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6079ce72cac06494b5c78f67f2b016f7\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"332\"><span></span></p>\n<p>三,按照过往,债券指数表现<br></p>\n<p>①按照过往,末次加息~首次降息:</p>\n<p>摩根全球国债指数,平均收益率达6.05%</p>\n<p>摩根投资级别债券指数,平均收益率达9.28%</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3109ea054576a6e00ac4bba04320caa5\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"399\"><span></span></p>\n<p>①按照过往,末次加息后6个月与1年<br></p>\n<p>摩根全球国债指数,摩根投资级别债券指数,表现都相对不错。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7db7e9f34f2aba6ea04dbbee726d9769\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"291\"><span></span></p>\n<p>四,标的介绍:<br></p>\n<p>①20年期美债ETF,代码:TLT</p>\n<p>ETF介绍:投资剩余期限超过 20 年的长期美国国债</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b43699cf82db2214e5370b473214135\" tg-width=\"2208\" tg-height=\"1242\"><span class=\"\"></span></p>\n<p>②投资级公司债,代码:LQDETF介绍:主要是投资级别的公司债,目前规模达350亿美金,投资分散,前十大持仓占比约3%,除非极端事件,例如,2008年金融危机、2020年初疫情、2022年大幅加息,高位回调达20% ,其他时间,基本是相对稳健,股息高达近4%</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/088db2d047f9a4e04a8553b006ca5bff\" tg-width=\"2208\" tg-height=\"1242\"><span></span></p>\n<p>五:TLT+LQD过往表现<br></p>\n<p>①按照过往表现,末次加息~首次降息,TLT涨幅还是相对不错;LQD表现相对差了点。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd856579b0131238463cd33442918281\" tg-width=\"464\" tg-height=\"263\"><span></span></p>\n<p>②按照过往表现,降息时间段,TLT涨幅涨幅非常好,因为降息幅度比较大;而LQD表现相对比较差,LQD是投资级别公司债,虽然在降息周期是利好,但如果遇到极端事件,因为公司也受经济影响,则股价回调幅度也是比较大。</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>则20年期美债ETF:TLT会更加稳健</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1dfa12d4ef254b4017105f78ffe08b3\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"246\"><span></span></p>\n<p>提示:过往表现并不代表未来表现,只作为投资参考<br></p></body></html>","text":"一,为什么配置长期美债ETF+投机级美元债券呢? 1,临近加息周期末期 2,按照过往,加息末期到降息期间,美债ETF+投资级别债,价格基本站稳。如果接下来暂停加息+降息,则可以赚取债券利息+债券价格上涨的收益。挑选长期美债,是因为弹性大。 二,根据芝加哥期货CME预测:美联储的货币政策,是影响债券价格走势的主要因素之一,2022.03开启加息周期,已经加息10次,基准利率攀升到5%~5.25%,按照CME预测,接下来最多基本也就加息50个基点,封顶值为5.5~5.75%,则加息周期进入末期。 三,按照过往,债券指数表现 ①按照过往,末次加息~首次降息: 摩根全球国债指数,平均收益率达6.05% 摩根投资级别债券指数,平均收益率达9.28% ①按照过往,末次加息后6个月与1年 摩根全球国债指数,摩根投资级别债券指数,表现都相对不错。 四,标的介绍: ①20年期美债ETF,代码:TLT ETF介绍:投资剩余期限超过 20 年的长期美国国债 ②投资级公司债,代码:LQDETF介绍:主要是投资级别的公司债,目前规模达350亿美金,投资分散,前十大持仓占比约3%,除非极端事件,例如,2008年金融危机、2020年初疫情、2022年大幅加息,高位回调达20% ,其他时间,基本是相对稳健,股息高达近4% 五:TLT+LQD过往表现 ①按照过往表现,末次加息~首次降息,TLT涨幅还是相对不错;LQD表现相对差了点。 ②按照过往表现,降息时间段,TLT涨幅涨幅非常好,因为降息幅度比较大;而LQD表现相对比较差,LQD是投资级别公司债,虽然在降息周期是利好,但如果遇到极端事件,因为公司也受经济影响,则股价回调幅度也是比较大。 则20年期美债ETF:TLT会更加稳健 提示:过往表现并不代表未来表现,只作为投资参考","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186406836314240","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["TNmain","UBmain","ZTmain","ZFmain","BND","ZBmain","ZNmain"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1266,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3080,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/655199024"}
精彩评论