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2022-01-27

Market dying

11 arguments that will define 'titanic battle' between stock market bulls and bears as Fed lifts rates<blockquote>美联储加息时股市多头和空头之间的“泰坦尼克号之战”的 11 个论点将定义</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":639879767,"tweetId":"639879767","gmtCreate":1643262099352,"gmtModify":1643262099632,"author":{"id":3574724399840291,"idStr":"3574724399840291","authorId":3574724399840291,"authorIdStr":"3574724399840291","name":"Jabinlim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b7f0f6ddc76fb4fc1d066ca1b55493","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":27,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Market dying&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Market dying&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Market dying","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639879767","repostId":2206894951,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2206894951","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1643242860,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2206894951?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-27 08:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"11 arguments that will define 'titanic battle' between stock market bulls and bears as Fed lifts rates<blockquote>美联储加息时股市多头和空头之间的“泰坦尼克号之战”的 11 个论点将定义</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2206894951","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Equity market won't be a 'one-way street' as hiking cycle gets under way: Deutsche Bank's RuskinFede","content":"<html><head></head><body>Equity market won&#39;t be a &#39;one-way street&#39; as hiking cycle gets under way: Deutsche Bank&#39;s Ruskin<blockquote><html><head></head><body>随着加息周期的开始，股市不会是一条“单行道”：德意志银行的罗斯金</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dd6bbcfb2a13d8db8a001db7e33935d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Pool/Getty Images<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔池/盖蒂图片社</blockquote>Stock-market bulls and bears are set to fight a &#34;titanic battle&#34; in the months ahead as the Federal Reserve prepares to lift interest rates, a top macro strategist warned late Tuesday.<blockquote>一位顶级宏观策略师周二晚间警告称，随着美联储准备加息，股市多头和空头将在未来几个月展开一场“泰坦尼克号战斗”。</blockquote>The equity market, which has stumbled heavily to begin 2022, as Treasury yields rose and investors ramped up expectations for an aggressive series of rate increases and other measures by the Fed, will be &#34;far from a one-way street,&#34; wrote Deutsche Bank&#39;s Alan Ruskin in a note.<blockquote>德意志银行 (Deutsche Bank) 的艾伦·罗斯金 (Alan Ruskin) 在一份报告中写道，随着国债收益率上升以及投资者对美联储一系列激进加息和其他措施的预期提高，2022 年初股市重挫。</blockquote>To that end, he offered up a list of 11 arguments &#34;that bulls and bear can use to counterpunch each other.&#34; (See below.)<blockquote>为此，他列出了“多头和空头可以用来相互反击”的 11 个论点。（见下文。）</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49b64fadbdf92f854ed038d2058dbb18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"623\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote>&#34;As always it is how these factors are ranked and weighted in importance that counts. For example the idea that the Fed is taking away the punch bowl may be enough to trump most the other factors -- although historically (and contrary to popular opinion) equities have generally done reasonably well when tightening is under way,&#34; Ruskin wrote.<blockquote>“一如既往，重要的是这些因素的排名和重要性权重。例如，美联储正在拿走潘趣酒碗的想法可能足以胜过大多数其他因素——尽管从历史上看（与流行观点相反）股市在紧缩政策进行时通常表现相当不错，”拉斯金写道。</blockquote>As noted by MarketWatch&#39;s Mark DeCambre, data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data going back to 1989 shows the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average during hiking cycles is nearly 55%, while the S&amp;P 500 has seen an average rise of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite has averaged a positive return of 102.7%.<blockquote>正如 MarketWatch 的 Mark DeCambre 所指出的，道琼斯市场数据自 1989 年以来汇编的数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数在上涨周期期间的平均回报率接近 55%，而标普500平均涨幅为 62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数平均正回报率为 102.7%。</blockquote>The Fed, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, issued a statement that laid the groundwork for a widely expected March rate increase. Stocks initially extended gains following the policy statement, then erased their advance during Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell&#39;s news conference, ending mostly lower.<blockquote>美联储在周三为期两天的会议结束时发表声明，为人们普遍预期的3月份加息奠定了基础。政策声明发布后，股市最初扩大了涨幅，但在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会上抹去了涨幅，收盘时大多走低。</blockquote>Traders have priced in an aggressive round of rate hikes in 2022. Some have even penciled in the possibility of a 50 basis point, or 0.5 percentage point, rise in March rather than the more widely expected, and usual, 25-basis-point rise. Some market watchers contend that market participants have become overly aggressive on rate expectations, leaving room for a positive surprise if Powell doesn&#39;t significantly enhance the central bank&#39;s already hawkish posture.<blockquote>交易员已预计 2022 年将出现一轮激进的加息。一些人甚至预测 3 月份可能会上涨 50 个基点，即 0.5 个百分点，而不是人们普遍预期的、通常的 25 个基点。一些市场观察人士认为，市场参与者对利率预期变得过于激进，如果鲍威尔不显着增强央行本已鹰派的立场，就会出现积极的意外。</blockquote>Looking ahead, Ruskin said risky assets are likely to be resilient to 25 basis point rate increases at the March, May and June meetings, even if that pace isn&#39;t fully priced into the market, &#34;as long as the path of tightening does not acknowledge a still quicker and more extensive tightening cycle ahead.&#34;<blockquote>展望未来，罗斯金表示，风险资产可能会对 3 月、5 月和 6 月会议上加息 25 个基点具有弹性，即使这一步伐没有被市场完全消化，“只要紧缩路径不承认未来将出现更快、更广泛的紧缩周期。”</blockquote>He noted that the market has only a little more than 50 basis points of hikes priced in for 2023, helping to keep expectations for the ceiling on the fed-funds rate, referred to as the terminal rate, below 2%.<blockquote>他指出，市场预计 2023 年加息幅度仅略高于 50 个基点，这有助于将联邦基金利率上限（称为最终利率）的预期保持在 2% 以下。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n11 arguments that will define 'titanic battle' between stock market bulls and bears as Fed lifts rates<blockquote>美联储加息时股市多头和空头之间的“泰坦尼克号之战”的 11 个论点将定义</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-01-27 08:21\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Equity market won&#39;t be a &#39;one-way street&#39; as hiking cycle gets under way: Deutsche Bank&#39;s Ruskin<blockquote><html><head></head><body>随着加息周期的开始，股市不会是一条“单行道”：德意志银行的罗斯金</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dd6bbcfb2a13d8db8a001db7e33935d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Pool/Getty Images<blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔池/盖蒂图片社</blockquote>Stock-market bulls and bears are set to fight a &#34;titanic battle&#34; in the months ahead as the Federal Reserve prepares to lift interest rates, a top macro strategist warned late Tuesday.<blockquote>一位顶级宏观策略师周二晚间警告称，随着美联储准备加息，股市多头和空头将在未来几个月展开一场“泰坦尼克号战斗”。</blockquote>The equity market, which has stumbled heavily to begin 2022, as Treasury yields rose and investors ramped up expectations for an aggressive series of rate increases and other measures by the Fed, will be &#34;far from a one-way street,&#34; wrote Deutsche Bank&#39;s Alan Ruskin in a note.<blockquote>德意志银行 (Deutsche Bank) 的艾伦·罗斯金 (Alan Ruskin) 在一份报告中写道，随着国债收益率上升以及投资者对美联储一系列激进加息和其他措施的预期提高，2022 年初股市重挫。</blockquote>To that end, he offered up a list of 11 arguments &#34;that bulls and bear can use to counterpunch each other.&#34; (See below.)<blockquote>为此，他列出了“多头和空头可以用来相互反击”的 11 个论点。（见下文。）</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49b64fadbdf92f854ed038d2058dbb18\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"623\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Deutsche Bank<blockquote>德意志银行</blockquote>&#34;As always it is how these factors are ranked and weighted in importance that counts. For example the idea that the Fed is taking away the punch bowl may be enough to trump most the other factors -- although historically (and contrary to popular opinion) equities have generally done reasonably well when tightening is under way,&#34; Ruskin wrote.<blockquote>“一如既往，重要的是这些因素的排名和重要性权重。例如，美联储正在拿走潘趣酒碗的想法可能足以胜过大多数其他因素——尽管从历史上看（与流行观点相反）股市在紧缩政策进行时通常表现相当不错，”拉斯金写道。</blockquote>As noted by MarketWatch&#39;s Mark DeCambre, data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data going back to 1989 shows the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average during hiking cycles is nearly 55%, while the S&amp;P 500 has seen an average rise of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite has averaged a positive return of 102.7%.<blockquote>正如 MarketWatch 的 Mark DeCambre 所指出的，道琼斯市场数据自 1989 年以来汇编的数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数在上涨周期期间的平均回报率接近 55%，而标普500平均涨幅为 62.9%，纳斯达克综合指数平均正回报率为 102.7%。</blockquote>The Fed, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, issued a statement that laid the groundwork for a widely expected March rate increase. Stocks initially extended gains following the policy statement, then erased their advance during Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell&#39;s news conference, ending mostly lower.<blockquote>美联储在周三为期两天的会议结束时发表声明，为人们普遍预期的3月份加息奠定了基础。政策声明发布后，股市最初扩大了涨幅，但在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会上抹去了涨幅，收盘时大多走低。</blockquote>Traders have priced in an aggressive round of rate hikes in 2022. Some have even penciled in the possibility of a 50 basis point, or 0.5 percentage point, rise in March rather than the more widely expected, and usual, 25-basis-point rise. Some market watchers contend that market participants have become overly aggressive on rate expectations, leaving room for a positive surprise if Powell doesn&#39;t significantly enhance the central bank&#39;s already hawkish posture.<blockquote>交易员已预计 2022 年将出现一轮激进的加息。一些人甚至预测 3 月份可能会上涨 50 个基点，即 0.5 个百分点，而不是人们普遍预期的、通常的 25 个基点。一些市场观察人士认为，市场参与者对利率预期变得过于激进，如果鲍威尔不显着增强央行本已鹰派的立场，就会出现积极的意外。</blockquote>Looking ahead, Ruskin said risky assets are likely to be resilient to 25 basis point rate increases at the March, May and June meetings, even if that pace isn&#39;t fully priced into the market, &#34;as long as the path of tightening does not acknowledge a still quicker and more extensive tightening cycle ahead.&#34;<blockquote>展望未来，罗斯金表示，风险资产可能会对 3 月、5 月和 6 月会议上加息 25 个基点具有弹性，即使这一步伐没有被市场完全消化，“只要紧缩路径不承认未来将出现更快、更广泛的紧缩周期。”</blockquote>He noted that the market has only a little more than 50 basis points of hikes priced in for 2023, helping to keep expectations for the ceiling on the fed-funds rate, referred to as the terminal rate, below 2%.<blockquote>他指出，市场预计 2023 年加息幅度仅略高于 50 个基点，这有助于将联邦基金利率上限（称为最终利率）的预期保持在 2% 以下。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/11-arguments-that-will-define-titanic-stock-market-battle-as-fed-raises-rates-11643219294?mod=hp_LATEST&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D03250748340802259633376614514522268876%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1643242671\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/11-arguments-that-will-define-titanic-stock-market-battle-as-fed-raises-rates-11643219294?mod=hp_LATEST&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D03250748340802259633376614514522268876%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1643242671","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2206894951","content_text":"Equity market won't be a 'one-way street' as hiking cycle gets under way: Deutsche Bank's RuskinFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Pool/Getty ImagesStock-market bulls and bears are set to fight a \"titanic battle\" in the months ahead as the Federal Reserve prepares to lift interest rates, a top macro strategist warned late Tuesday.The equity market, which has stumbled heavily to begin 2022, as Treasury yields rose and investors ramped up expectations for an aggressive series of rate increases and other measures by the Fed, will be \"far from a one-way street,\" wrote Deutsche Bank's Alan Ruskin in a note.To that end, he offered up a list of 11 arguments \"that bulls and bear can use to counterpunch each other.\" (See below.)Deutsche Bank\"As always it is how these factors are ranked and weighted in importance that counts. For example the idea that the Fed is taking away the punch bowl may be enough to trump most the other factors -- although historically (and contrary to popular opinion) equities have generally done reasonably well when tightening is under way,\" Ruskin wrote.As noted by MarketWatch's Mark DeCambre, data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data going back to 1989 shows the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average during hiking cycles is nearly 55%, while the S&P 500 has seen an average rise of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite has averaged a positive return of 102.7%.The Fed, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, issued a statement that laid the groundwork for a widely expected March rate increase. Stocks initially extended gains following the policy statement, then erased their advance during Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's news conference, ending mostly lower.Traders have priced in an aggressive round of rate hikes in 2022. Some have even penciled in the possibility of a 50 basis point, or 0.5 percentage point, rise in March rather than the more widely expected, and usual, 25-basis-point rise. Some market watchers contend that market participants have become overly aggressive on rate expectations, leaving room for a positive surprise if Powell doesn't significantly enhance the central bank's already hawkish posture.Looking ahead, Ruskin said risky assets are likely to be resilient to 25 basis point rate increases at the March, May and June meetings, even if that pace isn't fully priced into the market, \"as long as the path of tightening does not acknowledge a still quicker and more extensive tightening cycle ahead.\"He noted that the market has only a little more than 50 basis points of hikes priced in for 2023, helping to keep expectations for the ceiling on the fed-funds rate, referred to as the terminal rate, below 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.88,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4805,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/639879767"}