为何油价短期内很难回落？

2022-03-24

一个基本结论是：全球石油需求复苏的速度快于供需增长的速度。

目前全球石油需求已经恢复到疫情前夕的水平，而且根据预测，未来需求还会进一步增多。但是供给侧却无法保证相同速度的增长，尤其是今年的供需缺口可能会进一步扩大。更多的出行需求、飙升的煤炭和天然气价格，以及发展中国家强劲的需求，都助推着石油价格的飙升，尤其是俄乌冲突问题，将油价进一步推高。

至于石油供应问题，一方面是欧美对俄制裁的影响，另外一方面是前几年全球范围内受碳达峰和碳中和影响，削减了扩大石油产能的投资，由于这是一类长期投资，所以无法通过短期内增大投资就顺利解决产能问题。所以小镇看来，石油价格短期内难以大幅回落，可能今年整年都会在高位徘徊。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$中国石油(601857)$$英国石油(BP)$$WTI原油2204(CL2204)$

俄乌危机震动全球市场

俄罗斯与乌克兰的紧张局势不止重创俄罗斯金融市场，西方世界、尤其是毗邻俄罗斯的欧洲市场都未能幸免。

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

山河故人在
2022-03-25
山河故人在
主要是国外的疫情恢复了，完全的复工复产催生了石油需求的迅速攀升
完美少年
2022-03-25
完美少年
最近的石油涨价完完全全就是人为因素造成的
听风于野
2022-03-25
听风于野
油价涨不涨，短期国内的油价也是不会降的
长歌灯火时
2022-03-25
长歌灯火时
世界范围内，好几个主要石油供给端都出问题了，很难不涨价
空对庭深
2022-03-25
空对庭深
历史经验表明，油价在经历一轮上涨之后，总要满满回落的，只是周期的长短问题
书煮日月
2022-03-25
书煮日月
涨吧涨吧，少开点车就行

发表看法

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