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2022-02-28
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Shopify Or Etsy? Here's Why I Am Buying Both<blockquote>Shopify还是Etsy？这就是我两者都买的原因</blockquote>
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Here's Why I Am Buying Both<blockquote>Shopify还是Etsy？这就是我两者都买的原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108647607","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe eCommerce industry has been one of the industries that has suffered the most in the recen","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The eCommerce industry has been one of the industries that has suffered the most in the recent tech market sell-off.</li><li>Both Shopify and Etsy have fallen victim to this, now standing down significantly from all-time highs.</li><li>Both companies operate extremely lucrative business models with large Total Addressable Markets.</li><li>I am taking a piece of both of these successful businesses at current valuations for the long-term.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f0fc12400992a6e1b1cedad45cb9655\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>MStudioImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电子商务行业是最近科技市场抛售中受影响最大的行业之一。</li><li>Shopify 和 Etsy 都成为了受害者，现在已从历史高点大幅回落。</li><li>两家公司都运营着利润丰厚的商业模式，拥有庞大的总目标市场。</li><li>从长远来看，我将以目前的估值从这两个成功的企业中分一杯羹。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MStudioImages/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p>eCommerce is undeniably one of the biggest market opportunities for the coming years and any company that takes a piece of this pie will set itself up for huge growth over the long run. Both Shopify (SHOP) and Etsy (ETSY) have had tremendous success in occupying those positions.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，电子商务是未来几年最大的市场机会之一，任何分一杯羹的公司都将从长远来看实现巨大的增长。Shopify (SHOP) 和 Etsy (Etsy) 在占据这些位置方面都取得了巨大的成功。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors like to draw competition between the two companies, but I believe there is enormous potential and value in holding both of them. In this article, I am going to discuss why I am buying stock in both Etsy and Shopify.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者喜欢在两家公司之间进行竞争，但我相信持有这两家公司都有巨大的潜力和价值。在这篇文章中，我将讨论为什么我要同时购买Etsy和Shopify的股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>The competitive edge - different focuses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势——不同的焦点</b></blockquote></p><p>In many ways, it's easy to see the argument that Shopify and Etsy are direct competitors. Both offer solutions for merchants to set up their own shops. Shopify does this by providing powerful sales tools and a complete system that allows sellers to set up their own websites with their payment systems. While Etsy provides sellers with the tools to join their expansive marketplace and the traction that comes with that.</p><p><blockquote>从很多方面来说，很容易看出Shopify和Etsy是直接竞争对手的论点。两者都为商家开设自己的商店提供解决方案。Shopify通过提供强大的销售工具和一个完整的系统来做到这一点，该系统允许卖家用他们的支付系统建立自己的网站。而Etsy为卖家提供了加入其广阔市场的工具以及随之而来的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>While the solutions and offerings provided are similar, I believe both are meeting significant needs within the eCommerce industry. Etsy provides an immediate easy way to set up shop on the website with a small listing fee and gives sellers immediate access to 96 million active buyers on its platform. For someone who is looking to gain immediate buyer attention, this is really appealing. A risk that many investors discuss that faces Etsy is that when sellers scale on the platform, they can just transfer off to Shopify. However, when sellers grow their business on the platform, utilizing Etsy's name and seller features to get started, it's then very hard to transfer this off the platform. Add to this the fact doing so would remove numerous potential buyers who use Etsy every day - the platform becomes very 'sticky'.</p><p><blockquote>虽然提供的解决方案和产品是相似的，但我相信两者都满足了电子商务行业的巨大需求。Etsy提供了一种在网站上开店的即时简单的方法，只需支付少量的上市费用，并让卖家可以立即接触到其平台上的9600万活跃买家。对于那些希望立即获得买家关注的人来说，这真的很有吸引力。许多投资者讨论的 Etsy 面临的一个风险是，当卖家在该平台上扩大规模时，他们可以直接转移到 Shopify。然而，当卖家利用Etsy的名称和卖家功能在平台上发展业务时，很难将其转移到平台上。除此之外，这样做会消除许多每天使用Etsy的潜在买家——这个平台变得非常“粘性”。</blockquote></p><p>Whilst Etsy saw active buyers start to flatline over the last few quarters, spend per buyer continued to accelerate, proving the marketplace's ability to retain its most valuable customer cohort. These buyers are incredibly valuable when the marketplace faces headwinds related to mass reopenings across the world.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Etsy看到活跃买家在过去几个季度开始持平，但每个买家的支出继续加速，证明了该市场保留其最有价值客户群的能力。当市场面临与世界各地大规模重新开放相关的阻力时，这些买家非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p>Shopify, on the other hand, provides scale for businesses and empowers them to develop and create their own online store. The benefits of Shopify are the recurring revenue they attain from the subscription-based model, and the relatively lower fees paid in comparison to Etsy. Shopify also offers a broader range of services for merchants on the whole, creating numerous revenue pipeline opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Shopify为企业提供了规模，并使他们能够开发和创建自己的在线商店。Shopify 的优势在于他们从基于订阅的模式中获得的经常性收入，以及与 Etsy 相比支付的费用相对较低。Shopify 还为整个商家提供更广泛的服务，创造了众多收入渠道机会。</blockquote></p><p>Both Etsy and Shopify have flywheel effects that are significant contributing factors in their success:</p><p><blockquote>Etsy 和 Shopify 都具有飞轮效应，这是其成功的重要因素：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac3d4697c672ee5f7b5836254ce3500d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Shopify and Etsy Flywheel (Shopify Investor presentation and Author Created)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 和 Etsy Flywheel（Shopify 投资者演示和作者创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>This is where the real benefits of the pandemic come into play, the double-sided nature of both businesses means the huge amount of traction they have received through this pandemic has really kickstarted the flywheel effect and will benefit both companies for years to come. It's this aspect of the business that underlines why the market has historically charged a premium to these names - operating models like these are very lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>这就是大流行真正好处发挥作用的地方，两家企业的双面性质意味着他们通过这次大流行获得的巨大牵引力真正启动了飞轮效应，并将在未来几年使两家公司受益。正是业务的这一方面强调了为什么市场历来对这些名字收取溢价——像这样的运营模式非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p>The competitive edge of both businesses was shown not only through the number delivered over the last two years but also through their ability to grow at a faster pace than the broader eCommerce market. This reinforces the thesis that when you are buying these businesses, you are buying a stake in some of the best that eCommerce has to offer.</p><p><blockquote>这两家企业的竞争优势不仅体现在过去两年交付的数量上，还体现在它们以比更广泛的电子商务市场更快的速度增长的能力上。这强化了这样一个论点，即当你购买这些企业时，你就购买了电子商务所能提供的一些最好的企业的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Strong prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前景广阔</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The asset-light model of both of these businesses also makes them attractive in the current economic environment. This may sound surprising considering how badly hit they have been over the last three months directly as a result of the macro environment and prospects of rising interest rates. I, however, believe they can mitigate the effects that many other tech plays may struggle with. Issues such as wage-related inflation won't trouble Etsy or Shopify. As we come through this initial turmoil, I believe the market is going to look for high-quality businesses with a history of operating excellence, the pair have this.</p><p><blockquote>这两种业务的轻资产模式也使它们在当前的经济环境下具有吸引力。考虑到它们在过去三个月直接受到宏观环境和利率上升前景的严重打击，这听起来可能令人惊讶。然而，我相信它们可以减轻许多其他科技游戏可能难以应对的影响。与工资相关的通货膨胀等问题不会困扰 Etsy 或 Shopify。当我们经历最初的动荡时，我相信市场将寻找具有卓越运营历史的优质企业，这对组合就具备这种能力。</blockquote></p><p>In many ways, I foresee a 'tech divergence' coming, where the highest quality tech names start to outperform peers. For the last two years, pretty much all of tech has had huge success, even though many have performed better than others. This symmetry has also occurred during this tech crash, where pretty much all tech firms have fallen victim. Looking forward, companies can't just rely on broader market sentiment as a tailwind, they have to deliver and I believe will be rewarded for doing so - Etsy and Shopify have the ability to be these businesses.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，我预见到“技术分歧”即将到来，最高质量的科技公司开始优于同行。在过去的两年里，几乎所有的技术都取得了巨大的成功，尽管许多技术比其他人表现得更好。这种对称性也发生在这次科技崩溃中，几乎所有科技公司都成为了受害者。展望未来，公司不能仅仅依靠更广泛的市场情绪作为顺风，他们必须交付，我相信这样做会得到回报 - Etsy 和 Shopify 有能力成为这些企业。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值分析</b></blockquote></p><p>I have tabled some key comparison metrics below:</p><p><blockquote>我在下面列出了一些关键的比较指标：</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Comparison metric</b></td><td><b>Shopify</b></td><td><b>Etsy</b></td></tr><tr><td>NTM EV/EBITDA</td><td>128</td><td>25</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>比较度量</b></td><td><b>商店</b></td><td><b>埃齐</b></td></tr><tr><td>NTM EV/EBITDA</td><td>128</td><td>25</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>NTM P/E</td><td>172</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>NTM P/S</td><td>18</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>NTM Revenue Growth</td><td>31.7%</td><td>20.9%</td></tr><tr><td>NTM EV/Revenue</td><td>14.38</td><td>11.9</td></tr><tr><td>Return on Equity</td><td>72%</td><td>9.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Price/Free Cash Flow</td><td>1256</td><td>21.22</td></tr><tr><td>Debt/equity %</td><td>8.2%</td><td>150.6%</td></tr></tbody></table><i><b>Table compiled by Author using Refinitiv data</b></i></p><p><blockquote><tr><td>NTM市盈率</td><td>172</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>NTM P/S</td><td>18</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>NTM 收入增长</td><td>31.7%</td><td>20.9%</td></tr><tr><td>NTM EV/收入</td><td>14.38</td><td>11.9</td></tr><tr><td>股本回报率</td><td>72%</td><td>9.3%</td></tr><tr><td>价格/自由现金流</td><td>1256</td><td>21.22</td></tr><tr><td>债务/权益%</td><td>8.2%</td><td>150.6%</td></tr><i><b>作者使用Refinitiv数据编制的表格</b></i></blockquote></p><p>Etsy sits on far more attractive forward metrics such as EV/EBITDA and Fwd P/E ratio, however, also sits on more uncomfortable debt levels as a result of the acquisition of both Depop and Elo7 that was fueled bydebt. Shopify, on the other hand, has greater growth prospects and arguably stronger prospects to scale quickly from its current position. On the whole, from a financial standpoint, I find Etsy more attractive but the growth runway ahead for both companies cannot be understated and Shopify has the ability to deliver strong operating margins when it does move closer to maturity - which at this time is a long way off.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy 拥有更具吸引力的远期指标，例如 EV/EBITDA 和 Fwd 市盈率，然而，由于收购了 Depop 和 Elo7，Etsy 的债务水平也更加令人不安。另一方面，Shopify 具有更大的增长前景，并且可以说具有从当前位置快速扩张的更强前景。总体而言，从财务角度来看，我发现 Etsy 更具吸引力，但两家公司未来的增长跑道不可低估，而且 Shopify 有能力在接近成熟期时提供强劲的营业利润率——目前还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion - I am buying both</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论 - 我两个都买</b></blockquote></p><p>This has undeniably been an incredibly difficult period for the markets and tech investors in particular. The declines seen in eCommerce names are hard to stomach and it's difficult not to get caught up in all the negative sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，对于市场，尤其是科技投资者来说，这是一个极其困难的时期。电子商务名称的下滑令人难以接受，很难不陷入所有的负面情绪中。</blockquote></p><p>However, it's important in this to take a step back and see the opportunity that has emerged at these prices for both Shopify and Etsy. Both businesses operate incredibly viable and profitable business models in a fast-growing space. The pandemic has provided a material inflection point for both companies that will set them up for significant growth over the coming years. The effect of the pandemic-related 'eCommerce transition' will not simply fade away. I see both stocks, sitting significantly down from all-time highs, as a 'buy'.</p><p><blockquote>然而，重要的是后退一步，看看Shopify和Etsy在这些价格下出现的机会。这两家企业都在快速增长的领域运营着令人难以置信的可行和有利可图的商业模式。疫情为两家公司提供了一个重要的转折点，将为它们在未来几年的显著增长奠定基础。与疫情相关的“电子商务转型”的影响不会简单地消失。我认为这两只股票均较历史高点大幅下跌，都值得“买入”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify Or Etsy? 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Here's Why I Am Buying Both<blockquote>Shopify还是Etsy？这就是我两者都买的原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-28 17:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>The eCommerce industry has been one of the industries that has suffered the most in the recent tech market sell-off.</li><li>Both Shopify and Etsy have fallen victim to this, now standing down significantly from all-time highs.</li><li>Both companies operate extremely lucrative business models with large Total Addressable Markets.</li><li>I am taking a piece of both of these successful businesses at current valuations for the long-term.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f0fc12400992a6e1b1cedad45cb9655\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>MStudioImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电子商务行业是最近科技市场抛售中受影响最大的行业之一。</li><li>Shopify 和 Etsy 都成为了受害者，现在已从历史高点大幅回落。</li><li>两家公司都运营着利润丰厚的商业模式，拥有庞大的总目标市场。</li><li>从长远来看，我将以目前的估值从这两个成功的企业中分一杯羹。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MStudioImages/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p>eCommerce is undeniably one of the biggest market opportunities for the coming years and any company that takes a piece of this pie will set itself up for huge growth over the long run. Both Shopify (SHOP) and Etsy (ETSY) have had tremendous success in occupying those positions.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，电子商务是未来几年最大的市场机会之一，任何分一杯羹的公司都将从长远来看实现巨大的增长。Shopify (SHOP) 和 Etsy (Etsy) 在占据这些位置方面都取得了巨大的成功。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors like to draw competition between the two companies, but I believe there is enormous potential and value in holding both of them. In this article, I am going to discuss why I am buying stock in both Etsy and Shopify.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者喜欢在两家公司之间进行竞争，但我相信持有这两家公司都有巨大的潜力和价值。在这篇文章中，我将讨论为什么我要同时购买Etsy和Shopify的股票。</blockquote></p><p><b>The competitive edge - different focuses</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势——不同的焦点</b></blockquote></p><p>In many ways, it's easy to see the argument that Shopify and Etsy are direct competitors. Both offer solutions for merchants to set up their own shops. Shopify does this by providing powerful sales tools and a complete system that allows sellers to set up their own websites with their payment systems. While Etsy provides sellers with the tools to join their expansive marketplace and the traction that comes with that.</p><p><blockquote>从很多方面来说，很容易看出Shopify和Etsy是直接竞争对手的论点。两者都为商家开设自己的商店提供解决方案。Shopify通过提供强大的销售工具和一个完整的系统来做到这一点，该系统允许卖家用他们的支付系统建立自己的网站。而Etsy为卖家提供了加入其广阔市场的工具以及随之而来的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p>While the solutions and offerings provided are similar, I believe both are meeting significant needs within the eCommerce industry. Etsy provides an immediate easy way to set up shop on the website with a small listing fee and gives sellers immediate access to 96 million active buyers on its platform. For someone who is looking to gain immediate buyer attention, this is really appealing. A risk that many investors discuss that faces Etsy is that when sellers scale on the platform, they can just transfer off to Shopify. However, when sellers grow their business on the platform, utilizing Etsy's name and seller features to get started, it's then very hard to transfer this off the platform. Add to this the fact doing so would remove numerous potential buyers who use Etsy every day - the platform becomes very 'sticky'.</p><p><blockquote>虽然提供的解决方案和产品是相似的，但我相信两者都满足了电子商务行业的巨大需求。Etsy提供了一种在网站上开店的即时简单的方法，只需支付少量的上市费用，并让卖家可以立即接触到其平台上的9600万活跃买家。对于那些希望立即获得买家关注的人来说，这真的很有吸引力。许多投资者讨论的 Etsy 面临的一个风险是，当卖家在该平台上扩大规模时，他们可以直接转移到 Shopify。然而，当卖家利用Etsy的名称和卖家功能在平台上发展业务时，很难将其转移到平台上。除此之外，这样做会消除许多每天使用Etsy的潜在买家——这个平台变得非常“粘性”。</blockquote></p><p>Whilst Etsy saw active buyers start to flatline over the last few quarters, spend per buyer continued to accelerate, proving the marketplace's ability to retain its most valuable customer cohort. These buyers are incredibly valuable when the marketplace faces headwinds related to mass reopenings across the world.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Etsy看到活跃买家在过去几个季度开始持平，但每个买家的支出继续加速，证明了该市场保留其最有价值客户群的能力。当市场面临与世界各地大规模重新开放相关的阻力时，这些买家非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p>Shopify, on the other hand, provides scale for businesses and empowers them to develop and create their own online store. The benefits of Shopify are the recurring revenue they attain from the subscription-based model, and the relatively lower fees paid in comparison to Etsy. Shopify also offers a broader range of services for merchants on the whole, creating numerous revenue pipeline opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，Shopify为企业提供了规模，并使他们能够开发和创建自己的在线商店。Shopify 的优势在于他们从基于订阅的模式中获得的经常性收入，以及与 Etsy 相比支付的费用相对较低。Shopify 还为整个商家提供更广泛的服务，创造了众多收入渠道机会。</blockquote></p><p>Both Etsy and Shopify have flywheel effects that are significant contributing factors in their success:</p><p><blockquote>Etsy 和 Shopify 都具有飞轮效应，这是其成功的重要因素：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac3d4697c672ee5f7b5836254ce3500d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Shopify and Etsy Flywheel (Shopify Investor presentation and Author Created)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopify 和 Etsy Flywheel（Shopify 投资者演示和作者创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>This is where the real benefits of the pandemic come into play, the double-sided nature of both businesses means the huge amount of traction they have received through this pandemic has really kickstarted the flywheel effect and will benefit both companies for years to come. It's this aspect of the business that underlines why the market has historically charged a premium to these names - operating models like these are very lucrative.</p><p><blockquote>这就是大流行真正好处发挥作用的地方，两家企业的双面性质意味着他们通过这次大流行获得的巨大牵引力真正启动了飞轮效应，并将在未来几年使两家公司受益。正是业务的这一方面强调了为什么市场历来对这些名字收取溢价——像这样的运营模式非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p>The competitive edge of both businesses was shown not only through the number delivered over the last two years but also through their ability to grow at a faster pace than the broader eCommerce market. This reinforces the thesis that when you are buying these businesses, you are buying a stake in some of the best that eCommerce has to offer.</p><p><blockquote>这两家企业的竞争优势不仅体现在过去两年交付的数量上，还体现在它们以比更广泛的电子商务市场更快的速度增长的能力上。这强化了这样一个论点，即当你购买这些企业时，你就购买了电子商务所能提供的一些最好的企业的股份。</blockquote></p><p><b>Strong prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前景广阔</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>The asset-light model of both of these businesses also makes them attractive in the current economic environment. This may sound surprising considering how badly hit they have been over the last three months directly as a result of the macro environment and prospects of rising interest rates. I, however, believe they can mitigate the effects that many other tech plays may struggle with. Issues such as wage-related inflation won't trouble Etsy or Shopify. As we come through this initial turmoil, I believe the market is going to look for high-quality businesses with a history of operating excellence, the pair have this.</p><p><blockquote>这两种业务的轻资产模式也使它们在当前的经济环境下具有吸引力。考虑到它们在过去三个月直接受到宏观环境和利率上升前景的严重打击，这听起来可能令人惊讶。然而，我相信它们可以减轻许多其他科技游戏可能难以应对的影响。与工资相关的通货膨胀等问题不会困扰 Etsy 或 Shopify。当我们经历最初的动荡时，我相信市场将寻找具有卓越运营历史的优质企业，这对组合就具备这种能力。</blockquote></p><p>In many ways, I foresee a 'tech divergence' coming, where the highest quality tech names start to outperform peers. For the last two years, pretty much all of tech has had huge success, even though many have performed better than others. This symmetry has also occurred during this tech crash, where pretty much all tech firms have fallen victim. Looking forward, companies can't just rely on broader market sentiment as a tailwind, they have to deliver and I believe will be rewarded for doing so - Etsy and Shopify have the ability to be these businesses.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，我预见到“技术分歧”即将到来，最高质量的科技公司开始优于同行。在过去的两年里，几乎所有的技术都取得了巨大的成功，尽管许多技术比其他人表现得更好。这种对称性也发生在这次科技崩溃中，几乎所有科技公司都成为了受害者。展望未来，公司不能仅仅依靠更广泛的市场情绪作为顺风，他们必须交付，我相信这样做会得到回报 - Etsy 和 Shopify 有能力成为这些企业。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值分析</b></blockquote></p><p>I have tabled some key comparison metrics below:</p><p><blockquote>我在下面列出了一些关键的比较指标：</blockquote></p><p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Comparison metric</b></td><td><b>Shopify</b></td><td><b>Etsy</b></td></tr><tr><td>NTM EV/EBITDA</td><td>128</td><td>25</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>比较度量</b></td><td><b>商店</b></td><td><b>埃齐</b></td></tr><tr><td>NTM EV/EBITDA</td><td>128</td><td>25</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td></tr><tr><td>NTM P/E</td><td>172</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>NTM P/S</td><td>18</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>NTM Revenue Growth</td><td>31.7%</td><td>20.9%</td></tr><tr><td>NTM EV/Revenue</td><td>14.38</td><td>11.9</td></tr><tr><td>Return on Equity</td><td>72%</td><td>9.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Price/Free Cash Flow</td><td>1256</td><td>21.22</td></tr><tr><td>Debt/equity %</td><td>8.2%</td><td>150.6%</td></tr></tbody></table><i><b>Table compiled by Author using Refinitiv data</b></i></p><p><blockquote><tr><td>NTM市盈率</td><td>172</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>NTM P/S</td><td>18</td><td>8</td></tr><tr><td>NTM 收入增长</td><td>31.7%</td><td>20.9%</td></tr><tr><td>NTM EV/收入</td><td>14.38</td><td>11.9</td></tr><tr><td>股本回报率</td><td>72%</td><td>9.3%</td></tr><tr><td>价格/自由现金流</td><td>1256</td><td>21.22</td></tr><tr><td>债务/权益%</td><td>8.2%</td><td>150.6%</td></tr><i><b>作者使用Refinitiv数据编制的表格</b></i></blockquote></p><p>Etsy sits on far more attractive forward metrics such as EV/EBITDA and Fwd P/E ratio, however, also sits on more uncomfortable debt levels as a result of the acquisition of both Depop and Elo7 that was fueled bydebt. Shopify, on the other hand, has greater growth prospects and arguably stronger prospects to scale quickly from its current position. On the whole, from a financial standpoint, I find Etsy more attractive but the growth runway ahead for both companies cannot be understated and Shopify has the ability to deliver strong operating margins when it does move closer to maturity - which at this time is a long way off.</p><p><blockquote>Etsy 拥有更具吸引力的远期指标，例如 EV/EBITDA 和 Fwd 市盈率，然而，由于收购了 Depop 和 Elo7，Etsy 的债务水平也更加令人不安。另一方面，Shopify 具有更大的增长前景，并且可以说具有从当前位置快速扩张的更强前景。总体而言，从财务角度来看，我发现 Etsy 更具吸引力，但两家公司未来的增长跑道不可低估，而且 Shopify 有能力在接近成熟期时提供强劲的营业利润率——目前还有很长的路要走。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion - I am buying both</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论 - 我两个都买</b></blockquote></p><p>This has undeniably been an incredibly difficult period for the markets and tech investors in particular. The declines seen in eCommerce names are hard to stomach and it's difficult not to get caught up in all the negative sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，对于市场，尤其是科技投资者来说，这是一个极其困难的时期。电子商务名称的下滑令人难以接受，很难不陷入所有的负面情绪中。</blockquote></p><p>However, it's important in this to take a step back and see the opportunity that has emerged at these prices for both Shopify and Etsy. Both businesses operate incredibly viable and profitable business models in a fast-growing space. The pandemic has provided a material inflection point for both companies that will set them up for significant growth over the coming years. The effect of the pandemic-related 'eCommerce transition' will not simply fade away. I see both stocks, sitting significantly down from all-time highs, as a 'buy'.</p><p><blockquote>然而，重要的是后退一步，看看Shopify和Etsy在这些价格下出现的机会。这两家企业都在快速增长的领域运营着令人难以置信的可行和有利可图的商业模式。疫情为两家公司提供了一个重要的转折点，将为它们在未来几年的显著增长奠定基础。与疫情相关的“电子商务转型”的影响不会简单地消失。我认为这两只股票均较历史高点大幅下跌，都值得“买入”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4491214-shopify-or-etsy-heres-why-i-am-buying-both\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4491214-shopify-or-etsy-heres-why-i-am-buying-both","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108647607","content_text":"SummaryThe eCommerce industry has been one of the industries that has suffered the most in the recent tech market sell-off.Both Shopify and Etsy have fallen victim to this, now standing down significantly from all-time highs.Both companies operate extremely lucrative business models with large Total Addressable Markets.I am taking a piece of both of these successful businesses at current valuations for the long-term.MStudioImages/E+ via Getty ImageseCommerce is undeniably one of the biggest market opportunities for the coming years and any company that takes a piece of this pie will set itself up for huge growth over the long run. Both Shopify (SHOP) and Etsy (ETSY) have had tremendous success in occupying those positions.Many investors like to draw competition between the two companies, but I believe there is enormous potential and value in holding both of them. In this article, I am going to discuss why I am buying stock in both Etsy and Shopify.The competitive edge - different focusesIn many ways, it's easy to see the argument that Shopify and Etsy are direct competitors. Both offer solutions for merchants to set up their own shops. Shopify does this by providing powerful sales tools and a complete system that allows sellers to set up their own websites with their payment systems. While Etsy provides sellers with the tools to join their expansive marketplace and the traction that comes with that.While the solutions and offerings provided are similar, I believe both are meeting significant needs within the eCommerce industry. Etsy provides an immediate easy way to set up shop on the website with a small listing fee and gives sellers immediate access to 96 million active buyers on its platform. For someone who is looking to gain immediate buyer attention, this is really appealing. A risk that many investors discuss that faces Etsy is that when sellers scale on the platform, they can just transfer off to Shopify. However, when sellers grow their business on the platform, utilizing Etsy's name and seller features to get started, it's then very hard to transfer this off the platform. Add to this the fact doing so would remove numerous potential buyers who use Etsy every day - the platform becomes very 'sticky'.Whilst Etsy saw active buyers start to flatline over the last few quarters, spend per buyer continued to accelerate, proving the marketplace's ability to retain its most valuable customer cohort. These buyers are incredibly valuable when the marketplace faces headwinds related to mass reopenings across the world.Shopify, on the other hand, provides scale for businesses and empowers them to develop and create their own online store. The benefits of Shopify are the recurring revenue they attain from the subscription-based model, and the relatively lower fees paid in comparison to Etsy. Shopify also offers a broader range of services for merchants on the whole, creating numerous revenue pipeline opportunities.Both Etsy and Shopify have flywheel effects that are significant contributing factors in their success:Shopify and Etsy Flywheel (Shopify Investor presentation and Author Created)This is where the real benefits of the pandemic come into play, the double-sided nature of both businesses means the huge amount of traction they have received through this pandemic has really kickstarted the flywheel effect and will benefit both companies for years to come. It's this aspect of the business that underlines why the market has historically charged a premium to these names - operating models like these are very lucrative.The competitive edge of both businesses was shown not only through the number delivered over the last two years but also through their ability to grow at a faster pace than the broader eCommerce market. This reinforces the thesis that when you are buying these businesses, you are buying a stake in some of the best that eCommerce has to offer.Strong prospectsThe asset-light model of both of these businesses also makes them attractive in the current economic environment. This may sound surprising considering how badly hit they have been over the last three months directly as a result of the macro environment and prospects of rising interest rates. I, however, believe they can mitigate the effects that many other tech plays may struggle with. Issues such as wage-related inflation won't trouble Etsy or Shopify. As we come through this initial turmoil, I believe the market is going to look for high-quality businesses with a history of operating excellence, the pair have this.In many ways, I foresee a 'tech divergence' coming, where the highest quality tech names start to outperform peers. For the last two years, pretty much all of tech has had huge success, even though many have performed better than others. This symmetry has also occurred during this tech crash, where pretty much all tech firms have fallen victim. Looking forward, companies can't just rely on broader market sentiment as a tailwind, they have to deliver and I believe will be rewarded for doing so - Etsy and Shopify have the ability to be these businesses.Valuation analysisI have tabled some key comparison metrics below:Comparison metricShopifyEtsyNTM EV/EBITDA12825NTM P/E17240NTM P/S188NTM Revenue Growth31.7%20.9%NTM EV/Revenue14.3811.9Return on Equity72%9.3%Price/Free Cash Flow125621.22Debt/equity %8.2%150.6%Table compiled by Author using Refinitiv dataEtsy sits on far more attractive forward metrics such as EV/EBITDA and Fwd P/E ratio, however, also sits on more uncomfortable debt levels as a result of the acquisition of both Depop and Elo7 that was fueled bydebt. Shopify, on the other hand, has greater growth prospects and arguably stronger prospects to scale quickly from its current position. On the whole, from a financial standpoint, I find Etsy more attractive but the growth runway ahead for both companies cannot be understated and Shopify has the ability to deliver strong operating margins when it does move closer to maturity - which at this time is a long way off.Conclusion - I am buying bothThis has undeniably been an incredibly difficult period for the markets and tech investors in particular. The declines seen in eCommerce names are hard to stomach and it's difficult not to get caught up in all the negative sentiment.However, it's important in this to take a step back and see the opportunity that has emerged at these prices for both Shopify and Etsy. Both businesses operate incredibly viable and profitable business models in a fast-growing space. The pandemic has provided a material inflection point for both companies that will set them up for significant growth over the coming years. The effect of the pandemic-related 'eCommerce transition' will not simply fade away. I see both stocks, sitting significantly down from all-time highs, as a 'buy'.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ETSY":0.9,"SHOP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5178,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/636483894"}
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