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2022-02-05

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Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机会？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":633675745,"tweetId":"633675745","gmtCreate":1644055930076,"gmtModify":1644055930486,"author":{"id":4087870165979230,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorId":4087870165979230,"authorIdStr":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":26,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Lik3 pls</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Lik3 pls</body></html>","text":"Lik3 pls","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633675745","repostId":1196927717,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196927717?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机会？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>截至 2021 年第三季度，Palantir 总共只有 203 家客户，而其中只有 20 家客户占总收入的 58%。</li><li>与 2020 年相比，2021 年前三个季度，Palantir 核心客户群的收入年增长率放缓至 20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其进入市场的战略。该公司现在正利用现金积极投资其他同意购买 Palantir 软件的公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售增长 30%。然而，Palantir 的三阶段商业模式表明，不包括被投资方的销售额，销售额将呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir 提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该将其列入所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul>agawa288/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.<blockquote>我给予 Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) 中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期机遇在于成为能够整合结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速放缓以及估值升高，从而提供了有限的误差空间。</blockquote>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral<blockquote>风险/回报评级：中性</blockquote>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.<blockquote>与企业软件行业的同行相比，Palantir 在如何获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：（1）收购，（2）扩张，以及（3）规模化。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的案例中是独一无二的。</blockquote>Customer Detail<blockquote>客户详情</blockquote>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.<blockquote>Palantir 将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底产生的收入低于 100,000 美元，但对 Palantir 来说无利可图的客户。扩展队列的特点是客户创造了超过100,000美元的销售额，但仍然没有盈利。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元的收入，同时是盈利关系的客户。</blockquote>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.<blockquote>下表编制自 Palantir 向美国证券交易委员会提交的 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告。第一个表格显示了 Palantir 2020 年每个客户群体的销售额，这些客户群体在 2020 年底进行了分类（2020 年收入）。在2021年年化列中，您可以找到截至2021年第三季度的2020年客户群体的销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去 12 个月中 Palantir 最大客户的关键细节，以及 2021 年新加入 Palantir 但尚未被分配到队列中的客户的关键细节。队列分类发生在每年年底。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.<blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir 的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.<blockquote>根据定义，Palantir 最大的客户属于规模群体。在2021年前三个季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）正以20%的年化增长率增长。鉴于这一群体占 Palantir 收入的 86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，要将销售增长率大幅提高到 20% 以上将是一项挑战。应该指出的是，管理层的目标是到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.<blockquote>2020年年终收购和扩展队列在上表中以黄色突出显示。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资的客户获取策略极为不寻常，并承担极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，进而引入品牌风险。</blockquote>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.<blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指 Palantir 使用 Palantir 的软件购买被投资方股票作为回报的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是 Palantir 投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些都不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.<blockquote>与2021年规模队列年增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售年增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张队列的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir 的基本销售增长率似乎将接近 20%，而不是该公司到十年中期 30% 的销售增长指导。</blockquote>Investees<blockquote>投资</blockquote>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.<blockquote>重要的是要退后一步，重新审视 Palantir 对被投资方的投资，因为这是一种非常不寻常的客户获取市场策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为 20%，这为 Palantir 利用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金提供了新的视角。下表编制自 Palantir 2021 年第三季度 10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了 Palantir 对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.<blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的审查。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的增长领域的早期公司。这些领域包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。所有被投资方似乎都没有提供足够的升值潜力来大幅推动 Palantir 的估值。Palantir 的持股比例从 0.4% 到 1.6% 不等。</blockquote>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.<blockquote>目前还不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于 Palantir 的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司到 2021 年第三季度的 1900 万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.<blockquote>我在 blue Palantir 对这七家公司的总投资为 1.5 亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir 目前仅这七家公司就亏损了约 6400 万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司投资，但是，Palantir 没有透露细节。截至 2021 年第三季度，它们被计入 Palantir 资产负债表上的其他资产，总额为 1.16 亿美元。</blockquote>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.<blockquote>下表显示了 Palantir 截至 2021 年第三季度对新公司的投资承诺。我用黄色突出显示了 Palantir 在 2021 年第三季度末资助的两家公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.<blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至 2021 年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是第三季度末之前完成的 1.5 亿美元之外的 2.52 亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。也就是说，与 Palantir 软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，它们似乎承担了极大的资本风险，上涨潜力可能微乎其微。应该指出的是，最近的估值是极端的，并继续快速收缩。因此，在风险投资/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也增加了资本损失的时机风险。</blockquote>Financial Performance<blockquote>财务表现</blockquote>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.<blockquote>谈到 Palantir 最近的业绩，我选择将销售增长排除在被投资方之外，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表编制自 Palantir 向美国证券交易委员会提交的 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告。我进行了调整，删除了被投资方的收入，得出了净收入数字。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.<blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后 2021 年第三季度 29% 的收入增长。第三季度被投资企业增长了 6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29% 的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期 30% 的增长率。请记住，随着 Palantir 投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入来源将会增加。无论如何，第三季度的增长率正在迅速放缓，为 29%，而年初至今为 41%，不包括这些非公平销售。</blockquote>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales<blockquote>地理和分部销售</blockquote>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.<blockquote>销售放缓的主要原因是法国，2021 年前三个季度销量萎缩了 22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但增长正在迅速放缓，下面的蓝色突出显示的单元格就证明了这一点。该表是根据 Palantir 向美国证券交易委员会提交的 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告编制的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.<blockquote>除了法国，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前九个月的 45% 下降到 2021 年第三季度的 20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是从同一份 SEC 文件中编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方的收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度的增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.<blockquote>总之，商业分部的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约 29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速放缓，从 2021 年前 9 个月的 57% 下降到第三季度的 34%。</blockquote>Gross Profit &amp; KPI<blockquote>毛利及关键绩效指标</blockquote>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:<blockquote>Palantir 不同寻常的客户获取策略早于向被投资方的转变。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与为其他公司销售商品的成本非常相似。这是因为 Palantir 为潜在客户提供免费试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售额。以下摘自 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 的报价总结了情况：</blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.<blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、基于股票的薪酬费用以及参与执行试点和客户增长活动的销售人员和人员的福利……因此，我认为 Palantir 的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本并减少到毛利率。虽然这种分类不会影响利润，但它确实有助于将报告的 78% 毛利率置于上下文中。</blockquote>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.<blockquote>我认为，这种关于销售和营销费用的观点有助于思考 Palantir 相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖于毛利率的相对估值。下表根据 Palantir 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告编制而成，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关的基于股票的薪酬费用进行调整后的收入、销售和营销费用报告成本。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.<blockquote>请注意，第三季度调整后毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（表格下部蓝色突出显示），而2021年前9个月为59%（黄色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本正在迅速上升。</blockquote>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.<blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，这被称为贡献边际。这与我上面的调整后毛利率数字相似，从下表可以看出，该表格是根据 Palantir 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告编制的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.<blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中我调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的单元格中可以看到的。虽然 37% 与我估计的 25% 增长有很大不同，但低于 64% 的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote>Operating Income<blockquote>经营利润</blockquote>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.<blockquote>谈到经营利润，我再次调整了报告的数字，删除了与股票期权相关的费用以及与 2020 年直接上市 IPO 相关的一次性费用。压倒一切的信息再次是快速减速。下表是从同一份SEC文件中编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的经营利润估计。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.<blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后经营利润的增长率令人难以置信地放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的增长率为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速加速，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长5%。</blockquote>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.<blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应通过三个客户阶段跟踪销售周期：获取、扩张和扩大。由于销售和营销部门确定了客户需求，因此研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这种情况似乎没有发生。</blockquote>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.<blockquote>截至 2021 年第三季度，Palantir 的年化调整后经营利润运行率约为 300 万至 3.2 亿美元，即约每股 0.16 美元。这是税前经营利润数字。经营利润方面的主要收获是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote>Consensus Growth Estimates<blockquote>共识增长估计</blockquote>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.<blockquote>如果 Palantir 的调整后年经营利润运行税率为 3.2 亿美元，并且按 25% 的标准化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在 2.4 亿美元范围内，即每股稀释后 0.12 美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长放缓，我们可以开始将共识的盈利预测放在背景中。下表由 Seeking Alpha 编制，显示了到 2023 年的共识盈利和收入预期。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>来源：寻求阿尔法。由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.<blockquote>我强调了 2022 年盈利和销售增长的共识预期。请注意，2022 年 39% 的普遍盈利增长预期与 2021 年第三季度 40% 的经营利润增长一致。此外，30% 的销售增长预期略高于 2021 年第三季度 29% 的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.<blockquote>鉴于经营利润在 2021 年第三季度迅速放缓至 40%，而今年前 9 个月为 266%，预计 2022 年 39% 的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使 2022 年的盈利增长远低于 39%。</blockquote>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.<blockquote>鉴于 Palantir 对购买 Palantir 软件的投资者采取了积极的投资策略，2022 年 30% 的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样倾向于对被投资方的销售额打折。排除这些销售，2022 年收入增长轨迹似乎将接近 20%，而不是 30%，这为进一步令人失望的增长打开了大门。</blockquote>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.<blockquote>从 2023 年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与 2022 年非常相似。这一到 2023 年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022 年和 2023 年的增长将远低于预期。</blockquote>Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.<blockquote>Palantir 2021 年的交易价格是市场普遍预期的 87 倍，2022 年的 62 倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）收益估计。根据 GAAP，Palantir 继续亏损生产。2021 年第三季度报告的亏损为 9200 万美元，2021 年前 9 个月亏损为 3.52 亿美元。</blockquote>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.<blockquote>使用非 GAAP 盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87 倍本年度盈利和 62 倍未来盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们属于近年来成长型股票的可能性范围。与 Palantir 迅速放缓的销售额和经营利润增长率，以及一致估计可能过高的风险相比，目前一致估计的估值倍数几乎没有误差。</blockquote>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.<blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir 的估值是 2021 年收入普遍预期的 17 倍，2022 年收入普遍预期的 13 倍。从历史角度来看，对于一家大型公司来说，这些都是极端的市销率倍数。我估计核心销售额增长趋势为 20%（不包括被投资方收入），这表明这些销售额估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.<blockquote>加上经营利润增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步升高。此外，从我的调整后毛利率数据中可以看出，截至 2021 年第三季度增长了 25%，Palantir 商业模式可能不支持历史极端的市销率估值。</blockquote>Technicals<blockquote>技术</blockquote>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.<blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力较小，但技术设置表明上行回报潜力更有意义。下面的 3 年周线图鸟瞰了潜在的技术回报范围。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出显示了主要支撑位。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)<blockquote>Palantir 3年周线图。（由 Brian Kapp 使用 Barchart.com 的图表创建）</blockquote>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.<blockquote>最近阻力位 19 美元和 22 美元的回报潜力分别为 43% 和 65%。不利的一面是，最近的支撑位位于 10 美元附近的 IPO 价格范围。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16 个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于 IPO 价格的交易历史，如果跌破 10 美元水平，目前尚不清楚在哪里会找到支撑。</blockquote>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.<blockquote>为了估计下行潜力低于 10 美元，我应用了 2022 年非 GAAP 共识收益预期的 40 倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir 股价将达到 8 美元。这代表了当前水平的-40%的下行风险。</blockquote>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.<blockquote>如果 2022 年 39% 的普遍盈利预期过高，那么 8 美元的进一步下跌是有可能的。为了估算估算过高时的潜在下行风险，我将同样的 40 倍非美国通用会计准则收益应用于我对 Palantir 目前全额征税、非美国通用会计准则盈利能力的年度运行率的估算。如果 2022 年盈利增长率达到 25%（我对截至 2021 年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前税后调整后盈利年运行率的估计为 0.12 美元，那么股价可能会跌至 6 美元。这将意味着-55%的下行风险。</blockquote>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.<blockquote>下面的日线图提供了对技术背景的更深入了解。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.<blockquote>技术图显示 19 美元至 22 美元之间存在巨大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下降趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行技术潜力与下行基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有 65% 至 -55% 的平衡潜在回报率。</blockquote>Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.<blockquote>总而言之，Palantir 应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期机遇在于成为能够整合结构化和非结构化数据进行实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，随着明显的危险信号出现，谨慎是必要的。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速放缓以及估值升高，从而提供了有限的误差空间。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致了中性评级。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机会？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机会？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-02-05 11:51\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>截至 2021 年第三季度，Palantir 总共只有 203 家客户，而其中只有 20 家客户占总收入的 58%。</li><li>与 2020 年相比，2021 年前三个季度，Palantir 核心客户群的收入年增长率放缓至 20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其进入市场的战略。该公司现在正利用现金积极投资其他同意购买 Palantir 软件的公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售增长 30%。然而，Palantir 的三阶段商业模式表明，不包括被投资方的销售额，销售额将呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir 提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该将其列入所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul>agawa288/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.<blockquote>我给予 Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) 中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期机遇在于成为能够整合结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速放缓以及估值升高，从而提供了有限的误差空间。</blockquote>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral<blockquote>风险/回报评级：中性</blockquote>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.<blockquote>与企业软件行业的同行相比，Palantir 在如何获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：（1）收购，（2）扩张，以及（3）规模化。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的案例中是独一无二的。</blockquote>Customer Detail<blockquote>客户详情</blockquote>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.<blockquote>Palantir 将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底产生的收入低于 100,000 美元，但对 Palantir 来说无利可图的客户。扩展队列的特点是客户创造了超过100,000美元的销售额，但仍然没有盈利。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元的收入，同时是盈利关系的客户。</blockquote>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.<blockquote>下表编制自 Palantir 向美国证券交易委员会提交的 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告。第一个表格显示了 Palantir 2020 年每个客户群体的销售额，这些客户群体在 2020 年底进行了分类（2020 年收入）。在2021年年化列中，您可以找到截至2021年第三季度的2020年客户群体的销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去 12 个月中 Palantir 最大客户的关键细节，以及 2021 年新加入 Palantir 但尚未被分配到队列中的客户的关键细节。队列分类发生在每年年底。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.<blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir 的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.<blockquote>根据定义，Palantir 最大的客户属于规模群体。在2021年前三个季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）正以20%的年化增长率增长。鉴于这一群体占 Palantir 收入的 86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，要将销售增长率大幅提高到 20% 以上将是一项挑战。应该指出的是，管理层的目标是到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.<blockquote>2020年年终收购和扩展队列在上表中以黄色突出显示。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资的客户获取策略极为不寻常，并承担极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，进而引入品牌风险。</blockquote>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.<blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指 Palantir 使用 Palantir 的软件购买被投资方股票作为回报的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是 Palantir 投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些都不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.<blockquote>与2021年规模队列年增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售年增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张队列的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir 的基本销售增长率似乎将接近 20%，而不是该公司到十年中期 30% 的销售增长指导。</blockquote>Investees<blockquote>投资</blockquote>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.<blockquote>重要的是要退后一步，重新审视 Palantir 对被投资方的投资，因为这是一种非常不寻常的客户获取市场策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为 20%，这为 Palantir 利用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金提供了新的视角。下表编制自 Palantir 2021 年第三季度 10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了 Palantir 对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.<blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的审查。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的增长领域的早期公司。这些领域包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。所有被投资方似乎都没有提供足够的升值潜力来大幅推动 Palantir 的估值。Palantir 的持股比例从 0.4% 到 1.6% 不等。</blockquote>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.<blockquote>目前还不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于 Palantir 的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司到 2021 年第三季度的 1900 万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.<blockquote>我在 blue Palantir 对这七家公司的总投资为 1.5 亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir 目前仅这七家公司就亏损了约 6400 万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司投资，但是，Palantir 没有透露细节。截至 2021 年第三季度，它们被计入 Palantir 资产负债表上的其他资产，总额为 1.16 亿美元。</blockquote>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.<blockquote>下表显示了 Palantir 截至 2021 年第三季度对新公司的投资承诺。我用黄色突出显示了 Palantir 在 2021 年第三季度末资助的两家公司。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.<blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至 2021 年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是第三季度末之前完成的 1.5 亿美元之外的 2.52 亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。也就是说，与 Palantir 软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，它们似乎承担了极大的资本风险，上涨潜力可能微乎其微。应该指出的是，最近的估值是极端的，并继续快速收缩。因此，在风险投资/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也增加了资本损失的时机风险。</blockquote>Financial Performance<blockquote>财务表现</blockquote>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.<blockquote>谈到 Palantir 最近的业绩，我选择将销售增长排除在被投资方之外，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表编制自 Palantir 向美国证券交易委员会提交的 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告。我进行了调整，删除了被投资方的收入，得出了净收入数字。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.<blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后 2021 年第三季度 29% 的收入增长。第三季度被投资企业增长了 6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29% 的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期 30% 的增长率。请记住，随着 Palantir 投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入来源将会增加。无论如何，第三季度的增长率正在迅速放缓，为 29%，而年初至今为 41%，不包括这些非公平销售。</blockquote>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales<blockquote>地理和分部销售</blockquote>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.<blockquote>销售放缓的主要原因是法国，2021 年前三个季度销量萎缩了 22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但增长正在迅速放缓，下面的蓝色突出显示的单元格就证明了这一点。该表是根据 Palantir 向美国证券交易委员会提交的 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告编制的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.<blockquote>除了法国，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前九个月的 45% 下降到 2021 年第三季度的 20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是从同一份 SEC 文件中编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方的收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度的增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.<blockquote>总之，商业分部的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约 29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速放缓，从 2021 年前 9 个月的 57% 下降到第三季度的 34%。</blockquote>Gross Profit &amp; KPI<blockquote>毛利及关键绩效指标</blockquote>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:<blockquote>Palantir 不同寻常的客户获取策略早于向被投资方的转变。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与为其他公司销售商品的成本非常相似。这是因为 Palantir 为潜在客户提供免费试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售额。以下摘自 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 的报价总结了情况：</blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.<blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、基于股票的薪酬费用以及参与执行试点和客户增长活动的销售人员和人员的福利……因此，我认为 Palantir 的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本并减少到毛利率。虽然这种分类不会影响利润，但它确实有助于将报告的 78% 毛利率置于上下文中。</blockquote>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.<blockquote>我认为，这种关于销售和营销费用的观点有助于思考 Palantir 相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖于毛利率的相对估值。下表根据 Palantir 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告编制而成，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关的基于股票的薪酬费用进行调整后的收入、销售和营销费用报告成本。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.<blockquote>请注意，第三季度调整后毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（表格下部蓝色突出显示），而2021年前9个月为59%（黄色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本正在迅速上升。</blockquote>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.<blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，这被称为贡献边际。这与我上面的调整后毛利率数字相似，从下表可以看出，该表格是根据 Palantir 2021 年第三季度 10-Q 报告编制的。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.<blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中我调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的单元格中可以看到的。虽然 37% 与我估计的 25% 增长有很大不同，但低于 64% 的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote>Operating Income<blockquote>经营利润</blockquote>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.<blockquote>谈到经营利润，我再次调整了报告的数字，删除了与股票期权相关的费用以及与 2020 年直接上市 IPO 相关的一次性费用。压倒一切的信息再次是快速减速。下表是从同一份SEC文件中编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的经营利润估计。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>资料来源：由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.<blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后经营利润的增长率令人难以置信地放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的增长率为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速加速，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长5%。</blockquote>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.<blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应通过三个客户阶段跟踪销售周期：获取、扩张和扩大。由于销售和营销部门确定了客户需求，因此研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这种情况似乎没有发生。</blockquote>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.<blockquote>截至 2021 年第三季度，Palantir 的年化调整后经营利润运行率约为 300 万至 3.2 亿美元，即约每股 0.16 美元。这是税前经营利润数字。经营利润方面的主要收获是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote>Consensus Growth Estimates<blockquote>共识增长估计</blockquote>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.<blockquote>如果 Palantir 的调整后年经营利润运行税率为 3.2 亿美元，并且按 25% 的标准化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在 2.4 亿美元范围内，即每股稀释后 0.12 美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长放缓，我们可以开始将共识的盈利预测放在背景中。下表由 Seeking Alpha 编制，显示了到 2023 年的共识盈利和收入预期。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox<blockquote>来源：寻求阿尔法。由 Brian Kapp、stoxdox 创建</blockquote>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.<blockquote>我强调了 2022 年盈利和销售增长的共识预期。请注意，2022 年 39% 的普遍盈利增长预期与 2021 年第三季度 40% 的经营利润增长一致。此外，30% 的销售增长预期略高于 2021 年第三季度 29% 的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.<blockquote>鉴于经营利润在 2021 年第三季度迅速放缓至 40%，而今年前 9 个月为 266%，预计 2022 年 39% 的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使 2022 年的盈利增长远低于 39%。</blockquote>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.<blockquote>鉴于 Palantir 对购买 Palantir 软件的投资者采取了积极的投资策略，2022 年 30% 的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样倾向于对被投资方的销售额打折。排除这些销售，2022 年收入增长轨迹似乎将接近 20%，而不是 30%，这为进一步令人失望的增长打开了大门。</blockquote>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.<blockquote>从 2023 年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与 2022 年非常相似。这一到 2023 年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022 年和 2023 年的增长将远低于预期。</blockquote>Valuation<blockquote>估值</blockquote>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.<blockquote>Palantir 2021 年的交易价格是市场普遍预期的 87 倍，2022 年的 62 倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）收益估计。根据 GAAP，Palantir 继续亏损生产。2021 年第三季度报告的亏损为 9200 万美元，2021 年前 9 个月亏损为 3.52 亿美元。</blockquote>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.<blockquote>使用非 GAAP 盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87 倍本年度盈利和 62 倍未来盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们属于近年来成长型股票的可能性范围。与 Palantir 迅速放缓的销售额和经营利润增长率，以及一致估计可能过高的风险相比，目前一致估计的估值倍数几乎没有误差。</blockquote>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.<blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir 的估值是 2021 年收入普遍预期的 17 倍，2022 年收入普遍预期的 13 倍。从历史角度来看，对于一家大型公司来说，这些都是极端的市销率倍数。我估计核心销售额增长趋势为 20%（不包括被投资方收入），这表明这些销售额估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.<blockquote>加上经营利润增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步升高。此外，从我的调整后毛利率数据中可以看出，截至 2021 年第三季度增长了 25%，Palantir 商业模式可能不支持历史极端的市销率估值。</blockquote>Technicals<blockquote>技术</blockquote>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.<blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力较小，但技术设置表明上行回报潜力更有意义。下面的 3 年周线图鸟瞰了潜在的技术回报范围。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出显示了主要支撑位。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)<blockquote>Palantir 3年周线图。（由 Brian Kapp 使用 Barchart.com 的图表创建）</blockquote>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.<blockquote>最近阻力位 19 美元和 22 美元的回报潜力分别为 43% 和 65%。不利的一面是，最近的支撑位位于 10 美元附近的 IPO 价格范围。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16 个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于 IPO 价格的交易历史，如果跌破 10 美元水平，目前尚不清楚在哪里会找到支撑。</blockquote>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.<blockquote>为了估计下行潜力低于 10 美元，我应用了 2022 年非 GAAP 共识收益预期的 40 倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir 股价将达到 8 美元。这代表了当前水平的-40%的下行风险。</blockquote>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.<blockquote>如果 2022 年 39% 的普遍盈利预期过高，那么 8 美元的进一步下跌是有可能的。为了估算估算过高时的潜在下行风险，我将同样的 40 倍非美国通用会计准则收益应用于我对 Palantir 目前全额征税、非美国通用会计准则盈利能力的年度运行率的估算。如果 2022 年盈利增长率达到 25%（我对截至 2021 年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前税后调整后盈利年运行率的估计为 0.12 美元，那么股价可能会跌至 6 美元。这将意味着-55%的下行风险。</blockquote>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.<blockquote>下面的日线图提供了对技术背景的更深入了解。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.<blockquote>技术图显示 19 美元至 22 美元之间存在巨大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下降趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行技术潜力与下行基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有 65% 至 -55% 的平衡潜在回报率。</blockquote>Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.<blockquote>总而言之，Palantir 应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期机遇在于成为能够整合结构化和非结构化数据进行实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，随着明显的危险信号出现，谨慎是必要的。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速放缓以及估值升高，从而提供了有限的误差空间。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致了中性评级。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/633675745"}