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2022-02-06

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How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短 5 年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":633215662,"tweetId":"633215662","gmtCreate":1644120855667,"gmtModify":1644120855859,"author":{"id":3561443675471397,"idStr":"3561443675471397","authorId":3561443675471397,"authorIdStr":"3561443675471397","name":"wisley","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Drop</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Drop</body></html>","text":"Drop","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633215662","repostId":1167513065,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167513065","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644109830,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1167513065?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-06 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短 5 年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167513065","media":"Barrons","summary":"Teslacould be bigger than bothGeneral MotorsandFord Motorcombined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonasis thinking.It’s a provocative idea for ","content":"<html><head></head><body>Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果一切按照摩根士丹利分析师 Adam Jonas 的想法发展，特斯拉的销售额可能会在短短五年内超过通用汽车和福特汽车公司的总和。</body></html></blockquote>It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.<blockquote>这是一个值得投资者思考的挑衅性想法，也有点令人震惊。</blockquote>Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.<blockquote>两家拥有数千亿美元销售额的百年老汽车制造商被一家成立不到 20 年的初创公司所掩盖，这似乎并不可信。真的不应该。市场已经宣布电动汽车转型取得胜利。尽管如此，这种市场份额转移和增长背后的数学原理仍有待观察。</blockquote>“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.<blockquote>“乔纳斯在周四发表的一份报告中写道：”我们采访的大多数汽车投资者仍在纠结特斯拉可能比通用汽车或福特更大的想法。</blockquote>But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.<blockquote>但乔纳斯一点也不觉得这个想法难以理解。事实上，他相信到 2027 年，特斯拉的销量将超过通用汽车加福特的销量。</blockquote>There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.<blockquote>他的思想实验有一个问题。从 “运行率 ”来看，特斯拉将大于两者--基本上是对最新数据进行年度化处理。例如，特斯拉在 2021 年第四季度售出了约 309,000 辆汽车。根据乔纳斯的数学计算，这家电动汽车先驱的汽车产量约为 124 万辆。</blockquote>Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉第四季度销售额约为 250 亿美元，运行率销售额约为 1000 亿美元。通用汽车的营业额为 335 亿美元，年营业额约为 1340 亿美元。福特的销售额为 377 亿美元，年销售额约为 1510 亿美元。</blockquote>For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.<blockquote>Jonas 计算出，1 月份特斯拉的销售额占美国销售额的 4%，他估计该公司在销售额中的份额约为 3.5%。特斯拉的汽车比普通汽车贵。</blockquote>By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.<blockquote>Jonas 预计到 2026 年底，特斯拉将占据美国市场 10% 的份额。他预计通用汽车和福特的份额分别约为 14% 和 11%。届时特斯拉的平均售价仍将较高。</blockquote>Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.<blockquote>综合来看，Jonas projects 预计到 2026 年底，特斯拉的销售额将达到约 3000 亿美元。通用汽车和福特的市值仍应保持在 1500 亿美元左右。</blockquote>For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.<blockquote>对于乔纳斯的客户来说，他最好是对的。特斯拉的定价已经表明它将赢得市场份额。它的销量可能仍然落后于通用汽车和福特，特斯拉在一个关键指标上让所有其他汽车制造商相形见绌：市值。</blockquote>Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值约为 9000 亿美元，约为通用汽车和福特市值总和的六倍。</blockquote>With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.<blockquote>有了这样的差距，特斯拉将需要在2027年及以后继续增长。乔纳斯肯定看到了这种情况。到本十年末，他的特斯拉 “钱包份额”（本质上是单位份额乘以平均定价）将达到美国市场的 23%。</blockquote>On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.<blockquote>周五，特斯拉股价上涨 3.6%，收于 923.32 美元。标普500上涨0.5%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.1%。</blockquote>Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.<blockquote>现在，华尔街非常想知道乔纳斯可能在想什么。如果他是对的，他的客户不仅会高兴。他们会笑到最后。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短 5 年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短 5 年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2022-02-06 09:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果一切按照摩根士丹利分析师 Adam Jonas 的想法发展，特斯拉的销售额可能会在短短五年内超过通用汽车和福特汽车公司的总和。</body></html></blockquote>It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.<blockquote>这是一个值得投资者思考的挑衅性想法，也有点令人震惊。</blockquote>Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.<blockquote>两家拥有数千亿美元销售额的百年老汽车制造商被一家成立不到 20 年的初创公司所掩盖，这似乎并不可信。真的不应该。市场已经宣布电动汽车转型取得胜利。尽管如此，这种市场份额转移和增长背后的数学原理仍有待观察。</blockquote>“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.<blockquote>“乔纳斯在周四发表的一份报告中写道：”我们采访的大多数汽车投资者仍在纠结特斯拉可能比通用汽车或福特更大的想法。</blockquote>But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.<blockquote>但乔纳斯一点也不觉得这个想法难以理解。事实上，他相信到 2027 年，特斯拉的销量将超过通用汽车加福特的销量。</blockquote>There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.<blockquote>他的思想实验有一个问题。从 “运行率 ”来看，特斯拉将大于两者--基本上是对最新数据进行年度化处理。例如，特斯拉在 2021 年第四季度售出了约 309,000 辆汽车。根据乔纳斯的数学计算，这家电动汽车先驱的汽车产量约为 124 万辆。</blockquote>Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉第四季度销售额约为 250 亿美元，运行率销售额约为 1000 亿美元。通用汽车的营业额为 335 亿美元，年营业额约为 1340 亿美元。福特的销售额为 377 亿美元，年销售额约为 1510 亿美元。</blockquote>For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.<blockquote>Jonas 计算出，1 月份特斯拉的销售额占美国销售额的 4%，他估计该公司在销售额中的份额约为 3.5%。特斯拉的汽车比普通汽车贵。</blockquote>By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.<blockquote>Jonas 预计到 2026 年底，特斯拉将占据美国市场 10% 的份额。他预计通用汽车和福特的份额分别约为 14% 和 11%。届时特斯拉的平均售价仍将较高。</blockquote>Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.<blockquote>综合来看，Jonas projects 预计到 2026 年底，特斯拉的销售额将达到约 3000 亿美元。通用汽车和福特的市值仍应保持在 1500 亿美元左右。</blockquote>For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.<blockquote>对于乔纳斯的客户来说，他最好是对的。特斯拉的定价已经表明它将赢得市场份额。它的销量可能仍然落后于通用汽车和福特，特斯拉在一个关键指标上让所有其他汽车制造商相形见绌：市值。</blockquote>Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值约为 9000 亿美元，约为通用汽车和福特市值总和的六倍。</blockquote>With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.<blockquote>有了这样的差距，特斯拉将需要在2027年及以后继续增长。乔纳斯肯定看到了这种情况。到本十年末，他的特斯拉 “钱包份额”（本质上是单位份额乘以平均定价）将达到美国市场的 23%。</blockquote>On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.<blockquote>周五，特斯拉股价上涨 3.6%，收于 923.32 美元。标普500上涨0.5%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.1%。</blockquote>Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.<blockquote>现在，华尔街非常想知道乔纳斯可能在想什么。如果他是对的，他的客户不仅会高兴。他们会笑到最后。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bigger-than-ford-gm-5-years-51643992236\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bigger-than-ford-gm-5-years-51643992236","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167513065","content_text":"Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3925,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/633215662"}