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2022-02-14

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Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says Potential Ukraine War a ‘Polar Vortex’ Risk to Stocks<blockquote>摩根士丹利的威尔逊表示，潜在的乌克兰战争对股市构成“极地漩涡”风险</blockquote>

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A spike in energy prices “would destroy demand, in our view, and perhaps tip several economies into an outright recession,” the strategist and his team said, adding that energy stocks are most at risk of a selloff.<blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在给客户的一份报告中写道，战争“大大增加了经济和盈利出现极地漩涡的可能性”。这位策略师和他的团队表示，能源价格飙升“在我们看来，将破坏需求，并可能使几个经济体陷入彻底衰退”，并补充说，能源股面临抛售的风险最大。</blockquote>Crude oil prices rose, and natural gas surged in European markets on Monday, amid warnings from the U.S. government that Russia could mount an invasion as soon as this week.<blockquote>周一，欧洲市场原油价格上涨，天然气价格飙升，美国政府警告称，俄罗斯最早可能在本周发动入侵。</blockquote>The standoff pushed Asian and European stocks lower, exacerbating this year’s rout triggered by fears that central banks will raise interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated to tame surging inflation. Russian officials have repeatedly denied plans to attack Ukraine.<blockquote>这场僵局推动亚洲和欧洲股市走低，加剧了今年因担心各国央行将比此前预期更激进地加息以抑制飙升的通胀而引发的暴跌。俄罗斯官员多次否认计划袭击乌克兰。</blockquote>Wilson, who has persistently warned that U.S. equity markets are heading for a correction and has the lowest year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 index out of all strategists surveyed by Bloomberg, said Monday that investors will soon shift their focus from inflation to economic growth. In fact, a sharply decelerating economy may mean that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates as many times as markets currently expect, he said.<blockquote>Wilson一直警告美国股市正在走向回调，在彭博调查的所有策略师中，Wilson对标普500指数的年终目标是最低的，他周一表示，投资者将很快将注意力从通胀转向经济增长。他表示，事实上，经济急剧减速可能意味着美联储不会像市场目前预期的那样多次加息。</blockquote>“This is why we still favor a more defensive, rather than growth, bias within the quality bucket where we believe earnings achievability is less vulnerable to that growth disappointment,” Wilson said. The stock market’s correction remains incomplete, he said.<blockquote>威尔逊表示：“这就是为什么我们仍然倾向于在质量方面更具防御性，而不是增长性，我们认为盈利可实现性不太容易受到增长失望的影响。”他表示，股市的调整仍未完成。</blockquote>To be sure, not everyone shares Wilson’s gloom. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists cut their year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 index, but they still see an upside or around 11% from current levels for U.S. equities.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，并不是每个人都和威尔逊一样悲观。高盛集团策略师下调了标普500指数的年终目标，但他们仍认为美国股市有上涨空间，较当前水平上涨约11%。</blockquote>“Despite recent volatility, it’s important to remember that we are still in an environment of robust economic and earnings growth, and in our base case we expect upside for equity markets over the balance of the year,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management said Monday. “Our base case is that inflation will fall and geopolitical tensions will ease over the coming months, allowing markets to move higher.”<blockquote>瑞银首席投资官马克·海菲尔(Mark Haefele)表示：“尽管最近出现波动，但重要的是要记住，我们仍处于经济和盈利强劲增长的环境中，在我们的基本情况下，我们预计今年剩余时间股市将上涨。”全球财富管理周一表示。“我们的基本情况是，未来几个月通胀将下降，地缘政治紧张局势将缓解，从而使市场走高。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says Potential Ukraine War a ‘Polar Vortex’ Risk to Stocks<blockquote>摩根士丹利的威尔逊表示，潜在的乌克兰战争对股市构成“极地漩涡”风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley’s Wilson Says Potential Ukraine War a ‘Polar Vortex’ Risk to Stocks<blockquote>摩根士丹利的威尔逊表示，潜在的乌克兰战争对股市构成“极地漩涡”风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2022-02-14 17:52\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>(Bloomberg) -- A potential Russian invasion of Ukraine could push economies into recession, posing another significant risk for equity markets, according to one of Wall Street’s most vocal bears.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>（彭博社）——华尔街最直言不讳的看空者之一表示，俄罗斯可能入侵乌克兰可能会将经济推入衰退，给股市带来另一个重大风险。</body></html></blockquote>A war “materially increases the odds of a polar vortex for the economy and earnings,” Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients. A spike in energy prices “would destroy demand, in our view, and perhaps tip several economies into an outright recession,” the strategist and his team said, adding that energy stocks are most at risk of a selloff.<blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克尔·威尔逊在给客户的一份报告中写道，战争“大大增加了经济和盈利出现极地漩涡的可能性”。这位策略师和他的团队表示，能源价格飙升“在我们看来，将破坏需求，并可能使几个经济体陷入彻底衰退”，并补充说，能源股面临抛售的风险最大。</blockquote>Crude oil prices rose, and natural gas surged in European markets on Monday, amid warnings from the U.S. government that Russia could mount an invasion as soon as this week.<blockquote>周一，欧洲市场原油价格上涨，天然气价格飙升，美国政府警告称，俄罗斯最早可能在本周发动入侵。</blockquote>The standoff pushed Asian and European stocks lower, exacerbating this year’s rout triggered by fears that central banks will raise interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated to tame surging inflation. Russian officials have repeatedly denied plans to attack Ukraine.<blockquote>这场僵局推动亚洲和欧洲股市走低，加剧了今年因担心各国央行将比此前预期更激进地加息以抑制飙升的通胀而引发的暴跌。俄罗斯官员多次否认计划袭击乌克兰。</blockquote>Wilson, who has persistently warned that U.S. equity markets are heading for a correction and has the lowest year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 index out of all strategists surveyed by Bloomberg, said Monday that investors will soon shift their focus from inflation to economic growth. In fact, a sharply decelerating economy may mean that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates as many times as markets currently expect, he said.<blockquote>Wilson一直警告美国股市正在走向回调，在彭博调查的所有策略师中，Wilson对标普500指数的年终目标是最低的，他周一表示，投资者将很快将注意力从通胀转向经济增长。他表示，事实上，经济急剧减速可能意味着美联储不会像市场目前预期的那样多次加息。</blockquote>“This is why we still favor a more defensive, rather than growth, bias within the quality bucket where we believe earnings achievability is less vulnerable to that growth disappointment,” Wilson said. The stock market’s correction remains incomplete, he said.<blockquote>威尔逊表示：“这就是为什么我们仍然倾向于在质量方面更具防御性，而不是增长性，我们认为盈利可实现性不太容易受到增长失望的影响。”他表示，股市的调整仍未完成。</blockquote>To be sure, not everyone shares Wilson’s gloom. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists cut their year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 index, but they still see an upside or around 11% from current levels for U.S. equities.<blockquote>可以肯定的是，并不是每个人都和威尔逊一样悲观。高盛集团策略师下调了标普500指数的年终目标，但他们仍认为美国股市有上涨空间，较当前水平上涨约11%。</blockquote>“Despite recent volatility, it’s important to remember that we are still in an environment of robust economic and earnings growth, and in our base case we expect upside for equity markets over the balance of the year,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management said Monday. “Our base case is that inflation will fall and geopolitical tensions will ease over the coming months, allowing markets to move higher.”<blockquote>瑞银首席投资官马克·海菲尔(Mark Haefele)表示：“尽管最近出现波动，但重要的是要记住，我们仍处于经济和盈利强劲增长的环境中，在我们的基本情况下，我们预计今年剩余时间股市将上涨。”全球财富管理周一表示。“我们的基本情况是，未来几个月通胀将下降，地缘政治紧张局势将缓解，从而使市场走高。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-says-potential-090843659.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-says-potential-090843659.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152500032","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- A potential Russian invasion of Ukraine could push economies into recession, posing another significant risk for equity markets, according to one of Wall Street’s most vocal bears.A war “materially increases the odds of a polar vortex for the economy and earnings,” Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a note to clients. A spike in energy prices “would destroy demand, in our view, and perhaps tip several economies into an outright recession,” the strategist and his team said, adding that energy stocks are most at risk of a selloff.Crude oil prices rose, and natural gas surged in European markets on Monday, amid warnings from the U.S. government that Russia could mount an invasion as soon as this week.The standoff pushed Asian and European stocks lower, exacerbating this year’s rout triggered by fears that central banks will raise interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated to tame surging inflation. Russian officials have repeatedly denied plans to attack Ukraine.Wilson, who has persistently warned that U.S. equity markets are heading for a correction and has the lowest year-end target for the S&P 500 index out of all strategists surveyed by Bloomberg, said Monday that investors will soon shift their focus from inflation to economic growth. In fact, a sharply decelerating economy may mean that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates as many times as markets currently expect, he said.“This is why we still favor a more defensive, rather than growth, bias within the quality bucket where we believe earnings achievability is less vulnerable to that growth disappointment,” Wilson said. The stock market’s correction remains incomplete, he said.To be sure, not everyone shares Wilson’s gloom. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists cut their year-end target for the S&P 500 index, but they still see an upside or around 11% from current levels for U.S. equities.“Despite recent volatility, it’s important to remember that we are still in an environment of robust economic and earnings growth, and in our base case we expect upside for equity markets over the balance of the year,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management said Monday. “Our base case is that inflation will fall and geopolitical tensions will ease over the coming months, allowing markets to move higher.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1752,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/631550279"}