龙腾虎乐
11-07
这些年关系本来就不大,只是在情绪上与大环境上略有一些影响罢了
A股与美股联动性正在下降吗?从纳指暴跌5.52%次日A股表现说起
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ETF","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TQQY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST QQQ ETF","LU2778985437.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"A\" (USD) INC","BK0231":"软件信息","SG9999001051.SGD":"United Asia Fund SGD"},"source_url":"http://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261107/c681577882.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2681814391","content_text":"美东时间11月5日,纳斯达克综合指数(IXIC)单日下跌5.52%,费城半导体(SOX)指数收跌逾12%,英伟达(NVDA)跌9.26%,AMD跌17.3%,美光、西部数据(WDC)跌17%。次日开盘,A股主要指数集体下挫,但华虹宏力(HK1347)等国产半导体(881121)企业逆势走强,部分龙头大幅低开后快速反弹。同一天午间,中际旭创(HK3308)、新易盛(300502)、天孚通信(300394)、东山精密(HK2384)、立讯精密(HK2475)、三环集团(HK6951)等10余家科技龙头集中披露回购及经营情况公告。两组画面放在一起,引出一个需要小心回答的问题:A股与美股的短期联动性是否正在出现结构性变化?更准确地说,部分板块的定价锚是否正从海外情绪转向本土产业基本面?把单日行情直接翻译成“脱钩”是草率的,但忽略企业侧行为和产业数据的变化,同样会错过正在发生的边际信号。先看企业侧行为的密度。Wind数据显示,11月2日至6日,A股共有99家上市公司新增回购增持计划,涉及金额156.5亿元,同比增长361.44%。其中66家公司拟回购金额上限合计123.93亿元,33家公司披露增持计划拟增持32.56亿元。电子、通信行业拟回购增持金额合计近90亿元,占比近六成。更早的10月15日以来,沪市124家公司新增回购增持计划金额上限超233亿元;深市11月以来回购计划27单金额上限68.86亿元、增持计划14单金额上限25.19亿元。这里必须做一次口径辨析。拟回购金额上限是计划数,不等于实际执行数;已实施金额是另一套数据;贷款签约额度则是银行与公司之间的融资安排,三者不能混用。11月4日央行将股票回购增持再贷款利率下调0.25个百分点至1%,1%是央行向银行提供再贷款的资金价格,并非上市公司最终拿到的贷款利率,银行加点后终端成本会更高。政策降低了回购的融资门槛,但计划金额向实际实施金额的转化率,才是检验企业侧信号成色的关键变量。企业行为之外,产业基本面的锚更值得逐项核对。前三季度电子行业营业收入同比增长41%,归母净利润同比增速超过180%,92家公司净利润倍增、41家扭亏。寒武纪(688256)营收增106.76%、归母净利增131.49%;海光信息(688041)营收149.55亿元增57.58%、归母净利28.47亿元增45.12%。中微公司(688012)新签订单历史新高、订单增速超收入增速;盛美上海(688082)在手订单170.73亿元同比增88.2%。DeepSeek、智谱(HK2513)等大模型与寒武纪(688256)、沐曦股份(688802)完成Day0适配,协同周期(883436)由数月压缩至以天计。这组数据构成了一条可追踪的影响机制链:外部冲击触发情绪抛售,国产算力订单和盈利数据提供本土定价参照,回购增持在估值低位形成承接,三者叠加使部分板块对海外情绪的敏感度出现边际下降。但这条链条有明确短板。天风证券(601162)提示,先进制程良率爬坡、高带宽存储依赖海外等约束仍在,国产协同并非全链条自主,订单增速与收入确认之间也存在时间差。联动性下降的边界在哪里?申万宏源(000166)王胜认为,7月以来调整是内部交易结构调整与外部宏观扰动共同作用,带明显阶段性特征,当前更适合定义为大波段上涨中间的震荡休整。长江证券(000783)戴清指出,A股独立行情核心在于经济基本面、产业竞争力与企业盈利周期(883436)形成自身定价逻辑,需稳增长政策显效与内需修复扩散配合。中泰证券(600918)张德礼则提示,海外AI监管预期升温与地缘风险使海外波动加大,国内政策发力与稳市机制健全提供支撑。把三者放在一起,条件清单就清楚了:稳增长政策落地能否带动内需修复扩散,国产算力订单能否持续转化为收入,回购计划能否从“拟”走向“已实施”,以及美股科技波动对A股情绪的外溢是否连续多个交易日递减。市场更多交易的是政策预期而非已兑现的基本面改善,稳市工具切断的是流动性负反馈,并不直接决定指数方向。单日逆势表现只是样本点,不是趋势线。后续观察变量可以列得更具体:回购增持计划金额向实际实施金额的转化率;国产算力芯片出货与订单兑现节奏,IDC 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