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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":624016290698632,"tweetId":"624016290698632","gmtCreate":1793362896063,"gmtModify":1793362898028,"author":{"id":3519508048768513,"idStr":"3519508048768513","authorId":3519508048768513,"authorIdStr":"3519508048768513","name":"小脑虎头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0575a1d0dc8b7c8e58ed181afe9e4c88","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>全天下苦美国久已</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>全天下苦美国久已</p></body></html>","text":"全天下苦美国久已","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624016290698632","repostId":2679935218,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2679935218","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1793358360,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2679935218?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-30 19:06","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"ATFX早评:黄金再失守4000关口 美国PCE数据是诱因","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2679935218","media":"市场资讯","summary":"专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿10月30日，ATFX早评：昨日收盘，伦敦金下跌1.13%，最低触及4005.38美元；今日延续跌势，东京时段，盘中最低触及3996.63美元，跌破4000美元重要关口。纽约期货黄金隔夜下跌0.45%，最低触及4016美元，今日盘中最低下跌至4006.4美元，仍坚守4000美元关口。图2，核心PCE数据-ATFX黄金下跌的主要诱因是美国的PCE数据。美国9月PCE物价指数年率为3.6%，高于前值3.4%，持平于预期值。图3，CME对美联储加息概率预测-ATFX黄金的走势高度以来美联储的加息预期。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿</p>\n<p>10月30日，ATFX早评：昨日收盘，伦敦金下跌1.13%，最低触及4005.38美元；今日延续跌势，东京时段，盘中最低触及3996.63美元，跌破4000美元重要关口。纽约期货黄金隔夜下跌0.45%，最低触及4016美元，今日盘中最低下跌至4006.4美元，仍坚守4000美元关口。</p>\n<div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/795/w550h245/20261030/050e-a7f569112301b9c08d681b357e0bf04a.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　图1，纽约期货黄金走势与期金现货金价差曲线（红色）-ATFX</p>\n<p>　　伴随着国际金价的下跌，纽约期货黄金相比伦敦现货黄金的价格优势正在逐渐丧失。如上图所示，2026年9月22日，期金相对伦敦金的价格优势尚有38美元左右。现如今，价格优势仅为9.8美元，未来甚至有可能持平，这在常态化的经济背景下是极少出现的。</p>\n<div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/732/w550h182/20261030/f957-225a0a35afa63c79f27b2d0304855f57.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　图2，核心PCE数据-ATFX</p>\n<p>　　黄金下跌的主要诱因是美国的PCE数据。根据美国商务部昨日发布的数，美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率为3.1%，高于前值3.0%，持平预期值。美国9月PCE物价指数年率为3.6%，高于前值3.4%，持平于预期值。核心和整体PCE年率相比前值均上升，意味着当前的利率水平不足以遏制通胀，未来美联储仍有必要进一步提高利率。</p>\n<p>　　美联储10月份利率决议结果，维持3.75%~4.00%利率不变，因为9月份美联储已经降息一次，10月处于反应观察期。美联储主席凯文沃什在新闻发布会上表示：美联储将毫无疑问的实现价格稳定，不存在软性通胀目标。此番讲话意味着凯文沃什仍将2%的通胀水平看作调控关键，12月加息概率显著升高。</p>\n<div><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/786/w550h236/20261030/1822-a120340d2abc6c2b2679143824d5c98b.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　图3，CME对美联储加息概率预测-ATFX</p>\n<p>　　黄金的走势高度以来美联储的加息预期。根据CME的预测，美联储12月份加息25基点的概率高达81.3%，相比9月份显著升高。美联储主席凯文沃什致力于压低通胀水平，而当前的高通胀主要有高国际油价高国内精炼油价格导致，持久性强，美联储短时间内不会改变加息路径。对于黄金来说，货币政策层面的利空消息将持续压制涨势，未来下跌风险仍较高。</p>\n<p>　　交易策略建议：</p>\n<p>　　1、黄金下跌趋势性较强，使用均线策略抓趋势起点</p>\n<p>　　2、震荡指标RSI判断超跌状态，一旦数值低于20，谨防技术性反弹。</p>\n<p>　　3、平均真实指标ATR作为加建仓和止盈止损的标准。对于任何周期，止损区间不宜大于2被ATR值。</p>\n<p>　　ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点，不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考依据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更新内容不会另行通知。</p>\n<div>\n<span>新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nATFX早评:黄金再失守4000关口 美国PCE数据是诱因\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-10-30 19:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexroll/videoroll/2026-10-30/doc-iniwzazv4655831.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿\n10月30日，ATFX早评：昨日收盘，伦敦金下跌1.13%，最低触及4005.38美元；今日延续跌势，东京时段，盘中最低触及3996.63美元，跌破4000美元重要关口。纽约期货黄金隔夜下跌0.45%，最低触及4016美元，今日盘中最低下跌至4006.4美元，仍坚守4000美元关口。\n\n　　图1，纽约期货黄金走势与期金现货金价差曲线（红色）-ATFX\n　　伴随着国际金价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexroll/videoroll/2026-10-30/doc-iniwzazv4655831.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","FGDL":"FRANKLIN RESPONSIBLY SOURCED GOLD ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDXY":"YieldMax Gold Miners Option Income Strategy ETF","DZZ":"德银黄金两倍做空ETN","GOAU":"U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF","IAUI":"NEOS Gold High Income ETF","PHYS":"Sprott Physical Gold Trust","AAAU":"Goldman Sachs Physical Gold 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ETN","JDST":"金矿指数二倍做空ETF","BEGS":"RAREVIEW 2X BULL CRYPTOCURRENCY & PRECIOUS METALS ETF","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","GDXJ":"小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)","FAAR":"First Trust Alternative Absolute Return Strategy ETF","GDXU":"MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexroll/videoroll/2026-10-30/doc-iniwzazv4655831.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2679935218","content_text":"专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿\n10月30日，ATFX早评：昨日收盘，伦敦金下跌1.13%，最低触及4005.38美元；今日延续跌势，东京时段，盘中最低触及3996.63美元，跌破4000美元重要关口。纽约期货黄金隔夜下跌0.45%，最低触及4016美元，今日盘中最低下跌至4006.4美元，仍坚守4000美元关口。\n\n　　图1，纽约期货黄金走势与期金现货金价差曲线（红色）-ATFX\n　　伴随着国际金价的下跌，纽约期货黄金相比伦敦现货黄金的价格优势正在逐渐丧失。如上图所示，2026年9月22日，期金相对伦敦金的价格优势尚有38美元左右。现如今，价格优势仅为9.8美元，未来甚至有可能持平，这在常态化的经济背景下是极少出现的。\n\n　　图2，核心PCE数据-ATFX\n　　黄金下跌的主要诱因是美国的PCE数据。根据美国商务部昨日发布的数，美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率为3.1%，高于前值3.0%，持平预期值。美国9月PCE物价指数年率为3.6%，高于前值3.4%，持平于预期值。核心和整体PCE年率相比前值均上升，意味着当前的利率水平不足以遏制通胀，未来美联储仍有必要进一步提高利率。\n　　美联储10月份利率决议结果，维持3.75%~4.00%利率不变，因为9月份美联储已经降息一次，10月处于反应观察期。美联储主席凯文沃什在新闻发布会上表示：美联储将毫无疑问的实现价格稳定，不存在软性通胀目标。此番讲话意味着凯文沃什仍将2%的通胀水平看作调控关键，12月加息概率显著升高。\n\n　　图3，CME对美联储加息概率预测-ATFX\n　　黄金的走势高度以来美联储的加息预期。根据CME的预测，美联储12月份加息25基点的概率高达81.3%，相比9月份显著升高。美联储主席凯文沃什致力于压低通胀水平，而当前的高通胀主要有高国际油价高国内精炼油价格导致，持久性强，美联储短时间内不会改变加息路径。对于黄金来说，货币政策层面的利空消息将持续压制涨势，未来下跌风险仍较高。\n　　交易策略建议：\n　　1、黄金下跌趋势性较强，使用均线策略抓趋势起点\n　　2、震荡指标RSI判断超跌状态，一旦数值低于20，谨防技术性反弹。\n　　3、平均真实指标ATR作为加建仓和止盈止损的标准。对于任何周期，止损区间不宜大于2被ATR值。\n　　ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点，不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考依据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更新内容不会另行通知。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 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