MHEDYT
10-28
大a都带飞了
马斯克预判：人形机器人DRAM需求 或超过地球上所有应用
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":623233857757264,"tweetId":"623233857757264","gmtCreate":1793196238714,"gmtModify":1793196240607,"author":{"id":4094036683038950,"idStr":"4094036683038950","authorId":4094036683038950,"authorIdStr":"4094036683038950","name":"MHEDYT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df817b8133b12262270fa7eae97af247","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>大a都带飞了</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>大a都带飞了</p></body></html>","text":"大a都带飞了","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623233857757264","repostId":2678435619,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2678435619","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1793147310,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2678435619?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-28 08:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"马斯克预判：人形机器人DRAM需求 或超过地球上所有应用","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2678435619","media":"快科技","summary":"近日，Counterpoint Research发布的预测报告称，人形机器人单机平均DRAM容量将从当前的19GB提升至2030年的39GB，使得人形机器人对DRAM的总需求量将从2026年的约8300TB增至2030年的约172000TB，增长约20倍。对此，马斯克直接在X平台引用该数据驳斥称，Counterpoint Research的这一预测是“荒谬的分析”，并写道：“机器人的RAM需求将超越地球上的其他一切，因为你需要机器人在物理基底上运行，以便塑造原子。”","content":"<html><body><p>快科技10月28日消息，<strong>特斯拉兼<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">SpaceX</a>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在社交平台X上发文，称市场研究机构Counterpoint Research最新关于人形机器人对内存需求的预测是“荒谬的分析”，并称人形机器人对内存的需求将碾压其他所有应用。</strong></p><p>近日，Counterpoint Research发布的预测报告称，人形机器人单机平均DRAM容量将从当前的19GB提升至2030年的39GB，使得人形机器人对DRAM的总需求量将从2026年的约8300TB增至2030年的约172000TB，增长约20倍。</p><p>对此，马斯克直接在X平台引用该数据驳斥称，Counterpoint Research的这一预测是“荒谬的分析”，并写道：“机器人的RAM需求将超越地球上的其他一切，因为你需要机器人在物理基底上运行，以便塑造原子。”</p><p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2026/DFB1D9FCC0C45CF8A782C683A0C240B6CEF4AB3E_size414_w600_h410.png\"/></p><p>他同时补充了一个看似矛盾的远期图景：<strong>超级智能的算力需求将“远远超过”机器人所需，但“近乎100%的超级智能计算将在深空进行”。这一表态暗示，在地球物理世界中，机器人将成为内存消耗的终极形态。</strong></p><p>马斯克的发言迅速引发市场分析师跟进。Futurum Equities首席市场策略师Shay Boloor随后给出了一个具体的量化推演：若特斯拉实现每年生产1000万台Optimus人形机器人的目标，以每台配置72GB内存估算，全年所需内存容量将达到约720PB。</p><p>Boloor进一步指出，机器人采用的是LPDDR（低功耗DRAM）而非AI数据中心惯用的HBM（高带宽内存），这意味着随着AI从云端走向物理实体，美光与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>可能迎来一个“体量大得多的市场规模的故事”。</p><p>美光首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra在此前的财报电话会上曾表示，L4级及以上自动驾驶车辆通常需要超过200GB内存和数TB存储，而人形机器人“很可能需要类似水平的内存和存储”。美光CFO更进一步预警，2027至2028年的内存供需将比2026年更加紧张。</p><p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2026/EF9AF7BEEBA0526D3E6BC9DBA7E42EF3B0B7198F_size98_w600_h309.png\"/></p><p>从投资逻辑看，机器人的内存需求与AI数据中心存在结构性差异。HBM是AI训练芯片的专属品类，由SK海力士主导、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>紧随，技术壁垒极高；而LPDDR是消费电子与嵌入式设备的主流内存，美光、三星、SK海力士均有成熟产线。</p><p><strong>若人形机器人真如马斯克所言走向千万台年产量级，其对LPDDR的拉动将是一条覆盖面更广、参与门槛更低的增量曲线。</strong></p><p>不过，这一推演的前提条件仍高度不确定。特斯拉Optimus的量产时间表尚未兑现。马斯克在近期财报电话会上表示，首批客户交付目标在2027年底左右，而Fremont工厂要达到每周2万台的产能“至少需要一年”。</p><p>此外，全球DRAM年产量当前约在450亿GB量级，若Optimus仅DRAM一项就以千万台规模消耗数百PB，其对全球内存供需结构的冲击将远超当前AI数据中心带来的紧张程度。</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马斯克预判：人形机器人DRAM需求 或超过地球上所有应用\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-10-28 08:28 北京时间 <a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8xYjGeAPjt5><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>快科技10月28日消息，特斯拉兼SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在社交平台X上发文，称市场研究机构Counterpoint Research最新关于人形机器人对内存需求的预测是“荒谬的分析”，并称人形机器人对内存的需求将碾压其他所有应用。近日，Counterpoint Research发布的预测报告称，人形机器人单机平均DRAM容量将从当前的19GB提升至2030年的39GB，使得人形机器人对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8xYjGeAPjt5\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BAI":"iShares A.I. 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