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2022-06-04

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"Goldman Is Wrong": Lithium Miners Brush off Share Price Rout<blockquote>“高盛错了”：锂矿商无视股价暴跌</blockquote>

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And I note in the Goldmans report that they support strong demand [too] but what they’re suggesting is there strong supply coming on foot” he said.<blockquote>“那只是一周前，还有一些团体强烈要求购买该产品，所以我们看到了强劲的需求。我在高盛的报告中注意到，他们也支持强劲的需求，但他们暗示的是供应强劲。步行”他说。</blockquote>“Of course that supply is coming, the question is when. There’ll be some coming on, but is it really going to tip the scales in the near term?<blockquote>“当然，供应即将到来，问题是什么时候。会有一些供应，但它真的会在短期内扭转局面吗？</blockquote>“There’s been a long period of underinvestment on the raw materials supply side and...obviously groups are moving forward now, but there is a long gestation period there, so in the near term we think the outlook looks fairly positive.”<blockquote>“原材料供应方面长期以来投资不足……显然各集团现在正在向前发展，但还有很长的酝酿期，因此短期内我们认为前景看起来相当乐观。”</blockquote>In contrast, Goldman warned that the lithium price boom of the past two years had spurred an “outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend”, tipping a “sharp correction” in lithium prices in the next two years. Lithium prices vary depending on geography, grade and its form, but the investment bank forecast lithium carbonate to slide from around $US60,000 a tonne to $US16,372 a tonne in 2023.<blockquote>相比之下，高盛警告称，过去两年的锂价繁荣刺激了“远远领先于需求趋势的过度供应反应”，导致未来两年锂价“大幅调整”。锂价格因地理位置、品位和形式而异，但该投资银行预测碳酸锂到2023年将从每吨60,000美元左右下滑至每吨16,372美元。</blockquote>Daniel Jimenez, a director of Galan Lithium who is also a partner of lithium consultancy iLiMarkets, agreed equity investors had been unnerved by the broker notes and other headlines, but were underestimating demand and overestimating supply.<blockquote>Galan Lithium董事、锂咨询公司iLiMarkets合伙人丹尼尔·希门尼斯(Daniel Jimenez)同意，股票投资者对经纪人报告和其他头条新闻感到不安，但低估了需求，高估了供应。</blockquote>“I think Goldman Sachs has it totally wrong,” he said.<blockquote>“我认为高盛完全错了，”他说。</blockquote>Mr Jimenez said wait times for EVs in Europe had blown out to up to 24 months, showing “real” demand was “significantly higher” today than car sales suggest, and more lithium, rather than less, would be needed than expected.<blockquote>希门尼斯表示，欧洲电动汽车的等待时间已长达24个月，这表明目前的“实际”需求“明显高于”汽车销量显示的需求，并且需要比预期更多而不是更少的锂。</blockquote>He expects global lithium carbonate equivalent demand to rise from 500,000 tonnes last year to 1.4 million in 2025, above Goldman’s forecast. As for supply, Mr Jimenez said it was unlikely new projects not known today would come online, and it’s hard for people “who have not been in the industry” to assess how challenging it is to expand lithium projects or build new ones.<blockquote>他预计全球碳酸锂当量需求将从去年的50万吨升至2025年的140万吨，高于高盛的预测。至于供应，希门尼斯表示，目前未知的新项目不太可能上线，“没有进入该行业”的人很难评估扩大锂项目或建设新项目的挑战有多大。</blockquote>The former executive at major Chilean producer SQM said adding EV original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, consistently had more ambitious plans and required more lithium than forecasters expected, while supply tended to be overestimated.<blockquote>智利主要生产商SQM的前高管表示，增加电动汽车原始设备制造商（OEM）一直有更雄心勃勃的计划，并且需要比预测者预期更多的锂，而供应往往被高估。</blockquote>“Unless something really catastrophic happens in the world, a third world war or an economic crash, I think it’s very unlikely we will see over the next five years a market where lithium is not short,” he said.<blockquote>“除非世界上发生真正灾难性的事情，第三次世界大战或经济崩溃，否则我认为我们不太可能在未来五年内看到锂不短缺的市场，”他说。</blockquote>Argonaut analyst George Ross said he was also sceptical the lithium supply coming to market would hit “as quickly as predicted”, noting many technical challenges in commissioning spodumene and brine operations.<blockquote>Argonaut分析师乔治·罗斯(George Ross)表示，他也怀疑进入市场的锂供应是否会“像预期的那样迅速”到来，并指出锂辉石和盐水作业的调试存在许多技术挑战。</blockquote>However, he conceded lithium stocks still look “overly inflated” after cumulative market capitalisations hit $48 billion this year up from less than $1 billion in 2015.<blockquote>然而，他承认，锂股的累计市值从2015年的不到10亿美元增至今年的480亿美元，看起来仍然“过度膨胀”。</blockquote>Following Pilbara’s share price slump, Macquarie analysts said the market was pricing in a flat lithium carbonate price of $US13,000 a tonne -- about 80 per cent below spot prices in China -- or spodumene at $US950 a tonne, 85 per cent below the price secured in its recent auction.<blockquote>皮尔巴拉股价暴跌后，麦格理分析师表示，市场对碳酸锂的定价为每吨13,000美元，比中国现货价格低约80%，或对锂辉石的定价为每吨950美元，比中国现货价格低85%。在最近的拍卖中获得的价格。</blockquote>Mr Henderson, who joined Pilbara in 2017 ahead of the lithium market’s two-year bear market, said it’s “very hard to imagine” lithium prices returning to those dark days, and he’d like to do another auction as “soon as possible… for obvious reasons”.<blockquote>亨德森先生于2017年在锂市场长达两年的熊市之前加入了皮尔巴拉，他表示“很难想象”锂价会回到那些黑暗的日子，他希望“尽快……出于显而易见的原因”。</blockquote>“The demand side of the equation is structurally different,” he said. “It seems lithium has gone from this very speculative sort of commodity back then to what’s sort of acknowledged as a key ingredient for the future.”<blockquote>“等式的需求方在结构上有所不同，”他说。“锂似乎已经从当时这种投机性很强的商品变成了被公认为未来的关键成分。”</blockquote>Macquarie’s analysts this week slightly reduced their 2022 EV sales forecasts, but still expect 43 per cent growth on last year to 9.5 million vehicles, and said any lithium and cobalt price pullbacks could be “temporary once China bounces back”.<blockquote>麦格理分析师本周小幅下调了2022年电动汽车销量预测，但仍预计销量将比去年增长43%，达到950万辆，并表示“一旦中国反弹，锂和钴价格的任何回调都可能是暂时的”。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1647818771712","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Goldman Is Wrong\": Lithium Miners Brush off Share Price Rout<blockquote>“高盛错了”：锂矿商无视股价暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nAustralian Financial Review2022-06-02 13:53\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>The incoming chief executive of lithium major Pilbara Minerals has shrugged off a handful of bearish broker notes on the hot sector, labelling it a “bold” move to call the peak for battery metals given ongoing strong demand for electric vehicles and the time it takes to bring on new supply.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>锂巨头Pilbara Minerals即将上任的首席执行官对一些对该热门行业的看跌券商报告不屑一顾，称鉴于电动汽车持续强劲的需求以及所需的时间，这是看涨期权电池金属高峰的“大胆”举措带来新的供应。</body></html></blockquote>On the weekend, Goldman Sachs’s UK-based analysts warned the battery metals bull market was “over for now”, while Credit Suisse’s Australian team told clients lithium prices may peak in the “next few months” as markets price in a balancing of supply and demand in coming years.<blockquote>周末，高盛驻英国分析师警告称，电池金属牛市“暂时结束”，而瑞士信贷澳大利亚团队告诉客户，随着市场定价供需平衡，锂价可能会在“未来几个月”见顶。未来几年的需求。</blockquote>It followed reports that Argentina’s plan to set a reference price for lithium carbonate exports and that Chinese EV manufacturer BYD was in talks to buy six African lithium mines that could supply it raw material for a decade.<blockquote>此前有报道称，阿根廷计划设定碳酸锂出口参考价格，中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪正在就购买六个非洲锂矿进行谈判，这些锂矿可以为其提供十年的原材料。</blockquote>The collision of negative headlines sparked ashare price rout among Australian listed lithium playersincluding Pilbara, IGO, Liontown Resources, Allkem and Mineral Resources on Wednesday, with Pilbara suffering one of the biggest declines of 18 per cent.<blockquote>周三，负面头条新闻的碰撞引发了Pilbara、IGO、Liontown Resources、Allkem和Mineral Resources等澳大利亚上市锂公司的A股股价暴跌，其中Pilbara跌幅最大，达18%。</blockquote>By early afternoon on Thursday, share prices were about flat or recovered some of the losses.<blockquote>到周四下午早些时候，股价基本持平或收复了部分失地。</blockquote>Dale Henderson, who Pilbara late on Wednesday revealed would replace Ken Brinsden as CEO on July 30, said he was surprised by the share moves given the lack of changes in spot lithium prices, but it seemed the broker notes had “startled the horses”.<blockquote>Pilbara周三晚间透露，戴尔·亨德森(Dale Henderson)将于7月30日接替肯·布林斯登(Ken Brinsden)担任首席执行官，他表示，鉴于现货锂价格没有变化，他对股价走势感到惊讶，但经纪人的说明似乎“吓了一跳”。</blockquote>“It’s a fairly bold call to say the peak has occurred, and the downhill trend will start within this calendar year,” he toldThe Australian Financial Review.<blockquote>他表示：“说峰值已经出现，下坡趋势将在今年内开始，这是一个相当大胆的看涨期权。”澳大利亚金融评论。</blockquote>Mr Henderson said the near term outlook remained “very positive”, noting the company last weeksecured a record price for a cargo of spodumenesold via its auction platform.<blockquote>亨德森表示，近期前景仍然“非常乐观”，并指出该公司上周通过其拍卖平台获得了创纪录的锂辉石黄金价格。</blockquote>“That was only a week ago and there were groups clamouring for that product, so we see that strong demand. And I note in the Goldmans report that they support strong demand [too] but what they’re suggesting is there strong supply coming on foot” he said.<blockquote>“那只是一周前，还有一些团体强烈要求购买该产品，所以我们看到了强劲的需求。我在高盛的报告中注意到，他们也支持强劲的需求，但他们暗示的是供应强劲。步行”他说。</blockquote>“Of course that supply is coming, the question is when. There’ll be some coming on, but is it really going to tip the scales in the near term?<blockquote>“当然，供应即将到来，问题是什么时候。会有一些供应，但它真的会在短期内扭转局面吗？</blockquote>“There’s been a long period of underinvestment on the raw materials supply side and...obviously groups are moving forward now, but there is a long gestation period there, so in the near term we think the outlook looks fairly positive.”<blockquote>“原材料供应方面长期以来投资不足……显然各集团现在正在向前发展，但还有很长的酝酿期，因此短期内我们认为前景看起来相当乐观。”</blockquote>In contrast, Goldman warned that the lithium price boom of the past two years had spurred an “outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend”, tipping a “sharp correction” in lithium prices in the next two years. Lithium prices vary depending on geography, grade and its form, but the investment bank forecast lithium carbonate to slide from around $US60,000 a tonne to $US16,372 a tonne in 2023.<blockquote>相比之下，高盛警告称，过去两年的锂价繁荣刺激了“远远领先于需求趋势的过度供应反应”，导致未来两年锂价“大幅调整”。锂价格因地理位置、品位和形式而异，但该投资银行预测碳酸锂到2023年将从每吨60,000美元左右下滑至每吨16,372美元。</blockquote>Daniel Jimenez, a director of Galan Lithium who is also a partner of lithium consultancy iLiMarkets, agreed equity investors had been unnerved by the broker notes and other headlines, but were underestimating demand and overestimating supply.<blockquote>Galan Lithium董事、锂咨询公司iLiMarkets合伙人丹尼尔·希门尼斯(Daniel Jimenez)同意，股票投资者对经纪人报告和其他头条新闻感到不安，但低估了需求，高估了供应。</blockquote>“I think Goldman Sachs has it totally wrong,” he said.<blockquote>“我认为高盛完全错了，”他说。</blockquote>Mr Jimenez said wait times for EVs in Europe had blown out to up to 24 months, showing “real” demand was “significantly higher” today than car sales suggest, and more lithium, rather than less, would be needed than expected.<blockquote>希门尼斯表示，欧洲电动汽车的等待时间已长达24个月，这表明目前的“实际”需求“明显高于”汽车销量显示的需求，并且需要比预期更多而不是更少的锂。</blockquote>He expects global lithium carbonate equivalent demand to rise from 500,000 tonnes last year to 1.4 million in 2025, above Goldman’s forecast. As for supply, Mr Jimenez said it was unlikely new projects not known today would come online, and it’s hard for people “who have not been in the industry” to assess how challenging it is to expand lithium projects or build new ones.<blockquote>他预计全球碳酸锂当量需求将从去年的50万吨升至2025年的140万吨，高于高盛的预测。至于供应，希门尼斯表示，目前未知的新项目不太可能上线，“没有进入该行业”的人很难评估扩大锂项目或建设新项目的挑战有多大。</blockquote>The former executive at major Chilean producer SQM said adding EV original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, consistently had more ambitious plans and required more lithium than forecasters expected, while supply tended to be overestimated.<blockquote>智利主要生产商SQM的前高管表示，增加电动汽车原始设备制造商（OEM）一直有更雄心勃勃的计划，并且需要比预测者预期更多的锂，而供应往往被高估。</blockquote>“Unless something really catastrophic happens in the world, a third world war or an economic crash, I think it’s very unlikely we will see over the next five years a market where lithium is not short,” he said.<blockquote>“除非世界上发生真正灾难性的事情，第三次世界大战或经济崩溃，否则我认为我们不太可能在未来五年内看到锂不短缺的市场，”他说。</blockquote>Argonaut analyst George Ross said he was also sceptical the lithium supply coming to market would hit “as quickly as predicted”, noting many technical challenges in commissioning spodumene and brine operations.<blockquote>Argonaut分析师乔治·罗斯(George Ross)表示，他也怀疑进入市场的锂供应是否会“像预期的那样迅速”到来，并指出锂辉石和盐水作业的调试存在许多技术挑战。</blockquote>However, he conceded lithium stocks still look “overly inflated” after cumulative market capitalisations hit $48 billion this year up from less than $1 billion in 2015.<blockquote>然而，他承认，锂股的累计市值从2015年的不到10亿美元增至今年的480亿美元，看起来仍然“过度膨胀”。</blockquote>Following Pilbara’s share price slump, Macquarie analysts said the market was pricing in a flat lithium carbonate price of $US13,000 a tonne -- about 80 per cent below spot prices in China -- or spodumene at $US950 a tonne, 85 per cent below the price secured in its recent auction.<blockquote>皮尔巴拉股价暴跌后，麦格理分析师表示，市场对碳酸锂的定价为每吨13,000美元，比中国现货价格低约80%，或对锂辉石的定价为每吨950美元，比中国现货价格低85%。在最近的拍卖中获得的价格。</blockquote>Mr Henderson, who joined Pilbara in 2017 ahead of the lithium market’s two-year bear market, said it’s “very hard to imagine” lithium prices returning to those dark days, and he’d like to do another auction as “soon as possible… for obvious reasons”.<blockquote>亨德森先生于2017年在锂市场长达两年的熊市之前加入了皮尔巴拉，他表示“很难想象”锂价会回到那些黑暗的日子，他希望“尽快……出于显而易见的原因”。</blockquote>“The demand side of the equation is structurally different,” he said. “It seems lithium has gone from this very speculative sort of commodity back then to what’s sort of acknowledged as a key ingredient for the future.”<blockquote>“等式的需求方在结构上有所不同，”他说。“锂似乎已经从当时这种投机性很强的商品变成了被公认为未来的关键成分。”</blockquote>Macquarie’s analysts this week slightly reduced their 2022 EV sales forecasts, but still expect 43 per cent growth on last year to 9.5 million vehicles, and said any lithium and cobalt price pullbacks could be “temporary once China bounces back”.<blockquote>麦格理分析师本周小幅下调了2022年电动汽车销量预测，但仍预计销量将比去年增长43%，达到950万辆，并表示“一旦中国反弹，锂和钴价格的任何回调都可能是暂时的”。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-open-down-as-wall-st-stumbles-20220602-p5aqfj\">Australian Financial Review</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IGO.AU":"IGO LTD","PLS.AU":"PLS Group Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-open-down-as-wall-st-stumbles-20220602-p5aqfj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184850825","content_text":"The incoming chief executive of lithium major Pilbara Minerals has shrugged off a handful of bearish broker notes on the hot sector, labelling it a “bold” move to call the peak for battery metals given ongoing strong demand for electric vehicles and the time it takes to bring on new supply.On the weekend, Goldman Sachs’s UK-based analysts warned the battery metals bull market was “over for now”, while Credit Suisse’s Australian team told clients lithium prices may peak in the “next few months” as markets price in a balancing of supply and demand in coming years.It followed reports that Argentina’s plan to set a reference price for lithium carbonate exports and that Chinese EV manufacturer BYD was in talks to buy six African lithium mines that could supply it raw material for a decade.The collision of negative headlines sparked ashare price rout among Australian listed lithium playersincluding Pilbara, IGO, Liontown Resources, Allkem and Mineral Resources on Wednesday, with Pilbara suffering one of the biggest declines of 18 per cent.By early afternoon on Thursday, share prices were about flat or recovered some of the losses.Dale Henderson, who Pilbara late on Wednesday revealed would replace Ken Brinsden as CEO on July 30, said he was surprised by the share moves given the lack of changes in spot lithium prices, but it seemed the broker notes had “startled the horses”.“It’s a fairly bold call to say the peak has occurred, and the downhill trend will start within this calendar year,” he toldThe Australian Financial Review.Mr Henderson said the near term outlook remained “very positive”, noting the company last weeksecured a record price for a cargo of spodumenesold via its auction platform.“That was only a week ago and there were groups clamouring for that product, so we see that strong demand. And I note in the Goldmans report that they support strong demand [too] but what they’re suggesting is there strong supply coming on foot” he said.“Of course that supply is coming, the question is when. There’ll be some coming on, but is it really going to tip the scales in the near term?“There’s been a long period of underinvestment on the raw materials supply side and...obviously groups are moving forward now, but there is a long gestation period there, so in the near term we think the outlook looks fairly positive.”In contrast, Goldman warned that the lithium price boom of the past two years had spurred an “outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend”, tipping a “sharp correction” in lithium prices in the next two years. Lithium prices vary depending on geography, grade and its form, but the investment bank forecast lithium carbonate to slide from around $US60,000 a tonne to $US16,372 a tonne in 2023.Daniel Jimenez, a director of Galan Lithium who is also a partner of lithium consultancy iLiMarkets, agreed equity investors had been unnerved by the broker notes and other headlines, but were underestimating demand and overestimating supply.“I think Goldman Sachs has it totally wrong,” he said.Mr Jimenez said wait times for EVs in Europe had blown out to up to 24 months, showing “real” demand was “significantly higher” today than car sales suggest, and more lithium, rather than less, would be needed than expected.He expects global lithium carbonate equivalent demand to rise from 500,000 tonnes last year to 1.4 million in 2025, above Goldman’s forecast. As for supply, Mr Jimenez said it was unlikely new projects not known today would come online, and it’s hard for people “who have not been in the industry” to assess how challenging it is to expand lithium projects or build new ones.The former executive at major Chilean producer SQM said adding EV original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, consistently had more ambitious plans and required more lithium than forecasters expected, while supply tended to be overestimated.“Unless something really catastrophic happens in the world, a third world war or an economic crash, I think it’s very unlikely we will see over the next five years a market where lithium is not short,” he said.Argonaut analyst George Ross said he was also sceptical the lithium supply coming to market would hit “as quickly as predicted”, noting many technical challenges in commissioning spodumene and brine operations.However, he conceded lithium stocks still look “overly inflated” after cumulative market capitalisations hit $48 billion this year up from less than $1 billion in 2015.Following Pilbara’s share price slump, Macquarie analysts said the market was pricing in a flat lithium carbonate price of $US13,000 a tonne -- about 80 per cent below spot prices in China -- or spodumene at $US950 a tonne, 85 per cent below the price secured in its recent auction.Mr Henderson, who joined Pilbara in 2017 ahead of the lithium market’s two-year bear market, said it’s “very hard to imagine” lithium prices returning to those dark days, and he’d like to do another auction as “soon as possible… for obvious reasons”.“The demand side of the equation is structurally different,” he said. “It seems lithium has gone from this very speculative sort of commodity back then to what’s sort of acknowledged as a key ingredient for the future.”Macquarie’s analysts this week slightly reduced their 2022 EV sales forecasts, but still expect 43 per cent growth on last year to 9.5 million vehicles, and said any lithium and cobalt price pullbacks could be “temporary once China bounces back”.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLS.AU":0.9,"IGO.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2358,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/617640927"}