帅帅的爸爸
09-28
加息都解决不了问题，难道降息去火上浇油？
Bill Ackman“炮轰”美联储：加息可能是个错误，AI热潮将让通胀更难控制
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Zandi此前也表示，美联储此时加息可能是“一个错误”，并警告称，若要将通胀重新压回2%的目标，美联储要么遏制AI投资热潮，要么进一步压制经济其他部分。</p>\n<h2>AI投资热潮，正在削弱加息的传统传导机制</h2>\n<p>传统货币政策逻辑是，加息提高借贷成本，抑制企业投资和居民消费，进而压低总需求和通胀。但Ackman认为，AI可能正在打破这一传导链条：对于超大规模科技公司而言，争夺AI基础设施和算力的潜在回报足以支撑其在更高利率环境下继续大举投资。</p>\n<p><strong>“在历史上这一独特时刻，为何更高的利率不会因利息成本被嵌入一切而导致更多通胀？”Ackman在帖子中反问。</strong></p>\n<p>这轮资本开支的规模也为这一判断提供了背景。Bridgewater Associates数据显示，Alphabet、Amazon、Meta和Microsoft今年的AI相关投资预计至少达到6500亿美元。Gartner最新预测则显示，2026年全球AI支出将达到2.7万亿美元，同比增长49.5%，其中AI基础设施支出约1.48万亿美元。</p>\n<p>这意味着，在AI投资高度依赖未来增长预期、且企业对算力和数据中心的需求仍然强劲的情况下，利率上升对这部分资本开支的抑制力度，可能弱于传统经济周期。Gartner甚至指出，AI基础设施需求目前对成本上升表现出较强韧性。</p>\n<h2>通胀仍高于目标，美联储紧缩压力难以消退</h2>\n<p>但对美联储而言，问题在于通胀并未真正回到目标水平。受能源价格上涨及其他供应冲击影响，美国通胀今年重新走高。<strong>以CPI衡量，通胀已连续66个月高于美联储2%的目标；核心PCE也已连续65个月高于目标。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，美联储官员近期的表态显示，对通胀持续性的担忧仍然突出。里士满联储主席Tom Barkin表示，当前价格压力已不再局限于能源和关税冲击，消费需求及更广泛的经济活动同样在推高通胀。圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem则认为，通胀仍可能需要进一步加息来压制。</p>\n<p>市场也已开始定价进一步收紧。<strong>CME Group的FedWatch工具显示，30天联邦基金期货隐含的10月加息概率约为64%；高盛经济学家同样预计美联储可能在10月27日至28日的会议上再次加息，但这一判断取决于油价走势。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bill Ackman“炮轰”美联储：加息可能是个错误，AI热潮将让通胀更难控制</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBill Ackman“炮轰”美联储：加息可能是个错误，AI热潮将让通胀更难控制\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-28 20:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>AI资本开支持续扩张，正在削弱加息对投资需求的传统抑制作用，甚至可能通过推高融资和生产成本，反过来增加通胀压力。<strong>亿万富翁投资者Bill Ackman警告，美联储此次加息可能是一个错误。</strong>美联储9月将基准利率上调25个基点至3.75%—4.00%。</p>\n<p>Ackman近日在X平台发文称，AI军备竞赛正推动科技巨头持续扩大资本开支。<strong>即使融资成本上升，企业仍可能继续建设数据中心、采购算力，使更高利率难以有效压制投资需求；与此同时，利息成本上升还可能通过供应链和定价机制传导至商品和服务价格。</strong></p>\n<p>这一担忧并非Ackman一人的判断。Moody's Analytics首席经济学家Mark Zandi此前也表示，美联储此时加息可能是“一个错误”，并警告称，若要将通胀重新压回2%的目标，美联储要么遏制AI投资热潮，要么进一步压制经济其他部分。</p>\n<h2>AI投资热潮，正在削弱加息的传统传导机制</h2>\n<p>传统货币政策逻辑是，加息提高借贷成本，抑制企业投资和居民消费，进而压低总需求和通胀。但Ackman认为，AI可能正在打破这一传导链条：对于超大规模科技公司而言，争夺AI基础设施和算力的潜在回报足以支撑其在更高利率环境下继续大举投资。</p>\n<p><strong>“在历史上这一独特时刻，为何更高的利率不会因利息成本被嵌入一切而导致更多通胀？”Ackman在帖子中反问。</strong></p>\n<p>这轮资本开支的规模也为这一判断提供了背景。Bridgewater Associates数据显示，Alphabet、Amazon、Meta和Microsoft今年的AI相关投资预计至少达到6500亿美元。Gartner最新预测则显示，2026年全球AI支出将达到2.7万亿美元，同比增长49.5%，其中AI基础设施支出约1.48万亿美元。</p>\n<p>这意味着，在AI投资高度依赖未来增长预期、且企业对算力和数据中心的需求仍然强劲的情况下，利率上升对这部分资本开支的抑制力度，可能弱于传统经济周期。Gartner甚至指出，AI基础设施需求目前对成本上升表现出较强韧性。</p>\n<h2>通胀仍高于目标，美联储紧缩压力难以消退</h2>\n<p>但对美联储而言，问题在于通胀并未真正回到目标水平。受能源价格上涨及其他供应冲击影响，美国通胀今年重新走高。<strong>以CPI衡量，通胀已连续66个月高于美联储2%的目标；核心PCE也已连续65个月高于目标。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，美联储官员近期的表态显示，对通胀持续性的担忧仍然突出。里士满联储主席Tom Barkin表示，当前价格压力已不再局限于能源和关税冲击，消费需求及更广泛的经济活动同样在推高通胀。圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem则认为，通胀仍可能需要进一步加息来压制。</p>\n<p>市场也已开始定价进一步收紧。<strong>CME Group的FedWatch工具显示，30天联邦基金期货隐含的10月加息概率约为64%；高盛经济学家同样预计美联储可能在10月27日至28日的会议上再次加息，但这一判断取决于油价走势。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e675d1cc4721aeacc55691640d95859","relate_stocks":{"DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","WAMA":"WisdomTree U.S. Adaptive Moving Average Fund","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","RULE":"Adaptive Core ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","RMIF":"LHA Risk-Managed Income ETF","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF","EDGF":"3EDGE Dynamic Fixed Income ETF","USHY":"iShares 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ETF - Quarterly","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3782656","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2670234313","content_text":"AI资本开支持续扩张，正在削弱加息对投资需求的传统抑制作用，甚至可能通过推高融资和生产成本，反过来增加通胀压力。亿万富翁投资者Bill Ackman警告，美联储此次加息可能是一个错误。美联储9月将基准利率上调25个基点至3.75%—4.00%。\nAckman近日在X平台发文称，AI军备竞赛正推动科技巨头持续扩大资本开支。即使融资成本上升，企业仍可能继续建设数据中心、采购算力，使更高利率难以有效压制投资需求；与此同时，利息成本上升还可能通过供应链和定价机制传导至商品和服务价格。\n这一担忧并非Ackman一人的判断。Moody's Analytics首席经济学家Mark Zandi此前也表示，美联储此时加息可能是“一个错误”，并警告称，若要将通胀重新压回2%的目标，美联储要么遏制AI投资热潮，要么进一步压制经济其他部分。\nAI投资热潮，正在削弱加息的传统传导机制\n传统货币政策逻辑是，加息提高借贷成本，抑制企业投资和居民消费，进而压低总需求和通胀。但Ackman认为，AI可能正在打破这一传导链条：对于超大规模科技公司而言，争夺AI基础设施和算力的潜在回报足以支撑其在更高利率环境下继续大举投资。\n“在历史上这一独特时刻，为何更高的利率不会因利息成本被嵌入一切而导致更多通胀？”Ackman在帖子中反问。\n这轮资本开支的规模也为这一判断提供了背景。Bridgewater Associates数据显示，Alphabet、Amazon、Meta和Microsoft今年的AI相关投资预计至少达到6500亿美元。Gartner最新预测则显示，2026年全球AI支出将达到2.7万亿美元，同比增长49.5%，其中AI基础设施支出约1.48万亿美元。\n这意味着，在AI投资高度依赖未来增长预期、且企业对算力和数据中心的需求仍然强劲的情况下，利率上升对这部分资本开支的抑制力度，可能弱于传统经济周期。Gartner甚至指出，AI基础设施需求目前对成本上升表现出较强韧性。\n通胀仍高于目标，美联储紧缩压力难以消退\n但对美联储而言，问题在于通胀并未真正回到目标水平。受能源价格上涨及其他供应冲击影响，美国通胀今年重新走高。以CPI衡量，通胀已连续66个月高于美联储2%的目标；核心PCE也已连续65个月高于目标。\n与此同时，美联储官员近期的表态显示，对通胀持续性的担忧仍然突出。里士满联储主席Tom Barkin表示，当前价格压力已不再局限于能源和关税冲击，消费需求及更广泛的经济活动同样在推高通胀。圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem则认为，通胀仍可能需要进一步加息来压制。\n市场也已开始定价进一步收紧。CME 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