GabbieTeo
2021-11-30
It will, if the government stop pumping in monies
Is Omicron The Catalyst That Ushers In The Next Bear Market?<blockquote>奥密克戎是迎来下一轮熊市的催化剂吗？</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":609892260,"tweetId":"609892260","gmtCreate":1638261363583,"gmtModify":1638261363746,"author":{"id":3554875446114741,"idStr":"3554875446114741","authorId":3554875446114741,"authorIdStr":"3554875446114741","name":"GabbieTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/866f3a126be2fa4bacd2d1e9086f1b51","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":25,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>It will, if the government stop pumping in monies </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>It will, if the government stop pumping in monies </p></body></html>","text":"It will, if the government stop pumping in monies","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609892260","repostId":1171526526,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171526526","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638257648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171526526?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 15:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Omicron The Catalyst That Ushers In The Next Bear Market?<blockquote>奥密克戎是迎来下一轮熊市的催化剂吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171526526","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Investors got rattled last Friday, but could the new COVID variant be the thing that finally topples stocks?","content":"<p>There’s clearly only topic of conversation for the financial markets this week. The announcement of the omicron variant of the COVID virus put investors into a panic and sent the S&P 500 to its largest single day loss since February and the Russell 2000 to its largest single day loss since June of last year. The reveal of a potentially more mutated and more highly contagious version of both the original COVID strain and the delta variant brought investors back to the early days of the pandemic when businesses, schools and other groups were suddenly forced to shut down.</p><p><blockquote>本周金融市场显然只有一个话题。COVID病毒omicron变种的公布让投资者陷入恐慌，并导致标普500创下自2月以来的最大单日跌幅，Russell 2000指数创下自去年6月以来的最大单日跌幅。原始新冠病毒株和德尔塔变异毒株病毒的潜在变异更多、传染性更强的版本的披露，让投资者回到了大流行初期，当时企业、学校和其他团体突然被迫关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Is it going to be as big of a deal as the markets fear it might be? It’s too early to know for sure (although the South African Medical Association seems to be downplaying the severity of it), but global governments appear to be taking no chances. Several countries have shut down their borders to people from South Africa and neighboring countries. New York has already declared a state of emergency despite no reported cases of the omicron variant. Of course, there’s still much to learn about the risk level of this COVID strain, but it’s clear that nerves are a bit frayed.</p><p><blockquote>这会像市场担心的那样重要吗？现在确定还为时过早（尽管南非医学协会似乎淡化了它的严重性），但全球政府似乎没有冒险。几个国家已经对来自南非和邻国的人关闭了边境。尽管没有奥密克戎变种病例的报告，但纽约已经宣布进入紧急状态。当然，关于这种COVID菌株的风险水平还有很多需要了解的，但很明显，神经有点紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, Friday’s sharp equity pullback looks like a classic overreaction. Yes, there’s a distinct possibility that it may not be the bottom and equities could sell off further, but given how investors have been prolific dip buyers over the past year and expectations for the taper and future interest rate hikes turned immediately dovish, per the Fed Funds futures market, I think investors will quickly conclude that the omicron variant will likely not be as bad as anticipated and, even if it is, the Fed will quickly step in, whether it’s via a delayed taper or no rate hike until 2023, to support risk asset prices. If I’m going out on a limb, I think there’s a chance the S&P 500 could recapture its all-time high (it’s currently about 2.3% below it) by the end of this week.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，周五股市的大幅回调看起来像是典型的过度反应。是的，很有可能不是底部，股市可能会进一步抛售，但考虑到投资者在过去一年中一直是多产的逢低买家，以及对缩减购债规模和未来加息的预期立即转向鸽派，根据联邦基金期货市场，我认为投资者很快就会得出结论，奥密克戎的变体可能不会像预期的那么糟糕，即使是这样，美联储也会迅速介入，无论是通过推迟缩减购债规模还是在2023年之前不加息，以支持风险资产价格。如果我冒险的话，我认为标普500有可能在本周末重新夺回历史高点（目前比其低约2.3%）。</blockquote></p><p> Market internals had already been softening leading up to last week. Breadth within the Nasdaq 100 has been getting weaker - 30 of the 100 components have pulled back at least 20%. Small-caps have been underperforming for weeks and leadership has rotated away from cyclicals and back into tech and consumer discretionary. Treasuries are looking strong again and even gold has been seeing some action.</p><p><blockquote>直到上周，市场内部已经走软。纳斯达克100指数的广度一直在减弱——100个成分股中有30个已经回调了至少20%。小盘股几周来表现不佳，领导层已从周期性股票转向科技股和非必需消费品。美国国债看起来再次走强，甚至黄金也出现了一些走势。</blockquote></p><p> Fear is high in the markets right now and that presents opportunity. Keep a level head and watch for panic signs (e.g. the number of articles talking about how stocks could pull back 30% from here) and words from the Fed that hint at what the central bank might do. Remember, in 2020 after the initial bear market, stocks rebounded quickly as soon as the Fed and the government stepped in. If Powell pivots to a more dovish stance, U.S. equities could quickly move higher again.</p><p><blockquote>目前市场上的恐惧情绪很高，这带来了机会。保持冷静，关注恐慌迹象（例如，谈论股市如何从这里回调30%的文章数量）以及美联储暗示央行可能采取行动的言论。请记住，在最初的熊市之后的2020年，美联储和政府一介入，股市就迅速反弹。如果鲍威尔转向更加鸽派的立场，美国股市可能会迅速再次走高。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s start our weekly review by taking a look at the primary market sectors.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一级市场板块开始我们的每周回顾。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87d1ba9c165a777608a551646236565\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, there’s little short-term strength in equities right now. Communication services remains the worst-looking of the 11 major sectors, but cyclicals are not that far behind. Energy stocks were down 4% on Friday as crude oil prices dropped more than 10%, but still managed to gain more than 1% on the week as a whole. Financials are weaker on falling interest rates, but industrials and materials are similarly well off recent highs.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，目前股市几乎没有短期走强。通信服务仍然是11个主要行业中最糟糕的，但周期性行业也不甘落后。由于原油价格下跌超过10%，能源股周五下跌4%，但全周仍上涨超过1%。由于利率下降，金融股走软，但工业和材料股同样远低于近期高点。</blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned above, tech and consumer discretionary have been the beneficiaries of rotation trades lately. Tech had become a steady outperformer before last week’s correction, while discretionary stocks have gained but remained volatile. Four of the 11 GICS sectors are now trading below their 50-day moving averages, which could be an indication that short-term momentum has run its course and it may be time for defensives to take over.</p><p><blockquote>正如我上面提到的，科技和非必需消费品最近一直是轮动交易的受益者。在上周的调整之前，科技股一直表现稳定，而非必需股有所上涨，但仍然波动。11个GICS板块中有4个目前交易价格低于50日移动均线，这可能表明短期势头已经结束，可能是时候让防御性板块接手了。</blockquote></p><p> The performance of small-caps, Treasuries and cyclicals point to more conservative positioning even before Friday. Utilities and consumer staples did relatively better as expected, but it’s been a while since either group had an extended run. This week will be telling, I think, in determining where investor risk tolerance is really at. If omicron looks like it will keep drawing out people’s fears, there might be room for defensive sectors to perform relatively well. Keep in mind that it’ll be all about business and social restrictions. If the economic impact is limited mostly to the leisure and travel sectors, the longer-term damage could be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股、国债和周期性股票的表现表明，即使在周五之前，仓位也会更加保守。公用事业和必需消费品的表现相对好于预期，但这两个行业都已经有一段时间没有长期上涨了。我认为，本周将有助于确定投资者的风险承受能力。如果奥密克戎看起来会继续引起人们的恐惧，那么防御性板块可能还有表现相对较好的空间。请记住，这将是所有关于商业和社会限制。如果经济影响主要限于休闲和旅游部门，那么长期损害可能很小。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbc4d98c13f73357d48d25a67a1ed80e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Short-term strength has fallen pretty much across the board, but with a few exceptions. Semiconductor stocks had a rough week along with the rest of the tech sector, but they remain one of the best performing groups throughout 2021. Homebuilder stocks continue to build on the strength in the housing, which, despite some stops and starts in sales, demand and commodity prices, been pretty consistent.</p><p><blockquote>短期强度几乎全面下降，但也有少数例外。半导体股与其他科技股一样经历了艰难的一周，但它们仍然是2021年表现最好的股票之一。住宅建筑商股票继续在房地产市场走强的基础上上涨，尽管销售、需求和大宗商品价格出现了一些起起伏伏，但房地产市场却相当稳定。</blockquote></p><p> No surprise that the casino, leisure and recreation stocks are getting hit the hardest. These, of course, are the first to get hit in an environment like this. New travel restrictions are already being put in place and we’re very likely to see even more in the coming weeks. As we’ve seen with New York, there’s been little hesitation so far to put mitigation efforts in place. Oil prices and energy demand forecasts have taken a hit adding to the pressure.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，赌场、休闲和娱乐股受到的打击最大。当然，在这样的环境中，这些是第一批受到打击的。新的旅行限制已经实施，我们很可能在未来几周看到更多。正如我们在纽约看到的那样，到目前为止，人们毫不犹豫地采取了缓解措施。油价和能源需求预测受到打击，加剧了压力。</blockquote></p><p> No major changes in the communication services sector. We’re still seeing weakness throughout, including the social media stocks, which continue to have a hard time reversing sentiment. The traditional telecoms were virtually changed this past week and could actually become a source of support should prices continue falling here.</p><p><blockquote>通信服务板块无重大变化。我们仍然看到整体疲软，包括社交媒体股票，它们仍然很难扭转市场情绪。传统电信在过去一周几乎发生了变化，如果这里的价格继续下跌，实际上可能会成为支持的来源。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04029e09b601d3f39d2cfc0be349d00\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Oil prices got hammered last week, which led to 5-6% losses for the explorers and servicers. The broader energy sector did comparatively better, but even clean energy posted a loss of 4% indicating little support across the board. Short-term sentiment for this sector has largely disappeared and the huge returns of earlier this year have long since been forgotten. This will be an especially omicron-dependent sector this week, so expect some above average volatility. Flow numbers show that investors are abandoning ship.</p><p><blockquote>上周油价遭受重创，导致勘探商和服务商损失5-6%。更广泛的能源板块表现相对较好，但即使是清洁能源也下跌了4%，表明几乎没有全面支持。该行业的短期情绪已基本消失，今年早些时候的巨额回报早已被遗忘。本周这将是一个特别依赖奥密克戎的行业，因此预计波动性会高于平均水平。流量数据显示投资者正在弃船。</blockquote></p><p> Just like the leisure sector, the airlines are especially weak here, but there’s really no group within the cyclicals that’s doing OK. The gold & silver miners had a moment in the sun, but with gold prices appearing to have lost their momentum again, they’ve been back on the downswing. Infrastructure stock returns have largely been a function of the passage of the infrastructure bill, but that momentum it also likely to begin fading.</p><p><blockquote>就像休闲行业一样，航空公司在这里尤其疲软，但周期性行业中确实没有一个集团表现良好。黄金和白银矿商度过了一段美好的时光，但随着金价似乎再次失去动力，他们又回到了下跌趋势。基础设施股票的回报在很大程度上取决于基础设施法案的通过，但这种势头也可能开始消退。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d74ecebe8c9240855b76ea5a23034f4\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Healthcare is starting to look a little, well, healthier again. Most of it looks like it’s due to its defensive sector peers starting to draw a little interest again, but any kind of health-related headlines, such as a new COVID variant, tend to produce at least a modest short-term bounce. Both Moderna and BioNTech, the makers of different COVID vaccines, were both up more than 20% last week alone and that’s making the biotech sector look a little stronger than it is. The <b>SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)</b>, which equal weights the sector and gives much less weight to those names, was down 4% last week. There is some money moving back into this space, but I don’t think it’s a compelling move just yet.</p><p><blockquote>医疗保健又开始看起来有点，嗯，更健康了。这在很大程度上看起来是由于其防御性行业同行开始再次引起一些兴趣，但任何与健康相关的头条新闻，例如新的新冠病毒变种，往往至少会产生适度的短期反弹。不同新冠疫苗的制造商Moderna和BioNTech仅上周就上涨了20%以上，这使得生物技术行业看起来比实际情况要强一些。The<b>SPDR S&P生物技术ETF(XBI)</b>该指数对该行业的权重相等，但对这些股票的权重要小得多，上周下跌了4%。有一些资金回流到这个领域，但我认为这还不是一个令人信服的举动。</blockquote></p><p> Not much doing on the commodities side. Crude and gasoline prices have plummeted, but natural gas prices have held their ground. I suspect that there’s some mean reversion in energy prices following Friday’s overreaction. The dollar remains very strong against the basket of global currencies although we’ll have to see if the omicron variant impacts that. Its strength has come on the back of comparatively higher interest rates and better economic growth readings. The plans for tapering and rate hikes may be pushed back now, which could bring the dollar back down.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品方面没什么可做的。原油和汽油价格暴跌，但天然气价格坚守阵地。我怀疑在周五的过度反应之后，能源价格会出现一些均值回归。美元兑一篮子全球货币仍然非常强劲，尽管我们必须看看奥密克戎变量是否会影响这一点。它的走强得益于相对较高的利率和较好的经济增长数据。缩减和加息的计划现在可能会被推迟，这可能会导致美元回落。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Omicron The Catalyst That Ushers In The Next Bear Market?<blockquote>奥密克戎是迎来下一轮熊市的催化剂吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Omicron The Catalyst That Ushers In The Next Bear Market?<blockquote>奥密克戎是迎来下一轮熊市的催化剂吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There’s clearly only topic of conversation for the financial markets this week. The announcement of the omicron variant of the COVID virus put investors into a panic and sent the S&P 500 to its largest single day loss since February and the Russell 2000 to its largest single day loss since June of last year. The reveal of a potentially more mutated and more highly contagious version of both the original COVID strain and the delta variant brought investors back to the early days of the pandemic when businesses, schools and other groups were suddenly forced to shut down.</p><p><blockquote>本周金融市场显然只有一个话题。COVID病毒omicron变种的公布让投资者陷入恐慌，并导致标普500创下自2月以来的最大单日跌幅，Russell 2000指数创下自去年6月以来的最大单日跌幅。原始新冠病毒株和德尔塔变异毒株病毒的潜在变异更多、传染性更强的版本的披露，让投资者回到了大流行初期，当时企业、学校和其他团体突然被迫关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Is it going to be as big of a deal as the markets fear it might be? It’s too early to know for sure (although the South African Medical Association seems to be downplaying the severity of it), but global governments appear to be taking no chances. Several countries have shut down their borders to people from South Africa and neighboring countries. New York has already declared a state of emergency despite no reported cases of the omicron variant. Of course, there’s still much to learn about the risk level of this COVID strain, but it’s clear that nerves are a bit frayed.</p><p><blockquote>这会像市场担心的那样重要吗？现在确定还为时过早（尽管南非医学协会似乎淡化了它的严重性），但全球政府似乎没有冒险。几个国家已经对来自南非和邻国的人关闭了边境。尽管没有奥密克戎变种病例的报告，但纽约已经宣布进入紧急状态。当然，关于这种COVID菌株的风险水平还有很多需要了解的，但很明显，神经有点紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, Friday’s sharp equity pullback looks like a classic overreaction. Yes, there’s a distinct possibility that it may not be the bottom and equities could sell off further, but given how investors have been prolific dip buyers over the past year and expectations for the taper and future interest rate hikes turned immediately dovish, per the Fed Funds futures market, I think investors will quickly conclude that the omicron variant will likely not be as bad as anticipated and, even if it is, the Fed will quickly step in, whether it’s via a delayed taper or no rate hike until 2023, to support risk asset prices. If I’m going out on a limb, I think there’s a chance the S&P 500 could recapture its all-time high (it’s currently about 2.3% below it) by the end of this week.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，周五股市的大幅回调看起来像是典型的过度反应。是的，很有可能不是底部，股市可能会进一步抛售，但考虑到投资者在过去一年中一直是多产的逢低买家，以及对缩减购债规模和未来加息的预期立即转向鸽派，根据联邦基金期货市场，我认为投资者很快就会得出结论，奥密克戎的变体可能不会像预期的那么糟糕，即使是这样，美联储也会迅速介入，无论是通过推迟缩减购债规模还是在2023年之前不加息，以支持风险资产价格。如果我冒险的话，我认为标普500有可能在本周末重新夺回历史高点（目前比其低约2.3%）。</blockquote></p><p> Market internals had already been softening leading up to last week. Breadth within the Nasdaq 100 has been getting weaker - 30 of the 100 components have pulled back at least 20%. Small-caps have been underperforming for weeks and leadership has rotated away from cyclicals and back into tech and consumer discretionary. Treasuries are looking strong again and even gold has been seeing some action.</p><p><blockquote>直到上周，市场内部已经走软。纳斯达克100指数的广度一直在减弱——100个成分股中有30个已经回调了至少20%。小盘股几周来表现不佳，领导层已从周期性股票转向科技股和非必需消费品。美国国债看起来再次走强，甚至黄金也出现了一些走势。</blockquote></p><p> Fear is high in the markets right now and that presents opportunity. Keep a level head and watch for panic signs (e.g. the number of articles talking about how stocks could pull back 30% from here) and words from the Fed that hint at what the central bank might do. Remember, in 2020 after the initial bear market, stocks rebounded quickly as soon as the Fed and the government stepped in. If Powell pivots to a more dovish stance, U.S. equities could quickly move higher again.</p><p><blockquote>目前市场上的恐惧情绪很高，这带来了机会。保持冷静，关注恐慌迹象（例如，谈论股市如何从这里回调30%的文章数量）以及美联储暗示央行可能采取行动的言论。请记住，在最初的熊市之后的2020年，美联储和政府一介入，股市就迅速反弹。如果鲍威尔转向更加鸽派的立场，美国股市可能会迅速再次走高。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s start our weekly review by taking a look at the primary market sectors.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一级市场板块开始我们的每周回顾。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87d1ba9c165a777608a551646236565\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, there’s little short-term strength in equities right now. Communication services remains the worst-looking of the 11 major sectors, but cyclicals are not that far behind. Energy stocks were down 4% on Friday as crude oil prices dropped more than 10%, but still managed to gain more than 1% on the week as a whole. Financials are weaker on falling interest rates, but industrials and materials are similarly well off recent highs.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，目前股市几乎没有短期走强。通信服务仍然是11个主要行业中最糟糕的，但周期性行业也不甘落后。由于原油价格下跌超过10%，能源股周五下跌4%，但全周仍上涨超过1%。由于利率下降，金融股走软，但工业和材料股同样远低于近期高点。</blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned above, tech and consumer discretionary have been the beneficiaries of rotation trades lately. Tech had become a steady outperformer before last week’s correction, while discretionary stocks have gained but remained volatile. Four of the 11 GICS sectors are now trading below their 50-day moving averages, which could be an indication that short-term momentum has run its course and it may be time for defensives to take over.</p><p><blockquote>正如我上面提到的，科技和非必需消费品最近一直是轮动交易的受益者。在上周的调整之前，科技股一直表现稳定，而非必需股有所上涨，但仍然波动。11个GICS板块中有4个目前交易价格低于50日移动均线，这可能表明短期势头已经结束，可能是时候让防御性板块接手了。</blockquote></p><p> The performance of small-caps, Treasuries and cyclicals point to more conservative positioning even before Friday. Utilities and consumer staples did relatively better as expected, but it’s been a while since either group had an extended run. This week will be telling, I think, in determining where investor risk tolerance is really at. If omicron looks like it will keep drawing out people’s fears, there might be room for defensive sectors to perform relatively well. Keep in mind that it’ll be all about business and social restrictions. If the economic impact is limited mostly to the leisure and travel sectors, the longer-term damage could be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股、国债和周期性股票的表现表明，即使在周五之前，仓位也会更加保守。公用事业和必需消费品的表现相对好于预期，但这两个行业都已经有一段时间没有长期上涨了。我认为，本周将有助于确定投资者的风险承受能力。如果奥密克戎看起来会继续引起人们的恐惧，那么防御性板块可能还有表现相对较好的空间。请记住，这将是所有关于商业和社会限制。如果经济影响主要限于休闲和旅游部门，那么长期损害可能很小。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbc4d98c13f73357d48d25a67a1ed80e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Short-term strength has fallen pretty much across the board, but with a few exceptions. Semiconductor stocks had a rough week along with the rest of the tech sector, but they remain one of the best performing groups throughout 2021. Homebuilder stocks continue to build on the strength in the housing, which, despite some stops and starts in sales, demand and commodity prices, been pretty consistent.</p><p><blockquote>短期强度几乎全面下降，但也有少数例外。半导体股与其他科技股一样经历了艰难的一周，但它们仍然是2021年表现最好的股票之一。住宅建筑商股票继续在房地产市场走强的基础上上涨，尽管销售、需求和大宗商品价格出现了一些起起伏伏，但房地产市场却相当稳定。</blockquote></p><p> No surprise that the casino, leisure and recreation stocks are getting hit the hardest. These, of course, are the first to get hit in an environment like this. New travel restrictions are already being put in place and we’re very likely to see even more in the coming weeks. As we’ve seen with New York, there’s been little hesitation so far to put mitigation efforts in place. Oil prices and energy demand forecasts have taken a hit adding to the pressure.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，赌场、休闲和娱乐股受到的打击最大。当然，在这样的环境中，这些是第一批受到打击的。新的旅行限制已经实施，我们很可能在未来几周看到更多。正如我们在纽约看到的那样，到目前为止，人们毫不犹豫地采取了缓解措施。油价和能源需求预测受到打击，加剧了压力。</blockquote></p><p> No major changes in the communication services sector. We’re still seeing weakness throughout, including the social media stocks, which continue to have a hard time reversing sentiment. The traditional telecoms were virtually changed this past week and could actually become a source of support should prices continue falling here.</p><p><blockquote>通信服务板块无重大变化。我们仍然看到整体疲软，包括社交媒体股票，它们仍然很难扭转市场情绪。传统电信在过去一周几乎发生了变化，如果这里的价格继续下跌，实际上可能会成为支持的来源。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04029e09b601d3f39d2cfc0be349d00\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Oil prices got hammered last week, which led to 5-6% losses for the explorers and servicers. The broader energy sector did comparatively better, but even clean energy posted a loss of 4% indicating little support across the board. Short-term sentiment for this sector has largely disappeared and the huge returns of earlier this year have long since been forgotten. This will be an especially omicron-dependent sector this week, so expect some above average volatility. Flow numbers show that investors are abandoning ship.</p><p><blockquote>上周油价遭受重创，导致勘探商和服务商损失5-6%。更广泛的能源板块表现相对较好，但即使是清洁能源也下跌了4%，表明几乎没有全面支持。该行业的短期情绪已基本消失，今年早些时候的巨额回报早已被遗忘。本周这将是一个特别依赖奥密克戎的行业，因此预计波动性会高于平均水平。流量数据显示投资者正在弃船。</blockquote></p><p> Just like the leisure sector, the airlines are especially weak here, but there’s really no group within the cyclicals that’s doing OK. The gold & silver miners had a moment in the sun, but with gold prices appearing to have lost their momentum again, they’ve been back on the downswing. Infrastructure stock returns have largely been a function of the passage of the infrastructure bill, but that momentum it also likely to begin fading.</p><p><blockquote>就像休闲行业一样，航空公司在这里尤其疲软，但周期性行业中确实没有一个集团表现良好。黄金和白银矿商度过了一段美好的时光，但随着金价似乎再次失去动力，他们又回到了下跌趋势。基础设施股票的回报在很大程度上取决于基础设施法案的通过，但这种势头也可能开始消退。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d74ecebe8c9240855b76ea5a23034f4\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Healthcare is starting to look a little, well, healthier again. Most of it looks like it’s due to its defensive sector peers starting to draw a little interest again, but any kind of health-related headlines, such as a new COVID variant, tend to produce at least a modest short-term bounce. Both Moderna and BioNTech, the makers of different COVID vaccines, were both up more than 20% last week alone and that’s making the biotech sector look a little stronger than it is. The <b>SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)</b>, which equal weights the sector and gives much less weight to those names, was down 4% last week. There is some money moving back into this space, but I don’t think it’s a compelling move just yet.</p><p><blockquote>医疗保健又开始看起来有点，嗯，更健康了。这在很大程度上看起来是由于其防御性行业同行开始再次引起一些兴趣，但任何与健康相关的头条新闻，例如新的新冠病毒变种，往往至少会产生适度的短期反弹。不同新冠疫苗的制造商Moderna和BioNTech仅上周就上涨了20%以上，这使得生物技术行业看起来比实际情况要强一些。The<b>SPDR S&P生物技术ETF(XBI)</b>该指数对该行业的权重相等，但对这些股票的权重要小得多，上周下跌了4%。有一些资金回流到这个领域，但我认为这还不是一个令人信服的举动。</blockquote></p><p> Not much doing on the commodities side. Crude and gasoline prices have plummeted, but natural gas prices have held their ground. I suspect that there’s some mean reversion in energy prices following Friday’s overreaction. The dollar remains very strong against the basket of global currencies although we’ll have to see if the omicron variant impacts that. Its strength has come on the back of comparatively higher interest rates and better economic growth readings. The plans for tapering and rate hikes may be pushed back now, which could bring the dollar back down.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品方面没什么可做的。原油和汽油价格暴跌，但天然气价格坚守阵地。我怀疑在周五的过度反应之后，能源价格会出现一些均值回归。美元兑一篮子全球货币仍然非常强劲，尽管我们必须看看奥密克戎变量是否会影响这一点。它的走强得益于相对较高的利率和较好的经济增长数据。缩减和加息的计划现在可能会被推迟，这可能会导致美元回落。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/is-omicron-catalyst-that-ushers-in-next-bear-market\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/is-omicron-catalyst-that-ushers-in-next-bear-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171526526","content_text":"There’s clearly only topic of conversation for the financial markets this week. The announcement of the omicron variant of the COVID virus put investors into a panic and sent the S&P 500 to its largest single day loss since February and the Russell 2000 to its largest single day loss since June of last year. The reveal of a potentially more mutated and more highly contagious version of both the original COVID strain and the delta variant brought investors back to the early days of the pandemic when businesses, schools and other groups were suddenly forced to shut down.\nIs it going to be as big of a deal as the markets fear it might be? It’s too early to know for sure (although the South African Medical Association seems to be downplaying the severity of it), but global governments appear to be taking no chances. Several countries have shut down their borders to people from South Africa and neighboring countries. New York has already declared a state of emergency despite no reported cases of the omicron variant. Of course, there’s still much to learn about the risk level of this COVID strain, but it’s clear that nerves are a bit frayed.\nIn my opinion, Friday’s sharp equity pullback looks like a classic overreaction. Yes, there’s a distinct possibility that it may not be the bottom and equities could sell off further, but given how investors have been prolific dip buyers over the past year and expectations for the taper and future interest rate hikes turned immediately dovish, per the Fed Funds futures market, I think investors will quickly conclude that the omicron variant will likely not be as bad as anticipated and, even if it is, the Fed will quickly step in, whether it’s via a delayed taper or no rate hike until 2023, to support risk asset prices. If I’m going out on a limb, I think there’s a chance the S&P 500 could recapture its all-time high (it’s currently about 2.3% below it) by the end of this week.\nMarket internals had already been softening leading up to last week. Breadth within the Nasdaq 100 has been getting weaker - 30 of the 100 components have pulled back at least 20%. Small-caps have been underperforming for weeks and leadership has rotated away from cyclicals and back into tech and consumer discretionary. Treasuries are looking strong again and even gold has been seeing some action.\nFear is high in the markets right now and that presents opportunity. Keep a level head and watch for panic signs (e.g. the number of articles talking about how stocks could pull back 30% from here) and words from the Fed that hint at what the central bank might do. Remember, in 2020 after the initial bear market, stocks rebounded quickly as soon as the Fed and the government stepped in. If Powell pivots to a more dovish stance, U.S. equities could quickly move higher again.\nLet’s start our weekly review by taking a look at the primary market sectors.\n\nNot surprisingly, there’s little short-term strength in equities right now. Communication services remains the worst-looking of the 11 major sectors, but cyclicals are not that far behind. Energy stocks were down 4% on Friday as crude oil prices dropped more than 10%, but still managed to gain more than 1% on the week as a whole. Financials are weaker on falling interest rates, but industrials and materials are similarly well off recent highs.\nAs I mentioned above, tech and consumer discretionary have been the beneficiaries of rotation trades lately. Tech had become a steady outperformer before last week’s correction, while discretionary stocks have gained but remained volatile. Four of the 11 GICS sectors are now trading below their 50-day moving averages, which could be an indication that short-term momentum has run its course and it may be time for defensives to take over.\nThe performance of small-caps, Treasuries and cyclicals point to more conservative positioning even before Friday. Utilities and consumer staples did relatively better as expected, but it’s been a while since either group had an extended run. This week will be telling, I think, in determining where investor risk tolerance is really at. If omicron looks like it will keep drawing out people’s fears, there might be room for defensive sectors to perform relatively well. Keep in mind that it’ll be all about business and social restrictions. If the economic impact is limited mostly to the leisure and travel sectors, the longer-term damage could be minimal.\n\nShort-term strength has fallen pretty much across the board, but with a few exceptions. Semiconductor stocks had a rough week along with the rest of the tech sector, but they remain one of the best performing groups throughout 2021. Homebuilder stocks continue to build on the strength in the housing, which, despite some stops and starts in sales, demand and commodity prices, been pretty consistent.\nNo surprise that the casino, leisure and recreation stocks are getting hit the hardest. These, of course, are the first to get hit in an environment like this. New travel restrictions are already being put in place and we’re very likely to see even more in the coming weeks. As we’ve seen with New York, there’s been little hesitation so far to put mitigation efforts in place. Oil prices and energy demand forecasts have taken a hit adding to the pressure.\nNo major changes in the communication services sector. We’re still seeing weakness throughout, including the social media stocks, which continue to have a hard time reversing sentiment. The traditional telecoms were virtually changed this past week and could actually become a source of support should prices continue falling here.\n\nOil prices got hammered last week, which led to 5-6% losses for the explorers and servicers. The broader energy sector did comparatively better, but even clean energy posted a loss of 4% indicating little support across the board. Short-term sentiment for this sector has largely disappeared and the huge returns of earlier this year have long since been forgotten. This will be an especially omicron-dependent sector this week, so expect some above average volatility. Flow numbers show that investors are abandoning ship.\nJust like the leisure sector, the airlines are especially weak here, but there’s really no group within the cyclicals that’s doing OK. The gold & silver miners had a moment in the sun, but with gold prices appearing to have lost their momentum again, they’ve been back on the downswing. Infrastructure stock returns have largely been a function of the passage of the infrastructure bill, but that momentum it also likely to begin fading.\n\nHealthcare is starting to look a little, well, healthier again. Most of it looks like it’s due to its defensive sector peers starting to draw a little interest again, but any kind of health-related headlines, such as a new COVID variant, tend to produce at least a modest short-term bounce. Both Moderna and BioNTech, the makers of different COVID vaccines, were both up more than 20% last week alone and that’s making the biotech sector look a little stronger than it is. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which equal weights the sector and gives much less weight to those names, was down 4% last week. There is some money moving back into this space, but I don’t think it’s a compelling move just yet.\nNot much doing on the commodities side. Crude and gasoline prices have plummeted, but natural gas prices have held their ground. I suspect that there’s some mean reversion in energy prices following Friday’s overreaction. The dollar remains very strong against the basket of global currencies although we’ll have to see if the omicron variant impacts that. Its strength has come on the back of comparatively higher interest rates and better economic growth readings. The plans for tapering and rate hikes may be pushed back now, which could bring the dollar back down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2719,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":41,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/609892260"}
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