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2021-11-30
Let’s go
Apple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy<blockquote>苹果股票：这是您购买的机会</blockquote>
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A new COVID variant is never a good thing - for a variety of reasons - and the market sold first and asked questions later. The good news is that selling created some great entry points on leading stocks, and in this article, I'll update my views on technology mothership <b>Apple</b>(AAPL), which I believe just hit very strong support, and is now ready for a run to a new all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>上周五发生的抛售当然出乎意料。出于各种原因，新的COVID变体从来都不是一件好事，市场先出售，后提出问题。好消息是，抛售在领先股票上创造了一些很好的切入点，在本文中，我将更新我对技术母舰的看法<b>苹果</b>（AAPL），我相信它刚刚获得了非常强劲的支撑，现在已经准备好创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has been a model portfolio stock in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service,<i>Timely Trader</i>, since the service's inception, and by all evidence, appears poised to maintain its position. The portfolio is re-evaluated every month to ensure our capital is deployed effectively, and Apple continues to make the cut. Below I'll explain why the noise around the supply chain is just that, and why the stock has positioned itself for continued highs into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>苹果一直是我的 Seeking Alpha Marketplace 服务中的示范投资组合股票，<i>及时交易者</i>自该服务成立以来，所有证据都表明，它似乎准备保持其地位。投资组合每个月都会重新评估，以确保我们的资本得到有效部署，苹果继续削减。下面我将解释为什么供应链周围的噪音就是这样，以及为什么该股将自己定位为在 2022 年持续高位。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a005c1e28b33227395e295eb4d3ac6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"812\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We'll take a brief look at the chart, because I think this pretty clearly illustrates why Apple is a buy right now. First, the stock made a new all-time high earlier this month on very heavy volume, which is a bullish trait. It means buyers were out in force while the share price was rising, indicating a lot of market participation with the new high. That coincided with a new high in the accumulation/distribution line, which measures whether the stock is finishing nearer to the high or low for the day. A higher A/D line means buyers are active during the day, and is another bullish trait; Apple is exhibiting this as well.</p><p><blockquote>我们将简要看一下图表，因为我认为这非常清楚地说明了为什么苹果现在值得买入。首先，该股本月早些时候以非常大的成交量创下历史新高，这是一个看涨特征。这意味着当股价上涨时，买家大量涌出，表明市场参与度创下新高。这与累积/分配线的新高相吻合，该线衡量股票是接近当天的高点还是低点。较高的A/D线意味着买家在白天很活跃，是另一个看涨特征；苹果也在展示这个。</blockquote></p><p> The stock was overbought during the rally - as measured by the 14-day RSI - but has since pulled back meaningfully during this consolidation. That's completely expected and totally fine, as it means the bulls can now make another run higher. And finally, the PPO is in very bullish territory, and is continuing to move higher, so I see no issues with momentum despite the recent pullback.</p><p><blockquote>根据 14 天 RSI 指标衡量，该股在反弹期间被超买，但此后在这次盘整期间大幅回调。这完全在意料之中，也完全没问题，因为这意味着多头现在可以再次走高。最后，PPO 处于非常看涨的区域，并且继续走高，因此尽管最近有所回调，但我认为动量没有问题。</blockquote></p><p> In short, Apple's chart looks great, and with support at ~$157, which was the prior breakout level, as well as the rising 20-day EMA (in red above), I see a lot of reasons to be bullish today.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，苹果的图表看起来很棒，支撑位约为 157 美元，这是之前的突破水平，以及上升的 20 日均线（上图红色），我看到了今天看涨的很多理由。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's take a look at the fundamental case for Apple, which I think remains as strong as it has ever been.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看苹果的基本情况，我认为它仍然一如既往地强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ignore the noise, Apple is still dominant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>忽略噪音，苹果仍然占主导地位</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Q4 earnings showed a rare revenue miss and profit number that was only in line with expectations, which is quite unusual for this juggernaut. However, as we all know, Apple and others are being heavily impacted by supply chain woes that have absolutely taken over the conversation when it comes to the economy in recent months. Apple, like any other manufacturer, needs its supply chain to be functioning at full speed in order to maximize revenue, but these things are largely out of its control. Apple suffered for that in Q4, but instead of focusing on the report itself, which you can read all about in a variety of places, let's look at how Apple may respond in the fiscal year that just began.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第四季度财报显示了罕见的收入低于预期，利润数据仅符合预期，这对于这家巨头来说是相当不寻常的。然而，众所周知，苹果和其他国家正受到供应链困境的严重影响，近几个月来，当谈到经济时，供应链困境绝对占据了话题。与任何其他制造商一样，苹果需要其供应链全速运转，以实现收入最大化，但这些事情在很大程度上超出了其控制范围。苹果在第四季度因此遭受了损失，但与其关注报告本身（您可以在各种地方阅读所有相关内容），不如让我们看看苹果在刚刚开始的财年可能会如何应对。</blockquote></p><p> There is evidence to suggest that Apple's supply chain issues that negatively impacted the fourth quarter, and indeed, October as well, are abating. Keep in mind that Apple's suppliers have massive incentives to keep their components flowing to Apple to make phones and other devices, so there are literally thousands of people across the world working to address Apple's supply chain issues. With the iPhone 13 cycle ramping up, and China showing strong demand for Apple products once again, all looks well.</p><p><blockquote>有证据表明，对第四季度乃至 10 月份产生负面影响的苹果供应链问题正在消退。请记住，苹果的供应商有巨大的激励措施来保持他们的零部件流向苹果制造手机和其他设备，因此全世界有成千上万的人致力于解决苹果的供应链问题。随着iPhone 13周期的加速，以及中国大陆对苹果产品的强劲需求再次显示出，一切看起来都很好。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind also that selling the stock because Apple cannot keep up with demand is a bit counterintuitive. Generally, you want to sell stocks that have too much supply and not enough demand; Apple has the opposite problem, which indicates two things. First, pricing power should remain quite strong given the demand/supply imbalance, and second, when supply does catch up to demand, we'll see higher volumes at strong prices. Why would you sell a stock with these characteristics?</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，因为苹果无法满足需求而出售股票有点违反直觉。一般情况下，你要卖出供应过多而需求不足的股票；苹果有相反的问题，这表明了两件事。首先，鉴于供需不平衡，定价权应该保持相当强，其次，当供应赶上需求时，我们将看到价格强劲的更高数量。你为什么要出售具有这些特征的股票？</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's take a look at revenue estimates to see how analysts see Apple moving forward given the supply chain issues are well-known.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看收入预测，看看鉴于供应链问题众所周知，分析师如何看待苹果的发展。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4ee0e69bc003794d9ef8a801403a88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that Apple's estimates continue to move up and to the right, although one could argue the pace of increases has slowed. That's okay, because the important thing is that we continue to see higher and higher revenue estimates for the years to come. I'd also offer that Apple has generally performed quite well against revenue estimates, which is why Q4's revenue miss took people by surprise. I'll reiterate the revenue miss was due to supply chain issues outside of the company's control, and therefore shouldn't be blown out of proportion; it's transitory.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，苹果的估计继续向上和向右移动，尽管有人可能会说增长的速度已经放缓。没关系，因为重要的是我们将继续看到未来几年越来越高的收入预期。我还想说，与收入预期相比，苹果的表现总体上相当不错，这就是为什么第四季度的收入低迷让人们感到惊讶。我重申，收入损失是由于公司无法控制的供应链问题造成的，因此不应被夸大；这是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Now, another key to the bull thesis is that Apple's margins are <i>flying</i>, which we can see below. I've plotted trailing-twelve-months revenue and operating margins to illustrate how operating leverage is working for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>现在，牛市论点的另一个关键是苹果的利润率是<i>飞行</i>我们可以在下面看到。我绘制了过去 12 个月的收入和营业利润率，以说明运营杠杆如何为苹果发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbaba8826e257af5666c27d29b2f18cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue on a TTM basis was actually pretty flat for a couple of years, but in the past handful of quarters, has flown higher. With that, operating margins have moved significantly higher as well, with the September 2020 quarter posting 24% operating margins, while this year's September quarter posting TTM margins of 30%. That's a 25% increase in the amount of profit per dollar of revenue Apple produces, which is enormous to say the least. And as we'll see in just a moment, those gains look set to continue.</p><p><blockquote>按 TTM 计算的收入实际上在几年内相当持平，但在过去几个季度中，收入有所上升。因此，营业利润率也大幅上升，2020 年 9 月季度的营业利润率为 24%，而今年 9 月季度的 TTM 利润率为 30%。这意味着苹果每美元收入的利润增加了 25%，至少可以说是巨大的。正如我们稍后将看到的那样，这些收益看起来将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> Below we have TTM gross margins and SG&A costs, which are the two main components of operating margins, to illustrate how Apple has achieved its profitability gains.</p><p><blockquote>下面我们列出了营业利润率的两个主要组成部分 TTM 毛利率和 SG&A 成本，以说明苹果如何实现盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af4bc2b49806742ed776ba5e76577543\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SG&A costs have declined from just over 7% of revenue to only 6% of revenue as of the most recent quarter, while gross margins are up from ~38% to ~42% in the same period. That means Apple is gaining on both sides of the equation, showing strong margins through pricing power, and reducing relative costs to produce revenue. This is how Apple has managed to boost profitability so much in the past few quarters, and it all hinges upon higher revenue.</p><p><blockquote>截至最近一个季度，SG&A 成本已从收入的 7% 多一点下降到仅占收入的 6%，而同期毛利率则从约 38% 上升到约 42%。这意味着苹果在等式的两边都有所收获，通过定价权显示出强劲的利润率，并降低产生收入的相对成本。这就是苹果在过去几个季度中如何大幅提高盈利能力，而这一切都取决于更高的收入。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that so long as revenue is rising, we should see steady or higher gross margins, and lower SG&A costs. These things combine to create higher profitability per dollar of revenue, so we get this supercharged impact on earnings growth where revenue is higher, and the profit per dollar is higher. If you're an Apple bull, you want to keep your eye on revenue because it's driving everything.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，只要收入上升，我们应该会看到稳定或更高的毛利率，以及更低的SG&A成本。这些因素结合起来创造了更高的每美元收入盈利能力，因此当收入更高、每美元利润更高时，我们会对盈利增长产生更大的影响。如果你是苹果多头，你会想关注收入，因为它是一切的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Switching gears, Apple has been a very strong returner of capital in recent years, and that is no different today. The dividend is pretty small and meaningless at this point, but the company's efforts to reduce the float are anything but.</p><p><blockquote>换个角度来看，苹果近年来一直是一个非常强劲的资本回报者，今天也不例外。目前股息相当小，毫无意义，但该公司减少流通股的努力却远非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02926f966d571a5d9af3865b5534bd75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the share count is<i>36% lower</i>than it was in 2012, which means that on a per-share basis, Apple's earnings are worth 36% more than they otherwise would be. Apple has far more cash than it could ever profitably reinvest in the business, and it produces more and more every year. That means we'll almost certainly see this continue to dwindle, providing a constant tailwind to EPS every year.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到股份数量是<i>降低36%</i>比 2012 年高出 36%，这意味着按每股计算，苹果的收益比其他情况下高出 36%。苹果拥有的现金远远超过了它在该业务中能够盈利的再投资，而且它每年的产量越来越多。这意味着我们几乎肯定会看到这种情况继续减少，每年为每股收益提供持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> We therefore have ever-rising revenue, rising margins, and a lower share count, all of which support higher EPS. It is no surprise then that Apple's EPS revisions look the way they do.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的收入不断增长，利润率不断上升，股票数量不断减少，所有这些都支持更高的每股收益。因此，苹果的每股收益修订看起来是这样也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b562a3b59264989d5077b069db4633ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is exactly what you want to see, and it's the product of a company that continues to outperform expectations, intelligently return capital to shareholders, and continue to create and market world-class products that consumers cannot get enough of.</p><p><blockquote>这正是您希望看到的，而且它是一家公司的产品，该公司持续超出预期，明智地将资本返还给股东，并继续创造和营销消费者爱不释手的世界级产品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation reset creates a buying chance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值重置创造买入机会</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, we all know valuations are stretched in a lot of places for a lot of different stocks, and Apple is no different. We can see below that its forward PE is 28X today, versus a three-year average of 23X. However, it's well off its high of 37X, and I'd argue that given its acceleration of revenue and margins, Apple should be more highly valued than it was in the past three years. The simple fact is that the company's earnings stream has improved greatly, so why shouldn't the valuation?</p><p><blockquote>现在，我们都知道许多不同股票的估值在很多地方都被拉长了，苹果也不例外。我们可以在下面看到，其远期市盈率目前为 28 倍，而三年平均水平为 23 倍。然而，它远远低于 37 倍的高点，我认为，鉴于其收入和利润率的加速增长，苹果的估值应该比过去三年更高。简单的事实是，公司的收入流已经有了很大的改善，那么为什么估值不应该呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3375c0e3b0081634279d2f828195612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the company's growth trajectory, and including the fact that we should see some pent-up demand from fiscal 2021 moved into fiscal 2022 due to supply chain issues, I see this valuation as quite enticing. In fact, I think there's a lot more upside potential to 28X earnings than there is downside potential, so when we combine the technical picture with the fundamentals - including this valuation - I cannot see any path other than a bullish one for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的增长轨迹，以及由于供应链问题，我们应该会看到 2021 财年的一些被压抑的需求转移到 2022 财年，我认为这个估值相当有吸引力。事实上，我认为 28 倍市盈率的上行潜力比下行潜力大得多，因此当我们将技术面与基本面（包括这个估值）结合起来时，我看不到除了看涨之外的任何路径苹果。</blockquote></p><p> I'm certainly no Apple perma-bull, but when I objectively evaluate this company's prospects and the outlook for the stock, I can only reach one conclusion: it's a buy on its way to new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>我当然不是苹果的永久看涨者，但当我客观评估这家公司的前景和股票前景时，我只能得出一个结论：这是在创下历史新高的过程中买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy<blockquote>苹果股票：这是您购买的机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: Here's Your Chance To Buy<blockquote>苹果股票：这是您购买的机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 20:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>AAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.</li> <li>The company's fundamentals continue to improve in a variety of ways, and supply chain issues are just noise.</li> <li>The stock is a buy and I believe will make new all-time highs in the relatively near future.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eee640d38ca964a8a25d978d1f858293\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AleksandarNakic/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AAPL已经回到了强有力的价格支撑，我相信它会从这里开始走高。</li><li>该公司的基本面以多种方式持续改善，供应链问题只是噪音。</li><li>该股值得买入，我相信在不久的将来会创下历史新高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AleksandarNakic/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The selloff that took place last Friday was certainly unexpected. A new COVID variant is never a good thing - for a variety of reasons - and the market sold first and asked questions later. The good news is that selling created some great entry points on leading stocks, and in this article, I'll update my views on technology mothership <b>Apple</b>(AAPL), which I believe just hit very strong support, and is now ready for a run to a new all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>上周五发生的抛售当然出乎意料。出于各种原因，新的COVID变体从来都不是一件好事，市场先出售，后提出问题。好消息是，抛售在领先股票上创造了一些很好的切入点，在本文中，我将更新我对技术母舰的看法<b>苹果</b>（AAPL），我相信它刚刚获得了非常强劲的支撑，现在已经准备好创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Apple has been a model portfolio stock in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service,<i>Timely Trader</i>, since the service's inception, and by all evidence, appears poised to maintain its position. The portfolio is re-evaluated every month to ensure our capital is deployed effectively, and Apple continues to make the cut. Below I'll explain why the noise around the supply chain is just that, and why the stock has positioned itself for continued highs into 2022.</p><p><blockquote>苹果一直是我的 Seeking Alpha Marketplace 服务中的示范投资组合股票，<i>及时交易者</i>自该服务成立以来，所有证据都表明，它似乎准备保持其地位。投资组合每个月都会重新评估，以确保我们的资本得到有效部署，苹果继续削减。下面我将解释为什么供应链周围的噪音就是这样，以及为什么该股将自己定位为在 2022 年持续高位。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a005c1e28b33227395e295eb4d3ac6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"812\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We'll take a brief look at the chart, because I think this pretty clearly illustrates why Apple is a buy right now. First, the stock made a new all-time high earlier this month on very heavy volume, which is a bullish trait. It means buyers were out in force while the share price was rising, indicating a lot of market participation with the new high. That coincided with a new high in the accumulation/distribution line, which measures whether the stock is finishing nearer to the high or low for the day. A higher A/D line means buyers are active during the day, and is another bullish trait; Apple is exhibiting this as well.</p><p><blockquote>我们将简要看一下图表，因为我认为这非常清楚地说明了为什么苹果现在值得买入。首先，该股本月早些时候以非常大的成交量创下历史新高，这是一个看涨特征。这意味着当股价上涨时，买家大量涌出，表明市场参与度创下新高。这与累积/分配线的新高相吻合，该线衡量股票是接近当天的高点还是低点。较高的A/D线意味着买家在白天很活跃，是另一个看涨特征；苹果也在展示这个。</blockquote></p><p> The stock was overbought during the rally - as measured by the 14-day RSI - but has since pulled back meaningfully during this consolidation. That's completely expected and totally fine, as it means the bulls can now make another run higher. And finally, the PPO is in very bullish territory, and is continuing to move higher, so I see no issues with momentum despite the recent pullback.</p><p><blockquote>根据 14 天 RSI 指标衡量，该股在反弹期间被超买，但此后在这次盘整期间大幅回调。这完全在意料之中，也完全没问题，因为这意味着多头现在可以再次走高。最后，PPO 处于非常看涨的区域，并且继续走高，因此尽管最近有所回调，但我认为动量没有问题。</blockquote></p><p> In short, Apple's chart looks great, and with support at ~$157, which was the prior breakout level, as well as the rising 20-day EMA (in red above), I see a lot of reasons to be bullish today.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，苹果的图表看起来很棒，支撑位约为 157 美元，这是之前的突破水平，以及上升的 20 日均线（上图红色），我看到了今天看涨的很多理由。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's take a look at the fundamental case for Apple, which I think remains as strong as it has ever been.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看苹果的基本情况，我认为它仍然一如既往地强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ignore the noise, Apple is still dominant</b></p><p><blockquote><b>忽略噪音，苹果仍然占主导地位</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's Q4 earnings showed a rare revenue miss and profit number that was only in line with expectations, which is quite unusual for this juggernaut. However, as we all know, Apple and others are being heavily impacted by supply chain woes that have absolutely taken over the conversation when it comes to the economy in recent months. Apple, like any other manufacturer, needs its supply chain to be functioning at full speed in order to maximize revenue, but these things are largely out of its control. Apple suffered for that in Q4, but instead of focusing on the report itself, which you can read all about in a variety of places, let's look at how Apple may respond in the fiscal year that just began.</p><p><blockquote>苹果第四季度财报显示了罕见的收入低于预期，利润数据仅符合预期，这对于这家巨头来说是相当不寻常的。然而，众所周知，苹果和其他国家正受到供应链困境的严重影响，近几个月来，当谈到经济时，供应链困境绝对占据了话题。与任何其他制造商一样，苹果需要其供应链全速运转，以实现收入最大化，但这些事情在很大程度上超出了其控制范围。苹果在第四季度因此遭受了损失，但与其关注报告本身（您可以在各种地方阅读所有相关内容），不如让我们看看苹果在刚刚开始的财年可能会如何应对。</blockquote></p><p> There is evidence to suggest that Apple's supply chain issues that negatively impacted the fourth quarter, and indeed, October as well, are abating. Keep in mind that Apple's suppliers have massive incentives to keep their components flowing to Apple to make phones and other devices, so there are literally thousands of people across the world working to address Apple's supply chain issues. With the iPhone 13 cycle ramping up, and China showing strong demand for Apple products once again, all looks well.</p><p><blockquote>有证据表明，对第四季度乃至 10 月份产生负面影响的苹果供应链问题正在消退。请记住，苹果的供应商有巨大的激励措施来保持他们的零部件流向苹果制造手机和其他设备，因此全世界有成千上万的人致力于解决苹果的供应链问题。随着iPhone 13周期的加速，以及中国大陆对苹果产品的强劲需求再次显示出，一切看起来都很好。</blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind also that selling the stock because Apple cannot keep up with demand is a bit counterintuitive. Generally, you want to sell stocks that have too much supply and not enough demand; Apple has the opposite problem, which indicates two things. First, pricing power should remain quite strong given the demand/supply imbalance, and second, when supply does catch up to demand, we'll see higher volumes at strong prices. Why would you sell a stock with these characteristics?</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，因为苹果无法满足需求而出售股票有点违反直觉。一般情况下，你要卖出供应过多而需求不足的股票；苹果有相反的问题，这表明了两件事。首先，鉴于供需不平衡，定价权应该保持相当强，其次，当供应赶上需求时，我们将看到价格强劲的更高数量。你为什么要出售具有这些特征的股票？</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's take a look at revenue estimates to see how analysts see Apple moving forward given the supply chain issues are well-known.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们来看看收入预测，看看鉴于供应链问题众所周知，分析师如何看待苹果的发展。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4ee0e69bc003794d9ef8a801403a88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see that Apple's estimates continue to move up and to the right, although one could argue the pace of increases has slowed. That's okay, because the important thing is that we continue to see higher and higher revenue estimates for the years to come. I'd also offer that Apple has generally performed quite well against revenue estimates, which is why Q4's revenue miss took people by surprise. I'll reiterate the revenue miss was due to supply chain issues outside of the company's control, and therefore shouldn't be blown out of proportion; it's transitory.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，苹果的估计继续向上和向右移动，尽管有人可能会说增长的速度已经放缓。没关系，因为重要的是我们将继续看到未来几年越来越高的收入预期。我还想说，与收入预期相比，苹果的表现总体上相当不错，这就是为什么第四季度的收入低迷让人们感到惊讶。我重申，收入损失是由于公司无法控制的供应链问题造成的，因此不应被夸大；这是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Now, another key to the bull thesis is that Apple's margins are <i>flying</i>, which we can see below. I've plotted trailing-twelve-months revenue and operating margins to illustrate how operating leverage is working for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>现在，牛市论点的另一个关键是苹果的利润率是<i>飞行</i>我们可以在下面看到。我绘制了过去 12 个月的收入和营业利润率，以说明运营杠杆如何为苹果发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbaba8826e257af5666c27d29b2f18cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue on a TTM basis was actually pretty flat for a couple of years, but in the past handful of quarters, has flown higher. With that, operating margins have moved significantly higher as well, with the September 2020 quarter posting 24% operating margins, while this year's September quarter posting TTM margins of 30%. That's a 25% increase in the amount of profit per dollar of revenue Apple produces, which is enormous to say the least. And as we'll see in just a moment, those gains look set to continue.</p><p><blockquote>按 TTM 计算的收入实际上在几年内相当持平，但在过去几个季度中，收入有所上升。因此，营业利润率也大幅上升，2020 年 9 月季度的营业利润率为 24%，而今年 9 月季度的 TTM 利润率为 30%。这意味着苹果每美元收入的利润增加了 25%，至少可以说是巨大的。正如我们稍后将看到的那样，这些收益看起来将继续下去。</blockquote></p><p> Below we have TTM gross margins and SG&A costs, which are the two main components of operating margins, to illustrate how Apple has achieved its profitability gains.</p><p><blockquote>下面我们列出了营业利润率的两个主要组成部分 TTM 毛利率和 SG&A 成本，以说明苹果如何实现盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af4bc2b49806742ed776ba5e76577543\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SG&A costs have declined from just over 7% of revenue to only 6% of revenue as of the most recent quarter, while gross margins are up from ~38% to ~42% in the same period. That means Apple is gaining on both sides of the equation, showing strong margins through pricing power, and reducing relative costs to produce revenue. This is how Apple has managed to boost profitability so much in the past few quarters, and it all hinges upon higher revenue.</p><p><blockquote>截至最近一个季度，SG&A 成本已从收入的 7% 多一点下降到仅占收入的 6%，而同期毛利率则从约 38% 上升到约 42%。这意味着苹果在等式的两边都有所收获，通过定价权显示出强劲的利润率，并降低产生收入的相对成本。这就是苹果在过去几个季度中如何大幅提高盈利能力，而这一切都取决于更高的收入。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that so long as revenue is rising, we should see steady or higher gross margins, and lower SG&A costs. These things combine to create higher profitability per dollar of revenue, so we get this supercharged impact on earnings growth where revenue is higher, and the profit per dollar is higher. If you're an Apple bull, you want to keep your eye on revenue because it's driving everything.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，只要收入上升，我们应该会看到稳定或更高的毛利率，以及更低的SG&A成本。这些因素结合起来创造了更高的每美元收入盈利能力，因此当收入更高、每美元利润更高时，我们会对盈利增长产生更大的影响。如果你是苹果多头，你会想关注收入，因为它是一切的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> Switching gears, Apple has been a very strong returner of capital in recent years, and that is no different today. The dividend is pretty small and meaningless at this point, but the company's efforts to reduce the float are anything but.</p><p><blockquote>换个角度来看，苹果近年来一直是一个非常强劲的资本回报者，今天也不例外。目前股息相当小，毫无意义，但该公司减少流通股的努力却远非如此。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02926f966d571a5d9af3865b5534bd75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We can see the share count is<i>36% lower</i>than it was in 2012, which means that on a per-share basis, Apple's earnings are worth 36% more than they otherwise would be. Apple has far more cash than it could ever profitably reinvest in the business, and it produces more and more every year. That means we'll almost certainly see this continue to dwindle, providing a constant tailwind to EPS every year.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到股份数量是<i>降低36%</i>比 2012 年高出 36%，这意味着按每股计算，苹果的收益比其他情况下高出 36%。苹果拥有的现金远远超过了它在该业务中能够盈利的再投资，而且它每年的产量越来越多。这意味着我们几乎肯定会看到这种情况继续减少，每年为每股收益提供持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p> We therefore have ever-rising revenue, rising margins, and a lower share count, all of which support higher EPS. It is no surprise then that Apple's EPS revisions look the way they do.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的收入不断增长，利润率不断上升，股票数量不断减少，所有这些都支持更高的每股收益。因此，苹果的每股收益修订看起来是这样也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b562a3b59264989d5077b069db4633ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This is exactly what you want to see, and it's the product of a company that continues to outperform expectations, intelligently return capital to shareholders, and continue to create and market world-class products that consumers cannot get enough of.</p><p><blockquote>这正是您希望看到的，而且它是一家公司的产品，该公司持续超出预期，明智地将资本返还给股东，并继续创造和营销消费者爱不释手的世界级产品。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation reset creates a buying chance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值重置创造买入机会</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, we all know valuations are stretched in a lot of places for a lot of different stocks, and Apple is no different. We can see below that its forward PE is 28X today, versus a three-year average of 23X. However, it's well off its high of 37X, and I'd argue that given its acceleration of revenue and margins, Apple should be more highly valued than it was in the past three years. The simple fact is that the company's earnings stream has improved greatly, so why shouldn't the valuation?</p><p><blockquote>现在，我们都知道许多不同股票的估值在很多地方都被拉长了，苹果也不例外。我们可以在下面看到，其远期市盈率目前为 28 倍，而三年平均水平为 23 倍。然而，它远远低于 37 倍的高点，我认为，鉴于其收入和利润率的加速增长，苹果的估值应该比过去三年更高。简单的事实是，公司的收入流已经有了很大的改善，那么为什么估值不应该呢？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3375c0e3b0081634279d2f828195612\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TIKR.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TIKR.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the company's growth trajectory, and including the fact that we should see some pent-up demand from fiscal 2021 moved into fiscal 2022 due to supply chain issues, I see this valuation as quite enticing. In fact, I think there's a lot more upside potential to 28X earnings than there is downside potential, so when we combine the technical picture with the fundamentals - including this valuation - I cannot see any path other than a bullish one for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该公司的增长轨迹，以及由于供应链问题，我们应该会看到 2021 财年的一些被压抑的需求转移到 2022 财年，我认为这个估值相当有吸引力。事实上，我认为 28 倍市盈率的上行潜力比下行潜力大得多，因此当我们将技术面与基本面（包括这个估值）结合起来时，我看不到除了看涨之外的任何路径苹果。</blockquote></p><p> I'm certainly no Apple perma-bull, but when I objectively evaluate this company's prospects and the outlook for the stock, I can only reach one conclusion: it's a buy on its way to new all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>我当然不是苹果的永久看涨者，但当我客观评估这家公司的前景和股票前景时，我只能得出一个结论：这是在创下历史新高的过程中买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472312-apple-heres-your-chance\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472312-apple-heres-your-chance","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183198352","content_text":"Summary\n\nAAPL has returned to strong price support, and I believe it will turn higher from here.\nThe company's fundamentals continue to improve in a variety of ways, and supply chain issues are just noise.\nThe stock is a buy and I believe will make new all-time highs in the relatively near future.\n\nAleksandarNakic/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe selloff that took place last Friday was certainly unexpected. A new COVID variant is never a good thing - for a variety of reasons - and the market sold first and asked questions later. The good news is that selling created some great entry points on leading stocks, and in this article, I'll update my views on technology mothership Apple(AAPL), which I believe just hit very strong support, and is now ready for a run to a new all-time high.\nApple has been a model portfolio stock in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service,Timely Trader, since the service's inception, and by all evidence, appears poised to maintain its position. The portfolio is re-evaluated every month to ensure our capital is deployed effectively, and Apple continues to make the cut. Below I'll explain why the noise around the supply chain is just that, and why the stock has positioned itself for continued highs into 2022.\n\nWe'll take a brief look at the chart, because I think this pretty clearly illustrates why Apple is a buy right now. First, the stock made a new all-time high earlier this month on very heavy volume, which is a bullish trait. It means buyers were out in force while the share price was rising, indicating a lot of market participation with the new high. That coincided with a new high in the accumulation/distribution line, which measures whether the stock is finishing nearer to the high or low for the day. A higher A/D line means buyers are active during the day, and is another bullish trait; Apple is exhibiting this as well.\nThe stock was overbought during the rally - as measured by the 14-day RSI - but has since pulled back meaningfully during this consolidation. That's completely expected and totally fine, as it means the bulls can now make another run higher. And finally, the PPO is in very bullish territory, and is continuing to move higher, so I see no issues with momentum despite the recent pullback.\nIn short, Apple's chart looks great, and with support at ~$157, which was the prior breakout level, as well as the rising 20-day EMA (in red above), I see a lot of reasons to be bullish today.\nNow, let's take a look at the fundamental case for Apple, which I think remains as strong as it has ever been.\nIgnore the noise, Apple is still dominant\nApple's Q4 earnings showed a rare revenue miss and profit number that was only in line with expectations, which is quite unusual for this juggernaut. However, as we all know, Apple and others are being heavily impacted by supply chain woes that have absolutely taken over the conversation when it comes to the economy in recent months. Apple, like any other manufacturer, needs its supply chain to be functioning at full speed in order to maximize revenue, but these things are largely out of its control. Apple suffered for that in Q4, but instead of focusing on the report itself, which you can read all about in a variety of places, let's look at how Apple may respond in the fiscal year that just began.\nThere is evidence to suggest that Apple's supply chain issues that negatively impacted the fourth quarter, and indeed, October as well, are abating. Keep in mind that Apple's suppliers have massive incentives to keep their components flowing to Apple to make phones and other devices, so there are literally thousands of people across the world working to address Apple's supply chain issues. With the iPhone 13 cycle ramping up, and China showing strong demand for Apple products once again, all looks well.\nKeep in mind also that selling the stock because Apple cannot keep up with demand is a bit counterintuitive. Generally, you want to sell stocks that have too much supply and not enough demand; Apple has the opposite problem, which indicates two things. First, pricing power should remain quite strong given the demand/supply imbalance, and second, when supply does catch up to demand, we'll see higher volumes at strong prices. Why would you sell a stock with these characteristics?\nNow, let's take a look at revenue estimates to see how analysts see Apple moving forward given the supply chain issues are well-known.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWe can see that Apple's estimates continue to move up and to the right, although one could argue the pace of increases has slowed. That's okay, because the important thing is that we continue to see higher and higher revenue estimates for the years to come. I'd also offer that Apple has generally performed quite well against revenue estimates, which is why Q4's revenue miss took people by surprise. I'll reiterate the revenue miss was due to supply chain issues outside of the company's control, and therefore shouldn't be blown out of proportion; it's transitory.\nNow, another key to the bull thesis is that Apple's margins are flying, which we can see below. I've plotted trailing-twelve-months revenue and operating margins to illustrate how operating leverage is working for Apple.\nSource: TIKR.com\nRevenue on a TTM basis was actually pretty flat for a couple of years, but in the past handful of quarters, has flown higher. With that, operating margins have moved significantly higher as well, with the September 2020 quarter posting 24% operating margins, while this year's September quarter posting TTM margins of 30%. That's a 25% increase in the amount of profit per dollar of revenue Apple produces, which is enormous to say the least. And as we'll see in just a moment, those gains look set to continue.\nBelow we have TTM gross margins and SG&A costs, which are the two main components of operating margins, to illustrate how Apple has achieved its profitability gains.\nSource: TIKR.com\nSG&A costs have declined from just over 7% of revenue to only 6% of revenue as of the most recent quarter, while gross margins are up from ~38% to ~42% in the same period. That means Apple is gaining on both sides of the equation, showing strong margins through pricing power, and reducing relative costs to produce revenue. This is how Apple has managed to boost profitability so much in the past few quarters, and it all hinges upon higher revenue.\nThe bottom line is that so long as revenue is rising, we should see steady or higher gross margins, and lower SG&A costs. These things combine to create higher profitability per dollar of revenue, so we get this supercharged impact on earnings growth where revenue is higher, and the profit per dollar is higher. If you're an Apple bull, you want to keep your eye on revenue because it's driving everything.\nSwitching gears, Apple has been a very strong returner of capital in recent years, and that is no different today. The dividend is pretty small and meaningless at this point, but the company's efforts to reduce the float are anything but.\nSource: TIKR.com\nWe can see the share count is36% lowerthan it was in 2012, which means that on a per-share basis, Apple's earnings are worth 36% more than they otherwise would be. Apple has far more cash than it could ever profitably reinvest in the business, and it produces more and more every year. That means we'll almost certainly see this continue to dwindle, providing a constant tailwind to EPS every year.\nWe therefore have ever-rising revenue, rising margins, and a lower share count, all of which support higher EPS. It is no surprise then that Apple's EPS revisions look the way they do.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nThis is exactly what you want to see, and it's the product of a company that continues to outperform expectations, intelligently return capital to shareholders, and continue to create and market world-class products that consumers cannot get enough of.\nValuation reset creates a buying chance\nNow, we all know valuations are stretched in a lot of places for a lot of different stocks, and Apple is no different. We can see below that its forward PE is 28X today, versus a three-year average of 23X. However, it's well off its high of 37X, and I'd argue that given its acceleration of revenue and margins, Apple should be more highly valued than it was in the past three years. The simple fact is that the company's earnings stream has improved greatly, so why shouldn't the valuation?\nSource: TIKR.com\nGiven the company's growth trajectory, and including the fact that we should see some pent-up demand from fiscal 2021 moved into fiscal 2022 due to supply chain issues, I see this valuation as quite enticing. In fact, I think there's a lot more upside potential to 28X earnings than there is downside potential, so when we combine the technical picture with the fundamentals - including this valuation - I cannot see any path other than a bullish one for Apple.\nI'm certainly no Apple perma-bull, but when I objectively evaluate this company's prospects and the outlook for the stock, I can only reach one conclusion: it's a buy on its way to new all-time highs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1065,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/609691620"}
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