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2021-11-30
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Wall Street Dip Buyers Defy Omicron Inflation Risk at Their Own Peril<blockquote>华尔街逢低买家无视奥密克戎通胀风险,后果自负</blockquote>
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Treasuries slumped, sending yields higher, while oil jumped.</p><p><blockquote>由于新的旅行禁令迫在眉睫,人们对传播的担忧甚嚣尘上,标普500指数在周五创下九个月来的最大跌幅后,开盘反弹超过 1%。美国国债暴跌,导致收益率走高,而油价则上涨。</blockquote></p><p> To the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Wealth Management, it all makes sense -- they reckon bad virus news has some good news for markets as the variant assuages fears of monetary tightening. But strategists at Capital Economics and Mizuho International are among those urging caution as rising cases may worsen inflation, keeping policy makers on track to cut stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>对于高盛集团 (Goldman Sachs Group Inc.) 和瑞银财富管理公司 (UBS Wealth Management) 等公司来说,这一切都是有道理的——他们认为,随着病毒变种缓解了对货币紧缩的担忧,坏消息给市场带来了一些好消息。但凯投宏观 (Capital Economics) 和瑞穗国际 (Mizuho International) 的策略师等人敦促谨慎,因为病例不断增加可能会加剧通胀,使政策制定者继续削减刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “I know, I know, ‘U.S. equities only go up’ etc,” wrote Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho. “Monetary tightening is a structural downside risk to equities, and it may coincide with weaker growth in Q1.”</p><p><blockquote>“瑞穗多资产策略主管彼得-查特韦尔(Peter Chatwell)写道:”我知道,我知道,'美国股市只会上涨'等等。“货币紧缩对股市来说是一种结构性下行风险,而且可能与第一季度增长疲软同时发生。”</blockquote></p><p> While mild omicron symptoms and news of rapid vaccine reformulations are offering some relief Monday, European policy makers were already tightening rules to fight another wave of infections even before the mutation was discovered in southern Africa late last week.</p><p><blockquote>虽然轻微的奥密克戎症状和快速疫苗配方的消息在周一提供了一些缓解,但欧洲政策制定者甚至在上周晚些时候在南部非洲发现突变之前就已经在收紧规则,以抗击另一波感染。</blockquote></p><p> The sharp risk-off session Friday, exacerbated by thin liquidity after the Thanksgiving holiday, was a sign of investors’ sensitivity to any bad headlines, with their pockets already thickly lined from the S&P 500’s 24% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote>感恩节假期后流动性稀缺加剧了周五的大幅避险交易,这表明投资者对任何不良头条新闻都很敏感,标普500今年 24% 的涨幅已经让他们的口袋里充满了厚厚的资金。</blockquote></p><p> While corporations have managed to deliver a sharp profit recovery in 2021, stock valuations are elevated historically: The U.S. benchmark is trading at 21 times the next year’s earnings, compared with 18 at the end of 2019 and a decade average of close to 17.</p><p><blockquote>虽然企业在 2021 年实现了利润的大幅复苏,但股票估值却处于历史高位: 美国基准股票的市盈率是明年市盈率的 21 倍,而 2019 年底为 18 倍,十年平均水平接近 17 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Whether that multiple counts as stretched will largely depend on the monetary trajectory. And since omicron hit the headlines, money-market traders have pushed back expectations for global rate hikes, market-derived inflation expectations have fallen and oil has plunged.</p><p><blockquote>多重计数是否捉襟见肘将在很大程度上取决于货币轨迹。自奥密克戎成为头条新闻以来,货币市场交易员推低了全球加息预期,市场衍生的通胀预期下降,油价暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> All that is a sign markets are pricing in a drop in demand from the new variant, which may prompt central banks to slow their tightening.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明市场正在消化新变体带来的需求下降,这可能会促使央行放缓紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> “Ironically, it may be the omicron scare itself that now creates the best possibility of some relief over the period, either because incoming news about the variant is better than feared or because monetary policy makers take a somewhat more cautious stance in response to the news,” wrote Dominic Wilson at Goldman.</p><p><blockquote>“高盛(Goldman)的多米尼克-威尔逊(Dominic Wilson)写道:”具有讽刺意味的是,现在可能是奥密克戎恐慌本身为这一时期创造了一些缓解的最佳可能性,要么是因为有关变异的消息比担心的要好,要么是因为货币政策制定者在应对这一消息时采取了更加谨慎的立场。</blockquote></p><p> At UBS’s wealth-management unit, a team led by chief investment officer Mark Haefele is telling clients to stay invested with the base case of robust economic growth intact and any concerns only likely to reduce monetary-tightening fears. At Nordea Investment Funds, senior macro strategist Sebastien Galy calls it a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>在瑞银的财富管理部门,由首席投资官马克-海菲尔(Mark Haefele)领导的团队告诉客户,在经济强劲增长的基本假设不变的情况下,以及任何可能减少货币紧缩担忧的担忧,继续投资。在 Nordea Investment Funds,高级宏观策略师 Sebastien Galy 评级,这是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> After a spike in volatility like the VIX’s 10-point jump Friday, stocks usually stage “robust reversals,” writes Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, in a Monday note.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)首席美国股票策略师乔纳森-戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)在周一的一份报告中写道,在经历了周五 VIX 指数大涨 10 点等波动性飙升之后,股市通常会出现 “强劲反转”。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the policy response function may be less clear-cut than it was in the first all-hands-on-deck phase of the pandemic. Last year’s experience underscored the risk that if consumers shift their spending toward goods amid supply-chain bottlenecks, renewed virus anxieties can actually be inflationary.</p><p><blockquote>然而,政策响应功能可能不如大流行第一个全员参与阶段那么明确。去年的经验凸显了这样一种风险:如果消费者在供应链瓶颈的情况下将支出转向商品,那么对病毒的新焦虑实际上可能会导致通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> New infections may also temporarily shrink the labor force, suggests Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观 (Capital Economics) 首席经济学家尼尔·希林 (Neil Shearing) 表示,新的感染也可能暂时减少劳动力。</blockquote></p><p> “Compared to previous waves of the virus, which were on balance disinflationary, a major new wave could now be inflationary,” he wrote in a note. “All of this further complicates an already-complex policy challenge.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一份说明中写道:”与之前的病毒浪潮总体上是通货紧缩相比,现在的新一波重大病毒浪潮可能会导致通货膨胀。“所有这些都使本已复杂的政策挑战变得更加复杂”。</blockquote></p><p> It’s a big shift from a week ago, when investors were largely preoccupied with the rate outlook based on the pace of the U.S. recovery. An index for economic surprises only this month returned to positive territory, as payrolls and retail sales expanded faster than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这与一周前相比有了很大的转变,当时投资者主要关注的是基于美国经济复苏步伐的利率前景。由于就业和零售销售增长速度快于预期,经济意外指数本月才重返正值。</blockquote></p><p> But for investors giddy after the 66 record highs notched by the S&P 500 this year, an intensifying Covid risk is hard to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>但对于今年标普500创下 66 个历史新高后感到头晕目眩的投资者来说,日益加剧的新冠风险很难忽视。</blockquote></p><p> “I am not too positive on the situation as the cause of the selloff was the new variant, but it is also worth considering that the number of infections levels in Europe were unfortunately increasing anyway,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “We will need more data before we will be able to judge.”</p><p><blockquote>“Kairos Partners 的投资组合经理阿尔贝托-托基奥(Alberto Tocchio)说:”我对这种情况不太乐观,因为抛售的原因是新变种,但同样值得考虑的是,欧洲的感染水平无论如何都在不幸地增加。“在我们做出判断之前,我们需要更多的数据”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Dip Buyers Defy Omicron Inflation Risk at Their Own Peril<blockquote>华尔街逢低买家无视奥密克戎通胀风险,后果自负</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Dip Buyers Defy Omicron Inflation Risk at Their Own Peril<blockquote>华尔街逢低买家无视奥密克戎通胀风险,后果自负</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 09:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- If there’s any lesson for Wall Street in the pandemic era, it’s this: Every selloff has proved a big opportunity to buy the dip in a world of activist central banks and limitless risk appetite.</p><p><blockquote>(彭博社)--如果说华尔街在大流行病时代有什么教训的话,那就是: 在一个央行激进、风险偏好无限的世界里,每一次抛售都是逢低买入的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the Monday rally as the omicron variant spreads will test the resolve of investors who thought they’d seen it all in the Covid roller coaster.</p><p><blockquote>然而,周一奥密克戎变体价差的反弹将考验投资者的决心,他们认为自己已经在科维德的过山车中看到了这一切。</blockquote></p><p> With fresh travel bans looming and transmission fears rife, the S&P 500 rallied more than 1% at the open after the index’s worst drop in nine months Friday. Treasuries slumped, sending yields higher, while oil jumped.</p><p><blockquote>由于新的旅行禁令迫在眉睫,人们对传播的担忧甚嚣尘上,标普500指数在周五创下九个月来的最大跌幅后,开盘反弹超过 1%。美国国债暴跌,导致收益率走高,而油价则上涨。</blockquote></p><p> To the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Wealth Management, it all makes sense -- they reckon bad virus news has some good news for markets as the variant assuages fears of monetary tightening. But strategists at Capital Economics and Mizuho International are among those urging caution as rising cases may worsen inflation, keeping policy makers on track to cut stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>对于高盛集团 (Goldman Sachs Group Inc.) 和瑞银财富管理公司 (UBS Wealth Management) 等公司来说,这一切都是有道理的——他们认为,随着病毒变种缓解了对货币紧缩的担忧,坏消息给市场带来了一些好消息。但凯投宏观 (Capital Economics) 和瑞穗国际 (Mizuho International) 的策略师等人敦促谨慎,因为病例不断增加可能会加剧通胀,使政策制定者继续削减刺激措施。</blockquote></p><p> “I know, I know, ‘U.S. equities only go up’ etc,” wrote Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho. “Monetary tightening is a structural downside risk to equities, and it may coincide with weaker growth in Q1.”</p><p><blockquote>“瑞穗多资产策略主管彼得-查特韦尔(Peter Chatwell)写道:”我知道,我知道,'美国股市只会上涨'等等。“货币紧缩对股市来说是一种结构性下行风险,而且可能与第一季度增长疲软同时发生。”</blockquote></p><p> While mild omicron symptoms and news of rapid vaccine reformulations are offering some relief Monday, European policy makers were already tightening rules to fight another wave of infections even before the mutation was discovered in southern Africa late last week.</p><p><blockquote>虽然轻微的奥密克戎症状和快速疫苗配方的消息在周一提供了一些缓解,但欧洲政策制定者甚至在上周晚些时候在南部非洲发现突变之前就已经在收紧规则,以抗击另一波感染。</blockquote></p><p> The sharp risk-off session Friday, exacerbated by thin liquidity after the Thanksgiving holiday, was a sign of investors’ sensitivity to any bad headlines, with their pockets already thickly lined from the S&P 500’s 24% gain this year.</p><p><blockquote>感恩节假期后流动性稀缺加剧了周五的大幅避险交易,这表明投资者对任何不良头条新闻都很敏感,标普500今年 24% 的涨幅已经让他们的口袋里充满了厚厚的资金。</blockquote></p><p> While corporations have managed to deliver a sharp profit recovery in 2021, stock valuations are elevated historically: The U.S. benchmark is trading at 21 times the next year’s earnings, compared with 18 at the end of 2019 and a decade average of close to 17.</p><p><blockquote>虽然企业在 2021 年实现了利润的大幅复苏,但股票估值却处于历史高位: 美国基准股票的市盈率是明年市盈率的 21 倍,而 2019 年底为 18 倍,十年平均水平接近 17 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Whether that multiple counts as stretched will largely depend on the monetary trajectory. And since omicron hit the headlines, money-market traders have pushed back expectations for global rate hikes, market-derived inflation expectations have fallen and oil has plunged.</p><p><blockquote>多重计数是否捉襟见肘将在很大程度上取决于货币轨迹。自奥密克戎成为头条新闻以来,货币市场交易员推低了全球加息预期,市场衍生的通胀预期下降,油价暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> All that is a sign markets are pricing in a drop in demand from the new variant, which may prompt central banks to slow their tightening.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都表明市场正在消化新变体带来的需求下降,这可能会促使央行放缓紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> “Ironically, it may be the omicron scare itself that now creates the best possibility of some relief over the period, either because incoming news about the variant is better than feared or because monetary policy makers take a somewhat more cautious stance in response to the news,” wrote Dominic Wilson at Goldman.</p><p><blockquote>“高盛(Goldman)的多米尼克-威尔逊(Dominic Wilson)写道:”具有讽刺意味的是,现在可能是奥密克戎恐慌本身为这一时期创造了一些缓解的最佳可能性,要么是因为有关变异的消息比担心的要好,要么是因为货币政策制定者在应对这一消息时采取了更加谨慎的立场。</blockquote></p><p> At UBS’s wealth-management unit, a team led by chief investment officer Mark Haefele is telling clients to stay invested with the base case of robust economic growth intact and any concerns only likely to reduce monetary-tightening fears. At Nordea Investment Funds, senior macro strategist Sebastien Galy calls it a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>在瑞银的财富管理部门,由首席投资官马克-海菲尔(Mark Haefele)领导的团队告诉客户,在经济强劲增长的基本假设不变的情况下,以及任何可能减少货币紧缩担忧的担忧,继续投资。在 Nordea Investment Funds,高级宏观策略师 Sebastien Galy 评级,这是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> After a spike in volatility like the VIX’s 10-point jump Friday, stocks usually stage “robust reversals,” writes Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, in a Monday note.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)首席美国股票策略师乔纳森-戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)在周一的一份报告中写道,在经历了周五 VIX 指数大涨 10 点等波动性飙升之后,股市通常会出现 “强劲反转”。</blockquote></p><p> Yet the policy response function may be less clear-cut than it was in the first all-hands-on-deck phase of the pandemic. Last year’s experience underscored the risk that if consumers shift their spending toward goods amid supply-chain bottlenecks, renewed virus anxieties can actually be inflationary.</p><p><blockquote>然而,政策响应功能可能不如大流行第一个全员参与阶段那么明确。去年的经验凸显了这样一种风险:如果消费者在供应链瓶颈的情况下将支出转向商品,那么对病毒的新焦虑实际上可能会导致通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> New infections may also temporarily shrink the labor force, suggests Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.</p><p><blockquote>凯投宏观 (Capital Economics) 首席经济学家尼尔·希林 (Neil Shearing) 表示,新的感染也可能暂时减少劳动力。</blockquote></p><p> “Compared to previous waves of the virus, which were on balance disinflationary, a major new wave could now be inflationary,” he wrote in a note. “All of this further complicates an already-complex policy challenge.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一份说明中写道:”与之前的病毒浪潮总体上是通货紧缩相比,现在的新一波重大病毒浪潮可能会导致通货膨胀。“所有这些都使本已复杂的政策挑战变得更加复杂”。</blockquote></p><p> It’s a big shift from a week ago, when investors were largely preoccupied with the rate outlook based on the pace of the U.S. recovery. An index for economic surprises only this month returned to positive territory, as payrolls and retail sales expanded faster than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这与一周前相比有了很大的转变,当时投资者主要关注的是基于美国经济复苏步伐的利率前景。由于就业和零售销售增长速度快于预期,经济意外指数本月才重返正值。</blockquote></p><p> But for investors giddy after the 66 record highs notched by the S&P 500 this year, an intensifying Covid risk is hard to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>但对于今年标普500创下 66 个历史新高后感到头晕目眩的投资者来说,日益加剧的新冠风险很难忽视。</blockquote></p><p> “I am not too positive on the situation as the cause of the selloff was the new variant, but it is also worth considering that the number of infections levels in Europe were unfortunately increasing anyway,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “We will need more data before we will be able to judge.”</p><p><blockquote>“Kairos Partners 的投资组合经理阿尔贝托-托基奥(Alberto Tocchio)说:”我对这种情况不太乐观,因为抛售的原因是新变种,但同样值得考虑的是,欧洲的感染水平无论如何都在不幸地增加。“在我们做出判断之前,我们需要更多的数据”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-dip-buyers-defy-135337950.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-dip-buyers-defy-135337950.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105270576","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- If there’s any lesson for Wall Street in the pandemic era, it’s this: Every selloff has proved a big opportunity to buy the dip in a world of activist central banks and limitless risk appetite.\nYet the Monday rally as the omicron variant spreads will test the resolve of investors who thought they’d seen it all in the Covid roller coaster.\nWith fresh travel bans looming and transmission fears rife, the S&P 500 rallied more than 1% at the open after the index’s worst drop in nine months Friday. Treasuries slumped, sending yields higher, while oil jumped.\nTo the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Wealth Management, it all makes sense -- they reckon bad virus news has some good news for markets as the variant assuages fears of monetary tightening. But strategists at Capital Economics and Mizuho International are among those urging caution as rising cases may worsen inflation, keeping policy makers on track to cut stimulus.\n“I know, I know, ‘U.S. equities only go up’ etc,” wrote Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho. “Monetary tightening is a structural downside risk to equities, and it may coincide with weaker growth in Q1.”\nWhile mild omicron symptoms and news of rapid vaccine reformulations are offering some relief Monday, European policy makers were already tightening rules to fight another wave of infections even before the mutation was discovered in southern Africa late last week.\nThe sharp risk-off session Friday, exacerbated by thin liquidity after the Thanksgiving holiday, was a sign of investors’ sensitivity to any bad headlines, with their pockets already thickly lined from the S&P 500’s 24% gain this year.\nWhile corporations have managed to deliver a sharp profit recovery in 2021, stock valuations are elevated historically: The U.S. benchmark is trading at 21 times the next year’s earnings, compared with 18 at the end of 2019 and a decade average of close to 17.\nWhether that multiple counts as stretched will largely depend on the monetary trajectory. And since omicron hit the headlines, money-market traders have pushed back expectations for global rate hikes, market-derived inflation expectations have fallen and oil has plunged.\nAll that is a sign markets are pricing in a drop in demand from the new variant, which may prompt central banks to slow their tightening.\n“Ironically, it may be the omicron scare itself that now creates the best possibility of some relief over the period, either because incoming news about the variant is better than feared or because monetary policy makers take a somewhat more cautious stance in response to the news,” wrote Dominic Wilson at Goldman.\nAt UBS’s wealth-management unit, a team led by chief investment officer Mark Haefele is telling clients to stay invested with the base case of robust economic growth intact and any concerns only likely to reduce monetary-tightening fears. At Nordea Investment Funds, senior macro strategist Sebastien Galy calls it a buying opportunity.\nAfter a spike in volatility like the VIX’s 10-point jump Friday, stocks usually stage “robust reversals,” writes Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, in a Monday note.\nYet the policy response function may be less clear-cut than it was in the first all-hands-on-deck phase of the pandemic. Last year’s experience underscored the risk that if consumers shift their spending toward goods amid supply-chain bottlenecks, renewed virus anxieties can actually be inflationary.\nNew infections may also temporarily shrink the labor force, suggests Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.\n“Compared to previous waves of the virus, which were on balance disinflationary, a major new wave could now be inflationary,” he wrote in a note. “All of this further complicates an already-complex policy challenge.”\nIt’s a big shift from a week ago, when investors were largely preoccupied with the rate outlook based on the pace of the U.S. recovery. An index for economic surprises only this month returned to positive territory, as payrolls and retail sales expanded faster than expected.\nBut for investors giddy after the 66 record highs notched by the S&P 500 this year, an intensifying Covid risk is hard to ignore.\n“I am not too positive on the situation as the cause of the selloff was the new variant, but it is also worth considering that the number of infections levels in Europe were unfortunately increasing anyway,” said Alberto Tocchio, a portfolio manager at Kairos Partners. “We will need more data before we will be able to judge.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3234,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/609392913"}
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