RyanT2021
2021-11-30
Sigh new variant
Is Omicron The Catalyst That Ushers In The Next Bear Market?<blockquote>奥密克戎是迎来下一个熊市的催化剂吗？</blockquote>
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The announcement of the omicron variant of the COVID virus put investors into a panic and sent the S&P 500 to its largest single day loss since February and the Russell 2000 to its largest single day loss since June of last year. The reveal of a potentially more mutated and more highly contagious version of both the original COVID strain and the delta variant brought investors back to the early days of the pandemic when businesses, schools and other groups were suddenly forced to shut down.</p><p><blockquote>本周金融市场显然只有一个话题。新冠病毒 omicron 变种的宣布让投资者陷入恐慌，并导致标普500指数创下 2 月份以来最大单日跌幅，罗素 2000 指数创下去年 6 月份以来最大单日跌幅。原始新冠病毒毒株和德尔塔变异毒株病毒的潜在变异更大、传染性更强的版本的披露，让投资者回到了疫情早期，当时企业、学校和其他团体突然被迫关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Is it going to be as big of a deal as the markets fear it might be? It’s too early to know for sure (although the South African Medical Association seems to be downplaying the severity of it), but global governments appear to be taking no chances. Several countries have shut down their borders to people from South Africa and neighboring countries. New York has already declared a state of emergency despite no reported cases of the omicron variant. Of course, there’s still much to learn about the risk level of this COVID strain, but it’s clear that nerves are a bit frayed.</p><p><blockquote>它会像市场担心的那样成为一件大事吗？现在下结论还为时过早（尽管南非医学协会似乎淡化了病情的严重性），但全球各国政府似乎并没有冒险。几个国家已经对来自南非和邻国的人关闭了边境。尽管没有奥密克戎变种病例的报告，纽约已经宣布进入紧急状态。当然，关于这种 COVID 菌株的风险水平，还有很多需要了解的地方，但很明显，人们的神经有点紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, Friday’s sharp equity pullback looks like a classic overreaction. Yes, there’s a distinct possibility that it may not be the bottom and equities could sell off further, but given how investors have been prolific dip buyers over the past year and expectations for the taper and future interest rate hikes turned immediately dovish, per the Fed Funds futures market, I think investors will quickly conclude that the omicron variant will likely not be as bad as anticipated and, even if it is, the Fed will quickly step in, whether it’s via a delayed taper or no rate hike until 2023, to support risk asset prices. If I’m going out on a limb, I think there’s a chance the S&P 500 could recapture its all-time high (it’s currently about 2.3% below it) by the end of this week.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，周五股市的大幅回调看起来像是典型的过度反应。是的，很有可能不是底部，股市可能会进一步抛售，但鉴于投资者在过去一年中一直是多产的逢低买家，而且根据联邦基金期货市场的数据，对缩减规模和未来加息的预期立即转为鸽派，我认为投资者很快就会得出结论，奥密克戎变体可能不会像预期的那样糟糕，即使是，美联储也会迅速介入，无论是通过推迟缩减规模还是在 2023 年之前不加息，以支撑风险资产价格。如果我要冒险的话，我认为标普500有可能在本周末重新夺回历史高点（目前比历史高点低约 2.3%）。</blockquote></p><p> Market internals had already been softening leading up to last week. Breadth within the Nasdaq 100 has been getting weaker - 30 of the 100 components have pulled back at least 20%. Small-caps have been underperforming for weeks and leadership has rotated away from cyclicals and back into tech and consumer discretionary. Treasuries are looking strong again and even gold has been seeing some action.</p><p><blockquote>直到上周，市场内部因素已经在走软。纳斯达克 100 指数内的广度一直在减弱 - 100 个组成部分中有 30 个已回调至少 20%。小盘股几周来表现不佳，领导层已从周期性股票转向科技股和非必需消费品。美国国债看起来再次走强，甚至黄金也出现了一些波动。</blockquote></p><p> Fear is high in the markets right now and that presents opportunity. Keep a level head and watch for panic signs (e.g. the number of articles talking about how stocks could pull back 30% from here) and words from the Fed that hint at what the central bank might do. Remember, in 2020 after the initial bear market, stocks rebounded quickly as soon as the Fed and the government stepped in. If Powell pivots to a more dovish stance, U.S. equities could quickly move higher again.</p><p><blockquote>目前市场上的恐惧情绪很高，这带来了机会。保持冷静，留意恐慌迹象（例如，谈论股市如何从这里回落 30% 的文章数量）以及美联储暗示央行可能采取什么行动的言论。请记住，2020 年，在最初的熊市之后，美联储和政府一介入，股市就迅速反弹。如果鲍威尔转向更加鸽派的立场，美国股市可能会迅速再次走高。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s start our weekly review by taking a look at the primary market sectors.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一级市场板块开始每周回顾。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87d1ba9c165a777608a551646236565\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, there’s little short-term strength in equities right now. Communication services remains the worst-looking of the 11 major sectors, but cyclicals are not that far behind. Energy stocks were down 4% on Friday as crude oil prices dropped more than 10%, but still managed to gain more than 1% on the week as a whole. Financials are weaker on falling interest rates, but industrials and materials are similarly well off recent highs.</p><p><blockquote>不出所料，目前股市短期走强乏力。通信服务仍然是 11 个主要行业中表现最差的，但周期性行业也紧随其后。能源股周五下跌 4%，原油价格下跌超过 10%，但本周整体仍上涨超过 1%。由于利率下降，金融股走弱，但工业股和材料股同样远离近期高点。</blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned above, tech and consumer discretionary have been the beneficiaries of rotation trades lately. Tech had become a steady outperformer before last week’s correction, while discretionary stocks have gained but remained volatile. Four of the 11 GICS sectors are now trading below their 50-day moving averages, which could be an indication that short-term momentum has run its course and it may be time for defensives to take over.</p><p><blockquote>正如我上面提到的，科技股和非必需消费品最近一直是轮动交易的受益者。在上周回调之前，科技股已稳步跑赢大盘，而非必需类股则有所上涨，但仍波动较大。11 个 GICS 板块中有 4 个目前交易价格低于 50 天移动平均线，这可能表明短期势头已经结束，可能是防御性板块接管的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> The performance of small-caps, Treasuries and cyclicals point to more conservative positioning even before Friday. Utilities and consumer staples did relatively better as expected, but it’s been a while since either group had an extended run. This week will be telling, I think, in determining where investor risk tolerance is really at. If omicron looks like it will keep drawing out people’s fears, there might be room for defensive sectors to perform relatively well. Keep in mind that it’ll be all about business and social restrictions. If the economic impact is limited mostly to the leisure and travel sectors, the longer-term damage could be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股、国债和周期性股票的表现表明，即使在周五之前，仓位也更加保守。公用事业和必需消费品的表现相对好于预期，但这两个板块都已经有一段时间没有出现长时间的表现了。我认为，本周将决定投资者的风险承受能力到底处于什么水平。如果奥密克戎看起来会继续引发人们的恐惧，那么防御性行业可能会有相对较好的表现。请记住，这一切都与商业和社交限制有关。如果经济影响主要局限于休闲和旅游部门，长期损害可能很小。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbc4d98c13f73357d48d25a67a1ed80e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Short-term strength has fallen pretty much across the board, but with a few exceptions. Semiconductor stocks had a rough week along with the rest of the tech sector, but they remain one of the best performing groups throughout 2021. Homebuilder stocks continue to build on the strength in the housing, which, despite some stops and starts in sales, demand and commodity prices, been pretty consistent.</p><p><blockquote>短期实力几乎全面下降，但也有少数例外。半导体股与科技行业的其他股票一样经历了艰难的一周，但它们仍然是 2021 年表现最好的股票之一。房屋建筑商股票继续建立在房地产的强势基础上，尽管销售、需求和大宗商品价格出现了一些停顿和开始，但房地产市场一直相当稳定。</blockquote></p><p> No surprise that the casino, leisure and recreation stocks are getting hit the hardest. These, of course, are the first to get hit in an environment like this. New travel restrictions are already being put in place and we’re very likely to see even more in the coming weeks. As we’ve seen with New York, there’s been little hesitation so far to put mitigation efforts in place. Oil prices and energy demand forecasts have taken a hit adding to the pressure.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，赌场、休闲和娱乐股票受到的打击最大。当然，这些是在这样的环境下最先被击中的。新的旅行限制措施已经出台，未来几周我们很可能会看到更多限制措施。正如我们在纽约看到的那样，到目前为止，在采取缓解措施方面几乎没有犹豫。油价和能源需求预测受到打击，增加了压力。</blockquote></p><p> No major changes in the communication services sector. We’re still seeing weakness throughout, including the social media stocks, which continue to have a hard time reversing sentiment. The traditional telecoms were virtually changed this past week and could actually become a source of support should prices continue falling here.</p><p><blockquote>通信服务部门没有重大变化。我们仍然看到了整个市场的疲软，包括社交媒体股，它们仍然很难扭转市场情绪。传统电信公司在过去一周实际上发生了变化，如果价格继续下跌，传统电信公司实际上可能会成为支撑来源。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04029e09b601d3f39d2cfc0be349d00\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Oil prices got hammered last week, which led to 5-6% losses for the explorers and servicers. The broader energy sector did comparatively better, but even clean energy posted a loss of 4% indicating little support across the board. Short-term sentiment for this sector has largely disappeared and the huge returns of earlier this year have long since been forgotten. This will be an especially omicron-dependent sector this week, so expect some above average volatility. Flow numbers show that investors are abandoning ship.</p><p><blockquote>上周油价受到打击，导致勘探商和服务商损失5-6%。更广泛的能源行业表现相对较好，但即使是清洁能源也下跌了 4%，表明全面支持率不高。该行业的短期情绪已基本消失，今年早些时候的巨额回报早已被遗忘。本周这将是一个特别依赖奥密克戎的行业，因此预计波动性将高于平均水平。流量数据显示投资者正在放弃 ship。</blockquote></p><p> Just like the leisure sector, the airlines are especially weak here, but there’s really no group within the cyclicals that’s doing OK. The gold & silver miners had a moment in the sun, but with gold prices appearing to have lost their momentum again, they’ve been back on the downswing. Infrastructure stock returns have largely been a function of the passage of the infrastructure bill, but that momentum it also likely to begin fading.</p><p><blockquote>就像休闲行业一样，航空公司在这里尤其疲软，但在周期性行业中，确实没有哪个行业表现不错。金银矿商曾一度风光无限，但随着金价似乎再次失去动力，他们又回到了下行状态。基础设施股票回报率在很大程度上取决于基础设施法案的通过，但这种势头也可能开始消退。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d74ecebe8c9240855b76ea5a23034f4\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Healthcare is starting to look a little, well, healthier again. Most of it looks like it’s due to its defensive sector peers starting to draw a little interest again, but any kind of health-related headlines, such as a new COVID variant, tend to produce at least a modest short-term bounce. Both Moderna and BioNTech, the makers of different COVID vaccines, were both up more than 20% last week alone and that’s making the biotech sector look a little stronger than it is. The <b>SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)</b>, which equal weights the sector and gives much less weight to those names, was down 4% last week. There is some money moving back into this space, but I don’t think it’s a compelling move just yet.</p><p><blockquote>医疗保健开始看起来又健康了一点。这主要是因为其防御性行业的同行开始再次引起一些兴趣，但任何与健康相关的头条新闻，如一种新的 COVID 变种，往往至少会产生适度的短期反弹。不同 COVID 疫苗的制造商 Moderna 和 BioNTech 仅上周就上涨了 20% 以上，这使得生物技术板块看起来比实际情况要强一些。这个<b>SPDR 标准普尔生物技术 ETF (XBI)</b>该指数对该行业的权重相同，但对这些名称的权重要低得多，上周下跌了 4%。有一些资金正在重新进入这个领域，但我认为这还不是一个引人注目的举动。</blockquote></p><p> Not much doing on the commodities side. Crude and gasoline prices have plummeted, but natural gas prices have held their ground. I suspect that there’s some mean reversion in energy prices following Friday’s overreaction. The dollar remains very strong against the basket of global currencies although we’ll have to see if the omicron variant impacts that. Its strength has come on the back of comparatively higher interest rates and better economic growth readings. The plans for tapering and rate hikes may be pushed back now, which could bring the dollar back down.</p><p><blockquote>在大宗商品方面没有太多作为。原油和汽油价格暴跌，但天然气价格保持稳定。我怀疑，在周五的过度反应之后，能源价格出现了一定程度的回升。美元兑一篮子全球货币依然非常强势，不过我们还得看看奥密克戎的变体是否会对此产生影响。其实力得益于相对较高的利率和更好的经济增长数据。缩减规模和加息计划现在可能会被推迟，这可能会导致美元再次下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Omicron The Catalyst That Ushers In The Next Bear Market?<blockquote>奥密克戎是迎来下一个熊市的催化剂吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Omicron The Catalyst That Ushers In The Next Bear Market?<blockquote>奥密克戎是迎来下一个熊市的催化剂吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There’s clearly only topic of conversation for the financial markets this week. The announcement of the omicron variant of the COVID virus put investors into a panic and sent the S&P 500 to its largest single day loss since February and the Russell 2000 to its largest single day loss since June of last year. The reveal of a potentially more mutated and more highly contagious version of both the original COVID strain and the delta variant brought investors back to the early days of the pandemic when businesses, schools and other groups were suddenly forced to shut down.</p><p><blockquote>本周金融市场显然只有一个话题。新冠病毒 omicron 变种的宣布让投资者陷入恐慌，并导致标普500指数创下 2 月份以来最大单日跌幅，罗素 2000 指数创下去年 6 月份以来最大单日跌幅。原始新冠病毒毒株和德尔塔变异毒株病毒的潜在变异更大、传染性更强的版本的披露，让投资者回到了疫情早期，当时企业、学校和其他团体突然被迫关闭。</blockquote></p><p> Is it going to be as big of a deal as the markets fear it might be? It’s too early to know for sure (although the South African Medical Association seems to be downplaying the severity of it), but global governments appear to be taking no chances. Several countries have shut down their borders to people from South Africa and neighboring countries. New York has already declared a state of emergency despite no reported cases of the omicron variant. Of course, there’s still much to learn about the risk level of this COVID strain, but it’s clear that nerves are a bit frayed.</p><p><blockquote>它会像市场担心的那样成为一件大事吗？现在下结论还为时过早（尽管南非医学协会似乎淡化了病情的严重性），但全球各国政府似乎并没有冒险。几个国家已经对来自南非和邻国的人关闭了边境。尽管没有奥密克戎变种病例的报告，纽约已经宣布进入紧急状态。当然，关于这种 COVID 菌株的风险水平，还有很多需要了解的地方，但很明显，人们的神经有点紧张。</blockquote></p><p> In my opinion, Friday’s sharp equity pullback looks like a classic overreaction. Yes, there’s a distinct possibility that it may not be the bottom and equities could sell off further, but given how investors have been prolific dip buyers over the past year and expectations for the taper and future interest rate hikes turned immediately dovish, per the Fed Funds futures market, I think investors will quickly conclude that the omicron variant will likely not be as bad as anticipated and, even if it is, the Fed will quickly step in, whether it’s via a delayed taper or no rate hike until 2023, to support risk asset prices. If I’m going out on a limb, I think there’s a chance the S&P 500 could recapture its all-time high (it’s currently about 2.3% below it) by the end of this week.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，周五股市的大幅回调看起来像是典型的过度反应。是的，很有可能不是底部，股市可能会进一步抛售，但鉴于投资者在过去一年中一直是多产的逢低买家，而且根据联邦基金期货市场的数据，对缩减规模和未来加息的预期立即转为鸽派，我认为投资者很快就会得出结论，奥密克戎变体可能不会像预期的那样糟糕，即使是，美联储也会迅速介入，无论是通过推迟缩减规模还是在 2023 年之前不加息，以支撑风险资产价格。如果我要冒险的话，我认为标普500有可能在本周末重新夺回历史高点（目前比历史高点低约 2.3%）。</blockquote></p><p> Market internals had already been softening leading up to last week. Breadth within the Nasdaq 100 has been getting weaker - 30 of the 100 components have pulled back at least 20%. Small-caps have been underperforming for weeks and leadership has rotated away from cyclicals and back into tech and consumer discretionary. Treasuries are looking strong again and even gold has been seeing some action.</p><p><blockquote>直到上周，市场内部因素已经在走软。纳斯达克 100 指数内的广度一直在减弱 - 100 个组成部分中有 30 个已回调至少 20%。小盘股几周来表现不佳，领导层已从周期性股票转向科技股和非必需消费品。美国国债看起来再次走强，甚至黄金也出现了一些波动。</blockquote></p><p> Fear is high in the markets right now and that presents opportunity. Keep a level head and watch for panic signs (e.g. the number of articles talking about how stocks could pull back 30% from here) and words from the Fed that hint at what the central bank might do. Remember, in 2020 after the initial bear market, stocks rebounded quickly as soon as the Fed and the government stepped in. If Powell pivots to a more dovish stance, U.S. equities could quickly move higher again.</p><p><blockquote>目前市场上的恐惧情绪很高，这带来了机会。保持冷静，留意恐慌迹象（例如，谈论股市如何从这里回落 30% 的文章数量）以及美联储暗示央行可能采取什么行动的言论。请记住，2020 年，在最初的熊市之后，美联储和政府一介入，股市就迅速反弹。如果鲍威尔转向更加鸽派的立场，美国股市可能会迅速再次走高。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s start our weekly review by taking a look at the primary market sectors.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从一级市场板块开始每周回顾。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87d1ba9c165a777608a551646236565\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, there’s little short-term strength in equities right now. Communication services remains the worst-looking of the 11 major sectors, but cyclicals are not that far behind. Energy stocks were down 4% on Friday as crude oil prices dropped more than 10%, but still managed to gain more than 1% on the week as a whole. Financials are weaker on falling interest rates, but industrials and materials are similarly well off recent highs.</p><p><blockquote>不出所料，目前股市短期走强乏力。通信服务仍然是 11 个主要行业中表现最差的，但周期性行业也紧随其后。能源股周五下跌 4%，原油价格下跌超过 10%，但本周整体仍上涨超过 1%。由于利率下降，金融股走弱，但工业股和材料股同样远离近期高点。</blockquote></p><p> As I mentioned above, tech and consumer discretionary have been the beneficiaries of rotation trades lately. Tech had become a steady outperformer before last week’s correction, while discretionary stocks have gained but remained volatile. Four of the 11 GICS sectors are now trading below their 50-day moving averages, which could be an indication that short-term momentum has run its course and it may be time for defensives to take over.</p><p><blockquote>正如我上面提到的，科技股和非必需消费品最近一直是轮动交易的受益者。在上周回调之前，科技股已稳步跑赢大盘，而非必需类股则有所上涨，但仍波动较大。11 个 GICS 板块中有 4 个目前交易价格低于 50 天移动平均线，这可能表明短期势头已经结束，可能是防御性板块接管的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> The performance of small-caps, Treasuries and cyclicals point to more conservative positioning even before Friday. Utilities and consumer staples did relatively better as expected, but it’s been a while since either group had an extended run. This week will be telling, I think, in determining where investor risk tolerance is really at. If omicron looks like it will keep drawing out people’s fears, there might be room for defensive sectors to perform relatively well. Keep in mind that it’ll be all about business and social restrictions. If the economic impact is limited mostly to the leisure and travel sectors, the longer-term damage could be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>小盘股、国债和周期性股票的表现表明，即使在周五之前，仓位也更加保守。公用事业和必需消费品的表现相对好于预期，但这两个板块都已经有一段时间没有出现长时间的表现了。我认为，本周将决定投资者的风险承受能力到底处于什么水平。如果奥密克戎看起来会继续引发人们的恐惧，那么防御性行业可能会有相对较好的表现。请记住，这一切都与商业和社交限制有关。如果经济影响主要局限于休闲和旅游部门，长期损害可能很小。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbc4d98c13f73357d48d25a67a1ed80e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Short-term strength has fallen pretty much across the board, but with a few exceptions. Semiconductor stocks had a rough week along with the rest of the tech sector, but they remain one of the best performing groups throughout 2021. Homebuilder stocks continue to build on the strength in the housing, which, despite some stops and starts in sales, demand and commodity prices, been pretty consistent.</p><p><blockquote>短期实力几乎全面下降，但也有少数例外。半导体股与科技行业的其他股票一样经历了艰难的一周，但它们仍然是 2021 年表现最好的股票之一。房屋建筑商股票继续建立在房地产的强势基础上，尽管销售、需求和大宗商品价格出现了一些停顿和开始，但房地产市场一直相当稳定。</blockquote></p><p> No surprise that the casino, leisure and recreation stocks are getting hit the hardest. These, of course, are the first to get hit in an environment like this. New travel restrictions are already being put in place and we’re very likely to see even more in the coming weeks. As we’ve seen with New York, there’s been little hesitation so far to put mitigation efforts in place. Oil prices and energy demand forecasts have taken a hit adding to the pressure.</p><p><blockquote>毫不奇怪，赌场、休闲和娱乐股票受到的打击最大。当然，这些是在这样的环境下最先被击中的。新的旅行限制措施已经出台，未来几周我们很可能会看到更多限制措施。正如我们在纽约看到的那样，到目前为止，在采取缓解措施方面几乎没有犹豫。油价和能源需求预测受到打击，增加了压力。</blockquote></p><p> No major changes in the communication services sector. We’re still seeing weakness throughout, including the social media stocks, which continue to have a hard time reversing sentiment. The traditional telecoms were virtually changed this past week and could actually become a source of support should prices continue falling here.</p><p><blockquote>通信服务部门没有重大变化。我们仍然看到了整个市场的疲软，包括社交媒体股，它们仍然很难扭转市场情绪。传统电信公司在过去一周实际上发生了变化，如果价格继续下跌，传统电信公司实际上可能会成为支撑来源。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b04029e09b601d3f39d2cfc0be349d00\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Oil prices got hammered last week, which led to 5-6% losses for the explorers and servicers. The broader energy sector did comparatively better, but even clean energy posted a loss of 4% indicating little support across the board. Short-term sentiment for this sector has largely disappeared and the huge returns of earlier this year have long since been forgotten. This will be an especially omicron-dependent sector this week, so expect some above average volatility. Flow numbers show that investors are abandoning ship.</p><p><blockquote>上周油价受到打击，导致勘探商和服务商损失5-6%。更广泛的能源行业表现相对较好，但即使是清洁能源也下跌了 4%，表明全面支持率不高。该行业的短期情绪已基本消失，今年早些时候的巨额回报早已被遗忘。本周这将是一个特别依赖奥密克戎的行业，因此预计波动性将高于平均水平。流量数据显示投资者正在放弃 ship。</blockquote></p><p> Just like the leisure sector, the airlines are especially weak here, but there’s really no group within the cyclicals that’s doing OK. The gold & silver miners had a moment in the sun, but with gold prices appearing to have lost their momentum again, they’ve been back on the downswing. Infrastructure stock returns have largely been a function of the passage of the infrastructure bill, but that momentum it also likely to begin fading.</p><p><blockquote>就像休闲行业一样，航空公司在这里尤其疲软，但在周期性行业中，确实没有哪个行业表现不错。金银矿商曾一度风光无限，但随着金价似乎再次失去动力，他们又回到了下行状态。基础设施股票回报率在很大程度上取决于基础设施法案的通过，但这种势头也可能开始消退。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d74ecebe8c9240855b76ea5a23034f4\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"958\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Healthcare is starting to look a little, well, healthier again. Most of it looks like it’s due to its defensive sector peers starting to draw a little interest again, but any kind of health-related headlines, such as a new COVID variant, tend to produce at least a modest short-term bounce. Both Moderna and BioNTech, the makers of different COVID vaccines, were both up more than 20% last week alone and that’s making the biotech sector look a little stronger than it is. The <b>SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)</b>, which equal weights the sector and gives much less weight to those names, was down 4% last week. There is some money moving back into this space, but I don’t think it’s a compelling move just yet.</p><p><blockquote>医疗保健开始看起来又健康了一点。这主要是因为其防御性行业的同行开始再次引起一些兴趣，但任何与健康相关的头条新闻，如一种新的 COVID 变种，往往至少会产生适度的短期反弹。不同 COVID 疫苗的制造商 Moderna 和 BioNTech 仅上周就上涨了 20% 以上，这使得生物技术板块看起来比实际情况要强一些。这个<b>SPDR 标准普尔生物技术 ETF (XBI)</b>该指数对该行业的权重相同，但对这些名称的权重要低得多，上周下跌了 4%。有一些资金正在重新进入这个领域，但我认为这还不是一个引人注目的举动。</blockquote></p><p> Not much doing on the commodities side. Crude and gasoline prices have plummeted, but natural gas prices have held their ground. I suspect that there’s some mean reversion in energy prices following Friday’s overreaction. The dollar remains very strong against the basket of global currencies although we’ll have to see if the omicron variant impacts that. Its strength has come on the back of comparatively higher interest rates and better economic growth readings. The plans for tapering and rate hikes may be pushed back now, which could bring the dollar back down.</p><p><blockquote>在大宗商品方面没有太多作为。原油和汽油价格暴跌，但天然气价格保持稳定。我怀疑，在周五的过度反应之后，能源价格出现了一定程度的回升。美元兑一篮子全球货币依然非常强势，不过我们还得看看奥密克戎的变体是否会对此产生影响。其实力得益于相对较高的利率和更好的经济增长数据。缩减规模和加息计划现在可能会被推迟，这可能会导致美元再次下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/is-omicron-catalyst-that-ushers-in-next-bear-market\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/is-omicron-catalyst-that-ushers-in-next-bear-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171526526","content_text":"There’s clearly only topic of conversation for the financial markets this week. The announcement of the omicron variant of the COVID virus put investors into a panic and sent the S&P 500 to its largest single day loss since February and the Russell 2000 to its largest single day loss since June of last year. The reveal of a potentially more mutated and more highly contagious version of both the original COVID strain and the delta variant brought investors back to the early days of the pandemic when businesses, schools and other groups were suddenly forced to shut down.\nIs it going to be as big of a deal as the markets fear it might be? It’s too early to know for sure (although the South African Medical Association seems to be downplaying the severity of it), but global governments appear to be taking no chances. Several countries have shut down their borders to people from South Africa and neighboring countries. New York has already declared a state of emergency despite no reported cases of the omicron variant. Of course, there’s still much to learn about the risk level of this COVID strain, but it’s clear that nerves are a bit frayed.\nIn my opinion, Friday’s sharp equity pullback looks like a classic overreaction. Yes, there’s a distinct possibility that it may not be the bottom and equities could sell off further, but given how investors have been prolific dip buyers over the past year and expectations for the taper and future interest rate hikes turned immediately dovish, per the Fed Funds futures market, I think investors will quickly conclude that the omicron variant will likely not be as bad as anticipated and, even if it is, the Fed will quickly step in, whether it’s via a delayed taper or no rate hike until 2023, to support risk asset prices. If I’m going out on a limb, I think there’s a chance the S&P 500 could recapture its all-time high (it’s currently about 2.3% below it) by the end of this week.\nMarket internals had already been softening leading up to last week. Breadth within the Nasdaq 100 has been getting weaker - 30 of the 100 components have pulled back at least 20%. Small-caps have been underperforming for weeks and leadership has rotated away from cyclicals and back into tech and consumer discretionary. Treasuries are looking strong again and even gold has been seeing some action.\nFear is high in the markets right now and that presents opportunity. Keep a level head and watch for panic signs (e.g. the number of articles talking about how stocks could pull back 30% from here) and words from the Fed that hint at what the central bank might do. Remember, in 2020 after the initial bear market, stocks rebounded quickly as soon as the Fed and the government stepped in. If Powell pivots to a more dovish stance, U.S. equities could quickly move higher again.\nLet’s start our weekly review by taking a look at the primary market sectors.\n\nNot surprisingly, there’s little short-term strength in equities right now. Communication services remains the worst-looking of the 11 major sectors, but cyclicals are not that far behind. Energy stocks were down 4% on Friday as crude oil prices dropped more than 10%, but still managed to gain more than 1% on the week as a whole. Financials are weaker on falling interest rates, but industrials and materials are similarly well off recent highs.\nAs I mentioned above, tech and consumer discretionary have been the beneficiaries of rotation trades lately. Tech had become a steady outperformer before last week’s correction, while discretionary stocks have gained but remained volatile. Four of the 11 GICS sectors are now trading below their 50-day moving averages, which could be an indication that short-term momentum has run its course and it may be time for defensives to take over.\nThe performance of small-caps, Treasuries and cyclicals point to more conservative positioning even before Friday. Utilities and consumer staples did relatively better as expected, but it’s been a while since either group had an extended run. This week will be telling, I think, in determining where investor risk tolerance is really at. If omicron looks like it will keep drawing out people’s fears, there might be room for defensive sectors to perform relatively well. Keep in mind that it’ll be all about business and social restrictions. If the economic impact is limited mostly to the leisure and travel sectors, the longer-term damage could be minimal.\n\nShort-term strength has fallen pretty much across the board, but with a few exceptions. Semiconductor stocks had a rough week along with the rest of the tech sector, but they remain one of the best performing groups throughout 2021. Homebuilder stocks continue to build on the strength in the housing, which, despite some stops and starts in sales, demand and commodity prices, been pretty consistent.\nNo surprise that the casino, leisure and recreation stocks are getting hit the hardest. These, of course, are the first to get hit in an environment like this. New travel restrictions are already being put in place and we’re very likely to see even more in the coming weeks. As we’ve seen with New York, there’s been little hesitation so far to put mitigation efforts in place. Oil prices and energy demand forecasts have taken a hit adding to the pressure.\nNo major changes in the communication services sector. We’re still seeing weakness throughout, including the social media stocks, which continue to have a hard time reversing sentiment. The traditional telecoms were virtually changed this past week and could actually become a source of support should prices continue falling here.\n\nOil prices got hammered last week, which led to 5-6% losses for the explorers and servicers. The broader energy sector did comparatively better, but even clean energy posted a loss of 4% indicating little support across the board. Short-term sentiment for this sector has largely disappeared and the huge returns of earlier this year have long since been forgotten. This will be an especially omicron-dependent sector this week, so expect some above average volatility. Flow numbers show that investors are abandoning ship.\nJust like the leisure sector, the airlines are especially weak here, but there’s really no group within the cyclicals that’s doing OK. The gold & silver miners had a moment in the sun, but with gold prices appearing to have lost their momentum again, they’ve been back on the downswing. Infrastructure stock returns have largely been a function of the passage of the infrastructure bill, but that momentum it also likely to begin fading.\n\nHealthcare is starting to look a little, well, healthier again. Most of it looks like it’s due to its defensive sector peers starting to draw a little interest again, but any kind of health-related headlines, such as a new COVID variant, tend to produce at least a modest short-term bounce. Both Moderna and BioNTech, the makers of different COVID vaccines, were both up more than 20% last week alone and that’s making the biotech sector look a little stronger than it is. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which equal weights the sector and gives much less weight to those names, was down 4% last week. There is some money moving back into this space, but I don’t think it’s a compelling move just yet.\nNot much doing on the commodities side. Crude and gasoline prices have plummeted, but natural gas prices have held their ground. I suspect that there’s some mean reversion in energy prices following Friday’s overreaction. The dollar remains very strong against the basket of global currencies although we’ll have to see if the omicron variant impacts that. Its strength has come on the back of comparatively higher interest rates and better economic growth readings. The plans for tapering and rate hikes may be pushed back now, which could bring the dollar back down.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":14,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/609145054"}
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